Technical Report - Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute · 2018-07-03 · The U.S. Industry Projections data is added into the calculation after establishing models using the combined

Technical ReportJuly 2018

Gardner Industry Trends ModelBy: Michael Hogue | Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

The Gardner Industry Trends Model (GITM) producesstatewide long-term employment projections by major in-dustry. These employment projections serve as drivers forthe Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s (GPI) long-term demo-graphic projections.

The first part of this document provides a basic overviewof the process by which the 2017 GITM projections are de-rived. Subsequent pages show projected statewide em-ployment trends for the years 2016 through 2065. Eachpage provides details for a particular industry (sector), with23 sectors included. The information provided includes abrief description of the sector, historical and projected em-ployment (jobs), absolute and relative rates of employmentgrowth, average rates of growth, and commentary. Datafiles of both the employment and demographic projectionsare available from the GPI website.

GITMObjective andMethods

GITM translates a given set of national employment pro-jections by industry into a corresponding set of Utah em-ployment projections by industry. An advantage of usingcredible national employment projections as drivers is that“big picture” thinking on future trends in retail, healthcare,and other industries are incorporated into the Utah projec-tions.

The projections of GITM are, as the name suggests, bestconsidered as projections of trend employment. The rea-son for this is that the national employment projections onwhich GITM are based are trend projections. Trend employ-ment does not include employment due to the businesscycle — for example, economic expansions or recessions.Consequently, GITM projections will tend to be too highduring periods of recession and too low during periods ofeconomic expansion. For this reason, GITM projections aremost appropriate as long-term, trend, projections.

GITMprojections are created in two basic steps. First, histor-ical relationships between Utah employment and nationalemployment are ascertained and projected into the future.Utah employment is then calculated by applying indepen-dently projected national employment to each projectedUtah-U.S. relationship. GITM considers six Utah-U.S. rela-tionships, yielding six projections, for each sector. Becausecombinations of projections often perform better than in-dividual projections, the average and median projection(computed among thebasic six projections) is also included.A detailed discussion of the relationships is given in a sub-sequent section.

Projected national employment is obtained from a vendorfor the years 2016–2047 and extrapolated by GPI for theyears 2048–2065. Further details on the national projec-tions and themethod used to extrapolate those projectionsare provided in a subsequent section.†

Employment Concept and Data Sources

The employment definition, or “concept”used in GITM in-cludes civilian jobs that are subject to the state’s unemploy-ment insurance program (“covered employment”). It doesnot include the self-employed. Civilian public employmentis collected into two sectors (“Federal Government” and“State and Local Government”); figures provided for othersectors refer to private-sector employment only. This mea-sure of employment is consistent with employment datapublished by the Utah Department ofWorkforce Services.

GITM uses historical Utah and national employment by in-dustry, and projected national employment by industry.The historical Utah data is obtained from the Utah Depart-ment of Workforce Services, while the historical and pro-jected national data is obtained from IHS Global Insight(GI).

GITM provides projections for the following sectors:

• Agriculture• Mining• Utilities• Construction• Manufacturing• Wholesale• Trade• Retail Trade• Transportation andWarehousing

• Information• Finance and Insurance• Real Estate• Professional andTechnical Services

• Management of

Companies andEnterprises

• Administrative andWaste Services

• Educational Services• Health Care• Arts, Entertainment andRecreation

• Accommodations andFood Service

• Other Services• Federal Government• State and LocalGovernment

• Farm†• Military†

Further Details onMethods

The projections labeled in the following graphs and tables(“Growth,”“Growth Rate,”etc.) correspond to the differentUtah-U.S. relationships. Each relationship is defined belowin a sectionwithmatching a name. The“CAAGR”referencedin the tables stands for the compounded annual averagegrowth rate—a summary measure of employment growthover a given period of time.

Relating Utah’s Employment to National Employment

The historical relationships between Utah and national em-ployment are capturedbya set of simplemodels that canbeseen as representing different perspectives on how Utah’semployment moves relative to national employment. Eachmodel yields a unique path of projected employment. Analternative to choosing any onemodel as“best”is to projectemployment from each model, then combine the resultsinto a single projection. We do this using two combinationmethods: the mean and the median. A reference projec-tion is also provided that shows what Utah’s employmentgrowth would look like if it grew at the same rate as thenation. Altogether, there are nine projections: six baseddirectly on models, mean and median projections, and thereference projection.

For each industry, the GPI Executive Team, in consultationwith the Utah Department ofWorkforce Services, selectedone projection from among the eight non-reference projec-tions (six basic projections plus the mean and the median)to serve as the published projection for that industry. In thegraphs that follow, this selected projection is marked withdots; in the corresponding tables, it is marked with a redstar. For 10 out of 23 industries, the selected GPI projectionis either the mean or median projection.

The six models, discussed below, are special cases of themodel:

Yt =α+δt +βX t +ut (1)

where Yt concerns Utah employment (number of jobs, jobgrowth, percentage job growth) in year t , X t concerns U.S.employment (number of jobs, job growth, percentage jobgrowth) in year t , α is a constant, δt is a linear time trend(“drift”), β is the“effect”of a one-unit change in U.S. employ-ment on the expected change in Utah employment, andut is the net effect on Utah employment of all factors otherthan these, called the“disturbance term.” The all-else-equalinterpretation ofβ given above is strictly valid only if the av-erage value of ut is independent of U.S. employment. Suchan interpretation is convenient here, but not necessary forthe forecasting purpose of GITM.

Each of the six models is a variation on the above equationand represents a specific relationship between a Utah em-ployment variable and its U.S. counterpart. These modelsand their practical interpretations are reviewed one by onein the sections below. The section titles serve as labels andare referenced in the pages that follow. For example, page12 shows employment projections for the “TransportationandWarehousing” sector, where a line overlaid with dotsis labeled“Growth with Drift.” This line represents the pro-jection made with the model described under the sectionbelow of the same name. The dots mark that projectionas the one chosen by the GPI Executive Team to be thepublished statewide projection for this sector.

Growth. The Growth model implies that expected Utahemployment growth in the current year is a multiple (β ) ofU.S. employment growth in the same year.

Yt =α+βX t +ut

In this equation Yt is Utah employment (number of jobs)in year t and X t is U.S. employment in the same year. Forexample, if β = 0.02 and U.S. employment growth in year tis 2,500,000 jobs then, according to this model, expectedUtah employment growth is 0.02×2,500,000= 50,000 jobsin year t .

Change in Growth. The Change in Growth model impliesthat the expected change in Utah employment growthfrom last year to the current year is amultiple of the changein U.S. employment growth from last year to the currentyear.

Yt −Yt−1 =α+β�

X t −X t−1

�

+ut

For example, if β = 0.02 and U.S. employment growthchanges from 2,500,000 per year to 2,550,000 per year then,according to thismodel, the expected increase in Utah’s em-ployment growth is 0.02× (2,550,000−2,500,000) = 1,000.If Utah’s employment growth had been 50,000 jobs in the

I N F O R M E D D E C I S I O N S TM 1 gardner.utah.edu

previous year, then the expected growth in the current yearwould be 51,000 jobs.

Growth with Drift. The Growth with Drift model is similarto the Growth model but allows Utah’s expected employ-ment growth to vary by an amount δ from what would beexpected given U.S. employment growth alone.

Yt =α+δt +βX t +ut

For example, if β = 0.02 and δ = 5,000, and U.S. employ-ment growth this year is 2,500,000 jobs then, according tothis model, expected Utah employment growth this year is0.02×2,500,000+5,000= 55,000 jobs.

Change inGrowthwithDrift. The Change in Growth withDrift model is similar to the Change in Growth model butallows Utah’s expected change in employment growth tovary by an amount δ from what would be expected giventhe change in U.S. employment growth alone.

Yt −Yt−1 =α+δt +β�

X t −X t−1

�

+ut

For example, if β = 0.02 and δ = 50, and U.S. employ-ment growth changes from 2,500,000 to 2,550,000 fromlast year to this year then, according to this model, Utah’sexpectedemploymentgrowthwill increaseby50×1+0.02×(2,550,000− 2,500,000) = 50+ 1,000 = 1,050 jobs. If Utah’semployment growth had been 50,000 jobs in the previousyear, then the expected growth in the current year wouldbe 51,050 jobs.

Growth Rate. The Growth Rate model is similar to theGrowth model but concerns percentage employmentgrowth rather than absolute employment growth.

log Yt =α+β log X t +ut

For example, if β = 1.2 and the U.S. employment growthrate is 1.5% then, according to this model, Utah’s expectedemployment growth rate is 1.2×1.5%= 1.8%.

A brief word is in order for the natural logarithm that ap-pears here and below; in particular its connection to per-centage change. The connection hinges on the fact that,for values of x close to 1, log x is close to x − 1. If ∆x isa small change in x (such as the change in employmentfrom one year to the next), then the ratio (x +∆x )/x willbe close to 1. Therefore, log ((x +∆x )/x ) will be close to(x +∆x )/x −1. Using the properties of logarithms, this canbe rephrased as log (x +∆x )− log x will be close to∆x/x— the proportional change in x (100 times this will be thepercentage change in x ).

Change in Growth Rate. The Change in Growth Ratemodel is similar to the Change in Growth model but con-cerns the change in percentage employment growth ratherthan the change in absolute growth.

log Yt − log Yt−1 =α+β�

log X t − log X t−1

�

+ut

For example, if β = 1.2 and U.S. employment growth in-creases from 1.5% to 2.0% then, according to this model,the expected change in Utah’s employment growth rate is1.2×0.5%= 0.6%. If Utah’s employment growth rate hadbeen 1.8% in the previous year, then the expected growthrate in the current year would increase to 2.4%.

Moving from the Short Run to the Long Run. Economictime series very often exhibit the feature that observationsclose in time tend to be close in value. Many of the employ-ment series found on subsequent pages show this kind of“tracking”behavior. This section describes an adjustmentprocedure that accommodates tracking behavior in ut . Animportant consequence of applying this procedure is thatGITM projections adjust toward, rather than jump to, thelong-run behavior described above. Practically, this meansthat there is amuch smoother transition between historicalemployment and projected employment than would havebeen the case without the adjustment. This is importantsince the demographic model that takes GITM projectionsas input works best with smooth inputs.

To describe the adjustment, start with the basic model (1)from above,

Yt =α+δt +βX t +ut

and model ut with the following tracking behavior: ut =φut−1+εt , where εt is a disturbance termwithout trackingand |φ| < 1. The following sequence shows that by trans-forming each variable and (implicitly) ut by f (φ) = 1−φ, amodel is obtained in which the disturbance does not track.

Yt−1 =α+δ (t −1)+βX t−1+ut−1

φYt−1 =φα+φδ (t −1)+φβX t−1+φut−1

Yt −φYt−1 =α�

1−φ�

+δ�

t −φ (t −1)�

+

β�

X t −φX t−1

�

+ εt

(2)

By substituting α̃ = α�

1−φ�

, t̃ = δ�

t −φ (t −1)�

, andX̃ = β�

X t −φX t−1

�

, the last line can be written as: Yt =φYt−1+α̃+δt̃ +β X̃ t +εt , which shows that expected Utahemployment “this year,”given national employment, t , andUtah employment “last year,” is a function of Utah employ-ment “last year.” This also shows that the degree of trackingdepends on the value of φ, with values closer to one im-plying that the part of Utah employment not predictablefrom national employment and time can remain away fromlong-run equilibrium for some time. On the other hand,values of φ close to 0 indicate that convergence to thelong-run equilibrium is immediate, so that no adjustmentis necessary.

If we knew φ, then α, δ, and β could be estimated usingordinary least squares on (2) and the adjustment applied.


In almost all applications, including ours, φ is unknownand must be estimated from data. There are several waysto do this. Our estimates ofφ are based on the method ofmaximum likelihood.

National Projections

The current version of GITM uses GI Trend national projec-tions, of 2017 Q1 vintage. Unfortunately, these 30-yearprojections only extend to 2047, while GITM projectionsmust reach to 2065. We solve this problem simply by ex-trapolating GI growth rates from 2048 through 2065, thenapplying those growth rates to GI 2047 job counts.

The method used to extrapolate growth rates meets twogoals: to capture and continue the trend in GI growth ratesover the period 2011–2047 and to minimize “jump”at thepoint of transition between the GI projections and the ex-trapolated projections. To accomplish this, the exponentialcurve f (t ) =αe−β t is used, whereα is the growth rate in theinitial year and β is the annual proportional change in thegrowth rate. Given the conditions f (0) = r0 and f (S ) = rS ,where r0 is the growth rate in the initial year (0, correspond-ing to 2016) and rS is the growth rate in the final year avail-able from GI (S , corresponding to 2047), these parametersare determined asα= r0 and β = log(rS /r0)

S , so that the curveinterpolating the growth rates in 2016 and 2047 is givenby f (t ) = r0e

− log(rS /r0)S t . Figure 1 illustrates for the case of

Retail Trade. The years before the first red dot are historical,the years between the first and second red dots, labeled“Available,” are years where GI-projected growth rates areprovided by GI, and the years after the second red dot, la-beled “Extrapolated,”are years where growth rates are notprovided by GI and are extrapolated using the approach de-scribed above. The curve connecting the two dots providesthe extrapolated growth rates for the years 2048–2065 (theoriginal GI growth rates are retained for the years wherethey are available, 2016–2047). The growth rates that serveas input to GITM are represented by the solid line.

The results can be inspected by looking at the “reference”projections in the following graphs. The method appearsto work well for most cases. One case where it arguablydoes not work well is Construction. The case of Construc-tion is troublesome because the 2016 growth rate is onlyslightly greater than the 2047 growth rate, resulting in arather flat exponential curve and, consequently, extrapo-lated growth rates that decline only very slowly. The resultof these almost-constant growth rates is that for the years2048–2065 extrapolated/projected national employmentgrowth in the Construction industry is almost exponential.GITM translates this result into a similar pattern for Utah.

Figure 1: Extrapolating National Retail Trade EmploymentGrowth Rates

Available Extrapolated

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

SummaryMeasures of Growth

On the pages that follow we present graphs showing pro-jected employment by industry. One useful way of sum-marizing such growth over time in a single number is thecompounded average annual growth rate (CAAGR), whichis also shown for each projection. The CAAGR shows the an-nual rate of growth sufficient to carry employment from itsbase-year (2015) value to its terminal-year (2065) value. Forexample, if base-year employment is 1,000, terminal-yearemployment is 2,000, and the terminal year is 50 years afterthe base year, then the CAAGR turns out to be 1.4%, mean-ing: If employment starts at 1,000 and each year grows by1.4%, then at the end of 50 years employment will be 2,000.

To be clear about the calculation, if x2015 and x2065 rep-resent employment in years 2015 and 2065, then theCAAGR of employment between those years is computedas (x2065/x2015)

1/(2065−2015)−1.

The CAAGR is not the same as the average of the annualgrowth rates, sometimes called the “usual,”or “arithmetic”average (AAGR). While the AAGR is an appropriate answerto the question —“What is a typical year-over-year growthrate between 2015 and 2065?”— the CAAGR is appropriatefor the question —“What rate of growth, if compoundedeach year, would carry employment from its base-year toterminal-year value?” The answers to these questions aredifferent unless the growth rates are constant. Further, theAAGRgenerally exceeds the CAAGR,with a larger differencethe more volatile the growth rates.


Endnotes

†The data and methods described in this report largelypertain to the civilian nonfarm industries: the 21 of 23industries that exclude Farm and Military. Farm and Mil-itary employment are handled somewhat differently. Forthese two industries, Regional EconomicModels Inc. (REMI),rather than Global Insight, serves as the provider of histor-ical Utah and U.S. data, as well as projected U.S. employ-ment. The REMI projections span the years 2016–2060 andare extrapolated by KCGPI for the years 2061–2065. The his-torical portion of the REMI projections ends in 2014; 2015is projected. With subsequent BEA revisions to the 2014data, there are now sizable differences between currentBEA 2014 and 2015 estimates and the estimates of Militaryemployment shown in this report.


Trends ModelThe Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute uses the Gardner Industry Trend Model as the employment driver for our long-term demographic and economic projections. The model establishes the historical relationship between U.S. and Utah employment for 23 detailed industries and then utilizes expert judgment to choose between nine models (six original, two combinations of these six, and one serving as reference) to arrive at 50-year employment projections. These projections combine with the Utah Demographic and Employment Model (UDEM) to produce population and employment projections for Utah.

Notes:1. U.S. employment history and projections by detailed industry provided by HIS Global Insight.2. Utah employment by detailed industry provided by the Utah Department of Workforce Services.3. The U.S. Industry Projections data is added into the calculation after establishing models using the combined historical Utah-U.S. employment by detailed industry.4. Extrapolations of U.S. employment by detailed industry (2048-2065) calculated by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.5. “Growth” models statistically evaluate changes in the number of jobs, while “Growth Rate” models statistically evaluate percentage changes in the number of jobs. Models without “drift”

estimate a historical relationship between Utah and the U.S. and project that fixed relationship into the future. Models with “drift” allow for the possibility that Utah employment patterns can become more, or less, similar to those of the U.S. over time. The speed of convergence, or divergence, is estimated from historical Utah/U.S. employment data.

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Model Logic

Establish Models Using

Historical Utah and U.S. Employment

Data

Apply U.S. Industry

Projections to Each Model2016-2065

Apply Selected Projection

to Utah Demographics and Economic

Model

U.S. Employment by Detailed

Industry2000-2015

Utah Employment by Detailed

Industry2000-2015

Change in Growth

Growth Rate

(percent)Mean

Growth with Drift

Change in Growth

Rate

U.S Growth Rate

GrowthChange

in Growth with Drift

Median

STEP 1Data Collection

STEP 2Model Identification

STEP 3Model Output:

Utah Projections

STEP 4Select Projection

Select baseline projection using

expert judgement


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Employment

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-100

0

100

200

300

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth Rates

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate

Change in Growth Rate

Growth with Drift

Growth

Change in Growth with Drift

Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are growingcrops, raising animals, harvesting timber, andharvesting fish and other animals from farms,ranches, or the animals’natural habitats.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 2.27

2016–2030Growth Rate -0.47Change in Growth Rate 0.40Growth with Drift 2.59Growth -0.43Change in Growth with Drift 2.53Change in Growth 0.44Mean ? 0.96Median 0.47U.S. 0.65



Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction

Employment

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-40%

-20%

0%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are extract-ing naturally occurring mineral solids, such ascoal and ore; liquid minerals, such as crudepetroleum; and gases, such as natural gas; andbeneficiating (e.g., crushing, screening, wash-ing, and flotation) and other preparation at themine site, or as part of mining activity.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 2.36

2016–2030Growth Rate 2.53Change in Growth Rate 1.90Growth with Drift 1.18Growth 2.79Change in Growth with Drift 0.81Change in Growth 2.48Mean ? 2.00Median 2.21U.S. 1.42

2016–2065Growth Rate 0.66Change in Growth Rate 0.43Growth with Drift -1.95Growth 0.74Change in Growth with Drift -2.73Change in Growth 0.58Mean ? 0.04Median 0.51U.S. 0.33


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Utilities

Employment

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-200

-100

0

100

2000 2020 2040 2060


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median?

U.S.

Industry Description Activities of this sector aregenerating, transmitting, and/or distributingelectricity, gas, steam, and water and removingsewage through a permanent infrastructure oflines, mains, and pipe.About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Median, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -0.83

2016–2030Growth Rate -1.63Change in Growth Rate -1.07Growth with Drift -1.61Growth -1.62Change in Growth with Drift -2.09Change in Growth -0.96Mean -1.49Median ? -1.60U.S. -2.02



Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Construction

Employment

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth

Change in Growth with Drift?

Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description Activities of this sector areerecting buildings and other structures (includ-ing additions); heavy construction other thanbuildings; and alterations, reconstruction, instal-lation, and maintenance and repairs.About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.06

2016–2030Growth Rate 2.47Change in Growth Rate 2.97Growth with Drift 3.72Growth 2.29Change in Growth with Drift ? 3.54Change in Growth 2.64Mean 2.96Median 2.80U.S. 1.91



Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Manufacturing

Employment

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are the me-chanical, physical, or chemical transformationof materials, substances, or components intonew products.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -0.12


2016–2065Growth Rate -0.30Change in Growth Rate -0.10Growth with Drift 1.38Growth -0.29Change in Growth with Drift 1.49Change in Growth -0.01Mean ? 0.52Median -0.06U.S. -0.19


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Wholesale trade

Employment

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau,“Activities of this sector are selling orarranging for the purchase or sale of goods forresale; capital or durable nonconsumer goods;and raw and intermediate materials and sup-plies used in production, and providing servicesincidental to the sale of the merchandise.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.42


2016–2065Growth Rate -0.62Change in Growth Rate -0.50Growth with Drift 0.80Growth -0.61Change in Growth with Drift ? 0.78Change in Growth -0.46Mean 0.00Median -0.48U.S. -0.42


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Retail trade

Employment

160,000

200,000

240,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-8,000

-4,000

0

4,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-6%

-3%

0%

3%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are retailingmerchandise generally in small quantities to thegeneral public and providing services incidentalto the sale of the merchandise.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.21




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Transportation andWarehousing

Employment

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift?

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are pro-viding transportation of passengers and cargo,warehousing and storing goods, scenic andsightseeing transportation, and supportingthese activities.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Growth with Drift, ismarked with dots in the graphs and a star in thelegend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.18

2016–2030Growth Rate 0.59Change in Growth Rate 0.67Growth with Drift ? 1.02Growth 0.58Change in Growth with Drift 0.92Change in Growth 0.65Mean 0.74Median 0.66U.S. 0.55

2016–2065Growth Rate -1.02Change in Growth Rate -0.98Growth with Drift -0.33Growth -1.04Change in Growth with Drift -0.50Change in Growth ? -0.98Mean -0.79Median -0.98U.S. -0.78


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Information

Employment

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5%

0%

5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift?

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau,“Activities of this sector are distribut-ing information and cultural products, provid-ing the means to transmit or distribute theseproducts as data or communications, and pro-cessing data.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Growth with Drift, ismarked with dots in the graphs and a star in thelegend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -0.28

2016–2030Growth Rate -0.19Change in Growth Rate 0.51Growth with Drift ? 2.33Growth -0.20Change in Growth with Drift 0.37Change in Growth 0.47Mean 0.61Median 0.42U.S. 0.62

2016–2065Growth Rate 0.17Change in Growth Rate 0.36Growth with Drift ? 1.80Growth 0.17Change in Growth with Drift 0.19Change in Growth 0.30Mean 0.60Median 0.24U.S. 0.64


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Finance and Insurance

Employment

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-2,000

0

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector involve thecreation, liquidation, or change in ownership offinancial assets (financial transactions) and/orfacilitating financial transactions.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.99




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Employment

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5%

0%

5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are renting,leasing, or otherwise allowing the use of tan-gible or intangible assets (except copyrightedworks), and providing related services.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 2.02

2016–2030Growth Rate -0.03Change in Growth Rate 0.14Growth with Drift 1.54Growth -0.02Change in Growth with Drift ? 1.35Change in Growth 0.14Mean 0.55Median 0.13U.S. 0.13

2016–2065Growth Rate -0.77Change in Growth Rate -0.60Growth with Drift 0.82Growth -0.78Change in Growth with Drift ? 0.70Change in Growth -0.58Mean -0.08Median -0.60U.S. -0.41


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Professional andTechnical Services

Employment

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-3,000

0

3,000

6,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


0%

5%

10%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are perform-ing professional, scientific, and technical ser-vices for the operations of other organizations.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 3.97




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Management of Companies and Enterprises

Employment

10,000

15,000

20,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,000

0

1,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5%

0%

5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median?

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are the hold-ing of securities of companies and enterprises,for the purpose of owning controlling interestor influencing their management decisions, oradministering, overseeing, and managing otherestablishments of the same company or enter-prise and normally undertaking the strategic ororganizational planning and decision-makingrole of the company or enterprise.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Median, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table. The Growth with Drift and Change inGrowth with Drift models led to negative pre-dictions for this sector and so are omitted fromthe graphs, tables, and all calculations.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -1.08

2016–2030Growth Rate 0.21Change in Growth Rate -0.28Growth with Drift NAGrowth 0.19Change in Growth with Drift NAChange in Growth -0.33Mean -0.05Median ? -0.04U.S. -0.49

2016–2065Growth Rate -0.34Change in Growth Rate -0.76Growth with Drift NAGrowth -0.27Change in Growth with Drift NAChange in Growth -0.80Mean -0.53Median ? -0.54U.S. -1.34


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Administrative andWaste Services

Employment

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are perform-ing routine support activities for the day-to-dayoperations of other organizations.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.71




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Educational Services

Employment

50,000

100,000

150,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth?

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are provid-ing instruction and training in a wide variety ofsubjects.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in Growth, ismarked with dots in the graphs and a star in thelegend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 3.35

2016–2030Growth Rate -2.03Change in Growth Rate 3.39Growth with Drift 5.16Growth -2.00Change in Growth with Drift 4.25Change in Growth ? 2.74Mean 2.41Median 3.18U.S. -1.44

2016–2065Growth Rate -1.22Change in Growth Rate 1.47Growth with Drift 2.98Growth -1.28Change in Growth with Drift 2.60Change in Growth ? 1.07Mean 1.51Median 1.31U.S. -0.96


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Health Care and Social Assistance

Employment

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


0%

2%

4%

6%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate

Change in Growth Rate?

Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are provid-ing health care and social assistance for individ-uals.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Change in GrowthRate, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 3.89

2016–2030Growth Rate 2.33Change in Growth Rate ? 2.35Growth with Drift 2.08Growth 2.02Change in Growth with Drift 2.08Change in Growth 2.02Mean 2.15Median 2.06U.S. 1.49

2016–2065Growth Rate 1.25Change in Growth Rate ? 1.26Growth with Drift 1.19Growth 1.05Change in Growth with Drift 1.16Change in Growth 1.05Mean 1.16Median 1.17U.S. 0.80


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Employment

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,000

0

1,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5%

0%

5%

10%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate?


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are oper-ating or providing services to meet varied cul-tural, entertainment, and recreational interestsof their patrons.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Growth Rate, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 2.53

2016–2030Growth Rate ? 1.53Change in Growth Rate 1.02Growth with Drift 1.47Growth 1.36Change in Growth with Drift 1.71Change in Growth 0.99Mean 1.35Median 1.43U.S. 0.94

2016–2065Growth Rate ? 1.65Change in Growth Rate 1.10Growth with Drift 1.35Growth 1.38Change in Growth with Drift 1.46Change in Growth 1.06Mean 1.35Median 1.37U.S. 1.01


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Accommodations and Food Service

Employment

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-2,500

0

2,500

5,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are provid-ing customers with lodging and/or preparingmeals, snacks, and beverages for immediateconsumption.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 2.24




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Other Services, Except Public Administration

Employment

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-5%

0%

5%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean?

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Cen-sus Bureau, “Activities of this sector are provid-ing services not elsewhere specified, includingrepairs, religious activities, grantmaking, advo-cacy, laundry, personal care, death care, andother personal services.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Mean, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.74

2016–2030Growth Rate -0.80Change in Growth Rate -0.58Growth with Drift 0.09Growth -0.76Change in Growth with Drift 0.06Change in Growth -0.54Mean ? -0.41Median -0.56U.S. -0.25

2016–2065Growth Rate -0.59Change in Growth Rate -0.50Growth with Drift 0.16Growth -0.59Change in Growth with Drift 0.13Change in Growth -0.49Mean ? -0.29Median -0.50U.S. -0.22


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Federal Government

Employment

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


-4%

0%

4%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median?

U.S.

IndustryDescriptionActivities in this sectormayinclude those of any private-sector industrygiven elsewhere in this document, but are car-ried out by federal civilian employees.About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case the Median, is markedwith dots in the graphs and a star in the legendand table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 0.44

2016–2030Growth Rate -0.13Change in Growth Rate 0.02Growth with Drift 0.44Growth -0.13Change in Growth with Drift 0.94Change in Growth 0.01Mean 0.20Median ? 0.01U.S. -0.13

2016–2065Growth Rate 0.33Change in Growth Rate 0.50Growth with Drift 0.76Growth 0.38Change in Growth with Drift 1.21Change in Growth 0.51Mean 0.64Median ? 0.51U.S. 0.66


Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065State and Local Government

Employment

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2000 2020 2040 2060


0%

1%

2%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

IndustryDescriptionActivities within this sectormay include those of any private-sector indus-try given elsewhere in this document, but arecarried out by state- and local-government em-ployees.About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrowat the same rate as theU.S.The table belowshows compounded average annual growthrates (CAAGR) for each of these. The projectionchosen as the official statewide projection forthis industry, in this case Change in GrowthwithDrift, is marked with dots in the graphs and astar in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 1.81




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Farm

Employment

10,000

15,000

20,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-1,000

-500

0

500

2000 2020 2040 2060


-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median?

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Bu-reau of Economic Analysis, Farm employmentconsists of “workers engaged in the direct pro-duction of agricultural commodities, either live-stock or crops; whether as a sole proprietor, part-ner, or hired laborer.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,and a reference projection that shows whatUtah employment would look like if it were togrow at the same rate as the U.S.The table below shows compounded averageannual growth rates (CAAGR) for each of these.The projection chosen as the official statewideprojection for this industry, in this case theMedian projection, is marked with dots in thegraphs and a star in the legend and table.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -0.80




Projected Employment and Employment Growth 2016–2065Military

Employment

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2000 2020 2040 2060

Employment Growth

-600

-300

0

300

600

2000 2020 2040 2060


-2%

0%

2%

2000 2020 2040 2060

Constant?

Growth Rate


Growth with Drift

Growth


Change in Growth

Mean

Median

U.S.

Industry Description According to the U.S. Bu-reau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Military em-ployment consists of “personnel assigned to ac-tive duty units that are stationed in the area plusthe number of military reserve unit members.”About the Figures andTable The three figures atleft show historical and projected annual em-ployment (top), employment growth (middle),and rates of employment growth (bottom) foreach of the six models, their mean and median,a reference projection that shows what Utahemployment would look like if it were to growat the same rate as the U.S., and a “constant”projection.The table below shows compounded averageannual growth rates (CAAGR) for each of these.The projection chosen as the official statewideprojection for this industry, in this case the Con-stant projection, is marked with dots in thegraphs and a star in the legend and table.Unlike the other industries, Military includesa projection that is nearly constant (Constant).This projection was chosen under expert judge-ment in amanner similar to that applied tootherindustries.

CAAGR%

2000–20152000–2015 -0.27

2016–2030Constant ? -0.04Growth Rate -0.34Change in Growth Rate -0.31Growth with Drift -0.37Growth -0.33Change in Growth with Drift -0.25Change in Growth -0.31Mean -0.28Median -0.31U.S. -0.51

2016–2065Constant ? 0.00Growth Rate -0.51Change in Growth Rate -0.38Growth with Drift -0.53Growth -0.49Change in Growth with Drift -0.30Change in Growth -0.37Mean -0.36Median -0.39U.S. -0.64


Documents

Technical Report - Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute · 2018-07-03 · The U.S. Industry Projections data is added into the calculation after establishing models using the combined