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SSC Update
Caribbean Fishery Management Council San Juan, PR April 2019
SSC Mee&ng held March 26-‐28, 2019
Structure/Process of FEPs
Being developed by the CFMC’s EBFM team
Fishery Ecosystem Plan
MEETING GOALS: 1) Conceptual Model Development • Observe DAPs during model building exercises • Learn process of model development • Learn DAPs percepPons on important factors affecPng fisheries within each island and how they are connected
Fishery Ecosystem Plan
MEETING GOALS: 2) Risk Assessment • Part of prioriPzing vulnerabiliPes and risks • Responsibility of the SSC • Used to refine Conceptual Model development • Discussion on Visions and ObjecPves
Structure/Process of FEPs Where are we? Developing conceptual model
Analyzing Risk
Risk Assessment Goals for the Mee@ng
• Discuss the risk assessment approach and what has been done for the scoping phase • Refine approach/scoping, as needed • Begin scoring the Scale, Intensity, and & Consequence of some risk elements • Discuss next steps for complePng the risk assessment
Ecosystem Risk Assessment Framework
Risk Element
Habitat-Community
Risk Intensity & Consequence
Council Management Objectives
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Example: What is the risk (intensity and consequence) of not maintaining Essential Fish Habitat because of land-based pollution to Puerto Rico’s mangrove communities?
Rick Assessment
Based on: • Units of Analysis = habitat types (by island) • Proposed Management ObjecPves: Maintain OY, EFH, Resilience • Risk Elements = threats (includes intensity and consequence)
Risk Elements
64 potenPal risk elements across 7 categories: • Climate/oceanographic forces • Ecological interacPons • Fishing acPviPes • Other in-‐water acPviPes • Land-‐based acPviPes • ConservaPon and management acPons • Socio-‐economic drivers
Ini@al Scoring Sheet Example Repeat for each habitat
-‐ Clarified the methodology
-‐ Refined the scale for some scoring elements (e.g. spaPal scale of risk elements)
-‐ Rolled up some risk elements to streamline the scoring process
-‐ Discussed appropriate delineaPon of habitats as unit of analyses
-‐ Began scoring some risk elements
OUTCOMES
ISSUES Broad discussion of Approach • Units of Analysis, Risk Elements, etc.
Scales of risk elements: uniform or by habitat • Evaluate spaPal and temporal scales for each habitat type (Analysis Unit)
DefiniPon of terms • SpaPal Scale = Full extent of habitat area in which a risk element can occur
Scoring (be conservaPve) • When mixed scores within a group exist, use the highest score • For individual, if score is between 2 categories, round up to higher score.
Scoring example: Intensity
Level Score DescripPon Negligible 1 remote likelihood of detecPon at any spaPal or temporal scale
Minor 2 occurs rarely or in few restricted locaPons and detectability even at these scales is rare
Moderate 3 moderate at broader spaPal scale, or severe but local Major 4 severe and occurs reasonably ohen at broad spaPal scale
Severe 5 occasional but very severe and localised or less severe but widespread and frequent
Catastrophic 6 local to regional severity or conPnual and widespread
Revised scoring sheet detail
Units of Analysis -‐-‐> Repeat for all 7 Habitats
Mangrove Community
Category Risk Element
Risk Sim
ilar T
hrou
ghou
t Region (Y/N
)?
Risk Sim
ilar T
hrou
ghou
t Isla
nd (Y
/N)?
Risk Sim
ilar in Same Ha
bitat A
cross
Island
s (Y/N)?
Presen
ce (1
) Absen
ce (0
) SpaP
al sc
ale of Hazard (1-‐6)
Tempo
ral scale of H
azard (1-‐6)
Intensity
Score (1
-‐6)
Conseq
uence Score (1-‐6)
Confi
dence Score (1-‐2)
RaPonale Climate increased degree heaPng weeks Climate increased storm frequency &/or intensity Climate precipitaPon anomalies Climate decreased ocean pH/net calcificaPon Climate increased sea level rise/ Pdal flooding Climate reduced upwelling/ increased temperature straPficaPon/reduced O2 Climate increased water turbidity (kd) from organic and nonorganic sources Climate changes in wind energy and ocean circulaPon (e.g. increase in Sahara dust) Climate increased sargassum events (Frequency and Strength)
Next Steps
Form subcommilee • Reduce the number of risk elements • Evaluate habitats • Further evaluate definiPons
Request another SSC MeePng before the August CFMC MeePng • Populate tables as a group • Complete scoring by expert opinion • Compare results to DAP conceptual models
Review of ABCs and OFLs
The SSC scanned through the final ABCs and OFLs list to detect: • Inconsistencies • Outliers relaPve to intent Request further Pme to evaluate ABCs and OFLs