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The introductory presentation used to train people in the "Art of Inference". Join the William\'s Inference Service group to learn more.
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Discovery, Insight, Intelligence
1:30 pm Welcome and Introductions1. Collecting anomalies - the foundation of inference
- What to collect - defining the characteristics of useful anomalies.- How to observe anomalies while scanning the business environment.
2. Group work sessions – In groups of 3 to 5 we will investigate a selection of current Williams themes in depth.
3 – 3.20 pm Afternoon Tea/Coffee1. Weaving – Groups practice pulling the pieces together and drawing
inferences- Finding the context of change – careful use of historical perspective- The use of symbols- The use of research (uncovering the unintended message)
2. Using discoveries3. Questions/Discussion
4:30 pm Adjourn
Using anomalies and surprises as a filter for information gathering
Inferring from a limited data set and recognizing patterns of change
Monitoring, testing and strengthening hypotheses using targeted research
Understanding symbolic power
Using discovery in business and investment decisions
Anomalies Symbols Color and Myth Inferences Anecdotes
“It is not what you look at, but rather what you see.”Henry David Thoreau
Danger and Opportunity The “new” has no experts Old knowledge can be a hindrance Minimize the data so decisions are more
accurate
Superlatives – biggest, most, largest, fastest, slowest, etc.
Surprises – growth more than 20%, outpacing a leader, unintended messages
Firsts – the beginning of change.
Lies and deceit – strengthen significance
Incongruencies – “The empty parking lot” and “The dog that did not bark”
Myth as public dreams
Color choices Negative impression
– i.e. not what we have, but rather what we would like to have
Led by anomaly and symbol Observations in one instance can be
extrapolated to a larger cultural significance Important to stimulate creative response to
an inference Emerge from discussion and relationships
Making hypotheses beyond cause/effect relationships
Inclusive of an awareness of the relative danger/opportunity
Need a broad perspective, yet a specific lens (limited data set)
Early warning, predictive, but not timed Corollaries often surface with time
Decisions and Awareness
•More information does not always make better decisions•Inferential thinking is a means to see through the clutter of information overload•Try to use only a few pieces of information to make key decisions•Base decisions on inferences rather than history alone•History is useful in the development of the “gut feeling”
•Inferential training helps professionals gain sufficient confidence to achieve accuracy ahead of the curve
•Inference provides a information needed to monitor the business environment
Intelligence Unintended messages
looking for an insight Design An insight looking for
options Choice Selecting an option and
taking action Review Monitoring the process for
added value