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1
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Information Technology andInformation Technology andProcessing PowerProcessing Power
The OverviewThe Overview
Dr. Stephen TseDr. Stephen Tse
Lesson 1Lesson 1
2
Stephen TseStephen Tse
History of Information/Communications
230
1430
18301870191019501990
2006
1030
630PaperGunpowder
Compass
Graphite Pencil
EraserCarbon PaperEnvelopeTransAtlantic TelegraphBell’s Telephone
TransAtlantic RadioTeletype Color TV
Optical Fiber Telstar Electronic Switch.Wireless Microwave
1st Fiber Comm PC 1st Fiber TAT
?
1600 Years
160 Years
10 YearsATM Portables Solutions PCS CDs WWW MultimediaCellular DNA E-Commerce
20026 Years
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
..
The Original Patent of Telephone Delivery
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Initial Deployment of the Telephone NetworkOverhead Wires at Broadway and John Street, New York,
1890
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
1890 1990
Hundred Years Later
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
• The function of the Total is much bigger then the sum of individuals.• The digital economy: The age of Networked Intelligence• Bell Labs leading the Information revolution:
- 1962-Bell Labs invented packet switching protocol network. - 1969-ARPANET is formed.- 1971-Invention of EMAIL PROGRAM- 1974-Invention of Transmission Control Protocol.
• Everyone can express and do their best - Touch the basic human nature• Reach out & touch everyone vs. Blocking people• The Right Choice vs. No Choice • Experience Science vs. Physical Science• Non-equilibrium System vs. Equilibrium• Dissipative Structures vs. Atomic Structure• Synergetic/Cooperate vs. Cybernetics/Control • Opened Systems vs. Closed Systems• Disruptive Technologies vs. Traditional• Agile Architecture vs. Customized• Convulsive Market vs. Regulated Market
New System Theory: 1+1>3New System Theory: 1+1>3The Rise of the Network SocietyThe Rise of the Network Society
I. Prigogine - Order Out of Chaos, Dissipative Structures; E. Laszlo - The Systems View of the World; Arno Penzias - Harmony; Kelly, K - New Rules for the New Economy H. Haken - An Introduction to Synergetic; Bertalanffy, L - General System Theory;
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
CADeModem
DSP
ASICMPEG ATM
elemediaCAD
SwitchesTransmission
1947
1999
Intel P-III Micro CPU Chip
12,000,000 Transistors
First TransistorFirst Transistor
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Customers
CAD
C++ U
e
MPEG ATM
C++ UNIX
elemediaCAD
FiberOA
SwitchesWireless Sys
19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
1.6-2.41.6-2.4mm
1.0-1.21.0-1.2mm
0.7-0.80.7-0.8mm
0.5-0.60.5-0.6mm
0.35-0.40.35-0.4mm
0.25-0.30.25-0.3mm
0.15-0.20.15-0.2mm
0.150.15mm
64Kb64Kb
256Kb256Kb
1Mb1Mb
4Mb4Mb
16Mb16Mb
64Mb64Mb
256Mb256Mb
1Gb1Gb
4Gb4Gb
101044
101055
101066
101077
101088
101099
10101010
This is actually real text about illustrate-on drawing in razor
Silicon Chip Capacity Double Every 18 MonthsSilicon Chip Capacity Double Every 18 Months Moors’ LawMoors’ Law
Encyclopedia
One Book
One Page
Capacity
Year
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
60 nm60 nm
sourcesource draindrain
182 monolayers channel182 monolayers channel
1.2 nm (~4 atoms)1.2 nm (~4 atoms)
WSixWSix
Poly-SiPoly-Si
These technologies will help enable: 250X reduction in DSP power 64 Gbit DRAM 200 GHz transistor speeds 10 GHz processor clocks
High-Performance, Atomic-Scale Transistors
- 0.08 Micron Technology- 0.08 Micron Technology
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
UUNIX
System-on-a-ChipSystem-on-a-ChipDifferent Kinds of Devices are Being Combined
Acoustic reflecting
layers
Si Substrate
Piezoelectric film
Electrode . New process enables acoustic filters, memory, analog circuits and digital logic to be combined on one silicon chip
. Advantages for systems, reduced:. Size. Power. Cost. Complexity
Cellular HandsetReduced to 2 Chips
Memory
ASICDSP
Filters
Mixers/VCOLNA/PA
Low Cost High FrequencyAcoustic Filter
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Fifth Wave of Computing
Mainframe
Mini-Computer
PC-Workstation
PDA, Wireless, Handhold, Portable
Mobile Data, Wearable-PC, Smart Phone
1st Wave
2nd Wave
3rd Wave
4th Wave
5th Wave
The “Fifth Wave“ of Computing marketis greater than that of Portable, Handhold,Mini-Computer and Mainframe Combined.
12
Stephen TseStephen Tse05/15/00 -- 2Lucent Technologies Proprietary
NETWORKED ECONOMY
BuildingsBuildings
HomesHomes
ComputersComputers
PeoplePeople
Smart CardsSmart Cards
SmartVendingSmart
Vending
$$$$
Smart AppliancesSmart Appliances
WirelessWireless
IntelligentTransit
IntelligentTransit
Handheld Devices
Handheld Devices
Entertainment Devices
Entertainment Devices
Communication Fuels the New
Economy
13
Stephen TseStephen Tse
PCS Cellular InternetToday in TelecommunicationsToday in Telecommunications
How fast? (Feb. 2000)1.6 Trillion bits/second = 13~15 M calls/sec.or 400 years daily newspaper data/second
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Global Communications GrowthGlobal Communications Growth
Telephone Subscribers Internet Hosts
BillionMillions
10,000 -
1,000 -
100 -
6 -
3 -
1 -
.3 -
.1 - | | | | | | | | | | | 1980 ‘83 ‘86 ‘89 ‘92 ‘95 ‘98 ‘01 ‘04 ‘07 ‘10
Wireless
Wired
| | | | | | | | |
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
Source: Network Wizardshttp://www.nw.com/
Internet Hosts
Least SquaresFit Projection
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Stephen TseStephen TseStephen TseStephen Tse
16
Stephen TseStephen Tse
Loop CostsLoop Costs
Inst
alle
d C
ost
($)
(Voi
ce)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
1000 Fixed
WirelessWireline
Installed Cost (Voice)
Fixed Wireless Loops will increase in Bit Rate & become less expensive than Wire Loops
17
Stephen TseStephen Tse
PCS Cellular Internet
““Smart Antennas”Smart Antennas” Signal Processing Increase System Capacity by 1000x Signal Processing Increase System Capacity by 1000x
Enable Growth of Voice, Data & Multimedia Enable Growth of Voice, Data & Multimedia
ArrayAntennaAntenna
Omni-directional pattern Multi-directional pattern
Radio
Interferer
Direct Ray
ReflectedRays
Macro Cells
Pico Cells
Micro Cells
10-fold increase in wireless capacity - More calls (20 200 ISDN calls)
- Data/Multimedia
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
SteerableAntennas
U. S. Spectrum Allocation (Freq. in MHz)U. S. Spectrum Allocation (Freq. in MHz)
FMFMTVTV TVTV SatelliteSatelliteAM RadioAM Radio Long-HaulLong-Haul SatSat
Short-HaulShort-Haul
MilitaryMilitary & Exploratory& Exploratory
0011
1010 100100 1,0001,000 10,00010,000 100,000100,000
More Efficient Spectrum Utilization + Digital Signal Processing(Digital Speech Coding, CDMA, TDMA, Flex Packet)
Better Spectrum Reuse
Macro Cells5 mile rangeCapacity = 1x
Micro Cells0.5 mile rangeCapacity = 50x
Pico Cells1000 foot rangeCapacity = 200x
Capacity = 10x Capacity = 500xCapacity = 1000x
Technology AdvancesIncreasing Wireless Capacity
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Number of Antennas0 10
Cap
acit
y (B
its/
sec/
Hz)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20 30 40 50 60
1 GB/sec LAN
Capacity of a 10 MHz channel
New Wireless Broadband CapacitySpace-Time Layering (BLAST)
.
.
.
S1
S2
S n
.
.
.
1
2
n
.
.
.
.
.
.
Cellular/PCS< 1
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
User Interface Revolution Human Machine Interface
Analog Digital
Hearing SightSpeech
TouchHandwriting
• Speech generation and recognition• Character recognition• Video• “Ease of Use” is a critical challenge to the industry
Human/Machine Interface
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Optical Networking and Bandwidth Growth
• New Network Topologies• Lower Cost Transport• Optical Processing
• New Network Topologies• Lower Cost Transport• Optical Processing
The extremely high growth rate of Internet
traffic is being matched by DWDM technology.
The extremely high growth rate of Internet
traffic is being matched by DWDM technology.
3
30
300
3000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Date of System Deployment
Fib
er s
yste
m c
apac
ity
(Gb
it/s
ec)
30
3000
Inte
rnet
Tra
ffic
(T
erab
ytes
/mon
th)
DWDMSystems
WDMSystems
1.3/1.5 m
1.5m
300
1.3m
0.8 m Wavelength
Single Fiber Capacity
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Disruptive Technologies Driving the Disruptive Technologies Driving the Communication IndustryCommunication Industry
Cellular Phone
10B
1B
100M
10M
Tra
ns
isto
rs p
er
Ch
ip
1995 2000 2005 2010
0.25µ
0.18µ
0.13µ
0.10µ
0.07µ
Probable limitfor silicon
Silicon
PC
“5ESS”Circuit Switch
0.8m Wavelength
1.3m
1.3/1.5m
1.5m WDM
WDMSystems
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sin
gle
-fib
er
cap
acit
y (
Gb
it/s
ec) Optics
Software is key to network management and new services
Software is key to network management and new services
Years
Cap
acit
y/C
ost
Disruptive Packet Technology
ATM
IP
?
Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.
Advances in Silicon, Optics, Wireless, and Software will drive a 250-fold increase in network capacity by 2005.
1995 2000 2005
1000
100
10
1
Incr
ease
ove
r A
nal
og
Cel
lula
r V
oic
e C
all C
arry
ing
Cap
acit
y
2010
Wireless
80 wavelengthsin 1998, 1,000wavelengths in2005
Multi-antenna systemincreases capacity 10x-100x
SCALPEL lithography enablesatomic-scale transistors forsystems on a chip
Protocol-agnosticQoS-enabled routers
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Stephen TseStephen Tse
Technology Advances
Technologies ExamplesImprovement1998 - 2002
Integrated Circuit Density 16x 4 GBIT DRAM
Processor Speed 15x 7700 MIPS-2G
High-Speed Switching 25x 25x106 PKTS/SEC
6.4 Terabits/sec
Speech Recognition 15x 5000 WordContinuous Speech
Lightwave 3x 3.2 Terabits/sec.
Storage 25x 50 GBYTE Card
Wireless Capacity 20x Digital, Micro and Pico cells
Software Productivity up to 10x Reusable Software/
Parallel processing
24
Stephen TseStephen Tse