The Darfur Conflict

History, Development and Causes

Sudan Facts

• Size 2.500.000 Km² • Population: 38 Mio. • National Growth: 6,8 %• Rentier state: (oil revenues and foreign remittances)• 65% of national budget for defense sector• Literacy rate (> 15): 60%• Primary education : 46%• Life expectancy: 56 years• Access to potable water: 75%• HIV/AIDS (age 15-49): 2,3%

Sudan/History

Independence 1956 (before British-Egyptian condominium)

Civil wars 1955-1972 and 1983-2005

1969 Nimeiri Coup

1986 Sadiq al-Mahdi

1989 Omar al-Bashir (bloodless coup)

2005 CPA signed ends 20 years of civil war

Sudan/Government

• President Omar al-Bashir (since 1989)

• System: authoritarian militarist and islamist regime till 2005.

• National interim government (for 6 years), ruling party NCP, partial autonomy of the South, interim constitution

• Capital Khartum

The Sudan

Other conflict areas

• The three areas

• East Sudan

• North-South conflict may erupt again (recent pull-out of SPLM from GONU, lacking implementation of CPA, possible scenario is separation of South/referendum 2011).

Film

• http://www.hrw.org/video/2004/sudan/index2.html

Darfur

Darfur: some facts

• Roughly the size of France

• Arabic is the lingua franca

• Population predominantly Muslim

• Three governorates

• 6 Million people

Short historical overview

• Darfur was an independent state ‘till 1916

• Darfur’s Arabs arrived in C14th-18th

• January 1917 Darfur part of British empire

• Assimilated almost peacefully into Sudan

• 1984 famine

• Gadhafi used Darfur as a base to conduct attacks into Chad

Development of the Darfur Conflict

• Scarce resources, marginalisation, and closure of CPA lead to

• Two rebel factions (SLA and JEM) staging rebellion against Khartum in 2003

• Khartum reacts with military and arming of militias (Janjaweed/murahileen).

• Attacks on rebels and civilians

The effects of the war

• 200-300.000 dead (Sudan says 9 000)

• 3,5 Mio affected by the crisis, depending on aid

• 2 Mio IDPs, 250 000 refugees in Chad

• i.e.: almost half of the 6 Mio inhabitants killed, dead or displaced.

Peace Endeavours

• Cease-fire 2004

• Darfur Peace Agreement May 2006

• AU/UN Mediation

• Peace-keeping Mission AMIS

The Negotiators

• Signatory from rebels‘ side (Minni Arko Minnawi)

The Rebels/Non-signatories

The Conflict Types

• State-failure/disintegration

• Governance problems (local governance fails)

• Centre-periphery issues (wealth/power sharing/unequal development)

• Conflict over resources (Water/oil/land)

• Consequence of availability of arms

International Interests

• Lybia

• Ethiopia/Eritrea

• Chad/CAR

• Egypt

• US (security/economic/voters)

• CHINA

• RUSSIA

Where we stand today

• Rebels totally disintegrated, no clear vision, alliance with and against Khartum and each other, no unification before peacetalk in Tripolis

• Criminalisation, banditry and militias, no security• The peace process at the very beginning, cease-

fires are ignored• Humanitarian crisis more or less under control• AMIS not able to support peace

Regional spill-over

Chad and Central African Republic

Refugees (250 000) into Chad and CAR, militias and rebels from both sides across the borders, Chad supporting rebels in Darfur

SPLM pulls out of GONU on Oct. 11th

This might have a major effect on the future of peace talks for Darfur

The Sudanese Context

• Darfur is not unique in Sudan! It epitomises at this stage the inability and lack of political will of the central government to establish Good Governance

• The same kind of counterinsurgency can occur in other regions and has done so before (Nuba Mountains).

German Development Cooperation

• BMZ (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development)

• GTZ (Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Technische Zusammenarbeit)

German Support to SUDAN

No bilateral Development Cooperation with the North.

The following conditions must first be fullfilled:1) Implementation of the CPA2) Peaceful solution of the Darfur conflict

3) Human Rights, Democratisation and Development

Orientation

Development Cooperation with GOSS

• Two sectors: Water and Governance

• Multi Donour Trust Fund