Sub-Saharan Africa Class 2. 2. Environmental Factors Good source: Bloom and Sachs, 1998. Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings

Sub-Saharan AfricaClass 2

2. Environmental Factors

Good source: Bloom and Sachs, 1998. Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings Papers

1. Tropical environment and agricultural productivity

Unfavorable soil-water balance (precip. -

potential evapotranspiration) creates

problems of aridity and drought

lack of variation in day-length and lack of

dry season create induction of flowering

problem for many temperate-zone species in

humid tropics

Basic biological factors limit

agricultural yields of other species– concept of net photosynthesis

(energy net of the energy plant uses to stay alive)

–where temperatures remain very high at night losses of net photosynthetic potential are especially high

Problem of tropical soils– High precipitation leaches nutrients– makes permanent agriculture difficult

veterinary disease vectors– lack of cold weather barriers to vector

reproduction and survival

unusually vigorous plant pests--e.g. locusts

crop damage due to massive rodent

populations

2. Tropical environment and infectious and parasitic disease

Very high burdens of infectious and

parasitic diseases– account for 42.5% of lost Disability-

Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)– Compare

•India--28.9%•Western Europe--2.8%

Traditional problem with signific. Ec. impacts--Malaria

Caused by the protozoan plasmodium

transmitted by anopheles mosquito

disease ecology depends on– density of mosquitoes relative to humans– mosquito longevity relative to life cycle of

plasmodium

key variable: latency period of plasmodium in

mosquito relative to life span of mosquito

Economic costs of malaria

Medical care costs for the individual--medicines, treatment

fees, transportation, bednets, insecticides etc.

public health expenditures

loss of productivity due to illness and care of the sick

impacts on long-term cognitive performance

constraints on technical diffusion, foreign investment and

population exchange (including tourism) in endemic

malarial regions

Strategy to avoid malaria?

Settlement and development in tropical

highland areas

Problem--generally distant from coastline– result is high transportation costs

•poor transport systems

Contemporary problem---HIV/AIDS

(now the leading cause of adult deaths (15-49 years) in several Sub-Saharan

African countries and major cities)

Spread of HIV over timein sub-Saharan Africa, 1982–1997

Estimated percentage of adults

(15–49) infected with HIV 16.0% – 32.0% 8.0% – 16.0% 2.0% – 8.0% 0.5% – 2.0% 0.0% – 0.5%trend data unavailableoutside region

1982 1987

1992 1997

98036-E-12 – 15 July 1998

A global view of HIV infection 30 million adults living with HIV/AIDS as of end 1997

Estimated percentageof adults (15–49) infected with HIV

8.00% – 32.00%2.00% – 8.00%0.50% – 2.00%0.13% – 0.50%0.03% – 0.13% 0% – 0.03% not available

98036-E-11 – 15 July 1998

Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 1997

Western Europe480 000480 000

North Africa & Middle East

210 000210 000

sub-Saharan Africa

21 million21 million

Eastern Europe &Central Asia190 000190 000

South & South-East Asia

5.8 million5.8 million

Australia & New Zealand

12 00012 000

North America860 000860 000

Caribbean310 000310 000

Latin America1.3 million1.3 million

Total: 30.6 millionTotal: 30.6 million 98036-E-1 – 15 July 1998

East Asia & Pacific420 000420 000

Estimated adult and child deaths due to HIV/AIDSfrom the beginning of the epidemic to end 1997



42 00042 000

sub-Saharan Africa





730 000730 000


7 0007 000


Caribbean110 000110 000

Latin America470 000470 000


Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 1997



13 00013 000

sub-Saharan Africa


Eastern Europe &Central Asia< 1 000< 1 000



250 000250 000


700700


Caribbean18 00018 000



Estimated number of adults and childrennewly infected with HIV during 1997



19 00019 000

sub-Saharan Africa







600600





Proportional increase in country HIV prevalence rates between 1994 and 1997

Over 100% (27)10% to 100% (47)0.01% to 10% (18)No growth (44)No 1997 data (36)

98036-E-15 – 15 July 1998

HIV prevalence among pregnant women,selected provinces, South Africa, 1990–1997

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Eastern Cape

Free State

Gauteng

KwaZulu Natal

HIV prevalence (%)

98036-E-19 – 15 July 1998

Source: Department of Health, South Africa

Increase in mortality among men 15–60 between 1986 and 1997, based on household reports (sibling histories),

selected African countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Zimbabwe Tanzania Malawi Uganda ZambiaCountry and survey date

Probability of dying from all causes (%)

1993

1988

1990

1995

1986

1991

1994

1995/96

1989 1990/91

98036-E-27 – 15 July 1998

Source: Timaeus I, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, from Demograhic and Health Survey data

Proportion of adult mortality attributable to HIV,various community studies in Africa, 1990–1996

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

rural Tanzania(HIV 4%)

small town Tanzania(HIV 7%)

rural Uganda(HIV 8%)

small town Uganda(HIV 21%)

Deaths per 1,000 person-years

Death rates among HIV-negatives

Excess deaths due to HIV

Source: Boerma T et al., in The Socio-Demographic Impact of AIDS in Africa, IUSSP, 1997 98036-E-28 – 15 July 1998

Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates – Selected African countries, 2010

Source: US Bureau of the Census

250

200

150

100

50

0

per 1000 live births with AIDS

98036-E-25 – 15 July 1998

Botswana Kenya Malawi Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe

without AIDS

Projected changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high HIV prevalence, 1995–2000

Source: United Nations Population Division, 1996

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Average life expectancy at birth, in years65

60

55

50

45

40

35

ZimbabweZimbabwe

ZambiaZambiaUgandaUganda

BotswanaBotswana

MalawiMalawi

98036-E-23 – 15 July 1998

Major categories of economic impacts

1. Reduction in population growth

rates

2. Worsening of dependency problem– HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality is

concentrated in young adults in most productive years

Increased costs (diversion of economic

resources)

–Direct costs: expends. for medical care, drugs, funerals

– Indirect costs•lost time due to illness•recruitment and training costs to replace•reduction in investment if costs are financed out of savings

•care of orphans

Conceptual Map of the impact of

HIV/AIDS on a business firm

source: Rugalema,

1999

Economic impacts on agriculture

Key issues– effect of loss of workers at critical

periods of planting and harvest– effect of switch to less labor-intensive

crops due to depleted labor supply

Cumulative number of children estimated to have been orphaned by AIDS* at age 14 or younger



14 00014 000

sub-Saharan Africa


Eastern Europe &Central Asia< 100< 100



200 000200 000


< 500< 500




Total: 8.2 millionTotal: 8.2 million * HIV-negative children who have lost their mother or both parents to AIDS before the age of 15 years98036-E-9 – 15 July 1998

Alternative perspectives that focus on economic and political factors

3. EXTERNALIST perspective. Emphasizes the colonial legacy

and the contemporary international economic environment

– place serious constraints on development prospects

4. INTERNALIST perspective. Emphasizes negative

consequences of inappropriate economic policies of African

governments

– internal policy reform can improve economic performance

3. Externalist Perspective Colonial legacy argument similar to dependency

perspective for Latin America

–additional emphasis on• traditional constraints on participation of native

Africans in the economy during the colonial period• undermining of traditional subsistence systems by

such practices as collecting taxes in cash

Externalist Perspective (cont.)Contemporary growth constraints for

agricultural exporters

declining terms of trade

–(price index of exports/price index of imports) * 100.

Reasons for Terms of Trade Problems of SSA Countries

competitive international marketplace for tropical

exporters

low demand elasticities for primary prods.

Introduction of artificial substitutes

disappearance of major agricultural markets

difficulty of adjusting production and export mix quickly

Other contemporary factors emphasized by externalists

neo-protectionism in industrial world

weak interest of TNCs in investing in Sub-

saharan Africa

Foreign Direct Investment by region, 1995, $ US billions

Sub-Saharan Africa $2.2

Middle East/North Africa $2.1

South Asia $2.0

Latin America $17.8

Eastern Europe/Central Asia$10.6

East Asia/Pacific$53.7

Documents

Sub-Saharan Africa Class 2. 2. Environmental Factors Good source: Bloom and Sachs, 1998. Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings