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The 2015 Reno/SparksResidential Resale
Market Report
Dave HansenPresident
Reno/Sparks Association of REALTORS®Coldwell Banker Select Real Estate
www.rsar.net
A Little History First
• Let’s look at the NAR data and then• Let’s look at the local data
• Some charts will be similar, but there are differences
Homeowner Households from 2010 (Decreased by 1 million)
In thousands
Renter Households from 2010(Increased by 4 million)
In thousands
Nationwide Home Price Recovery(Almost Doubled over 20 years)
FHFA Home Price Index
Local Home Price Recovery
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0ABSORPTION: MONTHS OF
UNSOLD INVENTORY
BALANCED MARKET
30-year Mortgage Rates
Value Is Again Supported By Sales
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800# Listings Sold Median Price
Is It a Seller or Buyer Market?
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0ABSORPTION: MONTHS OF
UNSOLD INVENTORY
BALANCED MARKET
Market Rate Steady, Price Changes
Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700# Listings Sold Median Price
Almost Constant Sales Appetite
0200400600800
1000120014001600180020002200
SalesTOTALS
Net ActiveTOTALS
SALES VS ACTIVE IN-VENTORY
Reno/Sparks Median Prices
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000 Recent Median Price TrendingSingle Family Homes
New Listings Are Bouncing Back
100200300400500600700800900
1000New Listing TOTALS
New Pendings Are Down
0100200300400500600700800900 New Pending TOTALS
Active Listings
Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-150
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500Net Active Listings TOTALS
Just who are these buyers?
• The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) creates a survey of buyers and sellers every year and we have pulled some interesting details out of these reports
Reason for New vs. Resale Home2013 2014
New Home 16% 16%
Avoid renovations or problems with plumbing or electricity 32 40
Ability to choose and customize design features 25 24
Amenities of new home construction communities 14 17
Lack of inventory of previously owned homes 10 10
Green/energy efficiency 6 9
Previously Owned Home 84%
Better price 30% 32
Better overall value 28 32
More charm and character 17 19
Lack of inventory of new homes 9 9
Distressed Sales Disappearing
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-150.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
NONE%
SHORTSALES%
REO%
The Sales Mix - 2013 - 2014
Shrinking Shadow Inventory(but not in CT, NY, NJ)
2013 Distressed Sales
None Short Sales REO0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500None; 3943
Short Sales; 1498
REO; 402
2013 Special Conditions Home Sales Mix
2014 Distressed Sales
None Short Sales REO-500
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
None, 4711
Short Sale, 569
REO, 333
2014
Where is our Shadow Inventory
• NOD = Notice of Default– Prospect for a short sale
• NOS = Notice of Sale– Going to Auction
• REO = Bank Owned– Sale at discretion of “Asset Managers”
383 Bank Owned Properties Not Currently For SaleGreater Reno/Sparks
Data is from RealtyTrac January 2015
577 Pre-Foreclosure PropertiesNot Currently For SaleGreater Reno/Sparks
Data is from RealtyTrac January 2015
150 Properties Going to AuctionNot Currently For SaleGreater Reno/Sparks
Data is from RealtyTrac January 2015
New Jobs Are On Coming!
Jobs are coming to our area
• EDAWN brings over 2000 jobs in 2014• Tesla will bring 6500 primary jobs
– And up to 10,000 secondary jobs• Defeat of Margin Tax removes stumbling block• Unemployment falls to close to 6%• Nevada Governor’s Economic Development
– GOED is bringing more jobs to our area
NV Jobs in Tourism & Gaming
Data from GOED
NV Jobs in Aerospace & Defense
Data from GOED
Nevada Jobs in Energy
Data from GOED
NV Jobs in Information Technology
Data from GOED
NV Jobs in Logistics & Operations
Data from GOED
NV Jobs in Manufacturing
Data from GOED
It pays to be different
• In the past we have evaluated affordability for the entire region.
• Home owners with different incomes are attracted to different areas.
• Here are some areas selected for continued population growth.
Affordable House Defined
• Used the median income for each Zip Code
• Used PITI and 28% Mortgage Debt to Gross Income
• Interest was increased by 1% for end of 2015
• The Washoe medium income in 2014 was $53,994.
Population 25,400 25,700
Homes Sales in 2014 = 370
Est. Shadow Inventory = 198
89434 Sparks East and Foothills
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $199,000 $208,600• Median Household Income$55,788• Affordable House Value $267,668 $238,309
• January 2015 Inventory 30• Homes below $267,668 11• Homes below $259,000* 9
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 37,400 39,500
Homes Sales in 2014 = 886
Est. Shadow Inventory = 70
89436 Sparks Suburban & Spanish Springs
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $260,000 $270,000• Median Household Income $79,216• Affordable House Value $380,074 $338,309
• January 2015 Inventory 104• Homes below $380,074 87• Homes below $259,000* 22
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 42,400 43,800
Homes Sales in 2014 = 652
Est. Shadow Inventory = 10
89506 Reno North Valleys & Stead
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $172,000 $181,400• Median Household Income $57,496• Affordable House Value $275,862 $245,605
• January 2015 Inventory 43• Homes below $275,862 29• Homes below $259,000* 27
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 25,900 26,400
Homes Sales in 2014 = 434
Est. Shadow Inventory = 9
89511 Old Southwest Suburban
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $475,000 $489,100• Median Household Income $92,166• Affordable House Value $442,207 $393,705
• January 2015 Inventory 153• Homes below $442,207 11• Homes below $259,000* 2
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 24,400 26,200
Homes Sales in 2014 = 620
Est. Shadow Inventory = 21
89521 Reno South Meadows
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $286,000 $294,000• Median Household Income $72,900• Affordable House Value $349,770 $311,406
• January 2015 Inventory 93• Homes below $349,770 49• Homes below $259,000* 10
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 33,400 34,300
Population 33,400 34,300
Homes Sales in 2014 = 545
Est. Shadow Inventory = 24
89523 Reno Northwest Suburban
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $280,000 $289,500• Median Household Income $67,952• Affordable House Value $326,030 $290,270
• January 2015 Inventory 90• Homes below $326,030 14• Homes below $259,000* 8
*Washoe County Affordable Home
Population 19,011 20,200
Homes Sales in 2014 = 457
Est. Shadow Inventory = 79
89408 Fernley
2014 2015 est.• Median Home Value $144,000 $150,000• Median Household Income $50,213• Affordable House Value $240,919 $214,494
• January 2015 Inventory 63• Homes below $240,919 49• Homes below $259,000* 53
*Washoe County Affordable Home
The Take Away for 2015
• Median prices increase 5-6% in 2015• Interest rates historically low until midyear
– Should start rising to about 5% by years end• Jobs opportunities will continue to grow• Distressed sales will continue to fall off• Affordability will continue to decline
Thank You
Reno/Sparks Association of REALTORS®5650 Riggins Court, Reno, NV
775-823-8800www.rsar.net
