SSWG 102913 Meeting

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National Exercise DivisionTechworld Building, South Tower, 2ndFloor

800 K Street, NWWashington, DC 20001

TRUSTED AGENT ONLY

October 29, 2013

Scenario Sub-Working Group

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National Exercise Division

September 24, 2013

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Agenda

Welcome and Opening Comments

Updated Planning Milestones

Component Exercise Updates

Scenario Timeline

Scenario Ground Truth Development

Upcoming Planning Meetings

Closing

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September 24, 2013

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Welcome and Opening Comments

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September 24, 2013

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Updated Planning Milestones

National Seminar

November 18, 2013

Midterm Planning Meeting

November 19-20, 2013

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September 24, 2013

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Component Exercise Updates

Alaska Shield 2014

Ardent Sentry 2014

Eagle Horizon 2014

NUWAIX 2014

Silver Phoenix 2014

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September 24, 2013

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Scenario Timeline

Thursday, March 27, 2014

10:10 am AKDT /

2:10 pm EDT

An earthquake occurs in Alaska, lasting for nearly 5 minutes. The

9.2M earthquake is centered approximately 70 miles east of

Anchorage and 50 miles west of Valdez at a depth of 16 miles.

10:11 am AKDT /

2:11 pm EDT

A 46 foot tectonic tsunami hits Seward, AK.

10:11 am AKDT /

2:11 pm EDT

A 12 foot tectonic tsunami hits Cordova, AK.

10:18 am AKDT /

2:18 pm EDT

An 8 foot tectonic tsunami hits Homer, AK.

10:22 am AKDT /

2:22 pm EDT

A 2 foot tectonic tsunami hits Unalaska, AK.

10:29 am AKDT /

2:29 pm EDT

A 29 foot tectonic tsunami hits Kodiak, AK.

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Scenario Timeline (Contd)


11:14 am AKDT /

3:14 pm EDT

A 6 foot tectonic tsunami hits Elfin Cove, AK (near Juneau, AK)

3:00 pm PDT /

6:00 EDT

A 21 foot tectonic tsunami hits Westport, WA.

3:06 pm PDT /

6:06 EDT

A 20 foot tectonic tsunami hits Newport, OR.

3:14 pm PDT /

6:14 pm EDT

A 15 foot tectonic tsunami hits Crescent City, CA.

12:57 pm HST /

6:57 pm EDT

A 7 foot tectonic tsunami hits Hanalei, HI.

1:01 pm HST /

7:01 pm EDT

A 6 foot tectonic tsunami hits Haleiwa, HI.

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4:10 pm PDT /

7:10 pm EDT

An 11 foot tectonic tsunami hits San Francisco, CA.

1:20 pm HST /

7:20 pm EDT

A 5 foot tectonic tsunami hits Hilo, HI.

4:47 pm PDT /

7:47 pm EDT

A 6 foot tectonic tsunami hits Santa Monica, CA.

Friday, March 28, 2014

5:30 am AKDT /

9:30 am EDT

A 7.8M aftershock occurs near Unalaska. This generates a small local

tsunami.

TBD The local tsunami hits Unalaska.

8:00 am AKDT /

12:00 pm EDT

A 6.5M aftershock occurs near Kodiak.

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Friday, March 28, 2014

9:00 am AKDT /

1:00 pm EDT

A ??M aftershock occurs near Cordova. This generates a local

tsunami.

TBD The local tsunami hits Cordova.

9:18 am AKDT /

1:18 pm EDT

An 8.0M aftershock occurs near Ketchikan

3:25 pm AKDT /

7:25 pm EDT

A ??M aftershock occurs near Cordova

TBD Hactivist activities at USNORTHCOM HQ

TBD TRAC2ES database hacked

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Saturday, March 29, 2014

9:56 am AKDT /

1:56 pm EDT

A 7.5M aftershock occurs southeast of Valdez. The aftershock will

fracture the previously weakened slope of Mount Thomas, sending

tons of rock, snow, dirt and debris into Prince William Sound near

Shoupe Bay. This generates a 10-15 foot high local tsunami.

10:16 am AKDT /

2:00 pm EDT

The local tsunami hits Valdez

TBD A ??M aftershock occurs near Ft. Greely

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Monday, March 31, 2014

TBD Maritime event occurs near California

Mexico border

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Tuesday, April 1, 2014

TBD Convoy transporting nuclear weapon departs XXX for XXX

5:15 am MDT /

7:15 am EDT

Traffic accident involving nuclear weapon transport convoy occurs on

I-70 near Grand Junction, Colorado

TBD Intel leads to Presidential order for activation of COGCON-1

Wednesday, April 2, 2014Thursday, April 3, 2014

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Scenario Ground Truth Development

Component exercise planners developing ground truth for their

exercises

SSWG will review and identify any additional elements or detail

required to support National exercise play

SSWG will develop draft of required elements and coordinatewith component exercise planners for approval and inclusion

SSWG will incorporate scenario ground truth data into NEP

Capstone Scenario Ground Truth document

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Scenario Ground Truth Development(Contd)

Draft Alaska Shield Scenario Ground Truth distributed to SSWGmembers on Wednesday, October 23, 2013.

Recommended deadline for submission of additional

elements/details: Thursday, November 7, 2013.

Schedule workshops with SSWG members to develop additionalelements/details and begin coordination process with Alaska

Shield planners

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Upcoming Planning Meetings

Midterm Planning Meeting

November 19-20, 2013

Scenario Sub-Working Group Meeting

December 17, 2013, 12:00 2:00 pm EST

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Closing Comments

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Documents

SSWG 102913 Meeting