Some Facts about the Evaluation Literature

Prevention and Cost-Effectiveness in the Chicago Child-Parent Centers

Arthur J Reynolds1, Judy A Temple2, Dylan L Robertson1, Emily A Mann1, Suh-Ruu Ou1

1. University of Wisconsin-Madison2. Northern Illinois University

Society for Research in Child DevelopmentApril 26, 2003

Some Facts about the Evaluation LiteratureCost effectiveness rarely applied to child development programs

Effect sizes as economic returns

Extensive longitudinal studies of social programs are ideal for testing cost effectiveness

Most Frequently Cited Early Childhood Intervention Programs

MASSFSSACAMASSFSSACAFigure. Alternative Paths Leading to Social CompetenceEarly Childhood Ages 3-9Adolescence Ages 12-ProgramParticipationTimingDurationIntensity

Social Competence Behaviors

School Achievement and Performance Retention in Grade Receiving Special Education Services Delinquency and Crime Child Maltreatment Participation in Social Services Educational Attainment

MA= Motivational AdvantageCA = Cognitive AdvantageSA = Social AdjustmentFS = Family SupportSS = School SupportExogenous Conditions Gender Socio-Environmental Risk Neighborhood AttributesMotivation Self-efficacy Perceived competence Persistence in learningDeveloped Abilities Cognitive development Literacy skills Pre-reading/numeracy skillsSocial Adjustment Classroom adjustment Peer relations Self-regulating skillsFamily Support Parent-child interactions Home support for learning Participation in school Parenting skillsSchool Support Quality of school environment Classroom environment School-level performanceAges 5-12

Child-Parent Centers

Johnson Child-Parent Center

Chicago Longitudinal Study989 complete cohort of children graduating from Child-Parent Centers in kindergarten; they participated from 2 to 6 years. Centers are located in the highest poverty areas of Chicago.

550 children enrolled in an alternative early childhood program in kindergarten in five randomly selected schools and other schools serving low-income families. They matched on eligibility for Title I programs and socioeconomic status.

Characteristics of Program and Comparison Groups

Characteristics of Preschool Group and Comparison Group (March, 2001)

Equivalence of Program and Comparison Groups

School Readiness Skills

Adjusted Group Differences for Measures of Child Well Being in the Chicago Longitudinal Study

Special Education Placement by Age 18

HScomp

38.549.7

51.561.4

Comparison

Preschool

Percent Completing High School

High School Completion Rates Over Time

sped

24.614.4

21.315.4

20.713.5

Comparison

Preschool

Percent of Overall Sample

edattain2

38.549.7

46.855.7

51.561.4

Comparison

Preschool

Percent Completing High School

High School Completion Rates Over Time

Sheet1

Age 20 (Jan)Age 21 (Sept)Age 21 (March)

Comparison38.551.546.8

Preschool49.761.455.7

Age 20 (Jan)Age 21 (Sept)Age 21 (March)



PreschoolSchool-AgeExtended



Sheet2

Sheet3

Rates of High School Completion by GroupsNote. Adjusted for gender, race, family risk index, follow-on participation, and CPC sites.

High School Completion Categories by GroupGraduationGED

Benefit-Cost AnalysisBenefit CategoriesSchool Remedial ServicesReduced Costs of Special Education ServicesReduced Expenditures for Extra Schooling for Retained StudentsChild Welfare SystemReduced Treatment and Administrative CostsCost savings to VictimsJuvenile Court and Treatment CostsReduced Administrative CostsReduced Costs of Juvenile TreatmentSavings to Crime Victims

Benefit Categories (cont.)Adult Courts and TreatmentsReduced Administrative CostsReduced Costs of TreatmentSavings to Crime VictimsLife Time Earnings Capacity (Projected from HS Completion)Increased Earnings Through Age 65Increased Tax Revenues to Governments

Program Costs Per Participant vs. Selected Yearly Costs (1998)Preschool ($6,692) vs. Special education, $7,791School-age ($2,981) vs. Juvenile institution, $32,237Extended ($10,000) vs. Child welfare services, $9,492

Major Categories of Costs in the Chicago Child-Parent Centers: Preschool and School-Age Components (1998 dollars)

Procedures and Examples1. Estimate the program effect(Example: .70 fewer years in special ed)2. Convert to 1998 dollars (Example: $7,791 (i.e., adjust for inflation))3. Estimate benefit at the time of program entry (age 3) using an annual discount rate of 3% (Example: $5,971)

This is the Present Value of Benefits in 1998 dollars.The Program Economic Benefit Per Participant is .7 (5,971) = $4,180.

Summary of CBA Findings Per ParticipantNote. Present value in 1998 dollars discounted at 3%

Benefits of CPC Preschool by Category

Estimated Benefits and Costs: Preschool

anyprekcba

-6692

4180

692

20517

7243

-557

7130

6127

770

1657

Sources of Savings or Costs

Present Value in Thousands (1998 $ discounted at 3 %)

Sheet1

Program($6,692)

Special education$4,180

Grade retention$692

Lifetime earnings$20,517

Taxes on earnings$7,243

College tuition($557)

Justice system$7,130

Crime victims$6,127

Abuse and neglect$770

Child care$1,657

Sheet2

Sheet3

Estimated Benefits and Costs: School-Age

anyprekcba

-6730

4180

692

20517

7243

-557

7130

6127

770

1657


Present Value in Thousands (1998 $ Discounted at 3 %)

Estimated Benefits and Costs of the Preschool Program

schoolagecba

-2981

2866

472

732

259

-20

0

431

204

0

$0

$0



Sheet1

Program($6,730)Program($2,981)

Special education$4,180Special education$2,866

Grade retention$692Grade retention$472

Lifetime earnings$20,517Lifetime earnings$732

Taxes on earnings$7,243Taxes on earnings$259

College tuition($557)College tuition($20)

Justice system$7,130Justice system$0

Crime victims$6,127Crime victims$431

Abuse and neglect$770Abuse and neglect$204

Childcare$1,657Child care$0

Sheet2

Sheet3

Estimated Benefits and Costs: Extended

anyprekcba

-6730

4180

692

20517

7243

-557

7130

6127

770

1657



Estimated Benefits and Costs of the Preschool Program

schoolagecba

-2981

2866

472

732

259

-20

0

431

204

0



Estimated Benefits and Costs of the School-Age Program

extcba

-4057

4001

467

8610

3040

-234

3025

3737

480

1646



Sheet1

Program($6,730)Program($2,981)

Special education$4,180Special education$2,866

Grade retention$692Grade retention$472

Lifetime earnings$20,517Lifetime earnings$732

Taxes on earnings$7,243Taxes on earnings$259

College tuition($557)College tuition($20)

Justice system$7,130Justice system$0

Crime victims$6,127Crime victims$431

Abuse and neglect$770Abuse and neglect$204

Child care$1,657Child care$0

Program($4,057)

Special education$4,001

Grade retention$467

Lifetime earnings$8,610

Taxes on earnings$3,040

College tuition($234)

Justice system$3,025

Crime victims$3,737

Abuse and neglect$480

Child care$1,646

Sheet2

Sheet3

Government and Participants Savings

Chart1

73.67

1.581.34

2.421.38

Total Benefit

Public Benefit

Present Value of Benefits Per Dollar Invested ($)

Benefits to Costs Ratios for CPC Program Components

7.00

Sheet1


Total Benefit71.582.42

Public Benefit3.671.341.38

Chart2

46.1

41.1

12.8

Sources of Benefits of the CPC Preschool Program

47.5%

11.2%

42.3%

Chart3

41.1

43.8

15.1

Sources of Benefits of the CPC Extended Preschool Program

Chart4

24.8

36.9

23

13.3

3.9

Sources of Savings to Government of the CPC Preschool Program

Chart5

41.2

28

17.7

10.2

4.4

Sources of Savings to Government of the CPC Extended Preschool Program

37%

Chart6

46.1

41.1

12.8

Sources of Societal Savings for the CPC Preschool Program

Chart7

41.1

43.8

15.1


Sheet2

Program Participants46.1

Government Savings41.1

Crime Victims12.8


Government Savings43.8

Crime Victims15.1

School Remedial Services41.224.8

Tax Revenues2836.9

Juvenile Justice System17.723

Adult Justice System10.213.3

Child Welfare System4.43.9

Sheet3

Benefit to Cost Ratios for 3 Measures of Participation

Chart1

7.143.85

1.661.42

6.113.6

Total Benefit

Public Benefit

Present Value of Benefits Per Dollar Invested ($)

Sheet1


Total Benefit7.1401.666.11

Public Benefit3.851.423.6

Chart2

47.5

42.3

11.2

Sources of Benefits of the CPC Preschool Program

47.5%

11.2%

42.3%

Chart3

52.1

36.3

11.6

Sources of Benefits of the CPC Extended Preschool Program

Chart4

24.2

30.3

29.9

13

2.3

Sources of Savings to Government of the CPC Preschool Program

Chart5

40.6

23.3

32.2

10.1

2.9


37%

Sheet2


General Public42.3

Crime Victims11.2


General Public36.3

Crime Victims11.6

School Remedial Services40.624.2

Tax Revenues23.330.3

Juvenile Justice System32.229.9

Adult Justice System10.113

Child Welfare System2.92.3

Sheet3

Sensitivity of Estimated Total and General Public Benefits and Cost of the Preschool program

Sensitivity of Estimated Total and General Public Benefits and Cost of the Extended Program

Benefit-Cost Ratios for Total Benefit of 4 ProgramsNotes: 1) High/Scope Perry Preschool cost benefit amounts are in 1992 dollars; discounted at 3%. Benefits include averted intangible crime victim costs. 2) Chicago Child Parent Center (CPC) cost benefit amounts are in 1998 dollars; discounted at 3%. 3) Elmira PEIP cost benefit amounts are in 1996 dollars; discounted at 4%.

LISREL mediation model for high school completion, coefficients are standardized and adjusted for measurement errors

LISREL Mediation Model for Any Arrest Petition by Age 18, Coefficients are Standardized and Adjusted for Measurement ErrorsRMSEA= 0.052AGFI= 0.95

Percentage of Total Indirect Effect of Preschool Accounted for by Mediators

Implications of Chicago StudyEarly childhood programs are among the most effective preventive interventions. Evidence of benefit-cost analysis suggests the long-term payoff of such approaches.Length of program participation can matter as much as timing. Services should better reflect this principle.Implement intensive parent programs through staffed parent-resource rooms and emphasis on personal development and school participation.

Implications of Chicago Study (cont.)Focus enrichment on school readiness, especially language and literacy skills through relatively structured, activity-based approaches.Focus school-age programs on school organization and instructional resources through such elements as reduced class sizes and child-teacher ratios, and instructional coordination.Study the strengths and limitations of universal access to early care and education programs. Quality and effectiveness will depend on success inA. Coordinating services B. Recruiting and keeping well-trained staff C. Tailoring services to the needs of families.

For more information about the Chicago Longitudinal Study, contact:Arthur J. ReynoldsWaisman Center

University of Wisconsin-Madison1500 Highland AvenueMadison, WI 53705Telephone: 608-263-1847Fax: 608-262-3821

E-mail: [email protected] Site: www.waisman.wisc.edu/cls/

Documents

Some Facts about the Evaluation Literature