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COMMODITY NEWSBRIEFS: 13 NOVEMBER 2015

Please note that these articles are available in electronic format and can be requested and delivered via e-Mail. (http://intra.spoornet.co.za)

Natasha.Havenga@transnet.net

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AUTOMOTIVE RENAULT HOPES NEW ONE-TON BAKKIE WILL BE ASSEMBLED IN SA (Engineering News, 13/11/2015) Renault South Africa (SA) will introduce the Alaskan one-ton bakkie to the local market in 2017, says new CEO Nicolas de Canha. “We hope to build it here, as it shares a platform with the new Nissan Navara.” Nissan SA should announce by the end of the year whether it will produce the new Navara at its Rosslyn plant, in Pretoria. Globally, Renault holds a 43.4% stake in Nissan, while Nissan owns 15% of Renault shares. Assembling Renault’s Alaskan pickup locally will, however, not transform Renault SA into a high-volume local manufacturer, says De Canha. “We will buy the units from Nissan at an agreed price.” STEEL TWO LEADING STEEL RE-ROLLERS TO OPPOSE APPLICATION FOR 10% DUTY ON HOT-ROLLED COIL (Mining Weekly, 13/11/2015) Two leading steel processing companies will make a submission to International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (Itac) to voice their objection to ArcelorMittal South Africa’s (AMSA’s) application for tariff protection of 10% on hot-rolled coil (HRC). HRC is the flat-steel product that is milled to a certain thickness by a primary steel producer and is processed further by re-rollers into a range of semi-finished steel products. Both companies – Duferco Steel Processing (DSP) and Safal Steel – are foreign direct investors, employing over 700 South Africans directly and a further 1 200 indirectly. DSP is a cold-rolling steel company based in Saldanha Bay, on South Africa’s West Coast, while Safal Steel is a fully integrated coated steel beneficiator based in Cato Ridge, KwaZulu-Natal. AMSA confirmed recently that it had submitted applications for tariff protection on a broad range of steel products produced in South Africa, including HRC. In addition, CEO Paul O’Flaherty revealed that the JSE-listed group was preparing antidumping applications on several products, arguing that the 10% protection would be insufficient to stave off “unfair” Chinese imports. To date, Itac has granted 10% protection on galvanised and colour-coated steel, and it was considering applications for reinforcing bar and wire rod, as well as plate, HRC, cold-rolled coil, tin plate, sections, bars and rods and semi-finished products such as slabs, blooms and billets. O’Flaherty indicated that AMSA could apply for antidumping duties of between 30% and 40% for HRC and for between 50% and 60% on some wire products. DSP GM Ludovico Sanges and Safal COO Raghu Ram warn that protection on HRC would have dire implications for the sustainability of their value-adding operations and for job retention. In an interview they stressed that AMSA did not represent the entire steel industry and that downstream processors were also in distress as a result of rising processed-steel imports and weak domestic market conditions.

http://intra.spoornet.co.za/mailto:Natasha.Havenga@transnet.net

Transnet Freight Rail News Briefs Page 2 of 9

COAL SIBANYE INTERESTED IN ANGLO’S SOUTH AFRICA COAL ASSETS (Mineweb, 13/11/2015) Sibanye Gold is interested in buying Anglo American’s coal assets in South Africa as part of its plan to reduce reliance on state-run electricity supplier Eskom Holdings and cut power costs. “They are the type of assets we would consider in line with our move into the energy space,” James Wellsted said by e-mail Thursday. “We are looking at value-accretive growth in South Africa, as long as it supports our dividend strategy and our overall creation of value strategy for all stakeholders.” Power costs in South Africa have almost quadrupled since 2007 as Eskom struggles to build plants, fix old ones and supply the country with enough electricity after more than a decade of underinvestment. Sibanye said in September it’s conducting due diligence on Waterberg Coal Group, which has a resource of 3.4 billion metric tons that could help supply the miner with cheap, reliable electricity. Anglo American is seeking to sell some of its coal interests in South Africa, the company said in February. Moeketsi Mofokeng, a spokesman for Anglo American Coal South Africa, didn’t answer a call or immediately return an e-mail seeking comment. GRAIN DROUGHT, RAND DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR CONSUMERS (News24, 13/11/2015) South African consumers should brace themselves for a double blow on food prices from the countrywide drought and continued rand weakness, Grain SA warned. While South Africa was still recovering from a R12bn loss in maize production from last year, it is in the grip of a drought which could see it become a net importer of the crop for the first time in seven years, Grain SA CEO Jannie de Villiers told Fin24 on Wednesday. This could translate into a significant increase in maize and ultimately food prices. He said the February 2015 drought caused a 70% increase in the price of white maize which translated into a 14% increase in mealie meal prices. “There is already consumer resistance in the consumption volume ... it is going very badly with poor people in the country,” he said. South Africa’s poor are the primary consumers of mealie meal as a staple food. De Villiers also said so far the price of yellow maize has increased by 60%. Yellow maize is used for animal feed and its price has a direct impact on the prices of poultry, red meat and dairy products. De Villiers cited price increases for eggs (10%), chicken (6%), and beef (4% to 5%) and said consumers could experience much higher prices if it doesn't rain in the next 3 to 4 months. “Maize meal could increase by another 15% and most of the other products will reach double figures, but it is difficult to estimate,” he said. He also cautioned on an expected increase in wheat prices, which could impact the price of bread. “The bread price is linked to wheat ... we are always short of wheat,” De Villiers told Fin24. South Africa was a net importer of wheat and was affected by the rand exchange rate, according to De Villiers. “The depreciation of the rand is the key issue,” he said. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that South African wheat prices advanced to a record as a weaker rand made imports of the cereal more costly. Wheat for delivery in December gained 0.8% to R4 427 ($311) a metric ton by midday on the South African Futures Exchange in Johannesburg, the highest closing level since trading started in November 1997. At the same time the rand fell to a record low of R14.3827/$. TIMBER, PAPER, PUBLISHING SAPPI FY EARNINGS RISE, DESPITE TOUGH US, EUROPEAN MARKETS (Engineering News, 13/11/2015) Pulp and paper manufacturer Sappi’s earnings a share, excluding special items, for the financial year ended September 30, rose to $0.34, up 54.5% on the $0.22 a share recorded the year before. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda), excluding special items, however, decreased to $625-million, from $658-million in the previous year. Sappi’s profit increased 22%, from $135-million in 2014, to $167-million for the year under review, owing to higher operating profits and lower interest costs. The company also attributed the increase to stronger seasonal demand and an improvement in the graphic paper and dissolving wood pulp markets. Binnie noted that Sappi expected to achieve an improvement in Ebitda, excluding special items, in the first quarter of the new financial year, in addition to a “substantial” increase in earnings a share, owing to an improved operating performance and lower interest charges. “However, a severe drought is currently being experienced in many parts of South Africa and may adversely impact our mill production and consequent profitability should normal summer rainfall not be forthcoming,” he cautioned. “If things are going to be worse than we expect, then we would have to look at reallocating some of our capacity, as we have done in Europe. There are more opportunities to do that,” Binnie said, noting that the company had no plans to close any of its mills in the foreseeable future.

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MINERAL MINING S AFRICAN MINING PRODUCTION DROPS 4.8% Y/Y IN SEPT (Mining Weekly, 13/11/2015) local headline mining production growth slipped back into negative territory, falling 4.8% year-on-year in September, the sector probably entered a technical recession in the third quarter, which will be confirmed when production-side gross domestic product figures are released on November 24, BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities said on Thursday. Economist Jeffrey Schultz noted that the decline was unsurprising, considering the rising pressures in an industry which continued to grapple with falling global commodity prices, weak demand and faltering productivity. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, production slipped 3.7% in September, its third consecutive month of decline. The decrease was driven mainly by a 7.3% contraction in coal production, a 3.2% drop in platinum group metals (PGMs) output and a 1.9% contraction in gold production. The largest year-on-year negative growth rates were recorded in the diamonds sector, falling 38.5%, “other” metallic minerals, which fell 30.1% and iron-ore, down 17.9%. PGMs was a significant positive contributor, with output rising 25% year-on-year. However, Schultz warned that this favourable base effect from last year’s strikes in the platinum sector was fading fast, with PGM production growth having registered growth of nearly 100% year-on-year in May. Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 2.5% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. NON-FERROUS METALS COPPER PRICE DROPS TO SIX-AND-A-HALF YEAR LOW (Mining, 13/11/2015) In New York trade on Thursday copper for delivery in December fell sharply after economic data out of China showed growth in fixed investment – a key driver of copper demand – at a 15-year low. After a week of declines copper traded at a day low of $2.1585 per pound or around $4,760 a tonne on Thursday, down more than 2% from Wednesday's close and the lowest since May 2009. Copper traded below today's level for seven months at the height of the global financial crisis on its way to a record above $4.40 a pound 18 months later. For a sustained period below $2.20 you have to go back a decade. The red metal's latest leg down comes after statistics from China, responsible for more than 45% of global copper demand, indicated a broad measure of credit growth in the economy – so-called total social financing or TSF – edged down to 11.8%, bringing credit expansion close to the all-time low of hit in June. For metals and mining, fixed asset investment data released earlier was even more damaging with growth estimated at 10.2% year on year for the first ten months of the year. While on the face of it a robust number in absolute terms it represents the slowest growth since 2000 and the 17th straight month of declines. TRANSNET

TNPA LAUNCHES FIRST TUGBOAT IN R1.4BN BUILD PROGRAMME (Engineering News, 13/11/2015)

The first tugboat of Transnet National Ports Authority’s (TNPA’s) R1.4-billion tug building programme was launched at the Durban premises of contractor Southern African Shipyards on Thursday. The 31-m-long Mvezo would be handed over to the Port of Port Elizabeth in February 2016. The handover of more tugboats would be undertaken every three months until the last tugboat was launched in early 2018. The tug building project started in August 2014 and would provide a significant boost to the local economy over its 42-month lifespan. Given the project’s tight deadlines, five tugs would be under construction at the same time. Two tugs each would be allocated to the Ports of Durban, Richards Bay and Port Elizabeth, while Saldanha, which handled the largest carriers, would receive three tugs. TNPA marine operations senior manager Eugene Rappetti noted that TNPA currently had 29 tugs in service nationally, but the requirement for bigger, strong tugboat fleets had increased in line with bigger commercial vessels calling at South African ports more frequently. GENERAL POOR DATA MAKE RATES A TOUGH CALL (Business Day, 13/11/2015) The South African Reserve Bank’s last meeting of the year is expected to be one of its toughest as the monetary policy committee is confronted by challenges of a rand in free fall and data that point to a withering economy. Mining production figures out yesterday showed a shocking decline of almost 10% in the third quarter. It was its second quarter of contraction, dragging down gross domestic product growth. Although that contraction supports the case for unchanged interest rates next week, better manufacturing production figures — after a contraction in the second quarter — rising inflation and a weak rand

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are among data supporting a rate hike. The entire economy shrank in the second quarter. Although mining is about 8% of the economy, any contraction offers good reason for the Bank to pause its hiking cycle. The last hike of 25 basis points to 6% was in July. Nedbank economist Johannes Khosa said that although the outlook remained weak, the Bank was still likely to raise rates by 25 basis points because of rising inflation, the rand’s recent plunge and the threat of surging food prices due to the severe drought. Retail and wholesale sales data out next week will give a further indication of economic performance. Stagnant demand, safety stoppages, plunging commodity prices and higher costs for labour and electricity were some of the reasons for the contraction in mining — and the trend is likely to persist. The decline was due to lower iron ore, coal, gold and diamond production. Anglo American reported last month that production from Kumba Iron Ore fell 12% to 11.4million tonnes while export thermal coal production dropped 2% to 4.9-million tonnes. There was a rise in platinum group metals production, but many analysts believed the increase could still be due to low base effects created by the strike last year. ESKOM’S MOVE TO CLAW BACK R22.8BN COULD RESULT IN 16.6% 2016 TARIFF RISE (Engineering News, 13/11/2015) State-owned electricity utility Eskom reported on Thursday that it had submitted a R22.8-billion regulatory clearing account (RCA) application to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) for the first financial year, or 2013/14, of the third multiyear price determination (MYPD3) control period, which runs from April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2018. Nersa’s Charles Hlebela confirmed receipt of the application, which the regulator had calculated could, should it be approved, result in a tariff increase of 16.61% from April 1, 2016, inclusive of the 8% already sanctioned for the year. In February 2013, Nersa approved yearly increases of 8% for the five-year MYPD3 period, having received an application from Eskom for yearly increases of 16%. BNP Paribas securities South Africa economist Jeffrey Schultz noted that the latest RCA application was nearly three times larger than what Nersa granted following the MYPD2 RCA application and came on the back of the utility’s deteriorating financial and operating position. “Of course there is no guarantee that Nersa will actually grant the utility the full R22.8-billion, as previous decisions from the regulator have shown. However with National Treasury’s getting ever closer to its ‘fiscal cliff’ and the government’s promise to rating agencies of ‘deficit neutral’ financing for State-owned entities, our view is that there is little option but to grant the utility something close to what it has asked for – presuming of course that Eskom has gone about its application in the correct manner this time around,” Schultz said. “This means more pressure on consumers, higher inflation in the second half of 2016 and a Reserve Bank which will remain in a tough bind as it continues to try to balance tepid growth prospects with an ever more challenging inflation outlook.” CURRENCIES AND PRICES

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ALSI: 3 mnth to 12 Nov 15

(Mail & Guardian, 13/11/2015)

JSE AS AT 17:00PM 12 NOVEMBER 2015

All Share Index 12/11 52,057

- 537.43 - 1.02%

Industrials Index 12/11 43,389

- 478.68 - 1.09%

Financials Index 12/11 43,256

- 655.33 - 1.49%

Top 40 Index 12/11 46,788

- 478.33 - 1.01%

Industrial 25 Index 12/11 72,199

- 370.95 - 0.51%

Financial 15 Index 12/11 15,955

- 265.53 - 1.64%

Resources 10 Index 12/11 28,900

- 987.55 - 3.30%

Alt-X Index 12/11 1,541

+ 0.52 + 0.03%

WORLD INDICATORS

FOREX

Rand/Dollar 06:49 14.2833

+ 0.13 + 0.94%

Rand/Pound 06:45 21.6889

+ 0.17 + 0.79%

Rand/Euro 06:45 15.4097

+ 0.18 + 1.19%

COMMODITIES

Gold (usd/oz) 06:48 1,083.91

- 3.29 - 0.30%

Platinum (usd/oz) 06:48 874.85

- 5.15 - 0.59%

Brent (usd/barrel) 06:45 44.12

- 1.69 - 3.69%

WORLD MARKETS

Wall St (DJIA) 12/11 17,448

- 254.15 - 1.44%

Germany (DAX) 12/11 10,783

- 49.89 - 0.46%

Japan (Nikkei) 06:48 19,556

- 142.26 - 0.72%

(Business Report, 13/11/2015)

http://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=1052&code=J203&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=5191&code=J520&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=1032&code=J580&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=229&code=J200&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=944&code=J211&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=1031&code=J212&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=1410&code=J210&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/JSEIndicesChart.aspx?id=15860&code=J232&type=ihttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=1&code=USDZAR&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=10717&code=GBPZAR&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=556&code=EURZAR&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=800&code=GOLD&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=1284&code=+PL$&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=359&code=+BRN&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=498&code=+DJI&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=465&code=DAX&type=chttp://www.profiledata.co.za/irsites/iol/BusinessReport/Indicators/WorldIndicatorsChart.aspx?id=1232&code=NIKK&type=c

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(TFR Commercial Management: Business Performance Dept)

Petrol/ Diesel Price

YR2015

07-Jan-

15

04-Feb-

15

04-Mar-

15

01-Apr-

15

06-May-

15

03-Jun-

15

01-Jul-

15

05-Aug-

15

02-Sep-

15

07-Oct-

15

04-Nov-

15

02-Dec-

15

COASTAL

95 LRP (c/l) 1083.00 990.00 1086.00 1246.00 1246.00 1293.00 1334.00 1283.00 1214.00 1218.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1083.00 990.00 1086.00 1246.00 1246.00 1293.00 1334.00 1283.00 1214.00 1218.00

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Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 997.49 895.49 969.49 1090.09 1085.09 1134.09 1138.09 1062.27 1008.27 1061.27

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1001.89 899.89 973.89 1096.49 1091.49 1137.49 1141.49 1067.67 1016.67 1067.67

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 697.728 595.728 668.728 690.828 685.828 727.828 733.828 663.828 608.828 658.828

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 1829.00 1679.00 1833.00 1918.00 1935.00 2035.00 2091.00 2002.00 1887.00 1898.00

GAUTENG

93 LRP (c/l) 1102.00 1009.00 1105.00 1261.00 1261.00 1308.00 1352.00 1301.00 1232.00 1230.00

93 ULP (c/l) 1102.00 1009.00 1105.00 1261.00 1261.00 1308.00 1352.00 1301.00 1232.00 1230.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1124.00 1031.00 1127.00 1289.00 1289.00 1336.00 1377.00 1326.00 1257.00 1261.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1028.09 926.09 1000.09 1122.79 1117.79 1166.79 1170.79 1094.97 1040.97 1093.97

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1032.49 930.49 1004.49 1129.19 1124.19 1170.19 1174.19 1100.37 1049.37 1100.37

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 747.928 645.928 718.928 743.828 738.828 780.828 786.828 716.828 661.828 711.828

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2011.00 1861.00 2015.00 2100.00 2117.00 2217.00 2273.00 2184.00 2069.00 2080.00

YR2014

01-Jan-

14

05-Feb-

14

05-Mar-

14

02-Apr-

14

07-May-

14

04-Jun-

14

02-Jul-

14

06-Aug-

14

03-Sep-

14

01-Oct-

14

05-Nov-

14

03-Dec-

14

COASTAL

95 LRP (c/l) 1320.00 1359.00 1395.00 1398.00 1383.00 1361.00 1392.00 1392.00 1325.00 1320.00 1275.00 1206.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1320.00 1359.00 1395.00 1398.00 1383.00 1361.00 1392.00 1392.00 1325.00 1320.00 1275.00 1206.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1260.55 1284.75 1311.95 1299.15 1269.37 1245.79 1259.79 1254.17 1228.79 1215.79 1154.79 1101.49

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1263.95 1288.15 1316.35 1304.55 1274.77 1249.19 1263.19 1258.57 1234.19 1221.19 1161.19 1106.89

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 963.828 975.828 991.828 953.028 934.028 924.028 947.028 940.028 921.028 907.028 855.028 805.728

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2260.00 2314.00 2372.00 2350.00 2346.00 2319.00 2377.00 2365.00 2257.00 2269.00 2164.00 2039.00

GAUTENG

93 LRP (c/l) 1336.00 1375.00 1411.00 1416.00 1401.00 1379.00 1408.00 1408.00 1341.00 1343.00 1298.00 1229.00

93 ULP (c/l) 1336.00 1375.00 1411.00 1416.00 1401.00 1379.00 1408.00 1408.00 1341.00 1343.00 1298.00 1229.00

95 ULP (c/l) 1357.00 1396.00 1432.00 1439.00 1424.00 1402.00 1433.00 1433.00 1366.00 1361.00 1316.00 1247.00

Diesel 0.05% (c/l) 1287.15 1311.35 1338.55 1329.75 1299.97 1276.39 1290.39 1284.77 1259.39 1246.39 1185.39 1132.09

Diesel 0.005% (c/l) 1290.55 1314.75 1342.95 1335.15 1305.37 1279.79 1293.79 1289.17 1264.79 1251.79 1191.79 1137.49

Illuminating Paraffin (c/l) 1009.728 1021.728 1037.728 1003.228 984.228 974.228 997.228 990.228 971.228 957.228 905.228 855.928

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

(c/kg) 2442.00 2496.00 2554.00 2532.00 2528.00 2501.00 2559.00 2547.00 2439.00 2451.00 2346.00 2221.00

(SAPIA online)

Daily prices for 12 November 2015

LME Official Prices, US$ per tonne

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Contract Aluminium Alloy Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc NASAAC

Cash Buyer 1550.00 1484.00 4872.00 1592.00 9365.00 14650.00 1570.00 1685.00

Cash Seller & Settlement 1560.00 1484.50 4872.50 1592.50 9370.00 14655.00 1570.50 1695.00

3-months Buyer 1555.00 1492.00 4859.00 1606.00 9400.00 14650.00 1589.00 1700.00

3-months Seller 1565.00 1492.50 4860.00 1608.00 9440.00 14655.00 1591.00 1710.00

Dec 1 Buyer 1555.00 1525.00 4845.00 1638.00 9465.00 1620.00 1745.00

Dec 1 Seller 1565.00 1530.00 4855.00 1643.00 9565.00 1625.00 1755.00

15-months Buyer 14535.00

15-months Seller 14585.00

Dec 2 Buyer 1580.00 4845.00 1675.00 9550.00 1645.00

Dec 2 Seller 1585.00 4855.00 1680.00 9650.00 1650.00

Dec 3 Buyer 1637.00 4840.00 1695.00 9630.00 1667.00

Dec 3 Seller 1642.00 4850.00 1700.00 9730.00 1672.00

(London Metal Exchange, 13/11/2015)

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