THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY

BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES

SECOND HALFSeptember 5 –November 30, 2012

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued)

• ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21

• JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25

• KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27

• LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3

• MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4

• NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12

NAMED STORMS IN 2012

• OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4

• PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11

• RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12

• SANDY – Hurricane, Oct. 22

• TONY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 24

• VALERIE

• WILLIAM

The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons:

By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and

Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.

ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26

ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12

LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5

SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED

SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND

CANADA

SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL: FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4

Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of

rapid intensification

MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6

Michael, the 7th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 miles

west-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..

MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6

MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH

On Sept. 7th, the seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone

Energy) (using the 1981-2010 data base), stood at 61,

or 143% of an average season.

BUT---ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012

A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS

EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN

SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN

Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and an

extended season on the Pacific side.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE: SEPT. 12

TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1

HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14th

Because of its location in the Azores, Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season,

did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th

Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not expected to last very long or to cause

any major problems.

TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5

TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th

Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.

TROPICAL STORM PATTY

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12TH

Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th hurricane of the season

HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16

TROPICAL STORM SANDY AKA “FRANKENSTORM” FORMED ON

OCT. 22ND

Sandy, the 19th storm of the season, quickly became a CAT 2 hurricane.

SANDY left 39 dead in the Caribbean enroute to the USA.

TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE

CAPITOL OF JAMACIA

Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas at risk

from flooding were evacuated

FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24

TROPICAL STORM TONY FORMED ON OCT. 24TH

Tony, the 20th storm of the season, formed in the Atlantic, and is not likely

to be a threat

TROPICAL STORM TONY: OCTOBER 24

SANDY: OCTOBER 24

Sandy, now the season’s ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with

wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the storm center,

producing 15-50 cm of rain in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic,

and Cuba

LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON “FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27

• Miami, Florida, which is already water-logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI

SANDY IMPACTS HAVANA. CUBA: OCTOBER 25

SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA

SANDY: RAIN BEGINS IN FT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA; OCT. 26

POSSIBILITIES AFTER “FLORIDA SATURDAY”

• Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic, OR, MORE LIKELY …

• As Sandy moves northward, it could become a powerful “SUPERSTORM causing losses of $ 1 billion dollars + bringing heavy rain, high winds, and power outages along Eastern seaboard

OCEAN CITY, MARYLAND

REHOBOTH BEACH, DELAWARE: OCT. 29

SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT. 29-30, 2012

$360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30

OCT. 29 HIGHLIGHTS: NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY

THE SUDDENNESS AND THE RECORD HEIGHT OF THE STORM SURGE

CAUSED A HUGE DISASTER

STORM SURGE SET NEW RECORD WITHOUT BENEFIT OF FULL-MOON HIGH TIDE

13 ft (4 1/3 m); a new record

Sustained winds of 133 kph (80 mph).

FLOODING IN BROOKLYN

NEW JERSEY: ATLANTIC CITY UNDER WATER

NEW JERSEY: OCEAN FRONT FLOODING

NEW JERSEY: STREET FLOODING

2012 ATLANTIC BASIN STORM TRACKS AS OF NOV. 22

2012’S CUMMULATIVE IMPACTS

320 DEATHS

ECONOMIC LOSSES: ESTIMATED AT $68 BILLION +