Subcommittee on Hydrology ( SOH) 2007 Report February 21, 2008 Steve Blanchard USGS

Subcommittee on Subcommittee on HydrologyHydrology

((SOH)SOH)

2007 Report2007 Report

February 21, 2008

Steve BlanchardUSGS

Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology

The purpose of the Subcommittee is to analyze The purpose of the Subcommittee is to analyze relevant issues and facts and to draft proposed relevant issues and facts and to draft proposed position papers or recommendations for position papers or recommendations for improving the availability and reliability of improving the availability and reliability of surface-water quantity informationsurface-water quantity information. .

Carry out purpose by: (a) sharing valuable water related information through

the meetings and activities, and (b) organizing working groups to accomplish tasks as

needed.


• Change in SOH Leadership at end of October 2007 meeting

• Big Thanks to Past Chair – Sam LinFederal Energy Regulatory Commission

• Chair – Steve Blanchard U.S. Geological Survey• Vice Chair – Mary Greene Office of Surface Mining

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Meeting Outside DC


Very active committee Met 4 times in 2007

January, April, July, October Meet 4x per year for about a decade

4 Work Groups Hydrologic Modeling

(Don Frevert – BOR) Satellite Telemetry Interagency

(Ernest Dreyer – USGS) Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

(Will Thomas – ASFPM) Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Applications

(Bill Merkel – NRCS)

Subcommittee on HydrologySubcommittee on Hydrology Agricultural Research Service Agricultural Research Service American Forests American Forests Association of State Floodplain Association of State Floodplain

ManagersManagers Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Land Management Bureau of Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation Defenders of Property RightsDefenders of Property Rights Federal Emergency Federal Emergency

Management AgencyManagement Agency Federal Energy Regulatory Federal Energy Regulatory

CommissionCommission Federal Highway Federal Highway

Administration Administration NASA/Goddard Space Flight NASA/Goddard Space Flight

Center Center

National Hydrologic Warning National Hydrologic Warning CouncilCouncil

Natural Resources Natural Resources Conservation Service Conservation Service

National Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service Nuclear Regulatory Nuclear Regulatory

Commission Commission Office of Surface MiningOffice of Surface Mining US Army Corps of Engineers US Army Corps of Engineers US Environmental Protection US Environmental Protection

Agency Agency US Forest Service US Forest Service US Geological Survey US Geological Survey

SOH - ActivitiesSOH - ActivitiesPublished Published newsletter newsletter

““The SOH The SOH ConnectionsConnections””

March,March,June, June, October, October, DecemberDecember

SOH - ActivitiesSOH - Activities

Exploring forming an additional Work Group with focus on data sharing

“Information management and sharing--Create links among information systems to support easy access and to share …..……Establish a mechanism that uses modern information technology to make data available to all interested parties.”

Investigating collaboration with CUAHSI and their Hydrologic Information System (HIS))

SOH - ActivitiesSOH - Activities Exploring forming an additional Work Group with

focus on extreme storms Storm-based precipitation is one of the major inputs to

rainfall-runoff models and are needed for infrastructure design considerations

The most recent Hydrometeorological Report (HMR) was published in 1999 and used data up to February 1986

Extreme storm precipitation data from last 20-40 years is not included in the existing HMRs

Desire to develop a detailed scope of work and determine the necessary funding requirements to to update HMR update HMR

SOH – Hydrologic Modeling SOH – Hydrologic Modeling Work GroupWork Group

Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conferences proceedings from 1998, 2002, 2006 scanned and ready to be linked to work group web site.

Working with Subcommittee on Sedimentation to plan for 2010 Joint Hydrologic Modeling and Sedimentation Conference – tentative facility location selected and negotiations underway.

SOH – Satellite Telemetry InteragencySOH – Satellite Telemetry Interagency Work Group (STIWG) Work Group (STIWG)

• Chartered jointly by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) and the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI).

• Reports to OFCM’s Committee for Environmental Services, Operations and Research Needs ( C/ESORN) and ACWI’s Subcommittee on Hydrology.

• Acts as a user's group for major users of the GOES DCS.

• Members include USBR, USGS, Corps of Engineers, BLM, Forest Service , NOAA, NPS, & Dept. of State.

• Advises NOAA/NESDIS of user requirements• Coordinates funding for user-desired improvements

to the GOES DCS.• Met 2x since last ACWI meeting (June 07, January

08)

Addressing Addressing Vulnerabilities in the Vulnerabilities in the

GOES DCS SystemGOES DCS System Working with NOAA/NESDIS to develop a roadmap to reduce existing vulnerabilities in the GOES DCS.

Development an Emergency Data Distribution System(EDDN) at the USGS's EROS Data Center• Development was jointly funded by the USGS and

NOAA/NESDIS.• Contract was awarded in July 2007 to install a complete

GOES Reception System.• Contract will be completed in Early March.• Integration of the EDDN into existing real-time

processing systems begins in March.

Technical Improvements to the

GOES DCS System Development of a 2-way communications capability for GOES DCS.• Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR)

contract was awarded to Sutron Corp. to build prototype.

• Contract managed by NOAA/NOS.• Prototypes expected in June 2009.

Development of a binary protocol for use on the GOES DCS.

Development of a standard format for expressing metadata about remote sites for information sharing..


Reports fromReports from Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work GroupHydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group

Will Thomas – ASFPMWill Thomas – ASFPM

Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Work GroupHydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Work Group

Bill Merkel – NRCSBill Merkel – NRCS

Questions and commentsQuestions and comments

Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work GroupWork Group

PurposePurpose: To increase the usefulness of : To increase the usefulness of the current guidelines for Hydrologic the current guidelines for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis computations (e.g. Frequency Analysis computations (e.g. Bulletin 17B) and to evaluate other Bulletin 17B) and to evaluate other procedures for frequency analysis of procedures for frequency analysis of hydrologic phenomena. hydrologic phenomena.

Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Group (HFAWG)

HFAWG composed ofHFAWG composed of 18 “active” members18 “active” members 12 corresponding members12 corresponding members Representatives from Federal agencies, private Representatives from Federal agencies, private

consultants, academia, water management consultants, academia, water management agenciesagencies

12 meetings or conference calls since January 12 meetings or conference calls since January 2000 (last conference call July 12, 2007)2000 (last conference call July 12, 2007)

http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/

http://acwi.gov/hydrology/Frequency/


Bulletin 17BBulletin 17B

Bulletin 17B - Published in 1982, includes Bulletin 17B - Published in 1982, includes guidelines for:guidelines for:

Fitting Pearson Type III distribution Fitting Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flowsto logarithms of annual peak flows

Estimating generalized skew Estimating generalized skew Weighting generalized skew with Weighting generalized skew with

station skewstation skew Low- and high-outlier detection Low- and high-outlier detection

teststests Conditional probability adjustment Conditional probability adjustment

for low outliersfor low outliers Adjustments for historic flood dataAdjustments for historic flood data

Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG)Work Group (HFAWG)

The HFAWG has developed a plan to evaluate The HFAWG has developed a plan to evaluate improvements in Bulletin 17B:improvements in Bulletin 17B: Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA)Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) = new = new

statistical technique for fitting the Pearson Type III statistical technique for fitting the Pearson Type III distributiondistribution

Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for analyzing data sets with historic and paleoflood analyzing data sets with historic and paleoflood datadata

Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for Evaluate and compare EMA and Bulletin 17B for analyzing data sets with low outliers and zero flows analyzing data sets with low outliers and zero flows


Plan for improvements to Bulletin 17B:Plan for improvements to Bulletin 17B: Describe improved procedures for estimating Describe improved procedures for estimating

generalized/regional skewgeneralized/regional skew Describe improved procedures for defining Describe improved procedures for defining

confidence limitsconfidence limits Develop an electronic version of a new Develop an electronic version of a new

Bulletin 17CBulletin 17C


Testing of EMA is taking two approachesTesting of EMA is taking two approaches Observed dataObserved data – 82 gaging stations with – 82 gaging stations with

historic peaks, high and low outliershistoric peaks, high and low outliers Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo simulation – simulate data from – simulate data from

assumed frequency distributionsassumed frequency distributions

Testing, which began in August 2007, is Testing, which began in August 2007, is being accomplished by John England, being accomplished by John England, USBR, and Tim Cohn, USGSUSBR, and Tim Cohn, USGS




EMA was implemented as part of the EMA was implemented as part of the USGS PeakFQ program – Version 5.2 on USGS PeakFQ program – Version 5.2 on USGS web site (November 2007)USGS web site (November 2007)

Bureau of Reclamation code is consistent Bureau of Reclamation code is consistent with USGSwith USGS

USACE is incorporating the EMA code in USACE is incorporating the EMA code in HEC-SSP (HEC-FFA)HEC-SSP (HEC-FFA)


EMA and Bulletin 17B analyses completed EMA and Bulletin 17B analyses completed for 82 stationsfor 82 stations

PreliminaryPreliminary differences in 100-year differences in 100-year estimates are ((EMA-B17)/B17):estimates are ((EMA-B17)/B17): 1010thth percentile = -12.24% percentile = -12.24% 2525thth percentile = -2.44% percentile = -2.44% 5050thth percentile = -0.02% percentile = -0.02% 7575thth percentile = 0.54% percentile = 0.54% 9090thth percentile = 9.71% percentile = 9.71%


Estimating generalized skewEstimating generalized skew with a with a generalized least squares regression generalized least squares regression approach looks promisingapproach looks promising Time sampling and model error are estimatedTime sampling and model error are estimated Variance of the at-site skew and spatial Variance of the at-site skew and spatial

correlation is consideredcorrelation is considered Recent study by USGS in SE USA indicates that Recent study by USGS in SE USA indicates that

effective record length of generalized skew is effective record length of generalized skew is about 70 yearsabout 70 years


Confidence intervalsConfidence intervals in Bulletin 17B do not in Bulletin 17B do not consider the uncertainty in skew estimate consider the uncertainty in skew estimate and the value of historic peaksand the value of historic peaks

Several papers describe improved Several papers describe improved procedures that can be incorporated in 17C:procedures that can be incorporated in 17C: Chowdury and Stedinger (1991)Chowdury and Stedinger (1991) Cohn et al. (2001)Cohn et al. (2001) Griffis et al. (2004)Griffis et al. (2004)


Plans for the futurePlans for the future Perform split-sampling analyses using the Perform split-sampling analyses using the

observed peak dataobserved peak data Complete the Monte-Carlo simulationsComplete the Monte-Carlo simulations Have a HFAWG meeting to discuss results to Have a HFAWG meeting to discuss results to

date – determine any new analysesdate – determine any new analyses Revise Bulletin 17B as appropriateRevise Bulletin 17B as appropriate Begin the review process of Bulletin 17CBegin the review process of Bulletin 17C

Hydrologic and Hydraulic GIS Applications Work Group

Presented by William Merkel

USDA-NRCS

SOH web page

Work Group web page

Teleconference minutes are posted

Sample Fact Sheet

USGS StreamStats

US EPA BASINS

US ACE HEC-GeoRAS

US ACE HEC-GeoHMS

NRCS Geo-Hydro

Current and future activities

• Next teleconference March 5, 2008

• Present paper at AWRA conference

• Demonstrate GIS applications

• Distribute questionnaire to federal agencies and others.

• Develop page with web links to major applications.

Questions?

Documents

Subcommittee on Hydrology ( SOH) 2007 Report February 21, 2008 Steve Blanchard USGS