Economic Report - Kem C. Gardner Policy Institutegardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018-ERG-Report.pdf · Utah Farm Bureau Federation 9865 South State Street Sandy, UT 84070 801‐233‐3004

A collaborative endeavor of the David Eccles School of Business and

Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

2018

Economic Report

to the

GovernorP R E P A R E D B Y T H E

U T A H E C O N O M I C C O U N C I L

Preface

The 2018 Economic Report to the Governor is the 30th publication in this series. Through the last three decades, the Economic Report to the Governor has served as the preeminent source for data, research, and analysis about the Utah economy. It includes a national and state economic overview, a summary of state government economic development activities, an analysis of economic activity based on the standard indicators, and a detailed review of industries and issues of particular interest. The primary goal of the report is to improve the reader’s understanding of the Utah economy. With improved economic literacy, decision makers in the public and private sector will be able to plan, budget, and make policy decisions with an awareness of how their actions are both influenced by and impact economic activity.

Utah Economic Council/Collaboration In addition to the customary review and commentary brought forth by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, the 2018 Economic Report to the Governor will be the fourth to feature a partnership with Utah Economic Council, a joint venture between the Salt Lake Chamber, the David Eccles School of Business, and the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget. The Council aims to guide data development, inform research activities, share economic commentary, provide peer review and support an improved understanding of the Utah economy. The Economic Council and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, as well as additional authors from both the private and public sectors, devote a significant amount of time to the creation of this report, ensuring the latest economic and demographic information is included. More detailed information about the findings in each chapter can be obtained by contacting the authoring entity.

Data Used in This Report The contents of this report come from a multitude of sources which are listed at the bottom of each table and figure. Data are generally for the most recent year or period available. There may be a quarter or

more of lag time before economic data become final, therefore some statistics in this report are estimates based on data available as of mid‐November 2017. Readers should refer to noted sources later in 2018 for final data. Forecasts are also included in some of the tables and figures. All of the data in this report are subject to error arising from a variety of factors, including sampling variability, reporting errors, incomplete coverage, non‐response, imputations, and processing error. If there are questions about the sources, limitations, and appropriate use of the data included in this report, the relevant entity should be contacted.

Data for States and Counties This report focuses on the state, multi‐county, and county geographies. Additional data at the metropolitan, city, and other sub‐county level may be available. For information about data for a different level of geography than shown in this report, the contributing entity should be contacted.

Suggestions and Comments Users of the Economic Report to the Governor are encouraged to write with suggestions that will improve future editions. Suggestions and comments for improving the coverage and presentation of data and quality of research and analysis should be sent to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, 411 East South Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 or by email at [email protected].

Electronic Access This report is available on the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute’s web site at http://gardner.utah.edu.

Authors and Contributors The 2018 Economic Report to the Governor is a collaborative endeavor of the David Eccles School of Business and the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget. Under the guidance of the Utah Economic Council, economists, researchers, and analysts from a variety of entities prepare the Economic Report to the Governor. Utah Economic Council

Phil Dean, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Co‐Chair Juliette Tennert, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Co‐Chair Wes Curtis, Southern Utah University John Gilbert, Utah State University Natalie Gochnour, David Eccles School of Business/Salt Lake Chamber Leslee Katayama, Utah State Tax Commission

Doug MacDonald, EconoWest Thomas Maloney, University of Utah Carrie Mayne, Utah Department of Workforce Services

Darin Mellott, CBRE Kate Rubalcava, Utah Nonprofits Association

Robert Spendlove, Zions Bank David Stringfellow, Office of the Utah State Auditor James A. Wood, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Thomas Young, Utah State Legislature

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute David Eccles School of Business University of Utah 1655 East Campus Center Drive Salt Lake City, UT 84112‐9302 (801) 581‐6333 www.gardner.utah.edu

Pamela S. Perlich Juliette Tennert James A. Wood Angela J. Oh, Editor‐in‐Chief Mallory Bateman DJ Benway, Jr. Cathy Chambless John Downen Annette Harris (Graduate Assistant) Michael Hogue Meredith King

Jennifer Leaver Sara McCormick Dominique Miranda (Business Scholar) Levi Pace G. Thomas Randall (Business Scholar) Joshua Spolsdoff

Chapters: National and Utah Overview, Demographics, Long‐run Projections, Gross Domestic Product by State, Price Inflation and Cost of Living, Social Indicators, Construction, and Tourism and Travel

Governor’s Office of Management and Budget State Capitol Complex 350 North State Street, Suite 150 Salt Lake City, UT 84114‐2210 (801) 538‐1027 www.gomb.utah.gov Phil Dean Peter Donner

Nate Talley Department of Natural Resources—Utah Geological Survey 1594 West North Temple, Suite 3110 Salt Lake City, UT 84114 (801) 537‐3300 www.geology.utah.gov

Ken Krahulec Andrew Rupke Michael Vanden Berg Chapters: Energy and Minerals Department of Workforce Services 140 East 300 South Salt Lake City, UT 84111 (801) 526‐9458 www.jobs.utah.gov

Carrie Mayne Chapter: Employment, Wages, and Labor Force Economic Development Corporation of Utah 201 South Main Street, Suite 2150 Salt Lake City, UT 84111 (801) 328‐8824 www.edcutah.org Matt Hilburn Michael Stachitus Chapter: Economic Development Office of the Utah State Auditor East Office Building, Suite E310 Utah State Capitol Complex Salt Lake City, UT 84114 (801) 538‐1025 www.auditor.utah.gov

David Stringfellow Chapter: Price Inflation and Cost of Living

Utah Farm Bureau Federation 9865 South State Street Sandy, UT 84070 801‐233‐3004 www.utahfarmbureau.org

Sterling C. Brown Chapter: Agriculture Utah Foundation 10 West Broadway, Suite 307 Salt Lake City, UT 84101‐2075 (801) 355‐1400 www.utahfoundation.org Peter Reichard Shawn Teigen Serena Yang Chapter: Regional/National Comparisons Utah Nonprofits Association 231 East 400 South, Suite 345 Salt Lake City, Utah 84111 (801) 596‐1800 www.utahnonprofits.org Madison Keyser Kate Rubalcava Chapter: Nonprofit Sector Utah State Board of Education 250 East 500 South Salt Lake City, UT 84114‐4200 (801) 538‐7500 www.schools.utah.gov

Jaime Barrett Jill Curry Natalie Grange Kirin McInnis

Chapter: Public Education

Utah State Tax Commission 210 North 1950 West Salt Lake City, UT 84134‐3310 (801) 297‐3900 www.tax.utah.gov Eric Cropper Leslee Katayama Chapters: Utah Taxable Sales and State Tax Collections Utah System of Higher Education Board of Regents Building at The Gateway 60 South 400 West Salt Lake City, UT 84101‐1284 (801) 321‐7121 www.higheredutah.org

Joseph Curtin Melanie Heath Chapter: Higher Education World Trade Center Utah 60 South Temple #300 Salt Lake City, UT 84111 (801) 532‐8080 www.wtcutah.com Jim Porter Don Willie Chapter: Exports Zions Bank One South Main Street Salt Lake City, UT 84133 (801) 844‐7000 www.zionsbank.com Joseph Mayans Robert Spendlove Chapter: Personal Income

Box Elder

Cache Rich

Weber

Tooele

Salt Lake

Morgan

SummitDaggett

Utah

WasatchDuchesne

Uintah

Juab

Sanpete

Carbon

Emery Grand

Millard

Piute

Garfield

Sevier

Wayne

San Juan

Iron

Beaver

Kane

Davis

Washington

Southwestern

Southeastern

Uintah Basin

Central

Wasatch Front

Bear River

Mountainland

Box Elder

Cache Rich

Weber

Tooele

Salt Lake

Morgan

SummitDaggett

Utah

WasatchDuchesne

Uintah

Juab

Sanpete

Carbon

Emery Grand

Millard

Piute

Garfield

Sevier

Wayne

San Juan

Iron

Beaver

Kane

Davis

Washington

Southwestern

Southeastern

Uintah Basin

Central

Wasatch Front

Bear River

Mountainland

Table of Contents

National and Utah Overview ...................................................................................................... 1

Economic Indicators 1. Demographics .....................................................................................................................................................3

2. Long‐run Projections ........................................................................................................................................ 25

3. Employment, Wages, and Labor Force ............................................................................................................ 31

4. Personal Income .............................................................................................................................................. 37

5. Gross Domestic Product by State ..................................................................................................................... 43

6. Utah Taxable Sales ........................................................................................................................................... 47

7. State Tax Collections ........................................................................................................................................ 53

8. Exports ............................................................................................................................................................. 59

9. Price Inflation and Cost of Living ...................................................................................................................... 67

10. Regional/National Comparison ........................................................................................................................ 71

11. Social Indicators ............................................................................................................................................... 77

12. Economic Development ................................................................................................................................... 81

Industry Focus 13. Public Education .............................................................................................................................................. 85

14. Higher Education ............................................................................................................................................. 99

15. Agriculture ..................................................................................................................................................... 115

16. Construction .................................................................................................................................................. 119

17. Energy ............................................................................................................................................................ 125

18. Minerals ......................................................................................................................................................... 137

19. Tourism and Travel ........................................................................................................................................ 141

20. Nonprofit Sector ............................................................................................................................................ 145

Figures

Demographics

1.1 State of Utah Components of Population Change ............................................................................................5

1.2 Utah Population Growth by County: 2016 to 2017 ..........................................................................................5

1.3 Utah Population & Growth Projections by Decade: 2015‐2065 ......................................................................6

1.4 U.S. Dependency Ratios: 1970‐2060 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………6

1.5 Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970‐2060………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………….7

1.6 Natural Increase Annual rate of Change: July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016… ……………………………………………………….7

1.7 Total Fertility for Utah and the United States…………………………………… ……………………………………………….……… 8

Long‐run Projections

2.1 Utah Population Pyramid: 1960, 2015, & 2065 ............................................................................................. 27

2.2 Absolute Population Change by County: 2015 to 2065 ................................................................................. 27

Employment, Wages, and Labor Force 3.1 Annual Average Job Growth Rate for Utah and the United States ................................................................ 32 3.2 Annual Unemployment Rate for Utah and the United States ....................................................................... 32 3.3 Annual Average Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth ............................................................................. 33 3.4 Labor Force Participation by Age Group……………………………………………………… …………………………………………… 33

Personal Income

4.1 Utah Per Capita Income as Percent of U.S. Per Capita Income ..................................................................... 39

4.2 Utah vs. U.S. Total Personal Income Growth ................................................................................................. 39

Gross Domestic Product by State

5.1 Percent of GDP by Industry: 2016 ................................................................................................................. 44

5.2 Utah vs. United States Real GDP Growth ...................................................................................................... 44

Utah Taxable Sales

6.1 Percent Change in Utah Taxable Sales by Component .................................................................................. 49

State Tax Collections

7.1 Inflation‐Adjusted Percentage Change in Unrestricted General and Education Fund Revenue ................... 55

7.2 Actual & Inflation‐Adjusted Unrestricted Revenue Surplus/Deficit for the General and Education Fund .... 55

7.3 Sales Tax, Income Tax, & All Other Unrestricted Revenues as a Percent of Total Unrestricted Revenues ... 56

Exports

8.1 Utah Merchandise Exports ............................................................................................................................ 61

8.2 Utah Merchandise Exports of Top Ten Export Industries .............................................................................. 61

8.3 Utah Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Countries ....................................................................... 62

8.4 Utah Monthly Exports: With and Without Gold ............................................................................................ 62

Price Inflation and Cost of Living

9.1 Cumulative Percent Change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) this Decade ...................................................... 68

9.2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year‐over‐Year Price Change and Relative Value of a Dollar ............................ 68

Regional/National Comparison

10.1 Annualized Population Growth: 2013‐2016 .................................................................................................. 73

10.2 Annualized GDP Growth: 2013‐2016 ............................................................................................................. 73

10.3 Unemployment Rate: October 2016 and October 2017 ............................................................................... 74

10.4 Annualized Employment Growth: December 2013 – December 2016 .......................................................... 74

Economic Development

12.1 Economic Development Project Summary .................................................................................................... 83

Public Education

13.1 Utah Public Education Enrollment, FY 1985 – FY 2019 .................................................................................. 87

13.2 Percent Change in Public Education Enrollment, FY 1985 – 2019 ................................................................. 87

13.3 Largest Enrollment FY 2018 ........................................................................................................................... 88

13.4 Largest Enrollment Growth FY 2017 ‐ FY 2018 .............................................................................................. 88

13.5 Kindergarten Enrollment & Five Years Prior Births, 2000‐2018 .................................................................... 89

13.6 Current Expenditures per Pupil in Enrollment, FY 2002 ‐ FY 2017 ................................................................ 89

13.7 Current Expenditures per Pupil, FY 2014 ....................................................................................................... 90

13.8 Current Expenditures as a Percent of Personal Income, FY 2014 .................................................................. 90

13.9 Total Enrollment & Current Expenditures per Pupil, FY 2017 ....................................................................... 91

Higher Education

14.1 Utah System of Higher Education Enrollment Fall Third Week Headcount ................................................. 102

14.2 USHE Education and General Revenue Trends ............................................................................................ 102

14.3 Median Wages, Poverty, and Unemployment by Education Level .............................................................. 103

14.4 Percentage of Individuals Ages 25 & Older Participating in Public Assistance by Education Level: 2015 ... 103

14.5 Percentage Volunteering by Educational Attainment (Ages 25 & over) ..................................................... 104

14.6 Education Appropriations Per FTE Student FY 2016 .................................................................................... 104

14.7 Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with an Associate’s Degree or Higher ......................................... 105

Agriculture

15.1 Average Annual Price Received in Major Utah Agricultural Sectors ............................................................ 117

15.2 Farmer Share of Food Spending .................................................................................................................. 117

Construction

16.1 Utah Residential Construction Activity ........................................................................................................ 121

16.2 Value of Permit Authorized Construction in Utah ....................................................................................... 121

Energy

17.1 Utah’s Crude Oil Production, Pipeline Imports, and Refinery Receipts ....................................................... 129

17.2 Utah’s Petroleum Product Production and Consumption ........................................................................... 129

17.3 Utah’s Natural Gas Production and Consumption ....................................................................................... 130

17.4 Utah’s Coal Production, Consumption, and Exports .................................................................................... 130

17.5 Utah’s Electricity Net Generation and Consumption................................................................................... 131

Minerals

18.1 Total Value of Utah’s Annual Nonfuel Production ....................................................................................... 139

18.2 Value of Utah’s Annual Base Metal Production ........................................................................................... 139

18.3 Value of Utah’s Annual Precious Metal Production .................................................................................... 140

18.4 Value of Utah’s Annual Industrial Metal Production ................................................................................... 140

Tourism and Travel

19.1 Accommodations Taxable Sales, 2007‐2016 ............................................................................................... 143

19.2 Utah National Park and Skier Visits, 1983‐2016 .......................................................................................... 143

Nonprofit Sector

20.1 Registered 501(c)3 Public Charities by Major Purpose, September 2017 ................................................... 147

20.2 Public 501(c)3 Charities by County .............................................................................................................. 147

20.3 Total Sector Non‐reporting Charities versus Reporting Public Charities, 2007 to 2017 Comparison ......... 148

20.4 Private Foundations versus Charities, 2007 to 2017 Comparison ............................................................... 148

20.5 Motivators for Utahns to be Philanthropic .................................................................................................. 149

20.6 Utah Nonprofits’ Anticipated Organizational Changes in the Next Three Years ...............................…………149

Tables

Demographics

1.1 Utah Population Estimates by Components of Change ....................................................................................9

1.2 Utah Population Projections by Components of Change .............................................................................. 10

1.3 Utah Demographic Projections by Selected Age Group ................................................................................ 11

1.4 Utah Population Estimates by County ........................................................................................................... 12

1.5 U.S. Census Bureau National and State Population Estimates ...................................................................... 13

1.6 Rankings of States by Selected Age Groups as a Percent of Total Population: July 1, 2016 ......................... 14

1.7 Dependency Ratios by State: July 1, 2016 ..................................................................................................... 15

1.8 Total Fertility rates for Utah and the United States ...................................................................................... 16

1.9 Components of Population Change Annual Rates: July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017 ............................................ 17

1.10 Housing Units, Households, and Persons Per Household by State………………………………………………………….... 18

1.11 County Population by Race and Ethnicity in Utah: 2016…………………………………………………………………………… 19

1.12 Total Population by City ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 20

Long‐run Projections

2.1 Utah Population Projections by Components of Change .............................................................................. 28

2.2 Utah Demographic Projections by Selected Age Group ................................................................................ 29

Employment, Wages, and Labor Force

3.1 Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry and Unemployment Rate .............................................................. 34

3.2 Utah Labor Force, Nonagricultural Jobs and Wages ...................................................................................... 35

Personal Income

4.1 Personal and Per Capita Personal Income ..................................................................................................... 40

4.2 Total Per Capita Personal Income by County ................................................................................................ 41

Gross Domestic Product by State

5.1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State ......................................................................................... 45

5.2 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State ................................................................................................ 46

Utah Taxable Sales

6.1 Utah Taxable Sales by Component ................................................................................................................ 50

6.2 Utah Taxable Sales by County ........................................................................................................................ 51

State Tax Collections

7.1 Fiscal Year Revenue Collections (millions) ..................................................................................................... 57

7.2 Fiscal Year Revenue Collections (annual percent change) ............................................................................ 58

Exports

8.1 U.S. Merchandise Exports by State ................................................................................................................ 63

8.2 Utah Merchandise Exports by Industry ......................................................................................................... 64

8.3 Utah Merchandise Exports by Purchasing Country and Region .................................................................... 65

8.4 Utah Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Counties by Industry: 2015 ........................................... 66

Price Inflation and Cost of Living

9.1 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers Not Seasonally Adjusted.................................................... 69

9.2 Regional Price Parities by State: 2015 ........................................................................................................... 70

Regional/National Comparison

10.1 Population and Households: Nation, Mountain States Region, and States ................................................... 75

10.2 Gross Domestic Product and Personal Income: Nation, Mountain States Region, and States ..................... 76

Social Indicators

11.1 Crime, Education, and Home Ownership ...................................................................................................... 78

11.2 Poverty and Public Assistance ....................................................................................................................... 79

Public Education

13.1 Utah Public School Enrollment and State of Utah Population ....................................................................... 92

13.2 Fall Enrollment By District ............................................................................................................................. 93

13.3 Utah Public Education Enrollment by Race and Ethnicity ............................................................................. 94

13.4 FY 2017 Statewide Selected Data .................................................................................................................. 95

13.5 College Entrance Exam Scores ....................................................................................................................... 96

13.6 Selected Data by State ‐ FY 2014 ................................................................................................................... 97

Higher Education

14.1 Utah System of Higher Education and State of Utah Population ................................................................ 106

14.2 Utah System of Higher Education Enrollment by County ............................................................................ 107

14.3 Fall Semester (Third Week) Total Headcount Enrollment by County of Origin and Ethnicity ..................... 108

14.4 Degrees and Awards by Race/Ethnicity at Public Institutions in Utah: Academic Year 2016‐2017 ............ 109

14.5 2016‐2017 Full Cost Study Summary (Appropriated Funds Only) ............................................................... 110

14.6 USHE Summary of Tuition and Fees by Institution ...................................................................................... 111

14.7 Five Year History of Degrees by Public Institutions in Utah ......................................................................... 112

14.8 Public Institutions in Utah Total Degrees and Awards by Instructional Program 2016‐2017 ..................... 113

14.9 USHE Fall Semester Student and FTE Growth: 2016‐2017 .......................................................................... 114

Construction

16.1 Residential and Nonresidential Construction Activity ................................................................................. 122

16.2 Average Rates for 30‐year Mortgages ......................................................................................................... 123

16.3 Housing Price Index for Utah ....................................................................................................................... 124

Energy

17.1 Supply, Disposition, Price, and Value of Crude Oil in Utah .......................................................................... 132

17.2 Supply, Disposition, and Select Prices of Petroleum Products in Utah........................................................ 133

17.3 Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Value of Natural Gas in Utah .................................................................... 134

17.4 Supply, Disposition, Price, and Value of Coal in Utah .................................................................................. 135

17.5 Supply, Disposition, and Price of Electricity in Utah .................................................................................... 136

Tourism and Travel

19.1 Historical Tourism Data in Utah ................................................................................................................... 144

National and Utah Overview

James A. Wood, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Nation

The U.S. economy gained strength throughout the year and enters 2018 with high levels of business and consumer optimism. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board’s index, hit a 17‐year high in November and the small business confidence index from the National Federation of Independent Business survey is at its highest level in 34 years. Consumers are optimistic about improving business conditions and the job market while the small business and corporate sectors expect higher sales and improved profits in 2018.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP growth accelerated from the first quarter’s lackluster 1.2 percent to a strong 3.3 percent increase by the third quarter of 2017. The 3.3 percent growth rate was the highest quarterly rate since the third quarter of 2014. The economic momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter with growth of around three percent. For the full year, 2017 real GDP growth is forecast at 2.5 percent. In 2018, GDP is expected to grow by 2.8 percent giving the U.S. economy the best back‐to‐back years in more than a decade. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economic activity, is expected to be strong in 2018 along with higher levels of business spending. Business spending will likely be up three to four percent in 2018, supported by an improving global economy. Orders for machinery, computers, communications gear, and electrical equipment are likely to have solid growth and stable energy prices are projected to lead to investment in oil and gas drilling.

Jobs The number of jobs in the U.S. increased by 2.2 million in 2017; an annual increase of 1.5 percent and an average monthly increase of about 180,000 jobs. Projections show a similar rate of growth for 2018. The prospect of higher rates of growth are diminishing as the unemployment rate drops to near four percent

and the labor force participation rate closes in on its potential. Labor shortages across many industries are impeding growth.

Interest Rates The Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate to 1.5 percent in December 2017, the third increase in the past year. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates three more times in 2018 pushing up the fed funds rate to over two percent. The Fed is cautiously tightening monetary policy as the U.S. economy experiences strong growth, labor shortages, and the lowest unemployment rate in 16 years. Long‐term rates are likely to increase in 2018. By year‐end 2018, the 30‐year mortgage rate is expected to be near five percent and the 10‐year Treasury Note over three percent, up 75 basis points.

Utah

Jobs When looking at only private sector job growth, Utah ranked first in the nation at the time of this writing. The number of jobs in Utah increased by approximately 43,500 to 1.47 million. Although the rate of growth has been trending down in Utah since 2015; falling from 3.7 percent in 2015 to three percent in 2017 the growth rate is still exceptional. Utah’s high growth sectors in 2017 include professional business services with an increase of 10,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality, with an increase of 5,400 jobs, retail trade with an increase of 5,200 jobs. Utah and Washington Counties are the two major high growth counties with each reporting job growth of 4.6 percent. Three smaller counties also had high rates of growth; Wasatch 5.9 percent, Uintah 6.2 percent, and Duchesne 4.8 percent. Oil prices have increased to nearly $60 a barrel, which has supported the job recovery in the Uintah Basin. Despite the strong job growth in the Uintah Basin in 2017, both Duchesne and Uintah Counties are down about 15 percent from their 2014 employment peaks.

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The 2018 forecast for the Utah economy shows a modest slowdown in employment growth in 2018. For the first time in four years, employment growth should dip below three percent. The 2018 forecast is for 2.8 percent job growth, 41,000 additional jobs. Despite a slight decline in job growth in 2018, Utah will continue to be in the top five among all states in job growth. Nearly 90 percent of the 41,000 new jobs in 2018 are projected to be in just five of Utah’s 29 counties: Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber, and Washington counties. Almost all sectors of the Utah economy are projected to perform well but the largest job increases in 2018 are expected to be in professional and business services, construction, and healthcare.

Labor Shortages and Unemployment Rate Tight conditions in Utah’s labor market continued in 2017. The annual unemployment rate held steady at 3.5 percent, the fourth consecutive year the rate has been below four percent. No relief is expected for most employers as the unemployment rate is projected to drop slightly to 3.3 percent in 2018. Large public and private projects will increase pressure on the labor market, particularly for the construction sector. Along with the $3 billion redevelopment of the Salt Lake International Airport, which is near midpoint and will continue for four to five more years, several other projects are getting underway in 2018 that will add to labor demand: the new $600 million state prison with a completion date of 2020; the 855,000 square foot Amazon fulfillment center; $1 billion in state road construction over the next three years; and $600 million in public school construction approved by voters in November 2017 and planned over the next three years.

Wages and Personal Income Although job growth slowed in 2017, due in part to labor shortages, the average wage had a healthy increase of 5.3 percent. The average wage in Utah in 2017 was $47,012. Utah’s tight labor market is putting upward pressure on wages, particularly in the construction industry where the average wage increased by six percent in 2017. The forecast for wage growth in 2018 is for moderately lower levels of growth.

Total personal income in Utah increased to $132.7 million in 2017, a 6.3 percent increase. Utah ranks in the top tier of states in personal income growth. The relatively high growth rate in personal income reflects the state’s strong job growth and rising wage rate. Personal income is expected to decline slightly to a 4.9 percent growth rate in 2018. On a per capita basis personal income in Utah was at $42,700 in 2017.

Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, and Home Prices The Zions Bank Consumer Attitude Index shows the Utahns are very optimistic about current economic conditions. This optimism can be traced to Utah’s strong job and wage growth, which boosts consumer confidence. Optimistic consumers lead to increased consumer spending, which is reflected in record levels for retail sales. Retail sales in Utah in 2017 increased by 7.8 percent, the strongest increase in five years. Total retail sales hit $31.6 billion in 2017 led by new auto/truck sales, which reached an all‐time high of 134,600 vehicles sales, a six percent increase. Retail sales also got a lift from rising home prices, which added to consumer confidence. The housing price index reported an increase of 8.4 percent in 2017 with a forecast for a 6.9 percent increase in 2018. The Utah economy likely will have a solid year of growth in 2018. Every major economic indicator shows an increase over 2017 with the exception of permit authorized nonresidential construction. Growth rates for most of Utah’s economic indicators should be double the national rate and the Utah economy should outperform almost all of the high growth western states. Utah’s economic growth will be supported by high levels of demographic growth driven, in part, by net in‐migration of 30,000 in 2018. The downside risks to the state’s economy come from external factors that could impact the U.S. economy and reverberate to the local economy; changes in U.S. trade and immigration policy, escalation of military tensions with North Korea, a sudden retrenchment U.S. stock market, or trouble in China’s overpriced housing market. External threats, however, are generally low probability events and unlikely to affect the anticipated solid growth of Utah economy over the next 12 months.

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1. Demographics

Mallory Bateman, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

2017 Overview

Utah’s population continued to grow in 2017, with the third highest annual growth rate in the nation at 1.9 percent. In the short term, Utah’s unique demographics will continue to exist, despite changes in the balance of net migration and natural increase as contributions to population growth.

State Population Estimates Utah’s population grew by 59,045 persons and reached 3,114,039 by July 1, 2017, according to estimates prepared by the Utah Population Committee (UPC). Net migration (in‐migration minus out‐migration) continued to increase in 2017, contributing 26,989 new residents or 46 percent of growth. Natural increase decreased from 2016, but still contributed more than half of the new growth (54 percent or 32,056 persons).

Utah’s rate of natural increase remains the highest among all states, at 11.4 per 1,000 population between 2016 and 2017. This high rate of natural increase has occurred despite the fact that Utah’s fertility rate has been declining over the past decade. While Utah’s total fertility rate has long been the highest in the nation, the continued decline in 2016 resulted in Utah falling to the second highest rate behind South Dakota. While lower than in the past, Utah’s total fertility rate remained above the national average in 2016 (2.24 compared to 1.82).

County Population Estimates The UPC estimates indicate that Salt Lake County experienced the largest population growth between 2016 and 2017, with 19,373 new residents. This was a shift from the previous three years, in which Utah County saw higher absolute growth. Utah County still saw significant growth, with the addition of 14,350 people. The Wasatch Front (Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber) still comprise the majority of the state’s population (2,343,627 residents or 75.3

percent). Salt Lake County maintains its position as the largest county (1,128,283 residents). Wasatch County had the highest rate of growth (4.1 percent), followed by Washington (3.3 percent), and Iron (3.0 percent), according to the UPC estimates. Additionally, ring counties (counties that neighbor the urban core like Tooele and Juab) continue to experience solid population growth. Only two counties are estimated to have lost population: Kane (‐0.3 percent) and Daggett (‐4.7 percent).

Utah's Shifting Age Structure With a median age of 30.7 in 2016, Utah remained the youngest state in the nation. This is due in part to 30 percent of Utahns being under 18 years of age. The state’s share of working‐age population (18 to 64 year olds) was the third lowest in the nation, at 59.2 percent.

While the lowest nationally, Utah’s median age has been increasing over the past several years. This reflects the fact that the 65 and older population has become a larger share of Utah’s overall population. In 2016, 10.5 percent of the state’s population was aged 65 and over. In 2000 this share was 8.5 percent, while in 2010 it was 9.0 percent.

The total dependency ratio (non‐working age persons per 100 working age persons) for 2016 was 68.9. This was the third highest in the nation behind Idaho (70.1) and South Dakota (69.1). The national dependency ratio was 61.7. While most of this ratio was youth (51.2), the share of 65 years and older people has increased from 14.4 in 2000 to 17.6 in 2016.

Persons per household are estimated to be 3.19 in 2016 in Utah, the highest in the nation. This is an increase from 3.10 in 2010. Nationally, this same measure is 2.65 persons per household and has also increased in recent years.

3

Race and Hispanic Origin Counts The “minority” population (measured as the population that is not white alone and non‐Hispanic) remained similar to 2015, at 21.2 percent of the Utah population. Three counties have a higher minority population than the state average – San Juan County (56.5 percent), Salt Lake County (28.2 percent), and Weber County (23.5 percent). The minority population in San Juan County is predominantly the Native American population, while in Salt Lake and Weber County the dominant group is the Hispanic or Latino population.

The Hispanic or Latino population is the largest minority group in the state. This population increased 2.3 percent – from 411,143 in 2015 to 420,400 in 2016. In 2016, those identifying as Hispanic or Latino were 13.8 percent of Utah’s population.

The second largest minority group in Utah was the Asian population at 2.4 percent. This population has experienced significant growth for the past several years, with a 5.7 percent increase from 2015 to 2016.

Subcounty Populations According to July 1, 2016 estimates from the Census Bureau, Salt Lake City remains the largest city in Utah with a population of 193,744. West Valley (136,574) and Provo (116,868) maintained their second and third place rankings from the 2015 estimates.

Cities that added the most population from 2010 to 2016 are South Jordan, Lehi, Herriman, and South Jordan. Nationally, Lehi was the 11th fastest growing city with a population over 50,000. Logan was one of five cities nationally that crossed the 50,000 population mark between 2015 and 2016.

2018 Outlook

A steady pace with 2017 growth is expected in 2018, with short‐term projections indicating a total population of 3,178,000. Natural increase (births minus deaths) is projected to increase slightly, contributing 34,888 people to Utah’s population. Net migration is expected to stay on pace and reach 28,000.

4

Figure 1.1State of Utah Components of Population Change

‐20,000

‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,0001960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Net Migration Natural Increase Population Change

Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee and Utah Population Committee

Figure 1.2Utah Population Growth by County: 2016 to 2017

Source: Utah Population Committee 5

Figure 1.3Utah Population & Growth Projections by Decade:

2015‐2065

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 State and County Projections

2,997,404

3,615,036

4,178,317

4,745,057

5,285,767

5,827,810

17.5% 20.6%15.6%

13.6%11.4% 10.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

‐

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

State Population Decade Growth (%)

61.3

46.541.3 41.5 38.2 36.3 36.5 35.6 34.7 34.8

17.7

18.620.3 20.1

20.7 27.735.5 37.5 38.2 41.5

79.0

65.161.6 61.6

58.9

64.0

71.9 73.1 72.976.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Youth Retirement AgeSources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census and Population Division data Note: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18‐64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.

Figure 1.4U.S. Dependency Ratios: 1970‐2060

6

76.066.5 66.4

54.3 53.0 49.945.6 44.9 44.4 43.3

13.9

13.5 15.8

14.4 15.2 20.024.7 27.0 31.7 35.1

89.9

80.082.3

68.6 68.2 69.9 70.3 71.976.1

78.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Youth Retirement AgeSource: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census data and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State ProjectionsNote: Dependency Ratios are computed as the number of nonworking age persons per 100 working age (18‐64 year old) persons in the population. Youth are less than 18 years old and retirement age is 65 years and older.

Figure 1.5Utah Dependency Ratios: 1970‐2060

Note: Natural increase equals births minus deathsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

Figure 1.6Natural Increase Annual Rate of Change: July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016

7

Figure 1.7Total Fertility for Utah and the United States

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Utah U.S. Replacement LevelNote: The Replacement Level is the fertility level at which the current population is replacedSource: National Center for Health Statistics

8

Table 1.1

Utah Population Estimates by Components of Change

YearJuly 1st

Population

Percent

ChangeIncrease

Net

Migration

Natural

Increase

Fiscal Year

Births

Fiscal Year

Deaths1980 1,474,000 4.1% 58,050 24,536 33,514 41,645 8,131

1981 1,515,000 2.8% 41,000 7,612 33,388 41,509 8,121

1982 1,558,000 2.8% 43,000 9,662 33,338 41,773 8,435

1983 1,595,000 2.4% 37,000 4,914 32,086 40,555 8,469

1984 1,622,000 1.7% 27,000 ‐2,793 29,793 38,643 8,850

1985 1,643,000 1.3% 21,000 ‐7,714 28,714 37,664 8,950

1986 1,663,000 1.2% 20,000 ‐8,408 28,408 37,309 8,901

1987 1,678,000 0.9% 15,000 ‐11,713 26,713 35,631 8,918

1988 1,690,000 0.7% 12,000 ‐14,557 26,557 35,809 9,252

1989 1,706,000 0.9% 16,000 ‐10,355 26,355 35,439 9,084

1990 1,729,227 1.4% 23,227 ‐3,480 26,707 35,830 9,123

1991 1,780,870 3.0% 51,643 24,878 26,765 36,194 9,429

1992 1,838,149 3.2% 57,279 30,042 27,237 36,796 9,559

1993 1,889,393 2.8% 51,244 24,561 26,700 36,755 10,055

1994 1,946,721 3.0% 57,328 30,116 27,209 37,619 10,410

1995 1,995,228 2.5% 48,507 20,024 28,496 39,077 10,581

1996 2,042,893 2.4% 47,665 18,171 29,500 40,501 11,001

1997 2,099,409 2.8% 56,516 25,253 31,303 42,548 11,245

1998 2,141,632 2.0% 42,223 9,745 32,423 44,268 11,845

1999 2,193,014 2.4% 51,382 17,584 33,867 45,648 11,781

2000 2,246,468 2.4% 53,454 18,527 34,927 46,880 11,953

2001 2,290,634 2.0% 44,166 8,915 35,251 47,688 12,437

2002 2,331,826 1.8% 41,192 5,813 35,379 48,041 12,662

2003 2,372,458 1.7% 40,632 3,912 36,720 49,518 12,798

2004 2,430,223 2.4% 57,765 20,520 37,245 50,527 13,282

2005 2,505,843 3.1% 75,620 38,108 37,512 50,431 12,919

2006 2,576,229 2.8% 70,386 31,376 39,010 52,368 13,358

2007 2,636,075 2.3% 59,846 19,673 40,173 53,953 13,780

2008 2,691,122 2.1% 55,047 13,470 41,577 55,357 13,780

2009 2,731,560 1.5% 40,438 ‐325 40,763 54,548 13,785

2010 2,772,371 1.5% 40,811 ‐1,641 38,597 52,899 14,302

2011 2,820,613 1.7% 48,242 11,300 36,939 51,836 14,897

2012 2,864,744 1.6% 44,131 9,032 35,099 50,388 15,289

2013 2,902,179 1.3% 37,435 1,550 35,885 51,801 15,916

2014 2,941,964 1.4% 39,785 4,919 34,866 50,807 15,941

2015 2,997,584 1.9% 55,620 21,671 33,950 51,024 17,074

2016 3,054,994 1.9% 57,410 24,261 33,149 50,704 17,555

2017 3,114,039 1.9% 59,045 26,989 32,056 49,502 17,446

Note: 1. In 1996, the Utah Population Estimates Committee changed the convention on rounded estimates so it

published unrounded estimates. Accordingly, the revised estimates for 1990 and thereafter are not rounded.

2. The Utah Population Estimates Committee revised the population estimates for the years from 2000 to 2009

following the results of the 2010 Census.

3. Data in this table may differ from other tables due to different sources of data or rounding.

Source: 1980‐2009: Utah Population Estimates Committee. 2010‐2017: Utah Population

Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

9

Table 1.2

Utah Population Projections by Components of Change

YearJuly 1st

Population

Percent

ChangeIncrease

Net

Migration

Natural

IncreaseBirths Deaths

2019 3,260,765 2.1% 67,349 35,880 31,469 54,883 19,0032020 3,325,425 2.0% 64,661 35,816 28,845 55,563 19,7472021 3,389,467 1.9% 64,042 38,388 25,654 56,226 17,8392022 3,449,985 1.8% 60,518 38,447 22,071 56,884 18,4372023 3,507,364 1.7% 57,379 38,505 18,874 57,534 19,0292024 3,562,226 1.6% 54,861 38,586 16,275 58,201 19,6152025 3,615,036 1.5% 52,811 38,696 14,115 58,897 20,2012026 3,669,342 1.5% 54,306 38,833 15,473 59,623 20,7902027 3,723,441 1.5% 54,099 39,049 15,051 60,430 21,3812028 3,778,152 1.5% 54,711 39,275 15,436 61,262 21,9872029 3,833,308 1.5% 55,155 39,507 15,648 62,122 22,6142030 3,889,310 1.5% 56,003 39,724 16,278 62,984 23,2602031 3,946,122 1.5% 56,811 39,905 16,906 63,831 23,9252032 4,004,069 1.5% 57,948 40,046 17,902 64,657 24,6112033 4,062,343 1.5% 58,273 40,131 18,143 65,449 25,3192034 4,120,490 1.4% 58,148 40,129 18,019 66,169 26,0402035 4,178,317 1.4% 57,826 40,036 17,790 66,807 26,7712036 4,235,865 1.4% 57,548 39,853 17,695 67,362 27,5092037 4,293,208 1.4% 57,344 39,575 17,768 67,827 28,2522038 4,350,268 1.3% 57,060 39,223 17,837 68,218 28,9952039 4,407,155 1.3% 56,887 38,819 18,068 68,555 29,7362040 4,463,950 1.3% 56,795 38,385 18,411 68,856 30,4722041 4,520,678 1.3% 56,728 37,937 18,791 69,138 31,2012042 4,577,247 1.3% 56,569 37,510 19,059 69,432 31,9222043 4,633,568 1.2% 56,321 37,123 19,198 69,755 32,6322044 4,689,532 1.2% 55,965 36,772 19,192 70,100 33,3282045 4,745,057 1.2% 55,525 36,475 19,049 70,478 34,0032046 4,800,120 1.2% 55,062 36,239 18,823 70,893 34,6542047 4,854,748 1.1% 54,628 36,062 18,566 71,349 35,2872048 4,909,089 1.1% 54,341 35,937 18,405 71,845 35,9092049 4,963,211 1.1% 54,122 35,885 18,236 72,392 36,5062050 5,017,232 1.1% 54,022 35,903 18,119 72,985 37,0822051 5,071,236 1.1% 54,004 35,981 18,023 73,623 37,6422052 5,125,126 1.1% 53,890 36,113 17,777 74,307 38,1942053 5,178,833 1.0% 53,707 36,291 17,416 75,031 38,7412054 5,232,327 1.0% 53,495 36,500 16,994 75,785 39,2842055 5,285,767 1.0% 53,439 36,730 16,710 76,557 39,8282056 5,339,307 1.0% 53,540 36,966 16,574 77,343 40,3772057 5,393,004 1.0% 53,696 37,201 16,496 78,139 40,9382058 5,446,925 1.0% 53,921 37,414 16,507 78,933 41,5182059 5,501,088 1.0% 54,163 37,595 16,569 79,717 42,1232060 5,555,423 1.0% 54,335 37,730 16,605 80,485 42,7552061 5,609,943 1.0% 54,519 37,809 16,711 81,229 43,4212062 5,664,555 1.0% 54,613 37,825 16,787 81,944 44,1192063 5,719,145 1.0% 54,590 37,774 16,816 82,624 44,8502064 5,773,599 1.0% 54,454 37,650 16,804 83,266 45,6172065 5,827,810 0.9% 54,210 37,452 16,758 83,868 46,416

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute State ProjectionsNote: Data in this table may differ from other tables due to different sources of data or rounding.

10

Table 1.3

Utah Demographic Projections by Selected Age Group

Year TotalAbsolute

Growth

Growth

Rate

Median

AgeTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

RateTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

RateTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

Rate2019 3,260,765 67,349 2.1% 31.7 699,962 6,693 1.0% 1,921,806 37,560 2.0% 372,850 18,591 5.2%

2020 3,325,425 64,661 2.0% 31.9 705,631 5,669 0.8% 1,957,722 35,916 1.9% 391,442 18,592 5.0%

2021 3,389,467 64,042 1.9% 32.2 708,542 2,911 0.4% 1,993,455 35,734 1.8% 411,593 20,151 5.1%

2022 3,449,985 60,518 1.8% 32.5 712,480 3,938 0.6% 2,027,389 33,934 1.7% 431,420 19,828 4.8%

2023 3,507,364 57,379 1.7% 32.8 715,336 2,856 0.4% 2,060,074 32,684 1.6% 450,715 19,295 4.5%

2024 3,562,226 54,861 1.6% 33.0 717,354 2,019 0.3% 2,091,879 31,805 1.5% 469,232 18,517 4.1%

2025 3,615,036 52,811 1.5% 33.3 718,210 856 0.1% 2,122,790 30,911 1.5% 487,659 18,427 3.9%

2026 3,669,342 54,306 1.5% 33.4 719,678 1,468 0.2% 2,155,321 32,531 1.5% 504,883 17,224 3.5%

2027 3,723,441 54,099 1.5% 33.6 721,751 2,073 0.3% 2,187,581 32,260 1.5% 521,321 16,438 3.3%

2028 3,778,152 54,711 1.5% 33.7 724,517 2,766 0.4% 2,220,156 32,575 1.5% 537,054 15,733 3.0%

2029 3,833,308 55,155 1.5% 33.8 729,200 4,683 0.6% 2,252,342 32,186 1.4% 551,460 14,406 2.7%

2030 3,889,310 56,003 1.5% 34.0 736,180 6,980 1.0% 2,284,097 31,755 1.4% 564,649 13,190 2.4%

2031 3,946,122 56,811 1.5% 34.1 742,719 6,540 0.9% 2,318,155 34,058 1.5% 576,640 11,991 2.1%

2032 4,004,069 57,948 1.5% 34.3 750,959 8,239 1.1% 2,351,322 33,167 1.4% 588,852 12,211 2.1%

2033 4,062,343 58,273 1.5% 34.4 759,942 8,983 1.2% 2,384,111 32,789 1.4% 601,095 12,244 2.1%

2034 4,120,490 58,148 1.4% 34.6 770,334 10,392 1.4% 2,414,778 30,667 1.3% 614,121 13,026 2.2%

2035 4,178,317 57,826 1.4% 34.8 779,026 8,692 1.1% 2,445,419 30,641 1.3% 628,814 14,693 2.4%

2036 4,235,865 57,548 1.4% 34.9 787,890 8,864 1.1% 2,475,620 30,201 1.2% 643,797 14,983 2.4%

2037 4,293,208 57,344 1.4% 35.1 797,104 9,214 1.2% 2,506,546 30,927 1.2% 657,890 14,093 2.2%

2038 4,350,268 57,060 1.3% 35.3 806,637 9,533 1.2% 2,537,729 31,183 1.2% 671,534 13,644 2.1%

2039 4,407,155 56,887 1.3% 35.5 816,444 9,807 1.2% 2,568,245 30,516 1.2% 685,764 14,229 2.1%

2040 4,463,950 56,795 1.3% 35.7 826,429 9,984 1.2% 2,597,226 28,981 1.1% 701,572 15,809 2.3%

2041 4,520,678 56,728 1.3% 35.8 836,467 10,039 1.2% 2,624,934 27,708 1.1% 718,784 17,212 2.5%

2042 4,577,247 56,569 1.3% 36.0 846,377 9,910 1.2% 2,650,884 25,950 1.0% 737,883 19,099 2.7%

2043 4,633,568 56,321 1.2% 36.2 855,987 9,610 1.1% 2,675,796 24,912 0.9% 758,145 20,261 2.7%

2044 4,689,532 55,965 1.2% 36.4 865,150 9,163 1.1% 2,700,610 24,814 0.9% 778,604 20,459 2.7%

2045 4,745,057 55,525 1.2% 36.6 873,751 8,601 1.0% 2,724,245 23,634 0.9% 800,316 21,712 2.8%

2046 4,800,120 55,062 1.2% 36.8 881,707 7,956 0.9% 2,748,346 24,101 0.9% 821,637 21,321 2.7%

2047 4,854,748 54,628 1.1% 36.9 888,990 7,283 0.8% 2,772,936 24,590 0.9% 842,566 20,929 2.5%

2048 4,909,089 54,341 1.1% 37.1 895,633 6,643 0.7% 2,798,125 25,189 0.9% 863,081 20,515 2.4%

2049 4,963,211 54,122 1.1% 37.2 901,673 6,040 0.7% 2,824,301 26,176 0.9% 882,794 19,713 2.3%

2050 5,017,232 54,022 1.1% 37.3 907,179 5,506 0.6% 2,849,739 25,438 0.9% 903,462 20,668 2.3%

2051 5,071,236 54,004 1.1% 37.4 912,247 5,068 0.6% 2,875,047 25,308 0.9% 924,451 20,990 2.3%

2052 5,125,126 53,890 1.1% 37.4 916,968 4,722 0.5% 2,900,854 25,807 0.9% 944,955 20,504 2.2%

2053 5,178,833 53,707 1.0% 37.5 921,447 4,479 0.5% 2,927,033 26,180 0.9% 964,935 19,980 2.1%

2054 5,232,327 53,495 1.0% 37.6 925,810 4,363 0.5% 2,952,816 25,783 0.9% 985,028 20,092 2.1%

2055 5,285,767 53,439 1.0% 37.7 930,229 4,419 0.5% 2,976,951 24,135 0.8% 1,006,482 21,454 2.2%

2056 5,339,307 53,540 1.0% 37.7 934,856 4,627 0.5% 2,999,376 22,424 0.8% 1,029,384 22,902 2.3%

2057 5,393,004 53,696 1.0% 37.8 939,808 4,952 0.5% 3,025,642 26,266 0.9% 1,048,149 18,765 1.8%

2058 5,446,925 53,921 1.0% 37.9 945,186 5,378 0.6% 3,054,385 28,744 1.0% 1,064,146 15,997 1.5%

2059 5,501,088 54,163 1.0% 38.0 951,062 5,876 0.6% 3,084,598 30,213 1.0% 1,078,369 14,224 1.3%

2060 5,555,423 54,335 1.0% 38.0 957,453 6,392 0.7% 3,115,001 30,403 1.0% 1,092,054 13,685 1.3%

2061 5,609,943 54,519 1.0% 38.1 964,370 6,917 0.7% 3,142,583 27,582 0.9% 1,108,251 16,197 1.5%

2062 5,664,555 54,613 1.0% 38.1 971,800 7,430 0.8% 3,167,041 24,459 0.8% 1,127,225 18,975 1.7%

2063 5,719,145 54,590 1.0% 38.2 979,706 7,906 0.8% 3,192,733 25,692 0.8% 1,144,582 17,356 1.5%

2064 5,773,599 54,454 1.0% 38.3 988,034 8,328 0.9% 3,217,796 25,063 0.8% 1,162,154 17,572 1.5%

2065 5,827,810 54,210 0.9% 38.3 996,717 8,683 0.9% 3,241,337 23,542 0.7% 1,180,818 18,664 1.6%

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 State and County Projections

Total Population School Age Population (5‐17) Working Age Population (18‐64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

11

Table 1.4

Utah Population Estimates by County

2017April 1,

2010

July 1,

2010

July 1,

2011

July 1,

2012

July 1,

2013

July 1,

2014

July 1,

2015

July 1,

2016

July 1,

2017

Absolute

Change

Percent

Change

% of Total

PopulationBeaver 6,629 6,643 6,658 6,670 6,754 6,661 6,710 6,782 6,843 61 0.9% 0.2%Box Elder 49,975 50,067 50,640 51,155 51,795 52,282 52,971 54,040 54,970 930 1.7% 1.8%Cache 112,656 113,307 115,004 116,404 117,600 118,876 121,873 123,926 126,491 2,565 2.1% 4.1%Carbon 21,403 21,419 21,505 21,590 21,341 21,203 21,168 21,193 21,211 18 0.1% 0.7%Daggett 1,059 1,078 1,109 1,114 1,157 1,113 1,114 1,104 1,052 ‐52 ‐4.7% 0.0%Davis 306,479 307,625 313,280 318,477 324,410 329,842 336,106 342,658 348,770 6,112 1.8% 11.2%Duchesne 18,607 18,721 19,020 19,696 20,283 20,577 20,822 20,609 20,828 219 1.1% 0.7%Emery 10,976 11,012 11,128 10,964 10,945 10,845 10,662 10,577 10,673 96 0.9% 0.3%Garfield 5,172 5,171 5,203 5,226 5,220 5,194 5,164 5,191 5,240 49 0.9% 0.2%Grand 9,225 9,238 9,395 9,529 9,553 9,631 9,764 9,943 10,060 117 1.2% 0.3%Iron 46,163 46,221 46,955 47,311 47,622 48,193 49,412 50,747 52,280 1,533 3.0% 1.7%Juab 10,246 10,280 10,380 10,485 10,604 10,824 11,072 11,542 11,798 256 2.2% 0.4%Kane 7,125 7,116 7,200 7,302 7,321 7,268 7,272 7,583 7,559 ‐24 ‐0.3% 0.2%Millard 12,503 12,535 12,706 12,816 12,956 13,023 13,105 13,291 13,477 186 1.4% 0.4%Morgan 9,469 9,518 9,714 10,049 10,418 10,776 11,081 11,522 11,725 203 1.8% 0.4%Piute 1,556 1,555 1,576 1,585 1,603 1,594 1,632 1,604 1,607 3 0.2% 0.1%Rich 2,264 2,278 2,291 2,277 2,300 2,324 2,355 2,357 2,371 14 0.6% 0.1%Salt Lake 1,029,655 1,031,697 1,046,461 1,060,336 1,070,815 1,080,905 1,094,681 1,108,910 1,128,283 19,373 1.7% 36.2%San Juan 14,746 14,771 15,037 15,448 15,578 15,782 15,919 16,324 16,344 20 0.1% 0.5%Sanpete 27,822 27,907 28,351 28,485 28,632 28,705 29,089 29,490 30,033 543 1.8% 1.0%Sevier 20,802 20,814 20,893 21,053 21,021 21,102 21,240 21,519 21,766 247 1.1% 0.7%Summit 36,324 36,562 37,396 37,936 38,212 38,678 39,280 40,051 40,772 721 1.8% 1.3%Tooele 58,218 58,358 59,151 60,131 61,367 62,184 63,266 65,290 67,133 1,843 2.8% 2.2%Uintah 32,588 32,760 33,943 35,047 36,146 36,981 37,398 36,583 36,613 30 0.1% 1.2%Utah 516,564 518,872 532,753 544,892 554,405 567,218 585,719 603,385 617,735 14,350 2.4% 19.8%Wasatch 23,530 23,652 24,484 25,542 26,390 27,344 28,616 29,998 31,224 1,226 4.1% 1.0%Washington 138,115 138,579 141,797 144,061 147,061 150,508 154,615 160,371 165,601 5,230 3.3% 5.3%Wayne 2,778 2,782 2,766 2,773 2,748 2,740 2,725 2,719 2,738 19 0.7% 0.1%Weber 231,236 231,833 233,819 236,391 237,921 239,588 242,753 245,687 248,839 3,152 1.3% 8.0%

Bear River 164,895 165,652 167,935 169,836 171,695 173,482 177,200 180,323 183,832 3,510 1.9% 5.9%Central 75,707 75,873 76,672 77,197 77,563 77,988 78,863 80,165 81,419 1,254 1.6% 2.6%Mountainland 576,418 579,086 594,633 608,371 619,007 633,241 653,614 673,433 689,732 16,298 2.4% 22.1%Southeastern 56,350 56,440 57,065 57,531 57,418 57,462 57,514 58,037 58,288 251 0.4% 1.9%Southwestern 203,204 203,730 207,812 210,569 213,978 217,825 223,173 230,673 237,524 6,850 3.0% 7.6%Uintah Basin 52,254 52,559 54,072 55,857 57,586 58,672 59,334 58,295 58,494 198 0.3% 1.9%Wasatch Front 1,635,057 1,639,031 1,662,423 1,685,383 1,704,932 1,723,295 1,747,887 1,774,067 1,804,751 30,683 1.7% 58.0%State of Utah 2,763,885 2,772,371 2,820,613 2,864,744 2,902,179 2,941,964 2,997,584 3,054,994 3,114,039 59,045 1.9% 100.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (April 1, 2010). Utah Population Committee, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (2010‐2016).

Note: The MCDs are multi‐county districts and are divided as follows: Bear River MCD: Box Elder, Cache, and Rich counties; Central MCD: Juab, Millard,

Piute, Sanpete, Sevier, and Wayne counties; Mountainland MCD: Summit, Utah, and Wasatch counties;Southeastern MCD: Carbon, Emery, Grand, and San

Juan counties; Southwestern MCD: Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane and Washington counties; Uintah Basin MCD: Daggett, Duchesne, and Uintah counties;

Wasatch Front MCD: Davis, Morgan, Salt Lake, Tooele, and Weber counties.

MCD

Census 2016 ‐ 2017

12

Table 1.5

U.S. Census Bureau National and State Population Estimates

Population Rank Population Rank Population RankAbsolute

Change

Percent

Change

% Change

Rank

Absolute

Change

Percent

Change

% Change

RankUnited States 308,745,538 323,405,935 325,719,178 16,973,640 5.5% 2,313,243 0.7%RegionNortheast 55,317,240 4 56,359,360 4 56,470,581 4 1,153,341 2.1% 3 111,221 0.2% 4Midwest 66,927,001 3 67,978,168 3 68,179,351 3 1,252,350 1.9% 4 201,183 0.3% 3South 114,555,744 1 122,423,457 1 123,658,624 1 9,102,880 7.9% 1 1,235,167 1.0% 1West 71,945,553 2 76,644,950 2 77,410,622 2 5,465,069 7.6% 2 765,672 1.0% 2StateAlabama 4,779,736 23 4,860,545 24 4,874,747 24 95,011 2.0% 39 14,202 0.3% 34Alaska 710,231 47 741,522 48 739,795 48 29,564 4.2% 27 ‐1,727 ‐0.2% 48Arizona 6,392,017 16 6,908,642 14 7,016,270 14 624,253 9.8% 9 107,628 1.6% 6Arkansas 2,915,918 32 2,988,231 32 3,004,279 32 88,361 3.0% 30 16,048 0.5% 23California 37,253,956 1 39,296,476 1 39,536,653 1 2,282,697 6.1% 18 240,177 0.6% 21Colorado 5,029,196 22 5,530,105 21 5,607,154 21 577,958 11.5% 6 77,049 1.4% 9Connecticut 3,574,097 29 3,587,685 29 3,588,184 29 14,087 0.4% 48 499 0.0% 43Delaware 897,934 45 952,698 45 961,939 45 64,005 7.1% 15 9,241 1.0% 16District of Columbia 601,723 50 684,336 49 693,972 49 92,249 15.3% 1 9,636 1.4% 8Florida 18,801,310 4 20,656,589 3 20,984,400 3 2,183,090 11.6% 5 327,811 1.6% 5Georgia 9,687,653 9 10,313,620 8 10,429,379 8 741,726 7.7% 14 115,759 1.1% 14Hawaii 1,360,301 40 1,428,683 40 1,427,538 40 67,237 4.9% 23 ‐1,145 ‐0.1% 47Idaho 1,567,582 39 1,680,026 39 1,716,943 39 149,361 9.5% 10 36,917 2.2% 1Illinios 12,830,632 5 12,835,726 5 12,802,023 6 ‐28,609 ‐0.2% 49 ‐33,703 ‐0.3% 49Indiana 6,483,802 15 6,634,007 17 6,666,818 17 183,016 2.8% 31 32,811 0.5% 25Iowa 3,046,355 30 3,130,869 30 3,145,711 30 99,356 3.3% 29 14,842 0.5% 26Kansas 2,853,118 33 2,907,731 35 2,913,123 35 60,005 2.1% 36 5,392 0.2% 38Kentucky 4,339,367 26 4,436,113 26 4,454,189 26 114,822 2.6% 33 18,076 0.4% 29Louisiana 4,533,372 25 4,686,157 25 4,684,333 25 150,961 3.3% 28 ‐1,824 0.0% 45Maine 1,328,361 41 1,330,232 42 1,335,907 42 7,546 0.6% 46 5,675 0.4% 28Maryland 5,773,552 19 6,024,752 19 6,052,177 19 278,625 4.8% 24 27,425 0.5% 27Massachusetts 6,547,629 14 6,823,721 15 6,859,819 15 312,190 4.8% 26 36,098 0.5% 24Michigan 9,883,640 8 9,933,445 10 9,962,311 10 78,671 0.8% 44 28,866 0.3% 35Minnesota 5,303,925 21 5,525,050 22 5,576,606 22 272,681 5.1% 21 51,556 0.9% 18Mississippi 2,967,297 31 2,985,415 33 2,984,100 34 16,803 0.6% 47 ‐1,315 0.0% 46Missouri 5,988,927 18 6,091,176 18 6,113,532 18 124,605 2.1% 37 22,356 0.4% 31Montana 989,415 44 1,038,656 44 1,050,493 44 61,078 6.2% 17 11,837 1.1% 13Nebraska 1,826,341 38 1,907,603 37 1,920,076 37 93,735 5.1% 22 12,473 0.7% 20Nevada 2,700,551 35 2,939,254 34 2,998,039 33 297,488 11.0% 7 58,785 2.0% 2New Hampshire 1,316,470 42 1,335,015 41 1,342,795 41 26,325 2.0% 38 7,780 0.6% 22New Jersey 8,791,894 11 8,978,416 11 9,005,644 11 213,750 2.4% 35 27,228 0.3% 33New Mexico 2,059,179 36 2,085,432 36 2,088,070 36 28,891 1.4% 41 2,638 0.1% 40New York 19,378,102 3 19,836,286 4 19,849,399 4 471,297 2.4% 34 13,113 0.1% 41North Carolina 9,535,483 10 10,156,689 9 10,273,419 9 737,936 7.7% 13 116,730 1.1% 12North Dakota 672,591 48 755,548 47 755,393 47 82,802 12.3% 3 ‐155 0.0% 44Ohio 11,536,504 7 11,622,554 7 11,658,609 7 122,105 1.1% 42 36,055 0.3% 32Oklahoma 3,751,351 28 3,921,207 28 3,930,864 28 179,513 4.8% 25 9,657 0.2% 36Oregon 3,831,074 27 4,085,989 27 4,142,776 27 311,702 8.1% 12 56,787 1.4% 10Pennsylvania 12,702,379 6 12,787,085 6 12,805,537 5 103,158 0.8% 43 18,452 0.1% 39Rhode Island 1,052,567 43 1,057,566 43 1,059,639 43 7,072 0.7% 45 2,073 0.2% 37South Carolina 4,625,364 24 4,959,822 23 5,024,369 23 399,005 8.6% 11 64,547 1.3% 11South Dakota 814,180 46 861,542 46 869,666 46 55,486 6.8% 16 8,124 0.9% 17Tennessee 6,346,105 17 6,649,404 16 6,715,984 16 369,879 5.8% 20 66,580 1.0% 15Texas 25,145,561 2 27,904,862 2 28,304,596 2 3,159,035 12.6% 2 399,734 1.4% 7Utah 2,763,885 34 3,044,321 31 3,101,833 31 337,948 12.2% 4 57,512 1.9% 3Vermont 625,741 49 623,354 50 623,657 50 ‐2,084 ‐0.3% 50 303 0.0% 42Virginia 8,001,024 12 8,414,380 12 8,470,020 12 468,996 5.9% 19 55,640 0.7% 19Washington 6,724,540 13 7,280,934 13 7,405,743 13 681,203 10.1% 8 124,809 1.7% 4West Virginia 1,852,994 37 1,828,637 38 1,815,857 38 ‐37,137 ‐2.0% 51 ‐12,780 ‐0.7% 50Wisconsin 5,686,986 20 5,772,917 20 5,795,483 20 108,497 1.9% 40 22,566 0.4% 30Wyoming 563,626 51 584,910 51 579,315 51 15,689 2.8% 32 ‐5,595 ‐1.0% 51

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

July 1, 2017July 1, 2016 April 1, 2010 2010‐2017 2016‐2017

13

Table 1.6

Rankings of States by Selected Age Groups as a Percent of Total Population: July 1, 2016

Rank State Population State PopulationPercent

of TotalState Population

Percent


Percent


Percent

of Total

United States 321,925,074 United States 19,927,037 6.2% United States 53,714,172 16.7% United States 199,039,670 61.8% United States 49,244,195 15.3% United States

1 California 39,091,453 Utah 253,450 8.3% Utah 668,323 21.9% District of Columbia 477,708 70.5% Florida 4,094,917 19.9% Maine 44.52 Texas 27,746,209 Alaska 54,115 7.5% Idaho 321,884 19.2% Massachusetts 4,354,558 64.0% Maine 257,683 19.4% Vermont 43.13 Florida 20,542,033 North Dakota 55,236 7.4% Texas 5,275,305 19.0% Rhode Island 669,941 63.7% West Virginia 343,517 18.8% New Hampshire 42.74 New York 19,720,257 Texas 2,019,171 7.3% Alaska 133,212 18.5% Colorado 3,501,777 63.6% Vermont 112,932 18.1% West Virginia 42.35 Pennsylvania 12,778,121 South Dakota 61,369 7.1% Georgia 1,850,473 18.1% New Hampshire 845,920 63.4% Montana 185,040 17.8% Florida 42.16 Illinois 12,771,787 Nebraska 132,809 7.0% Kansas 520,644 18.0% New York 12,507,189 63.4% Hawaii 243,962 17.7% Connecticut 40.97 Ohio 11,605,207 Idaho 115,289 6.9% Nebraska 340,516 17.9% Alaska 455,662 63.3% Delaware 166,950 17.6% Delaware 40.68 Georgia 10,249,176 Oklahoma 266,910 6.8% Mississippi 532,585 17.9% California 24,652,096 63.1% Pennsylvania 2,223,721 17.4% Pennsylvania 40.69 North Carolina 10,038,459 Kansas 194,307 6.7% Oklahoma 694,662 17.8% Vermont 392,535 62.9% New Hampshire 226,804 17.0% Rhode Island 40.210 Michigan 9,924,279 Louisiana 310,601 6.7% South Dakota 151,918 17.6% Maryland 3,760,223 62.8% Arizona 1,170,924 16.9% Montana 40.111 New Jersey 8,935,274 Hawaii 91,535 6.6% New Mexico 361,713 17.5% Connecticut 2,238,168 62.7% South Carolina 830,232 16.9% Michigan 39.712 Virginia 8,296,630 Wyoming 38,145 6.6% Indiana 1,153,465 17.4% Virginia 5,197,780 62.6% Oregon 688,878 16.8% Massachusetts 39.513 Washington 7,233,149 Georgia 660,839 6.4% Wyoming 100,756 17.3% Washington 4,522,592 62.5% New Mexico 342,426 16.6% New Jersey 39.514 Arizona 6,911,889 District of Columbia 43,507 6.4% Arkansas 514,776 17.3% Illinois 7,974,531 62.4% Rhode Island 173,964 16.5% Wisconsin 39.415 Massachusetts 6,806,624 Minnesota 352,504 6.4% Arizona 1,192,169 17.2% New Jersey 5,577,927 62.4% Iowa 514,215 16.4% Ohio 39.316 Tennessee 6,630,587 Arkansas 190,277 6.4% Louisiana 803,348 17.2% Georgia 6,383,202 62.3% Arkansas 486,734 16.3% Oregon 39.217 Indiana 6,630,434 Indiana 421,987 6.4% Minnesota 935,829 17.0% Oregon 2,533,421 61.9% Ohio 1,886,629 16.3% South Carolina 39.118 Missouri 6,077,062 Iowa 199,415 6.4% Iowa 531,316 17.0% North Dakota 464,245 61.9% Michigan 1,611,755 16.2% Alabama 39.019 Maryland 5,985,161 California 2,487,372 6.4% California 6,605,350 16.9% Nevada 1,810,060 61.8% Connecticut 577,403 16.2% Hawaii 38.920 Wisconsin 5,775,775 Arizona 439,319 6.4% Illinois 2,153,481 16.9% Michigan 6,121,467 61.7% Alabama 784,551 16.2% Kentucky 38.721 Minnesota 5,517,643 Mississippi 188,701 6.3% North Carolina 1,692,391 16.9% Pennsylvania 7,879,595 61.7% South Dakota 138,805 16.1% North Carolina 38.722 Colorado 5,506,673 Nevada 184,462 6.3% Nevada 492,965 16.8% Louisiana 2,875,649 61.7% Missouri 978,021 16.1% Tennessee 38.623 South Carolina 4,921,951 Washington 455,339 6.3% Colorado 923,908 16.8% Wisconsin 3,559,666 61.6% Wisconsin 928,418 16.1% Maryland 38.524 Alabama 4,849,650 Kentucky 275,753 6.2% Missouri 1,012,840 16.7% Texas 17,098,493 61.6% Tennessee 1,047,052 15.8% Missouri 38.425 Louisiana 4,664,041 New Mexico 128,950 6.2% Kentucky 734,876 16.6% Minnesota 3,397,082 61.6% Massachusetts 1,073,964 15.8% New York 38.426 Kentucky 4,420,441 Missouri 373,958 6.2% Alabama 804,236 16.6% Tennessee 4,081,740 61.6% North Carolina 1,569,465 15.6% Virginia 38.227 Oregon 4,091,026 Virginia 510,501 6.2% Tennessee 1,094,196 16.5% Kentucky 2,719,095 61.5% Kentucky 690,717 15.6% Arkansas 38.028 Oklahoma 3,904,864 Tennessee 407,599 6.1% Ohio 1,914,249 16.5% Maine 817,592 61.5% New York 3,032,509 15.4% Iowa 38.029 Connecticut 3,568,865 Maryland 367,095 6.1% Wisconsin 950,785 16.5% North Carolina 6,170,293 61.5% New Jersey 1,372,612 15.4% Illinois 37.930 Iowa 3,133,319 Colorado 337,464 6.1% Maryland 981,633 16.4% Indiana 4,063,419 61.3% Idaho 254,989 15.2% Minnesota 37.931 Utah 3,046,082 Montana 63,029 6.1% Virginia 1,359,605 16.4% Ohio 7,106,406 61.2% Mississippi 450,941 15.2% Nevada 37.932 Arkansas 2,982,997 Illinois 772,511 6.0% New Jersey 1,463,403 16.4% Alabama 2,968,298 61.2% Kansas 436,993 15.1% New Mexico 37.733 Mississippi 2,974,294 North Carolina 606,310 6.0% South Carolina 804,231 16.3% Missouri 3,712,243 61.1% Oklahoma 590,138 15.1% Washington 37.734 Nevada 2,928,629 Alabama 292,565 6.0% Michigan 1,616,634 16.3% Wyoming 355,548 61.1% Nebraska 286,744 15.1% Indiana 37.635 Kansas 2,886,272 Ohio 697,923 6.0% Washington 1,174,155 16.2% Delaware 577,310 60.9% Minnesota 832,228 15.1% Arizona 37.536 New Mexico 2,068,877 South Carolina 293,134 6.0% North Dakota 121,074 16.1% South Carolina 2,994,354 60.8% Wyoming 87,812 15.1% Mississippi 37.237 Nebraska 1,900,329 New York 1,160,057 5.9% Connecticut 567,973 15.9% West Virginia 1,111,502 60.7% Nevada 441,142 15.1% Wyoming 37.238 West Virginia 1,830,087 New Jersey 521,332 5.8% Montana 164,582 15.8% Mississippi 1,802,067 60.6% Indiana 991,563 15.0% South Dakota 36.839 Idaho 1,679,576 Wisconsin 336,906 5.8% Delaware 149,440 15.8% Montana 626,118 60.3% Washington 1,081,063 14.9% Colorado 36.740 Hawaii 1,380,824 Michigan 574,423 5.8% Hawaii 216,481 15.7% Iowa 1,888,373 60.3% Virginia 1,228,744 14.8% Georgia 36.541 New Hampshire 1,333,312 Delaware 54,834 5.8% Oregon 632,927 15.5% Oklahoma 2,353,154 60.3% North Dakota 109,999 14.7% Kansas 36.542 Maine 1,329,989 Oregon 235,800 5.8% Pennsylvania 1,963,040 15.4% Kansas 1,734,328 60.1% Illinois 1,871,264 14.7% Louisiana 36.543 Rhode Island 1,052,286 Pennsylvania 711,765 5.6% New York 3,020,502 15.3% Arkansas 1,791,210 60.0% Maryland 876,210 14.6% California 36.444 Montana 1,038,769 West Virginia 101,019 5.5% West Virginia 274,049 15.0% Hawaii 828,846 60.0% Louisiana 674,443 14.5% Oklahoma 36.445 Delaware 948,534 Florida 1,126,136 5.5% Massachusetts 1,016,726 14.9% Nebraska 1,140,260 60.0% California 5,346,635 13.7% Nebraska 36.346 South Dakota 861,881 Massachusetts 361,376 5.3% New Hampshire 196,388 14.7% Florida 12,300,414 59.9% Colorado 743,524 13.5% Idaho 36.147 North Dakota 750,554 Rhode Island 54,708 5.2% Florida 3,020,566 14.7% New Mexico 1,235,788 59.7% Georgia 1,354,662 13.2% North Dakota 35.048 Alaska 720,195 Connecticut 185,321 5.2% Rhode Island 153,673 14.6% Arizona 4,109,477 59.5% Texas 3,353,240 12.1% Texas 34.549 District of Columbia 677,292 Vermont 30,641 4.9% Maine 189,646 14.3% Utah 1,803,145 59.2% District of Columbia 78,691 11.6% District of Columbia 33.950 Vermont 623,995 Maine 65,068 4.9% Vermont 87,887 14.1% South Dakota 509,789 59.1% Alaska 77,206 10.7% Alaska 33.551 Wyoming 582,261 New Hampshire 64,200 4.8% District of Columbia 77,386 11.4% Idaho 987,414 58.8% Utah 321,164 10.5% Utah 30.7

Note: Totals may differ in this table from other tables in this report due to different release dates or data sources.


Median

Age

All Ages Under Age 5 Ages 5 to 17 Ages 18 to 64 Ages 65+State

14

Table 1.7Dependency Ratios by State: July 1, 2016

Rank

United States 10.0 United States 27.0 United States 24.7 United States 61.71 Utah 14.1 Utah 37.1 Florida 33.3 Idaho 70.12 South Dakota 12.0 Idaho 32.6 Maine 31.5 South Dakota 69.13 North Dakota 11.9 Texas 30.9 West Virginia 30.9 Utah 68.94 Alaska 11.9 Kansas 30.0 Montana 29.6 Arizona 68.25 Texas 11.8 Nebraska 29.9 Hawaii 29.4 New Mexico 67.46 Idaho 11.7 South Dakota 29.8 Delaware 28.9 Florida 67.07 Nebraska 11.6 Mississippi 29.6 Vermont 28.8 Nebraska 66.78 Oklahoma 11.3 Oklahoma 29.5 Arizona 28.5 Hawaii 66.69 Kansas 11.2 New Mexico 29.3 Pennsylvania 28.2 Arkansas 66.510 Hawaii 11.0 Alaska 29.2 South Carolina 27.7 Kansas 66.411 Louisiana 10.8 Arizona 29.0 New Mexico 27.7 Oklahoma 65.912 Wyoming 10.7 Georgia 29.0 Iowa 27.2 Iowa 65.913 Arizona 10.7 Arkansas 28.7 South Dakota 27.2 Montana 65.914 Arkansas 10.6 Indiana 28.4 Oregon 27.2 Mississippi 65.015 Iowa 10.6 Wyoming 28.3 Arkansas 27.2 West Virginia 64.616 Mississippi 10.5 Iowa 28.1 New Hampshire 26.8 South Carolina 64.417 New Mexico 10.4 Louisiana 27.9 Ohio 26.5 Delaware 64.318 Indiana 10.4 Minnesota 27.5 Alabama 26.4 Wyoming 63.819 Minnesota 10.4 North Carolina 27.4 Missouri 26.3 Missouri 63.720 Georgia 10.4 Missouri 27.3 Michigan 26.3 Alabama 63.421 Nevada 10.2 Nevada 27.2 Wisconsin 26.1 Ohio 63.322 Kentucky 10.1 Alabama 27.1 Rhode Island 26.0 Indiana 63.223 California 10.1 Kentucky 27.0 Idaho 25.8 North Carolina 62.724 Missouri 10.1 Illinois 27.0 Connecticut 25.8 Maine 62.725 Washington 10.1 Ohio 26.9 Tennessee 25.7 Kentucky 62.626 Montana 10.1 South Carolina 26.9 North Carolina 25.4 Tennessee 62.427 Tennessee 10.0 Tennessee 26.8 Kentucky 25.4 Minnesota 62.428 Alabama 9.9 California 26.8 Kansas 25.2 Texas 62.329 North Carolina 9.8 Wisconsin 26.7 Nebraska 25.1 Wisconsin 62.330 Virginia 9.8 Michigan 26.4 Oklahoma 25.1 Louisiana 62.231 Ohio 9.8 Colorado 26.4 Mississippi 25.0 Pennsylvania 62.232 South Carolina 9.8 Montana 26.3 Wyoming 24.7 Michigan 62.133 Maryland 9.8 New Jersey 26.2 Massachusetts 24.7 Nevada 61.834 Illinois 9.7 Virginia 26.2 New Jersey 24.6 North Dakota 61.735 Colorado 9.6 Hawaii 26.1 Minnesota 24.5 Oregon 61.536 Delaware 9.5 Maryland 26.1 Indiana 24.4 Georgia 60.637 Wisconsin 9.5 North Dakota 26.1 Nevada 24.4 New Jersey 60.238 Michigan 9.4 Washington 26.0 New York 24.2 Illinois 60.239 New Jersey 9.3 Delaware 25.9 Washington 23.9 Washington 59.940 Oregon 9.3 Connecticut 25.4 North Dakota 23.7 Virginia 59.641 New York 9.3 Oregon 25.0 Virginia 23.6 Connecticut 59.542 Florida 9.2 Pennsylvania 24.9 Illinois 23.5 Maryland 59.243 District of Columbia 9.1 West Virginia 24.7 Louisiana 23.5 Vermont 59.044 West Virginia 9.1 Florida 24.6 Maryland 23.3 California 58.645 Pennsylvania 9.0 New York 24.2 California 21.7 Alaska 58.146 Massachusetts 8.3 Massachusetts 23.3 Colorado 21.2 New York 57.747 Connecticut 8.3 New Hampshire 23.2 Georgia 21.2 New Hampshire 57.648 Rhode Island 8.2 Maine 23.2 Texas 19.6 Colorado 57.349 Maine 8.0 Rhode Island 22.9 Utah 17.8 Rhode Island 57.150 Vermont 7.8 Vermont 22.4 Alaska 16.9 Massachusetts 56.351 New Hampshire 7.6 District of Columbia 16.2 District of Columbia 16.5 District of Columbia 41.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Division, rate calculated by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Preschool‐Age (Under Age 5)

per 100 of Working Age

School‐Age (5‐17) per 100 of

Working Age

Retirement‐Age (65 & Over) per

100 of Working Age

Total Non‐Working Age per 100 of

Working Age

15

Table 1.8

Total Fertility Rates for Utah and the United States

Year Utah U.S. Year Utah U.S. Year Utah U.S.1960 4.30 3.61 1979 3.28 1.81 1998 2.59 2.001961 4.24 3.56 1980 3.14 1.84 1999 2.61 2.011962 4.18 3.42 1981 3.06 1.81 2000 2.76 2.131963 3.87 3.30 1982 2.99 1.83 2001 2.61 2.031964 3.55 3.17 1983 2.83 1.80 2002 2.63 2.021965 3.24 2.88 1984 2.74 1.81 2003 2.63 2.051966 3.17 2.67 1985 2.69 1.84 2004 2.64 2.051967 3.12 2.53 1986 2.59 1.84 2005 2.63 2.061968 3.04 2.43 1987 2.48 1.87 2006 2.67 2.111969 3.09 2.42 1988 2.52 1.93 2007 2.68 2.121970 3.30 2.48 1989 2.55 2.01 2008 2.65 2.071971 3.14 2.27 1990 2.65 2.08 2009 2.54 2.001972 2.88 2.01 1991 2.53 2.06 2010 2.45 1.931973 2.84 1.88 1992 2.53 2.05 2011 2.38 1.891974 2.91 1.84 1993 2.45 2.02 2012 2.37 1.881975 2.96 1.77 1994 2.44 2.00 2013 2.34 1.861976 3.19 1.74 1995 2.45 1.98 2014 2.33 1.861977 3.30 1.79 1996 2.53 1.98 2015 2.29 1.841978 3.25 1.76 1997 2.52 1.97 2016 2.24 1.82

Source: National Center for Health Statistics

16

Table 1.9

Components of Population Change Annual Rates: July 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017

State Rate State Rate State Rate State Rate State RateUnited States 7.1 United States 12.2 United States 8.5 United States 3.7 United States 3.4

1 Idaho 21.7 Utah 16.7 West Virginia 12.2 Utah 11.4 Idaho 15.6 2 Nevada 19.8 Alaska 15.1 Alabama 10.8 Alaska 8.9 Nevada 15.6 3 Utah 18.7 North Dakota 14.6 Mississippi 10.3 Texas 7.5 Florida 14.6 4 Washington 17.0 Texas 14.4 Maine 10.3 North Dakota 6.6 Washington 12.3 5 Florida 15.7 District of Columbia 14.1 Pennsylvania 10.3 District of Columbia 6.2 Arizona 11.4 6 Arizona 15.5 South Dakota 14.0 Arkansas 10.1 Idaho 6.1 Oregon 11.1 7 Texas 14.2 Nebraska 13.8 Kentucky 10.1 Nebraska 5.8 South Carolina 10.9 8 District of Columbia 14.0 Idaho 13.5 Oklahoma 10.0 South Dakota 5.6 Montana 8.6 9 Colorado 13.8 Louisiana 13.5 Ohio 9.9 California 5.4 North Carolina 8.4 10 Oregon 13.8 Oklahoma 13.3 Tennessee 9.8 Colorado 5.4 Colorado 8.4 11 South Carolina 12.9 Kansas 13.1 Florida 9.8 Minnesota 4.9 District of Columbia 7.7 12 North Carolina 11.4 Wyoming 12.9 South Carolina 9.6 Georgia 4.7 Tennessee 7.6 13 Montana 11.3 Arkansas 12.8 Louisiana 9.6 Washington 4.6 Delaware 7.5 14 Georgia 11.2 Hawaii 12.6 Missouri 9.6 Kansas 4.6 Utah 7.3 15 Tennessee 10.0 Georgia 12.6 Delaware 9.4 Wyoming 4.6 Texas 6.7 16 Delaware 9.7 Mississippi 12.5 Michigan 9.4 Nevada 4.2 Georgia 6.5 17 South Dakota 9.4 Indiana 12.5 Montana 9.3 Virginia 4.1 Maine 5.2 18 Minnesota 9.3 Minnesota 12.5 Rhode Island 9.2 Arizona 4.0 New Hampshire 5.2 19 Virginia 6.6 Iowa 12.5 Indiana 9.1 Hawaii 4.0 Minnesota 4.4 20 Nebraska 6.5 California 12.4 Iowa 9.0 Louisiana 3.8 South Dakota 3.8 21 California 6.1 Kentucky 12.3 North Carolina 8.8 Maryland 3.7 Massachusetts 3.2 22 New Hampshire 5.8 Nevada 12.3 Vermont 8.8 New York 3.7 Arkansas 2.7 23 Arkansas 5.4 Washington 12.3 Oregon 8.6 Illinois 3.7 Virginia 2.5 24 Massachusetts 5.3 Arizona 12.3 New Hampshire 8.6 New Mexico 3.5 Kentucky 1.8 25 Indiana 4.9 Tennessee 12.2 Hawaii 8.6 Iowa 3.4 Alabama 1.7 26 Iowa 4.7 Colorado 12.1 New Mexico 8.6 Indiana 3.4 Indiana 1.6 27 Maryland 4.5 Missouri 12.1 Wisconsin 8.5 Oklahoma 3.3 Iowa 1.3 28 Maine 4.3 New Mexico 12.1 Kansas 8.5 New Jersey 3.1 Ohio 1.2 29 Kentucky 4.1 Virginia 12.0 Connecticut 8.4 North Carolina 3.0 Missouri 1.2 30 Wisconsin 3.9 Illinois 12.0 South Dakota 8.4 Wisconsin 2.9 Wisconsin 1.1 31 Missouri 3.7 Alabama 12.0 Massachusetts 8.3 Montana 2.7 Michigan 1.1 32 Ohio 3.1 Maryland 12.0 Illinois 8.3 Oregon 2.7 Pennsylvania 0.9 33 New Jersey 3.0 Montana 12.0 Wyoming 8.3 Arkansas 2.6 Rhode Island 0.9 34 Alabama 2.9 Ohio 11.8 Maryland 8.3 Missouri 2.5 Maryland 0.8 35 Michigan 2.9 North Carolina 11.8 Arizona 8.3 Tennessee 2.4 Nebraska 0.7 36 Oklahoma 2.5 New York 11.7 New Jersey 8.2 Kentucky 2.3 California 0.7 37 Rhode Island 2.0 South Carolina 11.6 Nevada 8.2 Mississippi 2.2 New Jersey 0.0 38 Kansas 1.9 Delaware 11.5 North Dakota 8.1 Delaware 2.1 Vermont 0.0 39 Pennsylvania 1.4 Wisconsin 11.4 New York 8.0 Massachusetts 2.1 Oklahoma ‐0.8 40 New Mexico 1.3 Oregon 11.3 Nebraska 8.0 South Carolina 2.0 Connecticut ‐1.3 41 New York 0.7 New Jersey 11.3 Virginia 7.9 Ohio 1.9 New Mexico ‐2.2 42 Vermont 0.5 Michigan 11.3 Georgia 7.9 Michigan 1.9 Mississippi ‐2.6 43 Connecticut 0.1 Pennsylvania 10.8 District of Columbia 7.9 Connecticut 1.4 Kansas ‐2.7 44 North Dakota ‐0.2 Florida 10.8 Washington 7.7 Alabama 1.2 New York ‐3.0 45 Louisiana ‐0.4 West Virginia 10.5 Minnesota 7.5 Rhode Island 1.1 Louisiana ‐4.2 46 Mississippi ‐0.4 Massachusetts 10.4 Idaho 7.4 Florida 1.1 Hawaii ‐4.8 47 Hawaii ‐0.8 Rhode Island 10.3 California 7.0 New Hampshire 0.7 West Virginia ‐5.3 48 Alaska ‐2.3 Connecticut 9.8 Texas 6.9 Pennsylvania 0.6 Illinois ‐6.3 49 Illinois ‐2.6 Maine 9.4 Colorado 6.7 Vermont 0.5 North Dakota ‐6.8 50 West Virginia ‐7.0 Vermont 9.3 Alaska 6.1 Maine ‐0.9 Alaska ‐11.3 51 Wyoming ‐9.6 New Hampshire 9.3 Utah 5.4 West Virginia ‐1.7 Wyoming ‐14.2


Note : Rank is high to low. When states share the same rank, the next lower rank is omitted. Total population change includes a residual. This residual

represents the change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. Data in this table may differ from other tables due to

different sources of data.

Net MigrationTotal PopulationRate per 1,000 people

Rank Deaths Naural IncreaseBirths

17

Table 1.10

Housing Units, Households, and Persons Per Household by State

Total

Housing

Units

Total

Households

Persons

Per

Household

Rank

Total

Housing

Units

Total

Households

Persons

Per

Household

Rank

Total

Housing

Units

Total

Households

United States 131,704,730 116,716,292 2.58 ‐ 135,702,775 118,860,065 2.65 ‐ 3.0% 1.8%Alabama 2,171,853 1,883,791 2.48 27 2,230,180 1,852,518 2.56 24 2.7% ‐1.7%Alaska 306,967 258,058 2.65 7 310,672 248,468 2.87 4 1.2% ‐3.7%Arizona 2,844,526 2,380,990 2.63 9 2,961,136 2,519,052 2.69 10 4.1% 5.8%Arkansas 1,316,299 1,147,084 2.47 33 1,354,801 1,142,718 2.54 30 2.9% ‐0.4%California 13,680,081 12,577,498 2.90 2 14,061,375 12,944,178 2.97 3 2.8% 2.9%Colorado 2,212,898 1,972,868 2.49 22 2,339,140 2,108,992 2.57 22 5.7% 6.9%Connecticut 1,487,891 1,371,087 2.52 19 1,499,145 1,357,269 2.55 25 0.8% ‐1.0%Delaware 405,885 342,297 2.55 15 426,154 351,085 2.64 17 5.0% 2.6%District of Columbia 296,719 266,707 2.11 51 313,703 281,241 2.28 51 5.7% 5.4%Florida 8,989,580 7,420,802 2.48 27 9,302,140 7,573,456 2.66 13 3.5% 2.1%Georgia 4,088,801 3,585,584 2.63 9 4,219,103 3,686,135 2.73 8 3.2% 2.8%Hawaii 519,508 455,338 2.89 3 537,170 455,868 3.04 2 3.4% 0.1%Idaho 667,796 579,408 2.66 6 700,829 610,872 2.71 9 4.9% 5.4%Illinois 5,296,715 4,836,972 2.59 12 5,327,165 4,822,046 2.59 20 0.6% ‐0.3%Indiana 2,795,541 2,502,154 2.52 19 2,854,595 2,533,270 2.54 30 2.1% 1.2%Iowa 1,336,417 1,221,576 2.41 45 1,380,087 1,247,932 2.43 47 3.3% 2.2%Kansas 1,233,215 1,112,096 2.49 22 1,259,870 1,110,407 2.55 25 2.2% ‐0.2%Kentucky 1,927,164 1,719,965 2.45 37 1,965,577 1,717,706 2.51 34 2.0% ‐0.1%Louisiana 1,964,981 1,728,360 2.55 15 2,037,067 1,720,801 2.65 15 3.7% ‐0.4%Maine 721,830 557,219 2.32 49 730,786 531,660 2.44 44 1.2% ‐4.6%Maryland 2,378,814 2,156,411 2.61 11 2,447,211 2,194,657 2.68 12 2.9% 1.8%Massachusetts 2,808,254 2,547,075 2.48 27 2,858,087 2,579,398 2.54 30 1.8% 1.3%Michigan 4,532,233 3,872,508 2.49 22 4,560,164 3,884,153 2.50 36 0.6% 0.3%Minnesota 2,347,201 2,087,227 2.48 27 2,409,701 2,148,725 2.51 34 2.7% 2.9%Mississippi 1,274,719 1,115,768 2.58 13 1,307,492 1,091,245 2.65 15 2.6% ‐2.2%Missouri 2,712,729 2,375,611 2.45 37 2,760,226 2,372,190 2.49 38 1.8% ‐0.1%Montana 482,825 409,607 2.35 47 497,749 416,125 2.44 44 3.1% 1.6%Nebraska 796,793 721,130 2.46 35 827,191 747,562 2.48 40 3.8% 3.7%Nevada 1,173,814 1,006,250 2.65 7 1,221,759 1,055,158 2.75 6 4.1% 4.9%New Hampshire 614,754 518,973 2.46 35 625,337 520,643 2.48 40 1.7% 0.3%New Jersey 3,553,562 3,214,360 2.68 5 3,604,688 3,194,519 2.74 7 1.4% ‐0.6%New Mexico 901,388 791,395 2.55 15 917,641 758,364 2.69 10 1.8% ‐4.2%New York 8,108,103 7,317,755 2.57 14 8,232,039 7,209,054 2.66 13 1.5% ‐1.5%North Carolina 4,327,528 3,745,155 2.48 27 4,540,697 3,882,423 2.55 25 4.9% 3.7%North Dakota 317,498 281,192 2.30 50 368,545 315,134 2.32 50 16.1% 12.1%Ohio 5,127,508 4,603,435 2.44 40 5,164,400 4,624,669 2.44 44 0.7% 0.5%Oklahoma 1,664,378 1,460,450 2.49 22 1,721,072 1,469,342 2.60 19 3.4% 0.6%Oregon 1,675,562 1,518,938 2.47 33 1,732,887 1,571,678 2.55 25 3.4% 3.5%Pennsylvania 5,567,315 5,018,904 2.45 37 5,611,995 4,937,771 2.50 36 0.8% ‐1.6%Rhode Island 463,388 413,600 2.44 40 462,598 408,239 2.48 40 ‐0.2% ‐1.3%South Carolina 2,137,683 1,801,181 2.49 22 2,236,262 1,877,887 2.57 22 4.6% 4.3%South Dakota 363,438 322,282 2.42 43 383,827 334,003 2.49 38 5.6% 3.6%Tennessee 2,812,133 2,493,552 2.48 27 2,919,698 2,556,332 2.54 30 3.8% 2.5%Texas 9,977,436 8,922,933 2.75 4 10,754,268 9,535,612 2.86 5 7.8% 6.9%Utah 979,709 877,692 3.10 1 1,054,242 943,147 3.19 1 7.6% 7.5%Vermont 322,539 256,442 2.34 48 329,539 254,851 2.35 49 2.2% ‐0.6%Virginia 3,364,939 3,056,058 2.54 18 3,491,185 3,120,692 2.62 18 3.8% 2.1%Washington 2,885,677 2,620,076 2.51 21 3,025,802 2,768,076 2.58 21 4.9% 5.6%West Virginia 881,917 763,831 2.36 46 886,710 722,125 2.47 43 0.5% ‐5.5%Wisconsin 2,624,358 2,279,768 2.43 42 2,668,443 2,326,998 2.42 48 1.7% 2.1%Wyoming 261,868 226,879 2.42 43 270,625 223,619 2.55 25 3.3% ‐1.4%

Note: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census. U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates.

2010 20162010 to 2016

Percent Change

18

Table 1.11

County Population by Race and Ethnicity in Utah: 2016

Race Alone (Not Hispanic or Latino)

Geographic

Area

Total

PopulationWhite

Black/

African

American

American

Indian and

Alaska

Native

Asian

Native

Hawaiian

and Other

Pacific

Islander

State 3,051,217 2,404,802 32,435 30,220 73,240 29,070 61,010 420,440 646,415Percent of

Population100.0% 78.8% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 1.0% 2.0% 13.8%

21.2%

Beaver 6,463 6,076 18 55 70 21 97 743 387Box Elder 53,139 50,716 183 345 446 91 793 4,883 2,423Cache 122,753 114,188 755 585 3,084 445 1,886 12,863 8,565Carbon 20,399 19,290 131 185 132 37 316 2,677 1,109Daggett 1,095 1,045 4 14 5 1 17 43 50Davis 342,281 316,629 4,154 1,417 6,423 2,489 7,287 32,296 25,652Duchesne 20,337 18,616 59 670 93 69 442 1,641 1,721Emery 10,216 9,890 32 75 44 7 99 666 326Garfield 4,986 4,667 16 105 65 19 63 306 319Grand 9,579 8,705 49 364 127 6 156 978 874Iron 49,937 46,648 280 957 418 176 820 4,313 3,289Juab 11,010 10,607 37 87 30 21 129 530 403Kane 7,334 7,014 34 113 40 11 87 328 320Millard 12,694 11,984 28 129 145 21 142 1,646 710Morgan 11,437 11,141 25 33 91 12 103 280 296Piute 1,466 1,411 5 5 6 3 24 113 55Rich 2,319 2,258 5 11 3 3 23 135 61Salt Lake 1,121,354 986,336 17,949 7,399 45,659 17,892 24,236 202,721 135,018San Juan 16,895 7,917 49 8,129 104 10 332 925 8,978Sanpete 29,409 27,670 248 263 250 156 410 2,840 1,739Sevier 21,267 20,458 87 204 78 38 237 1,046 809Summit 40,307 38,336 255 95 653 45 542 4,569 1,971Tooele 64,833 61,191 488 516 478 299 1,086 7,801 3,642Uintah 36,373 32,138 137 2,484 160 114 712 3,042 4,235Utah 592,299 552,228 3,270 2,767 9,586 5,084 12,928 68,004 40,071Wasatch 30,528 29,214 128 111 261 61 357 4,108 1,314Washington 160,245 150,127 810 1,717 1,296 1,237 2,765 16,192 10,118Wayne 2,702 2,601 4 14 19 6 34 147 101Weber 247,560 229,074 3,195 1,371 3,474 696 4,887 44,604 18,486


Two or

More

Races (Not

Hispanic or

Latino)

Hispanic

Origin (of

any race)

Total

Minority

Note: As a result of the revised standards for collecting data on race and ethnicity issued by the Office of Management and Also,

respondents were allowed to select more than one race. Respondents who selected more than one race are included in the “Two

or More Races” category. For postcensal population estimates, the "Some Other Race" category was omitted.

Budget in 1997, the federal government treats Hispanic origin and race as separate and distinct concepts.

Thus Hispanics may be of any race.

19

Table 1.12

Total Population by City

Estimates

Census Base 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent Number Percent Number

Utah 2,763,885 2,763,888 2,775,326 2,816,124 2,855,782 2,902,663 2,941,836 2,990,632 3,051,217 10.4% 287,332 2.0% 60,585

Beaver County 6,629 6,629 6,648 6,525 6,493 6,462 6,424 6,344 6,463 ‐2.5% ‐166 1.9% 119

Beaver city 3,112 3,122 3,134 3,070 3,073 3,058 3,044 3,001 3,048 ‐2.1% ‐64 1.6% 47

Milford city 1,409 1,408 1,410 1,381 1,367 1,357 1,345 1,330 1,357 ‐3.7% ‐52 2.0% 27

Minersville town 907 907 908 895 886 883 877 867 887 ‐2.2% ‐20 2.3% 20

Balance of Beaver County 1,201 1,192 1,196 1,179 1,167 1,164 1,158 1,146 1,171 ‐2.5% ‐30 2.2% 25

Box Elder County 49,975 49,975 50,147 50,261 50,259 50,807 51,435 51,998 53,139 6.3% 3,164 2.2% 1,141

Bear River City city 853 853 854 848 837 840 841 850 869 1.9% 16 2.2% 19

Brigham City city 17,899 17,908 17,960 18,052 18,195 18,441 18,600 18,717 18,975 6.0% 1,076 1.4% 258

Corinne city 685 683 690 680 689 687 687 693 703 2.6% 18 1.4% 10

Deweyville town 332 336 336 333 330 330 331 332 339 2.1% 7 2.1% 7

Elwood town 1,034 1,069 1,074 1,070 1,065 1,066 1,067 1,068 1,077 4.2% 43 0.8% 9

Fielding town 455 453 454 449 444 445 447 451 459 0.9% 4 1.8% 8

Garland city 2,400 2,437 2,443 2,428 2,399 2,411 2,427 2,443 2,492 3.8% 92 2.0% 49

Honeyville city 1,441 1,441 1,446 1,434 1,425 1,427 1,439 1,451 1,501 4.2% 60 3.4% 50

Howell town 245 245 245 245 245 245 247 247 250 2.0% 5 1.2% 3

Mantua town 687 689 690 683 678 684 696 731 786 14.4% 99 7.5% 55

Perry city 4,512 4,510 4,523 4,505 4,488 4,526 4,612 4,693 4,846 7.4% 334 3.3% 153

Plymouth town 414 404 405 403 402 403 404 412 431 4.1% 17 4.6% 19

Portage town 245 245 245 250 247 248 251 255 257 4.9% 12 0.8% 2

Snowville town 167 167 167 171 169 169 170 170 172 3.0% 5 1.2% 2

Tremonton city 7,647 7,673 7,716 7,845 7,829 7,955 8,110 8,212 8,426 10.2% 779 2.6% 214

Willard city 1,772 1,774 1,776 1,764 1,751 1,758 1,774 1,784 1,812 2.3% 40 1.6% 28

Balance of Box Elder County 9,187 9,088 9,123 9,101 9,066 9,172 9,332 9,489 9,744 6.1% 557 2.7% 255

Cache County 112,656 112,656 113,365 114,872 115,931 117,198 118,177 120,060 122,753 9.0% 10,097 2.2% 2,693

Amalga town 488 490 492 498 500 500 505 510 516 5.7% 28 1.2% 6

Clarkston town 666 675 680 685 689 681 682 693 711 6.8% 45 2.6% 18

Cornish town 288 297 298 301 304 305 307 312 315 9.4% 27 1.0% 3

Hyde Park city 3,833 3,834 3,876 3,971 4,066 4,160 4,278 4,360 4,513 17.7% 680 3.5% 153

Hyrum city 7,609 7,613 7,662 7,729 7,778 7,776 7,841 7,932 8,027 5.5% 418 1.2% 95

Lewiston city 1,766 1,764 1,779 1,777 1,774 1,763 1,757 1,766 1,806 2.3% 40 2.3% 40

Logan city 48,174 48,210 48,446 49,075 49,090 49,093 49,110 49,753 50,676 5.2% 2,502 1.9% 923

Mendon city 1,282 1,343 1,348 1,342 1,336 1,330 1,329 1,348 1,386 8.1% 104 2.8% 38

Millville city 1,829 1,882 1,893 1,911 1,924 1,924 1,939 1,961 1,986 8.6% 157 1.3% 25

Newton town 789 789 792 787 789 783 781 781 797 1.0% 8 2.0% 16

Nibley city 5,438 5,469 5,568 5,759 5,869 5,995 6,195 6,444 6,747 24.1% 1,309 4.7% 303

North Logan city 8,269 8,276 8,322 8,388 8,791 9,689 9,905 10,172 10,590 28.1% 2,321 4.1% 418

Paradise town 904 902 909 917 921 921 928 938 950 5.1% 46 1.3% 12

Providence city 7,075 6,943 6,978 6,995 7,007 7,010 7,071 7,180 7,270 2.8% 195 1.3% 90

Richmond city 2,470 2,476 2,491 2,512 2,525 2,522 2,542 2,571 2,600 5.3% 130 1.1% 29

River Heights city 1,734 1,854 1,867 1,884 1,898 1,899 1,916 1,938 1,962 13.1% 228 1.2% 24

Smithfield city 9,495 9,632 9,693 9,981 10,246 10,422 10,582 10,771 11,146 17.4% 1,651 3.5% 375

Trenton town 464 489 491 496 498 497 501 506 512 10.3% 48 1.2% 6

Wellsville city 3,432 3,492 3,515 3,545 3,567 3,567 3,595 3,636 3,678 7.2% 246 1.2% 42

Balance of Cache County 6,651 6,226 6,265 6,319 6,359 6,361 6,413 6,488 6,565 ‐1.3% ‐86 1.2% 77

Carbon County 21,403 21,403 21,421 21,329 21,242 20,935 20,659 20,430 20,399 ‐4.7% ‐1,004 ‐0.2% ‐31

East Carbon‐Sunnyside city 1,678 1,679 1,674 1,668 1,648 1,616 1,583 1,572 ‐6.3% ‐106 ‐0.7% ‐11

Helper city 2,201 2,203 2,206 2,200 2,193 2,166 2,134 2,101 2,095 ‐4.8% ‐106 ‐0.3% ‐6

Price city 8,715 8,727 8,728 8,673 8,630 8,475 8,391 8,363 8,371 ‐3.9% ‐344 0.1% 8

Scofield town 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 ‐4.2% ‐1 0.0% 0

Wellington city 1,676 1,688 1,692 1,688 1,683 1,663 1,639 1,613 1,609 ‐4.0% ‐67 ‐0.2% ‐4

Balance of Carbon County 7,109 7,083 7,092 7,070 7,044 6,959 6,856 6,747 6,729 ‐5.3% ‐380 ‐0.3% ‐18

Daggett County 1,059 1,061 1,076 1,167 1,093 1,138 1,127 1,110 1,095 3.4% 36 ‐1.4% ‐15

Dutch John town 145 147 162 152 158 156 154 151 ‐1.9% ‐3

Manila town 310 327 330 355 328 343 334 331 324 4.5% 14 ‐2.1% ‐7

Balance of Daggett County 749 589 599 650 613 637 637 625 620 ‐17.2% ‐129 ‐0.8% ‐5

Davis County 306,479 306,486 307,978 312,111 316,165 322,796 329,448 335,768 342,281 11.7% 35,802 1.9% 6,513

Bountiful city 42,552 42,593 42,701 42,895 42,950 43,013 43,392 43,748 44,078 3.6% 1,526 0.8% 330

Centerville city 15,335 15,279 15,339 15,540 16,161 16,564 16,769 16,863 17,286 12.7% 1,951 2.5% 423

Clearfield city 30,112 29,921 30,036 30,245 30,248 30,301 30,297 30,659 30,855 2.5% 743 0.6% 196

Clinton city 20,426 20,486 20,579 20,759 20,870 20,961 21,160 21,386 21,672 6.1% 1,246 1.3% 286

Farmington city 18,275 18,228 18,422 19,268 20,688 21,505 22,081 22,539 23,140 26.6% 4,865 2.7% 601

Fruit Heights city 4,987 5,036 5,053 5,117 5,352 5,644 5,911 6,068 6,161 23.5% 1,174 1.5% 93

Kaysville city 27,300 27,585 27,719 28,288 28,578 29,025 29,659 30,441 31,243 14.4% 3,943 2.6% 802

Layton city 67,311 67,529 67,823 68,506 68,892 71,024 72,426 74,084 75,655 12.4% 8,344 2.1% 1,571

North Salt Lake city 16,322 16,206 16,341 16,589 16,863 17,820 19,059 19,764 20,301 24.4% 3,979 2.7% 537

South Weber city 6,051 6,063 6,094 6,221 6,384 6,523 6,735 6,956 7,196 18.9% 1,145 3.5% 240

Sunset city 5,122 5,152 5,163 5,179 5,172 5,164 5,178 5,198 5,234 2.2% 112 0.7% 36

Syracuse city 24,331 24,369 24,518 24,871 25,158 25,742 26,625 27,371 28,407 16.8% 4,076 3.8% 1,036

West Bountiful city 5,265 5,259 5,277 5,308 5,322 5,359 5,439 5,508 5,574 5.9% 309 1.2% 66

West Point city 9,511 9,412 9,466 9,660 9,721 9,824 10,101 10,339 10,548 10.9% 1,037 2.0% 209

Woods Cross city 9,761 9,761 9,833 10,086 10,214 10,745 11,092 11,274 11,351 16.3% 1,590 0.7% 77

Balance of Davis County 3,818 3,607 3,614 3,579 3,592 3,582 3,524 3,570 3,580 ‐6.2% ‐238 0.3% 10

Duchesne County 18,607 18,609 18,560 18,674 19,003 20,010 20,260 20,781 20,337 9.3% 1,730 ‐2.1% ‐444

Altamont town 225 238 238 238 241 254 257 263 255 13.3% 30 ‐3.0% ‐8

Duchesne city 1,690 1,720 1,657 1,661 1,687 1,765 1,773 1,805 1,755 3.8% 65 ‐2.8% ‐50

Myton city 569 574 573 575 583 605 623 639 624 9.7% 55 ‐2.3% ‐15

Change from

2015 to 2016to 2016

April 1, 2010

Change from

2010 Census Population Estimate (July 1)

20

Table 1.12


Estimates


Change from

2015 to 2016to 2016

April 1, 2010

Change from


Roosevelt city 6,046 6,050 6,065 6,132 6,280 6,651 6,757 6,976 6,905 14.2% 859 ‐1.0% ‐71

Tabiona town 171 156 156 156 158 167 169 174 169 ‐1.2% ‐2 ‐2.9% ‐5

Balance of Duchesne County 9,906 9,871 9,871 9,912 10,054 10,568 10,681 10,924 10,629 7.3% 723 ‐2.7% ‐295

Emery County 10,976 10,976 10,982 10,972 10,919 10,738 10,625 10,352 10,216 ‐6.9% ‐760 ‐1.3% ‐136

Castle Dale city 1,630 1,638 1,639 1,640 1,630 1,602 1,589 1,548 1,528 ‐6.3% ‐102 ‐1.3% ‐20

Clawson town 163 199 199 199 200 199 198 193 190 16.6% 27 ‐1.6% ‐3

Cleveland town 464 470 470 472 472 463 459 448 442 ‐4.7% ‐22 ‐1.3% ‐6

Elmo town 418 435 435 437 435 435 428 415 408 ‐2.4% ‐10 ‐1.7% ‐7

Emery town 288 290 290 288 288 281 280 271 266 ‐7.6% ‐22 ‐1.8% ‐5

Ferron city 1,626 1,666 1,667 1,664 1,656 1,623 1,602 1,559 1,534 ‐5.7% ‐92 ‐1.6% ‐25

Green River city 952 1,026 1,026 1,024 1,021 1,000 988 960 943 ‐0.9% ‐9 ‐1.8% ‐17

Huntington city 2,129 2,141 2,144 2,141 2,120 2,080 2,058 2,001 1,975 ‐7.2% ‐154 ‐1.3% ‐26

Orangeville city 1,470 1,476 1,479 1,474 1,470 1,444 1,428 1,393 1,378 ‐6.3% ‐92 ‐1.1% ‐15

Balance of Emery County 1,836 1,635 1,633 1,633 1,627 1,611 1,595 1,564 1,552 ‐15.5% ‐284 ‐0.8% ‐12

Garfield County 5,172 5,172 5,175 5,155 5,085 5,045 4,995 4,991 4,986 ‐3.6% ‐186 ‐0.1% ‐5

Antimony town 122 125 125 124 122 120 119 120 119 ‐2.5% ‐3 ‐0.8% ‐1

Boulder town 226 226 226 224 220 220 222 223 225 ‐0.4% ‐1 0.9% 2

Bryce Canyon City town 198 230 231 230 227 225 222 223 223 12.6% 25 0.0% 0

Cannonville town 167 178 178 177 174 171 168 168 169 1.2% 2 0.6% 1

Escalante city 797 820 823 820 806 799 790 788 787 ‐1.3% ‐10 ‐0.1% ‐1

Hatch town 133 146 146 145 142 142 141 140 140 5.3% 7 0.0% 0

Henrieville town 230 230 231 228 224 221 219 220 220 ‐4.3% ‐10 0.0% 0

Panguitch city 1,520 1,726 1,720 1,717 1,701 1,689 1,671 1,667 1,665 9.5% 145 ‐0.1% ‐2

Tropic town 530 530 531 529 521 516 511 511 509 ‐4.0% ‐21 ‐0.4% ‐2

Balance of Garfield County 1,249 961 964 961 948 942 932 931 929 ‐25.6% ‐320 ‐0.2% ‐2

Grand County 9,225 9,225 9,298 9,263 9,314 9,332 9,420 9,493 9,579 3.8% 354 0.9% 86

Castle Valley town 319 322 325 325 332 334 338 343 348 9.1% 29 1.5% 5

Moab city 5,046 5,062 5,100 5,074 5,160 5,160 5,194 5,223 5,242 3.9% 196 0.4% 19

Balance of Grand County 3,860 3,841 3,873 3,864 3,822 3,838 3,888 3,927 3,989 3.3% 129 1.6% 62

Iron County 46,163 46,163 46,264 46,657 46,706 46,632 47,185 48,294 49,937 8.2% 3,774 3.4% 1,643

Brian Head town 83 85 85 86 86 86 86 87 89 7.2% 6 2.3% 2

Cedar City city 28,857 28,867 28,936 29,183 29,122 29,068 29,446 30,134 31,223 8.2% 2,366 3.6% 1,089

Enoch city 5,803 5,858 5,878 5,980 6,032 6,035 6,109 6,265 6,568 13.2% 765 4.8% 303

Kanarraville town 355 358 358 359 358 360 363 368 378 6.5% 23 2.7% 10

Paragonah town 488 498 498 499 501 500 500 508 520 6.6% 32 2.4% 12

Parowan city 2,790 2,801 2,804 2,817 2,835 2,829 2,856 2,924 2,986 7.0% 196 2.1% 62

Balance of Iron County 7,787 7,696 7,705 7,733 7,772 7,754 7,825 8,008 8,173 5.0% 386 2.1% 165

Juab County 10,246 10,246 10,222 10,302 10,282 10,255 10,421 10,566 11,010 7.5% 764 4.2% 444

Eureka city 669 669 669 670 665 662 666 667 682 1.9% 13 2.2% 15

Levan town 841 843 844 857 852 847 860 872 898 6.8% 57 3.0% 26

Mona city 1,547 1,540 1,541 1,552 1,547 1,547 1,574 1,599 1,662 7.4% 115 3.9% 63

Nephi city 5,389 5,388 5,358 5,400 5,390 5,375 5,458 5,529 5,784 7.3% 395 4.6% 255

Rocky Ridge town 733 733 734 739 743 741 759 775 806 10.0% 7300.0% 4.0% 3100.0%

Santaquin city (pt.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐ ‐ ‐ 0

Balance of Juab County 1,067 1,073 1,076 1,084 1,085 1,083 1,104 1,124 1,178 10.4% 111 4.8% 54

Kane County 7,125 7,125 7,123 7,203 7,199 7,200 7,228 7,120 7,334 2.9% 209 3.0% 214

Alton town 119 119 119 120 118 117 118 116 119 0.0% 0 2.6% 3

Big Water town 475 479 479 483 474 471 473 467 480 1.1% 5 2.8% 13

Glendale town 381 381 381 385 379 374 374 366 373 ‐2.1% ‐8 1.9% 7

Kanab city 4,312 4,324 4,318 4,364 4,406 4,427 4,441 4,380 4,526 5.0% 214 3.3% 146

Orderville town 577 578 579 586 576 570 571 560 573 ‐0.7% ‐4 2.3% 13

Balance of Kane County 1,261 1,244 1,247 1,265 1,246 1,241 1,251 1,231 1,263 0.2% 2 2.6% 32

Millard County 12,503 12,503 12,513 12,595 12,524 12,594 12,560 12,649 12,694 1.5% 191 0.4% 45

Delta city 3,436 3,437 3,440 3,466 3,447 3,469 3,463 3,484 3,509 2.1% 73 0.7% 25

Fillmore city 2,435 2,461 2,463 2,481 2,482 2,485 2,483 2,490 2,491 2.3% 56 0.0% 1

Hinckley town 696 696 696 698 691 697 695 696 698 0.3% 2 0.3% 2

Holden town 378 378 378 381 378 379 376 378 377 ‐0.3% ‐1 ‐0.3% ‐1

Kanosh town 474 474 474 475 470 471 468 468 466 ‐1.7% ‐8 ‐0.4% ‐2

Leamington town 226 226 226 228 226 228 228 231 231 2.2% 5 0.0% 0

Lynndyl town 106 106 106 107 106 109 109 111 113 6.6% 7 1.8% 2

Meadow town 310 310 310 312 310 313 312 316 315 1.6% 5 ‐0.3% ‐1

Oak City town 578 604 607 614 610 620 622 636 644 11.4% 66 1.3% 8

Scipio town 327 327 327 327 325 326 323 322 320 ‐2.1% ‐7 ‐0.6% ‐2

Balance of Millard County 3,537 3,484 3,486 3,506 3,479 3,497 3,481 3,517 3,530 ‐0.2% ‐7 0.4% 13

Morgan County 9,469 9,469 9,527 9,660 9,822 10,240 10,636 11,091 11,437 20.8% 1,968 3.1% 346

Morgan city 3,687 3,663 3,677 3,686 3,708 3,909 3,967 4,060 4,154 12.7% 467 2.3% 94

Balance of Morgan County 5,782 5,806 5,850 5,974 6,114 6,331 6,669 7,031 7,283 26.0% 1,501 3.6% 252

Piute County 1,556 1,557 1,556 1,518 1,523 1,514 1,479 1,503 1,466 ‐5.8% ‐90 ‐2.5% ‐37

Circleville town 547 547 546 534 537 532 515 518 501 ‐8.4% ‐46 ‐3.3% ‐17

Junction town 191 191 191 186 187 185 179 181 174 ‐8.9% ‐17 ‐3.9% ‐7

Kingston town 173 173 173 168 169 168 163 164 158 ‐8.7% ‐15 ‐3.7% ‐6

Marysvale town 408 399 399 387 387 387 387 403 403 ‐1.2% ‐5 0.0% 0

Balance of Piute County 237 247 247 243 243 242 235 237 230 ‐3.0% ‐7 ‐3.0% ‐7

Rich County 2,264 2,264 2,251 2,309 2,269 2,260 2,274 2,296 2,319 2.4% 55 1.0% 23

Garden City town 562 560 560 575 567 564 570 576 587 4.4% 25 1.9% 11

21

Table 1.12


Estimates


Change from

2015 to 2016to 2016

April 1, 2010

Change from


Laketown town 248 252 250 256 252 252 254 257 259 4.4% 11 0.8% 2

Randolph town 464 462 458 470 462 456 458 463 466 0.4% 2 0.6% 3

Woodruff town 180 184 182 188 184 185 185 186 188 4.4% 8 1.1% 2

Balance of Rich County 810 806 801 820 804 803 807 814 819 1.1% 9 0.6% 5

Salt Lake County 1,029,655 1,029,581 1,033,172 1,048,534 1,064,462 1,080,761 1,091,389 1,104,622 1,121,354 8.9% 91,699 1.5% 16,732

Alta town 383 383 383 387 389 391 386 387 387 1.0% 4 0.0% 0

Bluffdale city (pt.) 7,598 7,609 7,623 7,786 7,990 8,406 9,887 10,902 11,809 55.4% 4,211 8.3% 907

Cottonwood Heights city 33,433 33,585 33,607 33,914 34,188 34,418 34,305 34,289 34,285 2.5% 852 0.0% ‐4

Draper city (pt.) 40,532 40,454 40,606 41,598 42,383 43,423 44,315 44,865 45,136 11.4% 4,604 0.6% 271

Herriman city 21,785 21,778 22,543 23,431 24,476 26,439 28,662 30,837 35,385 62.4% 13,600 14.7% 4,548

Holladay city 26,472 30,127 30,149 30,423 30,672 30,890 30,818 30,813 30,831 16.5% 4,359 0.1% 18

Midvale city 27,964 27,982 28,311 28,671 30,283 30,814 31,695 32,548 33,035 18.1% 5,071 1.5% 487

Murray city 46,746 46,743 46,792 47,243 48,291 48,669 48,841 49,165 49,230 5.3% 2,484 0.1% 65

Riverton city 38,753 38,841 38,987 39,633 40,499 41,015 41,477 41,830 42,838 10.5% 4,085 2.4% 1,008

Salt Lake City city 186,440 186,439 186,575 188,195 189,498 191,437 191,103 191,438 193,744 3.9% 7,304 1.2% 2,306

Sandy city 87,461 89,299 89,381 90,307 91,184 91,943 92,702 94,007 95,836 9.6% 8,375 1.9% 1,829

South Jordan city 50,418 50,473 51,325 53,412 55,992 59,397 62,767 66,513 69,034 36.9% 18,616 3.8% 2,521

South Salt Lake city 23,617 23,572 23,577 23,911 24,264 24,626 24,614 24,676 24,630 4.3% 1,013 ‐0.2% ‐46

Taylorsville city 58,652 58,686 58,766 59,813 60,267 60,633 60,451 60,418 60,436 3.0% 1,784 0.0% 18

West Jordan city 103,712 103,609 104,070 106,504 108,283 110,056 110,755 111,762 113,699 9.6% 9,987 1.7% 1,937

West Valley City city 129,480 129,475 129,663 131,086 132,475 133,814 134,436 135,979 136,574 5.5% 7,094 0.4% 595

Balance of Salt Lake County 146,209 140,526 140,814 142,220 143,328 144,390 144,175 144,193 144,465 ‐1.2% ‐1,744 0.2% 272

San Juan County 14,746 14,749 14,797 14,787 14,900 14,988 15,208 15,707 16,895 14.6% 2,149 7.6% 1,188

Blanding city 3,375 3,350 3,365 3,366 3,465 3,558 3,669 3,776 4,036 19.6% 661 6.9% 260

Monticello city 1,972 1,981 1,969 1,972 1,971 1,970 1,980 2,058 2,213 12.2% 241 7.5% 155

Balance of San Juan County 9,399 9,418 9,463 9,449 9,464 9,460 9,559 9,873 10,646 13.3% 1,247 7.8% 773

Sanpete County 27,822 27,822 27,882 28,013 27,997 28,183 28,367 28,801 29,409 5.7% 1,587 2.1% 608

Centerfield town 1,367 1,373 1,376 1,368 1,363 1,361 1,368 1,388 1,416 3.6% 49 2.0% 28

Ephraim city 6,135 6,131 6,146 6,369 6,462 6,664 6,682 6,861 7,072 15.3% 937 3.1% 211

Fairview city 1,247 1,240 1,242 1,238 1,233 1,234 1,244 1,262 1,288 3.3% 41 2.1% 26

Fayette town 242 242 242 241 240 240 241 245 249 2.9% 7 1.6% 4

Fountain Green city 1,071 1,069 1,071 1,065 1,061 1,059 1,065 1,081 1,104 3.1% 33 2.1% 23

Gunnison city 3,285 3,285 3,337 3,329 3,289 3,288 3,309 3,297 3,325 1.2% 40 0.8% 28

Manti city 3,276 3,280 3,287 3,274 3,259 3,256 3,277 3,328 3,396 3.7% 120 2.0% 68

Mayfield town 496 515 516 513 511 510 513 521 531 7.1% 35 1.9% 10

Moroni city 1,423 1,427 1,430 1,425 1,419 1,420 1,431 1,452 1,482 4.1% 59 2.1% 30

Mount Pleasant city 3,260 3,259 3,265 3,251 3,237 3,235 3,256 3,300 3,363 3.2% 103 1.9% 63

Spring City city 988 991 993 987 984 982 988 1,002 1,023 3.5% 35 2.1% 21

Sterling town 262 293 294 292 291 290 292 296 302 15.3% 40 2.0% 6

Wales town 302 345 346 344 343 342 344 348 355 17.5% 53 2.0% 7

Balance of Sanpete County 4,468 4,372 4,337 4,317 4,305 4,302 4,357 4,420 4,503 0.8% 35 1.9% 83

Sevier County 20,802 20,801 20,772 20,867 20,716 20,823 20,821 20,940 21,267 2.2% 465 1.6% 327

Annabella town 795 785 785 790 786 793 794 800 809 1.8% 14 1.1% 9

Aurora city 1,016 1,016 1,016 1,021 1,015 1,022 1,022 1,030 1,043 2.7% 27 1.3% 13

Central Valley town 528 547 547 551 546 548 550 555 561 6.3% 33 1.1% 6

Elsinore town 847 850 850 854 847 851 851 857 866 2.2% 19 1.1% 9

Glenwood town 464 460 460 463 460 461 462 467 473 1.9% 9 1.3% 6

Joseph town 344 344 344 345 342 343 342 344 346 0.6% 2 0.6% 2

Koosharem town 327 329 323 320 313 314 327 319 331 1.2% 4 3.8% 12

Monroe city 2,256 2,265 2,268 2,280 2,266 2,277 2,277 2,294 2,321 2.9% 65 1.2% 27

Redmond town 730 730 730 732 731 736 734 737 740 1.4% 10 0.4% 3

Richfield city 7,551 7,569 7,536 7,564 7,503 7,539 7,522 7,551 7,723 2.3% 172 2.3% 172

Salina city 2,489 2,489 2,492 2,505 2,489 2,503 2,504 2,523 2,551 2.5% 62 1.1% 28

Sigurd town 429 427 427 431 427 429 428 432 438 2.1% 9 1.4% 6

Balance of Sevier County 3,026 2,990 2,994 3,011 2,991 3,007 3,008 3,031 3,065 1.3% 39 1.1% 34

Summit County 36,324 36,327 36,465 37,407 37,867 38,387 39,005 39,481 40,307 11.0% 3,983 2.1% 826

Coalville city 1,363 1,367 1,371 1,392 1,398 1,408 1,429 1,434 1,457 6.9% 94 1.6% 23

Francis town 1,077 1,062 1,068 1,092 1,102 1,121 1,156 1,261 1,347 25.1% 270 6.8% 86

Henefer town 766 785 790 807 823 837 863 864 871 13.7% 105 0.8% 7

Kamas city 1,811 1,844 1,854 1,889 1,929 1,958 2,031 2,057 2,109 16.5% 298 2.5% 52

Oakley city 1,470 1,470 1,476 1,504 1,520 1,547 1,582 1,594 1,624 10.5% 154 1.9% 30

Park City city (pt.) 7,547 7,560 7,634 7,776 7,850 7,939 8,081 8,146 8,299 10.0% 752 1.9% 153

Balance of Summit County 22,290 22,239 22,272 22,947 23,245 23,577 23,863 24,125 24,600 10.4% 2,310 2.0% 475

Tooele County 58,218 58,218 58,517 59,270 59,872 60,749 61,599 62,879 64,833 11.4% 6,615 3.1% 1,954

Grantsville city 8,893 8,921 8,970 9,123 9,406 9,621 9,837 10,012 10,459 17.6% 1,566 4.5% 447

Ophir town 38 44 44 45 47 48 48 54 55 44.7% 17 1.9% 1

Rush Valley town 447 444 448 456 463 475 473 475 479 7.2% 32 0.8% 4

Stockton town 616 632 634 632 631 630 638 641 647 5.0% 31 0.9% 6

Tooele city 31,605 31,605 31,740 32,071 32,118 32,360 32,581 33,122 33,762 6.8% 2,157 1.9% 640

Vernon town 243 248 249 252 255 262 270 280 294 21.0% 51 5.0% 14

Wendover city 1,400 1,400 1,402 1,399 1,396 1,402 1,398 1,399 1,407 0.5% 7 0.6% 8

Balance of Tooele County 14,976 14,924 15,030 15,292 15,556 15,951 16,354 16,896 17,730 18.4% 2,754 4.9% 834

Uintah County 32,588 32,584 32,446 33,275 34,682 35,737 36,958 37,789 36,373 11.6% 3,785 ‐3.7% ‐1,416

Ballard town 801 801 802 830 872 911 1,013 1,104 1,071 33.7% 270 ‐3.0% ‐33

Naples city 1,755 1,745 1,747 1,795 1,882 2,048 2,155 2,208 2,130 21.4% 375 ‐3.5% ‐78

Vernal city 9,089 9,111 9,057 9,266 9,885 10,406 10,859 11,114 10,681 17.5% 1,592 ‐3.9% ‐433

Balance of Uintah County 20,943 20,927 20,840 21,384 22,043 22,372 22,931 23,363 22,491 7.4% 1,548 ‐3.7% ‐872

22

Table 1.12


Estimates


Change from

2015 to 2016to 2016

April 1, 2010

Change from


Utah County 516,564 516,640 520,118 530,678 540,170 552,386 561,232 574,796 592,299 14.7% 75,735 3.0% 17,503

Alpine city 9,555 9,559 9,606 9,742 9,849 10,024 10,135 10,225 10,361 8.4% 806 1.3% 136

American Fork city 26,263 26,527 26,672 27,108 27,405 27,922 28,235 28,308 28,770 9.5% 250700.0% 1.6% 46200.0%

Bluffdale city (pt.) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐ ‐

Cedar Fort town 368 368 370 373 375 378 383 383 389 5.7% 21 1.6% 6

Cedar Hills city 9,796 9,787 9,835 9,944 10,060 10,201 10,295 10,256 10,374 5.9% 578 1.2% 118

Draper city (pt.) 1,742 1,818 1,832 1,875 1,916 1,973 2,021 2,147 2,192 25.8% 450 2.1% 45

Eagle Mountain city 21,415 21,931 22,228 23,207 23,718 24,728 26,121 27,299 29,202 36.4% 7,787 7.0% 1,903

Elk Ridge city 2,436 2,447 2,470 2,546 2,699 2,859 3,017 3,180 3,430 40.8% 994 7.9% 250

Fairfield town 119 119 120 121 121 122 125 130 136 14.3% 17 4.6% 6

Genola town 1,370 1,374 1,380 1,396 1,407 1,422 1,435 1,438 1,484 8.3% 114 3.2% 46

Goshen town 921 924 928 933 936 946 954 944 949 3.0% 28 0.5% 5

Highland city 15,523 15,577 15,660 16,089 16,485 17,076 17,522 17,970 18,647 20.1% 3,124 3.8% 677

Lehi city 47,407 47,772 48,186 49,801 51,512 54,361 56,289 58,428 61,130 28.9% 13,723 4.6% 2,702

Lindon city 10,070 10,045 10,102 10,255 10,407 10,572 10,687 10,800 10,939 8.6% 869 1.3% 139

Mapleton city 7,979 8,031 8,093 8,303 8,493 8,789 9,069 9,220 9,512 19.2% 1,533 3.2% 292

Orem city 88,328 88,329 88,747 89,705 90,706 91,712 91,803 94,333 97,499 10.4% 9,171 3.4% 3,166

Payson city 18,294 18,533 18,651 18,972 19,164 19,389 19,539 19,549 19,810 8.3% 1,516 1.3% 261

Pleasant Grove city 33,509 33,555 33,744 34,170 34,533 35,019 37,071 38,004 38,756 15.7% 5,247 2.0% 752

Provo city 112,488 112,493 112,945 114,681 115,451 116,366 114,793 115,123 116,868 3.9% 4,380 1.5% 1,745

Salem city 6,423 6,426 6,462 6,613 6,759 6,935 7,236 7,464 7,831 21.9% 1,408 4.9% 367

Santaquin city (pt.) 9,128 9,146 9,246 9,534 9,879 10,063 10,310 10,567 11,062 21.2% 1,934 4.7% 495

Saratoga Springs city 17,781 17,802 18,049 19,061 21,119 22,715 24,339 25,368 26,887 51.2% 9,106 6.0% 1,519

Spanish Fork city 34,691 34,744 35,175 35,905 36,352 37,044 37,593 38,038 38,861 12.0% 4,170 2.2% 823

Springville city 29,466 29,582 29,811 30,390 30,725 31,328 31,544 32,337 33,044 12.1% 3,578 2.2% 707

Vineyard town 139 103 106 140 191 404 611 3,184 3,953 2743.9% 3,814 24.2% 769

Woodland Hills city 1,344 1,354 1,364 1,391 1,414 1,445 1,465 1,481 1,527 13.6% 183 3.1% 46

Balance of Utah County 10,009 8,294 8,336 8,423 8,494 8,593 8,640 8,620 8,686 ‐13.2% ‐1,323 0.8% 66

Wasatch County 23,530 23,525 23,629 24,403 25,385 26,609 27,789 29,165 30,528 29.7% 6,998 4.7% 1,363

Charleston town 415 417 418 426 435 447 452 467 471 13.5% 56 0.9% 4

Daniel town 938 923 926 976 996 1,023 1,035 1,054 1,061 13.1% 123 0.7% 7

Heber city 11,362 11,410 11,452 11,728 12,332 13,017 13,631 14,289 14,969 31.7% 3,607 4.8% 680

Hideout town 656 656 658 695 718 751 782 832 875 33.4% 219 5.2% 43

Independence town 164 154 154 164 170 177 184 195 204 24.4% 40 4.6% 9

Interlaken town 157 157 167 172 179 186 198 209 5.6% 11

Midway city 3,845 3,868 3,884 3,945 4,064 4,245 4,475 4,670 4,898 27.4% 1,053 4.9% 228

Park City city (pt.) 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ‐100.0% ‐11 0

Wallsburg town 250 258 259 273 281 294 306 325 340 36.0% 90 4.6% 15

Balance of Wasatch County 5,889 5,682 5,721 6,029 6,217 6,476 6,738 7,135 7,501 27.4% 1,612 5.1% 366

Washington County 138,115 138,115 138,443 141,541 144,613 147,628 151,857 155,450 160,245 16.0% 22,130 3.1% 4,795

Apple Valley town 701 701 701 709 718 718 717 717 739 5.4% 38 3.1% 22

Enterprise city 1,711 1,708 1,711 1,735 1,753 1,758 1,780 1,798 1,823 6.5% 112 1.4% 25

Hildale city 2,726 2,745 2,774 2,912 2,927 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,945 8.0% 219 0.7% 20

Hurricane city 13,748 13,749 13,790 14,018 14,314 14,575 15,010 15,481 16,159 17.5% 2,411 4.4% 678

Ivins city 6,753 6,755 6,772 6,934 7,162 7,374 7,661 7,870 8,132 20.4% 1,379 3.3% 262

La Verkin city 4,060 4,060 4,064 4,117 4,178 4,150 4,162 4,190 4,246 4.6% 186 1.3% 56

Leeds town 820 814 814 821 828 828 837 841 852 3.9% 32 1.3% 11

New Harmony town 207 207 207 209 211 212 214 216 220 6.3% 13 1.9% 4

Rockville town 245 245 245 247 251 251 255 262 273 11.4% 28 4.2% 11

St. George city 72,897 72,763 72,879 73,980 75,317 76,708 78,468 80,129 82,318 12.9% 9,421 2.7% 2,189

Santa Clara city 6,003 6,145 6,149 6,292 6,414 6,507 6,670 6,837 7,065 17.7% 1,062 3.3% 228

Springdale town 529 529 531 542 546 546 548 556 570 7.8% 41 2.5% 14

Toquerville city 1,370 1,372 1,375 1,387 1,404 1,411 1,448 1,492 1,547 12.9% 177 3.7% 55

Virgin town 596 596 596 601 604 604 605 604 608 2.0% 12 0.7% 4

Washington city 18,761 18,761 18,861 19,981 20,849 21,893 23,341 24,268 25,339 35.1% 6,578 4.4% 1,071

Balance of Washington County 6,988 6,965 6,974 7,056 7,137 7,168 7,216 7,264 7,409 6.0% 421 2.0% 145

Wayne County 2,778 2,778 2,765 2,754 2,724 2,728 2,722 2,703 2,702 ‐2.7% ‐76 0.0% ‐1

Bicknell town 327 336 334 334 332 333 330 328 327 0.0% 0 ‐0.3% ‐1

Hanksville town 219 219 218 216 213 213 213 213 214 ‐2.3% ‐5 0.5% 1

Loa town 572 618 615 613 606 607 601 591 585 2.3% 13 ‐1.0% ‐6

Lyman town 258 258 256 255 251 251 251 250 251 ‐2.7% ‐7 0.4% 1

Torrey town 182 245 244 243 241 241 242 240 241 32.4% 59 0.4% 1

Balance of Wayne County 1,220 1,102 1,098 1,093 1,081 1,083 1,085 1,081 1,084 ‐11.1% ‐136 0.3% 3

Weber County 231,236 231,229 232,214 234,022 236,565 238,528 240,536 243,453 247,560 7.1% 16,324 1.7% 4,107

Farr West city 5,928 5,955 5,981 6,048 6,136 6,206 6,354 6,611 6,755 14.0% 827 2.2% 144

Harrisville city 5,567 5,575 5,620 5,720 5,807 5,898 6,056 6,205 6,376 14.5% 809 2.8% 171

Hooper city 7,218 7,179 7,280 7,497 7,676 7,912 8,065 8,207 8,466 17.3% 1,248 3.2% 259

Huntsville town 608 617 619 619 620 627 626 630 632 3.9% 24 0.3% 2

Marriott‐Slaterville city 1,701 1,690 1,695 1,703 1,714 1,722 1,729 1,743 1,751 2.9% 50 0.5% 8

North Ogden city 17,357 17,398 17,471 17,612 17,818 18,064 18,248 18,467 18,791 8.3% 1,434 1.8% 324

Ogden city 82,825 82,836 83,069 83,296 83,886 84,220 84,393 85,320 86,701 4.7% 3,876 1.6% 1,381

Plain City city 5,476 5,478 5,513 5,685 5,885 6,038 6,213 6,296 6,493 18.6% 1,017 3.1% 197

Pleasant View city 7,979 7,949 8,003 8,122 8,295 8,567 8,885 9,252 9,716 21.8% 1,737 5.0% 464

Riverdale city 8,426 8,473 8,502 8,531 8,594 8,622 8,638 8,663 8,710 3.4% 284 0.5% 47

Roy city 36,884 36,857 36,972 37,222 37,539 37,716 37,849 37,949 38,201 3.6% 1,317 0.7% 252

South Ogden city 16,532 16,559 16,607 16,659 16,761 16,807 16,880 16,948 17,094 3.4% 562 0.9% 146

Uintah town 1,322 1,315 1,319 1,320 1,325 1,326 1,326 1,327 1,333 0.8% 11 0.5% 6

Washington Terrace city 9,067 9,026 9,048 9,066 9,108 9,124 9,138 9,153 9,198 1.4% 131 0.5% 45

West Haven city 10,272 10,291 10,431 10,729 11,073 11,263 11,592 11,913 12,329 20.0% 2,057 3.5% 416Balance of Weber County 14,074 14,031 14,084 14,193 14,328 14,416 14,544 14,769 15,014 6.7% 940 1.7% 245


23

24

2. Long‐run Projections

Pamela S. Perlich, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

Overview

The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute prepared county level long‐term demographic and economic projections to support informed decision making in the state. This recently released work reveals five overarching statewide trends: growth and change, urbanization/globalization in metropolitan areas, declining fertility, sustained in‐migration, and aging. The story at a more local level is more complicated, with declining rural areas and a variation of growth across the metropolitan areas.

State Level Results For the foreseeable future, Utah will remain a place of growth and change, possibility, and prosperity. Utah is becoming ever more interdependent and interrelated with the outside world, principally through markets but also through technology and migrations of people. Product markets, financial markets, and labor markets connect people to each other through a vast web of relationships that are sometimes invisible, but nonetheless pervasive and transformative. The realities and possibilities emerging from these global interconnections continue to dynamically reshape Utah, presenting new challenges and opportunities. Our collective responses to these emerging and evolving conditions and realities will cumulatively shape opportunities for future generations. In a mere half century, the state will be home to nearly six million people residing in over 2.2 million households. Utah will continue to maintain its signature demographics as compared to the nation – a relatively young population with relatively large household sizes. However, it is also expected to continue the national trend towards lower fertility rates and an aging population. Fertility rates are projected to decline, but remain above replacement (2.1 children per woman). The share of the population 65 years and older is projected to double, rising from one in 10 to one in five Utahns by 2065.

Median age is projected to increase from 30.7 to 38.3 years. Net‐in migration to Utah will cumulatively contribute one‐third of the state’s population growth over the next 50 years, with the remaining two‐thirds resulting from natural increase (births exceeding deaths). Because migrants tend to be young, they are likely to bring children with them and have more children after arriving, contributing to the youthfulness of Utah. These in‐migrants will also continue to bring demographic and cultural diversity to the state.

Wasatch Front Metropolitan Area Over the next 50 years the greater Wasatch Front Region will continue to emerge as a global metropolitan area, as its combined population doubles to reach 3.7 million residents.

Salt Lake and Utah counties will develop and merge into a much larger, more integrated metropolitan area, adding 1.6 million people to reach a combined population of 3.3 million by 2065. The epicenter of this residential and commercial growth dynamic will gradually shift southward into Utah County, which will add one million new residents over the next half century to reach 1.6 million, nearly matching the population of Salt Lake County. Residential and commercial development will further enlarge the greater metropolitan area especially into Wasatch, Juab, Morgan, and Tooele counties. Vast expanses of previously undeveloped land will become part of the expanding urban area. Salt Lake County will maintain its role as the economic heart of the state with the continued dominance and prominence of its downtown as well as emerging employment concentrations in the northwest quadrant and point of the mountain. Increasing development costs will intensify the development densities within the county and will encourage overflow to more affordable development in adjacent areas. The population in

25

Salt Lake County will swell by another 600,000 to reach 1.7 million in 50 years. Northern portions of the greater Wasatch Front urban area, including Davis and Weber counties, will continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate rate. The impact of urbanization will expand into Cache and Box Elder counties.

Southwestern Utah Over the next half century, Washington County is expected to be the most rapidly growing of all counties, with its population more than tripling to exceed half a million. Southwestern Utah continues to have its own growth and development dynamics that are more similar to, and oriented towards, the economic engines of Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Southern California. It is heavily dependent on migration for its demographic growth. As this area of the state becomes increasingly urban, it will continue to attract retirees, but will diversify economically and demographically. Urbanization will intensify water and infrastructure challenges.

Rural Utah Much of rural Utah has a narrow, specialized economic base that often is tied to the highly cyclical extractive industries. Other natural resource industries face increasing pressure from globalization. The environmentally fragile and isolated areas of the state may not be suitable for the kind of economic development that results in growth. However, new possibilities in technology may make it possible for small populations to have

more economic sustainability and stability. These have yet to be fully explored and investigated. Other more isolated smaller communities have well‐established recreation, agriculture, or higher education institutions that provide the economic anchors that allow sustained livelihoods in these remarkable and beautiful places.

Challenges

With all this growth and change will come

transportation, air quality, water, infrastructure, education, technology, and public services challenges. New diversity in demographics, culture, language, socioeconomics, and generations create the necessity to reinvent and reimagine how we design and connect our communities.

Collectively we have never had such economic, cultural, technological, and demographic capacity. We are both witnesses to and participants in this transformation of Utah. The actions we take today shape how the future will unfold. These projections provide an analytic framework for understanding the overarching trends that influence Utah’s future.

26

Figure 2.1Utah Population Pyramid: 1960, 2015, & 2065

Male - 2015 Female - 2015Male - 1960 Female - 1960

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000048

12162024283236404448525660646872768084889296

100+ Male - 2065 Projection Female - 2065 Projection

Note: The top age group for 1960 is 85+Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 Baseline Projections

Figure 2.2Absolute Population Change by County: 2015‐2065

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 State and County Projections

27

Table 2.1

Utah Population Projections by Components of Change

2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065Absolute

Change

Percent

ChangeRank

Beaver County 6,710 7,408 8,017 8,606 9,068 9,649 2,939 44% 26

Box Elder County 52,971 60,984 67,664 74,440 80,334 86,218 33,247 63% 11

Cache County 121,855 146,338 171,969 195,325 212,908 234,744 112,890 93% 7

Carbon County 21,164 24,343 26,870 29,069 31,240 33,144 11,980 57% 16

Daggett County 1,113 1,232 1,387 1,502 1,603 1,723 610 55% 17

Davis County 336,091 385,800 428,627 474,028 510,712 544,958 208,867 62% 12

Duchesne County 20,821 24,277 26,596 29,178 31,205 33,153 12,332 59% 14

Emery County 10,659 11,550 12,507 13,345 14,226 15,364 4,706 44% 25

Garfield County 5,164 5,845 6,405 6,697 7,083 7,509 2,345 45% 24

Grand County 9,757 11,182 12,203 13,266 14,139 14,794 5,037 52% 21

Iron County 49,406 59,900 67,803 74,812 81,589 89,599 40,193 81% 8

Juab County 11,071 15,789 19,925 23,307 26,498 30,069 18,998 172% 4

Kane County 7,271 8,684 9,611 10,179 10,736 11,446 4,175 57% 15

Millard County 13,104 14,403 15,619 16,605 17,435 18,617 5,514 42% 28

Morgan County 11,080 15,613 19,349 21,357 22,678 24,605 13,525 122% 5

Piute County 1,631 1,699 1,872 1,938 1,995 2,149 518 32% 29

Rich County 2,353 2,535 2,773 2,992 3,158 3,380 1,027 44% 27

Salt Lake County 1,094,650 1,249,961 1,361,099 1,470,574 1,594,804 1,693,513 598,863 55% 18

San Juan County 15,902 17,932 19,330 20,562 21,775 23,316 7,413 47% 23

Sanpete County 29,088 33,696 38,580 41,682 44,609 49,590 20,502 70% 10

Sevier County 21,238 24,494 26,896 28,879 30,774 32,802 11,563 54% 20

Summit County 39,278 46,404 54,706 60,644 65,624 70,750 31,472 80% 9

Tooele County 63,262 83,922 102,338 115,463 125,291 134,272 71,010 112% 6

Uintah County 37,396 42,077 45,978 50,609 54,523 57,766 20,370 54% 19

Utah County 585,694 768,346 968,498 1,192,304 1,396,997 1,620,246 1,034,552 177% 3

Wasatch County 28,613 42,027 54,218 64,526 73,042 82,018 53,406 187% 2

Washington County 154,602 219,019 286,768 355,549 429,295 508,952 354,350 229% 1

Wayne County 2,725 2,985 3,363 3,593 3,792 4,130 1,405 52% 22

Weber County 242,737 286,593 317,344 344,025 368,635 389,334 146,597 60% 13

State 2,997,404 3,615,036 4,178,317 4,745,057 5,285,767 5,827,810 2,830,406 94%

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 State and County Projections. DemographyUTAH Population

Committee (DUPC) 2010‐2016 Population Estimates.

28

Table 2.2

Utah Demographic Projections by Selected Age Group

Year TotalAbsolute

Growth

Growth

Rate

Median

AgeTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

RateTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

RateTotal

Absolute

Growth

Growth

Rate

2015 2,997,404 30.7 666,974 1,770,860 305,273

2016 3,054,806 57,402 1.9% 30.9 676,459 9,486 1.4% 1,805,616 34,756 2.0% 318,894 13,621 4.5%

2017 3,123,607 68,801 2.3% 31.2 684,631 8,172 1.2% 1,845,065 39,449 2.2% 335,812 16,918 5.3%

2018 3,193,415 69,809 2.2% 31.4 693,269 8,638 1.3% 1,884,245 39,181 2.1% 354,259 18,446 5.5%

2019 3,260,765 67,349 2.1% 31.7 699,962 6,693 1.0% 1,921,806 37,560 2.0% 372,850 18,591 5.2%

2020 3,325,425 64,661 2.0% 31.9 705,631 5,669 0.8% 1,957,722 35,916 1.9% 391,442 18,592 5.0%

2021 3,389,467 64,042 1.9% 32.2 708,542 2,911 0.4% 1,993,455 35,734 1.8% 411,593 20,151 5.1%

2022 3,449,985 60,518 1.8% 32.5 712,480 3,938 0.6% 2,027,389 33,934 1.7% 431,420 19,828 4.8%

2023 3,507,364 57,379 1.7% 32.8 715,336 2,856 0.4% 2,060,074 32,684 1.6% 450,715 19,295 4.5%

2024 3,562,226 54,861 1.6% 33.0 717,354 2,019 0.3% 2,091,879 31,805 1.5% 469,232 18,517 4.1%

2025 3,615,036 52,811 1.5% 33.3 718,210 856 0.1% 2,122,790 30,911 1.5% 487,659 18,427 3.9%

2026 3,669,342 54,306 1.5% 33.4 719,678 1,468 0.2% 2,155,321 32,531 1.5% 504,883 17,224 3.5%

2027 3,723,441 54,099 1.5% 33.6 721,751 2,073 0.3% 2,187,581 32,260 1.5% 521,321 16,438 3.3%

2028 3,778,152 54,711 1.5% 33.7 724,517 2,766 0.4% 2,220,156 32,575 1.5% 537,054 15,733 3.0%

2029 3,833,308 55,155 1.5% 33.8 729,200 4,683 0.6% 2,252,342 32,186 1.4% 551,460 14,406 2.7%

2030 3,889,310 56,003 1.5% 34.0 736,180 6,980 1.0% 2,284,097 31,755 1.4% 564,649 13,190 2.4%

2031 3,946,122 56,811 1.5% 34.1 742,719 6,540 0.9% 2,318,155 34,058 1.5% 576,640 11,991 2.1%

2032 4,004,069 57,948 1.5% 34.3 750,959 8,239 1.1% 2,351,322 33,167 1.4% 588,852 12,211 2.1%

2033 4,062,343 58,273 1.5% 34.4 759,942 8,983 1.2% 2,384,111 32,789 1.4% 601,095 12,244 2.1%

2034 4,120,490 58,148 1.4% 34.6 770,334 10,392 1.4% 2,414,778 30,667 1.3% 614,121 13,026 2.2%

2035 4,178,317 57,826 1.4% 34.8 779,026 8,692 1.1% 2,445,419 30,641 1.3% 628,814 14,693 2.4%

2036 4,235,865 57,548 1.4% 34.9 787,890 8,864 1.1% 2,475,620 30,201 1.2% 643,797 14,983 2.4%

2037 4,293,208 57,344 1.4% 35.1 797,104 9,214 1.2% 2,506,546 30,927 1.2% 657,890 14,093 2.2%

2038 4,350,268 57,060 1.3% 35.3 806,637 9,533 1.2% 2,537,729 31,183 1.2% 671,534 13,644 2.1%

2039 4,407,155 56,887 1.3% 35.5 816,444 9,807 1.2% 2,568,245 30,516 1.2% 685,764 14,229 2.1%

2040 4,463,950 56,795 1.3% 35.7 826,429 9,984 1.2% 2,597,226 28,981 1.1% 701,572 15,809 2.3%

2041 4,520,678 56,728 1.3% 35.8 836,467 10,039 1.2% 2,624,934 27,708 1.1% 718,784 17,212 2.5%

2042 4,577,247 56,569 1.3% 36.0 846,377 9,910 1.2% 2,650,884 25,950 1.0% 737,883 19,099 2.7%

2043 4,633,568 56,321 1.2% 36.2 855,987 9,610 1.1% 2,675,796 24,912 0.9% 758,145 20,261 2.7%

2044 4,689,532 55,965 1.2% 36.4 865,150 9,163 1.1% 2,700,610 24,814 0.9% 778,604 20,459 2.7%

2045 4,745,057 55,525 1.2% 36.6 873,751 8,601 1.0% 2,724,245 23,634 0.9% 800,316 21,712 2.8%

2046 4,800,120 55,062 1.2% 36.8 881,707 7,956 0.9% 2,748,346 24,101 0.9% 821,637 21,321 2.7%

2047 4,854,748 54,628 1.1% 36.9 888,990 7,283 0.8% 2,772,936 24,590 0.9% 842,566 20,929 2.5%

2048 4,909,089 54,341 1.1% 37.1 895,633 6,643 0.7% 2,798,125 25,189 0.9% 863,081 20,515 2.4%

2049 4,963,211 54,122 1.1% 37.2 901,673 6,040 0.7% 2,824,301 26,176 0.9% 882,794 19,713 2.3%

2050 5,017,232 54,022 1.1% 37.3 907,179 5,506 0.6% 2,849,739 25,438 0.9% 903,462 20,668 2.3%

2051 5,071,236 54,004 1.1% 37.4 912,247 5,068 0.6% 2,875,047 25,308 0.9% 924,451 20,990 2.3%

2052 5,125,126 53,890 1.1% 37.4 916,968 4,722 0.5% 2,900,854 25,807 0.9% 944,955 20,504 2.2%

2053 5,178,833 53,707 1.0% 37.5 921,447 4,479 0.5% 2,927,033 26,180 0.9% 964,935 19,980 2.1%

2054 5,232,327 53,495 1.0% 37.6 925,810 4,363 0.5% 2,952,816 25,783 0.9% 985,028 20,092 2.1%

2055 5,285,767 53,439 1.0% 37.7 930,229 4,419 0.5% 2,976,951 24,135 0.8% 1,006,482 21,454 2.2%

2056 5,339,307 53,540 1.0% 37.7 934,856 4,627 0.5% 2,999,376 22,424 0.8% 1,029,384 22,902 2.3%

2057 5,393,004 53,696 1.0% 37.8 939,808 4,952 0.5% 3,025,642 26,266 0.9% 1,048,149 18,765 1.8%

2058 5,446,925 53,921 1.0% 37.9 945,186 5,378 0.6% 3,054,385 28,744 1.0% 1,064,146 15,997 1.5%

2059 5,501,088 54,163 1.0% 38.0 951,062 5,876 0.6% 3,084,598 30,213 1.0% 1,078,369 14,224 1.3%

2060 5,555,423 54,335 1.0% 38.0 957,453 6,392 0.7% 3,115,001 30,403 1.0% 1,092,054 13,685 1.3%

2061 5,609,943 54,519 1.0% 38.1 964,370 6,917 0.7% 3,142,583 27,582 0.9% 1,108,251 16,197 1.5%

2062 5,664,555 54,613 1.0% 38.1 971,800 7,430 0.8% 3,167,041 24,459 0.8% 1,127,225 18,975 1.7%

2063 5,719,145 54,590 1.0% 38.2 979,706 7,906 0.8% 3,192,733 25,692 0.8% 1,144,582 17,356 1.5%

2064 5,773,599 54,454 1.0% 38.3 988,034 8,328 0.9% 3,217,796 25,063 0.8% 1,162,154 17,572 1.5%

2065 5,827,810 54,210 0.9% 38.3 996,717 8,683 0.9% 3,241,337 23,542 0.7% 1,180,818 18,664 1.6%

Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2015‐2065 State and County Projections; DemographyUTAH Population Committee 2010‐2016 Population Estimates

Total Population School Age Population (5‐17) Working Age Population (18‐64) Retirement Age Population (65+)

29

30

3. Employment, Wages, and Labor Force

Carrie Mayne, Utah Department of Workforce Services

2017 Overview

While not as strong as 2016, Utah’s labor market performance was notably healthy in 2017, showing gains in both the volume of jobs and the number of labor force participants.

At the end of the year, approximately 69.4 percent of Utah’s population age 16 and over was either employed or actively seeking work. Over the Great Recession, Utah’s labor force participation lost roughly five percentage points, dropping from a decades‐long average of 72.1 percent to a low of 67.2 percent. In the early years of post‐recession recovery, labor force participation was slow to rebound; even prime working age adult participation failed to bounce back. 2017 appears to be a tide‐changing year with most age groups returning to pre‐recession participation levels. Momentum gains in entering and re‐entering the labor force manifested themselves in other economic indicators as well: wages, unemployment, and job counts, signifying tightness in the state’s labor markets.

Labor force entrants were efficiently absorbed into payrolls in 2017. On average, the state exhibited an unemployment rate of 3.5 percent, meaning that approximately 54,500 individuals were unemployed each month of the year. Additionally, the labor force grew by over 51,000, a signal of job seekers’ confidence in the state’s economy.

Overall, roughly 43,500 jobs were added to the state’s economy, an expansion of 3.5 percent. Six thousand fewer jobs were added in 2017 than 2016, but regardless, unemployment remained low throughout the year. The slightly fewer jobs added is likely a sign of tightening labor markets; labor supply in some fields may be lacking. As a result, employers may not be able to fill as many jobs as desired.

Every major industry group across the Utah economy added jobs in 2017. The decline in oil demand finally played itself out, with 2017 ending with a small employment increase over 2016. More significant gains were seen in industries such as construction,

which grew by 5.4 percent, leisure and hospitality, growing at 5.1 percent, and professional and business services up 4.2 percent. The mix of fastest growing industries exemplifies the state’s robust economic conditions, with incomes increasing, housing in high demand, and our tech sector blossoming.

Labor market gains have not been evenly distributed across the state. Accolades shining a light on the statewide economic conditions do not illustrate the struggles of some Utah counties where gains have been few. Efforts from policymakers and political leaders, reaching as high as the Governor’s office, seek to remedy this phenomenon to ensure 2018 is an economic success for all corners of the state.

2018 Outlook

Tightening labor markets leading to restrictions in growth were anticipated in 2016 but did not manifest until 2017. As such, 2018 may exhibit additional slowing though still posting labor market growth. Employers will seek to absorb every source of labor supply possible, thus keeping the state’s unemployment rate low. Wage growth may temper in comparison to 2017 but will still be driven by competition for skilled workers in key economic activity.

Forces external to the state may play a significant role in steering the labor market trajectory. As Congress builds out its final version of tax policy changes, it is yet to be determined to what extent those changes may have an effect on Utah consumers, employers, and job seekers.

31

Figure 3.1Annual Average Job Growth Rate for Utah

and the United States

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

Utah US

Figure 3.2Annual Unemployment Rate for Utah and the United States


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Utah United States

32

Figure 3.3Annual Average Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Unemployment Rate Wage Growth


Figure 3.4Labor Force Participation by Age Group

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

16‐19 20‐24 25‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64

2007

2011

2016

2017e


33

Table 3.1

Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry and Unemployment Rate

Year NumberPercent

Change

Absolute

Change

Unemployment

RateYear Number

Percent

Change

Absolute

Change

Unemployment

Rate

1950 189,153 3.1 5,653 5.5 1985 624,387 3.9 23,319 5.91951 207,386 9.6 18,233 3.3 1986 634,138 1.6 9,751 6.01952 214,409 3.4 7,023 3.2 1987 640,298 1.0 6,160 6.41953 217,194 1.3 2,785 3.3 1988 660,075 3.1 19,777 4.91954 211,864 ‐2.5 ‐5,330 5.2 1989 691,244 4.7 31,169 4.61955 224,007 5.7 12,143 4.1 1990 723,629 4.7 32,385 4.41956 236,225 5.5 12,218 3.4 1991 745,202 3.0 21,573 4.71957 240,577 1.8 4,352 3.7 1992 768,602 3.2 23,488 4.91958 240,816 0.1 239 5.3 1993 809,731 5.4 41,129 4.21959 251,940 4.6 11,124 4.6 1994 859,626 6.2 49,895 3.91960 263,307 4.5 11,367 4.8 1995 907,886 5.6 48,260 3.51961 272,355 3.4 9,048 5.3 1996 954,183 5.1 46,297 3.51962 286,382 5.2 14,027 4.9 1997 993,999 4.2 39,816 3.21963 293,758 2.6 7,376 5.4 1998 1,023,480 3.0 29,461 3.71964 293,576 ‐0.1 ‐182 6.0 1999 1,048,498 2.4 25,018 3.61965 300,164 2.2 6,588 6.1 2000 1,074,879 2.5 26,381 3.41966 317,771 5.9 17,607 4.9 2001 1,081,685 0.6 6,806 4.41967 326,953 2.9 9,182 5.2 2002 1,073,746 ‐0.7 ‐7,939 5.81968 335,527 2.6 8,574 5.4 2003 1,074,131 0.0 385 5.71969 348,612 3.9 13,085 5.2 2004 1,104,328 2.8 30,197 5.11970 357,435 2.5 8,823 6.1 2005 1,148,320 4.0 43,992 4.11971 369,836 3.5 12,401 6.6 2006 1,203,914 4.8 55,594 2.91972 387,271 4.7 17,435 6.3 2007 1,251,282 3.9 47,368 2.61973 415,641 7.3 28,370 5.8 2008 1,252,470 0.1 1,188 3.31974 434,793 4.6 19,152 6.1 2009 1,188,736 ‐5.1 ‐63,734 7.81975 441,082 1.4 6,289 6.5 2010 1,181,519 ‐0.6 ‐7,217 8.11976 463,658 5.1 22,576 5.7 2011 1,208,650 2.3 27,131 6.81977 489,580 5.6 25,922 5.3 2012 1,248,935 3.3 40,285 5.41978 526,400 7.5 36,820 3.8 2013 1,290,523 3.3 41,588 4.41979 549,242 4.3 22,842 4.3 2014 1,328,143 2.9 37,620 3.81980 551,889 0.5 2,647 6.3 2015 1,377,902 3.7 49,759 3.51981 559,184 1.3 7,295 6.7 2016 1,426,382 3.5 48,480 3.41982 560,981 0.3 1,797 7.8 2017e 1,469,900 3.1 43,518 3.51983 566,991 1.1 6,010 9.2 2018f 1,510,900 2.8 41,000 3.31984 601,068 6.0 34,077 6.5

Note: e = estimatef = forecast

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Research and Analysis

Total Payroll EmploymentTotal Payroll Employment

34

Table 3.2

Utah Labor Force, Nonagricultural Jobs and Wages

2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2015 2016 2017e 2018f

Civilian Labor Force 1,431,553 1,464,404 1,511,465 1,562,800 1,605,000 2.3 3.2 3.4 2.7Employed Persons 1,377,013 1,412,473 1,459,703 1,508,300 1,552,700 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.9Unemployed Persons 54,540 51,931 51,762 54,500 52,300 ‐4.8 ‐0.3 5.3 ‐4.0Unemployment Rate 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3U.S. Rate 6.2 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.1

Total Nonfarm Jobs 1,328,055 1,377,744 1,426,382 1,469,900 1,510,900 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.8Mining 12,160 10,372 8,494 8,500 8,800 ‐14.7 ‐18.1 0.1 3.5Construction 78,669 84,676 91,537 96,500 100,700 7.6 8.1 5.4 4.4Manufacturing 120,642 123,695 125,926 128,600 131,000 2.5 1.8 2.1 1.9Trade, Trans., Utilities 252,588 263,075 271,433 277,100 281,600 4.2 3.2 2.1 1.6Information 33,338 34,402 36,757 37,200 38,000 3.2 6.8 1.2 2.2Financial Activity 74,969 79,020 81,711 84,500 87,100 5.4 3.4 3.4 3.1Professional & Business Services 185,081 194,127 202,175 210,700 218,900 4.9 4.1 4.2 3.9Education & Health Services 174,313 182,273 190,935 197,400 204,000 4.6 4.8 3.4 3.3Leisure & Hospitality 128,064 133,741 138,591 145,600 152,000 4.4 3.6 5.1 4.4Other Services 37,530 38,689 39,405 40,800 41,900 3.1 1.9 3.5 2.7Government 230,623 233,674 239,418 243,000 246,900 1.3 2.5 1.5 1.6

Goods‐producing 211,471 218,743 225,957 233,600 240,500 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.0Service‐producing 1,116,506 1,159,001 1,200,425 1,236,300 1,270,400 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.8Percent Svc.‐producing 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84

U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth % 1.90 2.10 1.80 1.50 1.50

Total Nonfarm Wages (millions) 56,026 59,962 63,419 68,803 72,701 7.0 5.8 8.5 5.7Average Annual Wage 42,187 43,522 44,461 46,808 48,118 3.2 2.2 5.3 2.8Average Monthly Wage 3,516 3,627 3,705 3,901 4,010 3.2 2.2 5.3 2.8

Establishments (first quarter) 87,551 90,443 93,167 95,700 98,500

Note: Numbers in this table may differ from other tables as not all industrial sectors are listed here.e = estimatef = forecast

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Workforce Research and Analysis

Annual Percent Change

35

36

4. Personal Income

Joseph Mayans, Zions Bank Robert Spendlove, Zions Bank

2017 Overview

Utah’s total personal income in 2017 was an estimated $132.7 billion, a 6.3 percent increase from $124.9 billion in 2016. Utah’s estimated 2017 per capita income was $42,691, up 4.3 percent from $40,925 in 2016. Both measures of personal income growth in Utah were higher in 2017 than in 2016, in which total personal income grew by 5.2 percent and per capita income grew by 3.1 percent. In the last two years, Utah’s growth in total personal income and per capita income has been nearly twice the national average.

Total Personal Income Total personal income (TPI) is the sum of all individual personal income in a given region. There are three components of TPI: 1) net earnings by place of work, adjusted by residence; 2) income from dividends, interest, and rent (DIR); and 3) income from transfer receipts, such as social security, welfare, and pensions. The largest component of TPI is typically earnings by place of work, which consists of the total earnings from farm and nonfarm industries including contributions for social insurance. In 2017, Utah’s TPI was an estimated $132.7 billion, a 6.3 percent increase from $124.9 billion in 2016. Of Utah’s total personal income in 2016, 76 percent can be attributed to earnings by place of work. Of this amount, 72 percent came from wages and salaries, 18 percent came from supplements to wages and salaries, and 10 percent came from proprietors' income.

In 2016, Utah's income from Dividends, Interest, and Rent (DIR) increased to $23.71 billion and income from transfer receipts was $16.7 billion. Utah transfer receipts comprise a smaller portion of TPI than the national average (13.4 percent vs. 17.4 percent). Utahns rely more on wage earnings for income than their counterparts nationally.

In 2016, most nonfarm earnings in Utah were in the private sector: 83 percent of the earnings by place of work, compared to 82.7 percent nationally. The Utah

public sector accounted for 16.9 percent of nonfarm earnings, which is slightly higher than the national share (16.8 percent). Within the Utah private sector, the manufacturing sector (11.9 percent) was the largest source of earnings, followed by professional, scientific, and technical services (10.8 percent), and health care and social services (10.5 percent). At the national level, health care accounted for the largest percentage of private sector earnings followed by professional, scientific, and technical services, and manufacturing.

In 2016, most of Utah’s broad industry classifications experienced growth in earnings. The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector had the highest year‐over‐year growth of 16.1 percent. Other industries experiencing high growth included real estate and rental and leasing (14.3 percent); forestry, fishing, and related activities (10.5 percent); information (10 percent); and construction (9.9 percent).

The only sector to experience a loss in earnings in 2016 was mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, which fell 19.1 percent.

Per Capita Personal Income Per capita personal income is a region’s total personal income divided by its total population. Personal income and per capita earnings data are reported quarterly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Utah's estimated 2017 per capita personal income was $42,691, up 4.3 percent from the 2016 level of $40,925. Utah’s estimated 2017 per capita income is 84.7 percent of the national per capita income of $50,423.

Utah’s 2016 growth rate in per capita personal income was the second highest in the nation at 3.1 percent. The state’s personal income has been among the fastest growing in the United States due to the strong economy and robust labor market. Utah’s year‐over‐

37

year employment growth is consistently one of the highest in the county, and its unemployment rate is well below national levels.

Personal and Per Capita Income by County While Utah experienced strong personal income growth of 3.1 percent in 2016, it was lower than its 5.3 percent growth in 2015. Eleven Utah counties experienced a decline in per capita income in 2016, with Rich (‐12.3 percent), Duchesne (‐6.8 percent), and Uintah (‐5.8 percent) counties seeing the greatest decrease. The 18 other Utah counties experienced per capita personal income growth. Piute County experienced the strongest year‐over‐year growth in 2016, with 6.2 percent, while Washington and Utah counties experienced 4.1 percent growth. Salt Lake, Davis, Weber, and Cache counties all experienced greater than 3 percent per capita income growth.

In 2016, Summit County’s per capita income was $108,675, the highest in Utah, and more than two‐and‐a‐half times the state average ($40,925). Summit was the only county with a per capita income that exceeded the national average ($49,246). San Juan County ($22,260) had the lowest per capita income, which is only 54 percent of the Utah average.

2018 Outlook

Utah’s total personal income in 2017 is estimated to have grown 6.3 percent. This is up from 5.2 percent in 2016 and nearly double the national average. The state’s estimated 2017 per capita income growth also improved from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 4.3 percent in 2017.

With the ongoing economic expansion and robust labor market, Utah continues to attract economic migrants looking for work, a lower cost‐of‐living, and an attractive setting. However, even with the inflow of new workers, the strong pace of hiring and a low unemployment rate has challenged several industries with labor shortages. The competition to hire and retain a qualified workforce should continue to put upward pressure on wages and personal income.

As Utah looks to remain one of the top labor markets in the nation in 2018, preliminary forecasts show that both total personal income growth and per capita income growth will continue to see strong gains, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than the robust growth over the past two years.

38

Figure 4.1Utah Per Capita Income as Percent of U.S. Per Capita Income

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

80.5% 81.4%

81.8%

80.8%

80.3%

78.9%

78.6%

78.8%

78.5%

78.4%

80.1%

81.7% 82

.8%

82.6%

80.3%

78.7% 79.4% 80.3% 81.0%

81.1% 81.9% 83

.1%

84.7%

84.2%

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018f

Figure 4.2Utah vs. U.S. Total Personal Income Growth

‐6.0%

‐4.0%

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Utah United States

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group

39

Table 4.1

Personal and Per Capita Personal Income

Year UtahUnited

States

Utah as %

of U.S.Utah

United

StatesUtah

United

States

Utah as %

of U.S.

1970 $3,767 $855,078 0.44% 11.4% 8.1% $3,535 $4,196 84.2%1971 4,219 923,964 0.46% 12.0% 8.1% 3,833 4,468 85.8%1972 4,713 1,015,526 0.46% 11.7% 9.9% 4,154 4,853 85.6%1973 5,240 1,131,213 0.46% 11.2% 11.4% 4,483 5,352 83.8%1974 5,863 1,242,433 0.47% 11.9% 9.8% 4,891 5,824 84.0%1975 6,542 1,359,998 0.48% 11.6% 9.5% 5,302 6,312 84.0%1976 7,393 1,491,506 0.50% 13.0% 9.7% 5,810 6,856 84.7%1977 8,358 1,646,968 0.51% 13.1% 10.4% 6,349 7,494 84.7%1978 9,601 1,851,867 0.52% 14.9% 12.4% 7,037 8,338 84.4%1979 10,849 2,068,806 0.52% 13.0% 11.7% 7,661 9,212 83.2%1980 12,172 2,307,005 0.53% 12.2% 11.5% 8,266 10,153 81.4%1981 13,725 2,584,340 0.53% 12.8% 12.0% 9,056 11,262 80.4%1982 14,916 2,767,657 0.54% 8.7% 7.1% 9,572 11,947 80.1%1983 15,956 2,957,901 0.54% 7.0% 6.9% 10,004 12,652 79.1%1984 17,598 3,268,535 0.54% 10.3% 10.5% 10,847 13,860 78.3%1985 18,880 3,501,927 0.54% 7.3% 7.1% 11,492 14,719 78.1%1986 19,817 3,712,243 0.53% 5.0% 6.0% 11,918 15,459 77.1%1987 20,741 3,940,859 0.53% 4.7% 6.2% 12,360 16,265 76.0%1988 22,052 4,260,753 0.52% 6.3% 8.1% 13,053 17,426 74.9%1989 23,701 4,603,969 0.51% 7.5% 8.1% 13,894 18,653 74.5%1990 25,737 4,890,453 0.53% 8.6% 6.2% 14,866 19,591 75.9%1991 27,624 5,055,766 0.55% 7.3% 3.4% 15,521 19,985 77.7%1992 29,925 5,402,109 0.55% 8.3% 6.9% 16,292 21,060 77.4%1993 32,312 5,639,780 0.57% 8.0% 4.4% 17,021 21,698 78.4%1994 35,051 5,930,316 0.59% 8.5% 5.2% 17,879 22,538 79.3%1995 38,230 6,275,761 0.61% 9.1% 5.8% 18,981 23,568 80.5%1996 41,619 6,661,697 0.62% 8.9% 6.1% 20,126 24,728 81.4%1997 45,005 7,075,132 0.64% 8.1% 6.2% 21,231 25,950 81.8%1998 48,124 7,588,703 0.63% 6.9% 7.3% 22,218 27,510 80.8%1999 50,653 7,988,183 0.63% 5.3% 5.3% 22,988 28,627 80.3%2000 54,178 8,634,847 0.63% 7.0% 8.1% 24,138 30,602 78.9%2001 56,629 8,987,890 0.63% 4.5% 4.1% 24,797 31,540 78.6%2002 58,315 9,150,761 0.64% 3.0% 1.8% 25,084 31,815 78.8%2003 60,553 9,484,225 0.64% 3.8% 3.6% 25,657 32,692 78.5%2004 64,580 10,047,876 0.64% 6.7% 5.9% 26,891 34,316 78.4%2005 70,681 10,610,320 0.67% 9.4% 5.6% 28,759 35,904 80.1%2006 78,679 11,381,350 0.69% 11.3% 7.3% 31,154 38,144 81.7%2007 85,635 11,995,419 0.71% 8.8% 5.4% 32,965 39,821 82.8%2008 90,363 12,492,705 0.72% 5.5% 4.1% 33,932 41,082 82.6%2009 86,111 12,079,444 0.71% ‐4.7% ‐3.3% 31,619 39,376 80.3%2010 87,931 12,459,613 0.71% 2.1% 3.1% 31,683 40,277 78.7%2011 94,919 13,233,436 0.72% 7.9% 6.2% 33,705 42,461 79.4%2012 101,509 13,904,485 0.73% 6.9% 5.1% 35,545 44,282 80.3%2013 104,664 14,068,960 0.74% 3.1% 1.2% 36,058 44,493 81.0%2014 110,864 14,811,388 0.75% 5.9% 5.3% 37,685 46,494 81.1%2015 118,725 15,547,661 0.76% 7.1% 5.0% 39,699 48,451 81.9%2016 124,871 15,912,777 0.78% 5.2% 2.3% 40,925 49,246 83.1%2017e 132,731 16,433,000 0.81% 6.3% 3.3% 42,691 50,423 84.7%2018f 139,247 17,165,000 0.81% 4.9% 4.5% 43,981 52,253 84.2%

e = estimatef = forecast

Source: 1970‐2016 data from Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2017e and 2018f data from Utah Revenue

Assumptions Working Group.

Total Personal Income

(Millions of Dollars)

Per Capita Personal Income

(Dollars)Annual Growth Rates

40

Table 4.2

Total Per Capita Personal Income by County

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16Utah $33,705 $35,545 $36,058 $37,685 $39,699 $40,925 5.5% 1.4% 4.5% 5.3% 3.1%

Summit 76,072 89,046 90,762 94,363 107,158 108,675 17.1% 1.9% 4.0% 13.6% 1.4%Salt Lake 38,344 40,492 40,992 42,746 45,148 46,762 5.6% 1.2% 4.3% 5.6% 3.6%Morgan 40,158 41,964 41,575 43,082 44,621 45,755 4.5% ‐0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 2.5%Wasatch 35,315 36,860 38,133 39,997 41,676 42,331 4.4% 3.5% 4.9% 4.2% 1.6%Grand 37,611 38,828 38,370 39,236 41,080 41,958 3.2% ‐1.2% 2.3% 4.7% 2.1%Davis 34,878 37,111 37,080 38,181 39,941 41,339 6.4% ‐0.1% 3.0% 4.6% 3.5%Weber 32,564 33,185 33,511 34,847 36,437 37,691 1.9% 1.0% 4.0% 4.6% 3.4%Kane 31,481 32,330 32,123 34,458 36,807 37,134 2.7% ‐0.6% 7.3% 6.8% 0.9%Utah 27,604 29,593 30,454 32,554 34,796 36,215 7.2% 2.9% 6.9% 6.9% 4.1%Garfield 29,272 29,627 31,074 32,041 34,348 35,183 1.2% 4.9% 3.1% 7.2% 2.4%Daggett 30,021 33,983 33,251 33,683 36,730 34,879 13.2% ‐2.2% 1.3% 9.0% ‐5.0%Rich 27,916 29,403 34,619 39,689 39,389 34,549 5.3% 17.7% 14.6% ‐0.8% ‐12.3%Carbon 34,009 32,017 32,191 33,539 34,257 34,149 ‐5.9% 0.5% 4.2% 2.1% ‐0.3%Cache 29,384 30,225 29,791 31,134 32,798 33,896 2.9% ‐1.4% 4.5% 5.3% 3.3%Beaver 29,453 29,849 34,146 35,088 34,420 33,652 1.3% 14.4% 2.8% ‐1.9% ‐2.2%Box Elder 29,091 29,827 30,781 31,937 32,712 33,265 2.5% 3.2% 3.8% 2.4% 1.7%Tooele 29,735 30,527 30,350 31,142 32,325 33,240 2.7% ‐0.6% 2.6% 3.8% 2.8%Washington 26,180 27,159 28,343 29,999 31,616 32,924 3.7% 4.4% 5.8% 5.4% 4.1%Juab 26,072 27,025 28,678 29,605 32,093 32,829 3.7% 6.1% 3.2% 8.4% 2.3%Duchesne 34,444 38,050 37,458 39,452 34,790 32,430 10.5% ‐1.6% 5.3% ‐11.8% ‐6.8%Millard 28,998 28,977 31,246 32,197 33,596 32,080 ‐0.1% 7.8% 3.0% 4.3% ‐4.5%Wayne 27,678 26,615 27,264 30,112 31,683 31,401 ‐3.8% 2.4% 10.4% 5.2% ‐0.9%Sevier 26,387 27,403 27,723 28,804 30,111 30,644 3.9% 1.2% 3.9% 4.5% 1.8%Emery 30,747 28,353 28,902 29,803 30,834 30,316 ‐7.8% 1.9% 3.1% 3.5% ‐1.7%Uintah 33,071 34,304 33,409 34,620 31,059 29,251 3.7% ‐2.6% 3.6% ‐10.3% ‐5.8%Piute 23,223 22,494 24,116 25,020 26,454 28,104 ‐3.1% 7.2% 3.7% 5.7% 6.2%Iron 23,223 23,675 24,652 26,038 26,824 27,068 1.9% 4.1% 5.6% 3.0% 0.9%Sanpete 22,459 23,863 23,887 24,639 26,894 25,798 6.3% 0.1% 3.1% 9.2% ‐4.1%San Juan 21,969 21,855 24,056 23,329 23,232 22,260 ‐0.5% 10.1% ‐3.0% ‐0.4% ‐4.2%

Note: All dollar estimates are in current dollars (not adjusted for inflation).Last updated: November 16, 2017‐‐ new estimates for 2016; revised estimates for 2010‐2015.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

41

42

5. Gross Domestic Product by State

Dominique Miranda, David Eccles School of Business G. Thomas Randall, David Eccles School of Business

2016 Overview

Gross domestic product (GDP) by state details the value of final goods and services produced in a state. It is the state‐level counterpart to the national GDP. Conceptually, GDP by state is gross output less intermediate inputs, and as such it measures the economic activity within the state. Real GDP controls for inflation by using “chained” dollars (a weighted average of data in successive pairs of years), which is a more meaningful measure of GDP over time. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases GDP data annually in June. In 2017, BEA revised state‐level GDP measures for 2014‐2016.

Nominal GDP Utah's nominal GDP (measured in current dollars) was estimated to be $157.7 billion in 2016, up from $149.1 billion in 2015. This represents a growth rate of 5.8 percent, which ranks the first highest in the nation. The Utah GDP growth rates of 5.8 percent, 5.8 percent, 5.7 percent, and 4.1 percent in 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013, respectively, represent a marked improvement in the Utah economy compared to the average annual GDP growth rate of 0.5 percent between 2008 and 2010. However, the average Utah growth rate of the last four years is still below the 7.4 percent annual growth rate in state GDP that prevailed between 1998 and 2007.

Real GDP Utah's real GDP (measured in 2009 chained dollars) was $137.0 billion in 2016, up from $132.1 billion in 2015. This represents a growth rate of 3.7 percent, the third highest in the nation. Of Utah’s production in 2016, 87 percent came from private industry led by finance, insurance, and real estate.

Industry Growth The information industry (which accounts for 4.5 percent of Utah GDP) showed the strongest real GDP industry growth for the 2015 to 2016 period, growing from $6.3 billion to $7.1 billion, a 12.6 percent increase. The construction and education and health services industries had the next highest industry growth rates of 9.9 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively. The lowest growth industries in Utah in 2016 were agriculture, natural resources, and mining (‐23.7 percent) and manufacturing (3.0 percent).

2017/2018 Outlook

Utah’s current real GDP growth rate of 3.7 percent is above the average growth rate of 2.8 percent in the state in the last four years (2012‐2015). This is a marked increase from the negative Utah average real GDP growth rate of ‐0.7 percent during 2008‐2010. Utah’s GDP growth has become more aligned with the national economy recently, both in terms of growth trends and industrial composition. Agriculture, natural resources, and mining was the only industry group to experience a decline in 2016, going from $3.9 billion in 2015 to $3.0 billion in 2016. Besides this, eight out of eleven Utah industry groups have performed well, growing by 4 percent or greater (other services and manufacturing were below 4 percent). Potential federal trade policy changes and geopolitical instability could present challenges in the economy. Potential expansionary federal fiscal policy including tax cuts and infrastructure spending may present an upside risk. However, Utah’s strong and diversified industrial composition will continue to help our growth remain above the U.S. average, we expect Utah growth in real GDP to be in the 3.5–4.5 percent range.

43

1.9%

6.3%

11.3%

17.0%

4.5%

22.3%

10.9%

7.0%

3.4%

2.8%

12.8%

2.4% 4.

3%

11.8

%

16.5

%

4.9%

21.0

%

12.2

%

8.4%

4.1%

2.3%

12.4

%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

24%

28%

Ag., N

at. R

es., &

Mining

Construction

Man

ufacturing

Trad

e, Trans., &

Utilities

Inform

ation

Finan

cial Activities

Prof. & Business

Svcs.

Ed. &

Health Svcs.

Leisure &

Hospitality

Other Services

Governmen

t

Utah United StatesSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 5.1Percent of GDP by Industry: 2016

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Utah United StatesSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Figure 5.2Utah vs. United States Real GDP Growth

44

Table 5.1

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State

2016 Percent

Percent Change

of Total 2015‐2016United States $15,406,002 $16,041,243 $16,576,738 $17,312,381 $18,007,085 $18,511,499 100.0% 2.8%

Alabama 180,665 185,878 190,319 193,995 200,421 205,625 1.1% 2.6%Alaska 58,759 60,890 59,808 58,196 53,311 50,404 0.3% ‐5.5%Arizona 254,192 264,693 270,469 281,031 292,972 305,849 1.7% 4.4%Arkansas 107,287 109,226 114,456 118,068 119,320 121,383 0.7% 1.7%California 2,036,297 2,131,199 2,223,892 2,358,811 2,505,853 2,622,731 14.2% 4.7%Colorado 262,719 272,799 286,835 305,633 315,201 322,644 1.7% 2.4%Connecticut 234,233 239,462 240,975 244,628 255,517 259,918 1.4% 1.7%Delaware 59,937 60,628 61,109 66,115 69,582 71,453 0.4% 2.7%District of Columbia 107,738 109,685 111,890 116,358 121,528 126,478 0.7% 4.1%Florida 741,455 764,136 794,644 833,968 888,828 926,049 5.0% 4.2%Georgia 424,126 439,058 454,238 479,273 506,298 531,302 2.9% 4.9%Hawaii 70,017 72,532 74,630 77,155 81,745 84,671 0.5% 3.6%Idaho 56,744 58,105 60,854 63,305 65,921 68,377 0.4% 3.7%Illinois 679,776 711,370 721,876 750,212 777,243 796,012 4.3% 2.4%Indiana 291,570 299,996 311,150 325,904 335,720 347,249 1.9% 3.4%Iowa 148,843 158,246 162,305 171,115 180,440 185,183 1.0% 2.6%Kansas 136,884 140,964 143,471 148,468 151,314 150,576 0.8% ‐0.5%Kentucky 171,835 177,046 181,135 185,945 191,912 196,681 1.1% 2.5%Louisiana 236,248 241,378 234,608 243,474 240,663 236,999 1.3% ‐1.5%Maine 51,490 52,580 53,348 55,396 57,319 59,295 0.3% 3.4%Maryland 324,830 332,500 339,443 350,873 366,492 382,437 2.1% 4.4%Massachusetts 417,283 434,098 442,090 459,547 489,183 505,776 2.7% 3.4%Michigan 399,437 416,701 429,644 445,535 472,293 490,238 2.6% 3.8%Minnesota 282,397 292,920 304,063 317,653 328,403 339,096 1.8% 3.3%Mississippi 96,968 101,351 103,523 104,633 106,303 108,495 0.6% 2.1%Missouri 257,225 266,245 275,911 282,381 293,373 299,113 1.6% 2.0%Montana 41,187 42,349 43,229 45,064 45,867 46,227 0.2% 0.8%Nebraska 99,935 101,973 106,765 112,167 115,720 117,446 0.6% 1.5%Nevada 124,445 125,440 128,205 133,109 141,279 146,278 0.8% 3.5%New Hampshire 65,214 66,948 68,558 71,192 74,807 77,208 0.4% 3.2%New Jersey 493,343 514,662 531,072 542,789 562,474 575,331 3.1% 2.3%New Mexico 89,261 90,146 90,834 94,674 93,022 93,594 0.5% 0.6%New York 1,229,743 1,301,041 1,330,236 1,392,019 1,459,442 1,500,055 8.1% 2.8%North Carolina 427,974 438,350 454,945 475,420 501,671 521,621 2.8% 4.0%North Dakota 42,164 52,493 54,965 59,711 56,420 53,453 0.3% ‐5.3%Ohio 528,567 550,299 564,683 595,220 611,935 626,622 3.4% 2.4%Oklahoma 163,868 174,305 186,007 198,752 190,182 181,278 1.0% ‐4.7%Oregon 199,929 196,973 196,594 203,909 217,821 228,886 1.2% 5.1%Pennsylvania 615,411 637,896 659,792 685,510 708,011 719,834 3.9% 1.7%Rhode Island 49,716 50,997 52,187 53,803 56,204 57,529 0.3% 2.4%South Carolina 170,193 174,567 181,556 191,167 202,720 209,859 1.1% 3.5%South Dakota 42,253 43,056 44,560 45,647 47,356 48,354 0.3% 2.1%Tennessee 263,175 278,298 288,012 299,140 316,789 331,868 1.8% 4.8%Texas 1,344,733 1,437,893 1,536,472 1,612,242 1,608,403 1,599,283 8.6% ‐0.6%Utah 124,031 128,018 133,274 140,856 149,073 157,671 0.9% 5.8%Vermont 27,676 28,195 28,690 29,413 30,355 31,091 0.2% 2.4%Virginia 429,174 441,144 449,235 459,488 481,417 492,932 2.7% 2.4%Washington 370,149 388,922 405,561 426,592 451,943 476,770 2.6% 5.5%West Virginia 70,945 70,969 72,082 73,850 73,073 72,861 0.4% ‐0.3%Wisconsin 262,463 272,420 281,569 291,404 304,659 313,088 1.7% 2.8%Wyoming 41,499 40,201 40,968 41,575 39,285 38,328 0.2% ‐2.4%

Note: Last updated November 21, 2017


Millions of Dollars

201620152014201320122011

45

Table 5.2

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by State

2016 Percent

Percent Change

of Total 2015‐2016United States $14,833,679 $15,126,281 $15,348,034 $15,717,536 $16,148,378 $16,385,170 100.0% 1.5%

Alabama 173,760 175,420 177,049 176,559 179,161 181,897 1.1% 1.5%Alaska 51,004 53,719 51,361 49,498 49,649 46,975 0.3% ‐5.4%Arizona 247,414 252,545 253,743 258,384 263,475 270,205 1.6% 2.6%Arkansas 103,312 103,170 106,112 107,621 108,209 109,144 0.7% 0.9%California 1,962,926 2,013,611 2,064,534 2,150,580 2,245,876 2,320,345 14.2% 3.3%Colorado 252,256 257,622 265,880 278,523 288,015 291,251 1.8% 1.1%Connecticut 228,454 228,212 224,931 223,311 227,502 227,592 1.4% 0.0%Delaware 57,919 57,013 56,189 59,245 60,908 60,984 0.4% 0.1%District of Columbia 103,539 103,733 103,540 105,273 107,181 109,425 0.7% 2.1%Florida 723,317 729,372 744,576 765,249 795,408 814,309 5.0% 2.4%Georgia 413,457 418,312 424,360 438,440 451,827 465,411 2.8% 3.0%Hawaii 67,971 68,913 69,676 70,415 72,675 74,026 0.5% 1.9%Idaho 54,288 54,411 56,014 57,341 59,068 60,687 0.4% 2.7%Illinois 658,411 671,493 669,261 681,546 689,832 696,459 4.3% 1.0%Indiana 280,588 281,540 288,157 295,364 297,657 304,966 1.9% 2.5%Iowa 142,603 147,665 148,419 154,052 160,175 162,729 1.0% 1.6%Kansas 130,493 131,320 131,536 134,151 135,621 134,367 0.8% ‐0.9%Kentucky 165,712 166,852 168,306 169,171 170,832 172,821 1.1% 1.2%Louisiana 209,151 209,373 202,289 206,611 207,783 208,105 1.3% 0.2%Maine 50,180 50,106 49,810 50,641 51,070 51,869 0.3% 1.6%Maryland 316,774 318,146 318,888 322,879 329,175 337,345 2.1% 2.5%Massachusetts 408,409 415,832 415,030 422,350 438,208 444,680 2.7% 1.5%Michigan 392,653 400,063 405,793 412,155 424,257 433,521 2.6% 2.2%Minnesota 272,105 275,859 281,759 289,587 294,044 300,362 1.8% 2.1%Mississippi 92,821 94,880 95,465 94,599 94,762 95,944 0.6% 1.2%Missouri 250,034 252,620 256,738 257,488 261,247 262,026 1.6% 0.3%Montana 38,458 38,737 39,026 40,070 40,999 41,453 0.3% 1.1%Nebraska 94,619 93,957 96,352 99,891 101,996 102,888 0.6% 0.9%Nevada 121,118 119,411 120,027 122,010 126,318 128,059 0.8% 1.4%New Hampshire 63,952 64,278 64,641 65,831 67,544 68,623 0.4% 1.6%New Jersey 480,101 489,453 496,128 496,920 502,536 505,941 3.1% 0.7%New Mexico 83,457 83,547 82,696 85,016 86,353 86,486 0.5% 0.2%New York 1,194,300 1,231,862 1,228,488 1,249,602 1,275,126 1,279,691 7.8% 0.4%North Carolina 417,143 415,761 422,644 431,566 443,278 451,639 2.8% 1.9%North Dakota 39,117 47,816 48,981 52,522 51,186 48,612 0.3% ‐5.0%Ohio 510,190 518,583 523,587 541,014 547,136 553,224 3.4% 1.1%Oklahoma 151,302 159,785 166,762 176,092 181,486 174,033 1.1% ‐4.1%Oregon 198,298 192,598 188,806 192,330 201,467 209,035 1.3% 3.8%Pennsylvania 597,346 607,172 617,053 629,469 644,159 647,708 4.0% 0.6%Rhode Island 48,424 48,631 48,815 49,269 50,184 50,433 0.3% 0.5%South Carolina 166,389 166,858 170,217 175,277 180,703 183,933 1.1% 1.8%South Dakota 39,548 39,189 39,601 39,963 41,089 41,375 0.3% 0.7%Tennessee 257,138 265,211 269,453 274,060 282,287 290,580 1.8% 2.9%Texas 1,240,117 1,310,522 1,377,100 1,424,694 1,484,881 1,480,304 9.0% ‐0.3%Utah 118,254 119,739 122,685 126,926 132,109 136,979 0.8% 3.7%Vermont 27,027 26,963 26,913 27,036 27,279 27,472 0.2% 0.7%Virginia 419,724 422,269 422,275 423,182 432,332 434,409 2.7% 0.5%Washington 358,185 368,474 377,393 389,372 403,888 420,712 2.6% 4.2%West Virginia 66,935 65,925 66,261 66,655 67,126 66,367 0.4% ‐1.1%Wisconsin 256,396 259,863 263,282 267,318 272,968 276,415 1.7% 1.3%Wyoming 36,326 35,054 35,410 35,544 35,768 35,133 0.2% ‐1.8%

Note: Last updated November 21, 2017


Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars

201620152014201320122011

46

6. Utah Taxable Sales

Eric Cropper, Utah State Tax Commission

2017 Overview

Taxable sales (sales subject to sales tax) are an indicator of economic activity in the state. They indicate changes in both consumer and business spending on taxable goods and services and typically perform well in times of economic expansion and poorly during times of recession.

In 2017, total taxable sales in Utah increased by approximately 7.2 percent to an estimated $60.6 billion. A robust labor market and solid gains in wages and personal income were among the primary drivers of growth. In addition to solid growth in sales from existing taxpayers, additional tax collections from some online sellers who began collecting sales tax in 2017 bolstered growth. Other significant factors driving growth in Utah taxable sales include another strong year in the tourism industry and high consumer sentiment. Each major component of Utah taxable sales increased in 2017. Retail sales increased the most at 7.8 percent, followed by business investment purchases at 7.0 percent and taxable services at 5.2 percent.

Retail Sales Trends in retail sales are particularly important as retail sales is the largest component of total taxable sales, accounting for an estimated 52.2 percent of the total in 2017. Furthermore, retail sales are an important economic indicator as consumer spending drives much of our economy.

In 2017, retail sales was an estimated $31.6 billion, a 7.8 percent increase from $29.3 billion in 2016. This growth significantly outpaced the 4.4 percent increase estimated in U.S. nontaxable and taxable retail sales in 2017. Significant increases in Utah employment, wages and personal income were primary drivers of growth in consumer expenditures. The growing popularity of online sales has reduced growth in taxable retail sales in recent years. Online or remote sales from businesses that do not have a physical presence in the state and do not collect sales tax are not included in

taxable sales. However, in 2017 some online sellers, including Amazon, began collecting sales tax in Utah. The addition of these sales provided a significant lift to taxable retail sales in 2017.

Business Investment Purchases For the first time since 2014, business investment purchases increased over the prior year, rising by an estimated 7.0 percent to $8.8 billion in 2017. Sharp drops in investment in the oil and gas and mining industries led to business investment declines in 2015 and 2016. However, in 2017 investments in these industries are once again increasing. The largest increases in business investment purchases in 2017 were from the construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade industries.

Although a relatively small portion of total taxable sales (14.6 percent in 2017), business investment purchases have historically been the most volatile of the three major components of taxable sales. Business investment purchases declined the most of any component during the recession and are the only major component of taxable sales to not reach or exceed pre‐recession highs by 2017.

Taxable Services Taxable services increased by an estimated 5.2 percent to $16.9 billion in 2017. Tourism‐related industries (accommodation, food services, entertainment, and recreation) once again led growth in this sector. Since 2011, growth in taxable services has been steady with annual increases ranging from 4.2 to 6.0 percent.

2018 Outlook

Utah’s strong labor economy, combined with high consumer confidence, should drive another year of steady gains in Utah taxable sales. Total taxable sales are forecasted to increase by 5.4 percent to $63.9 billion in 2018. Although slower than 2017, growth in retail sales is expected to increase by 5.1 percent in 2018, 1.2 percent higher than the 3.9 percent

47

forecasted increase in U.S. nontaxable and taxable retail sales. Business investment purchases are forecasted to grow again in 2018, increasing by 5.6 percent, while taxable services should have another year of consistent growth, increasing by 5.1 percent.

Forecasted growth in 2018 is barring any significant changes in the broader macro‐economic environment. Taxable sales forecasts are sensitive to changes in economic and political conditions. Specific conditions with the potential to impact 2018 taxable sales are primarily external in nature and include, but are not limited to, monetary and tax policy decisions, national political climate, commodity prices, and geopolitical instability.

Any significant changes in these and other economic and political conditions could result in changes to employment, disposable income, and consumer confidence, which will in turn affect Utah taxable sales.

Summary Healthy economic conditions led to significant growth in taxable sales in 2017. Although risks to the projections exist, the outlook for 2018 is positive with steady growth in Utah taxable sales expected to continue in 2018.

48

Figure 6.1Percent Change in Utah Taxable Sales by Component

Source: Utah State Tax Commission

‐25%

‐20%

‐15%

‐10%

‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018f

Retail Sales Business Investment Purchases Taxable Services

49

Table 6.1

Utah Taxable Sales by Component

YearRetail

Sales

Business

Investment

Purchases

Taxable

Services

All

Other

Total

Taxable

Sales

Retail

Sales

Business

Investment

Purchases

Taxable

Services

All

Other

Total

Taxable

Sales2001 $15,751.9 $5,701.1 $9,482.0 $1,527.8 $32,462.72002 16,431.7 5,216.4 9,459.3 1,299.5 32,407.0 4.3 ‐8.5 ‐0.2 ‐14.9 ‐0.22003 16,729.9 5,114.7 9,414.2 1,268.4 32,527.1 1.8 ‐2.0 ‐0.5 ‐2.4 0.42004 18,128.5 5,976.5 10,035.1 1,287.4 35,427.5 8.4 16.8 6.6 1.5 8.92005 19,933.7 7,206.7 10,902.0 1,366.6 39,408.9 10.0 20.6 8.6 6.1 11.22006 22,463.7 8,847.8 12,124.7 1,620.7 45,056.9 12.7 22.8 11.2 18.6 14.32007 23,998.3 9,432.3 12,717.5 1,646.8 47,794.8 6.8 6.6 4.9 1.6 6.12008 22,658.7 8,980.7 12,811.0 1,483.2 45,933.6 ‐5.6 ‐4.8 0.7 ‐9.9 ‐3.92009 20,328.5 6,863.7 11,789.5 1,499.1 40,481.0 ‐10.3 ‐23.6 ‐8.0 1.1 ‐11.92010 20,475.1 7,333.3 12,114.5 1,464.5 41,387.4 0.7 6.8 2.8 ‐2.3 2.22011 21,800.8 8,063.5 12,676.4 1,556.4 44,097.0 6.5 10.0 4.6 6.3 6.52012 23,512.2 8,780.1 13,438.7 1,800.2 47,531.2 7.9 8.9 6.0 15.7 7.82013 24,943.6 8,352.4 14,008.4 2,099.6 49,404.0 6.1 ‐4.9 4.2 16.6 3.92014 26,192.7 8,698.6 14,801.9 2,016.0 51,709.2 5.0 4.1 5.7 ‐4.0 4.72015 27,801.2 8,399.8 15,448.8 2,283.4 53,933.3 6.1 ‐3.4 4.4 13.3 4.32016 29,302.8 8,255.1 16,102.3 2,842.2 56,502.4 5.4 ‐1.7 4.2 24.5 4.82017e 31,600.1 8,833.9 16,935.1 3,215.3 60,584.4 7.8 7.0 5.2 13.1 7.22018f 33,197.2 9,332.7 17,793.4 3,553.9 63,877.3 5.1 5.6 5.1 10.5 5.4

e = estimatef = forecast


Note: The major components of taxable sales are composed of NAICS categories as follows: Retail Trade Sales: All retail categories in

NAICS Codes 44‐45; Business Investment Purchases: Agriculture Forestry Fishing & Hunting, Mining Quarrying & Oil & Gas Extraction,

Construction, Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, and Transportation & Warehousing; Taxable Services: Information, Finance &

Insurance, Real Estate Rental & Leasing, Professional Scientific & Technical Services, Management of Companies & Enterprises,

Administration & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services, Educational Services, Health Care & Social Assistance,

Arts Entertainment & Recreation, Accommodation, Food Services & Drinking Places, Other Services, and Utilities; All Other:

composed of all other NAICS categories as well as Private Motor Vehicle Sales, Special Event Sales, Nonclassifiable Sales and Prior

Period Payments & Refunds.

Percent ChangeMillions of Dollars

50

Table 6.2

Utah Taxable Sales by County

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Utah 44,097.0 47,531.2 49,404.0 51,709.2 53,933.3 56,502.4 4.8 100.0

Beaver $106.1 $83.2 $108.8 $105.3 $108.6 $119.8 10.3 0.2Box Elder 585.7 526.0 565.5 565.8 642.2 705.4 9.8 1.2Cache 1,335.7 1,370.4 1,446.5 1,514.7 1,631.3 1,726.7 5.9 3.1Carbon 464.3 420.0 403.6 425.1 390.4 362.1 ‐7.3 0.6Daggett 13.2 15.4 18.7 16.4 18.3 16.7 ‐9.1 0.0Davis 3,784.5 4,001.7 4,268.2 4,550.8 4,897.8 5,141.6 5.0 9.1Duchesne 626.9 830.3 876.6 895.5 443.7 370.9 ‐16.4 0.7Emery 178.4 141.9 127.7 139.4 127.6 135.4 6.1 0.2Garfield 84.8 122.0 111.1 120.7 128.9 139.3 8.1 0.2Grand 279.4 310.2 336.3 390.3 367.7 389.7 6.0 0.7Iron 568.8 593.5 642.5 656.6 723.5 784.6 8.4 1.4Juab 100.4 111.1 89.2 96.9 107.0 108.6 1.4 0.2Kane 148.0 152.4 157.3 164.7 180.6 195.5 8.2 0.3Millard 168.8 159.5 179.8 193.3 169.0 181.6 7.5 0.3Morgan 75.9 72.9 75.6 93.3 104.4 107.1 2.6 0.2Piute 8.3 8.3 8.2 10.0 9.9 9.1 ‐8.5 0.0Rich 103.0 26.8 29.7 19.6 36.5 39.8 9.0 0.1Salt Lake 19,672.2 21,387.8 21,986.1 22,941.0 24,256.5 25,415.5 4.8 45.0San Juan 205.5 205.1 212.1 184.6 150.4 156.5 4.0 0.3Sanpete 195.9 209.3 211.0 228.7 237.5 246.4 3.8 0.4Sevier 316.7 323.2 347.2 376.4 366.3 365.0 ‐0.4 0.6Summit 1,324.3 1,360.9 1,469.8 1,570.9 1,743.7 1,869.4 7.2 3.3Tooele 600.9 656.3 618.9 633.7 701.8 694.3 ‐1.1 1.2Uintah 1,353.8 1,649.6 1,453.7 1,470.0 974.5 725.5 ‐25.5 1.3Utah 6,264.4 6,886.1 7,186.9 7,555.1 8,151.1 8,679.1 6.5 15.4Wasatch 296.2 336.5 386.2 429.5 474.0 525.0 10.7 0.9Washington 2,121.5 2,306.4 2,555.2 2,733.7 2,970.9 3,247.1 9.3 5.7Wayne 33.8 34.6 39.4 39.5 43.6 47.8 9.8 0.1Weber 3,166.5 3,342.0 3,527.3 3,719.5 3,927.0 4,115.4 4.8 7.3Other* ‐87.1 ‐112.0 ‐35.2 ‐132.0 ‐151.6 ‐118.5 ‐21.8 ‐0.2


Percent Change

2015‐2016

% of Total

2016

Note: "Other*" includes taxable sales and refunds where a county nexus cannot be determined. These refunds exceeded sales

each year, resulting in negative values for net taxable sales where no county was identified.

Millions of Dollars

51

52

7. State Tax Collections

Leslee Katayama, Utah State Tax Commission

2017 Overview

Utah continues to experience healthy economic growth with tax collections rising steadily each year since the Great Recession. Utah’s economy once again outpaced the nation in employment and wage growth. Consistent with this picture, FY 2017 total unrestricted state revenues jumped 6.1 percent following a 2.8 percent increase in FY 2016. With the conclusion of FY 2017, Utah is on pace to post its seventh year of uninterrupted growth in unrestricted revenues from General, Education, and Transportation Funds and mineral lease revenues. Total FY 2017 unrestricted revenue from these sources totaled $6,970.2 million, exceeding the February 2017 forecast (adjusted for legislation) by $104.8 million. General Fund revenues increased 4.5 percent while Education Fund revenues rose 6.1 percent. Revenues to the Transportation Fund jumped 12.3 percent.

General Fund Revenues from all major taxes deposited into the General Fund, except for severance and beer, cigarette and tobacco taxes, posted positive gains in FY 2017. Unrestricted revenues in the General Fund totaled $2,341.3 million in FY 2017, an increase of 4.5 percent compared to FY 2016. FY 2017 unrestricted sales tax revenue rose 4.4 percent while total sales tax, including earmarked revenue, rose 5.2 percent. Increases in sales tax revenue were a result of overall positive economic conditions and a strong labor market in Utah. One item to note is the increase in sales tax earmarks over the years. Sales tax earmarks totaled $585.4 million in FY 2017, up 7.8 percent compared to FY 2016. In FY 2011, total earmarked sales tax revenue amounted to $189.2 million. FY 2017 unrestricted insurance premium tax revenue increased 9.3 percent. Total insurance premium taxes, including unrestricted and earmarked funds, increased 2.5 percent. Liquor profit revenue edged up 2.2 percent in FY 2017. Continuing weakness in prices and production in Utah's natural resource

extractive industries led to a 55.2 percent decline in oil and gas severance tax unrestricted revenues. Mining severance tax revenues were down 1.9 percent in FY 2017 following a large drop in FY 2016.

Education Fund Total Education Fund revenues rose 6.1 percent, to $3,980.1 million in FY 2017. This was largely the result of a 7.1 percent increase in individual income taxes. FY 2017 gross final payments grew $63.2 million or 6.1 percent. The strength of Utah’s labor market was evident in withholding payments which jumped 7.5 percent in FY 2017. Refunds increased 7.3 percent to $468.4 million in FY 2017. FY 2017 corporate tax revenue decreased 2.9 percent following a 9.5 percent drop in FY 2016. Mineral production withholding fell 3.0 percent, mirroring the declines in the natural resource sector.

Transportation Fund Total Transportation Fund revenues, which jumped 12.3 percent to $573.5 million in FY 2017, were influenced by recent legislation which increased the tax rate on both motor and special fuels by 4.9 cents (effective January 1, 2016). It changed the tax rate from a flat 24.5 cents per gallon to a percentage of the average statewide rack price of a gallon of motor fuel, with the tax rate changing at the beginning of each calendar year. The new calculated tax rate allows motor fuel tax rates to rise when gas prices increase. Collections from motor fuel and special fuel taxes increased 14.3 and 16.8 percent respectively in FY 2017, as a result of tax rate increases and increases in consumption due to relatively low fuel prices. Other Transportation Fund revenue sources posted 0.1 percent growth.

Potential Risks to the Economy While Utah has benefited from a lengthy period of economic expansion, there is always the potential for national and international developments to negatively

53

impact the state’s economy. Potential disruption that could impact tax collections include a correction in stock market or asset values leading to a decline in business and consumer confidence, fiscal or monetary policy changes such as rising interest rates or tax policy changes, declining economic activity in China or Europe, military conflicts, terrorist attacks, weak U.S. labor markets, and negative developments in a particular economic sector. In addition, legislative changes have the potential to impact tax collections. For instance, legislation is pending in Congress that would allow states to collect sales and use tax from remote sellers with no nexus (physical presence) in the state.

2018 Outlook

The FY 2018 outlook for revenues is positive with total unrestricted revenue projected to rise 5.6 percent. Forecasted economic indicators remain strong with personal income anticipated to increase 4.9 percent in FY 2018, boosting sales and income tax revenue.

The General Fund is expected to grow 5.5 percent (5.8 percent including earmarks). Unrestricted sales taxes are forecasted to increase 5.6 percent (6.0 percent including earmarks). Total Education Fund revenues are expected to grow 6.3 percent with its largest component, individual income taxes, increasing 6.7 percent. Although difficult to forecast, FY 2018 corporate tax revenue is expected to rise 2.0 percent as U.S. corporate profits are forecasted to rise 5.1 percent in 2017. Revenues in the Transportation Fund are expected to edge up 1.5 percent in FY 2018.

Summary FY 2017 was the seventh year of consecutive growth in total unrestricted tax revenues. Healthy growth in tax collections is expected to continue in FY 2018 barring any major economic disruptions.

54

8.0

10.2

7.16.46.3

‐1.5

3.5

‐3.7

19.4

5.7

0.0

2.1

8.9

3.5

1.20.6

3.05.0

9.68.87.4

6.14.8

2.9

8.0

0.7

‐7.2

‐1.0

3.2

9.0

15.3

6.1

‐3.9

‐13.9

‐8.5

9.1

2.3

7.8

0.0

5.6

2.1

4.0 3.9 2.5

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

20

251976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018f

2019f

Percen

t Chan

ge

Fiscal Years

The annual average rate of growth in inflation‐adjusted unrestricted revenues (GDP Deflator) from FY 1976 to FY 2017 was 3.7%.

Figure 7.1Inflation‐Adjusted Percentage Change in

Unrestricted General and Education Fund Revenue

f =forecastSource: Utah State Tax Commission

‐$200

‐$100

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Millions of Dollars

Fiscal Years

Inflation‐Adjusted Actual (Nominal)

Figure 7.2Actual and Inflation‐Adjusted Unrestricted RevenueSurplus/Deficit for the General and Education Fund

Note: Inflation‐adjusted amounts are in 2009 dollars, adjusted from nominal amounts using the GDP implicit price deflator.Source: Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018f

2019f

Percen

t of Total Reven

ues

Fiscal Years

Others Sales Income

*Total State Unrestricted Revenues includes General Fund, Education Fund, and Transportation Fund revenues. Mineral lease revenues are not included. The "Others" category includes all other revenue sources in those funds except for Sales and Income tax.f = forecastSource: Utah State Tax Commission and Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Figure 7.3Sales Tax, Income Tax, and All Other Unrestricted Revenues as a Percent of

Total State Unrestricted Revenues

56

Table 7.1

Fiscal Year Revenue Collections ($ millions)

Revenue Source 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f

Sales and Use Tax $1,441.3 $1,444.0 $1,501.9 $1,634.5 $1,806.3 $1,857.8 $1,739.4 $1,547.5 $1,402.7 $1,601.4 $1,582.5 $1,615.9 $1,656.8 $1,715.0 $1,778.5 1,856.8 1960.9 2037.3

Earmarked Sales and Use Tax 43.2 29.0 39.1 42.0 100.2 250.0 325.3 276.3 301.0 189.2 332.1 422.1 452.5 495.8 543.1 585.4 628.6 654.2

Total Sales and Use Tax 1,484.5 1,472.9 1,541.1 1,676.5 1,906.4 2,107.8 2,064.7 1,823.8 1,703.7 1,790.6 1,914.6 2,038.0 2,109.3 2,210.7 2,321.6 2,442.1 2,589.5 2,691.5

Cable/Satellite Excise Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 20.5 20.8 24.1 24.8 25.3 25.4 28.7 26.9 26.0 28.4 28.6 31.3 31.4 31.9

Liquor Profits 32.6 31.7 37.7 38.1 47.3 53.2 59.7 59.7 58.4 62.3 70.8 81.4 87.8 95.4 104.0 106.3 117.3 124.4

Insurance Premiums 56.6 59.0 62.4 67.4 71.4 71.8 77.2 83.0 80.0 75.9 84.4 89.6 91.2 92.4 111.7 122.0 126.8 131.7

Beer, Cigarette, and Tobacco 60.0 54.2 62.8 61.9 60.8 62.4 62.8 60.6 58.7 125.5 125.4 120.9 113.1 115.9 118.3 116.3 114.9 113.8

Oil and Gas Severance Tax 18.9 26.7 36.7 53.5 71.5 65.4 65.5 71.0 56.2 59.9 65.5 53.2 89.2 69.7 20.8 9.3 15.3 20.1

Metal Severance Tax 5.0 5.8 6.0 11.4 17.0 23.6 26.5 14.6 20.9 27.1 25.4 16.9 15.9 16.3 7.0 6.8 8.0 9.4

Inheritance Tax 9.4 33.0 9.7 3.0 7.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investment Income 9.7 6.5 5.5 13.6 40.0 83.5 62.8 25.1 5.3 2.4 5.6 6.0 5.0 6.6 7.9 14.3 16.1 17.5

General Fund Other 45.3 46.7 45.6 46.4 50.8 58.0 53.4 54.4 80.3 72.3 95.9 80.4 81.8 90.9 69.8 83.8 84.0 85.4

Property and Energy Credit ‐5.3 ‐5.5 ‐5.6 ‐5.9 ‐5.6 ‐6.2 ‐6.4 ‐6.2 ‐6.4 ‐6.0 ‐6.8 ‐6.3 ‐6.0 ‐5.4 ‐6.0 ‐5.6 ‐5.7 ‐5.8

General Fund Total 1,673.5 1,702.1 1,762.7 1,935.4 2,187.5 2,290.9 2,165.1 1,934.6 1,781.4 2,046.3 2,077.5 2,084.9 2,160.8 2,225.2 2,240.7 2,341.3 2,469.0 2,565.9

GF & Earmarks Total 1,716.7 1,731.1 1,801.8 1,977.4 2,287.6 2,540.9 2,490.4 2,210.9 2,082.4 2,235.4 2,409.6 2,507.0 2,613.3 2,721.0 2,783.8 2,926.7 3,097.6 3,220.1

Individual Income Tax 1,605.3 1,572.5 1,692.3 1,926.6 2,277.6 2,561.4 2,598.8 2,319.6 2,104.6 2,298.2 2,459.4 2,852.0 2,889.8 3,157.7 3,370.3 3,609.5 3,850.1 4,061.5

Withholding 1,571.9 1,544.6 1,617.9 1,741.6 1,929.6 2,124.0 2,138.2 1,962.3 1,942.1 2,035.3 2,151.8 2,313.7 2,404.8 2,569.5 2,769.1 2,976.8 3,175.0 3352.42

Final Payments 396.1 381.5 432.2 549.8 745.2 902.1 962.7 753.4 613.8 669.3 689.0 922.0 882.2 991.1 1,037.9 1,101.1 1,173.1 1,232.1

Refunds ‐362.7 ‐353.6 ‐357.8 ‐364.9 ‐397.2 ‐464.7 ‐502.1 ‐396.1 ‐451.3 ‐406.4 ‐381.4 ‐383.7 ‐397.3 ‐402.9 ‐436.6 ‐468.4 ‐498.0 ‐523.0

Corporate Taxes 119.0 156.3 158.2 204.2 366.6 414.1 405.1 255.4 258.4 260.7 268.9 338.2 313.5 373.9 338.3 328.5 335.0 344.4

Mineral Production Withholding 13.2 7.2 17.3 16.7 22.7 23.1 23.8 32.5 24.6 26.7 28.3 26.1 32.4 27.1 15.6 15.1 16.4 17.1

Education Fund Other 5.6 5.0 4.5 0.0 9.8 18.2 20.1 19.3 24.6 26.6 25.2 27.8 23.2 21.5 25.4 27.1 28.8 29.6

Education Fund Total 1,743.0 1,741.0 1,872.2 2,147.6 2,676.8 3,016.8 3,047.8 2,626.8 2,412.2 2,612.2 2,781.9 3,244.1 3,258.9 3,580.2 3,749.6 3,980.1 4,230.4 4,452.6

GF/EF Total 3,416.5 3,443.1 3,634.9 4,083.0 4,864.2 5,307.7 5,212.9 4,561.4 4,193.6 4,658.5 4,859.3 5,329.0 5,419.7 5,805.4 5,990.3 6,321.4 6,699.4 7,018.5

GF/EF & Earmarks Total 3,459.7 3,472.0 3,674.0 4,125.0 4,964.4 5,557.7 5,538.2 4,837.7 4,494.6 4,847.7 5,191.4 5,751.1 5,872.2 6,301.2 6,533.4 6,906.8 7,328.0 7,672.7

Motor Fuel Tax 237.9 236.6 239.9 241.5 240.4 254.7 250.7 235.5 243.3 252.5 253.0 256.9 256.8 261.7 305.2 348.8 354.7 361.6

Special Fuel Tax 84.4 84.5 86.2 93.8 101.1 111.1 113.0 101.2 94.4 102.2 104.1 101.4 101.7 100.1 115.5 134.9 138.6 141.3

Other 62.8 65.4 64.9 70.0 76.6 78.8 82.4 85.4 73.6 80.7 79.2 81.2 82.0 85.1 89.7 89.8 89.1 90.9

Transportation Fund Total 385.1 386.6 391.0 405.3 418.1 444.6 446.0 422.1 411.4 435.4 436.2 439.4 440.5 446.9 510.5 573.5 582.4 593.8

Mineral Lease Payments 36.5 53.1 74.8 92.0 170.0 160.9 150.3 189.1 147.2 152.8 194.0 136.9 167.6 141.7 71.4 75.3 77.8 82.4

Total 3,838.1 3,882.7 4,100.7 4,580.3 5,452.4 5,913.2 5,809.2 5,172.7 4,752.2 5,246.7 5,489.5 5,905.3 6,027.8 6,394.1 6,572.2 6,970.2 7,359.5 7,694.7

Total & Eamarks 3,881.3 3,911.7 4,139.8 4,622.3 5,552.6 6,163.2 6,134.6 5,449.0 5,053.2 5,435.9 5,821.6 6,327.4 6,480.3 6,889.8 7,115.3 7,555.6 7,988.1 8,348.9

Source: Utah State Tax Commission & Governor's Office of Management and Budget.

57

Table 7.2

Fiscal Year Revenue Collections (annual percent change)

Revenue Source 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f

Sales and Use Tax 0.2% 4.0% 8.8% 10.5% 2.9% ‐6.4% ‐11.0% ‐9.4% 14.2% ‐1.2% 2.1% 2.5% 3.5% 3.7% 4.4% 5.6% 3.9%Earmarked Sales and Use Tax ‐33.0 35.1 7.3 138.5 149.6 30.1 ‐15.1 8.9 ‐37.2 75.6 27.1 7.2 9.6 9.5 7.8 7.4 4.1Total Sales and Use Tax ‐0.8 4.6 8.8 13.7 10.6 ‐2.0 ‐11.7 ‐6.6 5.1 6.9 6.4 3.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.0 3.9Cable/Satellite Excise Tax* NA NA NA 75.8 1.7 15.5 3.0 2.0 0.3 13.0 ‐6.1 ‐3.5 9.5 0.6 9.4 0.5 1.5Liquor Profits ‐2.5 18.6 1.1 24.2 12.5 12.2 0.0 ‐2.2 6.8 13.6 14.9 7.9 8.7 9.0 2.2 10.3 6.0Insurance Premiums 4.2 5.8 7.9 6.0 0.5 7.6 7.5 ‐3.6 ‐5.2 11.2 6.1 1.8 1.3 20.9 9.3 3.9 3.9Beer, Cigarette, and Tobacco ‐9.6 15.9 ‐1.4 ‐1.8 2.6 0.7 ‐3.6 ‐3.1 113.8 ‐0.1 ‐3.6 ‐6.4 2.5 2.1 ‐1.7 ‐1.2 ‐0.9Oil and Gas Severance Tax 41.6 37.1 45.9 33.7 ‐8.5 0.1 8.4 ‐20.8 6.5 9.5 ‐18.9 67.7 ‐21.8 ‐70.2 ‐55.2 65.0 31.0Metal Severance Tax 17.8 3.3 90.0 48.9 38.5 12.5 ‐45.1 43.2 30.0 ‐6.3 ‐33.3 ‐6.4 3.1 ‐57.3 ‐1.9 16.8 18.2Inheritance Tax* 249.9 ‐70.7 ‐69.5 152.3 ‐93.3 ‐80.9 236.7 ‐81.1 113.8 ‐100.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NAInvestment Income ‐33.5 ‐14.9 147.1 194.1 108.7 ‐24.8 ‐60.1 ‐78.8 ‐55.0 135.2 6.8 ‐16.3 30.4 21.0 80.3 12.3 9.1General Fund Other 2.9 ‐2.3 1.6 9.5 14.3 ‐8.0 1.8 47.6 ‐9.9 32.7 ‐16.1 1.7 11.1 ‐23.2 20.0 0.2 1.7Property and Energy Credit 3.2 2.2 5.6 ‐5.7 9.9 3.8 ‐2.6 2.4 ‐6.4 13.8 ‐7.7 ‐5.0 ‐9.2 10.2 ‐6.4 2.1 1.2

General Fund Total 1.7 3.6 9.8 13.0 4.7 ‐5.5 ‐10.6 ‐7.9 14.9 1.5 0.4 3.6 3.0 0.7 4.5 5.5 3.9GF & Earmarks Total 0.8 4.1 9.7 15.7 11.1 ‐2.0 ‐11.2 ‐5.8 7.3 7.8 4.0 4.2 4.1 2.3 5.1 5.8 4.0

Individual Income Tax ‐2.0 7.6 13.8 18.2 12.5 1.5 ‐10.7 ‐9.3 9.2 7.0 16.0 1.3 9.3 6.7 7.1 6.7 5.5Withholding ‐1.7 4.7 7.6 10.8 10.1 0.7 ‐8.2 ‐1.0 4.8 5.7 7.5 3.9 6.8 7.8 7.5 6.7 5.6Final Payments ‐3.7 13.3 27.2 35.5 21.1 6.7 ‐21.7 ‐18.5 9.0 2.9 33.8 ‐4.3 12.3 4.7 6.1 6.5 5.0Refunds ‐2.5 1.2 2.0 8.9 17.0 8.0 ‐21.1 13.9 ‐9.9 ‐6.2 0.6 3.5 1.4 8.4 7.3 6.3 5.0Corporate Taxes 31.4 1.2 29.1 79.6 13.0 ‐2.2 ‐36.9 1.2 0.9 3.1 25.8 ‐7.3 19.3 ‐9.5 ‐2.9 2.0 2.8Mineral Production Withholding ‐45.7 140.3 ‐3.1 35.8 1.4 3.4 36.3 ‐24.4 8.7 6.2 ‐8.0 24.1 ‐16.1 ‐42.6 ‐3.0 8.7 4.3Education Fund Other ‐10.7 ‐8.9 ‐99.1 23,989.4 85.9 10.4 ‐3.8 27.4 8.1 ‐5.4 10.4 ‐16.6 ‐7.4 18.0 6.8 6.5 2.5Education Fund Total ‐0.1 7.5 14.7 24.6 12.7 1.0 ‐13.8 ‐8.2 8.3 6.5 16.6 0.5 9.9 4.7 6.1 6.3 5.3

GF/EF Total 0.8 5.6 12.3 19.1 9.1 ‐1.8 ‐12.5 ‐8.1 11.1 4.3 9.7 1.7 7.1 3.2 5.5 6.0 4.8GF/EF & Earmarks Total 0.4 5.8 12.3 20.3 12.0 ‐0.4 ‐12.6 ‐7.1 7.9 7.1 10.8 2.1 7.3 3.7 5.7 6.1 4.7

Motor Fuel Tax ‐0.5 1.4 0.6 ‐0.4 5.9 ‐1.6 ‐6.1 3.3 3.8 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.9 16.6 14.3 1.7 2.0Special Fuel Tax 0.1 1.9 8.9 7.7 9.9 1.7 ‐10.4 ‐6.7 8.2 1.9 ‐2.6 0.3 ‐1.6 15.4 16.8 2.7 1.9Other 4.2 ‐0.8 7.9 9.5 2.8 4.6 3.7 ‐13.8 9.6 ‐1.9 2.5 1.1 3.7 5.4 0.1 ‐0.8 2.1Transportation Fund Total 0.4 1.1 3.7 3.2 6.3 0.3 ‐5.4 ‐2.5 5.8 0.2 0.7 0.3 1.5 14.2 12.3 1.5 2.0

Mineral Lease Payments 45.6 40.9 23.0 84.8 ‐5.4 ‐6.5 25.8 ‐22.2 3.8 27.0 ‐29.4 22.4 ‐15.4 ‐49.6 5.4 3.3 5.9

Total 1.2 5.6 11.7 19.0 8.5 ‐1.8 ‐11.0 ‐8.1 10.4 4.6 7.6 2.1 6.1 2.8 6.1 5.6 4.6

Total & Earmarks 0.8 5.8 11.7 20.1 11.0 ‐0.5 ‐11.2 ‐7.3 7.6 7.1 8.7 2.4 6.3 3.3 6.2 5.7 4.5

Note: * The State of Utah received no Cable/Satellite Excise Tax revenue in FY 2003 and 2004, and it has not received Inheritance Tax Revenue since FY 2012.

Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Governor's Office of Management and Budget.

58

8. Exports

Jim Porter, World Trade Center Utah Don Willie, World Trade Center Utah

2017 Overview

Over the last decade, Utah merchandise exports have grown from $7.8 billion in 2006 to almost $12.1 billion in 2016. Over the last year, however, Utah exports decreased roughly nine percent. Utah is currently the 28th largest exporting state in the nation, slightly down from 27th in 2015.

The Salt Lake City metropolitan area is the 36th largest exporter in the nation among MSAs with $8.7 billion, making up 72 percent of Utah’s total exports in 2016. Over the last decade, exports from Salt Lake City increased 56 percent from $5.6 billion in 2007. The Provo‐Orem area made up 16 percent of total exports with a value of $1.9 billion in 2016. This is a 57 percent increase over the last decade from $1.2 billion. The Ogden‐Clearfield area accounted for 13 percent of total exports with $1.6 billion, up 141 percent from 2007. The Logan area (including some parts of Idaho) saw even more rapid growth than Ogden with a 177 percent increase over the last decade. Finally, St. George, Utah increased its exports from $24 million in 2007 to $36 million in 2016, a 51 percent increase.

Utah’s leading export industry continues to be primary metal products. This sector accounted for approximately 40 percent of Utah’s total merchandise exports in 2016, down from 44 percent in 2015. The value of primary metal exports in 2016 stood at $4.8 billion, a moderate decrease from $5.5 billion in the previous year.

The state did see substantive gains in manufacturing ($67 million), transportation equipment ($54 million), and electrical equipment ($40 million) exports. Other industries declined, including computers and electronics (–$403 million), chemicals (–$32 million), fabricated metals (–$25 million), machinery (–$24 million), and plastics and rubber (–$16 million).

Excluding gold, Utah’s “value added” exports declined slightly from $7.4 billion in 2015 to $7.1 billion in 2016. The largest non‐metal export category in 2016 was

computers and electronic products, totaling $1.7 billion. While this industry declined nearly 20 percent from the previous year, it still makes up almost 15 percent of the total goods exported from the state. Other major export categories included chemicals ($1.06 billion, nine percent of total), food products ($922 million, eight percent of total), and transportation equipment ($866 million, seven percent of total).

Categories which experienced significant relative growth in 2016 include textiles and fabrics (up 103 percent), petroleum and coal products (up 70 percent), wood products (60 percent growth), and fish and other marine products (58 percent growth).

The United Kingdom was again Utah’s largest export destination in 2016 with exports totaling $3 billion representing 25 percent of Utah’s export portfolio. The second largest export destination was Hong Kong, with over $1.5 billion in exports, making up 12 percent of Utah’s export portfolio. The commodity profile of exports to the United Kingdom and Hong Kong continues to be dominated by primary metals. In fact, 93 percent of exports to the United Kingdom and 88 percent of exports to Hong Kong are primary metals. Utah’s third largest export destination was Canada with $1.3 billion in exports, making up 11 percent of total 2016 Utah exports. The top three industry exports to Canada were: primary metals ($301 million), chemicals ($195 million), and transportation equipment ($171 million). Mexico followed Canada at $741 million, making up six percent of the total. By far, the largest industry export to Mexico was transportation equipment at $243 million.

Rounding out the top five export destinations is China with $648 million in exports, making up 5 percent of the total. The single largest export category to China was computers and electronics at $238 million. Taiwan, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, and South Korea are also included in Utah’s top 10 trading partners.

59

Over the last decade, exports to Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partners increased 92 percent. In 2016 alone, exports to FTA partners totaled $3.1 billion, making up 26 percent of exports from Utah.

2018 Outlook

As has historically been the case, significant fluctuations in Utah’s total exports are driven largely by volatility of the price of gold in the international marketplace. The price of gold is projected to increase slightly in 2018 and 2019, but not as much as previously projected. Increased demand is expected to support increased precious metals exports from Utah.

To establish greater consistency in export value the State of Utah is promoting increased and expanded “value added” exports to diverse markets across the globe. Aiding in this effort are the World Trade Center Utah, the Governor’s Office of Economic Development, and the Economic Development Corporation of Utah.

Critical to increased trade are free trade agreements such the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has come under fire by the current administration. Utah’s success in the global market is

dependent on positive trade relations with both Canada and Mexico.

Utah also continues to support increasing exports from rural Utah, working to help smaller rural economies to benefit from global economic growth. Because rural exports make up only a small percentage of total exports from the state, the potential for expanded growth remains significant.

Additionally, the Inland Port Exploratory Committee (IPEC) held three public meetings during 2017 to discuss next steps in exploring the feasibility of an inland port in Utah. The IPEC visited three ports of interest: Port of Long Beach, CA; Greer, S.C. Inland Port; and Cordele, GA Inland Port. This committee also managed the contract for the Inland Port Feasibility Study, which was awarded in October. The study was completed in December and included a review of the market, competitiveness, and logistics system facts. The study concluded that there is a strong business opportunity if there is integration of ground and air logistics, infrastructure development, and economic development. A global trade port could be transformative and further establish the state as a global economic player.

60

Figure 8.1Utah Merchandise Exports

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online

7,815

10,306 10,337

13,808

18,968 19,260

16,111

12,22413,308

12,078

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millions of Nominal Dollars

178

199

332

522

635

812

933

1,095

2,121

5,563

162

174

372

498

702

866

922

1,063

1,718

4,854

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Plastics & Rubber

Fabricated Metals

Electrical Equipment

Machinery

Miscellaneous Manufactures

Transportation Equipment

Food

Chemicals

Computers & Electronics

Primary Metals

2016 2015


Figure 8.2Utah Merchandise Exports of Top Ten Export Industries

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, USA Trade Online61

Figure 8.3Utah Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Countries


3,074

1,507

1,323

741

648

610

504

448

343

318

3,037

1,947

1,492

854

841

710

548

365

266

377

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500

United Kingdom

Hong Kong

Canada

Mexico

China

Taiwan

Japan

Netherlands

Germany

South Korea


2016 2015

Figure 8.4Utah Monthly Exports: With and Without Gold


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Mill

ions

of N

omin

al D

olla

rs

Total Exports Primary Metals (Gold) All Other Exports

62

Table 8.1

U.S. Merchandise Exports by State

Rank Geography 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015–2016

United States $1,482,508 $1,545,821 $1,578,517 $1,621,874 $1,503,101 $1,451,011 ‐3.5% 100%

22 Alabama 17,927.7 19,577.0 19,301.3 19,450.4 19,328.2 20,422.1 5.7% 1.4%

41 Alaska 5,258.9 4,543.4 4,527.8 5,111.2 4,619.7 4,347.5 ‐5.9% 0.3%

19 Arizona 17,884.5 18,404.7 19,478.3 21,247.3 22,655.4 22,016.2 ‐2.8% 1.5%

35 Arkansas 5,611.0 7,615.2 7,160.8 6,866.2 5,869.5 5,707.5 ‐2.8% 0.4%

2 California 159,421.4 161,757.3 168,191.6 173,868.6 165,379.6 163,512.8 ‐1.1% 11.3%

33 Colorado 7,338.2 8,170.1 8,545.0 8,363.7 7,950.3 7,580.3 ‐4.7% 0.5%

25 Connecticut 16,232.8 15,871.1 16,426.7 15,962.8 15,242.4 14,394.2 ‐5.6% 1.0%

40 Delaware 5,516.3 5,113.8 5,327.3 5,267.4 5,407.8 4,532.4 ‐16.2% 0.3%

48 Dist of Columbia 1,041.2 2,014.1 2,707.7 940.2 1,088.1 1,330.7 22.3% 0.1%

7 Florida 65,009.8 66,222.5 60,482.2 58,438.8 53,899.6 52,049.4 ‐3.4% 3.6%

11 Georgia 34,863.1 36,038.5 37,578.2 39,412.7 38,595.3 35,644.3 ‐7.6% 2.5%

51 Hawaii 884.4 731.7 598.7 1,447.5 1,896.4 795.5 ‐58.1% 0.1%

39 Idaho 5,913.0 6,119.9 5,789.4 5,137.8 4,294.8 4,876.8 13.6% 0.3%

5 Illinois 64,902.9 68,157.9 66,212.9 68,394.0 63,401.9 59,757.9 ‐5.7% 4.1%

12 Indiana 32,332.1 34,398.9 34,216.0 35,589.1 33,818.8 34,655.0 2.5% 2.4%

27 Iowa 13,316.5 14,622.2 13,903.4 15,111.5 13,233.6 12,115.4 ‐8.4% 0.8%

30 Kansas 11,623.4 11,683.9 12,459.2 12,021.9 10,690.2 10,181.4 ‐4.8% 0.7%

17 Kentucky 20,118.9 22,131.6 25,411.7 27,757.4 27,643.9 29,199.2 5.6% 2.0%

9 Louisiana 54,971.2 62,868.8 63,247.0 64,770.1 48,685.9 48,418.8 ‐0.5% 3.3%

45 Maine 3,422.1 3,047.9 2,686.8 2,811.1 2,763.0 2,875.3 4.1% 0.2%

32 Maryland 10,862.6 11,745.1 11,746.7 12,228.3 10,051.8 9,658.2 ‐3.9% 0.7%

18 Massachusetts 27,871.0 25,613.9 26,812.0 27,384.2 25,290.1 25,891.7 2.4% 1.8%

6 Michigan 51,064.0 57,051.5 59,399.8 57,573.1 53,954.0 54,713.5 1.4% 3.8%

23 Minnesota 20,732.1 20,826.6 20,760.1 21,397.6 20,016.2 19,202.4 ‐4.1% 1.3%

29 Mississippi 10,938.9 11,793.8 12,415.2 11,484.9 10,848.4 10,494.7 ‐3.3% 0.7%

26 Missouri 14,161.1 13,903.2 12,958.2 14,189.6 13,647.8 13,934.6 2.1% 1.0%

47 Montana 1,591.8 1,576.0 1,505.8 1,544.9 1,404.1 1,360.1 ‐3.1% 0.1%

34 Nebraska 7,587.6 7,455.0 7,393.0 7,889.7 6,663.4 6,380.4 ‐4.2% 0.4%

31 Nevada 7,989.6 10,261.2 8,701.1 7,691.7 8,666.5 9,763.2 12.7% 0.7%

42 New Hampshire 4,306.6 3,487.6 3,511.0 4,233.2 4,001.3 4,143.0 3.5% 0.3%

15 New Jersey 38,172.3 37,285.6 36,611.9 36,587.0 32,063.6 31,222.8 ‐2.6% 2.2%

43 New Mexico 2,095.9 2,957.8 2,726.1 3,801.6 3,781.3 3,631.6 ‐4.0% 0.3%

4 New York 84,999.3 81,337.5 86,407.2 88,834.3 83,134.5 76,720.2 ‐7.7% 5.3%

16 North Carolina 27,067.0 28,838.7 29,347.1 31,420.0 30,201.8 30,161.3 ‐0.1% 2.1%

36 North Dakota 3,392.8 4,310.3 4,401.7 5,513.1 4,026.8 5,313.3 31.9% 0.4%

8 Ohio 46,457.6 48,818.9 51,048.2 52,641.4 51,156.6 49,298.8 ‐3.6% 3.4%

37 Oklahoma 6,227.7 6,578.5 6,919.7 6,308.3 5,250.7 5,047.9 ‐3.9% 0.3%

20 Oregon 18,317.0 18,387.9 18,633.6 20,888.8 20,085.7 21,752.6 8.3% 1.5%

10 Pennsylvania 41,103.1 38,851.9 41,180.8 40,410.8 39,437.3 36,484.4 ‐7.5% 2.5%

46 Rhode Island 2,288.6 2,365.7 2,164.1 2,388.5 2,132.7 2,277.8 6.8% 0.2%

14 South Carolina 24,732.6 25,115.5 26,341.2 29,773.0 30,988.7 31,321.9 1.1% 2.2%

49 South Dakota 1,461.5 1,557.3 1,582.2 1,577.6 1,420.0 1,223.4 ‐13.8% 0.1%

13 Tennessee 30,016.1 31,143.0 32,473.7 33,250.9 32,587.8 31,432.7 ‐3.5% 2.2%

1 Texas 251,104.3 264,664.9 277,715.5 285,559.3 248,605.7 231,106.7 ‐7.0% 15.9%

28 Utah 18,968.3 19,259.9 16,111.2 12,224.1 13,308.4 12,077.7 ‐9.2% 0.8%

44 Vermont 4,274.6 4,139.2 4,026.5 3,669.6 3,181.5 2,989.8 ‐6.0% 0.2%

24 Virginia 18,124.7 18,277.0 17,896.1 19,390.8 17,801.3 16,313.2 ‐8.4% 1.1%

3 Washington 64,800.3 75,654.3 81,630.0 90,558.3 86,378.7 79,559.5 ‐7.9% 5.5%

38 West Virginia 9,039.2 11,407.2 8,731.7 7,597.0 5,833.1 5,045.4 ‐13.5% 0.3%

21 Wisconsin 22,068.9 23,119.0 23,110.5 23,425.6 22,438.3 21,021.2 ‐6.3% 1.4%

50 Wyoming 1,218.7 1,439.2 1,350.6 1,757.3 1,175.0 1,098.1 ‐6.5% 0.1%


Percent

Change2016

Share

Millions of Current Dollars

63

Table 8.2

Utah Merchandise Exports by Industry

Rank Code Industry Name 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

All Commodities $18,968.3 $19,259.9 $16,111.2 $12,224.1 $13,308.4 $12,077.7 ‐9.2% 100%

13 111 Agricultural Products 30.5 71.5 61.5 77.1 101.6 90.8 ‐10.6% 0.8%

27 112 Livestock and Livestock Products 6.8 4.1 6.9 10.4 6.0 4.5 ‐25.1% 0.0%

28 113 Forestry Products 2.0 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.9 35.8% 0.0%

29 114 Fish and Other Marine Products 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 58.0% 0.0%

31 211 Oil and Gas 0.7 0.8 48.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 ‐58.1% 0.0%

12 212 Minerals 457.8 269.6 172.7 370.2 317.5 128.6 ‐59.5% 1.1%

4 311 Food 652.9 817.4 955.8 992.7 932.9 922.3 ‐1.1% 7.6%

19 312 Beverages 23.8 16.5 20.0 29.4 38.7 29.5 ‐23.7% 0.2%

14 313 Raw Textiles 12.7 9.8 12.0 15.7 39.1 79.4 103.2% 0.7%

21 314 Milled Textiles 11.8 16.6 18.7 25.4 21.1 22.2 5.3% 0.2%

25 315 Apparel and Accessories 9.3 11.2 10.8 13.7 14.8 12.1 ‐18.5% 0.1%

23 316 Leather 12.9 16.8 18.5 20.5 18.8 17.1 ‐8.8% 0.1%

26 321 Wood Products 3.1 9.4 3.5 4.4 3.4 5.4 59.9% 0.0%

17 322 Paper 40.8 34.0 27.6 31.7 28.1 32.1 14.0% 0.3%

20 323 Printed Material 17.1 21.3 23.0 28.0 18.7 23.2 24.1% 0.2%

22 324 Petroleum and Coal Products 13.3 39.3 13.1 8.8 11.4 19.4 70.2% 0.2%

3 325 Chemicals 745.9 799.0 829.8 1,047.0 1,095.5 1,063.3 ‐2.9% 8.8%

10 326 Plastics and Rubber Products 148.3 175.6 186.5 191.3 178.0 161.9 ‐9.1% 1.3%

15 327 Nonmetallic Minerals 23.4 32.6 30.4 44.7 43.1 43.1 0.0% 0.4%

1 331 Primary Metals 12,112.1 12,180.8 8,321.5 4,113.4 5,562.5 4,854.4 ‐12.7% 40.2%

9 332 Fabricated Metals 220.6 215.1 231.2 221.4 198.7 174.0 ‐12.5% 1.4%

7 333 Machinery 522.6 552.7 521.3 495.3 522.1 497.8 ‐4.6% 4.1%

2 334 Computers and Electronics 2,204.0 2,126.8 2,681.0 2,349.4 2,121.4 1,718.1 ‐19.0% 14.2%

8 335 Electrical Equipment 185.4 207.9 267.3 307.9 331.5 371.6 12.1% 3.1%

5 336 Transportation Equipment 657.6 797.5 802.4 905.5 811.9 865.8 6.6% 7.2%

16 337 Furniture and Fixtures 36.2 35.5 32.6 35.2 48.2 34.9 ‐27.6% 0.3%

6 339 Miscellaneous Manufactures 459.3 539.8 596.1 656.0 634.7 701.9 10.6% 5.8%

32 511 Publications 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0%

11 910 Waste and Scrap 289.8 185.6 141.1 121.8 168.6 159.3 ‐5.5% 1.3%

24 920, 930 Used Merchandise 21.3 35.0 36.4 34.5 13.4 12.3 ‐8.1% 0.1%

30 980 Goods Returned 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 ‐68.7% 0.0%

18 990 Other Special Classification 42.6 35.1 37.9 63.8 24.6 29.9 21.6% 0.2%


Millions of Current Dollars 2016

Share

Percent

Change

2015–2016

64

Table 8.3

Utah Merchandise Exports by Purchasing Country and Region

Rank Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

World Total $18,968.3 $19,259.9 $16,111.2 $12,224.1 $13,308.4 $12,077.7 ‐9.2% 100%

1 United Kingdom 6,715.5 6,042.6 1,293.3 1,415.2 3,036.6 3,074.0 1.2% 25.5%

2 Hong Kong 3,702.7 4,177.8 5,527.6 1,760.6 1,947.3 1,506.8 ‐22.6% 12.5%

3 Canada 1,375.1 1,917.7 1,323.5 1,423.1 1,491.9 1,323.0 ‐11.3% 11.0%

4 Mexico 515.8 487.3 546.8 742.0 853.9 740.9 ‐13.2% 6.1%

5 China 523.9 607.6 1,412.7 891.7 841.1 648.4 ‐22.9% 5.4%

6 Taiwan 696.7 533.0 476.6 676.8 710.2 610.2 ‐14.1% 5.1%

7 Japan 408.8 563.0 628.2 552.7 547.7 504.0 ‐8.0% 4.2%

8 Netherlands 125.1 164.7 254.5 387.8 364.9 448.3 22.9% 3.7%

9 Germany 283.5 294.2 228.3 255.8 266.5 343.2 28.8% 2.8%

10 South Korea 222.8 242.6 341.1 403.7 376.8 318.3 ‐15.5% 2.6%

11 Singapore 570.7 484.0 644.4 545.4 359.1 291.2 ‐18.9% 2.4%

12 Switzerland 102.4 99.2 268.5 254.7 219.1 209.0 ‐4.6% 1.7%

13 Australia 513.1 323.9 161.6 184.3 190.5 189.5 ‐0.5% 1.6%

14 Italy 166.4 141.5 168.1 139.9 167.3 173.4 3.6% 1.4%

15 France 136.8 104.2 109.0 113.6 129.7 172.0 32.5% 1.4%

16 Thailand 707.6 507.3 835.3 532.9 147.6 129.5 ‐12.3% 1.1%

17 Brazil 101.2 98.3 117.6 113.7 92.8 103.2 11.3% 0.9%

18 India 565.9 1,056.3 311.3 240.3 201.9 101.5 ‐49.7% 0.8%

19 Belgium 271.0 221.5 141.3 268.0 127.5 87.6 ‐31.3% 0.7%

20 Malaysia 93.9 83.5 103.1 97.4 98.1 75.9 ‐22.6% 0.6%

21 Spain 62.5 35.3 45.7 52.4 44.8 63.2 41.0% 0.5%

22 Austria 11.7 15.0 11.7 10.6 46.5 58.5 25.7% 0.5%

23 Israel 53.9 50.0 56.1 59.3 40.6 49.4 21.6% 0.4%

24 Philippines 130.0 132.4 155.5 164.2 112.6 47.8 ‐57.6% 0.4%

25 Sweden 41.4 67.2 43.1 44.5 45.5 43.0 ‐5.4% 0.4%

26 Poland 13.2 17.7 25.1 24.2 29.7 42.8 44.3% 0.4%

27 United Arab Emirates 44.3 50.5 46.9 38.3 68.9 38.5 ‐44.2% 0.3%

28 Ireland 22.7 25.5 38.3 24.6 44.0 36.6 ‐16.7% 0.3%

29 Turkey 126.9 40.4 35.0 77.4 26.5 36.2 36.8% 0.3%

30 Chile 138.0 46.6 61.3 73.5 66.2 33.9 ‐48.7% 0.3%

31 Indonesia 22.0 33.7 63.7 36.8 58.5 33.7 ‐42.4% 0.3%

32 Costa Rica 17.9 26.0 34.3 15.6 23.7 32.9 39.2% 0.3%

33 Finland 19.3 25.3 20.9 24.5 25.9 30.3 16.9% 0.3%

34 Vietnam 14.0 17.0 17.7 21.5 28.6 26.3 ‐8.0% 0.2%

35 South Africa 48.9 34.4 28.3 24.5 37.1 24.8 ‐33.0% 0.2%


Percent

Change

2015–2016

Millions of Current Dollars 2016

Share

65

Table 8.4

Utah Merchandise Exports to Top Ten Purchasing Countries by Industry: 2015

Code Industry NameUnited

KingdomHong Kong Canada Mexico China Taiwan Japan Netherlands Germany

South

Korea

10‐Country

Industry Total

All Commodities $3,074.0 $1,506.8 $1,323.0 $740.9 $648.4 $610.2 $504.0 $448.3 $343.2 $318.3 $9,517.1

111 Agricultural Products 0.1 0.0 0.8 3.3 49.8 3.3 12.1 1.2 0.1 5.3 76.1

112 Livestock and Livestock Products 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0

113 Forestry Products 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9

114 Fish and Other Marine Products 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6

211 Oil and Gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

212 Minerals 0.5 0.9 5.3 36.4 10.3 0.1 26.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 82.4

311 Food 9.6 81.4 89.8 67.0 49.7 51.7 82.3 23.2 2.3 112.5 569.6

312 Beverages 0.0 1.5 3.3 11.7 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.9 0.0 0.2 23.6

313 Raw Textiles 0.4 0.1 2.7 69.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 74.0

314 Milled Textiles 0.5 0.1 14.5 2.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 19.0

315 Apparel and Accessories 0.5 0.3 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.0 8.6

316 Leather 0.5 0.1 4.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.4 6.3 0.2 0.6 15.0

321 Wood Products 0.1 0.0 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.5

322 Paper 1.2 1.4 10.4 4.8 2.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 0.1 23.3

323 Printed Material 0.9 0.2 4.3 5.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.0 12.9

324 Petroleum and Coal Products 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.0

325 Chemicals 47.0 23.9 195.0 63.6 77.6 27.9 83.3 68.1 31.3 93.4 711.1

326 Plastics and Rubber Products 18.0 0.6 53.5 22.1 8.3 4.2 5.3 1.5 2.9 4.4 120.8

327 Nonmetallic Minerals 0.8 0.1 19.7 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 26.8

331 Primary Metals 2,862.5 1,332.4 301.6 15.7 1.1 0.1 3.6 2.7 4.6 21.0 4,545.3

332 Fabricated Metals 2.5 1.4 74.5 22.7 4.7 0.9 4.2 2.7 9.7 1.1 124.4

333 Machinery 12.1 3.9 117.6 41.2 35.9 12.4 9.8 12.4 13.6 7.5 266.2

334 Computers and Electronics 43.0 38.1 96.9 29.5 237.8 495.2 134.6 43.6 101.7 24.7 1,245.2

335 Electrical Equipment 15.4 2.6 53.4 51.1 13.2 4.5 4.5 108.0 22.7 2.9 278.2

336 Transportation Equipment 25.2 3.5 171.0 242.9 40.0 1.9 54.2 2.4 110.9 20.9 672.8

337 Furniture and Fixtures 3.7 1.3 7.5 10.1 5.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.6 29.5

339 Miscellaneous Manufactures 27.6 11.6 60.2 16.7 57.2 2.7 73.1 166.6 34.5 15.5 465.6

511 Publications 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

910 Waste and Scrap 0.0 0.8 5.2 15.0 48.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 1.4 4.0 78.0

920, 930 Used Merchandise 0.8 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 6.1

980 Goods Returned 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

990 Other Special Classification 1.1 0.1 5.7 1.0 2.8 0.0 1.6 0.1 1.0 1.2 14.4


Millions of Current Dollars

66

9. Price Inflation and Cost of Living

Annette Harris, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute David Stringfellow, Office of the Utah State Auditor

2017 Overview Inflation at a moderate level can be a positive signal that the economy is strong and that businesses feel confident enough in consumer spending to raise prices. The Federal Reserve states that an inflation rate of two percent is most consistent with its mandate for price stability and maximum employment, conditions associated with economic growth, and warns that an inflation rate “that is too high may reduce the public’s ability to make accurate long term economic decisions.” Conversely, an inflation rate that is too low would elevate the “probability of falling into deflation” —a harmful economic phenomenon where prices, and perhaps wages, fall. A common measure of inflation is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures price changes for a fixed group of goods and services over time. The CPI is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. After extensive analysis, the Federal Reserve considers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to be a better measure of inflation that consumers experience over time.

Through October 2017, the headline index has risen two percent. The CPI increased by 1.3 percent from 2015 to 2016. In the previous year (from 2014 to 2015) the CPI increased only 0.1 percent. The last time inflation was above two percent was in 2012.

Housing, car insurance, motor fuel and medical care became relatively more expensive this year while vehicle and clothing prices actually fell. Over the last decade, car insurance is up nearly 60 percent, education near 50 percent, medical care prices over 30 percent, housing and food prices have grown around 20 percent (the general price level), while vehicle, clothing and recreation prices have changed very little.

Motor fuel prices have fluctuated a lot but have fallen 10 percent this decade. The trend of inflation is clear, $1.00 in 1960 could buy the same amount of quality goods as $8.33 in 2017. This is up from $8.17 in 2016.

While the Federal Reserve decreased the interest rate to an unprecedented 0‐0.25 percent in 2008 in response to the recession, there have been moderate increases in recent years. In 2016 the rates were raised to 0.75 percent with gradual increases up to 1.50 percent by December of 2017. This points to continued moderate inflation and confidence in the economy of the nation.

Regional Price Parities (RPPs) measure cost of living across states and metropolitan areas and help give a sense for differences by geographic region. The most recent RPP data is from 2015. Utah’s RPP is 97, indicating that the cost of living in Utah is slightly lower than the national average.

According to the most recent BEA reports, the 2016 average compensation per job in Utah was $57,729 (compared to the national average of $66,447). This reflects a 2.7 percent increase in Utah’s average compensation since 2015, which is double the national increase of 1.3 percent during the same period.

2018 Outlook According to the Federal Reserve, overall PCE inflation for 2018 is expected to be near two percent and remain stable in the near future. The Federal Reserve expects the federal funds rate to increase through 2018 to near two percent. The rate increases will depend on the future expected outlook of the economy and could be impacted by federal tax changes among other factors.

67

Housing

Vehicles

CPI

CPI

Motor Fuel

Car Insurance

Education

Medical Care

Food

Clothing

Recreation

Utilities

‐30%

‐20%

‐10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Figure 9.1Cumulative Percent Change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) this Decade

$‐

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Dollar Eq

uivalen

ce Relative to 1960

Annual In

flation Rate

Annual Inflation Rate Dollar Equivalence Relative to 1960

In 1960, $1.00 could buy the same amount of goods as

$8.33 can today.

Figure 9.2Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year‐over‐Year Price Change and

Relative Value of a Dollar

68

Table 9.1

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

(1982‐1984=100) Not Seasonally Adjusted

Annual

% Change

1959 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.1 ‐

1960 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 1.7%

1961 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 1.0%

1962 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 1.0%

1963 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.6 1.3%

1964 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.0 1.3%

1965 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.6 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.5 1.6%

1966 31.8 32.0 32.1 32.3 32.3 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.7 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.4 2.9%

1967 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.8 33.9 33.4 3.1%

1968 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.0 35.1 35.3 35.4 35.5 34.8 4.2%

1969 35.6 35.8 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.6 36.8 37.0 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.7 36.7 5.5%

1970 37.8 38.0 38.2 38.5 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.6 39.8 38.8 5.7%

1971 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.1 40.3 40.6 40.7 40.8 40.8 40.9 40.9 41.1 40.5 4.4%

1972 41.1 41.3 41.4 41.5 41.6 41.7 41.9 42.0 42.1 42.3 42.4 42.5 41.8 3.2%

1973 42.6 42.9 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.2 44.3 45.1 45.2 45.6 45.9 46.2 44.4 6.2%

1974 46.6 47.2 47.8 48.0 48.6 49.0 49.4 50.0 50.6 51.1 51.5 51.9 49.3 11.0%

1975 52.1 52.5 52.7 52.9 53.2 53.6 54.2 54.3 54.6 54.9 55.3 55.5 53.8 9.1%

1976 55.6 55.8 55.9 56.1 56.5 56.8 57.1 57.4 57.6 57.9 58.0 58.2 56.9 5.8%

1977 58.5 59.1 59.5 60.0 60.3 60.7 61.0 61.2 61.4 61.6 61.9 62.1 60.6 6.5%

1978 62.5 62.9 63.4 63.9 64.5 65.2 65.7 66.0 66.5 67.1 67.4 67.7 65.2 7.6%

1979 68.3 69.1 69.8 70.6 71.5 72.3 73.1 73.8 74.6 75.2 75.9 76.7 72.6 11.3%

1980 77.8 78.9 80.1 81.0 81.8 82.7 82.7 83.3 84.0 84.8 85.5 86.3 82.4 13.5%

1981 87.0 87.9 88.5 89.1 89.8 90.6 91.6 92.3 93.2 93.4 93.7 94.0 90.9 10.3%

1982 94.3 94.6 94.5 94.9 95.8 97.0 97.5 97.7 97.9 98.2 98.0 97.6 96.5 6.2%

1983 97.8 97.9 97.9 98.6 99.2 99.5 99.9 100.2 100.7 101.0 101.2 101.3 99.6 3.2%

1984 101.9 102.4 102.6 103.1 103.4 103.7 104.1 104.5 105.0 105.3 105.3 105.3 103.9 4.3%

1985 105.5 106.0 106.4 106.9 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.0 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.3 107.6 3.6%

1986 109.6 109.3 108.8 108.6 108.9 109.5 109.5 109.7 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.5 109.6 1.9%

1987 111.2 111.6 112.1 112.7 113.1 113.5 113.8 114.4 115.0 115.3 115.4 115.4 113.6 3.6%

1988 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.5 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.8 120.2 120.3 120.5 118.3 4.1%

1989 121.1 121.6 122.3 123.1 123.8 124.1 124.4 124.6 125.0 125.6 125.9 126.1 124.0 4.8%

1990 127.4 128.0 128.7 128.9 129.2 129.9 130.4 131.6 132.7 133.5 133.8 133.8 130.7 5.4%

1991 134.6 134.8 135.0 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.2 136.6 137.2 137.4 137.8 137.9 136.2 4.2%

1992 138.1 138.6 139.3 139.5 139.7 140.2 140.5 140.9 141.3 141.8 142.0 141.9 140.3 3.0%

1993 142.6 143.1 143.6 144.0 144.2 144.4 144.4 144.8 145.1 145.7 145.8 145.8 144.5 3.0%

1994 146.2 146.7 147.2 147.4 147.5 148.0 148.4 149.0 149.4 149.5 149.7 149.7 148.2 2.6%

1995 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.2 152.5 152.5 152.9 153.2 153.7 153.6 153.5 152.4 2.8%

1996 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 158.6 156.9 3.0%

1997 159.1 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 161.3 160.5 2.3%

1998 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 163.9 163.0 1.6%

1999 164.3 164.5 165.0 166.2 166.2 166.2 166.7 167.1 167.9 168.2 168.3 168.3 166.6 2.2%

2000 168.8 169.8 171.2 171.3 171.5 172.4 172.8 172.8 173.7 174.0 174.1 174.0 172.2 3.4%

2001 175.1 175.8 176.2 176.9 177.7 178.0 177.5 177.5 178.3 177.7 177.4 176.7 177.1 2.8%

2002 177.1 177.8 178.8 179.8 179.8 179.9 180.1 180.7 181.0 181.3 181.3 180.9 179.9 1.6%

2003 181.7 183.1 184.2 183.8 183.5 183.7 183.9 184.6 185.2 185.0 184.5 184.3 184.0 2.3%

2004 185.2 186.2 187.4 188.0 189.1 189.7 189.4 189.5 189.9 190.9 191.0 190.3 188.9 2.7%

2005 190.7 191.8 193.3 194.6 194.4 194.5 195.4 196.4 198.8 199.2 197.6 196.8 195.3 3.4%

2006 198.3 198.7 199.8 201.5 202.5 202.9 203.5 203.9 202.9 201.8 201.5 201.8 201.6 3.2%

2007 202.4 203.5 205.4 206.7 207.9 208.4 208.3 207.9 208.5 208.9 210.2 210.0 207.3 2.8%

2008 211.1 211.7 213.5 214.8 216.6 218.8 220.0 219.1 218.8 216.6 212.4 210.2 215.3 3.8%

2009 211.1 212.2 212.7 213.2 213.9 215.7 215.4 215.8 216.0 216.2 216.3 215.9 214.5 ‐0.4%

2010 216.7 216.7 217.6 218.0 218.2 218.0 218.0 218.3 218.4 218.7 218.8 219.2 218.1 1.6%

2011 220.2 221.3 223.5 224.9 226.0 225.7 225.9 226.5 226.9 226.4 226.2 225.7 224.9 3.2%

2012 226.7 227.7 229.4 230.1 229.8 229.5 229.1 230.4 231.4 231.3 230.2 229.6 229.6 2.1%

2013 230.3 232.2 232.8 232.5 232.9 233.5 233.6 233.9 234.1 233.5 233.1 233.0 233.0 1.5%

2014 233.9 234.8 236.3 237.1 237.9 238.3 238.3 237.9 238.0 237.4 236.2 234.8 236.7 1.6%

2015 233.7 234.7 236.1 236.6 237.8 238.6 238.7 238.3 237.9 237.8 237.3 236.5 237.0 0.1%

2016 236.9 237.1 238.1 239.3 240.2 241.0 240.6 240.8 241.4 241.7 241.4 241.4 240.0 1.3%

2017 242.8 243.6 243.8 244.5 244.7 245.0 244.8 245.5 246.8 246.7 246.7

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

MayYear January February March April December AnnualJune July August September October November

69

Table 9.2

Regional Price Parities by State: 2015

Rents OtherAlabama 86.8 95.9 62.8 93.8Alaska 105.6 101.0 139.4 96.9Arizona 96.2 98.1 91.4 97.4Arkansas 87.4 94.7 63.9 93.9California 113.4 103.6 147.3 106.1Colorado 103.2 100.1 114.7 100.1Connecticut 108.7 104.5 116.8 108.6Delaware 100.4 99.7 97.6 103.1District of Columbia 117.0 105.9 154.3 109.7Florida 99.5 98.5 105.4 97.2Georgia 92.6 96.8 81.1 95.2Hawaii 118.8 109.2 163.4 104.3Idaho 93.4 98.0 78.7 97.3Illinois 99.7 100.1 99.4 99.4Indiana 90.7 97.2 74.9 93.6Iowa 90.3 95.4 75.3 91.7Kansas 90.4 95.8 74.6 93.5Kentucky 88.6 94.3 68.9 93.6Louisiana 90.6 96.2 76.2 93.8Maine 98.0 98.5 95.8 98.6Maryland 109.6 103.4 123.9 106.7Massachusetts 106.9 100.7 123.3 105.4Michigan 93.5 97.7 81.1 96.5Minnesota 97.4 100.8 95.0 94.7Mississippi 86.2 93.9 63.1 93.9Missouri 89.3 95.2 73.6 92.2Montana 94.8 98.5 85.5 95.3Nebraska 90.6 95.9 76.5 92.0Nevada 98.0 96.8 95.3 101.8New Hampshire 105.0 100.1 118.1 103.6New Jersey 113.4 102.7 132.8 113.4New Mexico 94.4 97.3 81.2 100.1New York 115.3 108.6 133.9 111.5North Carolina 91.2 96.0 78.7 93.8North Dakota 92.3 95.2 86.4 91.5Ohio 89.2 96.0 72.9 91.6Oklahoma 89.9 95.4 72.0 93.9Oregon 99.2 98.7 101.5 98.7Pennsylvania 97.9 99.6 88.7 101.7Rhode Island 98.7 98.3 100.2 98.3South Carolina 90.3 96.3 76.3 93.8South Dakota 88.2 95.0 68.5 91.3Tennessee 89.9 95.9 73.7 93.8Texas 96.8 96.8 92.9 99.1Utah 97.0 97.1 91.2 100.8Vermont 101.6 98.4 117.0 98.3Virginia 102.5 99.5 111.8 100.6Washington 104.8 103.8 113.2 101.5West Virginia 88.9 94.6 66.0 95.3Wisconsin 93.1 96.2 85.9 93.3Wyoming 96.2 98.4 91.5 95.9

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

ServicesGoodsAll items

70

10. Regional/National Comparisons

Peter Reichard, Utah Foundation Shawn Teigen, Utah Foundation Serena Yang, Utah Foundation

2017 Overview

Population and Households Utah ranked 31st for total population (3,051,217) in 2016—surpassing the three million inhabitants mark that year. For 2016, Utah was the fastest growing state in the nation with an increase in residents of 1.8 percent. Over the three‐year average from 2013 through 2016, Utah ranked fourth for population growth, with an annualized increase of 1.7 percent, significantly higher than the U.S. average (0.7 percent). Utah’s growth is also faster than the Mountain States regional average (1.4 percent) and that of all of its neighboring states; though Colorado, Arizona, Idaho and Nevada were close behind, ranking fifth, seventh, ninth and eleventh, respectively. Utah’s growth can be attributed in part to the state’s highest‐in‐the‐nation birth rate. Utah also continues to have the largest household size in the nation (3.2 persons per household—with only two other states averaging over 3.0).

Gross Domestic Product Utah ranked second in the nation for annualized real gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2013 through 2016, with a rate of 3.9 percent. The U.S. average was 2.3 percent and the Mountain States regional average was 2.6 percent. Per capita GDP measured $44,893 in 2016, 12 percent lower than the U.S. as a whole ($50,708), and with a national ranking of 31st—but higher than the other Mountain States except Colorado and Wyoming. Utah’s relatively low per capita GDP is at least partially attributable to Utah’s high proportion of children.

Personal and Family Income One measure of the health of the economy is personal income. This subset of GDP measures the amount of funds available to individuals. Utah’s total personal income was $125 billion in 2016, resulting in a per capita personal income of $40,925. This places Utah as

42nd in the nation. This ranking also relates to Utah’s high proportion of children. Two measures that do not include children are household income and family income. Utah’s median household income was $65,977 in 2016—12th highest in the nation. Utah’s high ranking is due in part to having the fewest single‐person households in the nation. While household income measures the income of all workers within a household (regardless of relation), another measure—family income—excludes single‐person households, measuring only the income of relatives within the same households. Utah’s 2016 median family income measured $74,181, with a national ranking of 20th. To put these incomes in perspective, Utah’s cost of living is typically considered near the national average.

Employment and Unemployment Nonfarm payroll jobs are generally considered an accurate employment indicator that closely reflects labor market conditions. In 2016, Utah employed nearly one and a half million workers on nonfarm payrolls. The annualized growth rate of employment was 2.6 percent from the end of 2013 to the end of 2016, compared to 1.8 percent nationally. This employment growth is second in the Mountain States region to Arizona’s 2.9 percent growth. This high growth rate has influenced Utah’s low unemployment rate. For 2016, the state’s unemployment rate averaged 3.4 percent, eighth lowest in the nation and significantly lower than the national unemployment rate (4.9 percent). By October 2017, Utah’s rate had decreased slightly to 3.3 percent, 10th lowest in the nation, but up slightly from the same month in 2016 (3.2 percent). The national unemployment rate in October 2017 was 4.1 percent.

71

2018 Outlook Utah’s economy is likely to remain vibrant. GDP will rise accordingly. Population growth will continue—like other states in the West—to outpace the national average. Utah’s low unemployment rate is likely to remain steady. This should keep pressure on wages, likely increasing them and bolstering Utah’s labor participation rate.

72

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

‐0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

United States MountainStates

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming

Figure 10.1Annualized Population Growth:

2013‐2016

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

United States MountainStates

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming

Figure 10.2Annualized GDP Growth:

2013‐2016

73


Figure 10.3Unemployment Rate:

October 2016 and October 2017

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

U.S. Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico Utah Wyoming


Figure 10.4Annualized Employment Growth:December 2013 – December 2016

74

Table 10.1

Population and Households: Nation, Mountain States Region, and States

Division/State 2013‐16 Rank 2016 Rank

United States 316,128,839 323,127,513 0.7% 118,860,065 2.72

Mountain States 22,881,245 23,815,467 1.4% 8,635,329 2.76

Arizona 6,626,624 6,931,071 14 1.5% 7 2,519,052 2.75 9

Colorado 5,268,367 5,540,545 21 1.7% 5 2,108,992 2.63 25

Idaho 1,612,136 1,683,140 39 1.5% 9 610,872 2.76 8

Montana 1,015,165 1,042,520 44 0.9% 16 416,125 2.51 46

Nevada 2,790,136 2,900,458 35 1.3% 11 1,055,158 2.75 10

New Mexico 2,085,287 2,081,015 36 ‐0.1% 47 758,364 2.74 11

Utah 2,900,872 3,051,217 31 1.7% 4 943,147 3.24 1

Wyoming 582,658 585,501 51 0.2% 38 223,619 2.62 28

Other States

Alabama 4,833,722 4,863,300 24 0.2% 36 1,852,518 2.63 26

Alaska 735,132 741,894 48 0.3% 32 248,468 2.99 4

Arkansas 2,959,373 2,988,248 33 0.3% 29 1,142,718 2.62 30

California 38,332,521 39,250,017 1 0.8% 18 12,944,178 3.03 3

Connecticut 3,596,080 3,576,452 29 ‐0.2% 49 1,357,269 2.64 23

Delaware 925,749 952,065 45 0.9% 15 351,085 2.71 17

District of Columbia 646,449 681,170 49 1.8% 2 281,241 2.42 50

Florida 19,552,860 20,612,439 3 1.8% 1 7,573,456 2.72 15

Georgia 9,992,167 10,310,371 8 1.1% 13 3,686,135 2.80 7

Hawaii 1,404,054 1,428,557 40 0.6% 25 455,868 3.13 2

Illinois 12,882,135 12,801,539 5 ‐0.2% 50 4,822,046 2.65 20

Indiana 6,570,902 6,633,053 17 0.3% 31 2,533,270 2.62 27

Iowa 3,090,416 3,134,693 30 0.5% 27 1,247,932 2.51 44

Kansas 2,893,957 2,907,289 34 0.2% 41 1,110,407 2.62 29

Kentucky 4,395,295 4,436,974 26 0.3% 30 1,717,706 2.58 37

Louisiana 4,625,470 4,681,666 25 0.4% 28 1,720,801 2.72 16

Maine 1,328,302 1,331,479 42 0.1% 44 531,660 2.50 47

Maryland 5,928,814 6,016,447 19 0.5% 26 2,194,657 2.74 12

Massachusetts 6,692,824 6,811,779 15 0.6% 24 2,579,398 2.64 22

Michigan 9,895,622 9,928,300 10 0.1% 43 3,884,153 2.56 41

Minnesota 5,420,380 5,519,952 22 0.6% 22 2,148,725 2.57 38

Mississippi 2,991,207 2,988,726 32 0.0% 46 1,091,245 2.74 14

Missouri 6,044,171 6,093,000 18 0.3% 34 2,372,190 2.57 39

Nebraska 1,868,516 1,907,116 37 0.7% 20 747,562 2.55 42

New Hampshire 1,323,459 1,334,795 41 0.3% 33 520,643 2.56 40

New Jersey 8,899,339 8,944,469 11 0.2% 37 3,194,519 2.80 6

New York 19,651,127 19,745,289 4 0.2% 39 7,209,054 2.74 13

North Carolina 9,848,060 10,146,788 9 1.0% 14 3,882,423 2.61 31

North Dakota 723,393 757,952 47 1.6% 6 315,134 2.41 51

Ohio 11,570,808 11,614,373 7 0.1% 42 4,624,669 2.51 45

Oklahoma 3,850,568 3,923,561 28 0.6% 21 1,469,342 2.67 19

Oregon 3,930,065 4,093,465 27 1.4% 10 1,571,678 2.60 32

Pennsylvania 12,773,801 12,784,227 6 0.0% 45 4,937,771 2.59 35

Rhode Island 1,051,511 1,056,426 43 0.2% 40 408,239 2.59 36

South Carolina 4,774,839 4,961,119 23 1.3% 12 1,877,887 2.64 21

South Dakota 844,877 865,454 46 0.8% 17 334,003 2.59 34

Tennessee 6,495,978 6,651,194 16 0.8% 19 2,556,332 2.60 33

Texas 26,448,193 27,862,596 2 1.8% 3 9,535,612 2.92 5

Vermont 626,630 624,594 50 ‐0.1% 48 254,851 2.45 49

Virginia 8,260,405 8,411,808 12 0.6% 23 3,120,692 2.70 18

Washington 6,971,406 7,288,000 13 1.5% 8 2,768,076 2.63 24

West Virginia 1,854,304 1,831,102 38 ‐0.4% 51 722,125 2.54 43

Wisconsin 5,742,713 5,778,708 20 0.2% 35 2,326,998 2.48 48

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates and U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Note: * Persons per household is calculated by dividing population (2016) by number of households (2016)

Households3yr Annualized

Growth

2016 Rank20162013

Persons per

Household*

2016

Population, July 1 Estimate

75

Table 10.2

Gross Domestic Product and Personal Income: Nation, Mountain States Region, and States

2013 2016 2016 2016

Division/State (millions) (millions) 2013‐16 Rank 2013 2016 Rank 2013‐16 Rank (thousands) 2015 2016 Rank

United States $15,348,034 $16,385,170 2.3% ‐ $48,550 50,708$ ‐ 1.5% ‐ $15,912,777,000 $48,498 $49,246 ‐

Mountain States 975,481 1,050,253 2.6% ‐ 42,632 44,100 ‐ 1.1% ‐ Arizona 253,743 270,205 2.2% 20 38,303 38,985 43 0.6% 38 280,120,037 39,156 40,415 43Colorado 265,880 291,251 3.2% 7 50,475 52,567 17 1.4% 22 288,103,337 50,898 51,999 15Idaho 56,014 60,687 2.8% 10 34,748 36,056 50 1.3% 27 66,433,410 38,391 39,470 46Montana 39,026 41,453 2.1% 22 38,476 39,763 41 1.1% 29 44,772,870 41,808 42,947 36Nevada 120,027 128,059 2.2% 18 43,075 43,557 38 0.4% 45 128,089,633 41,889 43,567 33New Mexico 82,696 86,486 1.5% 30 39,659 41,559 40 1.6% 15 80,064,958 37,938 38,474 49Utah 122,685 136,979 3.9% 2 42,267 44,893 31 2.1% 5 124,871,199 39,308 40,925 42Wyoming 35,410 35,133 ‐0.3% 50 60,770 60,004 8 ‐0.4% 49 32,270,465 56,080 55,116 10

Other StatesAlabama 177,049 181,897 0.9% 40 36,660 37,402 46 0.7% 34 189,161,974 38,029 38,896 48Alaska 51,361 46,975 ‐2.8% 51 69,700 63,317 7 ‐3.1% 51 41,283,275 56,146 55,646 9Arkansas 106,112 109,144 1.0% 39 35,865 36,524 48 0.6% 37 118,697,988 38,252 39,722 44California 2,064,534 2,320,345 4.1% 1 53,855 59,117 9 3.3% 1 2,212,691,221 53,741 56,374 7Connecticut 224,931 227,592 0.4% 46 62,550 63,636 6 0.6% 39 247,886,635 68,704 69,311 2Delaware 56,189 60,984 2.8% 9 60,719 64,054 5 1.8% 9 45,574,410 47,632 47,869 22District of Columbia 103,540 109,425 1.9% 26 159,497 160,643 1 0.2% 47 51,842,801 73,301 76,108 1Florida 744,576 814,309 3.1% 8 38,023 39,506 42 1.3% 24 947,207,472 44,429 45,953 28Georgia 424,360 465,411 3.2% 5 42,500 45,140 30 2.1% 6 434,677,178 40,306 42,159 41Hawaii 69,676 74,026 2.1% 21 49,539 51,819 19 1.5% 19 71,946,077 48,288 50,363 19Illinois 669,261 696,459 1.4% 35 51,963 54,404 14 1.6% 16 663,338,023 50,295 51,817 16Indiana 288,157 304,966 1.9% 24 43,866 45,977 29 1.6% 14 285,863,662 41,940 43,097 35Iowa 148,419 162,729 3.2% 6 48,002 51,912 18 2.7% 2 144,195,709 45,902 46,000 27Kansas 131,536 134,367 0.7% 42 45,470 46,217 28 0.5% 41 137,305,437 47,161 47,228 24Kentucky 168,306 172,821 0.9% 41 38,247 38,950 45 0.6% 36 172,713,808 38,588 38,926 47Louisiana 202,289 208,105 1.0% 37 43,725 44,451 33 0.6% 40 198,025,102 42,947 42,298 39Maine 49,810 51,869 1.4% 34 37,477 38,956 44 1.3% 23 58,655,433 42,798 44,053 32Maryland 318,888 337,345 1.9% 25 53,765 56,070 12 1.4% 21 349,266,576 55,971 58,052 6Massachusetts 415,030 444,680 2.4% 14 61,882 65,281 2 1.8% 8 437,551,353 62,603 64,235 3Michigan 405,793 433,521 2.3% 16 40,993 43,665 37 2.2% 4 439,361,467 42,812 44,253 31Minnesota 281,759 300,362 2.2% 19 51,999 54,414 13 1.5% 17 287,249,809 50,871 52,038 14Mississippi 95,465 95,944 0.2% 47 31,923 32,102 51 0.2% 48 106,052,785 34,771 35,484 51Missouri 256,738 262,026 0.7% 44 42,487 43,004 39 0.4% 44 261,547,770 42,300 42,926 37Nebraska 96,352 102,888 2.3% 17 51,565 53,949 15 1.5% 18 95,411,344 48,544 50,029 20New Hampshire 64,641 68,623 2.1% 23 48,871 51,411 21 1.7% 12 74,687,026 55,905 55,954 8New Jersey 496,128 505,941 0.7% 45 55,750 56,565 11 0.5% 42 549,835,795 59,949 61,472 4New York 1,228,488 1,279,691 1.4% 33 62,444 64,810 3 1.3% 26 1,176,080,244 58,670 59,563 5North Carolina 422,644 451,639 2.3% 15 42,945 44,511 32 1.2% 28 428,638,808 40,759 42,244 40North Dakota 48,981 48,612 ‐0.3% 49 67,651 64,136 4 ‐1.7% 50 41,404,978 55,949 54,627 11Ohio 523,587 553,224 1.9% 27 45,254 47,633 27 1.8% 11 517,918,190 43,566 44,593 30Oklahoma 166,762 174,033 1.5% 32 43,288 44,356 34 0.8% 32 167,502,814 45,573 42,692 38Oregon 188,806 209,035 3.6% 4 48,094 51,066 22 2.1% 7 185,839,645 43,783 45,399 29Pennsylvania 617,053 647,708 1.7% 29 48,278 50,665 23 1.6% 13 648,694,472 49,745 50,742 17Rhode Island 48,815 50,433 1.1% 36 46,356 47,739 26 1.0% 30 53,272,444 50,017 50,427 18South Carolina 170,217 183,933 2.7% 11 35,701 37,075 47 1.3% 25 196,049,325 38,302 39,517 45South Dakota 39,601 41,375 1.5% 31 46,869 47,808 25 0.7% 35 41,398,241 47,881 47,834 23Tennessee 269,453 290,580 2.6% 12 41,487 43,688 36 1.8% 10 288,169,968 42,094 43,326 34Texas 1,377,100 1,480,304 2.5% 13 52,018 53,129 16 0.7% 33 1,289,310,024 46,947 46,274 26Vermont 26,913 27,472 0.7% 43 42,914 43,984 35 0.8% 31 31,219,885 48,586 49,984 21Virginia 422,275 434,409 1.0% 38 51,106 51,643 20 0.4% 46 445,461,657 52,052 52,957 13Washington 377,393 420,712 3.8% 3 54,161 57,727 10 2.2% 3 397,772,297 51,898 54,579 12West Virginia 66,261 66,367 0.1% 48 35,755 36,244 49 0.5% 43 67,061,987 36,758 36,624 50Wisconsin 263,282 276,415 1.7% 28 45,845 47,833 24 1.4% 20 270,225,982 45,914 46,762 25

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State Gross Domestic Product

Per Capita3yr Annualized 3yr Annualized

Growth Growth

Real Gross Domestic Product Real GDP Per Capita(chained to 2009 dollars) (chained to 2009 dollars)

Personal Income

76

11. Social Indicators

Joshua Spolsdoff, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

2017 Overview

Social indicators provide insights into “noneconomic” dimensions of life in Utah. Our selective review includes commuting, internet, crime rates, education, homeownership, and poverty.

Commuting The 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) showed 75.8 percent of working Utahns drove alone as their means of transportation to work, 11.0 percent carpooled, 2.7 percent used public transportation, 2.7 percent walked, 0.7 percent rode a bicycle, 0.6 percent used other means, and 6.1 percent worked at home. The mean travel time to work was 21.3 minutes, which is the 10th shortest in the nation.

Internet Data from the 2016 American Community Survey estimates that 94.5 percent of households in Utah have a computer. Of these, 85.4 percent—805,275 households—have a broadband internet subscription, 0.4 percent have a dial‐up, and 14.2 percent have a computer without an internet subscription. Only 5.5 percent of Utah households do not have a computer.

Crime The Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reports for 2016 reported the rate of violent crime (murder and non‐negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault) for Utah was 242.8 per 100,000 people, the ninth lowest in the nation, and an increase from 238.7 per 100,000 people in 2015. This is in comparison to the national rate of 397.1 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 2016. As such, Utah continued to have a significantly lower rate of violent crime than the U.S. Utah’s property crime was 2,951.5 per 100,000 people, 10th highest in the nation and above the national average of 2,450.7 per 100,000 people.

Education In 2016, the ACS reported 91.7 percent of Utahns age 25 years and older had at least a high school degree, ranking Utah as the 12th in the nation. The national rate was 87.5 percent. Utah also ranked 18th in higher education attainment, with 32.6 percent of persons 25 years and over having obtained a bachelor's degree or higher. For higher education, Utah males ranked 11th highest in the nation (34.5 percent) while Utah females rank 30th (30.7), a difference of 19 places in ranking. The national rate was 31.3 percent.

Homeownership For 2016, Utah’s homeownership rates have risen to 71.3 percent, a 1.4 percentage point increase from the previous year. This was the first‐time homeownership rates have increased since 2009 when the impacts of the Great Recession began to appear in the housing market. Utah is still far from its peak in 2008 when homeownership reached 76.2 percent, however, the increase this year improves Utah’s national homeownership ranking from 11th in 2015 to 7th in 2016. The average rate for the nation was 63.4 percent. The states with the highest home ownership were West Virginia with a rate of 74.8 percent, Delaware at 73.0 percent, and Michigan at 72.8 percent. The lowest rates of home ownership occurred in the District of Columbia with a rate of 40.8 percent, New York at 51.5 percent, and California at 53.8 percent.

Poverty The rate of all people in poverty in Utah in 2016 was 10.2 percent. This rate is a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from 2015. Utah had the 11th lowest rate in the nation and was below the national rate of 14.0 percent. New Hampshire had the lowest poverty rate (7.3 percent) and Mississippi had the highest (20.8 percent). Compared to other states, Utah had very low rates of participation in public assistance programs for people with low incomes, partially due to its relatively low poverty rate.

77

Table 11.1

Crime, Education, and Home Ownership

High School or Higher Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Rate Rank Rate Rank Total Rank Male Rank Female Rank Total Rank Male Rank Female Rank Percent Rank

U.S. 397.1 2,450.7 87.5 86.7 88.1 31.28 30.8 31.7 63.4

Alabama 532.3 8 2,947.8 14 85.1 47 83.6 47 86.5 46 24.7 45 24.4 45 25.0 45 69.7 13Alaska 804.2 2 3,353.0 4 93.1 2 92.9 1 93.3 7 29.6 27 26.0 41 33.4 17 65.2 33Arizona 470.1 13 2,978.4 11 86.7 38 86.1 36 87.3 41 28.9 31 29.1 26 28.7 34 61.9 41Arkansas 550.9 7 3,268.6 6 86.0 44 84.7 43 87.1 42 22.4 49 21.4 49 23.3 50 67.6 21California 445.3 16 2,553.0 28 82.4 51 82.2 49 82.7 51 32.9 15 32.9 16 32.9 20 53.8 49Colorado 342.6 29 2,740.7 20 91.4 13 91.0 9 91.9 13 39.9 3 39.5 3 40.3 3 62.4 38Connecticut 227.1 47 1,808.0 43 90.5 18 90.2 16 90.8 24 38.6 5 38.1 6 39.1 5 64.2 35Delaware 508.8 10 2,766.0 18 89.3 28 87.7 32 90.8 22 31.0 22 30.6 19 31.3 25 73.0 2District of Columbia 1,205.9 1 4,802.9 1 90.5 19 90.5 14 90.4 27 56.8 1 57.8 1 56.0 1 40.8 51Florida 430.3 19 2,686.8 23 87.4 35 86.5 35 88.2 36 28.6 33 28.8 28 28.5 35 64.3 34Georgia 397.6 22 3,004.5 8 86.4 40 84.9 42 87.7 39 30.5 24 29.3 25 31.5 24 62.3 39Hawaii 309.2 31 2,992.7 9 92.0 9 92.3 4 91.6 15 31.9 19 30.4 21 33.5 15 57.7 46Idaho 230.3 46 1,744.2 44 90.4 21 90.0 18 90.9 21 27.6 37 28.3 29 27.0 41 70.5 10Illinois 436.3 17 2,049.0 35 88.8 31 87.9 31 89.7 30 34.0 14 33.2 15 34.7 13 65.3 32Indiana 404.7 21 2,589.4 25 88.4 33 87.6 33 89.0 32 25.6 43 25.1 43 26.1 43 70.9 9Iowa 290.6 36 2,086.0 34 91.8 11 90.9 12 92.6 10 28.4 35 27.4 34 29.4 31 70.0 12Kansas 380.4 23 2,695.5 22 90.5 17 89.9 19 91.2 17 32.8 16 32.4 17 33.3 18 67.1 23Kentucky 232.3 45 2,189.7 32 85.7 45 84.6 45 86.7 43 23.4 47 22.6 47 24.2 47 67.9 19Louisiana 566.1 6 3,297.7 5 84.4 48 82.0 50 86.6 45 23.4 48 22.0 48 24.6 46 64.2 35Maine 123.8 51 1,645.7 47 92.3 7 90.9 10 93.6 3 30.1 26 27.6 33 32.5 22 72.6 4Maryland 472.0 12 2,284.5 30 90.1 25 89.0 27 91.1 18 39.3 4 38.9 4 39.7 4 66.5 27Massachusetts 376.9 24 1,561.1 48 90.4 20 89.8 21 91.0 20 42.7 2 42.0 2 43.4 2 59.7 45Michigan 459.0 14 1,909.9 40 90.4 22 89.7 23 91.1 19 28.3 36 28.1 30 28.4 36 72.8 3Minnesota 242.6 43 2,133.3 33 92.9 3 92.6 3 93.3 8 34.8 12 33.7 13 35.9 11 72.4 5Mississippi 280.5 37 2,768.1 17 84.1 49 81.9 51 86.1 49 21.8 50 19.4 51 23.9 49 69.7 13Missouri 519.4 9 2,799.1 16 89.6 27 89.2 26 89.9 29 28.5 34 27.7 32 29.1 32 66.7 26Montana 368.3 27 2,683.5 24 92.8 5 92.0 5 93.7 2 31.0 21 30.2 22 31.7 23 67.1 23Nebraska 291.0 35 2,263.3 31 90.9 15 89.9 20 91.9 14 31.4 20 29.4 24 33.4 16 68.0 18Nevada 678.1 4 2,586.6 26 86.0 42 85.7 40 86.4 47 23.5 46 22.7 46 24.2 48 54.5 48New Hampshire 197.6 49 1,512.9 51 92.8 4 91.3 7 94.3 1 36.6 8 35.9 8 37.3 9 71.8 6New Jersey 245.0 40 1,544.6 50 89.3 29 88.9 28 89.6 31 38.6 6 38.4 5 38.7 7 62.2 40New Mexico 702.5 3 3,937.1 2 85.4 46 84.7 44 86.1 48 27.2 40 26.5 39 27.8 39 67.4 22New York 376.2 25 1,545.6 49 86.3 41 85.9 37 86.7 44 35.7 10 34.7 10 36.6 10 51.5 50North Carolina 372.2 26 2,737.5 21 87.3 36 85.8 39 88.7 34 30.4 25 29.6 23 31.1 26 65.7 31North Dakota 251.1 39 2,295.9 29 92.4 6 91.3 6 93.5 5 29.6 28 26.6 36 32.7 21 61.4 44Ohio 300.3 34 2,577.5 27 90.0 26 89.4 25 90.6 26 27.5 38 27.3 35 27.7 40 66.1 30Oklahoma 449.8 15 2,982.9 10 87.8 34 87.1 34 88.5 35 25.2 44 24.4 44 26.0 44 66.8 25Oregon 264.6 38 2,964.4 12 90.3 23 89.7 22 90.8 23 32.7 17 32.3 18 33.1 19 62.6 37Pennsylvania 316.4 30 1,742.7 45 90.1 24 89.6 24 90.7 25 30.8 23 30.6 20 31.0 28 68.5 17Rhode Island 238.9 44 1,898.7 41 88.5 32 88.4 30 88.7 33 34.1 13 33.6 14 34.5 14 56.3 47South Carolina 501.8 11 3,243.8 7 86.6 39 85.1 41 87.9 38 27.2 39 26.5 38 27.8 38 68.9 16South Dakota 418.4 20 1,980.6 37 91.2 14 90.2 17 92.1 12 28.9 32 26.6 37 31.1 27 69.4 15Tennessee 632.9 5 2,854.1 15 87.0 37 85.8 38 88.0 37 26.1 42 25.4 42 26.8 42 66.4 28Texas 434.4 18 2,759.8 19 82.9 50 82.3 48 83.5 50 28.9 30 28.8 27 28.9 33 61.5 43Utah 242.8 42 2,951.5 13 91.7 12 91.2 8 92.2 11 32.6 18 34.5 11 30.7 30 71.3 7Vermont 158.3 50 1,697.4 46 92.1 8 90.6 13 93.6 4 36.4 9 33.8 12 38.8 6 71.3 7Virginia 217.6 48 1,859.4 42 89.3 30 88.4 29 90.0 28 38.1 7 37.9 7 38.2 8 66.3 29Washington 302.2 33 3,494.1 3 90.8 16 90.4 15 91.2 16 35.1 11 35.2 9 35.1 12 61.6 42West Virginia 358.1 28 2,047.2 36 86.0 43 84.1 46 87.7 40 20.8 51 20.3 50 21.3 51 74.8 1Wisconsin 305.9 32 1,933.3 39 91.9 10 90.9 11 92.9 9 29.5 29 28.0 31 30.9 29 67.7 20Wyoming 244.2 41 1,957.3 38 93.2 1 92.9 2 93.4 6 27.1 41 26.3 40 27.9 37 70.2 11

Note: Rank is high to low. When states share the same rank, the next lower rank is omitted.* Violent crimes are offenses of murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault.** Property crimes are offenses of burglary, larceny‐theft, and motor‐vehicle thefts.

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, "Crime in the United States, 2016." U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey.U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey

Violent Crime*

per 100,000

People 2016 1

Property Crime**

per 100,000

People 2016 1

Educational Attainment for Persons 25 Years and Over 2016 2 Homeownership

Rates 20163

78

Table 11.2

Poverty and Public Assistance

Percent Rank Recipients

Rate per

1,000

People

Rank Persons

Rate per

1,000

People

Rank HouseholdsRate per 1,000

HouseholdsRank

U.S. 14.0 ‐ 2,673,767 8.3 ‐ 44,219,363 136.8 ‐ 21,777,938 183.2 ‐Alabama 17.1 5 24,608 5.1 31 850,804 174.9 7 399,728 215.8 11 Alaska 9.9 47 8,298 11.2 7 82,326 111.0 38 34,648 139.4 37 Arizona 16.4 8 19,722 2.8 44 960,105 138.5 25 427,061 169.5 29 Arkansas 17.2 4 8,009 2.7 45 426,069 142.6 22 191,636 167.7 31 California 14.3 20 952,452 24.3 1 4,340,042 110.6 40 2,093,562 161.7 33 Colorado 11.0 38 43,559 7.9 22 475,690 85.9 47 225,334 106.8 45 Connecticut 9.8 46 21,378 6.0 27 431,597 120.7 34 244,927 180.5 25 Delaware 11.7 34 11,846 12.4 4 147,559 155.0 14 71,099 202.5 15 District of Columbia 18.6 9 12,287 18.0 2 134,625 197.6 3 75,819 269.6 2 Florida 14.7 17 77,702 3.8 38 3,454,530 167.6 9 1,870,739 247.0 4 Georgia 16.0 10 24,260 2.4 47 1,733,473 168.1 8 800,670 217.2 10 Hawaii 9.3 45 17,163 12.0 6 176,729 123.7 32 89,095 195.4 20 Idaho 14.4 21 2,825 1.7 51 185,303 110.1 41 79,531 130.2 40 Illinois 13.0 29 33,245 2.6 46 1,914,393 149.5 19 996,092 206.6 14 Indiana 14.1 26 15,599 2.4 48 741,610 111.8 37 328,688 129.7 41 Iowa 11.8 35 25,515 8.1 20 380,705 121.4 33 178,874 143.3 36 Kansas 12.1 32 11,806 4.1 35 253,833 87.3 45 114,392 103.0 47 Kentucky 18.5 5 48,647 11.0 9 666,264 150.2 17 313,476 182.5 24 Louisiana 20.2 3 13,598 2.9 42 927,168 198.0 2 422,090 245.3 8 Maine 12.5 30 8,034 6.0 26 189,245 142.1 23 98,549 185.4 23 Maryland 9.7 50 51,310 8.5 16 744,343 123.7 31 388,957 177.2 26 Massachusetts 10.4 38 57,038 8.4 17 779,192 114.4 35 450,364 174.6 27 Michigan 15.0 16 39,140 3.9 36 1,473,614 148.4 20 777,906 200.3 17 Minnesota 9.9 48 44,990 8.2 19 478,783 86.7 46 231,228 107.6 44 Mississippi 20.8 1 11,387 3.8 37 582,658 195.0 5 269,082 246.6 6 Missouri 14.0 22 32,141 5.3 29 810,690 133.1 28 378,373 159.5 34 Montana 13.3 25 7,887 7.6 23 116,626 111.9 36 54,612 131.2 39 Nebraska 11.4 33 10,744 5.6 28 175,851 92.2 44 78,482 105.0 46 Nevada 13.8 24 24,397 8.3 18 439,782 149.6 18 222,253 210.6 13 New Hampshire 7.3 51 4,691 3.5 40 98,464 73.8 48 48,037 92.3 48 New Jersey 10.4 44 38,548 4.3 32 879,987 98.4 42 440,091 137.8 38 New Mexico 19.8 2 29,287 14.1 3 471,247 226.5 1 216,877 286.0 1 New York 14.7 18 239,848 12.1 5 2,968,227 150.3 16 1,635,764 226.9 9 North Carolina 15.4 13 29,161 2.9 43 1,568,387 154.6 15 761,999 196.3 19 North Dakota 10.7 43 2,703 3.6 39 54,252 71.6 50 25,262 80.2 50 Ohio 14.6 22 106,622 9.2 11 1,608,633 138.5 26 793,923 171.7 28 Oklahoma 16.3 14 15,935 4.1 34 612,869 156.2 13 276,268 188.0 22 Oregon 13.3 18 36,985 9.0 13 734,864 179.5 6 419,778 267.1 3 Pennsylvania 12.9 31 140,290 11.0 8 1,863,836 145.8 21 950,739 192.5 21 Rhode Island 12.8 27 9,631 9.1 12 171,055 161.9 12 100,433 246.0 7 South Carolina 15.3 12 20,519 4.1 33 805,012 162.3 11 378,328 201.5 16 South Dakota 13.3 28 6,037 7.0 24 95,983 110.9 39 42,234 126.4 42 Tennessee 15.8 11 66,538 10.0 10 1,113,231 167.4 10 547,850 214.3 12 Texas 15.6 15 63,791 2.3 49 3,768,472 135.3 27 1,588,116 166.5 32 Utah 10.2 40 8,909 2.9 41 219,820 72.0 49 86,244 91.4 49 Vermont 11.9 48 5,614 9.0 14 79,715 127.6 29 42,976 168.6 30 Virginia 11.0 41 43,555 5.2 30 826,354 98.2 43 387,633 124.2 43 Washington 11.3 35 65,095 8.9 15 1,011,412 138.8 24 546,931 197.6 18 West Virginia 17.9 7 14,798 8.1 21 357,531 195.3 4 178,274 246.9 5 Wisconsin 11.8 37 39,054 6.8 25 728,077 126.0 30 359,933 154.7 35 Wyoming 11.3 42 1,036 1.8 50 33,853 57.8 51 14,367 64.2 51

Note: Rank is high to low. When states share the same rank, the next lower rank is omitted.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, "FY14 through FY17 National View Summary." Rates calculated by the Kem C. Gardner. National total includes recipients in U.S. territories. Policy Institute using 2016 U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service. Rates calculated by the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute using 2016 U.S. Census Bureau population estimates.

All Ages in

Poverty 20161

Temporary Assistance for Needy

Families (TANF) Average 20162Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program FY 20163 Average

Monthly Participation

79

80

12. Economic Development

Matt Hilburn, EDCUtah Michael Stachitus, EDCUtah

2017 Overview

Job Growth 2017 was a year of continued economic growth for Utah. National economic gains continued to be marginal, and Utah remained among the top states in the nation for economic growth. Utah ranked second in the nation for year‐over‐year job growth. October 2017 data from the Utah Department of Workforce Services shows Utah’s year‐over job growth rate was 2.7 percent, almost double the national rate (1.4 percent).1 This corresponds to more than 39,000 jobs added to Utah’s economy.2

Quality professional jobs increased substantially in 2017. In particular, information jobs grew by 6.0 percent year‐over, and professional, scientific, and technical services jobs grew by 3.9 percent year‐over, both rates significantly higher than the national average.3

The Economic Development Corporation of Utah and the Governor’s Office of Economic Development worked together to support 30 companies who announced decisions to relocate or expand in Utah, adding a projected 11,456 jobs to the state’s economy and retaining an additional 1,598 jobs.4 This represents projected capital investments in Utah totaling more than $1 billion.5

Major Projects Notable expansions or relocations in 2017 include the planned expansion of Pluralsight with 4,464 jobs to south of Salt Lake City, Stryker with 540 jobs in Salt

1 “Employment Update.” Utah Department of Workforce Services. Web. 9 Dec. 2017. 2 “State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Web. 9 Dec. 2017. 3 “Utah Nonagricultural Jobs by Industry and Components of the Labor Force.” Utah Department of Workforce Services. Web. 9 Dec. 2017. 4 Project Report. The Economic Development Corporation of Utah. Internal data. 9 Dec. 2017. 5 Project Report. The Economic Development Corporation of Utah. Internal data. 9 Dec. 2017.

Lake City, Packsize with 354 jobs in Salt Lake City, and Electronic Power Systems with 128 jobs in Cache County. Adobe also announced a $90 million capital investment project in the state.6

In addition to business growth, infrastructure projects continue to enhance opportunities. Utah’s transportation infrastructure is one of the best in the country. In particular, Salt Lake City is undergoing a 10‐year, $3 billion plus remodel of its international airport that is expected to contribute $3.3 billion to the state’s economy.7

Business Climate Utah’s young, educated workforce continues to grow, state and local governments remain fiscally responsible and stable, and the cost of doing business remains lower than the national average. Utah continues to receive recognition as a leading global business destination, enjoying accolades from national sources like Forbes, which has ranked Utah the #1 Best State for Business six of the past eight years.8

Utah also ranked first on the Pollina Corporate “Top 10 Pro‐Business States” and has for the past four years. Factors that contribute to this ranking include a stable regulatory environment, low unemployment, ease of starting a business, low operation costs, a well‐educated workforce, and high quality of life.9

Trends Utah’s strategic industry clusters employed 224,471 Utahns in 2017, up from 217,749 in 2016, demonstrating 3.1 percent growth.10 Utah’s industry

6 “News Room.” Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Development. Web 4 Dec. 2017. 7 “Airport Terminal Redevelopment Program Construction Cost Rise.” Salt Lake International Airport. Web 9 Dec. 2017. 8 “Best States for Business.” Forbes Magazine. Web. 4 Dec. 2017. 9 “Pollina Corporate Top 10 Pro‐Business States.” Pollina Corporate Real Estate. Web. 4 Dec. 2017. 10 The Economic Development Corporation of Utah. Internal data. 9 Dec. 2017.

81

clusters include aerospace and defense, energy and natural resources, financial services, life sciences, outdoor products, and software development and information technology.

Utah‐based companies raised $623 million from private investors in 2016. 2017 continued with strong investment deals bringing over $627 million in investment through three quarters.11

11 “Historical Trend Data.” PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Web. 6 Dec. 2017.

2018 Outlook

2018 is expected to show continued growth. Because of Utah’s diverse mix of industries, the state economy is expected to mirror trends in the national economy, but at a greater rate.12

Utah continues to attract relocation projects, as well as the attention of national and global site selectors, and is primed for the best organizations and talent to bring their business to the state.

12 “Utah’s Economy Among the Most Diverse in the Nation,” Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2017. 16 Jan. 2017.

82

Source: Economic Development Corporation of Utah

Figure 12.1Economic Development Project Summary

110

146 140

6255

3133 30 30

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2015 2016 2017

Opened Projects Site Visits Project Wins

83

84

13. Public Education

Jaime Barrett, Utah State Board of Education Jill Curry, Utah State Board of Education Natalie Grange, Utah State Board of Education Kirin McInnis, Utah State Board of Education

2017 Overview

Enrollment In fall 2017, there were 652,347 students in Utah’s public education system, an increase of 7,871 students (1.2 percent) over 2016. There were 47,649 kindergarten students, a decrease of 639 students over the previous fall 2016 (48,288) or ‐1.32 percent.

Although Utah’s student population is primarily white (74.6 percent), it is becoming more diverse. In fall 2017, 17.0 percent of Utah’s student body was Hispanic or Latino, 1.7 percent was Asian, 1.6 percent was Pacific Islander, 1.0 percent was American Indian and Alaska Native, 1.4 percent was African American or Black, and the remaining students identified with multiple ethnicities.

In 2017, there were 112 operating charter schools in Utah. Charter schools operate independently of school districts, but receive public funds and must adhere to federal and state laws in using those funds for operations. Charter schools are educating 75,566 students, about 11.6 percent of all Utah students in public schools.

Finances In fiscal year 2014, the most recent year for which National Center of Education Statistics data are available by state, Utah’s net current expenditure per pupil was $6,546, the nation’s lowest. Net current expenditure does not include spending for capital; including capital spending total expenditure per pupil for fiscal year 2014 was $7,815. However, some consider the measure of current expenditure as a percent of total personal income a better measure of Utah’s effort to fund public education. In this measure, Utah ranks 31st nationally, at 3.7 percent. Utah’s per pupil net current expenditures for fiscal year 2017 was $7,298.

In the 2017 General Session, the Legislature appropriated funds for an increase of $127 (four

percent) in the regular Weighted Pupil Unit (WPU) value, increasing it from $3,184 to $3,311 for fiscal year 2018. The cost of the Basic School Program is projected to be $2,849,024,700, which is funded by $399,041,300 (14.01 percent) from a statewide uniform property tax rate (the basic levy) and $2,422,483,400 (85.03 percent) in state income tax revenues.

Achievement In 2017, Utah ranked 33rd in the nation with an ACT Average Composite Score of 20.3. Utah is one of only 17 states in the nation where the test is offered to 100 percent of high school students.

Statewide, the class of 2017 graduation rate was 86 percent, a one percentage point increase from the prior year graduation rate of 85 percent.

In 2017, Utah’s pupil‐teacher ratio was 21.8, which is the same as in 2016.

A total of 32,849 Utah students earned 233,626 hours of college credit in 2017 through Utah’s concurrent enrollment program. This total represents a nine percent increase in students over 2016 and 96 percent of them are passing their college courses.

A total of 25,508 Utah public school students took 39,223 Advanced Placement (AP) exams in 2017 with a 67 percent pass rate, meaning the scores were good enough to earn college credit. Nationally, the pass rate was only 57 percent.

Utah has 13 schools involved in the International Baccalaureate (IB) program including nine that offer IB diplomas.

157 Utah schools—or about 14 percent of all Utah schools—offer dual immersion programs in French (16), German (2), Mandarin Chinese (42), Portuguese (6), and Spanish (86). Five of these schools offer more than one language.

85

2018‐2019 Outlook

Enrollment Growth in student enrollment is expected for several years, as Utah continues to experience net in‐migration, the nation’s highest birth rate, and the nation’s second highest fertility rate. Total enrollment in the public education system in Utah in fall of 2018 is forecasted to increase by 7,681 students (1.2 percent) to 660,082. A projected additional $68 million in state funds are needed to fund student growth.

For the past four school years, the incoming kindergarten class was smaller than in previous years. This change corresponds to a declining number of total births five years prior. Based on births, the trend of declining kindergarten size is expected to continue until at least the 2019‐20 school year.

Charter school enrollment in Utah has increased by approximately 6.8 percent per year, on average, over the last four years. It is forecasted that enrollment in charter schools in Utah will grow by 5.6 percent in the fall of 2018.

86

Source: Utah State Board of Education, School Finance & Data and Statistics f = forecast

Figure 13.1Utah Public Education Enrollment

FY 1985‐ FY 2019

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019f

Number of Studen

ts

Fiscal Year

Districts Charters

Figure 13.2Percent Change in Public Education Enrollment:

FY 1985 – FY 2019

Source: Utah State Board of Education, School Finance & Data and Statistics f = forecast

‐1%

‐1%

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019f

Percen

t Chan

ge

Fiscal Year

87

Figure 13.3Largest Enrollment

FY 2018

17,895

22,845

30,015

31,957

32,809

33,907

53,519

66,024

71,908

75,566

78,853

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

Cache

Salt Lake

Washing…

Weber

Nebo

Canyons

Jordan

Granite

Davis

Charters

Alpine

Number of StudentsSource: Utah State Board of Education, School Finance & Data and Statistics

Figure 13.4Largest Enrollment Growth

FY 2017 to FY 2018

1.9%

2.0%

2.0%

2.2%

2.5%

3.3%

3.3%

4.8%

5.7%

12.7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Jordan

Alpine

Cache

Washington

Morgan

North Sanpete

Wasatch

South Summit

Charters

Tooele

Percent Change

Source: Utah State Board of Education, School Finance & Data and Statistics

88

Figure 13.5Kindergarten Enrollment & Five Years Prior Births

2000 ‐ 2018

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Births K EnrollmentBirth year, Kindergarten start year

Sources: Utah State Board of Education ‐ School Finance & Data and Statistics, Interagency Common Data Committee, and Utah Department of Health

Figure 13.6 U.S. FY17 Projection & Utah

Current Expenditures per Pupil in EnrollmentFY 2002 – FY 2017

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000U.S. Utah

* For Fiscal Years 2015‐2017 U.S. data is projected and Utah data is actualNote: U.S. expenditures are in constant 2015‐16 dollars based on the Consumer Price Index adjusted to a school‐year basis Sources: USBE, School Finance, and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics

89

Figure 13.7Current Expenditures per Pupil

FY 2014

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

$22,000District of Columbia

New

York

New

Jersey

Alaska

Connecticut

Verm

ont

Wyo

ming

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

New

Ham

pshire

Marylan

dPennsylvan

ia

Delaware

Maine

Illinois

Haw

aii

North Dakota

Neb

raska

Ohio

Minnesota

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Virginia

Montana

Louisiana

Michigan

Iowa

Washington

Kan

sas

Orego

nMissouri

Arkan

sas

California

South Carolin

aKen

tucky

New M

exico

Indiana

Georgia

Alabam

aSo

uth Dakota

Colorado

Florida

Tennessee

Texas

North Carolin

aNevada

Mississippi

Oklah

oma

Arizona

Idah

oUtah

US: $11,066

Utah: $6,577

Sources: USBE, School Finance, US Department of Education, and the National Center for Education Statistics

Figure 13.8Current Expenditures as a % of Personal Income

FY 2014

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Alaska

New

Jersey

West Virginia

Maine

Rhode Island

Arkan

sas

New M

exico

Georgia

Neb

raska

Mississippi

Pennsylvan

ia

Ken

tucky

Iowa

Massachusetts

Alabam

a

Utah

Missouri

Texas

District of…

Virginia

Nevada

Arizona

Oklah

oma

Washington

Colorado

Florida

U.S. 3.74%Utah 3.69%

Sources: USBE, School Finance, US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis

90

Figure 13.9Utah Total Enrollment & Current Expenditures per Pupil

FY 2017

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000Alpine

Charters

Davis

Granite

Jordan

Can

yons

Nebo

Weber

Washington

Salt Lake

Provo

Cache

Tooele

Ogd

en

Box Elder

Iron

Uintah

Wasatch

Murray

Logan

Duchesne

Park City

Sevier

Carbon

South San

pete

Morgan

San Juan

Millard

Juab

North San

pete

Emery

South Summit

Beaver

Grand

Kan

e

North Summit

Garfield

Rich

Wayne

Piute

Tintic

Dagge

tt

Enrollment Per Pupil ExpendituresSource: USBE, School Finance

91

Table 13.1

Utah Public School Enrollment and State of Utah Population

October 1 Annual Percent July 1 Annual Percent Enrollment/

Enrollment Change Change State Pop Change Change Population1980 342,885 10,310 3.1% 1,474,000 58,050 4.1% 23.3%1981 354,540 11,655 3.4% 1,515,000 41,000 2.8% 23.4%1982 369,338 14,798 4.2% 1,558,000 43,000 2.8% 23.7%1983 378,208 8,870 2.4% 1,595,000 37,000 2.4% 23.7%1984 390,141 11,933 3.2% 1,622,000 27,000 1.7% 24.1%1985 403,305 13,164 3.4% 1,643,000 21,000 1.3% 24.5%1986 415,994 12,689 3.1% 1,663,000 20,000 1.2% 25.0%1987 423,386 7,392 1.8% 1,678,000 15,000 0.9% 25.2%1988 429,551 6,165 1.5% 1,690,000 12,000 0.7% 25.4%1989 435,762 6,211 1.4% 1,706,000 16,000 0.9% 25.5%1990 444,732 8,970 2.1% 1,729,227 23,227 1.4% 25.7%1991 454,218 9,486 2.1% 1,780,870 51,643 3.0% 25.5%1992 461,259 7,041 1.6% 1,838,149 57,279 3.2% 25.1%1993 468,675 7,416 1.6% 1,889,393 51,244 2.8% 24.8%1994 471,402 2,727 0.6% 1,946,721 57,328 3.0% 24.2%1995 473,666 2,264 0.5% 1,995,228 48,507 2.5% 23.7%1996 478,028 4,362 0.9% 2,042,893 47,665 2.4% 23.4%1997 479,151 1,123 0.2% 2,099,409 56,516 2.8% 22.8%1998 477,061 ‐2,090 ‐0.4% 2,141,632 42,223 2.0% 22.3%1999 475,974 ‐1,087 ‐0.2% 2,193,014 51,382 2.4% 21.7%2000 475,269 ‐705 ‐0.1% 2,246,468 53,454 2.4% 21.2%2001 477,801 2,532 0.5% 2,290,634 44,166 2.0% 20.9%2002 481,143 3,342 0.7% 2,331,826 41,192 1.8% 20.6%2003 486,938 5,795 1.2% 2,372,458 40,632 1.7% 20.5%2004 495,682 8,744 1.8% 2,430,223 57,765 2.4% 20.4%2005 510,012 14,330 2.9% 2,505,843 75,620 3.1% 20.4%2006 525,660 15,648 3.1% 2,576,229 70,386 2.8% 20.4%2007 537,653 11,993 2.3% 2,636,075 59,846 2.3% 20.4%2008 551,013 13,360 2.5% 2,691,122 55,047 2.1% 20.5%2009 563,273 12,260 2.2% 2,731,560 40,438 1.5% 20.6%2010 576,335 13,062 2.3% 2,772,373 40,813 1.5% 20.8%2011 587,745 11,410 2.0% 2,820,613 48,240 1.7% 20.8%2012 600,985 13,240 2.3% 2,864,744 44,131 1.6% 21.0%2013 612,551 11,566 1.9% 2,902,131 37,387 1.3% 21.1%2014 622,182 9,631 1.6% 2,941,848 39,717 1.4% 21.1%2015 633,896 11,714 1.9% 2,997,404 55,556 1.9% 21.1%2016 644,476 10,580 1.7% 3,054,806 57,402 1.9% 21.1%2017 652,347 7,871 1.2% 3,123,607 68,801 2.3% 20.9%2018f 660,028 7,681 1.2% 3,193,415 69,808 2.2% 20.7%

f = forecast

Source: Utah State Board of Education (enrollment counts). Interagency Common Data Committee (county‐level single‐year. State Population and 2018 Forecast: Pam Perlich, Ph.D., Demography Utah Population Committee (DUPC) estimates for 2010‐2017 and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute,

Year

92

Table 13.2

Fall Enrollment by District

FY 2015

10/1/14

FY 2016

10/1/15

FY 2017

10/1/16

FY 2018

10/1/17

FY 2019f

10/1/18fFY15‐16 FY16‐17 FY17‐18 FY18‐19f FY15‐16 FY16‐17 FY17‐18 FY18‐19f Size Total Change

Percent

Change

Alpine 73,570 75,307 77,343 78,853 80,047 1,737 2,036 1,510 1,194 2.4% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1 3 9

Beaver 1,516 1,563 1,519 1,540 1,548 47 ‐44 21 8 3.1% ‐2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 33 20 14

Box Elder 11,238 11,341 11,572 11,671 11,789 103 231 99 118 0.9% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% 15 11 20

Cache 16,457 16,976 17,536 17,895 18,253 519 560 359 358 3.2% 3.3% 2.0% 2.0% 11 9 8

Canyons 33,676 33,899 34,017 33,907 33,857 223 118 ‐110 ‐50 0.7% 0.3% ‐0.3% ‐0.1% 6 37 26

Carbon 3,384 3,383 3,348 3,364 3,353 ‐1 ‐35 16 ‐11 0.0% ‐1.0% 0.5% ‐0.3% 24 21 23

Daggett 174 181 183 163 159 7 2 ‐20 ‐4 4.0% 1.1% ‐10.9% ‐2.5% 42 31 42

Davis 69,139 69,879 71,021 71,908 72,525 740 1,142 887 617 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.9% 3 5 16

Duchesne 5,170 5,076 5,009 5,103 5,192 ‐94 ‐67 94 89 ‐1.8% ‐1.3% 1.9% 1.7% 21 13 11

Emery 2,281 2,220 2,174 2,184 2,194 ‐61 ‐46 10 10 ‐2.7% ‐2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 31 22 24

Garfield 926 922 904 909 909 ‐4 ‐18 5 0 ‐0.4% ‐2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 37 24 22

Grand 1,456 1,451 1,483 1,451 1,435 ‐5 32 ‐32 ‐16 ‐0.3% 2.2% ‐2.2% ‐1.1% 34 32 38

Granite 67,660 67,822 67,177 66,024 65,492 162 ‐645 ‐1,153 ‐532 0.2% ‐1.0% ‐1.7% ‐0.8% 4 41 34

Iron 8,814 8,933 9,074 9,169 9,269 119 141 95 100 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.1% 16 12 18

Jordan 51,806 52,324 52,507 53,519 53,278 518 183 1,012 ‐241 1.0% 0.3% 1.9% ‐0.5% 5 4 10

Juab 2,322 2,412 2,513 2,510 2,500 90 101 ‐3 ‐10 3.9% 4.2% ‐0.1% ‐0.4% 29 25 25

Kane 1,193 1,209 1,256 1,250 1,236 16 47 ‐6 ‐14 1.3% 3.9% ‐0.5% ‐1.1% 35 29 27

Logan 5,965 5,957 5,719 5,555 5,629 ‐8 ‐238 ‐164 74 ‐0.1% ‐4.0% ‐2.9% 1.3% 20 38 39

Millard 2,852 2,803 2,840 2,884 2,914 ‐49 37 44 30 ‐1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 28 18 13

Morgan 2,766 2,836 2,994 3,069 3,148 70 158 75 79 2.5% 5.6% 2.5% 2.6% 26 16 6

Murray 6,415 6,502 6,494 6,416 6,411 87 ‐8 ‐78 ‐5 1.4% ‐0.1% ‐1.2% ‐0.1% 19 36 32

Nebo 31,393 31,895 32,437 32,809 33,204 502 542 372 395 1.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.2% 7 8 17

North Sanpete 2,385 2,377 2,360 2,438 2,487 ‐8 ‐17 78 49 ‐0.3% ‐0.7% 3.3% 2.0% 30 14 5

North Summit 1,004 1,034 1,042 1,048 1,047 30 8 6 ‐1 3.0% 0.8% 0.6% ‐0.1% 36 23 21

Ogden 12,350 12,128 12,192 11,736 11,625 ‐222 64 ‐456 ‐111 ‐1.8% 0.5% ‐3.7% ‐0.9% 14 40 40

Park City 4,739 4,763 4,891 4,816 4,805 24 128 ‐75 ‐11 0.5% 2.7% ‐1.5% ‐0.2% 22 35 33

Piute 302 291 280 274 266 ‐11 ‐11 ‐6 ‐8 ‐3.6% ‐3.8% ‐2.1% ‐2.9% 40 29 37

Provo 16,600 16,983 17,840 15,991 16,140 383 857 ‐1,849 149 2.3% 5.0% ‐10.4% 0.9% 13 42 41

Rich 478 492 497 494 491 14 5 ‐3 ‐3 2.9% 1.0% ‐0.6% ‐0.6% 38 25 28

Salt Lake 23,615 23,600 23,047 22,845 22,735 ‐15 ‐553 ‐202 ‐110 ‐0.1% ‐2.3% ‐0.9% ‐0.5% 10 39 31

San Juan 3,022 2,975 2,940 2,889 2,859 ‐47 ‐35 ‐51 ‐30 ‐1.6% ‐1.2% ‐1.7% ‐1.0% 27 34 35

Sevier 4,609 4,520 4,513 4,560 4,585 ‐89 ‐7 47 25 ‐1.9% ‐0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 23 17 19

South Sanpete 3,140 3,157 3,221 3,263 3,298 17 64 42 35 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 25 19 15

South Summit 1,510 1,537 1,574 1,650 1,649 27 37 76 ‐1 1.8% 2.4% 4.8% ‐0.1% 32 15 3

Tintic 259 258 244 239 236 ‐1 ‐14 ‐5 ‐3 ‐0.4% ‐5.4% ‐2.0% ‐1.3% 41 28 36

Tooele 13,873 13,988 14,332 16,154 16,627 115 344 1,822 473 0.8% 2.5% 12.7% 2.9% 12 2 1

Uintah 7,912 7,287 7,034 6,986 7,032 ‐625 ‐253 ‐48 46 ‐7.9% ‐3.5% ‐0.7% 0.7% 17 33 30

Wasatch 5,959 6,286 6,605 6,826 7,063 327 319 221 237 5.5% 5.1% 3.3% 3.5% 18 10 4

Washington 27,118 28,167 29,355 30,015 30,653 1,049 1,188 660 638 3.9% 4.2% 2.2% 2.1% 9 6 7

Wayne 482 469 450 447 446 ‐13 ‐19 ‐3 ‐1 ‐2.7% ‐4.1% ‐0.7% ‐0.3% 39 25 29

Weber 31,188 31,184 31,445 31,957 31,836 ‐4 261 512 ‐121 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% ‐0.4% 8 7 12

Charter Schools 61,464 67,509 71,494 75,566 79,806 6,045 3,985 4,072 4,240 9.8% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 2 1 2

State of Utah 622,182 633,896 644,476 652,347 660,028 11,714 10,580 7,871 7,681 1.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2%

Source: Utah State Board of Education, Data and Statistics

Total Annual Change Percent Change FY 2018 Rank

93

Table 13.3

Utah Public Education Enrollment by Race and Ethnicity

10/1/17 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

State of Utah 652,758 9,267 1.4% 6,756 1.0% 10,914 1.7% 111,017 17.0% 10,270 1.6% 17,536 2.7% 486,998 74.6%

Alpine 79,254 568 0.7% 231 0.3% 638 0.8% 9,055 11.4% 899 1.1% 2,950 3.7% 64,913 81.9%Beaver 1,540 2 0.1% 9 0.6% 6 0.4% 234 15.2% 13 0.8% 15 1.0% 1,261 81.9%Box Elder 11,671 55 0.5% 68 0.6% 68 0.6% 1,267 10.9% 49 0.4% 168 1.4% 9,996 85.6%Cache 17,895 122 0.7% 90 0.5% 120 0.7% 1,674 9.4% 96 0.5% 288 1.6% 15,505 86.6%Canyons 33,913 529 1.6% 143 0.4% 753 2.2% 5,474 16.1% 420 1.2% 1,591 4.7% 25,003 73.7%Carbon 3,364 12 0.4% 28 0.8% 10 0.3% 451 13.4% 6 0.2% 29 0.9% 2,828 84.1%Daggett 163 0 0.0% 2 1.2% 0 0.0% 7 4.3% 0 0.0% 4 2.5% 150 92.0%Davis 71,908 853 1.2% 262 0.4% 849 1.2% 7,230 10.1% 890 1.2% 1,818 2.5% 60,006 83.4%Duchesne 5,103 20 0.4% 300 5.9% 10 0.2% 329 6.4% 14 0.3% 159 3.1% 4,271 83.7%Emery 2,184 7 0.3% 6 0.3% 2 0.1% 178 8.2% 1 0.0% 14 0.6% 1,976 90.5%Garfield 909 3 0.3% 22 2.4% 4 0.4% 71 7.8% 1 0.1% 8 0.9% 800 88.0%Grand 1,451 7 0.5% 84 5.8% 9 0.6% 258 17.8% 3 0.2% 11 0.8% 1,079 74.4%Granite 66,024 2,490 3.8% 922 1.4% 2,935 4.4% 22,514 34.1% 2,858 4.3% 683 1.0% 33,622 50.9%Iron 9,169 49 0.5% 235 2.6% 55 0.6% 881 9.6% 53 0.6% 212 2.3% 7,684 83.8%Jordan 53,519 519 1.0% 164 0.3% 802 1.5% 7,774 14.5% 918 1.7% 2,067 3.9% 41,275 77.1%Juab 2,510 10 0.4% 7 0.3% 6 0.2% 101 4.0% 7 0.3% 43 1.7% 2,336 93.1%Kane 1,250 3 0.2% 18 1.4% 8 0.6% 63 5.0% 6 0.5% 20 1.6% 1,132 90.6%Logan 5,555 123 2.2% 68 1.2% 203 3.7% 1,628 29.3% 62 1.1% 108 1.9% 3,363 60.5%Millard 2,884 2 0.1% 24 0.8% 27 0.9% 473 16.4% 1 0.0% 63 2.2% 2,294 79.5%Morgan 3,069 16 0.5% 7 0.2% 4 0.1% 94 3.1% 12 0.4% 34 1.1% 2,902 94.6%Murray 6,416 214 3.3% 44 0.7% 124 1.9% 1,207 18.8% 63 1.0% 319 5.0% 4,445 69.3%Nebo 32,809 205 0.6% 109 0.3% 137 0.4% 3,865 11.8% 260 0.8% 608 1.9% 27,625 84.2%North Sanpete 2,438 16 0.7% 18 0.7% 2 0.1% 350 14.4% 5 0.2% 53 2.2% 1,994 81.8%North Summit 1,048 1 0.1% 6 0.6% 0 0.0% 146 13.9% 2 0.2% 14 1.3% 879 83.9%Ogden 11,736 227 1.9% 93 0.8% 72 0.6% 6,016 51.3% 58 0.5% 303 2.6% 4,967 42.3%Park City 4,816 28 0.6% 3 0.1% 87 1.8% 984 20.4% 6 0.1% 98 2.0% 3,610 75.0%Piute 274 2 0.7% 1 0.4% 0 0.0% 39 14.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 232 84.7%Provo 15,991 145 0.9% 136 0.9% 284 1.8% 3,809 23.8% 424 2.7% 456 2.9% 10,737 67.1%Rich 494 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 25 5.1% 0 0.0% 10 2.0% 459 92.9%Salt Lake 22,845 1,001 4.4% 254 1.1% 1,046 4.6% 8,710 38.1% 1,052 4.6% 943 4.1% 9,839 43.1%San Juan 2,889 6 0.2% 1,562 54.1% 5 0.2% 120 4.2% 3 0.1% 55 1.9% 1,138 39.4%Sevier 4,560 31 0.7% 72 1.6% 15 0.3% 213 4.7% 25 0.5% 0 0.0% 4,204 92.2%South Sanpete 3,263 27 0.8% 41 1.3% 9 0.3% 341 10.5% 20 0.6% 62 1.9% 2,763 84.7%South Summit 1,650 4 0.2% 8 0.5% 1 0.1% 185 11.2% 2 0.1% 10 0.6% 1,440 87.3%Tintic 239 1 0.4% 1 0.4% 1 0.4% 16 6.7% 0 0.0% 5 2.1% 215 90.0%Tooele 16,154 160 1.0% 107 0.7% 81 0.5% 2,074 12.8% 161 1.0% 216 1.3% 13,355 82.7%Uintah 6,986 26 0.4% 577 8.3% 31 0.4% 671 9.6% 21 0.3% 142 2.0% 5,518 79.0%Wasatch 6,826 31 0.5% 8 0.1% 38 0.6% 1,319 19.3% 13 0.2% 114 1.7% 5,303 77.7%Washington 30,018 281 0.9% 505 1.7% 216 0.7% 3,951 13.2% 557 1.9% 534 1.8% 23,974 79.9%Wayne 447 0 0.0% 4 0.9% 4 0.9% 31 6.9% 3 0.7% 6 1.3% 399 89.3%Weber 31,957 294 0.9% 123 0.4% 286 0.9% 3,949 12.4% 208 0.7% 870 2.7% 26,227 82.1%Charter Schools 75,567 1,177 1.6% 394 0.5% 1,966 2.6% 13,240 17.5% 1,078 1.4% 2,433 3.2% 55,279 73.2%

Source: Utah State Board of Education, Data and Statistics

FY 2018

Enrollment WhiteTwo or More RacesPacific IslanderHispanic/LatinoAsianAmerican Indian

African American

or Black

94

Table 13.4

FY 2017 Statewide Selected Data

FY17 Class FY17 FY17Per Pupil of 2017 Pupil‐ Percent ofCurrent Graduation Teacher Free and Reduced

Expenditures Rate Ratio StudentsState of Utah $7,298 86% 21.8 34.0%

Alpine 6,630 39 92% 7 24.6 3 22.9% 36Beaver 9,869 13 85% 27 19.4 26 43.7% 15Box Elder 7,115 34 84% 28 23.0 9 36.7% 24Cache 7,250 30 95% 3 23.6 5 27.8% 34Canyons 7,700 26 86% 23 21.8 12 26.6% 35Carbon 9,808 14 96% 2 18.3 31 41.4% 19Daggett 19,896 1 ≥80% ‐ 10.2 42 20.1% 39Davis 6,888 37 94% 4 24.0 4 22.9% 36Duchesne 7,993 23 89% 14 20.0 21 39.2% 23Emery 11,253 10 90% 13 17.7 32 43.9% 14Garfield 11,793 8 88% 17 15.9 37 41.2% 20Grand 9,920 12 86% 21 15.9 36 49.2% 8Granite 7,566 27 75% 35 21.6 14 47.2% 11Iron 7,520 28 87% 20 21.0 17 44.4% 13Jordan 6,610 40 87% 19 22.9 10 21.3% 38Juab 7,242 32 97% 1 23.2 7 34.4% 26Kane 11,596 9 ≥95% ‐ 17.5 33 42.4% 17Logan 7,815 25 85% 24 20.3 20 55.6% 5Millard 10,950 11 90% 12 18.4 30 52.2% 7Morgan 5,764 42 91% 8 24.8 2 12.4% 42Murray 7,119 33 77% 32 22.0 11 31.1% 32Nebo 6,834 38 91% 9 23.1 8 31.6% 30No. Sanpete 8,950 19 75% 33 19.4 27 54.6% 6No. Summit 9,680 16 94% 6 18.8 29 31.5% 31Ogden 8,568 21 75% 33 19.9 22 73.9% 1Park City 11,893 7 94% 5 16.6 35 19.1% 40Piute 17,578 2 ≥90% ‐ 10.2 41 68.3% 3Provo 6,979 35 77% 31 25.2 1 43.7% 15Rich 15,091 4 ≥95% ‐ 14.2 38 40.2% 21Salt Lake 9,786 15 79% 30 19.6 24 57.6% 4San Juan 13,116 5 87% 18 17.2 34 70.3% 2Sevier 7,906 24 85% 25 21.4 15 44.8% 12So. Sanpete 9,592 17 91% 11 19.5 25 49.2% 8So. Summit 9,138 18 79% 29 19.4 28 18.0% 41Tintic 16,144 3 80‐89% ‐ 12.4 40 35.8% 25Tooele 7,253 29 88% 16 21.0 16 34.1% 27Uintah 8,075 22 86% 22 23.3 6 47.5% 10Wasatch 8,578 20 91% 10 20.5 19 31.0% 33Washington 7,249 31 89% 15 20.9 18 40.2% 21Wayne 12,588 6 ≥90% ‐ 13.9 39 42.3% 18Weber 6,970 36 85% 26 21.7 13 32.5% 28

Charter Schools 6,102 41 20%‐98% ‐ 19.8 23 32.5% 28

*Due to FERPA regulations, and to protect the privacy of student data, groups of fewer than ten students are not reported and are in “n<10.” Percentages for small groups of fewer than 40 students are obscured by showing the range within which the percentage fall would display as 40‐49%). Percentages that are close to 100% or 0% are also not reported. These instances are indicated by a ≤ or > ( Counts are obscured in both cases.

Source: Utah State Board of Education, School Finance (Expenditures)Utah State Board of Education, Child Nutrition Programs (Free & reduced students include directly certified, categorically certified, and income‐based National School Lunch Program School Meal applications based on October Survey, 2016) Utah State Board of Education, Data and Statistics (Graduation Rate, Pupil‐Teacher Ratio)

RankRankRankRank

95

Table 13.5

College Entrance Exam Scores

% of Average Average Average Average Average

Graduates English Mathematic Reading Science CompositeTested Score Score Score Score Score

United States 60 20.3 20.7 21.4 21.0 21.0

Alabama 100 18.9 18.4 19.7 19.4 19.2 46

Alaska 65 18.7 19.8 20.4 19.9 19.8 38

Arizona 62 18.6 19.8 20.1 19.8 19.7 41

Arkansas 100 18.9 19.0 19.7 19.5 19.4 44

California 31 22.5 22.7 23.1 22.2 22.8 15

Colorado 100 20.1 20.3 21.2 20.9 20.8 28

Connecticut 31 25.5 24.6 25.6 24.6 25.2 3

Deleware 18 24.1 23.4 24.8 23.6 24.1 7

District of Columbia 32 24.4 23.5 24.9 23.5 24.2 5

Florida 73 19.0 19.4 21.0 19.4 19.8 38

Georgia 55 21.0 20.9 22.0 21.3 21.4 25

Hawaii 90 17.8 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.0 48

Idaho 38 21.9 21.8 23.0 22.1 22.3 17

Ilinois 93 21.0 21.2 21.6 21.3 21.4 25

Indiana 35 22.0 22.4 23.2 22.3 22.6 16

Iowa 67 21.2 21.3 22.6 22.1 21.9 19

Kansas 73 21.1 21.3 22.3 21.7 21.7 23

Kentucky 100 19.6 19.4 20.5 20.1 20.0 37

Louisiana 100 19.4 18.8 19.8 19.6 19.5 43

Maine 8 24.2 24.0 24.8 23.7 24.3 4

Maryland 28 23.3 23.1 24.2 23.2 23.6 13

Massachusetts 29 25.4 25.3 25.9 24.7 25.4 2

Michigan 29 24.1 23.7 24.5 23.8 24.1 7

Minnesota 100 20.4 21.5 21.8 21.6 21.5 24

Mississippi 100 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.8 18.6 50

Missouri 100 19.8 19.9 20.8 20.5 20.4 31

Montana 100 19.0 20.2 21.0 20.5 20.3 33

Nebraska 84 20.9 20.9 21.9 21.5 21.4 25

Nevada 100 16.3 18.0 18.1 18.2 17.8 51

New Hampshire 18 25.4 25.1 26.0 24.9 25.5 1

New Jersey 34 23.8 23.8 24.1 23.2 23.9 10

New Mexico 66 18.6 19.4 20.4 20.0 19.7 41

New York 31 23.8 24.0 24.6 23.9 24.2 5

North Carolina 100 17.8 19.3 19.6 19.3 19.1 47

North Dakota 98 19.0 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.3 33

Ohio 75 21.2 21.6 22.5 22.0 22.0 18

Oklahoma 100 18.5 18.8 20.1 19.6 19.4 44

Oregon 40 21.2 21.5 22.4 21.7 21.8 21

Pennsylvania 23 23.4 23.4 24.2 23.3 23.7 12

Rhode Island 21 24.0 23.3 24.7 23.4 24.0 9

South Carolina 100 17.5 18.6 19.1 18.9 18.7 49

South Dakota 80 20.7 21.5 22.3 22.0 21.8 21

Tennessee 100 19.5 19.2 20.1 19.9 19.8 38

Texas 45 19.5 20.7 21.1 20.9 20.7 29

Utah 100 19.5 19.9 20.8 20.6 20.3 33

Vermont 29 23.3 23.1 24.4 23.2 23.6 13

Virginia 29 23.5 23.3 24.6 23.5 23.8 11

Washington 29 20.9 21.9 22.1 22.0 21.9 19

West Virginia 69 20.0 19.4 21.2 20.5 20.4 31

Wisconsin 100 19.7 20.4 20.6 20.9 20.5 30

Wyoming 100 19.4 19.8 20.8 20.6 20.2 36

Source: ACT (http://www.act.org)

Average ACT Scores by State: 2017

Rank

96

Table 13.6

Selected Data by State ‐ FY 2014

United States 50,312,581 $553,500,792 $11,066 ‐ 14,811,388 3.7% ‐ 16.1 ..

Alabama 744,164 6,742,829 9,036 39 178,613 3.8% 29 17.4 42Alaska 131,176 2,418,000 18,466 4 40,242 6.0% 1 16.9 40Arizona 1,111,695 8,220,539 7,457 49 255,696 3.2% 43 23.1 49Arkansas 490,917 4,778,074 9,752 32 112,683 4.2% 11 13.9 15California 6,312,161 61,050,894 9,671 33 1,986,026 3.1% 46 23.6 51Colorado 889,006 7,924,319 9,036 41 267,225 3.0% 49 17.3 41Connecticut 542,678 10,050,439 18,401 5 239,070 4.2% 12 12.9 8Delaware 134,042 1,816,383 13,793 13 42,175 4.3% 10 13.9 16District of Columbia 80,958 1,608,142 20,577 1 46,157 3.5% 37 12.3 5Florida 2,756,944 24,363,817 8,955 42 856,492 2.8% 51 15.3 28Georgia 1,744,437 15,921,673 9,236 38 394,707 4.0% 15 15.6 36Hawaii 182,384 2,316,588 12,400 16 66,122 3.5% 36 15.6 35Idaho 290,885 1,949,963 6,577 50 60,744 3.2% 44 18.6 46Illinois 2,050,239 27,289,963 13,213 15 628,783 4.3% 8 15.5 33Indiana 1,046,269 9,841,337 9,396 37 266,902 3.7% 32 18.5 45Iowa 505,311 5,354,843 10,647 27 137,734 3.9% 25 14.2 19Kansas 497,275 5,083,374 10,240 29 135,018 3.8% 30 13.2 9Kentucky 688,640 6,375,119 9,411 35 163,279 3.9% 23 16.6 39Louisiana 716,800 7,721,469 10,853 25 195,268 4.0% 20 15.5 32Maine 182,470 2,441,064 13,267 14 54,763 4.5% 7 12.2 4Maryland 874,514 12,314,446 14,217 11 322,609 3.8% 26 14.8 22Massachusetts 955,844 15,183,018 15,886 8 400,245 3.8% 27 13.3 10Michigan 1,537,922 16,493,575 10,649 26 404,864 4.1% 14 18.1 44Minnesota 857,235 9,723,759 11,427 20 268,530 3.6% 34 15.4 31Mississippi 490,917 4,071,006 8,265 47 102,378 4.0% 19 15.2 26Missouri 917,785 9,125,949 9,938 31 249,235 3.7% 33 13.6 13Montana 144,532 1,576,937 10,941 24 41,676 3.8% 28 14.1 18Nebraska 312,635 3,654,376 11,877 18 91,083 4.0% 17 13.6 12Nevada 459,189 3,738,777 8,275 46 115,355 3.2% 41 21.2 47New Hampshire 184,670 2,720,225 14,601 10 69,624 3.9% 22 12.5 7New Jersey 1,400,579 25,733,921 18,780 3 514,382 5.0% 3 12.2 3New Mexico 340,365 3,189,842 9,403 36 76,593 4.2% 13 15.2 25New York 2,741,185 55,080,662 20,156 2 1,109,517 5.0% 4 13.5 11North Carolina 1,548,895 12,685,461 8,287 45 392,986 3.2% 42 15.6 34North Dakota 106,586 1,250,668 12,032 17 42,991 2.9% 50 11.8 2Ohio 1,724,810 19,714,149 11,434 19 489,251 4.0% 16 16.2 37Oklahoma 688,511 5,451,048 7,995 48 175,210 3.1% 45 16.4 38Oregon 601,318 5,647,470 9,959 30 165,817 3.4% 38 21.6 48Pennsylvania 1,743,160 24,264,551 13,824 12 613,659 4.0% 21 14.3 21Rhode Island 141,959 2,182,976 15,372 9 50,451 4.3% 9 15.0 24South Carolina 756,523 7,163,995 9,608 34 178,720 4.0% 18 15.3 29South Dakota 133,040 1,182,721 9,036 40 39,151 3.0% 48 13.8 14Tennessee 995,475 8,606,624 8,662 43 262,623 3.3% 40 15.2 27Texas 5,233,765 44,330,579 8,602 44 1,236,170 3.6% 35 15.3 30Utah 635,577 4,094,074 6,546 51 110,864 3.7% 31 23.2 50Vermont 87,311 1,602,256 18,066 6 29,533 5.4% 2 10.6 1Virginia 1,280,381 13,955,249 10,955 23 417,173 3.3% 39 14.2 20Washington 1,073,638 10,911,929 10,305 28 358,988 3.0% 47 18.0 43West Virginia 280,310 3,194,770 11,371 21 66,047 4.8% 5 14.0 17Wisconsin 871,432 9,920,370 11,345 22 255,075 3.9% 24 14.9 23Wyoming 94,067 1,466,579 15,903 7 32,888 4.5% 6 12.4 6

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education StatisticsBureau of Economic Analysis (personal income)

Enrollment

Oct. 1, 2014

Current

Expenditures

(Thousands)

Current

Expenditures Per

Pupil

RankCY 2014 Personal

Income (Millions)

Current Exp as %

of Personal

Income

RankPupil/

Teacher

Ratio

Rank

97

98

14. Higher Education

Joseph Curtin, Utah System of Higher Education Melanie Heath, Utah System of Higher Education

2017 Overview

Higher education is a driver of the state’s economy. The recent recession and recovery have hastened a long‐term change in the composition of the American workforce with the decimation of low‐skill blue collar and clerical jobs, nationwide. Ninety‐nine percent of jobs filled since December 2007 have gone to workers with at least some college education.

2015‐16 graduates of Utah’s public colleges and universities will earn a combined increase of over $470 million in wages their first year in the workforce—an average of over $23,500 more per graduate.

With four‐year tuition at Utah’s public colleges among the lowest in the country at an average of $6,483 per year, the estimated wage “return” for a bachelor’s degree is over 100% after just two years of employment after graduation.

Utah: A State of Opportunity

Board of Regents Strategic Plan 2025 In January 2016, the Board of Regents, the governing authority of Utah public higher education, adopted a strategic plan addressing key issues facing higher education in Utah. The Board set metrics for the following areas:

Affordable Participation

Timely Completion

Research & Workforce

Enrollment & Completion

Utah’s public colleges and universities saw a slight 2.8 percent bump in enrollment in Fall 2017. While college enrollments across the U.S. have declined, USHE’s 10‐year enrollment projections are expected to outpace the country with an anticipated 55,000 additional students coming to USHE campuses over the next 10 years.

Nearly 62 percent of Utahns aged 25‐64 have attended some college in pursuit of a certificate or degree. Based on 2016 Census data, 33 percent of Utahns aged

25‐64 have earned an associate degree or higher. Utahns typically take longer to complete their course of study: only two out of five USHE students complete their degree within 150 percent of time (six years for a bachelor’s, three years for an associate). About half of students graduate within 200 percent of time (eight years for a bachelor’s, four years for an associate). To increase Utah’s college completion rate, the Board of Regents passed a College Completion Resolution outlining five proven initiatives to help Utah students:

Encourage students to take 30 credits per year to graduate on time.

Offer plateau tuition at seven of the eight USHE institutions.

Help students with math attainment and encourage them to start on their math track during their first year.

Design degree‐specific graduate maps.

Work to implement reverse transfer and stackable credentials, where appropriate.

Paying for College

Tuition and Student Debt Utah ranked third‐lowest in the nation for tuition and fees for public universities ($6,360 vs $9,410 nationally), and has the lowest average student debt in the country, at $18,921 compared to $28,950 nationally. Only 54 percent of Utah college students take out student loans, the seventh‐lowest in the nation.

Fifty‐four percent of 2014‐15 USHE students received some form of gift aid. Full‐time students (30 or more credit hours attempted) received, on average, grants awards of $5,660 per student; 33.3 percent of students who enrolled full‐time and received gift aid had all of their tuition and fees covered.

FAFSA Completion In 2016‐17, 55 percent of eligible Utah high school graduates did not complete the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), the highest among all

99

states. It is estimated that $36 million in Pell grants was left on the table in 2016‐17 because of this. Last year, Utah joined the FAFSA Collective Impact Initiative and hosted over 70 FAFSA Completion Open House events to help boost Utah’s numbers.

Utah Educational Savings Plan (UESP) In 2017, Utah’s nonprofit 529 college savings plan received Morningstar’s highest “Gold” rating for the seventh year in a row. UESP is not only the fastest growing college savings plan in the nation, it’s the only plan that has received such consistently high marks from Morningstar.

Funding Higher Education

A combination of relatively low costs and low tuition rates make USHE institutions among the most efficient and affordable in the country. Nationally, USHE institutions rank 45th in overall educational revenues per FTE. USHE received an overall 6.2 percent tax fund

budget increase last year.

College Preparation

High School Feedback Reports USHE created these reports to show how Utah’s high school graduates are making the transition from high school to higher education. Some key takeaways include:

41 percent of Utah high school graduates attended college within one year of graduating high school.

77 percent have completed or started on their math track by the end of their first year of college.

Only 76 percent of low‐income students qualified for federal Pell grants, most likely due to not filling out the FAFSA.

Only 28 percent took at least 30 credits during their first year in college.

Concurrent Enrollment Concurrent enrollment provides an opportunity for Utah high school juniors and seniors to earn both high school and college credit at a USHE institution. In 2015‐16, more than one‐third of all high school juniors and seniors in Utah participated in concurrent enrollment, saving these students an estimated $41 million in future tuition expenses.

StepUp Utah Scholars StepUp Utah Scholars is a college‐readiness program that helps students understand why college is important and what they can do in junior high and high school to best prepare. In 2016‐17, over 97 junior high schools were reached by 753 presentations given by volunteers.

Regents’ Scholarship The Regents’ Scholarship was created in 2008 and is funded by the Utah Legislature to help encourage Utah high school students to prepare for college, both academically and financially, by taking a core course of study during grades 9‐12, and saving for college. The Scholarship continues to see increased growth, with a 16 percent increase in awards from last year (to 3,801 students).

USHE Counselor Conference For the eighth consecutive year, USHE hosted its statewide conference for K‐12 school administrators and counselors. Over 650 attended.

Utah College Application Week (UCAW) UCAW gives every high school senior in participating schools the opportunity to apply to college during the school day, with a particular focus on first‐generation and low‐income students. Nearly 20,000 students from 117 schools participated in 2016, with students submitting over 25,365 applications. Eighty‐six percent of students said UCAW increased their interest in going to college after high school graduation.

Industry and the Workforce

Increased Wages of USHE Graduates USHE’s 2015‐16 graduates generated an estimated $470 million in additional revenues to Utah in 2017, with 76 percent coming from those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. With increased wages comes increased spending and saving capacity that will generate an estimated additional $16 billion to Utah’s economy over the next 30 years due to their higher educational attainment.

Career & Technical Education (CTE) USHE provided over 11,240,576 membership hours in technical education last year, and works closely with business and industry leaders to develop and deliver relevant programs tailored to local workforce

100

development needs. Eighty‐nine new certificates were developed as a result of direct collaboration with business and industry.

101

Figure 14.1Utah System of Higher Education Enrollment Fall Third Week Headcount

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,0001980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

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1989

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1991

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1997

1998

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2001

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Source: USHE Annual Data Books for Fall Third Week Enrollment

Figure 14.2USHE Education and General Revenue Trends

0%

10%

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30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

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2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17

State Tax Appropriation Tuition and Fees Other Revenue

Source: USHE Annual Data Book Tab G‐ Financial , Table 1 Revenue Trends

102

Figure 14.3Median Wages, Poverty, and Unemployment by Education

Level

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey

$20,895

$27,917$34,015

$47,164

$70,02617.9%

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Less than High SchoolGraduate

High School Graduate Some College/AssociateDegree

Bachelors Degree Graduate or ProfessionalDegree

Median Wages Poverty Unemployment

Figure 14.4Percentage of Individuals Ages 25 and Older Living in Households

Participating in Public Assistance by Education Level: 2015

Source: The College Board, Education Pays 2016, pg. 35. ‐ Figure 2.17; https://trends.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/education‐pays‐2016‐full‐report.pdf

47%

22%

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40%

45%

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Medicaid School Lunch Food Stamps

Not a High School Graduate High School Graduate Some College, No Degree

Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher

103

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015, Table 1.

8%

16%

27%

39%

Less than a High SchoolDiploma

High School Diploma Some College or AssociateDegree

Bachelor's Degree andHigher

Figure 14.5Percentage Volunteering by Educational

Attainment (age 25 & over)

Source: SHEOO Finance Survey 2016 ‐ Constant Dollars

$7,116 $6,748

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Figure 14.6Education Appropriations Per FTE Student FY 2016

104

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Figure 14.7Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with an Associates Degree or Higher

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015 American Community Survey

105

Table 14.1

Utah System of Higher Education and State of Utah Population

Fall Annual Percent Estimate Annual Percent Enrollment/Enrollment Change Change State Pop.3 Change Change Population

1976 55,586 1,272,050 4.4%1977 56,838 1,252 2.3% 1,315,950 43,900 3.5% 4.3%1978 56,588 ‐250 ‐0.4% 1,363,750 47,800 3.6% 4.1%1979 57,641 1,053 1.9% 1,415,950 52,200 3.8% 4.1%1980 61,115 3,474 6.0% 1,474,000 58,050 4.1% 4.1%1981 63,090 1,975 3.2% 1,515,000 41,000 2.8% 4.2%1982 67,056 3,966 6.3% 1,558,000 43,000 2.8% 4.3%1983 69,579 2,523 3.8% 1,595,000 37,000 2.4% 4.4%1984 69,212 ‐367 ‐0.5% 1,622,000 27,000 1.7% 4.3%1985 70,615 1,403 2.0% 1,643,000 21,000 1.3% 4.3%1986 72,674 2,059 2.9% 1,663,000 20,000 1.2% 4.4%1987 73,088 414 0.6% 1,678,000 15,000 0.9% 4.4%1988 74,929 1,841 2.5% 1,690,000 12,000 0.7% 4.4%1989 74,884 ‐45 ‐0.1% 1,706,000 16,000 0.9% 4.4%1990 80,430 5,546 7.4% 1,729,227 23,227 1.4% 4.7%1991 86,843 6,413 8.0% 1,780,870 51,643 3.0% 4.9%1992 94,923 8,080 9.3% 1,838,149 57,279 3.2% 5.2%1993 99,163 4,240 4.5% 1,889,393 51,244 2.8% 5.2%1994 103,633 4,470 4.5% 1,946,721 57,328 3.0% 5.3%1995 110,594 6,961 6.7% 1,995,228 48,507 2.5% 5.5%1996 112,666 2,072 1.9% 2,042,893 47,665 2.4% 5.5%1997 116,047 3,381 3.0% 2,099,409 56,516 2.8% 5.5%1998 121,053 5,006 4.3% 2,141,632 42,223 2.0% 5.7%1999 113,704 ‐7,349 ‐6.1% 2,193,014 51,382 2.4% 5.2%2000 122,417 8,713 7.7% 2,246,467 53,539 2.4% 5.4%2001 126,377 3,960 3.2% 2,290,632 44,165 2.0% 5.5%2002 134,939 8,562 6.8% 2,331,826 41,194 1.8% 5.8%2003 138,625 3,686 2.7% 2,372,457 40,631 1.7% 5.8%2004 140,933 2,308 1.7% 2,430,224 57,767 2.4% 5.8%2005 144,937 4,004 2.8% 2,505,844 75,620 3.1% 5.8%2006 144,302 ‐635 ‐0.4% 2,576,228 70,384 2.8% 5.6%2007 140,397 ‐3,905 ‐2.7% 2,636,077 59,849 2.3% 5.3%2008 152,228 11,831 8.4% 2,691,122 55,045 2.1% 5.7%2009 164,860 12,632 8.3% 2,731,558 40,437 1.5% 6.0%2010 171,178 6,318 3.8% 2,774,663 43,104 1.6% 6.2%2011 174,013 2,835 1.7% 2,813,923 39,260 1.4% 6.2%2012 171,291 ‐2,722 ‐1.6% 2,852,589 38,666 1.4% 6.0%2013 167,594 ‐3,697 ‐2.2% 2,855,287 2,698 0.1% 5.9%2014 167,317 ‐277 ‐0.2% 2,900,872 45,585 1.6% 5.8%2015 170,770 3,453 2.1% 2,996,755 95,883 3.3% 5.7%2016 175,165 4,395 2.6% 3,061,160 64,405 2.1% 5.7%2017 180,034 4,869 2.8% 3,130,136 68,976 2.3% 5.8%

Source: Utah System of Higher Education. Common Data Committee

Provisional 50 ‐Year Demographic and Economic Projections for the Sate of Utah, 2015‐2065". Prior Data was obtained from the American Communities Survey

2015 ‐ 2017 Data from Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute ‐ Oct. 2016 "The Beehive Shape:

Year

106

Table 14.2

Utah System of Higher Education Enrollment by County

Fall Fall Fall Fall2014 2015 2016 2017

Beaver 278 339 302 318 61 ‐37 16 21.9% ‐10.9% 5.3% 25 25 0

Box Elder 1,964 1,934 1,769 1,704 ‐30 ‐165 ‐65 ‐1.5% ‐8.5% ‐3.7% 13 12 ‐1

Cache 5,332 5,354 4,666 4,336 22 ‐688 ‐330 0.4% ‐12.9% ‐7.1% 9 9 0

Carbon 863 773 665 581 ‐90 ‐108 ‐84 ‐10.4% ‐14.0% ‐12.6% 18 17 ‐1

Daggett 28 38 27 28 10 ‐11 1 35.7% ‐28.9% 3.7% 32 32 0

Davis 17,295 17,213 18,314 18,825 ‐82 1,101 511 ‐0.5% 6.4% 2.8% 4 4 0

Duchesne 477 489 463 413 12 ‐26 ‐50 2.5% ‐5.3% ‐10.8% 23 23 0

Emery 487 461 359 332 ‐26 ‐102 ‐27 ‐5.3% ‐22.1% ‐7.5% 24 24 0

Garfield 227 222 223 211 ‐5 1 ‐12 ‐2.2% 0.5% ‐5.4% 27 27 0

Grand 267 222 212 195 ‐45 ‐10 ‐17 ‐16.9% ‐4.5% ‐8.0% 28 28 0

Iron 2,495 2,467 2,736 2,617 ‐28 269 ‐119 ‐1.1% 10.9% ‐4.3% 10 10 0

Juab 530 539 539 544 9 0 5 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 20 20 0

Kane 223 231 265 275 8 34 10 3.6% 14.7% 3.8% 26 26 0

Millard 703 715 621 662 12 ‐94 41 1.7% ‐13.1% 6.6% 17 18 1

Morgan 548 603 582 569 55 ‐21 ‐13 10.0% ‐3.5% ‐2.2% 19 19 0

Piute 85 84 64 60 ‐1 ‐20 ‐4 ‐1.2% ‐23.8% ‐6.3% 31 31 0

Rich 120 110 97 98 ‐10 ‐13 1 ‐8.3% ‐11.8% 1.0% 30 30 0

Salt Lake 46,834 46,391 47,805 48,680 ‐443 1,414 875 ‐0.9% 3.0% 1.8% 1 1 0

San Juan 551 536 496 472 ‐15 ‐40 ‐24 ‐2.7% ‐7.5% ‐4.8% 22 22 0

Sanpete 1,333 1,464 1,401 1,447 131 ‐63 46 9.8% ‐4.3% 3.3% 15 14 ‐1

Sevier 1,017 1,095 979 1,100 78 ‐116 121 7.7% ‐10.6% 12.4% 16 16 0

Summit 1,546 1,518 1,494 1,767 ‐28 ‐24 273 ‐1.8% ‐1.6% 18.3% 12 13 1

Tooele 2,145 2,186 2,169 2,116 41 ‐17 ‐53 1.9% ‐0.8% ‐2.4% 11 11 0

Uintah 586 590 535 527 4 ‐55 ‐8 0.7% ‐9.3% ‐1.5% 21 21 0

Utah 26,150 26,383 25,175 29,946 233 ‐1,208 4,771 0.9% ‐4.6% 19.0% 2 2 0

Wasatch 1,265 1,328 1,371 1,575 63 43 204 5.0% 3.2% 14.9% 14 15 1

Washington 6,502 6,343 6,570 6,902 ‐159 227 332 ‐2.4% 3.6% 5.1% 7 8 1

Wayne 130 145 121 108 15 ‐24 ‐13 11.5% ‐16.6% ‐10.7% 29 29 0

Weber 10,910 10,439 10,608 10,900 ‐471 169 292 ‐4.3% 1.6% 2.8% 5 6 1

Other US Locations 23,042 26,409 22,747 26,729 3,367 ‐3,662 3,982 14.6% ‐13.9% 17.5% 3 3 0

Foreign Locations 7,174 6,355 7,683 5,648 ‐819 1,328 ‐2,035 ‐11.4% 20.9% ‐26.5% 8 7 ‐1

Unknown/Unidentified 6,210 7,794 14,107 10,349 1,584 6,313 ‐3,758 25.5% 81.0% ‐26.6% 6 5 ‐1

Total 167,317 170,770 175,165 180,034 3,453 4,395 4,869 2.1% 2.6% 2.8%

Source: Utah System of Higher Education

Rank

PreviousSize Change

Percent ChangeTotal Annual Change

2014 to

2015

2015 to

2016

2016 to

2017

2014 to

2015

2015 to

2016

2016 to

2017

107

Table 14.3

Fall Semester 2017 (Third Week) Total Headcount Enrollment By County of Origin and Ethnicity

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Beaver 6 1.9% 22 6.9% 5 1.6% 0.0% 1 0.3% 265 83.3% 15 4.7% 1 0.3% 3 0.9% 318 0.2%Box Elder 9 0.5% 107 6.3% 11 0.6% 5 0.3% 16 0.9% 1,489 87.4% 43 2.5% 0.0% 24 1.4% 1,704 0.9%Cache 11 0.3% 328 7.6% 56 1.3% 13 0.3% 39 0.9% 3,487 80.4% 321 7.4% 5 0.1% 76 1.8% 4,336 2.4%

Carbon 9 1.5% 65 11.2% 4 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 480 82.6% 14 2.4% 0.0% 9 1.5% 581 0.3%Daggett 1 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27 96.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28 0.0%Davis 58 0.3% 1,538 8.2% 341 1.8% 111 0.6% 169 0.9% 15,279 81.2% 654 3.5% 31 0.2% 644 3.4% 18,825 10.5%Duchesne 10 2.4% 22 5.3% 1 0.2% 2 0.5% 0.0% 362 87.7% 12 2.9% 0.0% 4 1.0% 413 0.2%Emery 3 0.9% 10 3.0% 2 0.6% 2 0.6% 1 0.3% 302 91.0% 9 2.7% 0.0% 3 0.9% 332 0.2%Garfield 3 1.4% 8 3.8% 2 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 189 89.6% 8 3.8% 0.0% 1 0.5% 211 0.1%Grand 6 3.1% 14 7.2% 3 1.5% 1 0.5% 0.0% 159 81.5% 10 5.1% 0.0% 2 1.0% 195 0.1%Iron 43 1.6% 149 5.7% 23 0.9% 21 0.8% 15 0.6% 2,160 82.5% 189 7.2% 3 0.1% 14 0.5% 2,617 1.5%Juab 4 0.7% 15 2.8% 2 0.4% 4 0.7% 2 0.4% 507 93.2% 3 0.6% 0.0% 7 1.3% 544 0.3%Kane 2 0.7% 4 1.5% 3 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 256 93.1% 5 1.8% 0.0% 5 1.8% 275 0.2%Millard 5 0.8% 39 5.9% 2 0.3% 0.0% 3 0.5% 596 90.0% 9 1.4% 0.0% 8 1.2% 662 0.4%Morgan 2 0.4% 13 2.3% 0.0% 1 0.2% 3 0.5% 528 92.8% 15 2.6% 0.0% 7 1.2% 569 0.3%Piute 0.0% 4 6.7% 1 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 54 90.0% 1 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 60 0.0%Rich 0.0% 5 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1 1.0% 90 91.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2 2.0% 98 0.1%Salt Lake 241 0.5% 7,588 15.6% 2,260 4.6% 525 1.1% 891 1.8% 34,420 70.7% 981 2.0% 89 0.2% 1,685 3.5% 48,680 27.0%San Juan 172 36.4% 18 3.8% 2 0.4% 0.0% 3 0.6% 254 53.8% 12 2.5% 0.0% 11 2.3% 472 0.3%Sanpete 12 0.8% 109 7.5% 8 0.6% 9 0.6% 9 0.6% 1,252 86.5% 29 2.0% 11 0.8% 8 0.6% 1,447 0.8%Sevier 30 2.7% 43 3.9% 3 0.3% 6 0.5% 5 0.5% 992 90.2% 16 1.5% 1 0.1% 4 0.4% 1,100 0.6%Summitt 3 0.2% 187 10.6% 15 0.8% 1 0.1% 14 0.8% 1,453 82.2% 36 2.0% 0.0% 58 3.3% 1,767 1.0%Tooele 12 0.6% 218 10.3% 15 0.7% 8 0.4% 17 0.8% 1,740 82.2% 40 1.9% 1 0.0% 65 3.1% 2,116 1.2%Unitah 30 5.7% 28 5.3% 1 0.2% 1 0.2% 0.0% 449 85.2% 3 0.6% 0.0% 15 2.8% 527 0.3%Utah 163 0.5% 3,384 11.3% 432 1.4% 258 0.9% 209 0.7% 23,998 80.1% 522 1.7% 78 0.3% 902 3.0% 29,946 16.6%Wasach 8 0.5% 163 10.3% 21 1.3% 0.0% 9 0.6% 1,316 83.6% 24 1.5% 2 0.1% 32 2.0% 1,575 0.9%Washington 60 0.9% 646 9.4% 75 1.1% 75 1.1% 49 0.7% 5,666 82.1% 155 2.2% 17 0.2% 159 2.3% 6,902 3.8%Wayne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1 0.9% 100 92.6% 4 3.7% 1 0.9% 2 1.9% 108 0.1%Weber 46 0.4% 1,548 14.2% 165 1.5% 35 0.3% 112 1.0% 8,163 74.9% 468 4.3% 34 0.3% 329 3.0% 10,900 6.1%Other US Locations 388 1.5% 2,830 10.6% 715 2.7% 258 1.0% 829 3.1% 19,004 71.1% 1,507 5.6% 148 0.6% 1,050 3.9% 26,729 14.8%Foreign Locations 3 0.1% 198 3.5% 174 3.1% 15 0.3% 45 0.8% 247 4.4% 183 3.2% 4,752 84.1% 31 0.5% 5,648 3.1%Unknown/Unidentified 166 1.6% 584 5.6% 117 1.1% 33 0.3% 54 0.5% 8,594 83.0% 561 5.4% 52 0.5% 188 1.8% 10,349 5.7%

Total 1,506 0.8% 19,887 11.0% 4,459 2.5% 1,384 0.8% 2,497 1.4% 133,878 74.4% 5,849 3.2% 5,226 2.9% 5,348 3.0% 180,034 100.0%

Note: Students who were listed with both an race/ethnicity code and as non‐resident aliens are reported as non‐resident aliens.


Non Resident Alien Multiple USHEIndian or Alaskan

NativeHispanic Origin Asian Pacific Islander

Black/African

AmericanWhite Unknown

108

Table 14.4

Degrees and Awards by Race/Ethnicity at Public Institutions in Utah: Academic Year 2016‐2017

Total

Degrees

Awarded

White, Non‐

Hispanic

Black, Non‐

Hispanic

American

Indian or

Alaskan

Native

AsianPacific

IslanderHispanic Multiple

Non‐

resident

Alien

Race/

Ethnicity

Unknown

University of Utah 8,554 5,872 93 32 413 25 742 313 749 315Utah State University 6,446 5,240 46 78 75 23 311 108 228 337Weber State University 5,191 4,098 64 26 94 16 135 121 116 521Southern Utah University 2,177 1,790 18 20 26 16 102 67 138Snow College 1,020 913 7 9 10 14 33 22 12Dixie State University 1,935 1,596 29 15 20 154 37 47 37Utah Valley State College 5,024 4,081 34 22 62 33 414 114 138 126Salt Lake Community College 6,354 4,610 127 52 260 39 899 152 103 112

Total Public 36,701 28,200 418 254 960 166 2,790 845 1,470 1,598

Percent of Total 76.8% 1.1% 0.7% 2.6% 0.5% 7.6% 2.3% 4.0% 4.4%

Note: Does not include UCAT Data. Institutions are sorted by the type of institution and the year they were founded.

Source: USHE Graduation Table

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Table 14.5

2016‐2017 Full Cost Study Summary (Appropriated Funds Only)

Direct Full E & G FTE Student/ Direct Cost Full CostCost of Cost of Students Faculty of Instruction of Instruction

Institution Instruction Instruction 2016‐17 Ratio per FTE per FTE

University of Utah1 1850 $263,138,543 $416,588,979 28,244 13.5 $9,316 $14,749Utah State University 1888 159,378,658 261,195,308 21,443 20.6 $7,433 $12,181Weber State University 1889 70,334,035 134,370,619 14,187 17.1 $4,957 $9,471Southern Utah University 1897 29,273,205 68,668,702 7,254 20.4 $4,035 $9,466

Snow College2 1888 14,434,995 32,962,447 3,620 18.7 $3,988 $9,106Dixie State University 1911 24,243,928 55,108,440 6,338 15.5 $3,825 $8,695Utah Valley University 1941 102,040,783 229,171,876 22,275 20.1 $4,581 $10,289

Salt Lake Community College3 1947 66,227,815 136,477,276 15,084 18.2 $4,391 $9,048

Total 729,071,962 1,334,543,647 118,445 17.3 $6,155 $11,267

Note: FTE = Full‐Time Equivalent. Institutions are sorted by the type of institution and the year they were founded.1 Does not include the School of Medicine and the Regional Dental Education Program2 Does not include Applied Technology Education3 Does not include the School of Applied Technology


Founded

110

Table 14.6

USHE Summary of Tuition and Fees by Institution

2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18

University of UtahResident $2,895 $3,043 $3,325 $3,646 $4,000 $4,298 $4,663 $4,987 $5,287 $5,746 $6,274 $6,763 $7,139 $7,457 $7,876 $8,197 $8,518 $8,824Nonresident 8,828 9,299 10,182 11,292 $12,410 $13,370 $14,593 $15,662 $16,600 $18,136 $19,841 $21,388 $22,642 $24,019 $25,208 $26,022 $27,039 $28,067

Utah State UniversityResident 2,401 2,590 2,834 3,071 $3,247 $3,615 $3,949 $4,199 $4,274 $4,828 $5,150 $5,563 $5,931 $6,185 $6,383 $6,664 $6,866 $7,175Nonresident 7,279 7,897 8,199 8,946 $9,533 $10,431 $11,449 $12,224 $12,725 $13,802 $14,797 $16,078 $17,077 $17,888 $18,490 $19,133 $19,772 $20,727

Utah State University ‐ EasternResident 1,476 1,529 1,630 1,740 $1,861 $1,980 $2,091 $2,161 $2,242 $2,470 $2,670 $2,922 $3,070 $3,221 $3,373 $3,490 $3,595 $3,750Nonresident 5,097 5,353 5,762 6,228 $6,666 $7,120 $7,670 $7,964 $4,142 $4,540 $4,940 $5,394 $5,691 $5,938 $6,275 $6,480 $6,689 $6,999

Weber State UniversityResident 2,106 2,252 2,427 2,632 $2,876 $3,165 $3,432 $3,664 $3,854 $4,088 $4,311 $4,547 $4,761 $4,990 $5,183 $5,339 $5,523 $5,712Nonresident 6,283 6,718 7,295 7,958 $8,736 $9,599 $10,415 $11,135 $11,161 $11,555 $11,901 $12,258 $12,858 $13,311 $13,837 $14,252 $14,749 $15,260

Southern Utah UniversityResident 2,067 2,194 2,350 2,794 $3,054 $3,358 $3,565 $3,796 $4,028 $4,269 $4,736 $5,198 $5,576 $5,924 $6,138 $6,300 $6,530 $6,676Nonresident 6,543 6,776 7,344 8,158 $9,008 $9,877 $10,603 $11,327 $12,082 $12,847 $14,386 $15,910 $16,984 $17,902 $18,596 $19,132 $19,810 $20,288

Snow CollegeResident 1,354 1,414 1,523 1,670 $1,794 $1,996 $2,164 $2,262 $2,348 $2,542 $2,746 $2,910 $3,086 $3,220 $3,388 $3,484 $3,592 $3,692Nonresident 5,601 5,884 5,742 6,372 $6,556 $7,210 $7,498 $7,889 $8,228 $8,238 $8,984 $9,586 $10,230 $10,722 $11,342 $11,676 $12,070 $12,382

Dixie State UniversityResident 1,481 1,544 1,612 1,778 $1,886 $1,984 $2,492 $2,728 $2,893 $3,145 $3,489 $3,888 $4,089 $4,285 $4,456 $4,620 $4,840 $5,080Nonresident 5,483 5,764 6,038 6,554 $7,034 $7,390 $9,056 $9,447 $10,063 $10,897 $12,117 $13,536 $11,721 $12,307 $12,792 $13,206 $13,855 $14,548

Utah Valley UniversityResident 1,682 1,882 2,196 2,450 $2,788 $3,022 $3,308 $3,528 $3,752 $4,048 $4,288 $4,584 $4,786 $5,086 $5,270 $5,386 $5,530 $5,432Nonresident 5,262 5,922 6,802 7,630 $8,718 $9,472 $10,338 $11,029 $11,514 $11,888 $12,246 $12,940 $13,518 $14,256 $14,802 $15,202 $15,690 $16,066

Salt Lake Community CollegeResident 1,636 1,762 1,890 2,035 $2,174 $2,312 $2,404 $2,536 $2,660 $2,790 $2,932 $3,052 $3,170 $3,342 $3,468 $3,568 $3,689 $4,009Nonresident 5,131 5,450 5,800 6,277 $6,754 $7,232 $7,519 $7,958 $8,374 $8,730 $9,172 $9,604 $10,012 $10,594 $11,010 $11,020 $11,728 $12,020

Note: 1. Tuition is equal to two semesters at 15 credit hours each.2. Lower division (freshman & sophomore) rate only. Higher differential rate for upper division (junior and senior) for University of Utah.3. Higher differential rates may apply based on institution and program of study. 4. Institutions are sorted by the type of institution and the year they were founded.


111

Table 14.7

Five Year History of Degrees by Public Institutions in Utah

2004‐05 2005‐06 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14 2014‐15 2013‐14 2013‐14 2015‐16 2016‐17

University Totals

University of Utah 7,287 7,231 7,111 7,483 7,825 8,155 8,023 8,183 ‐132 ‐1.6% 8,169 8,554

Utah State University1 4,210 4,502 4,842 5,142 5,515 5,483 5,795 6,082 312 5.7% 6,231 6,446

Weber State University 3,819 3,526 4,125 4,145 4,505 4,736 4,690 5,086 ‐46 ‐1.0% 5,105 5,191

Southern Utah University 1,001 1,189 1,609 1,778 1,606 1,743 1,565 1,545 ‐178 ‐10.2% 1,736 2,177

Snow College 815 826 720 1,041 1,088 936 745 856 ‐191 ‐20.4% 968 1,020

Dixie State University 1,278 1,326 2,087 2,019 2,051 2,028 2,003 1,941 ‐25 ‐1.2% 1,919 1,935

Utah Valley University 3,308 3,153 3,739 4,188 4,559 4,611 5,242 5,082 631 13.7% 5,107 5,024

Salt Lake Community College 2,960 3,007 4,175 4,180 4,190 4,049 4,428 4,022 379 9.4% 4,587 6,354

Total Public 25,187 25,252 28,408 29,976 31,339 31,741 32,491 32,797 750 2.4% 33,822 36,701

Certificates & Awards*

University of Utah 290 307 292 302 379 369 397 222 28 7.6% 386 410

Utah State University1 5 11 63 71 82 71 205 247 134 188.7% 237 214

Weber State University 43 40 64 57 59 80 75 90 ‐5 ‐6.3% 118 110

Southern Utah University 14 18 13 20 15 19 9 21 ‐10 ‐52.6% 31 113

Snow College 122 68 67 293 281 205 44 47 ‐161 ‐78.5% 79 74

Dixie State University 338 404 875 557 437 384 344 316 ‐40 ‐10.4% 299 288

Utah Valley University 47 30 59 85 92 35 85 113 50 142.9% 178 204

Salt Lake Community College 211 178 791 767 640 564 646 640 82 14.5% 900 2,667

Total Certificates & Awards 1,117 1,113 2,224 2,152 1,985 1,727 1,805 1,696 78 4.5% 2,228 4,080

Associate's

Utah State University1 210 324 815 860 973 851 1,000 1,272 149 17.5% 1,252 1,451Weber State University 1,542 1,485 1,850 1,798 1,997 1,995 1,994 2,216 ‐1 ‐0.1% 2,245 2,361Southern Utah University 33 94 317 359 352 421 337 294 ‐84 ‐20.0% 532 641Snow College 683 758 653 748 807 731 694 801 ‐37 ‐5.1% 864 929Dixie State College 846 804 894 1,080 1,131 1,132 1,150 1,013 18 1.6% 974 923Utah Valley University 2,072 1,832 1,689 1,809 1,831 1,768 2,280 1,996 512 29.0% 1,929 1,784Salt Lake Community College 2,786 2,829 3,384 3,413 3,550 3,485 3,782 3,382 297 8.5% 3,687 3,687Total Associate's 8,624 8,561 9,602 10,067 10,641 10,383 11,237 10,974 854 8.2% 11,483 11,776

BaccalaureateUniversity of Utah 5,198 4,889 4,622 4,801 4,919 5,139 5,092 5,246 ‐47 ‐0.9% 5,167 5,214Utah State University 3,097 3,237 3,040 3,232 3,371 3,557 3,548 3,551 ‐9 ‐0.3% 3,810 3,846Weber State University 2,070 1,846 1,980 2,029 2,157 2,360 2,349 2,505 ‐11 ‐0.5% 2,488 2,458Southern Utah University 854 899 927 979 925 988 954 928 ‐34 ‐3.4% 895 1,043Snow College 7 8 25 17Dixie State College 94 118 318 382 483 512 509 612 ‐3 ‐0.6% 646 724Utah Valley University 1,189 1,291 1,980 2,276 2,612 2,739 2,825 2,915 86 3.1% 2,903 2,940Total Baccalaureate 12,502 12,280 12,867 13,699 14,467 15,295 15,284 15,765 ‐11 ‐0.1% 15,934 16,242

Master'sUniversity of Utah 1,303 1,482 1,565 1,657 1,809 1,921 1,823 1,948 ‐98 ‐5.1% 1,901 2,140Utah State University 811 849 831 862 990 895 927 904 32 3.6% 830 838Weber State University 165 155 231 261 292 301 272 275 ‐29 ‐9.6% 254 262Southern Utah University 100 178 352 420 314 315 265 302 ‐50 ‐15.9% 278 380Utah Valley University na na 11 18 24 69 52 58 ‐17 ‐24.6% 97 96Total Master's 2,379 2,664 2,990 3,218 3,429 3,501 3,339 3,487 ‐162 ‐4.6% 3,360 3,716

DoctorateUniversity of Utah 229 276 279 304 339 324 330 384 6 1.9% 331 339Utah State University 69 81 88 111 94 105 109 102 4 3.8% 94 95

Total Doctorate 298 357 367 415 433 429 439 486 10 2.3% 425 434

First Professional

University of Utah 267 277 353 419 379 402 381 383 ‐21 ‐5.2% 384 451Utah State University na na 5 6 5 4 6 6 2 50.0% 8 2

Total First Professional 267 277 358 425 384 406 387 389 ‐19 ‐4.7% 392 453

Note: Institutions are sorted by the type of institution and the year they were founded.*Includes Post‐Baccalaureate and Post‐Master's Certificates for the University of Utah and Utah State University1 Completions counts include Utah State Univeristy ‐ Eastern

Source: IPEDS Completions Surveys

112

Table 14.8

Public Institutions in Utah Total Degrees and Awards by Instructional Program 2016‐2017

Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) U of U USU WSU SUU SNOW DSU UVU SLCC USHE Total

Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, And Related Sciences 157 32 10 199

Architecture And Related Services 69 34 10 113

Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender, And Group Studies 60 31 91

Biological And Biomedical Sciences 257 166 98 71 6 47 120 19 784

Business, Management, Marketing, And Related Support Services 1,393 716 530 231 59 198 779 427 4,333

Communication, Journalism, And Related Programs 402 67 113 72 13 81 181 33 962

Communications Technologies/Technicians And Support Services 47 47

Computer And Information Sciences And Support Services 503 216 249 40 24 46 377 749 2,204

Construction Trades 5 43 4 3 36 19 110

Education 248 696 181 415 38 53 336 60 2,027

Engineering 802 415 48 25 32 1 57 54 1,434

Engineering Technologies And Engineering‐Related Fields 4 86 169 24 1 104 72 460

English Language And Literature/Letters 135 164 81 29 7 26 89 27 558

Family And Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences 191 248 60 77 13 5 594

Foreign Languages, Literatures, And Linguistics 129 31 115 13 2 6 50 9 355

Health Professions And Related Programs 1,110 547 1,618 74 102 525 302 534 4,812

History 58 55 32 15 3 31 7 201

Homeland Security, Law Enforcement, Firefighting And Related Protective Services 23 129 45 11 56 350 102 716

Legal Professions And Studies 153 11 2 20 29 215

Liberal Arts And Sciences, General Studies And Humanities 30 1,450 1,292 637 530 733 951 3,489 9,112

Mathematics And Statistics 127 53 14 2 5 3 21 15 240

Mechanic And Repair Technologies/Technicians 37 26 24 6 52 99 244

Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 197 99 22 57 106 8 489

Natural Resources And Conservation 56 83 13 6 2 160

Parks, Recreation, Leisure, And Fitness Studies 312 24 37 70 1 110 7 561

Personal And Culinary Services 6 8 41 54 109

Philosophy And Religious Studies 23 14 2 2 1 11 53

Physical Sciences 230 60 27 20 6 2 29 29 403

Precision Production 8 9 4 49 70

Psychology 408 200 62 66 14 42 352 117 1,261

Public Administration And Social Service Professions 306 76 67 36 12 52 31 580

Science Technologies/Technicians 46 36 82

Social Sciences 959 501 89 55 8 48 92 1,752

Transportation And Materials Moving 37 13 241 50 341

Visual And Performing Arts 392 130 63 85 68 50 168 73 1,029

Total degrees and awards completed 8,554 6,446 5,191 2,177 1,020 1,935 5,024 6,354 36,701

Note: 1. Source: USHE Database ‐ Academic Year 2016‐2017

2. Includes Library Science, Military Technologies, Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies, and Parks & Recreation.

3. Includes Personal Services, Vocational Home Economics, Protective Services, Construction Trades, Mechanics &

Repairers, Precision Production Trades, Transportation & Materials Moving.

113

Table 14.9

USHE Fall Semester Student and FTE Growth: 2016 ‐ 2017

USHE Institution 2016 2017 % Change 2016 2017 % Change

University of Utah 32,061 32,800 2.30% 27,439 27,984 1.98%Utah State University 28,118 27,679 ‐1.56% 21,974 22,024 0.22%Weber State University 26,809 27,949 4.25% 16,509 17,183 4.08%Southern Utah University 8,955 9,468 5.73% 7,186 7,542 4.96%Snow College 5,350 5,563 3.98% 4,034 4,085 1.28%Dixie State University 8,993 9,673 7.56% 6,852 7,382 7.74%Utah Valley University 34,978 37,282 6.59% 23,706 25,037 5.61%Salt Lake Community College 29,901 29,620 ‐0.94% 15,624 15,693 0.44%

Total 175,165 180,034 2.78% 123,325 126,930 2.92%

Note: Institutions are sorted by the type of institution and the year they were founded.Full‐time Equivalent Students are based on Budget‐related & Self‐Support enrollments (rounded)

Source: Utah System of Higher Education ‐ Third Week Data

Total Headcount Full‐Time Equivalent Students

114

15. Agriculture

Sterling C. Brown, Utah Farm Bureau Federation

2017 Overview

General In 2016, Utah had an estimated 11 million acres in farmland (8.6 million acres of pastureland), 20.9 percent of Utah’s total 52.6 million acres of land. This ranks Utah as 25th in the country in total land in farms. There were 18,100 (rank 37) agriculture operations averaging 608 acres (rank 12). Cash receipts, or the market value of agricultural commodities, totaled $1.66 billion in 2016, down nearly 16 percent from 2015’s $1.97 billion.

Top Counties Utah’s top five counties for 2016 agricultural sales were Sanpete County ($229 million), Utah County ($213 million), Millard County ($205 million), Beaver County $204 million) and Box Elder County ($175 million). Utah’s top five counties that lead the state in total number of farms were Utah (2,462), Box Elder (1,235), Uintah (1,231), Cache (1,217) and Weber (1,121). Daggett County had the fewest at 51.1

Production Nationally, Utah ranks 2nd in mink pelt production; 2nd in tart cherry production; 3rd in wool production; 5th in sheep production; 15th in safflower production; 15th in the production of hogs and pigs; 22nd in dairy cows; and 28th in beef cows. In January 2017, there were 820,000 beef cattle and calves, down from 830,000 in 2016, a one percent decrease. There were also 700,000 hogs on Utah farms in 2016, a nearly five percent year‐over increase. Sheep and lambs totaled 275,000 beginning in 2017, down from 285,000 the previous year, or nearly a four percent decrease. There were 92,000 milk cows producing 2.10 billion pounds of milk in 2016, down from 2.22 billion pounds in 2015, or a 5 percent decrease. Livestock, livestock products, and poultry made up $1.22 billion (down nearly 25 percent) in

1 2017 Utah Agriculture Statistics and Utah Department of Agriculture and Food Annual Report.

2016 or 65 percent of total sales. This significant decrease was a result of below average commodity prices leading to less inventory. Crop sales contributed $423.5 million in 2016, 35 percent of the total, down nearly six percent in value. Total agriculture sales figures do not reflect the value of commodities produced and used on Utah farms and ranches, such as hay, grain and corn fed to livestock. By incorporating this value, the overall contribution of agriculture production would increase by approximately 40 percent.

Sales and Prices Livestock and poultry are the foundation of Utah agriculture. Abundant rangelands are the foundation of livestock production supporting more than 6,000 cattle ranching families. Cattle and calve sales, which decreased 18 percent from 2015, were the leading agriculture sector in 2016 with $515 million in sales (excludes inter‐farm and in‐state sales). Around 120 dairy farms had $335 million in sales in 2016. Due to the growing global market and other countries producing increased milk products, milk prices of $15.50/cwt were down nearly 40 percent in 2016 from the 2014 high of $25.00/cwt. Pork sales totaled $141 million in 2016, a decline in value of nearly ten percent from the previous year. Falling prices for Utah’s major commodities (cattle, milk and hay) since 2014 has dramatically hurt farmers’ and ranchers’ ability to cover production costs.

Significant Issues Animal agriculture is the foundation of Utah agriculture. Cattle and sheep ranches harvest the annually renewing forage on abundant rangelands. Economically viable ranching operations require a combination of private and public lands to be

115

sustainable and economically viable. Ranchers face tremendous uncertainty with 67 percent of Utah lands under federal control. Cuts in livestock grazing rights, limitations on access to federally managed public lands and challenges to livestock water rights create uncertainty for Utah’s largest agricultural sector. Predation, led by coyotes, continues to be a problem for sheep, cattle and poultry producers, especially on or near public lands. Similarly, Utah’s population growth continues to pressure conversion of fruit, vegetable and other farmland for development. Agriculture diverts approximately 82 percent of developed water, but returns more than half back into the ecosystem. In the nation’s second most arid state, growth continues to pressure conversion of agricultural water to municipal and industrial uses.

2018 Outlook

Agriculture production and processing play a role in Utah’s diverse economy. Farms and ranches provide open space and contribute to Utahns’ quality of life and are highly valued according to Envision Utah. Ramped‐up interest in locally‐grown food is the catalyst for Community Supported Agriculture and more than 40 farmer’s markets statewide. Federal land management policies are hurting Utah’s livestock industry. Grazing cuts and uncertainty are reducing the potential for a greater economic contribution by Utah agriculture, especially for rural communities. Population growth in a state with limited water and private land continues to pressure transitioning these natural resources from food production to urban development.

116

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Feeder Cattle500‐550 pound feeder price/cwt.

HayPrice per ton

MilkPrice per cwt.

Figure 15.1Average Annual Price Received in Major Utah

Agricultural Sectors

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Figure 15.2Farmer Share of Food Spending

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

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16. Construction

James A. Wood, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

2017 Overview

The value of Utah’s permit‐authorized construction in 2017 estimated at $8.5 billion, an all‐time high in current dollars and the second highest year ever in inflation adjusted dollars. Only 2006, in the run‐up to the Great Recession, had a higher level of permit authorized construction value with a total value of $9.0 billion. The 2017 estimate includes the value of residential, and nonresidential construction and additions, alterations and repairs.

Residential construction is the largest sector in the construction industry. In 2017 the value of residential construction was $4.8 billion, 18 percent higher than in 2016. The number of residential units receiving building permits increased from 19,950 in 2016 to 23,800 in 2017, a 19 percent increase. Single‐family construction increased to 12,500 units from 10,600 units in 2016 while the number of multifamily units increased from 8,760 in 2016 to 11,000 in 2017.

Home building in 2017 continued its gradual but steady recovery from the Great Recession. It has been seven years since residential construction established the current cycle’s trough in 2010. In a typical cycle construction has fully recovered seven years after the trough but in this cycle, despite historically low interest rates, the recovery is only at about 83 percent of the pre‐recession peak—23,800 new residential units in 2017 versus 28,300 units in 2005.

While the home building recovery has been slower than expected, the number of new residential units in 2017 was well below the increase in new households as estimated by demographers at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. The estimated increase in households in Utah in 2017 is 28,000 that is 4,200 more households than housing units.

Typically the number of new housing units exceeds the increase in households by about ten percent due to vacancies and second home construction. This has been the case over the past 40 years. But in the last few years the increase in households has been greater than the increase in housing units, which explains, at

least in part, the tight housing market. A market characterized by very low apartment vacancy rates and rising rental rates as well as a limited number of “for sale” listings of existing homes. Home builders also complain that labor shortages, land availability, and municipal regulations are creating bottlenecks that are reducing the supply of new homes. These market conditions confirm that Utah is currently experiencing a housing shortage, which limits housing opportunities for both renters and homebuyers.

The most significant increase in construction activity in 2017 was in multifamily residential construction, which was up 26 percent in number of units and 28 percent in value. Total value of multifamily construction hit a historic high of $1.48 billion in 2017. Forty‐seven percent of all residential units receiving building permits in Utah were multifamily units (apartments, condominiums, and townhomes) in 2017.

The value of Utah’s permit authorized nonresidential construction in Utah in 2017 was $2.4 billion, the third highest year on record (inflation adjusted). Utah nonresidential construction sector, while down just slightly from record setting 2016, was led by office and industrial construction. Permits were issued for nearly $520 million in office construction, an all‐time record in inflation adjusted dollars. The previous record was set in 2007 with $465 million in two cities; Salt Lake City and Lehi, account for more than half of the office construction statewide. In 2017 Salt Lake City issued permits for $190 million in office construction and Lehi issued permits for $110 million.

The value of industrial construction in 2017 was $500 million, one of the highest years on record. Hospital construction, which set a record of over $500 million in construction in 2016 was down to only $114 million in 2017. Hospital projects are generally large, infrequent one‐off projects. It will likely be several years before we see another substantial increase in hospital construction.

In summary the $8.5 billion in permit authorized construction activity in 2017 includes $4.8 billion of residential construction, $2.4 billion of nonresidential

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construction and $1.3 billion of additions, alterations and repairs.

2018 Outlook

The 2018 forecast for the value of permit authorized construction in Utah is $8.3 billion, off about two percent from 2017. The value of residential construction is expected to increase by two percent to $4.9 billion due to increases in labor and material costs.

The number of residential units is forecasted to increase from 23,500 units in 2017 to 25,500 units in 2018. Most of the increase in residential construction will be concentrated in single‐family sector, where the number of units receiving building permits is projected to increase to 14,500, up sixteen percent. Multifamily permits will be nearly at 10,700 units but in terms of composition there will be a shift to more condominiums and townhomes and a modest decline in apartment construction. About 300 cabins, and manufactured homes will received building permits in2018.

The value of permit authorized nonresidential construction in 2018 is forecast to decline by 21 percent to $1.9 billion in 2018, still a level of activity well above the annual average since 2000 of $1.6 billion. In 2018 the traditional sectors of nonresidential construction—office, industrial, retail, hospitals, and churches—will continue to have solid levels of activity, benefitting from Utah’s strong job market and expanding population.

In summary the $8.3 billion in permit authorized construction activity in 2018 will include $4.9 billion of residential construction, $1.9 billion of nonresidential construction and $1.5 billion of additions, alterations and repairs.

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Figure 16.1Utah Residential Construction Activity

0

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Source: Ivory‐Boyer Construction Database. Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah.

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Residential Value Nonresidential Additions Total Value

Figure 16.2Value of Permit Authorized Construction in Utah

Source: Ivory‐Boyer Construction Database. Kem Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah.

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Table 16.1Residential and Nonresidential Construction Activity

Value of Value of Value ofSingle- Multi- Mobile Residential Nonresidential Add., Alt., TotalFamily Family Homes/ Total Construction Construction and Repairs Valuation

Year Units Units Cabins Units (millions) (millions) (millions) (millions)1970 5,962 3,108 9,070 $117.0 $87.3 $18.0 $222.31971 6,768 6,009 12,777 176.8 121.6 23.9 322.31972 8,807 8,513 17,320 256.5 99.0 31.8 387.31973 7,546 5,904 13,450 240.9 150.3 36.3 427.51974 8,284 3,217 11,501 237.9 174.2 52.3 464.41975 10,912 2,800 13,712 330.6 196.5 50.0 577.11976 13,546 5,075 18,621 507.0 216.8 49.4 773.21977 17,424 5,856 23,280 728.0 327.1 61.7 1,116.81978 15,618 5,646 21,264 734.0 338.6 70.8 1,143.41979 12,570 4,179 16,749 645.8 490.3 96.0 1,232.11980 7,760 3,141 10,901 408.3 430.0 83.7 922.01981 5,413 3,840 9,253 451.5 378.2 101.6 931.31982 4,767 2,904 7,671 347.6 440.1 175.7 963.41983 8,806 5,858 14,664 657.8 321.0 136.3 1,115.11984 7,496 11,327 18,823 786.7 535.2 172.9 1,494.81985 7,403 7,844 15,247 706.2 567.7 167.6 1,441.51986 8,512 4,932 13,444 715.5 439.9 164.1 1,319.51987 6,530 755 7,305 495.2 413.4 166.4 1,075.01988 5,297 418 5,715 413.0 272.1 161.5 846.61989 5,197 453 5,632 447.8 389.6 171.1 1,008.51990 6,099 910 7,009 579.4 422.9 243.4 1,245.71991 7,911 958 572 9,441 791.0 342.6 186.9 1,320.51992 10,375 1,722 904 13,001 1,113.6 396.9 234.8 1,745.31993 12,929 3,865 1,010 17,804 1,504.4 463.7 337.3 2,305.41994 13,947 4,646 1,154 19,747 1,730.1 772.2 341.9 2,844.21995 13,904 6,425 1,229 21,558 1,854.6 832.7 409.0 3,096.31996 15,139 7,190 1,408 23,737 2,104.5 951.8 386.3 3,442.61997 14,079 5,265 1,343 20,687 1,943.5 1,370.9 407.1 3,721.51998 14,476 5,762 1,505 21,743 2,188.7 1,148.4 461.3 3,798.41999 14,561 4,443 1,346 20,350 2,238.0 1,195.0 537.0 3,970.02000 13,463 3,629 1,062 18,154 2,140.1 1,213.0 583.3 3,936.42001 13,851 5,089 735 19,675 2,352.7 970.0 562.8 3,885.52002 14,466 4,149 926 19,941 2,491.0 897.0 393.0 3,781.02003 16,515 5,555 766 22,836 3,046.4 1,017.4 497.0 4,560.82004 17,724 5,853 716 24,293 3,552.6 1,089.9 476.0 5,118.52005 20,912 6,562 811 28,285 4,662.6 1,217.8 707.6 6,588.02006 19,888 5,658 776 26,322 4,955.5 1,588.0 865.3 7,408.82007 13,510 6,290 739 20,539 3,963.2 2,051.0 979.7 6,993.92008 5,513 4,544 546 10,603 1,877.0 1,919.1 781.2 4,577.32009 5,217 4,951 320 10,488 1,674.0 1,054.3 660.1 3,388.42010 5,936 2,890 240 9,066 1,667.0 925.1 672.0 3,264.12011 6,454 3,568 10,023 1,885.4 1,236.0 652.0 3,773.42012 7,626 3,464 156 11,246 2,196.7 1,020.2 728.9 3,945.82013 9,837 4,970 144 14,951 3,024.6 1,105.9 784.9 4,915.42014 8,690 9,823 234 18,747 3,350.9 1,478.9 1,034.3 5,864.12015 9,888 7,537 204 17,629 3,981.8 2,096.0 1,062.9 7,140.72016 10,598 8,761 584 19,943 4,053.6 2,525.9 1,622.0 8,201.52017 12,500 11,000 300 23,800 4,800.0 2,400.0 1,300.0 8,500.02018 14,500 10,700 300 25,500 4,900.0 1,900.0 1,500.0 8,300.0

Note: f = forecastResidential and Nonresidential Construction ActivitySource: Ivory-Boyer Construction Database, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, University of Utah

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Table 16.2Average Rates for 30-year Mortgages

Mortgage Mortgage Mortgage Rates Rates Rates

1968 7.03% 1984 13.87% 2000 8.06%1969 7.82% 1985 12.42% 2001 6.97%1970 8.35% 1986 10.18% 2002 6.54%1971 7.55% 1987 10.19% 2003 5.80%1972 7.38% 1988 10.33% 2004 5.84%1973 8.04% 1989 10.32% 2005 5.87%1974 9.19% 1990 10.13% 2006 6.40%1975 9.04% 1991 9.25% 2007 6.38%1976 8.86% 1992 8.40% 2008 6.10%1977 8.84% 1993 7.33% 2009 5.04%1978 9.63% 1994 8.36% 2010 4.69%1979 11.19% 1995 7.95% 2011 4.45%1980 13.77% 1996 7.81% 2012 3.66%1981 16.63% 1997 7.60% 2013 3.98%1982 16.09% 1998 6.95% 2014 4.17%1983 13.23% 1999 7.43% 2015 3.85%

2016 3.65%2017* 4.00%

Note: *through November

Source: Freddie Mac

Year Year Year

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Table 16.3Housing Price Index for Utah

Year-Over Year-OverPercent Percent Change Change

1992 110.3 8.1% 2004 218.3 5.8%1993 125.9 14.1% 2005 242.9 11.3%1994 146.5 16.4% 2006 283.8 16.8%1995 160.1 9.3% 2007 318.1 12.1%1996 172.8 7.9% 2008 303.0 -4.7%1997 179.1 3.6% 2009 270.9 -10.6%1998 185.4 3.5% 2010 255.1 -5.9%1999 190.1 2.6% 2011 239.6 -6.1%2000 194.2 2.2% 2012 256.3 7.0%2001 197.9 1.9% 2013 282.9 10.4%2002 201.2 1.7% 2014 296.6 4.8%2003 206.4 2.6% 2015 315.8 6.5%

2016 343.0 8.6%2017 375.0 9.3%

Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted, Purchase Only

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

IndexYearIndexYear

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17. Energy

Michael Vanden Berg, Utah Geological Survey

2017 Overview

Three recent events have dominated Utah’s energy scene in the past few years: 1) the partial rebound in crude oil prices after the 2015 crash due to a worldwide oversupply, 2) the continued low natural gas price, which directly affects exploration in Utah, and 3) the exponential increase in both utility‐scale and residential PV (photovoltaic) solar capacity. Utah’s crude oil price dropped from a high of about $100 per barrel in the summer of 2014 to a low of about $20 a barrel in early 2016, but has subsequently rebounded to about $45 per barrel in 2017. Following the same trend, the number of drilling rigs in Utah decreased from about 23 rigs in late 2014 down to zero rigs in early March 2016, then back to 10 rigs in late 2017. After two years of decline, crude oil production increased in 2017 by 12 percent as a result of the slightly stronger price. Natural gas prices have remained low for the past three years due to oversupply from the country’s prolific shale reservoirs. As a result, drilling for gas in Utah has virtually stopped and production has declined by 35 percent since the peak reached in 2012. Between 2015 and 2017, 826 MW of new utility‐scale solar capacity came online in Utah, more capacity than wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and biomass combined. This surge in solar also occurred in the residential sector; the total number of renewable energy tax credits filed in Utah has grown exponentially in the past eight years, from 153 in 2009 to over 7,400 in 2016, of which about 98 percent were for residential PV.

Coal production in Utah is at a 30‐year low as out‐of‐state demand, especially from Nevada and California, diminishes as coal plants convert to natural gas. Production of electricity in Utah has decreased significantly in the past three years (down 16 percent), mostly from coal‐fired (down 22 percent) and natural gas‐fired (down 28 percent) power plants, but at the same time, generation from renewable resources has more than doubled and now accounts for 13 percent of total electricity generated in the state. Consumption of petroleum

products is expected to reach record levels in 2017 as prices remain relatively low, while consumption of natural gas is expected to decrease. Electricity consumption has remained steady for the past four years in contrast to the historical three to four percent annual growth rate. This reduction in growth is partially attributed to the increase in rooftop solar installations, which offsets electric demand from power plants. Utah will continue to be a net‐exporter of energy by producing more natural gas, coal, and electricity than is used in‐state, but will remain reliant on other states and Canada to satisfy our demand for crude oil and petroleum products.

Petroleum Production. From 2003 to 2014, crude oil production in Utah experienced a substantial resurgence due to new discoveries in central Utah and increased exploration and development in the Uinta Basin―the la er fueled by drama c increases in crude oil prices over those years. Crude oil production reached 40.9 million barrels in 2014, over triple the production achieved in 2003. Following a large decline in the price of crude oil, production dropped 9.2 percent in 2015 to 37.1 million barrels and dropped an additional 18 percent in 2016 to 30.5 million barrels. However, as prices increased in 2017, crude oil production followed and is estimated to reach 34.1 million barrels. Total crude oil pipeline imports increased to 40.2 million barrels in 2016, making up for declining Utah production coupled with increases in refinery capacity, but declined to 36.2 million barrels in 2017 as Utah production increased by about four million barrels. Refinery receipts—the amount of crude oil delivered to Utah’s five refineries―reached a record high of 67 million barrels in 2017 as refineries increased their capacity by about nine percent. Estimated exports of Utah crude oil peaked in 2014 at 15 million barrels, coinciding with a peak in production. Exports are estimated to decrease to only about three million barrels in 2017.

Prices and Value. Following worldwide trends, Utah’s crude oil price began to decline in late 2014

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(from about $85 per barrel) and continued to decline through much of 2015 (down to a low of about $28 per barrel), but stabilized in 2016 at $36.91, a price not seen since 2003. During 2017, prices increased and mostly hovered in the mid‐$40 a barrel range, increasing to nearly $50 a barrel by the end of the year. This increase in price, coupled with a resultant increase in production, pushed the value of Utah’s produced crude oil to $1.5 billion in 2017, the highest price in the last three years, but only half the record price of $3.2 billion set in 2014. Following suit, Utah’s average price for regular unleaded motor gasoline and diesel also increased in 2017 to $2.40 and $2.70 per gallon, respectively.

Consumption. Utah’s refined petroleum production increased to 78 million barrels in 2017 as a result of several refinery capacity expansions. Refined petroleum product imports from Wyoming via the Pioneer pipeline decreased slightly to 16 million barrels in 2017, but with expanded capacity, Utah refineries were able to export a record 32 million barrels of petroleum products via pipeline to other states. As demand increases with a growing economy and increased population, Utah’s total petroleum product consumption is estimated to increase to a new high of 57 million barrels in 2017, the highest share being motor gasoline (50 percent), followed by diesel fuel (27 percent).

Natural Gas Production. Utah’s natural gas production peaked in 2012 at 491 billion cubic feet (Bcf), but has since retreated to 317 Bcf in 2017 as prices have softened. Dry production and actual natural gas sales also decreased to 306 and 275 Bcf, respectively. Similarly, natural gas liquids production decreased to four million barrels. Roughly nine percent of natural gas production was from coalbed methane wells, but this percentage has been decreasing as numerous new conventional wells have been drilled in the Uinta Basin, at least up until 2015, and existing coalbed methane wells have declining production rates. Several shale gas exploratory wells were drilled in Utah before the price declined in 2015, but only a few wells in the Uinta Basin have recorded minor natural gas production from a shale formation. With the current low price of natural gas,

drilling rigs in Utah are focused mostly on liquid‐rich plays.

Prices and Value. The average wellhead price for natural gas in Utah decreased 49 percent between 2014 and 2016 ($4.35 per thousand cubic feet [Mcf] to $2.24 per Mcf), but rebounded by 21 percent to $2.70 per Mcf in 2017. Fortunately for consumers, the increase in wellhead price only resulted in a 0.7 percent increase in the residential natural gas price to $9.18 per Mcf in 2017. The lower overall production of both natural gas and natural gas liquids, coupled with still low average prices, resulted in a 2017 value of natural gas production of $934 million, the lowest value since 2002.

Consumption. Estimated natural gas consumption in Utah decreased 6.2 percent in 2017 to 224 Bcf. Consumption from the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors was mostly steady, but consumption decreased 26 percent in the electric utilities sector due to lower demand for electricity coupled with increased capacity from renewable resources. Utah only consumes about 71 percent of in‐state production, making Utah a net exporter of natural gas.

Coal Production. Utah coal production is expected to decrease 1.3 percent in 2017 to 13.8 million short tons, well below the 24.5 million tons averaged in the 2000s. Declining Utah coal production started during the 2008 recession, but demand has not rebounded like other energy commodities since coal has dropped out of favor as a fuel for electric and industrial needs. Production at the three Bowie mines—Skyline, Dugout, and Sufco (these mines were recently purchased by Canyon Consolidated Resources, which is partly owned by Murray Energy, the owner of the Lila Canyon mine)—remains steady at about 10.5 million tons in 2017 and accounted for 77 percent of Utah’s total coal production. The Murray‐owned West Ridge mine shut down in late 2015 and the longwall mining machine was shifted to the Lila Canyon mine, which has since increased production to about 1.4 million tons, but has capacity to produce more if market conditions improve. The Deer Creek mine closed in early 2015, while the nearby Castle Valley mine has kept steady

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production of about one million tons per year. The Coal Hollow mine in southern Utah will produce roughly 700,000 tons in 2017 from a surface mine on private land. Bronco Energy recently re‐opened the Emery mine, cutting new portals in spring 2017. Total production for 2017 should be around 80,000 tons, but should increase to nearly one million tons in 2018. The federal coal leasing moratorium was recently lifted, but several questions remain as to the future of Utah coal mining, in particular, questions concerning foreign exports and level of domestic demand.

Prices and Value. The average mine‐mouth price for Utah coal increased 4.4 percent in 2017 to about $38 per short ton, still a relatively high price in nominal dollars but well below the inflation‐adjusted high of $99 per ton reached in 1976. Recent price increases are mostly related to mining difficulty as opposed to increased demand. The end‐use price of coal at Utah electric utilities, which includes transportation costs, remained mostly steady at $42 per ton in 2017. The value of coal produced in Utah totaled $524 million in 2017, well below the inflation‐adjusted high of $1.3 billion recorded in 1982.

Consumption. Approximately 13 million short tons of coal were consumed in Utah in 2017, 96 percent of which was burned at electric utilities. Demand for coal in Utah has declined in recent years, including a dramatic 17 percent decline between 2015 and 2016, with decreasing demand for electricity, in particular, from coal‐fired generation. Coke consumption in Utah ended in 2002 when Geneva Steel went out of business, and coal sales for industrial use (mostly cement and lime companies) has dropped to roughly 500,000 tons per year, which is less than half of peak demand of 1.3 million tons reached in 1998. In the past, Utah was a significant net exporter of coal, but out‐of‐state demand has dropped from a high of 16 million tons in 2001 down to only about 2.6 million tons in 2017. Utah’s foreign exports peaked in the mid‐1990s at about five million tons, then dropped to near zero in the mid‐2000s, before rebounding recently to about one million tons a year.

Electricity (Including Renewable Resources) Production. Electric generation in Utah decreased 3.5 percent to 36,800 gigawatthours (GWh) in 2017, the lowest level in 15 years, and a 21 percent decrease from peak generation in 2008. This large reduction in electric generation is the result of several factors including a recession‐related decrease in demand, increased energy efficiency measures, an exponential increase in residential roof‐top solar (which is not captured in the utility‐scale generation numbers), and a reduction in demand for coal‐fired generation from out‐of‐state users, particularly California. Coal‐fired electric generation once dominated Utah’s electric portfolio, providing 94 percent of electric generation in 2005. In 2017, coal accounted for only 71 percent of electric generation; significant increases in natural gas generation (16 percent) and renewable sources (12 percent) have broadened Utah’s generation portfolio. The largest change in Utah’s electricity sector is the recent exponential increase in utility‐scale PV solar capacity. Between mid‐2015 and the end of 2016, 826 MW of new utility‐scale solar capacity came online, more than wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and biomass combined. Solar now accounts for a remarkable 5.7 percent of Utah’s total electric generation.

Prices. The overall price of electricity in Utah has remained mostly steady over the past five years. Utah's 2017 average electric rate of 8.7 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) for all sectors of the economy is about 20 percent lower than the national average of 10.6 cents. This lower rate is attributed to Utah’s reliable fleet of coal‐fired power plants, which supply 71 percent of electricity generation in the state. The residential price of Utah’s electricity increased less than 1 percent in 2017 to 11.1 cents per kWh, but is still lower than the national average of 13.0 cents per kWh.

Consumption. In general, from 1980 to 2013, electricity consumption has averaged a 3.3 percent increase annually, mirroring Utah’s population rate increase (2.1 percent per year) combined with the increasing rate of consumption per capita (1.3 percent per year). However, since 2013, electricity consumption has mostly stayed steady or even decreased slightly—2017 consumption totaled about

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30,300 GWh. These steady numbers and recent declines are most likely related to energy efficiency measures as well as the dramatic increase in residential rooftop solar (as stated earlier, roof‐top solar electric generation and consumption reduces demand; the data are not captured within the consumption totals). Utah remains a net exporter of electricity, using only 82 percent of in‐state electric generation.

2018 Outlook

Production and Consumption. Utah crude oil prices bottomed out in early 2016 and have since rebounded to about $50 per barrel in late 2017. This increase and stabilization in price has translated into 10 to 12 rigs drilling for oil in Utah, up from zero rigs in March 2016. Many of these new oil wells are targeting the Green River Formation in the Uinta Basin and have been quite successful. Crude oil production rebounded from the 2016 low, increasing 12 percent in 2017, and is expected to continue its upward trend in 2018. At the same time, demand for petroleum products in Utah will continue to trend upward as the economy remains strong and prices for motor gasoline remain below $3.00 a gallon. In contrast, only very minor drilling for natural gas has taken place in the past several years, resulting in a continued decrease in gas production—with 2018 production possibly hitting a low not seen since the late 1990s. Currently, no plans exist for the construction of additional natural‐gas power plants in Utah, so consumption will continue to fluctuate depending on the severity of the heating and cooling seasons and the amount of generation at the existing peaking plants. Coal production in Utah is expected to remain in the 14‐to‐15‐million‐ton per

year range for the near future, as in‐state demand remains steady and out‐of‐state demand continues to be weak. Production could increase if new foreign export markets are established. Electricity generation could continue to decline in the next few years as more rooftop solar is installed, offsetting increases in demand related to population growth. In addition, with states like California favoring electricity from renewable resources or natural gas plants, coal‐fired generation from Utah power plants will continue to be in lower demand.

Prices. Crude oil prices remained mostly steady in 2017, fluctuating between $40 and $50 per barrel throughout the year. By the end of 2017, prices were closer to $50 and are expected to remain in the upper $40s to lower $50s throughout 2018. Questions linger about whether prices will return to the highs seen in the early 2010s, but most estimates indicate prices should remain at their current range for the foreseeable future as worldwide supply continues to adjust to increased success in exploration. The price of natural gas has remained in the mid to upper $2.00 per Mcf range for the past three years, and projections indicate the price will stay at this low level for several more years as supply greatly outpaces demand. Utah’s mine‐mouth coal price will remain relatively flat and is expected to average in the upper $30‐per‐ton range in coming years. With regard to electricity, Utah’s well‐established coal‐fired power plants, as well as a new fleet of natural‐gas plants and nearly one gigawatt of new solar capacity, will assure affordable, reliable electric power for the foreseeable future and help keep Utah’s electricity prices nearly 20 percent below the national average.

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Figure 17.1Utah's Crude Oil Production, Pipeline Imports, and Refinery

Receipts Plotted with Wellhead Price, 1980‐2017

Sources: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining; U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Figure 17.2Utah's Petroleum Product Production and Consumption Plotted with Motor Gasoline and Diesel Prices, 1980‐2017

Sources: Utah Geological Survey; U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Figure 17.3Utah's Natural Gas Production and Consumption Plotted with

Wellhead and Residential Prices, 1980‐2017

Sources: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining; Utah Tax Commission ; U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Figure 17.4Utah's Coal Production, Consumption, and Exports Plotted with Mine Mouth Price,

1980‐2017


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Figure 17.5Utah's Electricity Net Generation and Consumption Plotted

with End‐Use Residential Price,1980‐2017


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atthours

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Table 17.1

Supply, Disposition, Price, and Value of Crude Oil in Utah

Price Value

Utah Crude

Production

Colorado

Imports

Wyoming

Imports

Canadian

Imports

Utah Crude

Exports2

Refinery

Receipts

Refinery

Inputs

Refinery

Beginning

Stocks

WellheadValue of Utah

Crude Oil

$/barrel Million $1980 24,979 15,846 12,233 0 8,767 44,291 44,421 665 19.79 494.31981 24,309 14,931 11,724 0 8,088 42,876 43,007 762 34.14 829.91982 23,595 13,911 12,033 0 9,167 40,372 40,368 593 30.50 719.71983 31,045 14,696 7,283 0 9,123 43,901 43,844 632 28.12 873.01984 38,054 13,045 6,195 0 13,549 43,745 43,544 606 27.21 1,035.41985 41,080 13,107 6,827 0 15,790 45,224 45,357 695 23.98 985.11986 39,243 12,567 7,574 0 14,298 45,086 45,034 559 13.33 523.11987 35,829 13,246 7,454 0 10,875 45,654 45,668 613 17.22 617.01988 33,365 12,783 14,739 0 12,197 48,690 48,604 599 14.24 475.11989 28,504 13,861 18,380 0 12,756 47,989 47,948 626 18.63 531.01990 27,705 14,494 18,844 0 11,939 49,104 48,977 656 22.61 626.41991 25,928 14,423 20,113 0 11,817 48,647 48,852 749 19.99 518.31992 24,074 13,262 21,949 0 9,206 50,079 49,776 513 19.39 466.81993 21,826 11,575 22,279 0 7,126 48,554 48,307 645 17.48 381.51994 20,668 10,480 26,227 0 8,572 48,802 48,486 691 16.38 338.51995 19,976 9,929 24,923 60 8,246 46,641 46,634 806 17.71 353.81996 19,529 9,857 24,297 783 8,339 46,126 46,265 768 21.10 412.11997 19,593 8,565 28,162 2,858 10,686 48,492 48,477 633 18.57 363.81998 19,218 8,161 28,779 6,097 12,238 50,017 49,476 613 12.52 240.61999 16,362 7,335 28,461 8,067 7,953 52,271 50,556 704 17.69 289.42000 15,608 7,163 26,367 11,528 10,950 49,716 49,999 786 28.53 445.32001 15,271 7,208 25,100 11,364 8,633 50,310 50,143 457 24.09 367.92002 13,770 7,141 25,455 12,215 8,619 49,962 49,987 591 23.87 328.72003 13,096 6,964 24,152 9,690 5,635 48,267 48,284 547 28.88 378.22004 14,742 7,559 22,911 12,195 4,007 53,400 53,180 532 39.35 580.12005 16,675 8,214 24,372 10,991 5,739 54,513 54,544 767 53.98 900.12006 17,926 9,355 23,256 10,633 6,051 55,119 55,192 728 59.70 1,070.22007 19,534 10,708 22,012 8,769 6,258 54,764 54,952 662 62.48 1,220.52008 22,040 10,259 21,316 6,382 6,360 53,637 53,165 473 86.58 1,908.22009 22,941 7,409 23,000 5,520 6,395 52,475 52,479 519 50.22 1,152.12010 24,666 6,525 24,000 4,278 7,832 51,637 51,678 511 68.09 1,679.52011 26,276 6,997 26,050 3,894 7,318 55,900 55,656 473 82.53 2,168.62012 30,204 7,805 25,118 4,394 8,368 59,153 58,961 692 82.73 2,498.82013 35,002 7,601 23,124 3,111 11,493 57,345 56,921 669 84.79 2,967.82014 40,903 7,662 23,425 3,636 15,078 60,548 60,677 798 79.04 3,233.02015 37,133 7,048 22,211 4,963 11,805 59,549 59,568 660 40.69 1,510.92016 30,522 7,110 27,318 5,781 6,250 64,482 64,496 719 36.91 1,126.62017* 34,100 5,800 25,700 4,700 3,300 67,000 67,400 826 45.00 1,534.5

Note: Prices and values are in nominal dollars.

*Estimated

Source: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Supply1 Disposition

Thousand barrels Thousand barrels

2Exports estimated by subtracting refinery receipts from total supply; all crude oil imports are assumed to be accounted for.

1Out‐of‐state imports only include pipeline shipments; minor imports may arrive by truck, and additional minor imports may come from other states.

Year

132

Table 17.2

Supply, Disposition, and Select Prices of Petroleum Products in Utah

ExportsRefined

Product

Production

Refinery

Beginning

Stocks

Refined Product

Pipeline Imports1,2Motor

Gasoline

Jet

Fuel

Distillate

Fuel

All

OtherTotal

Pipeline Exports to

Other States1,3Motor Gasoline ‐

Regular UnleadedDiesel

Thousand barrels1980 45,340 3,202 6,427 15,534 2,637 8,401 9,411 35,983 22,136 1.27 0.951981 49,622 3,376 7,401 15,548 2,424 7,098 5,742 30,812 23,630 1.42 1.101982 44,011 2,979 8,933 15,793 2,801 6,438 5,531 30,563 22,119 1.40 1.061983 47,663 3,153 6,943 15,954 3,284 6,387 6,691 32,316 25,298 1.16 1.011984 48,493 2,842 8,215 16,151 3,413 6,107 6,430 32,101 24,121 1.14 1.001985 50,188 2,989 8,030 16,240 3,808 5,715 6,046 31,809 23,365 1.14 0.971986 51,822 2,803 8,766 17,541 4,335 6,978 5,552 34,406 20,027 0.86 0.821987 51,519 2,661 8,695 17,623 4,969 6,507 6,073 35,172 20,359 0.92 0.881988 57,354 2,306 8,926 18,148 4,977 7,060 5,786 35,971 22,031 0.95 0.891989 55,184 2,685 9,550 17,311 5,095 5,917 6,371 34,694 21,409 1.02 0.991990 57,349 3,000 10,647 16,724 5,281 7,162 5,915 35,082 21,419 1.12 1.171991 57,446 2,758 11,459 17,395 5,917 7,038 6,583 36,933 21,918 1.09 1.091992 57,786 2,746 10,534 17,905 5,607 7,286 5,726 36,524 21,087 1.10 1.071993 57,503 2,840 10,707 18,837 5,518 7,422 5,645 37,422 19,539 1.07 1.061994 59,458 3,173 11,555 19,433 5,270 7,653 5,919 38,275 21,326 1.07 1.041995 57,974 2,907 12,289 20,771 5,658 8,469 6,820 41,718 20,512 1.10 1.161996 58,852 3,253 12,692 21,170 6,303 8,746 8,409 44,628 20,512 1.21 1.291997 58,677 2,640 12,949 22,024 6,279 9,976 6,250 44,529 22,444 1.26 1.261998 62,012 2,908 12,842 22,735 6,379 10,398 5,940 45,452 22,474 1.08 1.091999 58,201 2,780 14,509 23,141 7,443 9,793 6,429 46,806 22,887 1.22 1.182000 59,125 2,426 14,568 23,895 7,701 10,629 6,954 49,179 22,811 1.48 1.532001 59,094 2,306 15,764 22,993 6,880 11,236 6,904 48,013 23,937 1.41 1.452002 59,514 2,739 16,848 24,158 6,416 11,482 5,394 47,450 24,082 1.32 1.342003 57,511 2,846 16,515 24,325 6,758 12,082 6,917 50,082 22,729 1.56 1.542004 63,071 2,599 18,486 24,744 7,137 12,264 6,289 50,434 24,475 1.82 1.872005 63,487 2,806 20,258 24,677 7,394 13,717 7,015 52,803 24,482 2.20 2.452006 64,806 2,587 18,976 25,312 7,560 17,292 6,699 56,863 23,321 2.50 2.802007 66,443 2,924 15,991 26,054 7,085 15,946 6,465 55,550 22,851 2.73 2.982008 65,178 2,513 14,854 25,051 6,509 14,138 6,415 52,113 21,619 3.22 3.792009 64,752 2,715 13,138 25,324 5,751 12,852 5,854 49,781 21,043 2.23 2.482010 62,310 2,665 12,307 24,761 5,875 12,707 6,080 49,423 21,490 2.82 3.032011 65,369 2,689 11,383 25,568 5,767 15,448 6,465 53,248 23,058 3.44 3.872012 70,456 2,860 13,316 25,228 5,572 14,776 6,499 52,075 26,695 3.59 3.982013 67,892 3,077 15,204 26,085 6,399 15,317 6,165 53,966 26,654 3.45 3.882014 70,931 2,676 13,853 26,469 5,716 15,169 5,977 53,331 27,260 3.30 3.852015 70,385 2,980 16,615 26,492 6,204 14,293 5,881 52,870 28,972 2.47 2.672016^ 75,780 2,771 16,402 28,200 6,944 14,500 6,300 55,944 30,966 2.19 2.312017* 77,800 2,652 15,600 28,700 7,000 15,300 6,400 57,400 31,800 2.40 2.70

Note: Prices are in nominal dollars.^Consumption was estimated.*Estimated1Amounts shipped by truck are unknown.2The Pioneer pipeline, originating from Sinclair, WY, is the only pipeline importing petroleum products into Utah.

Starting in 2012, the UNEV pipeline started shipping product to the Las Vegas area; however, a minor amount of product is offloaded near Cedar City (amount estimated).

Source: Utah Geological Survey, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Federal Energy Regulatory Agency

3Prior to 2012, only the Chevron Petroleum pipeline exported product to the northwest (Idaho and Washington); in 2013 this line was sold to Tesoro (now Andeavor).

Supply Consumption by Product Prices

Thousand barrels Thousand barrels $/gallon

Year

133

Table 17.3

Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Value of Natural Gas in Utah

Value

Gross

Production

Wet/Dry

Production1Actual

Sales

Natural Gas

Liquids

Production

Residential CommercialVehicle

FuelIndustrial

Electric

Utilities

Lease,

Plant, &

Pipeline

Total WellheadEnd‐Use

Residential

End‐Use

Commercial

End‐Use

Industrial

Natural

Gas

Liquids

Value of NG

and NGL

Thousand bbl $/bbl Million $1980 87,766 87,766 45,735 12,234 0 43,545 5,133 8,445 115,092 1.12 2.74 5.59 2.26 98.31981 90,936 91,191 43,497 11,635 0 42,779 3,097 1,232 102,240 1.10 3.23 5.35 2.58 100.31982 100,628 94,255 53,482 14,306 0 39,804 3,023 7,091 117,706 3.06 3.41 3.43 2.45 288.41983 96,933 63,158 49,645 13,279 0 40,246 1,259 5,756 110,185 3.40 4.26 4.32 3.15 214.71984 194,448 74,698 49,869 13,339 0 42,709 271 9,390 115,578 4.08 5.68 4.96 3.52 304.81985 210,267 83,405 53,043 14,189 0 37,448 235 10,202 115,117 3.52 4.86 4.91 3.23 293.61986 239,259 90,013 49,144 13,146 0 28,264 230 14,391 105,175 2.90 4.64 4.73 3.00 261.01987 262,084 87,158 41,536 14,811 0 23,884 263 18,493 98,987 1.88 4.97 4.98 3.20 163.91988 278,578 101,372 42,241 17,911 0 30,354 196 18,251 108,953 2.39 5.11 4.08 3.10 242.31989 278,321 120,089 45,168 16,522 0 33,963 636 17,248 113,537 1.58 5.14 4.16 3.30 189.71990 323,028 145,875 63,336 43,424 16,220 1 35,502 907 20,594 116,648 1.70 5.28 4.30 3.62 248.01991 329,464 144,817 65,288 50,572 19,276 6 43,120 5,190 14,602 132,766 1.54 5.44 4.50 3.69 223.01992 317,763 171,293 94,725 44,701 16,584 150 40,878 6,576 13,895 122,785 1.63 5.44 4.40 3.91 279.21993 338,276 212,101 132,660 5,365 51,779 22,588 188 42,300 6,305 15,039 138,199 1.86 5.13 4.06 3.67 5.35 422.21994 348,140 257,078 153,931 5,374 48,922 26,501 201 36,618 8,900 16,080 137,222 1.53 4.96 3.84 2.74 6.04 425.61995 308,695 227,611 156,299 6,360 48,975 26,825 286 42,335 8,707 29,843 156,971 1.14 4.74 3.64 2.34 4.82 289.81996 280,439 239,797 169,254 7,204 54,344 29,543 378 42,213 4,087 30,720 161,285 1.39 4.47 3.38 2.10 6.63 380.11997 272,554 239,267 177,087 6,007 58,108 31,129 273 44,162 4,079 27,554 165,305 1.85 5.13 3.92 2.55 6.94 484.11998 297,503 265,539 191,073 5,750 56,843 30,955 636 45,501 5,945 30,254 170,134 1.73 5.57 4.35 3.00 4.26 483.21999 277,494 251,207 164,050 5,574 55,474 30,361 889 40,858 6,478 26,371 160,431 1.92 5.37 4.13 2.94 6.18 516.82000 281,170 256,490 140,226 5,150 55,626 31,282 848 39,378 10,544 27,344 165,023 3.31 6.20 4.92 3.93 11.31 907.22001 300,966 272,534 219,138 4,641 55,008 30,917 474 33,584 15,141 24,175 159,299 3.54 8.09 6.78 5.29 12.47 1,022.72002 293,030 271,387 250,172 3,542 59,398 33,501 482 26,879 15,439 27,681 163,379 1.99 6.39 5.20 3.91 8.91 571.62003 287,141 264,654 224,327 3,080 54,632 30,994 589 25,200 14,484 28,226 154,125 4.12 7.33 5.95 5.04 12.18 1,127.92004 293,807 274,588 253,855 3,196 60,527 31,156 661 26,674 9,423 27,450 155,891 5.22 8.12 6.75 5.90 19.66 1,496.22005 313,491 298,408 269,062 2,310 58,044 34,447 187 25,370 12,239 29,989 160,276 7.40 9.71 8.23 7.33 32.31 2,282.92006 356,339 345,409 320,163 1,925 60,017 34,051 186 29,076 28,953 35,116 187,399 5.69 11.02 9.61 8.02 31.40 2,025.82007 385,517 373,680 350,285 1,769 60,563 34,447 209 31,578 56,438 36,464 219,699 4.14 9.44 8.03 6.35 45.16 1,626.92008 442,524 430,286 382,960 2,564 65,974 37,612 208 33,112 55,374 31,907 224,187 6.82 9.00 7.74 7.21 68.15 3,109.32009 449,675 435,673 390,475 4,817 65,184 37,024 149 29,845 49,984 32,034 214,220 3.38 8.95 7.57 5.62 38.87 1,659.82010 439,929 422,067 387,593 5,869 66,087 38,461 203 32,079 48,399 33,985 219,214 4.25 8.22 6.83 5.57 49.98 2,087.12011 462,495 442,615 406,323 7,571 70,076 40,444 290 33,633 40,138 37,646 222,227 3.92 8.44 7.05 5.50 60.99 2,196.82012 490,571 474,756 436,090 8,106 59,801 35,363 289 36,350 47,138 44,098 223,039 2.82 8.70 7.00 4.69 50.49 1,748.12013 470,365 455,454 409,704 8,132 70,491 41,398 224 38,009 49,562 47,602 247,286 3.68 8.55 7.13 5.22 54.03 2,115.42014 450,435 435,893 391,536 9,693 62,458 38,156 256 38,330 58,780 43,758 241,738 4.35 9.48 7.71 5.87 46.13 2,343.32015 417,003 401,722 359,829 7,286 58,562 35,772 326 37,189 56,449 44,315 232,613 2.60 9.72 7.97 5.93 22.84 1,212.62016 365,129 351,833 318,108 5,593 63,929 39,066 347 38,568 58,008 39,183 239,101 2.24 9.12 7.43 5.52 25.51 930.82017* 317,000 306,000 275,000 4,400 63,800 39,200 340 39,800 43,200 38,000 224,340 2.70 9.18 7.40 5.50 24.50 934.0

Note: Prices and values are in nominal dollars.*EstimatedNG = natural gas, NGL = natural gas liquids11980‐1992 = wet natural gas, which includes NG liquids; 1993‐2017 = dry natural gas.

Source: Utah Geological Survey; Utah Tax Commission; Utah Division of Oil, Gas and Mining; U.S. Energy Information Administration

Year

Production Consumption by End Use Prices

Million cubic feet Million cubic feet $/thousand cubic feet

134

Table 17.4

Supply, Disposition, Price, and Value of Coal in Utah

Distribution Value

Production ImportsTotal Distribution

of Utah Coal

Residential &

Commercial

Coke

Plants

Other

Industrial

Electric

UtilitiesTotal

To Other

U.S. States

To Canada

and/or

Overseas

Mine

Mouth

End‐Use

Electric

Utilities

Value of

Utah Coal

Thousand short tons Million $1980 13,236 1,214 13,014 237 1,473 501 4,895 7,106 6,100 776 25.63 26.11 339.21981 13,808 1,136 14,627 196 1,477 804 4,956 7,433 5,369 3,472 26.87 28.88 371.01982 16,912 798 15,397 177 845 818 4,947 6,787 6,044 2,177 29.42 32.55 497.61983 11,829 937 12,188 191 831 627 5,223 6,872 4,818 1,346 28.32 30.87 335.01984 12,259 1,539 12,074 259 1,326 608 5,712 7,905 5,651 849 29.20 30.63 358.01985 12,831 1,580 14,361 252 1,254 472 6,325 8,303 5,901 625 27.69 32.34 355.31986 14,269 1,145 13,243 191 785 380 6,756 8,112 4,790 551 27.64 32.39 394.41987 16,521 1,358 16,989 124 0 507 11,175 11,806 5,107 555 25.67 29.05 424.11988 18,164 2,191 18,204 196 1,176 597 12,544 14,513 4,973 1,044 22.85 28.96 415.01989 20,517 2,344 20,289 231 1,178 686 12,949 15,044 5,108 2,175 22.01 28.49 451.61990 22,012 2,121 21,507 267 1,231 676 13,563 15,737 5,649 1,751 21.78 26.91 479.41991 21,875 2,014 21,444 305 1,192 508 12,829 14,834 5,744 2,086 21.56 27.24 471.61992 21,015 2,672 21,052 223 1,114 525 13,857 15,719 5,741 2,260 21.83 27.59 458.81993 21,723 2,076 22,242 121 1,005 727 14,210 16,063 5,844 2,959 21.17 27.15 459.91994 24,422 2,427 23,225 105 1,007 835 14,656 16,603 6,912 2,698 20.07 25.85 490.11995 25,051 1,847 25,522 77 990 915 13,693 15,675 8,837 3,930 19.11 24.84 478.71996 27,071 1,785 28,159 94 1,047 512 13,963 15,616 9,167 5,305 18.50 24.36 500.81997 26,428 2,840 26,271 123 1,020 709 14,654 16,506 8,898 3,414 18.34 24.87 484.71998 26,600 2,543 26,764 113 971 1,304 15,094 17,482 11,698 2,535 17.83 25.66 474.31999 26,491 1,938 25,715 114 741 744 15,011 16,610 12,424 2,313 17.36 23.60 459.92000 26,920 2,535 27,955 59 984 1,166 15,164 17,373 12,553 3,073 16.93 23.16 455.82001 27,024 3,062 26,906 60 547 1,235 14,906 16,748 15,920 2,144 17.76 25.48 479.92002 25,299 2,251 24,392 198 0 592 15,644 16,434 13,170 1,142 18.20 21.84 460.42003 23,069 2,039 23,551 61 0 611 16,302 16,974 9,584 318 16.36 23.20 377.42004 21,818 3,033 23,145 214 0 795 16,606 17,615 9,294 346 16.82 24.95 367.02005 24,556 2,776 23,025 45 0 800 16,484 17,329 8,835 351 18.71 24.52 459.42006 26,131 1,925 24,520 35 0 871 16,609 17,515 9,279 55 21.77 27.34 568.92007 24,288 1,596 24,451 23 0 870 16,593 17,486 8,877 0 25.69 30.33 624.02008 24,275 2,528 25,426 0 0 852 16,927 17,779 9,219 541 26.39 30.66 640.62009 21,927 4,251 20,487 0 0 722 15,925 16,647 6,643 148 32.32 33.96 708.72010 19,406 1,775 19,220 0 0 743 15,233 15,976 5,807 634 29.15 37.68 565.72011 20,073 2,020 19,039 0 0 583 15,005 15,588 4,841 1,081 33.80 39.21 678.52012 17,155 1,708 16,140 0 0 588 14,084 14,672 3,012 1,080 34.92 42.06 599.02013 16,953 1,864 16,328 0 0 645 15,529 16,174 2,673 1,110 35.52 44.73 602.22014 17,933 1,967 17,828 0 0 614 15,062 15,676 2,543 2,869 35.59 46.03 638.22015 14,513 3,099 14,939 0 0 662 14,580 15,242 2,116 735 34.53 42.37 501.12016 13,978 1,908 14,621 0 0 575 12,001 12,576 1,891 1,049 36.40 42.19 508.82017* 13,800 2,600 12,900 0 0 500 12,200 12,700 2,600 1,000 38.00 42.00 524.4

Note: Prices and values are in nominal dollars.*Estimated

Source: Utah Geological Survey, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Thousand short tons Thousand short tons Thousand short tons $/short ton

Year

Supply Consumption by End Use Exports Prices

135

Table 17.5

Supply, Disposition, and Price of Electricity in Utah

Coal PetroleumNatural

GasHydro

Geo‐

thermalWind Solar Biomass1 Other

2 Total Residential Commercial Industrial Total

Residential

Consumption

Per Capita

Residential Commercial Industrial All Sectors

MWh/person1980 10,870 63 358 821 0 0 0 0 0 12,112 3,116 3,141 4,448 10,705 2.11 5.5 4.3 3.3 4.31981 10,869 40 230 623 0 0 0 0 0 11,762 3,436 2,999 5,451 11,886 2.27 6.0 5.0 3.7 4.71982 10,635 29 203 1,024 0 0 0 0 0 11,891 3,785 3,207 5,399 12,391 2.43 6.3 5.7 4.2 5.21983 10,921 40 69 1,394 0 0 0 0 0 12,424 3,804 3,350 6,040 13,194 2.38 6.9 6.3 4.4 5.61984 12,321 30 8 1,391 38 0 0 0 0 13,788 3,856 4,269 4,592 12,717 2.38 7.4 6.5 4.6 6.01985 14,229 40 14 1,019 110 0 0 0 0 15,412 3,985 4,596 4,458 13,039 2.43 7.8 6.9 5.0 6.41986 15,155 74 6 1,413 172 0 0 0 0 16,819 3,989 4,682 4,318 12,989 2.40 8.0 7.1 5.2 6.61987 25,221 92 13 856 164 0 0 0 0 26,346 3,980 4,863 4,555 13,398 2.37 8.0 7.1 4.9 6.51988 28,806 59 5 593 174 0 0 0 0 29,637 4,151 5,035 5,321 14,507 2.46 7.8 7.0 4.6 6.21989 29,676 48 37 562 173 0 0 0 0 30,496 4,163 5,173 5,629 14,965 2.44 7.4 6.7 4.1 5.81990 31,523 52 146 508 152 0 0 0 182 32,564 4,246 5,389 5,766 15,402 2.46 7.1 6.3 3.8 5.51991 28,888 51 550 627 186 0 0 0 204 30,506 4,460 5,571 5,876 15,907 2.50 7.1 6.1 3.9 5.51992 31,553 34 631 602 233 0 0 0 230 33,284 4,505 5,850 6,212 16,567 2.45 7.0 6.0 3.7 5.31993 32,126 37 606 860 187 0 0 0 281 34,097 4,726 5,920 6,221 16,867 2.50 6.9 6.0 3.8 5.31994 33,131 33 807 750 233 0 0 0 281 35,235 5,009 6,340 6,498 17,847 2.57 6.9 5.9 3.8 5.41995 30,611 36 791 969 168 0 0 0 261 32,836 5,041 6,462 6,957 18,460 2.53 6.9 5.9 3.7 5.31996 31,101 47 324 1,049 223 0 0 0 239 32,983 5,481 6,717 7,660 19,858 2.68 7.0 5.9 3.7 5.31997 32,544 47 328 1,344 203 0 0 0 281 34,747 5,661 7,285 7,430 20,376 2.70 6.9 5.7 3.5 5.21998 33,588 35 528 1,315 195 0 0 0 285 35,945 5,756 7,433 7,511 20,700 2.69 6.8 5.7 3.5 5.21999 34,534 31 610 1,255 186 0 0 8 191 36,815 6,236 8,075 7,568 21,879 2.84 6.3 5.3 3.4 4.92000 34,491 58 890 746 186 0 0 9 258 36,639 6,514 8,754 7,917 23,185 2.90 6.3 5.2 3.4 4.82001 33,679 58 1,446 508 186 0 0 5 4 35,887 6,693 9,113 7,411 23,217 2.92 6.7 5.6 3.5 5.22002 34,488 54 1,380 458 247 0 0 6 5 36,638 6,938 9,309 7,019 23,267 2.98 6.8 5.6 3.8 5.42003 35,979 33 1,383 421 198 0 0 5 4 38,024 7,166 9,048 7,646 23,860 3.02 6.9 5.6 3.8 5.42004 36,618 33 910 450 195 0 0 4 3 38,212 7,325 9,370 7,816 24,512 3.01 7.2 5.9 4.0 5.72005 35,970 41 1,178 784 185 0 0 4 3 38,165 7,567 9,444 7,989 25,000 3.02 7.5 6.1 4.2 5.92006 36,856 62 3,389 747 191 0 0 15 5 41,263 8,232 9,778 8,356 26,366 3.20 7.6 6.2 4.2 6.02007 37,171 39 7,424 539 164 0 0 31 5 45,373 8,752 10,275 8,759 27,785 3.32 8.2 6.5 4.5 6.42008 38,020 44 7,366 668 254 24 0 24 179 46,579 8,786 10,319 9,086 28,192 3.26 8.3 6.7 4.6 6.52009 35,526 36 6,444 835 279 160 0 48 215 43,543 8,725 10,268 8,594 27,587 3.19 8.5 7.0 4.8 6.82010 34,057 50 6,455 696 277 448 0 56 210 42,249 8,834 10,402 8,808 28,044 3.19 8.7 7.2 4.9 6.92011 33,138 54 5,256 1,230 330 573 0 58 197 40,836 8,947 10,579 9,333 28,859 3.17 9.0 7.4 5.1 7.12012 30,799 40 6,580 748 335 704 2 60 137 39,403 9,188 10,841 9,694 29,723 3.21 9.9 8.1 5.6 7.82013 34,285 26 6,606 505 319 540 2 71 163 42,517 9,402 11,062 10,010 30,474 3.24 10.4 8.3 5.9 8.22014 33,377 24 8,376 633 522 660 2 73 118 43,785 8,964 11,114 9,965 30,043 3.05 10.7 8.5 6.1 8.42015 31,656 20 8,218 769 430 626 32 85 114 41,949 9,117 11,670 9,405 30,192 3.04 10.9 8.6 6.2 8.52016 25,939 32 8,691 760 485 822 1,054 84 267 38,134 9,371 11,622 9,187 30,180 3.06 11.0 8.8 6.3 8.7

2017* 26,100 40 6,000 880 530 910 2,100 80 160 36,800 9,500 11,600 9,200 30,300 3.04 11.1 8.8 6.1 8.7

Note: Prices are in nominal dollars.*Estimated1Includes landfill gas, biogenic municipal solid waste, and other biogenic gases.2Includes nonbiogenic municipal solid waste and other manufactured and waste gases derived from fossil fuels.

Source: Utah Geological Survey, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Year

Net Generation by Fuel Type Consumption by End Use Prices by End Use

Gigawatthours Gigawatthours ¢/kilowatthour

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18. Minerals

Ken Krahulec, Utah Geological Survey Andrew Rupke, Utah Geological Survey

2017 Summary The Utah Geological Survey (UGS) projects an estimated gross production value of nonfuel mineral commodities in 2017 of $2.9 billion, an increase of about $36 million (1.2 percent) from the inflation‐adjusted value in 2016. This increase in total value is primarily a result of higher commodity prices and increased production from the Bingham Canyon mine.

The U.S. Geological Survey reports the 2016 value of Utah’s nonfuel minerals production ranks tenth nationally, accounting for 4.5 percent of the total U.S. nonfuel minerals production. The UGS’s 2017 projections were derived primarily from our annual industry production surveys, corporate quarterly reports, and discussions with mining industry professionals.

Utah’s 2017 estimated $2.9 billion total value broken‐down by mineral industry sector includes an industrial minerals value of $1.2 billion (43 percent), base metals value of $1.4 billion (48 percent), and precious metals value of $280 million (10 percent). Utah produces a long list of industrial mineral commodities including potash, salt, magnesium chloride, sand and gravel, crushed stone, Portland cement, lime, limestone, phosphate, Gilsonite, and a variety of less valuable mineral products. Utah’s base metal production includes copper, magnesium, beryllium, and molybdenum, in decreasing order of importance. Gold is Utah’s top precious metal, followed by silver.

The massive April 2013 Manefay landslide at Kennecott Utah Copper’s Bingham Canyon open‐pit copper‐gold‐molybdenum‐silver mine had a significant negative impact on Utah’s nonfuel mineral production value from 2013 to 2017, and these negative consequences are expected to linger into 2018. In early 2015, Kennecott decided to increase the safety factor for the Bingham Canyon mine and began an extensive waste stripping program on the east side of the pit in the area of the

Manefay slide to lessen the chances of additional movement. Mineral production has continued, but at a significantly reduced level. However, Kennecott has also announced plans for a long‐term pit expansion, called the south wall pushback, which is expected to extend the mine life to 2028.

Copper production from both the Lisbon Valley copper mine in San Juan County and the CS Mining copper mine in Beaver County was suspended in mid‐2016 as a result of falling copper prices. While the Lisbon Valley open pit, heap leach quickly resumed normal operations, CS Mining filed for bankruptcy. The CS open‐pit operation was subsequently acquired by Tamra Mining Company, LLC, which restarted production in late 2017. Both of these mines should benefit from the rebounding copper price moving forward.

Metal production from the Materion Natural Resources beryllium mine in Juab County and the US Magnesium, LLC magnesium operation in Tooele County remain largely unchanged. The CML iron mine west of Cedar City closed due to low iron ore prices in October 2014 and has not reopened. Uranium mining operations in southeastern Utah remained closed as a result of continued low uranium prices, which has also resulted in the loss of their byproduct vanadium production.

For most industrial mineral commodities, change in production and price is likely to be relatively insignificant for 2017, but data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that sand and gravel production, one of Utah’s most valuable industrial mineral commodities, will be down significantly for the year. After several years of substantial increases, production of sand and gravel through the 2nd quarter of 2017 shows a 28 percent decrease from the same period in 2016. This decrease probably does not reflect a future trend considering ongoing construction of the new Salt Lake City airport terminal and construction driven by increased population.

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Nonfuel mineral exploration and development

activities in Utah rebounded in 2017. Liberty Gold is

engaged in an aggressive, several years‐long drilling

campaign for gold‐silver in the Goldstrike mining

district in northwestern Washington County. This

program hopes to delineate a new open‐pit mineral

resource by early 2018. Similarly, TriMetals Mining is

defining a small, open pit gold‐silver resource in the

Gold Springs district of westernmost Iron County.

Kennecott also continues its long‐term program to

discover mineral resources in the Oquirrh Mountains

of Salt Lake and Tooele Counties. In addition to these

programs, exploration has resumed in the Tintic

district, Juab County; San Francisco district, Beaver

County; Gold Hill district, Tooele County; Henry

Mountain district, Garfield County; and Drum

district, Juab and Millard Counties. Exploration and

development in the industrial minerals sector has

been flat for the past few years, but Crystal Peak

Mineral’s Sevier Lake potash project continues to

make advances on its feasibility study and EIS.

2018 Outlook

Higher metal prices along with growing base and precious metal production from a recovering Bingham Canyon mine will likely result in an increase in the value of metals in 2018. Industrial minerals production and value is expected to be relatively stable through 2018 with no anticipated substantial swings in commodity production. In summary, the UGS estimates that the gross production value of Utah’s nonfuel mineral commodities in 2018 will be appreciably higher than 2017 totals.

138

Figure 18.1Total Value of Utah's Annual Nonfuel Production

Source: Utah Geological Survey. The value presented for 2017 is an estimate.

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Billions of 2017 Dollars

Figure 18.2Value of Utah's Annual Base Metal Production


$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


139

Figure 18.3Value of Utah's Annual Precious Metal Production


$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Millions of 2017 Dollars

Figure 18.4Value of Utah's Annual Industrial Mineral Production


$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


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19. Tourism and Travel

Jennifer Leaver, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute

2017 Overview

Utah’s tourism and travel sector experienced continued economic growth in 2017, including increased visitor spending, travel‐related jobs and wages, travel‐related state and local tax revenue, and a record number of visitors to Utah’s 14 ski resorts and five national parks. In 2017, visitors purchased more Utah hotel rooms and spent more money on arts, entertainment, recreation, restaurants, and retail than ever before.

At the time of this publication, travel‐related sales tax revenues, such as transient room, restaurant, short‐term leasing, and resort communities’ sales, were trending anywhere from six‐to‐13 percent above 2016 revenues. During the first three quarters of 2017, 25 of 29 Utah counties experienced year‐over‐year increases in their transient room tax revenue. In addition, total taxable sales in the leisure and hospitality sector increased eight percent during the first half of 2017, while gas station, grocery store, and other travel‐related retail sales increased around three percent.

During the first half of 2017, travel‐related jobs in Utah’s private leisure and hospitality sector experienced a 3.5 percent year‐over‐year increase (consistent with all other sectors) and wages had increased 10.7 percent from the prior year, outpacing all other sectors (8.1 percent).

In the spring of 2017 the Utah Office of Tourism reran their Mighty 5®/Road to Mighty® ad series, which generated increased ad awareness, ROI, and incremental (ad‐influenced) travel to the state. In fact, visitation to Utah’s national parks and places from January through October 2017 was up 14 percent compared to the same period in 2016. 1

1 National places include all Utah national monuments, recreation areas, and historic sites, except for Flaming Gorge National Recreation Area and Bears Ears National Monument.

This year, Utah’s Board of Tourism Development allocated more than $3.4 million in cooperative marketing matching funds, as well as an additional $850,000 in matching funds through its Cafeteria Co‐op Marketing program. These programs enable destination marketing organizations such as convention and visitor bureaus, county tourism offices, and nonprofit organizations to combine their marketing dollars with Utah Office of Tourism matching funds to promote a wide variety of destinations and events throughout the state.

In 2017, many of Utah’s travel‐related news headlines appertained to President Obama’s 2016 designation of Utah’s ninth national monument: Bears Ears. Obama’s creation of Bears Ears National Monument, using the authority of the 1906 Antiquities Act, ignited public lands’ debates across Utah and the nation. A little more than a month after its designation, and due to conflicting viewpoints regarding the appropriate uses of Utah’s public lands, representatives of Outdoor Retailer decided to leave Salt Lake City as their home base at the end of their contract in 2018.2 According to analysts, Outdoor Retailer had an estimated annual economic impact of $45 million dollars.

During the summer months, local headlines followed a wildfire burning near Brian Head Ski Resort and Cedar Breaks National Monument. This human‐caused “Brian Head Fire”—the largest active wildfire in the nation at the time—lasted two months and burned more than 70,000 acres of southern Utah land. As a result, nearby Cedar Breaks experienced decreased visitation during the course of the fire in June and July (down seven percent and 20 percent, respectively). In August, it was announced that Deer Valley Resort would be acquired by a newly formed resort company (name to be determined) controlled by affiliates of KSL Capital Partners, LLC, and Henry Crown and Company

2 Outdoor Retailer is the world’s largest outdoor sports trade show, which brings together outdoor sports businesses, brands, representatives, leaders, and suppliers.

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that joined with Intrawest Resorts Holdings, Inc., Mammoth Resorts, and Squaw Valley Ski Holdings. Solitude Mountain Resort was not included in the buy and Deer Valley Partners will maintain ownership of Solitude.

The following month, the Utah Office of Tourism hosted its annual Utah Tourism Conference at the Uintah Conference Center in Vernal, Utah. The annual tourism conference brings together over 300 local and national travel partners and industry experts. Similarly, Utah’s Office of Outdoor Recreation hosted two Summits in 2017, including conferences at Snowbird Ski Resort and Ruby’s Inn/Bryce Canyon.

Due in part to Utah’s growing travel and tourism industry, the Utah Legislature passed new legislation this year to support Utah’s outdoor recreation infrastructure as well as an educational pilot program in tourism management. SB 264 (effective January 2018) will enact a 0.32 percent statewide transient room tax on short term lodging. Revenue from this statewide lodging tax will be deposited into the Hospitality and Tourism Management Education Account and the Outdoor Recreation Infrastructure Account.

Utah’s airline industry had an eventful year as well. As of October 2017, Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC) reported five percent and 25 percent year‐over‐year increases in total domestic and international passengers, respectively. In addition, the first phase of SLC’s $3 billion redevelopment project reached midpoint this fall, with all five phases to be completed by 2025. Smaller airports across the state announced flight expansions. St. George‐based SkyWest Airlines added a second roundtrip flight to Phoenix and a roundtrip flight to Los Angeles; Utah’s Ogden‐Hinckley airport added flights to Las Vegas and Los Angeles with plans to add future flights to Dallas, Denver, and Seattle.

Finally, after visiting Utah in early May to conduct a review of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase‐Escalante National Monuments, U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke recommended that President Trump reduce the size of both monuments. In December 2017, almost one year after Obama’s creation of Bears Ears, Trump not only reduced the size of Bears Ears

and Grand Staircase‐Escalante, but also divided the two monuments into five smaller monuments. Trump’s announcement was met with applause and opposition.

Currently, several tribes, conservation groups, outdoor retailer Patagonia, and other local organizations are suing President Trump’s executive action in federal court. Shortly after Trump’s proclamation, Representative Chris Stewart introduced legislation to create Escalante Canyons National Park and Preserve in a portion of the former Grand Staircase‐Escalante National Monument. If this legislation is approved by Congress, Utah will have six national parks.

2018 Outlook

Despite uncertainty surrounding the United States’ international travel ban, continued low gas prices, two destructive hurricanes on U.S. soil (Harvey and Irma), and the proposal by the National Park Service to increase entrance fees at 17 of the nation’s most visited parks including four of Utah’s Mighty Five, the U.S. travel industry remained strong in 2017.

Likewise, the U.S. economy continues to grow and consumer confidence remains high. The U.S. Travel Association forecasts a four percent increase in domestic and international spending in the U.S. next year along with a two percent increase in domestic leisure person‐trips and a two percent increase in international visitation.

The Utah tourism and travel outlook for 2018 remains equally optimistic. In the year ahead, it is estimated that Utah will experience a two percent increase in travel‐related jobs and wages, a four percent increase in travel‐related sales, and a six percent increase in travel‐related tax revenues.

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Figure 19.1Accommodations Taxable Sales, 2007‐2016

(Millions of 2016 Dollars)

Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data

$927 $914

$783$834

$949

$1,067$1,136

$1,227

$1,377

$1,500

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millions of 2016 Dollars

Sources: U.S. National Park Service and Ski Utah

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

millions

Figure 19.2Utah National Park and Skier Days, 1983‐2016

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Table 19.1

Historical Tourism Data in Utah

1983 $141 2,465,294 5,214,498 7,059,964 2,038,5441984 $161 2,616,301 4,400,103 7,514,113 2,317,2551985 $165 2,804,693 4,846,637 8,984,780 2,369,9011986 $176 3,224,694 5,387,791 9,990,986 2,436,5441987 $197 3,566,069 5,489,539 10,163,883 2,491,1911988 $221 3,941,791 5,072,123 10,408,233 2,440,6681989 $241 4,135,399 4,917,615 11,898,847 2,368,9851990 $261 4,425,086 5,033,776 11,982,276 2,572,1541991 $295 4,829,317 5,425,129 12,477,926 2,500,1341992 $313 5,280,166 5,908,000 13,870,609 2,751,5511993 $352 5,319,760 6,950,063 15,894,404 2,560,8051994 $378 5,111,428 6,953,400 17,564,149 2,850,0001995 $429 5,381,717 7,070,702 18,460,000 2,800,0001996 $477 5,749,156 7,478,764 21,088,482 3,113,800

1997 $519 5,537,260 7,184,639 21,068,314 2,954,690

1998 $540 5,466,090 6,943,780 20,297,371 3,042,7671999 $545 5,527,478 6,768,016 19,944,556 3,095,3472000 $568 5,332,266 6,555,299 19,900,770 3,278,2912001 $578 4,946,487 6,075,456 18,367,961 2,984,5742002 $667 5,147,950 5,755,782 18,662,030 3,141,2122003 $599 5,042,756 4,570,393 18,466,756 3,429,1412004 $661 5,318,157 4,413,702 18,352,495 3,895,578 127,739 $5,648 $7582005 $754 5,329,931 4,377,041 22,237,936 4,062,188 126,151 $5,779 $7722006 $740 5,165,498 4,494,990 21,557,646 4,082,094 124,482 $5,908 $7852007 $821 5,445,591 4,925,277 22,044,533 4,258,900 138,848 $6,769 $9052008 $838 5,670,851 4,564,770 20,790,400 3,972,984 136,893 $6,925 $9082009 $713 6,002,104 4,820,930 20,432,218 4,048,153 125,380 $3,151 $5,689 $7712010 $767 6,072,900 4,842,891 21,016,686 4,223,064 124,952 $3,263 $6,317 $8672011 $899 6,304,838 4,803,876 20,389,474 3,802,536 126,821 $3,413 $6,955 $9422012 $1,027 6,555,833 5,093,740 20,096,549 4,031,621 125,500 $4,684 $7,318 $9892013 $1,106 6,328,040 4,063,382 20,186,474 4,161,585 126,500 $4,768 $7,507 $1,0582014 $1,211 7,239,149 3,740,896 21,141,610 3,946,762 131,500 $5,049 $7,805 $1,0972015 $1,364 8,369,533 4,482,866 22,141,026 4,457,575 136,500 $5,282 $8,169 $1,1502016 $1,500 10,087,077 5,175,615 23,155,527 4,584,658 144,200 $5,607 $8,402 $1,227

Percent Change

2015‐2016 10.0% 20.5% 15.5% 4.6% 2.9% 5.6% 6.2% 2.9% 6.7%Average Annual Rate of Change1983‐2016 7.4% 4.4% 8.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.0% 4.9% 3.4% 4.1%

Note: Beginning in 2013, Utah State Parks employed a new methodology to calculate recreational visitaiton.

Employment estimates provided by GOMB (2004‐2008) and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (2009‐present); new methodology employed in 2012.

Wage estimates provided by Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (2009‐present); new methodology employed in 2012.

Spending estimates provided by D.K. Shifflet (2004‐2008) and KANTAR TNS (2009‐present).

Tax revenue estimates provided by GOMB (2004‐2008) and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (2009‐present); new methodology employed in 2013.

*Dollar amounts reported in nominal dollars

Source: National Park Service; Utah State Tax Commission; Utah Department of Transportation; Department of Workforce Services; Department of

Natural Resources; Salt Lake International Airport; Ski Utah; Department of Community & Economic Development; Governor's Economic Development;

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute ‐ University of Utah; Governor's Office of Management and Budget; Governor's Office of Economic Development ‐

Office of Tourism; D.K Shiflet and Associates Ltd; U.S. Travel Association; and KANTAR TNS.

National

Park

Visits

Accommodations

Taxable Sales

(millions*)

Year Skier DaysState Park

Visits

Traveler

Spending

(millions*)

Travel‐

Related Tax

Revenue

(millions*)

Travel‐

Related

Wages

(millions*)

Travel‐

Related

Emplyment

Salt Lake

Int'l Airport

Passengers

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20. Nonprofit Sector

Madison Keyser, Utah Nonprofits Association Kate Rubalcava, Utah Nonprofits Association

2017 Overview

The nonprofit sector plays a role in the social and economic fabric of Utah. When public and private organizations are unable to meet community needs, public charities are asked– and are even created– to intervene. In doing this, nonprofits earn their tax exempt status from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). In addition to investing significant financial and human resources toward social impact, the nonprofit sector plays a vital yet largely unknown role in local economic development.

There were 9,686 registered tax‐exempt nonprofit organizations in the state as of September 2017. Seventy percent of these organizations were registered 501(c)3 public charities that serve religious, educational, scientific, and public purposes and whose work addresses needs within our communities and throughout the world.1 Often public charities and foundations are examined together, however, this chapter focuses specifically on 501(c)3 public charities because they deliver services and make up the largest portion of the nonprofit sector in Utah. Most religious institutions and state‐funded universities are 501(c)3 public charities and are underrepresented because they are not required to file an IRS 990 form unless they request government grants. Due to a simplification in Form 1023, when filing for nonprofit status through the IRS, many organizations are not given a National Taxonomy Exempt Entities (NTEE) code or are categorized as “unknown/unclassified.”

1 Internal Revenue Service, Exempt Organizations Business Master File, 10/2017 2 Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/2015/pdf/gsp0615.pdf

The nonprofit sector contributes to the state’s economy. Total gross revenues reported by all 501(c)3 organizations in Utah was more than $9.3 billion in 2017, equivalent to over six percent of Utah’s gross domestic product (GDP).2 Utah consistently shows that the nonprofit sector is growing and making up a greater GDP percentage in comparison to other states in the nation.3

The three largest reporting charitable organizations in the state by revenue are Intermountain Healthcare, Western Governor’s University, and the Center for Excellence in Higher Education. They reported almost $6 billion in gross revenues for 2017 totaling close to 67 percent of the state’s nonprofit revenue contribution.

It is reported that 71 percent of public charities in Utah have annual revenues of less than $500,000 and 64 percent show less than $25,000 in receipts. The economic impact of Utah’s public charities is largely driven by organizations with more robust budgets, but the positive social impact has a broader reach. Utah Nonprofits Association welcomes partnering with any organization seeking to clarify the nonprofit social return on investment.

Volunteerism remains critical to the success of the nonprofit sector across the United States. Utah has ranked highest in the country in volunteerism for 10 consecutive years (2005 to 2015). In 2015,4 Utah volunteers logged 171 million service hours,

3 Urban Institute, The Nonprofit Sector in Brief 2015, http://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/alfresco/publication‐pdfs/2000497‐The‐Nonprofit‐Sector‐in‐Brief‐2015‐Public‐Charities‐Giving‐and‐Volunteering.pdf 4 Latest data available

145

equivalent to nearly 82,000 full‐time employees and $3.8 billion worth of services.5

2018 Outlook

While Utah’s general economic future looks stable with unemployment at less than four percent, the nonprofit sector still lacks recent and historical employment data to help answer questions about jobs and salaries as they relate to the other industries in the state. Utah Nonprofits Association would like to consider partnering with the Department of Workforce Services to find better ways to monitor and track employment information for the benefit of nonprofit leaders and policy makers. Looking ahead, federal tax reform could ultimately impact the success of nonprofits, including Utah’s public charities. A concerning aspect of the federal tax bill includes a projected decrease in charitable

giving. Nonprofits in the United States rely heavily on charitable donations in order to meet the public need that they were created to fulfill. In 2016 alone, Americans donated over $389 billion to charitable organizations and Utah ranks first in the nation for charitable giving.6,7 Charitable donations are projected to take a steep dive as federal tax reform doubles the standard deduction thus decreasing the incentive for Americans to contribute to charitable organizations. The loss of incentive equates to an estimated $13 billion loss in charitable donations each year nationally.

In fact, according to a recent report on Utah’s philanthropic landscape, the factor of “tax benefit” was ranked third by Utahans as a top motivator for charity donation. Without donations, nonprofit budgets—many that are expected to increase—will suffer resulting in a failure to provide services to meet the needs of the community, pay workers, and contribute to the growth of the GDP.

5 Corporation for National and Community Service, Utah Trends and Highlights Overview, 12/2016, https://www.nationalservice.gov/vcla/state/Utah 6 National Philanthropic Trust, Charitable Giving Statistics, 11/2017, https://www.nptrust.org/philanthropic‐resources/charitable‐giving‐statistics/

7 Giving State 2017 A Report on Utah’s Philanthropic Landscape. Toronto, S, Allen, J, Smyth, A, Schmidt, D, Clairtas and Cicero Group.

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Source: Internal Revenue Service; Exempt Organizations Business Master File List, September 2017Note: Approximately 1,600 charities are missing from the above chart; possibly due to the simplification of Form 1023

Figure 20.1Registered 501(c)3 Public Charities by Major Purpose

September 2017

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Arts, Culture, and Humanities

Education

Animals and Environment

Health

Human Services

International/Foreign Affairs

Public/Societal Benefit

Religion Related

Mutual/Membership Benefit

Unknown/Unclassified

Figure 20.2 Public 501(c)3 Charities by County

Source: Internal Revenue Service; Exempt Organizations Business Master File List, September 2017

147

Figure 20.3 Total Sector Non‐Reporting Charities versus Reporting

Public Charities

73.30%

26.70%

2007

Non‐reporting (or with less than $25,000 of receipts)

Reporting Public Charities


60.37%

39.63%

2017

Non‐reporting (or with less than $25,000 of receipts)

Reporting Public Charities

Figure 20.4 Private Foundations versus 501(c)3 Charities


14.93%

85.07%

2007

501(c)(3) Private Foundations 501(c)(3) Charities

15.32%

84.68%

2017

501(c)(3) Private Foundations 501(c)(3) Charities

148

Source: The Giving State 2017 A Report On Utah’s Philanthropic Landscape; Figure 3 pg. 9; Sariah Toronto, Jacob Allen, Anna Smyth, David Schmidt; Claritas and Cicero Group

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Make aDifference

Desire to GiveBack

Tax Benefit ReligiousBeliefs

Other Leave apersonal orfamily legacy

Gain PublicVisibility

Marketing

Figure 20.5Utahns: What are the top 3 factors that motivate your decision

to be philanthropic?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Budget Requirements Increases

Sources of Funds Will Change

Programs and Services Provided Will Change

The Issue Areas we Focus On Will Change

Budget Requirements Decreases

No Changes

Figure 20.6Utah Nonprofits' Anticipated Organizational Changes in the Next

Three Years

Source: The Giving State, 2017 A Report On Utah’s Philanthropic Landscape; Appendix pg. 57; Sariah Toronto, Jacob Allen, Anna Smyth, David Schmidt; Claritas and Cicero Group

149

Documents

Economic Report - Kem C. Gardner Policy Institutegardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018-ERG-Report.pdf · Utah Farm Bureau Federation 9865 South State Street Sandy, UT 84070 801‐233‐3004