TEMA 2 - titulaciongeografia-sevilla.estitulaciongeografia-sevilla.es/contenidos/profesores/materiales/... · Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero Rate by Age

TEMA 2 Los factores de crecimiento. Natalidad y mortalidad.

Crecimiento natural. Movimientos migratorios.

Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero

MAPA DE MORTALIDAD

Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero

MAPA DE NATALIDAD


MAPA DE FERTILIDAD


Map Key

Color Fertility rate Long-term impact

Red less than 2 declining population

Yellow about 2 stable population

Green 3 to 4 growing population

Blue 4 or more rapidly growing population

Gray data not available

TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION


Annual number of deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births

93

133

99

81

21

52

89

48

22

7

World Africa Asia Latin America and the

Caribbean

More Developed Regions

1970-1975 2005-2010

Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

NOTES ON TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION


• In the last three decades, the worldwide rate of death to children under age 1 has dropped by nearly one-half: from 93 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 1970s to 52 deaths at the beginning of the new century.

• The rate of infant mortality varies widely by region. For example, in Africa, the infant mortality rate is 12 times higher than the rate for more developed regions (89 compared with 7).

INFANT MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA


Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period

74 88 92

114 123

163

53 62

76 87

100

116

Eritrea 2002

Madagascar 2003/04

Cameroon 2004

Burkina Faso 2003

Nigeria 2003

Mozambique 2003

Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.

INFANT MORTALITY, NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA



Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.

27

68 74

87

25

44 46

70

Jordan 2002 Morocco 2003/2004 Egypt 2000 Turkmenistan 2000

Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old

INFANT MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA




39 42

53

101 108

20 27

39

88

68

Vietnam 2002

Philippines 2003

Indonesia 2002/2003

Cambodia 2000

Nepal 2001


INFANT MORTALITY, LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN




41 42 52

79

131

31 29 40

65

83

Dominican Republic 2002

Nicaragua 2001

Peru 2000

Bolivia 2003

Haiti 2000


NEONATAL MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA




54 49

40

50

58 62

35 30 31

37

48 42

Ghana 2003

Madagascar 2003/04

Cameroon 2004

Burkina Faso 2003

Nigeria 2003

Mozambique 2003


NEONATAL MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA




27 28 32

45

71

15 16 19

36 40

Vietnam 2002

Philippines 2003

Indonesia 2002/2003

Cambodia 2000

Nepal 2001







TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE


Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

80 87

83 79

76 76 75 72

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020

Net population added per year Annual population growth rate

Mill

ion

s

Perc

ent

incr

ease

per

yea

r

NOTES ON TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE


• This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.

• Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).

• From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.

WORLD POPULATION CLOCK


2005

Natural

Increase per

World

More

Developed

Countries

Less

Developed

Countries

Less

Developed

Countries

(less China)

Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587

Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004

Minute 154 2 151 137

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE, BY COUNTRY


Percent Population Change, 2005-2050

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

THREE CENTRAL MESSAGES OF THE REPORT OF THE SECRETARY-

GENERAL


•International migration is a key component

of the globalization process

•International migration is a positive force for

development, both in countries of origin and

in countries of Destination

•It is possible and advisable to strengthen

international cooperation on international

migration


INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A KEY

COMPONENT OF THE GLOBALIZATION

PROCESS

PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO NORMALLY

PLAY IN OTHER COUNTRIES (“KICKER DRAIN”)


PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO ARE

FOREIGN-BORN (“IMPORT OF NEEDED SKILLS”)


WE ARE IN A NEW MIGRATION ERA


•Since the late 1980s: migration has been rising rapidly…

•…but there is a freer flow of goods and capital than of persons

•Barriers to the movement of lowskilled workers persist

THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS IS

ALMOST EQUALLY DIVIDED INTO THREE TYPES


(Cumulated migrant stock -- Millions of persons)

MIGRATION TO INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES IS MORE

STEADY THAN THAT TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES


(Rate of growth of the migrant stock)

2%

2,90% 3%

0,20%

2,60%

0,50%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

1960-1975 1975-1990 1990-2005

More developed regions without the former USSR

Less developed regions

MIGRANTS CONSTITUTE HIGH PROPORTIONS

OF THE POPULATION IN FEW COUNTRIES


(MIGRANTS AS PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, 2005)

MIGRATION POLICIES


• Migration policies have become somewhat less restrictive

• There is great diversity of policy stances Some countries allow permanent migration selected on the basis of skills or family ties

Many allow temporary admission often under work permits

• There is growing preference for temporary migration schemes

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION POLICIES HAVE

BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS RESTRICTIVE


(Percentage of countries)

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A

POSITIVE FORCE FOR

DEVELOPMENT, BOTH IN

COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN AND IN

COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION


FOR COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION


•There are some adverse but small effects on low-skilled workers

•Most migrants complement local workers and therefore contribute to economic growth

•Growing educational levels and population ageing increase the positive effects of migration

•Migration has additional positive effects on economic growth: entrepreneurship, diverse supply of services, etc.

•Main drawbacks: achieving the mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies is not easy…

•… and irregular migration is not desirable

WITHOUT MIGRATION, THE LABOUR FORCE WOULD

DECLINE DRASTICALLY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES


Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)

IN SOME COUNTRIES, THIS EFFECT WOULD

BE CATASTROPHIC: GERMANY


Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)

FOR COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN


•International migrants are usually not among the poorest persons in communities o origin

•The development of migrant networks lower the risks of migration and may enable poorer persons to migrate

•Remittances increase family welfare but their macroeconomic effects are less clear-cut

•Many benefits stem from a close relation between communities of origin and migrant communities abroad

•eturn migration and circulation permit countries of origin to reap greater benefits from migration

•Main costs: “brain drain”, which may not be necessarily compensated by higher incentives to acquire training in order to migrate

REMITTANCES RECEIVED BY DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES


MIGRANTS WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION AS

PERCENTAGE OF THE INCREASE IN ALL

MIGRANTS AGED 25 OR OVER, 1990-2000


IT IS POSSIBLE AND ADVISABLE TO STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION


MODES OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

REGARDING MIGRATION


•The outcome documents of United Nations conferences and summits

•United Nations Conventions, with varying degree of coverage

•International organizations / Global Migration Group

•Global initiatives

•Regional processes

•Bilateral agreements

STATUS OF RATIFICATION OF INTERNATIONAL

INSTRUMENTS RELATIVE TO INTERNATIONAL

MIGRATION


COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA

FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION


•Ensure the protection of the rights of all migrants and prevent their abuse or exploitation •Co-development as the framework to realize the potential of migration as a force for development: Leveraging the use of remittances

Strengthen ties with migrant communities

•Global concerted approach to the formation of human capital

COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA

FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION


•Mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies

•To combat racism and xenophobia in all their forms

•To channel migration through regular streams on the basis of realistic policies to shape those flows

•Combat crimes of trafficking and smuggling

•To improve the information and evidence base.

A CONSULTATIVE MIGRATION

FORUM IN THE UNITED NATIONS


•To consider all dimensions of the migration process

•To promote coherence in terms of migration and development policies

•It would have a consultative character, with voluntary participation of Member States and room for innovation

•It would respect the right of sovereign States to shape their own migration policies

NÚMERO DE NACIMIENTOS


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

25 países con mayor número de nacimientos por 1.000 habitantes (2005 – 2010)

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/JS-Charts/fert-births_0.htm






FERTILIDAD


http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactive-maps_TF.htm

Note: These maps display estimates of total fertility for all countries of the world as well as probabilistic projections of total fertility, which have been carried out using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). These estimates and projections have been prepared for the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York




Documents

TEMA 2 - titulaciongeografia-sevilla.estitulaciongeografia-sevilla.es/contenidos/profesores/materiales/... · Geografía humana y demografía Juan Luis Suárez de Vivero Rate by Age