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Presentation on the Decision and policy Analysis Program (DAPA) of CIAT.
Citation preview
The Decision and Policy Analysis Program
Our visionWe strongly believe in the power of
information for making better decisions about agricultural and natural resource
investments, from the farm- to the global- level.
Numbers. Maps. Graphs. Insights.
Better public and private policies
Our modus operandi
Thematically diverse, united by spatial, economic and institutional analysis
Converting data to information to policy and decision insights
Demand-driven by other CIAT programs and partners needs in Latin America
Eco-efficiency as a guiding principle
Silvia Elena Castaño Enna Diaz Betancourt
Simone Staiger Ana Milena Guerrero Glenn Graham Hyman
Anton Eitzineger
Lilian Patricia Torres
Carlos Nagles Jorge Cardona
Simon Cook
The Oldies
Andy Jarvis Robert Andrade
Natalia Uribe Julián Ramirez
Daniel Jimenez Vanesa Herrera
Nora Castañeda
Mike Salazar
Jhon Ocampo
Hector Favio Tobón
The Youth
Louis Reymondin
Ovidio RiveraElizabeth Barona
Juan Carlos Andrade
Katherin Tehelen
Victor Augusto Lizcano Angelica Ma. Henao Carolina Argote D.
Daniel Amariles
Oriana Carolina Ovalle
And the positively under-age
Emmanuel Zapata
The Peter Jones Scholarship for Agricultural Informatics
Blade
Arreglo de disco
Arreglo de disco
Alternate servers
Array disk
Our themes
• Output 1: Impact assessment for targeting, documenting and increasing the effectiveness of research and development
• Output 2: Policy guidelines, tools and innovations for managing ecosystem services to the benefit of the rural poor
• Output 3: Estimated impacts of climate change on agricultural systems, and identification of adaptation pathways for the rural poor
• Output 4: Policy guidelines and innovations to ensure pro-poor and equitable supply chains in the face of a highly dynamic world
Impact assessment and targetting
• Institutional house for impact assessment: quantifying and communicating our impact– Large-scale, multi-country, and beyond adoption
• Impact mapping: where and how to work?– For research and development
• Facilitating Impact Team (FIT): methods for maximising our impact through participatory methods
Targeting Cassava Pest and Disease Problems
Climate change
EnvironmentCharacterization
Facilitating Impact Team (FIT)
To improve the engagement processes and socialization mechanisms of CIAT’s research with their stakeholders throughout the project cycle and contribute to scaling out and up of research outputs.
– Increase the effectiveness of research and development activities through the use of knowledge sharing principles, tools, methods and monitoring methodologies.
Theme 2 - Ecosystem Services
CIAT’s work on Ecosystem services
• ES that have a national, regional or international market– Aboveground carbon– Water
• Putting the numbers on ES flows in an integrated manner (social, biophysical, and economic benefits)
• Learning from broad range of cases• Enabling the poor to engage and benefit
from emerging ES market opportunities
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Conservado Uso actual (con política
ambiental)
Uso fuera parque (sin política ambiental)
US
$/ha
/año
Valor de produccion agropecuaria
Costo total por erosión
Opportunity Costs through economic modelling
Costos de oportunidad en el espacio
Precio medio Precio maximo
Costo de oportunidad por t/CO2
Climate change
• Putting the numbers on impact: locally, regionally and globally
• Evaluating adaptation measures through scenario analysis at multiple levels– Policies (e.g. weather-index insurance)– Technologies (e.g. crop improvement)– Practices (e.g. use of shade crops)
• Influencing policy through clear messages delivered to the right people
Bases de Datos
• 18 modelos para 2050, 9 para 2020• Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit• Downscaled usando metodos estadisticos
http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/home.html
Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints
Grey areas are the crop’s main niche.
Blue areas constrained by precipitation
Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments
Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
…….and for Latin America?Drought or flooding tolerance
30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance
1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint
2.23m Ha of current production
2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5%
Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos
Cam
bio
en
áre
as a
dap
tab
les
[>80
%]
(%)
Áreas cultivadas
Áreas no-cultivadas
Total áreasadaptables
Toleracia a sequias
Toleracia a inundación
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-2.5% -2% -1.5% -1% -0.5% None +0.5% +1% +1.5% +2% +2.5%
Mejora en la resiliencia de los cultivos
Cam
bio
en
áre
as a
dap
tab
les
[>80
%]
(%)
Áreas cultivadas
Áreas no-cultivadas
Total áreasadaptables
Toleracia a sequias
Toleracia a inundación
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Ropmin Ropmax Not benefited
Áre
as b
enef
icia
das
(m
illi
ón
de
hec
táre
as)
Áreas cultivadas actualmente
Áreas no-cultivadasactualmente
…….and for Latin America?Heat or cold tolerance
27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance
2.23m Ha of current production
2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC
Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo
Cam
bio
en
áre
as a
dap
tab
les
[>80
%]
(%)
Áreas cultivadas
Áreas no-cultivadas
Total áreas adaptables
Toleracia al calor
Toleracia al frío
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2.5ºC -2ºC -1.5ºC -1ºC -0.5ºC None +0.5ºC +1ºC +1.5ºC +2ºC +2.5ºC
Mejoramiento en la resiliencia del cultivo
Cam
bio
en
áre
as a
dap
tab
les
[>80
%]
(%)
Áreas cultivadas
Áreas no-cultivadas
Total áreas adaptables
Toleracia al calor
Toleracia al frío
0
1
1
2
2
3
Topmin Topmax Not benefited
Áre
as b
enef
icia
das
(m
illó
n d
e h
ectá
reas
) Áreas cultivadas actualmente
Áreas no-cultivadasactualmente
BIG markets and BIG market opportunities
What public and private policies and organisational arrangements are needed for the poor to benefit from international markets in a globalised world?
Effective and sustained farm to market links require three components:
1.Farmers that are attractive partners for market actors
2.Market actors willing to invest in working with small producers
3.An effective enabling environment to support / govern these links
Enabling environment
(public / donor policies)
Willing buyers (private sector policies)
Capable farmers (skills, capacity &
organization)
Science for impact: Linking Farmers to Markets
New business models for sustained trading relationships
Lear
ning
allia
nces
publ
ic se
ctor
Learning alliances
with NGOs
Action research & incidence