Situational Analysis: Peterborough & the Kawarthas · A situational analysis is frequently used as the basis for long term economic development plans since a good understanding of

Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis Toronto

Situational Analysis:Peterborough & the KawarthasFebruary 2018

Geospatial Data Analysis Group

Peterborough & the Kawarthas

ISBN: 978-1-989077-03-0c©2018 Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis

The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis provides objective, independent and evidence basedanalysis dedicated to a comprehensive and collaborative understanding of the short and long termrisks and returns behind policy decisions and prosperity outcomes.

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Contents

Contents

1 Introduction 11.1 Overview of Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 What is a Situational Analysis? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.3 Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2 Demographics 42.1 Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.2 Components of Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72.3 Dwellings and Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

3 Industry and Employment 103.1 Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103.2 Commuting and Place of Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.3 Location Quotients and Economic Base Analsysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133.4 Sector Shift Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4 Comparisons 174.1 Ontario Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174.2 Regional Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

5 Regional Forecast 205.1 Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205.2 Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

A Glossary 22

B Prosperity at Risk 24

Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis Toronto iii


List of Figures

1.1 Location of Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2.1 Population by age and sex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.2 Population density 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.3 Change in population and population density . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82.4 Dwellings and household structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

3.1 Employed residents by sector and occupation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113.2 Sector share of employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123.3 Place of work for residents of Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133.4 Commuting flows into and out of Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . . 133.5 Industry location quotient relative to Ontario and nationally . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143.6 Occupation location quotient relative to Ontario and nationally . . . . . . . . . . . . 153.7 Sector strengths relative to Ontario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153.8 Industry sector summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

5.1 Population forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215.2 Employment forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

B.1 Connections between people and households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25B.2 Connections between a single company and households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

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List of Tables

List of Tables

1.1 Characteristics of Peterborough & the Kawarthas in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2.1 Total population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas and its census subdivisions . . . 42.2 Population by age group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52.3 Components of population growth from 2001 to 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3.1 Overview of employed residents in Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . 103.2 Overview of estimated jobs in Peterborough & the Kawarthas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

4.1 Comparison of Peterborough & the Kawarthas to Ontario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174.2 Comparison of Peterborough & the Kawarthas and selected census divisions (CDs) . 19

Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis Toronto v

1. Introduction

Chapter 1

1. Introduction

1.1 Overview of Peterborough & the Kawarthas

The region of Peterborough & the Kawarthas encompasses 3,848 sq km in Ontario (Figure 1.1).

It consists of 11 census subdivisions (CSDs) and 222 dissemination areas (DAs). Of the 141,357

people that resided in the region in 2016, 62,710 were employed. Across the 57,805 households in

the region, the median household income was $64,437. The median age in the region is 47.0 years

old which is greater than the Ontario median of 41.3. The largest employment for residents of the

region is within the health care and social assistance sector followed by the retail trade sector.

Some key statistics for Peterborough & the Kawarthas are summarized in Table 1.1. Chapter 2

examines the demographics of the region and investigates the factors driving demographic changes

and where people are living. Chapter 3 delves into the industry and employment of Peterborough &

the Kawarthas including examining the economic base, sector shifts and commuting flows. Chapter

4 benchmarks Peterborough & the Kawarthas against similar regions across Canada while Chapter

5 provides some forecasts for the region.

1.2 What is a Situational Analysis?

A situational analysis examines the characteristics of a region relative to its surrounding region and

other comparable regions in a variety of metrics across demographics and industry. This report is

designed to provide a detailed understanding of the population and economy of Peterborough & the

Table 1.1: Characteristics of Peterborough & the Kawarthas in 2016

Value

Land area (sq. km) 3,848Number of census subdivisions 11Number of dissemination areas 222Total population 141,357Number of households 57,805Average household size 2.45Median age 47.0Median household income $64,437

Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis Toronto 1


Figure 1.1: Peterborough & the Kawarthas is indicated by the red outline.Darker regions correspond to higher population density.

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1. Introduction

Kawarthas relative to Ontario and other regions. A situational analysis is frequently used as the

basis for long term economic development plans since a good understanding of today’s population

and economy is required in order to design effective strategies for the future.

1.3 Data Sources

The results in this analysis are based on Statistics Canada Census data from 2001 to 2016 along

with data from CANSIM, Statistics Canada’s key socioeconomic database. In addition, all indi-

vidual data sources are reconciled into a single Canada-wide consistent dataset using Prosperity at

Risk (PaR), Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA)’s agent-based data analysis and

simulation platform. PaR generates a list of representative individual people and companies across

the country with links between individuals, their household members, and their employers such

that they are consistent with all of the available cross-sectional tables. This allows detailed analysis

of households, industry, and the overall economy while ensuring consistency of all aspects of the

dataset. For example, it is not possible to have an employee in the industry data view without

a corresponding individual in the demographic view. All figures and tables in this were report

generated by CANCEA based on reconciled data. Refer to Appendix B for more details on PaR.

The geo-spatial structure of the analysis is based on Statistics Canada Standard Geographic

Classification system. It is a hierarchical system where each region is subdivided repeated into

smaller regions. The hierarchy consists of:

1. Province and Territories

2. census division (CD): Each province is divided into census divisions. There are 293 census

divisions across the country.

3. CSD: Each census division is further divided into census subdivisions.

4. DA: Each census subdivision is divided into dissemination areas. Each DA is constructed so

that they have approximately equal populations with about 600 people per DA.



Chapter 2

2. Demographics

The demographics of a region drive both its character and its economy. Understanding the similari-

ties and differences in the demographics between Peterborough & the Kawarthas and Ontario helps

to understand the current and future evolution of the region. Section 2.1 examines the population

of Peterborough & the Kawarthas in greater detail, with Section 2.2 presenting the components

driving the changes in population. Finally, Section 2.3 examines the structure of households in the

region and the type of dwellings households inhabit.

2.1 Population

The total population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas in 2016 was 141,357 which is distributed

across 11 CSDs and 222 DAs. Table 2.1 summarizes the population across the region from 2001

to 2016. The largest CSD is Peterborough with a 2016 population of 82,847 which is 58.6% of the

entire region. Overall, the region has increased by 10,498 since 2001, a 8.0% increase. This is less

than the provincial change of 17.5% over the same period.

Figure 2.1 shows the age and sex distribution of the population in Peterborough & the Kawarthas

(filled regions) along with the corresponding Ontario distribution scaled to the same total population

Table 2.1: Total population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas and its censussubdivisions

2001 2006 2011 2016

Asphodel-Norwood 4,118 4,380 4,137 4,213Cavan Monaghan 8,829 9,117 8,789 9,039Curve Lake First Nation 35 1,001 1,094 1,023 1,089Douro-Dummer 6,920 7,251 6,913 6,866Havelock-Belmont-Methuen 4,555 4,836 4,569 4,627Hiawatha First Nation 304 0 344 383North Kawartha 2,236 2,446 2,369 2,521Otonabee-South Monaghan 6,874 7,180 6,830 6,831Peterborough 74,611 77,891 80,981 82,847Selwyn 16,913 17,873 17,239 17,455Trent Lakes 4,497 5,494 5,299 5,552

Peterborough & the Kawarthas 130,859 137,560 138,494 141,423

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2. Demographics

Figure 2.1: Population distribution in 2016 by age and sex. The grey lines in-dicate the provincial distribution scaled to the same population as Peterborough& the Kawarthas.

Table 2.2: Population by age group



Figure 2.2: Population density 2016

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2. Demographics

Table 2.3: Components of population growth from 2001 to 2016

2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 Total

Births 5,454 5,945 6,787 18,186Deaths -6,570 -6,758 -7,152 -20,480Immigrants 1,275 1,199 1,183 3,657Emigrants -1,036 -846 -831 -2,713Net migration from Ontario 3,996 3,727 4,103 11,826Other migration 3,582 -2,333 -1,227 22

Total 6,701 934 2,863 10,498

for comparison. Within Peterborough & the Kawarthas, the median age is 47.0 years old. This is

5.7 years greater than the Ontario median of 41.3. The single largest cohort of residents within the

region is the group of 20 to 24 year olds in Peterborough with 6,304 people. However, within each

CSD the greatest concentration of people are the 60 to 64 year olds in Trent Lakes with 12.8% of

the CSD’s population. Across Ontario, the largest cohort are those aged 50 to 54.

As shown in Figure 2.2, the population density across Peterborough & the Kawarthas varies

considerably with a peak population density, measured at the DA level, of 20,816 people per square

kilometer1 and a minimum of 2.0 people per square kilometer (excluding DAs with no reported

residents). The average population density across the entire region (3,848 square kilometers) is 36.7

people per square kilometer.

2.2 Components of Population Growth

Since 2001, the population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas has increased by 10,498 people.

However, as shown in Figure 2.3, the change in population has not been uniform across the region.

In areas with less new development, the population tends to shrink (red regions in the Figure) as

children leave their parent’s household to form their own or members of existing households die.

This occurs both in the less-dense regions in Peterborough & the Kawarthas as well as in the city

centres. In contrast, in areas with more development attract greater population (green regions in

the Figure) whether through international immigration or moving from other parts of Ontario or

Canada. Some DAs have increased by 1,420 people while others have decreased by 346. As each

of the DAs are different sizes, the change in population density has also not be uniform. Some

DAs have increased by 3,006 people per square kilometer compared to decreases of 1,003 people per

square kilometer in others. As shown in Table 2.3, the most signficant contributor to net population

growth has been the death of residents. However, this decrease in population has been outweighted

by the combination of births and migration into the region to result in net increase in population.

1Note that this is the peak density and occurs for a DA with an area much less than 1 square kilometer. As aresult, the population density is greater than the number of people living in the DA.



Figure 2.3: Change in population and population density between 2001 and2016 by DA

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2. Demographics

Figure 2.4: Dwellings and household structure

(a) Family structure by tenure (b) Types of dwellings by tenure

2.3 Dwellings and Households

In 2016, there were 57,805 households in Peterborough & the Kawarthas with an average size of

2.45 people per household. Of the households, the most common are couple households (with or

without children) with 30,940 households. Of these households, 86.0% own their place of residence

while the remainder rent (See Figure 2.4a). In contrast, 45.2% of single person households (or other

non-family households) rent. Overall, 73.0% of households in Peterborough & the Kawarthas own

their dwellings. This is greater than the Ontario average of 69.7%.

As shown in 2.4b, the vast majority of dwellings in Peterborough & the Kawarthas are single

detached houses (72.2% of all dwellings).



Chapter 3

3. Industry and Employment

The industry mix of a region is important to support current residents and as an attractor for

future growth. The employment of residents can be viewed from two primary perspectives which

are sector of employment (based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS))

and type of occupation (based on the National Occupational Classification (NOC)). These two

perspectives provide contrasting views to employment by distinguishing the sector in which an

employee works and the role that person performs within the sector. For example, a person may

work in the manufacturing sector but perform a sales role.

3.1 Employment

Of the 141,357 residents in Peterborough & the Kawarthas, 62,710 were employed in 2016. This

is 58.3% of the population over 15 years old. This is less than the Ontario percent of 61.0%.

Table 3.1 shows the number of employed residents for each census subdivision in Peterborough &

the Kawarthas. While the population has increased by 8.0% since 2001, the number of employed

residents has increased by 29.5%. However, it is important to note that an employed resident is

not the same as a job in the region. A person may reside in Peterborough & the Kawarthas, but

commute to a nearby region. Table 3.2 shows the estimated number of jobs which exist in each

Table 3.1: Overview of employed residents in Peterborough & the Kawarthas

2001 2006 2011 2016

Asphodel-Norwood 1,524 2,156 1,839 1,945Cavan Monaghan 3,268 4,487 3,907 4,365Curve Lake First Nation 35 370 538 455 365Douro-Dummer 2,561 3,569 3,073 3,350Havelock-Belmont-Methuen 1,686 2,380 2,031 1,710Hiawatha First Nation 112 0 153 150North Kawartha 828 1,204 1,053 1,005Otonabee-South Monaghan 2,544 3,534 3,036 3,460Peterborough 27,616 38,337 35,999 36,030Selwyn 6,260 8,797 7,663 7,975Trent Lakes 1,665 2,704 2,356 2,355


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Table 3.2: Overview of estimated jobs in Peterborough & the Kawarthas

2001 2006 2011 2016

Asphodel-Norwood 864 1,561 1,324 1,210Cavan Monaghan 1,638 2,907 5,537 3,395Curve Lake First Nation 35 261 408 365 270Douro-Dummer 726 1,514 993 1,545Havelock-Belmont-Methuen 1,361 1,730 2,031 1,490Hiawatha First Nation 71 0 118 100North Kawartha 578 1,014 1,053 830Otonabee-South Monaghan 1,164 1,917 1,254 2,245Peterborough 35,200 47,256 44,051 44,625Selwyn 3,087 5,289 4,678 5,490Trent Lakes 950 1,759 2,356 1,315


Figure 3.1: Employed residents of Peterborough & the Kawarthas by industrysector and occupation



Figure 3.2: Sector share of employment for residents of Peterborough & theKawarthas and Ontario

subdivision in Peterborough & the Kawarthas. Section 3.2 examines the commuting patterns in

greater detail.

The largest employment for residents of Peterborough & the Kawarthas is within the health

care and social assistance sector with 9,195 people working in that sector, followed by the retail

trade sector. From an occupation point of view, the largest group are sales and service occupations

with 15,715 people. In Ontario, the largest sector, in terms of employees, is retail trade with the

largest occupation being sales and service occupations. Figure 3.1 shows the complete distribution

of employment of residents by sector and occupation for Peterborough & the Kawarthas.

As shown in Figure 3.2, since 2001 the share of employment in manufacturing has decreased

from 11.5% of the employed residents to 7.6%, a 34.0% decrease. In Ontario, it has decreased from

17.3% to 9.9%, a 43.1% change. In constrast, the share of employment in construction has gone

from 4.1% to 8.3%. Figure 3.2 shows how the sector share of employment has shifted from 2001 to

2016 in Peterborough & the Kawarthas and in Ontario.

3.2 Commuting and Place of Work

As shown in Figure 3.3, the majority of the residents of Peterborough & the Kawarthas (79.4%)

have a usual place of work which is less than the Ontario percentage of 81.5%. Approximately

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Figure 3.3: Place of work for residents of Peterborough & the Kawarthas

Figure 3.4: Commuting flows into and out of Peterborough & the Kawarthas

8.2% of employed resident work at home and while 12.5% have no fixed place of work (which could

include jobs like construction where work is performed at different sites). This is compared to

7.3% who work at home and 11.2% who have no fixed place of work in Ontario. Of the those with

a usual place of work, 13.4% (6,635 people) commute to areas outside of the region (Figure 3.4).

However, a total of 6,440 people commute into the region. The net result is that there are estimated

to be 62,515 in the region, which is 195 less than the number of employed residents. As a result,

Peterborough & the Kawarthas has a fairly balanced flow of commuters.

The most common destination for commuters is Durham with 2,070 people commuting to jobs

there. In the other direction, the most common origin for commuters into the region is Kawartha

Lakes with 2,880 people arriving for work.

3.3 Location Quotients and Economic Base Analsysis

The location quotient is a measure of the concentration of an industry (or other economic measure)

relative to a larger region such as its province or country. Economic base analysis identifies the

basic (or export) industries in the region by examining the location quotient to determine which

sectors are providing a greater economic activity that what would be indicated by the provincial or



Figure 3.5: Industry location quotient relative to Ontario and nationally. Val-ues greater than 1 indicate a concentration of that industry relative to Ontarioand Canada.

national averages.

As shown in Figure 3.5, relative to the province and country, Peterborough & the Kawarthas

has a greater concentration employees working in sectors of:

• Utilities

• Health care and social assistance

• Construction

• Arts, entertainment and recreation

• Admin and support, waste mgmt services

• Retail trade

• Educational services

• Other services (except public administration), and

• Accommodation and food services

These industry sectors employ more than the Ontario economy suggests and as a result likely

provide a net inflow of value into the region. A similar analysis can be undertaken for the types of

occupations that employees in Peterborough & the Kawarthas perform. Relative to the province

and country, Peterborough & the Kawarthas has a greater concentration employees working in:

• Health occupations

• Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occ.

• Occ. in education, law and social, community and gov. services, and

• Sales and service occupations

Figure 3.6 summaries the remainder of the occupations in the region.

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Figure 3.6: Occupation location quotient relative to Ontario and nationally

Figure 3.7: Sector strengths relative to Ontario

3.4 Sector Shift Analysis

While the location quotient examines the economy at a point in time, the sector shift analysis

examines how various industry sectors in Peterborough & the Kawarthas are evolving relative to

Ontario. Stronger sectors in the region may be reflected by the share in employment growing faster

than surrounding regions, or decreasing less quickly if there are structural changes to the broader

economy underway. The strongest sector in Peterborough & the Kawarthas is manufacturing, which

has increased its share of employment by 1.1% more than the overall trends in Ontario over the

last decade. Figure 3.7 shows the relative strength of the various industry sectors in the region.

The location quotient and sector shift analysis can be combined to highlight which industry

sectors in Peterborough & the Kawarthas are performing better than in Ontario overall. The

upper-right quadrant of Figure 3.8 show the sectors which are both base industries and growing

(relative to the Ontario trends). These industries include:

• Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction



Figure 3.8: Industry sector summary

• Health care and social assistance

• Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting

• Arts, entertainment and recreation

• Admin and support, waste mgmt services

• Retail trade

• Other services (except public administration)

In contrast, in the upper-left quadrant, are industries which currently have a lower location quotient,

but with a share of employment that has been performing better than in Ontario overall. These

industry sectors include:

• Manufacturing

• Wholesale trade

• Public administration

The lower-right quadrant are those with high location quotients, but are shrinking in significance

to the local economy. Such industry include the utilities sector. Finally, the lower-left quandrant

are those industries, such as professional, scientific and technical services which are non-base and

not performing as well as in Ontario overall.

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4. Comparisons

Chapter 4

4. Comparisons

Comparison of Peterborough & the Kawarthas to similar regions and Ontario provides a benchmark

to understand how Peterborough & the Kawarthas is evolving relative to its peers. Section 4.1

compares key trends in Peterborough & the Kawarthas to Ontario, while Section 4.2 compares the

region to similar regions from across the country.

4.1 Ontario Comparison

Table 4.1 highlights many of the key similarities and differences between Peterborough & the

Kawarthas and Ontario. The population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas has been growing

more slowly that Ontario. However, the number of employed residents has been increasing faster.

The median household income in Peterborough & the Kawarthas is 13.3% less than Ontario. As

shown earlier in Figure 3.2, the fraction of employment for many types of employment is similar to

Ontario, but signficant differences exist in key industry sectors such as manufacturing and health

case and social assistance.

Table 4.1: Comparison of Peterborough & the Kawarthas to Ontario

Characteristic Peterborough Ontario

Population 141,357 13,982,984Average population density (per sq. km) 36.7 15.4Median age 47.0 41.3Average household size 2.45 2.71Median household income $64,437 $74,287Employment rate (age 15+) 58.3% 61.0%Population growth (2001 to 2016) 8.0% 17.5%Employment growth (2001 to 2016) 29.5% 25.8%

4.2 Regional Comparisons

Table 4.2 highlights many of the key similarities and differences between Peterborough & the

Kawarthas and other CDs across Ontario and Canada. (Note that Peterborough & the Kawarthas

is repeated in each row for easier comparison.) Peterborough & the Kawarthas tends to have a



lower median income than many of the comparator regions but does have a relatively high median

age. As was shown in Figure 2.1, the age distribution tends to be quite bi-modal with a larger

number of people over 65 and around aged 20 to 25. The population growth of the region has been

slower than most of the comparator regions, with the exception being the Algoma regions which

has experienced a population decline.

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4. Comparisons

Table 4.2: Comparison of Peterborough & the Kawarthas and selected CDs

Peterborough Toronto Ottawa MiddlesexCharacteristic Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario

Population 141,357 2,876,095 973,481 475,881Average population density (per sq. km) 36.7 4563.8 348.9 143.5Median age 47.0 39.3 40.1 40.3Average household size 2.45 2.58 2.60 2.50Median household income $64,437 $65,829 $85,981 $64,797Employment rate (age 15+) 58.3% 62.1% 64.3% 57.0%Population growth (2001 to 2016) 8.0% 11.3% 20.6% 12.8%Employment growth (2001 to 2016) 29.5% 2.5% 5.7% 18.7%

Peterborough Simcoe Wellington HastingsCharacteristic Ontario Ontario Ontario Ontario

Population 141,357 494,547 226,096 138,659Average population density (per sq. km) 36.7 101.8 85.0 22.7Median age 47.0 43.1 40.3 46.4Average household size 2.45 2.70 2.65 2.43Median household income $64,437 $76,489 $81,347 $61,109Employment rate (age 15+) 58.3% 66.8% 68.5% 61.8%Population growth (2001 to 2016) 8.0% 25.9% 16.0% 4.9%Employment growth (2001 to 2016) 29.5% 72.7% 32.8% 11.7%

Peterborough Hamilton Algoma Division No. 11Characteristic Ontario Ontario Ontario Saskatchewan

Population 141,357 561,022 116,201 324,871Average population density (per sq. km) 36.7 502.1 2.4 19.5Median age 47.0 41.5 49.0 35.9Average household size 2.45 2.65 2.28 2.73Median household income $64,437 $69,024 $58,664 $81,913Employment rate (age 15+) 58.3% 63.4% 51.9% 64.6%Population growth (2001 to 2016) 8.0% 10.0% -6.1% 33.7%Employment growth (2001 to 2016) 29.5% 37.5% 3.9% 43.9%



Chapter 5

5. Regional Forecast

Regional forecasts are generated using the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis’ agent-based

simulation platform, PaR. The simulation and analysis platform takes into account the intrinsic

uncertainty of how a region will evolve to estimate not only the most likely outcomes, but also the

range of possible outcomes. Note that the forecasts assume no significant changes in social policy

(such as national immigration rates) or transformative technological changes (such as wide-spread

adoption of automous vehicles).

5.1 Demographics

As shown in Figure 5.1 the population of Peterborough & the Kawarthas is expected to grow to

between 154,000 and 162,300 people by 2041 with an expected value of around 158,200 people.

The range of outcomes arises through the random nature of demographic processes such as birth,

deaths, and migration, coupled with the requirement that dwellings (houses or apartments) must

be build to accomodate the growing population. Even with the same number of dwellings, variation

in average household size can yield significant differences.

5.2 Employment

If employment preferences, such as retirement age and the likelihood of pursuing higher education

follow recent trends, Figure 5.2 shows the estimated number of employed residents in the region. By

2041, there would be around 68,300 employed residents on the region. The aging of the population

results in the average annual growth of employment (0.33%) being slower than that of the total

population (0.44%) over that time period.

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5. Regional Forecast

Figure 5.1: Population forecast for Peterborough & the Kawarthas. The shadedregion corresponds to the 95% confidence interval of the possible outcomes. Thedotted line indicated the beginning of the simulation.

Figure 5.2: Employment forecast for Peterborough & the Kawarthas. Theshaded region corresponds to the 95% confidence interval of the possible out-comes. The dotted line indicated the beginning of the simulation.



Appendix A

A. Glossary

CANCEA The Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis.

census division (CD) Each province and territory in Canada is subdivided into census division.

In 2016, there were 293 census divisions across Canada. Census divisions frequently align

with municipal boundaries. A census division is further divided into census subdivisions..

census subdivision (CSD) A census subdivision is third level of geographic census hierarchy

with over 5100 CSDs across Canada in 2016. A census subdivision is further divided into

dissemination areas (DAs). There are a total of See also census division (CD)..

dissemination area (DA) A dissemination area is fourth level of geographic census hierarchy

with over 56,000 CSDs across Canada in 2016. See also CD and census subdivision (CSD)..

economic base The economic base of a regions are those industries which export goods and

services outside of the region..

economic base analysis The process of identifying the industries which export goods or services

outside of the local economy. The location quotient is a primary means of identifying such

industries..

household A household is group of people living in a single dwelling. They may be related in a

census family or unrelated..

location quotient A location quotient is a statistic that measures a regions specialization relative

to a larger geographic region. It is calcualted as an industrys share of a regional total statistic

divided by the industrys share for the larger geographic region. A value greater than 1

indicated a higher than average share in the local region..

National Occupational Classification (NOC) National Occupational Classification.

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) North American Industry Clas-

sification System.

occupation According to the National Occupational Classification (NOC), an occupation refers

to the kind of work performed in a job, a job being all the tasks carried out by a particular

worker to complete his or her duties. An occupation is a set of jobs that are sufficiently similar

in work performed..

22

Glossary

population density Population density is calculated by taking the total population of a region

and dividing it by the region’s geographic area. Note that if the region’s area is less than 1

square kilometer, the density will be larger than the population residing in the region..

Prosperity at Risk (PaR) CANCEA’s agent-based simulation platform which incorporates in-

dividuals, households, industry and government for 56,000 regions across Canada..



Appendix B

B. Prosperity at Risk

The demographic and employment analysis was conducted using the Canadian Centre for Economic

Analysis’ Prosperity at Risk data analysis and simulation platform – a cutting-edge, ”big data” com-

puter simulation platform that incorporates social, health, economic, financial, and infrastructure

factors into a single system in order to serve Canadians policy interests. PaR is a unique, agent-

based simulation modeling platform, wherein agents (e.g., individuals, industries, governments and

non-residents) are modeled simultaneously as a complete system. These agents have a long list

of attributes and behavioural rules including demographic details, financial assets and liabilities,

household structure, and employment status. Within the analysis platform, agents interact with

each other, resources, the infrastructure, and the economy in accordance with their behavioural

rules. Prosperity at Risk (PaR) captures over 56,000 Canadian geographic areas that are linked

through population, dwellings, infrastructure, socioeconomic policy and industry development. As

the system evolves, agents make random choices based on distributions estimated historical be-

haviours or exogenous distributions. Due to the random nature of the behaviour decisions in the

platform, instead of a single value for a forecast, Prosperity at Risk yields a distribution allowing

an estimation of upper and lower bounds of all outputs.

The demographic and labour force model uses over 200 Statistics Canada tables, census mi-

crofile data, and extensive data cleaning algorithms in order to estimate long term behaviours of

individuals, governments and corporations in over 20 industry sectors.

Overall, the agent-based, event-driven micro-simulation platform unifies demographics, labour

force dynamics, government finances, private capital investment, and the complicated interdepen-

dencies of production to allow Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) to produce

detailed analyses of various scenarios. CANCEA was invited to present at the 2016 Canadian Eco-

nomics Association conference about how agent-based modeling presents a more realistic approach

for economic models and forecasts.

Demographic forecasts are a fundamental component of all of CANCEA’s projects. PaR is

capable of modeling the expected population growth in Canada, its provinces, and sub-regions for

both the short and long term. Within PaR, each resident of a region is a single agent. Each

person has numerous properties including birth date and sex. Each family is also treated as a

distinct agent in the system with associated family members. Depending on the family structure,

households could be single individuals, lone-parents, or couples (with or without children). This

approach allows consistent estimated of household properties such as family income by summing the

24

B. Prosperity at Risk

Figure B.1: Illustrative example of the connections between people and house-holds in PaR

income of its members while allowing decisions still to be made at both the individual and family

level. Finally, each family requires a dwelling in which to reside. Dwellings have fixed locations,

and are associated with families. (Note that it is possible to have multiple families residing in a

single dwelling.) Newly formed families require a dwelling in which to reside and new construction

can continue according to the local trends, demands, and constraints. Figure B.1 illustrates the

connections between people, families and dwellings.

PaR is capable of modelling the entire population of Canada with 34 million people (growing to

over 50 million by 2050) with their corresponding families and dwellings. Demographic processes

create agents, destroy agents, or alter the links between agents. The key demographic processes

include:

• Birth (based on fertility rates, family size, age, location, etc);

• Death (based on age, location, etc);

• Migration (based on age, location, employment, unemployment, etc); and

• Family Formation (based on age, location, etc).

Births create new agents in an existing family. Deaths will remove agents from an existing household

and also remove the family if there are no more members. (The dwelling then becomes vacant.)

Migration is applied at the family level by altering the links between families and dwellings. Finally,

family formation involves one person leaving an existing family to form a new family, and removal

of any families that result being empty. The demand for housing can then be estimated from

preference profiles for the modelled families.

The probability distributions for birth, death, and migration are based on a detailed analysis

of historical trends and factors. Other factors such as immigration policy, which would impact a

regions population now and into the future, are also considered. A characteristic of the platform is

the ability to perform sensitivity, scenario and policy intervention analysis. Different scenarios on



Figure B.2: Illustrative example of the connections between a single companyand households in PaR

population growth, agent movement, immigration policies, for example, can be undertaken within

PaR (international, provincial, and sub-regional). The platform is stochastic allowing estimates

of the upper and lower values of population and economic states to be obtained. Moreover, PaR

regularly goes through an extensive cross-model validation process to ensure that results could

be reproduced and are consistent with other projections, such as those produced by provincial

ministries or Statistics Canada. For example, aggregate demographic projections for Ontario and

its major regions align (within the stochastic bounds of the simulations) with Ontario Ministry of

Finance projections.

The basic demographic and housing model can be expanded by adding industry agents to the

platform which provide goods and services to the economy and employ people. Each employed

person has a link to one (or more in the case of part-time work) employer with an associated

wage. Sector-specific input-output tables are used to estimate the commodity dependency for each

industry agent to calculate the intermediate goods and labour required. As people age and retire

or migrate in the system, companies are required to hire new employees to maintain their level of

output. The probabilities of each behaviour are based on extensive analysis of historical Statistics

Canada industry and Labour Force Survey data. In addition, as consumer demand grows with the

population, additional employees might be required to meet the additional demand. Figure B.2

illustrates the connection between companies and employment in PaR.

It is important to note that PaR captures the regional variation in industry sectors across the

country and province. These regional difference play an important role in the growth of employment

demand in the forecasts.

26

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