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official sector activitiesh1 2013
august 2013
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taBle of coNteNts
Key Points 4
introduction 4
sales & Purchases by country 5
Gold lending Market 7
outlook for central Bank activity in the Gold Market 8
focus Box: Heavy cBGa sales Unlikely in the short term 9
appendix 10
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-
4h1 2013
KeY PoiNts Net official sector purchases dropped by 35% to
181 tonnes in the first half of 2013.
the decline was a result of a slowdown in gold purchases from
developing countries.
By contrast, gross official sector sales remained tiny in the
first half, as signatories to the Central Bank Gold agreement
(cBGa) once again were absent from the market.
Net central bank buying is expected to remain steady in the
second half of this year, with the full year total likely to reach
around 350 tonnes.
short-term leasing rates surged following the price crash in
mid-april, although this was not sufficient to encourage a major
rebound in gold lending from the official sector.
iNtrodUctioNthomson reuters GfMs estimates of the impact of
official sector activity on the gold market are based on a
combination of publicly available data and information collected
through field research. As there is often a lag between central
bank activity in the gold market taking place and this activity
being identified, so our estimates may be revised in future
updates. data in this report should therefore be viewed with this
caveat in mind.
after a rapid expansion of buy-side interest in recent years,
the pace of gold acquisitions from central banks moderated in the
first half of 2013. At the moment, our estimate shows that net
official sector purchases slowed to 181 tonnes over the six-month
timeframe, down by 35% year-on-year. That said, it should be
stressed that the absolute total was still elevated by historical
standards, especially taking into the fact that the official sector
was a persistent net seller in the gold market over 1989-2009.
the developing world continued to dominate the market,
accounting for nearly 90% of gross purchases over the first half of
2013. Among the drivers behind this apparent appetite for the
yellow metal, the key driving force remained the desire by emerging
nations to diversify their huge foreign exchange reserves. Given a
lack of sufficient
aBove-GroUNd stocKs of Gold
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Above-ground Stocks, end-June 2013 = 175,500t
Mine Production(2,818t)
Transformed/Transferred(4,030t)
*Includes bar investment, implied net investment and coins**
Excluding gold lent or supplied
Other Fabrication(453t)
Official Holdings**(30,300t)
Private Investment*(35,200t)
Jewellery(85,100t) Jewellery
(1,973t)
Unaccounted(3,600t)
Other Fabrication(21,400t)
Private Investment*(1,605t)
BacKGroUNd iNforMatioN
largely because gold was the basis of monetary systems since as
far back as the early part of the 18th century, it has continued to
comprise a significant portion of the official reserves of central
banks around the world (just over 11% at end-June 2013). according
to thomson reuters GfMs data, these holdings accounted for just
over 17% of total above-ground stocks of gold at end-June 2013. The
figure is equivalent to almost 12 years global mine production at
current levels.
The importance of official sector activity to the gold market
and to the price of the metal is therefore self-evident. Moreover,
history provides the evidence to support this. First of all, the
shift of the official sector from a broadly neutral position in the
1970s and 1980s to substantial net sales in the 1990s and 2000s was
a factor (among others) that resulted in gold prices falling well
below the $300 mark in the late 1990s. furthermore, the sharp rise
in central bank lending over the 1990s provided the liquidity
required by producers to establish hedge positions in gold, in a
decade when net producer hedging accounted for over 6% of annual
gold supply.
in recent years, however, the anti-gold climate that was
prevalent throughout the 1990s and in the early part of the 2000s
has come to an end. following a considerable decline in net central
bank sales in 2008 and 2009, the official sector shifted back to
the demand side of the gold market in 2010 (a case last seen in
1988), with net purchases estimated to have risen to a 48-year high
of 544 tonnes in 2012. this was boosted particularly by the
prolonged period of Us dollar weakness, the worsening sovereign
debt situation in developed countries and golds impressive
performance over the previous decade.
-
5h1 2013
improvements in fi scal consolidation and the persistence of
highly accommodative monetary policies in many advanced economies,
it is not surprising that some developing countries opted to
convert a small portion of their reserves into gold.
that said, it is interesting to note that the pace of offi cial
purchases from the developing world slowed notably in the fi rst
half of this year. To a large extent, this was due to golds
disappointing price performance and a sharp rise in volatility in
the second quarter. although price is not the key issue regarding
an institutions decision to augment its gold reserves, for some
potential buyers this consideration may well affect the timing of
any such purchases. this helps to explain a sharp fall in
open-market purchases by the offi cial sector year-to-date. By
contrast, purchases in the domestic market via acquisitions of
local mine production and/or scrap, such as those seen in the last
couple of years, remained steady in the fi rst half of 2013.
At the same time, the still high net purchase fi gure was also
underpinned by the continued absence of major disposals from
signatories to the central Bank Gold agreement (cBGa), with sales
from the group amounting to less than one tonne.
The offi cial sector also exerted signifi cant infl uence on the
price year-to-date. in particular, the trigger for the price crash
in mid-april was the news that the european commission had
suggested that cyprus sell gold reserves to raise 400 million
euros. While the countrys gold holdings (14 tonnes) are small, this
raised growing doubts about the independence of central banks and,
more importantly, fears about possible sales from other struggling
european countries where gold reserves are substantial.
sales & PUrcHases BY coUNtrYsales
gross sales from the offi cial sector remained trivial in the fi
rst half of 2013, with volumes amounting to no more than three
tonnes. this in part should be attributed to the ongoing absence of
sales from signatories to the cBGa. as the end of the penultimate
year of the third cBGa approaches, sales are set once again
massively to undershoot their 400-tonne annual quota. in addition,
as the gold price suffered from hefty losses in the fi rst six
months of the year, opportunistic sales from certain countries also
seem to have receded. as such, the bulk of gross sales was
comprised of marginal disposals from a limited number of countries
where sales of gold bullion seem to have been related to coin
minting programmes.
PUrcHases
gross purchases from central banks are estimated to have
totalled 183 tonnes in the fi rst six months of 2013. While the fi
gure was down by almost 40% on a year-on-year basis, it should be
stressed that this was against an exceptionally high base in 2012
and the absolute level in both quarters of this year remained well
in excess of that seen in the 1990s and 2000s. the major decline,
therefore, was by no means a collapse in appetite for gold from the
offi cial sector year-to-date.
Before looking at country-by-country breakdown, it is important
to emphasise that our gross fi gure does
cBGa aNd otHer PUrcHases & sales Net official sector
PUrcHases & salesCh3 Retail investment
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Q1-13Q1-12Q1-11Q1-10Q1-09Q1-08
Tonn
es
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, IMF*signatories to the Central
Bank Gold Agreements** all other countries
CBGA*
Rest of World**
Net Purchases
Net Sales
IMF on-market sales
Ch3 Retail investment
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
201220102008200620042002
Tonn
es
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, IMF
Net Purchases
Net Sales
-
6h1 2013
not include the 82-tonne net increase in turkish official gold
holdings. As we have discussed in previous reports, this rise has
been related to a change in the countrys legislation in late 2011,
which has since allowed local commercial banks to deposit their
gold holdings at the central banks account in order to exchange for
turkish lira liquidity.
Turning to announced purchasers within the official sector,
russia once again was the largest buyer, lifting its gold holdings
by another 39 tonnes over the first half of the year. Consistent
with the trend from previous years, these gold reserves were
accumulated via a series of regular acquisitions of local mine
production. By end-June 2013, the countrys official gold holdings
amounted to 996 tonnes, accounting for 7.4% of its international
reserves at the market price.
Buy-side interest was also apparent from a number of other cis
countries. Kazakhstan bought almost 16 tonnes of gold in the first
half of the year, through regular purchases of domestic gold
output. azerbaijan reported an eight-tonne increase in its gold
reserves over the same period. these purchases were made by the
countrys sovereign wealth fund, sofaZ, which is allowed to
investment up to 5% of its investment portfolio in gold. elsewhere,
modest purchases were also reported by ukraine, Belarus and
Tajikistan, who collectively bought four tonnes in the first
half.
south Korea raised its bullion holdings by 20 tonnes in March.
Since the country made its first purchase for more than a decade in
mid-2011, it had already lifted its gold reserves by 90 tonnes to
104 tonnes by end-May, although the metals share of total
international reserves remained trivial at 1.4%.
the balance of central bank buying in the public domain
consisted of small gains in gold reserves in a handful of
countries. the overwhelming majority of these purchases were made
by asian countries, including a six-tonne increase in nepals gold
reserves and a rise of fewer than two tonnes from a few countries
including mongolia, Brunei and indonesia.
Apart from the aforementioned buyers, over 40% of gross
purchases or some 70 tonnes were accounted for by undeclared
transactions, details of which cannot be released in respect of
confidentiality. In some cases, gold was added quietly in the local
market via purchases of mine production and/or scrap. While this
amount was somewhat smaller than that seen in the previous year, it
should be viewed within in the context of the exceptionally high
price volatility in the gold market in the first half of this year.
it is not surprising that certain reserve managers decided to
postpone their purchases to avoid short-term market volatility.
Gold & otHer reserves
0
20
40
60
80
100
WorldOtherChinaCBGAUSA
% o
f tot
al re
serv
es
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Other
Gold
at end-June 2013
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Yuan/gramm
e
toP 20 forex Holders
(country) Us$ bn Gold as of total reservesChina, P.R.: Mainland
3,442.6 1.5%Japan 1,176.3 2.4%Saudi Arabia 677.6 2.1%Switzerland
463.6 9.0%Russia 462.1 7.4%Taiwan 406.6 3.8%Brazil 359.6 0.7%South
Korea 317.4 1.4%China, P.R.: Hong Kong 305.6 0.0%Singapore 255.9
2.2%India 255.3 7.5%Algeria 189.2 3.9%Thailand 162.5 3.4%Mexico
157.4 2.8%Malaysia 131.9 1.0%Libya 116.8 4.2%Turkey 103.9
13.8%Poland 100.1 3.7%Indonesia 98.4 3.7%Denmark 78.7 3.0%source:
thomson reuters GfMs
-
7h1 2013
Gold leNdiNG MarKetthe cost of borrowing gold has posted a major
recovery so far this year. for instance, after spending much of
2009-2012 in negative territory, the one-month leasing rate turned
positive in february, rising to an average of 23 basis points in
July. To put it into perspective, this was the highest level since
late 2008 when heightened fears about counterparty risks following
the collapse of lehman Brothers led to a severe reduction in
lending.
such a notable rebound in borrowing costs year-to-date was
partly driven by a surge in physical demand since mid-april. as
mine production remained steady and scrap plunged, the shortage of
physical gold and rising premia in many regional markets provided a
strong incentive to borrow gold. also of importance though has been
a rapid expansion of short positions in recent months which also
raised investor demand for borrowed gold.
Nevertheless, despite a decent recovery in leasing rates
year-to-date, growth in lending from the official sector seems to
have been very limited, with fresh interest only appearing on the
very short-term end of the time spectrum, in order to earn some
extra yield. Moreover, concerns about counterparty risks seem also
to have deterred many countries from entering the gold lending
market. illustrative of this trend was the decision by the
Bundesbank last year to repatriate a large portion of its gold
holdings stored in overseas vaults. Nevertheless, a reasonably high
proportion of outstanding gold loans from central banks are on a
multi-year basis and so a relatively small percentage is maturing
in any given period.
looking ahead, we expect that the continued healthy physical
demand in the key asian markets will keep leasing rates in positive
territory. that said, although somewhat higher than the ultra-low
levels they were in recent years, rates are expected to remain
contained in the short to medium term. after all, there remains an
abundance of central bank liquidity on the sidelines of the market,
part of which would be mobilised if rates were to grow
sufficiently, this factor essentially putting a cap on any
potential increases for the time being.
in the longer term, this picture could change. although
producers have so far remained resistant to hedging as a strategy
for preserving revenue, as the price is projected to weaken further
in the coming years, net producer hedging could eventually again
appear on the supply side. such a new drain on liquidity for gold
could well mean that lease rates will eventually register material
increases, which could encourage a growing number of central banks
to lend gold into the market.
Gold leasiNG rates Gold leasiNG rates - Historical
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2013201120092007200520032001
%
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
3-month
1-month
12-month
Net ProdUcer (de-)HedGiNG
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
13.Q111.Q109.Q107.Q105.Q103.Q1
Tonn
es
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
Supply Gold Price
200
600
1000
1400
1800
Demand
US$/oz
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
JulAprJan-13OctJulAprJan-12
%
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS
3-month
1-month
12-month
-
8h1 2013
oUtlooK for ceNtral BaNK activitY iN tHe Gold MarKetthe more
cautious attitude towards gold among reserves managers year-to-date
has led us to review our views on the outlook for the official
sector, to allow for a larger decline in net central bank buying
than initially had been expected for this year overall. that said,
central banks in aggregate are expected to remain a major buyer of
the yellow metal, with their net purchases likely to stay steady at
roughly 70-100 tonnes per quarter for the rest of the year.
considering the detailed discussion of various institutions
future activities, although the majority of the points made in the
previous edition of this report remain broadly valid, it is worth
iterating and updating them with data based on more recent
information.
starting with signatories to the cBGa, disposals from the group
are expected to remain tiny in the short term. despite potential
gold disposals from cyprus, we do not believe that any such sale
would lead to larger-scale offloading from other indebted European
countries. This is firstly because any money raised would be far
too small relative to outstanding debt levels and, secondly, the
scope for such operations to panic the bond and foreign exchange
markets could render the exercise counterproductive (see focus box
on page 9).
turning to countries outside the cBGa, this group is forecast to
remain net buyers for the rest of the year, as the argument for
reserves diversification will remain in place in the short to
medium term. Benefiting from still relatively high commodity prices
and trade surpluses generated by export sectors, foreign exchange
reserves held by the developing world have continued to hit
successive record highs in recent years. Basis the latest iMf
statistics, almost 85% of known reserve portfolios reported by
emerging and developing countries were held in the dollar and euro
at end-March 2013. The first is a currency that had been on a
declining trend for much of the 2000s and the second is a currency
that remained very much in the grips of an ongoing sovereign debt
issue and dire economic conditions.
looking ahead, even though improving yields on Us treasuries
year-to-date have reduced the yellow metals appeal, there is much
greater appreciation today of its unique property as a financial
asset that is nobody elses liability, especially in the aftermath
of the financial and sovereign debt crisis. More importantly, even
if the fed starts to scale back its asset purchase programmes later
this year, this will be a long and gradual exit, as the United
states underlying economy is still fragile and inflation pressure
has stayed moderate. as such, we expect very loose monetary
policies to remain in place for an extended period and the low
interest environment could persist throughout 2015.
in addition, the persistence of the debt crisis in the eurozone
and further monetary loosening by other major central banks, Japan
in particular, may well keep yields on highly-rated sovereign bonds
at extremely low levels for an extended period. These developments
are likely to erode confidence in fiat currencies, which should in
turn continue to encourage developing countries to reallocate a
portion of their reserves in favour of gold.
However, it is worth stressing that we expect central banks as a
whole to maintain their current pace of acquisitions, as the
limited size of the gold market (especially compared with some
countries foreign exchange reserves) means that the process of
portfolio diversification will remain slow. Meanwhile, the scope
for potential political difficulties from any major purchase in the
international market at a time when confidence in the bond market
is still fragile may well restrict volumes bought by developing
countries. We would expect, instead, further discreet and modestly
sized operations to be carried out in the international market,
coupled with the purchase of local mine supply by some countries
where domestic mine production is available.
finally, we would admit that our forecast could be somewhat
conservative, given the relatively high level of purchases seen in
the past two years. the greatest risk to it in our view is that
strategic acquisitions could be much higher than we project,
especially if there is a severe loss of confidence in the major
international reserve currencies or if certain central banks take
advantage of low prices once greater price stability is restored in
the gold market. such an outcome would of course be highly positive
for the gold price, both in terms of its direct impact on golds
supply/demand balance and through the boost it would give to
investor sentiment.
-
9h1 2013
HeavY cBGa sales
UNliKelY iN tHe sHort
terM
The official sector, which currently accounts for some 17% of
global above-ground stocks of gold, has been an important focus for
the market, given its impact on investor sentiment towards gold and
the historical pressure for fundamental changes to the
international financial system.
for instance, during the 1990s, the bear market in gold was
influenced to no small extent by the perception, and to a large
extent the reality, of a supply shock from the official sector. In
particular, the news on 7th May 1999 that the United Kingdom
intended to sell 58% of its gold reserves was a hammer blow to
price expectations that had already suffered from a series of
negative announcements supporting iMf and Swiss sales. But of far
greater significance to price expectations was the joint policy
statement by 15 european central banks on 26th september 1999 (the
start of the first Central Bank Gold Agreement) to the effect that
they had decided to cap their collective sales in the following
five-year period and to limit lending and other activity to
prevailing levels. this was widely viewed as being very bullish for
gold, as the agreement removed a great deal of uncertainty from the
market, by formalising the sale of a large chunk of central bank
bullion reserves. indeed, despite heavy disposals from european
countries over much of the 2000s, this did not prevent the gold
price from moving sharply higher, as the risk of uncoordinated
dumping of european gold holdings onto the market was
eliminated.
after reaching a peak in 2005, sales from the cBGa group have
fallen dramatically thereafter before dropping to almost
non-existent levels since the start of the third agreement on 27th
september 2009. Nevertheless, the dramatic price decline in
mid-april following the european commissions proposal to sell just
ten tonnes of Cypriot official gold reserves clearly illustrated
how developments in the official sector could spook an already
nervous market. cyprus itself was arguably irrelevant, given its
tiny gold reserves; the key to its palpable impact on sentiment was
that it suggested that the turmoil in the euro area could lead to a
position whereby politicians could start to hold sway over southern
european central banks, where gold reserves are substantial.
technically this interference with the Bank of cyprus is
prohibited in the european Union, which enshrines central bank
independence in the treaties of rome and of Maastricht and backs
that up by article seven of the Protocol of the european system of
central Banks and of the european central Bank. central bankers are
the custodians of a nations gold and its monetary role. The use of
gold for fiscal purposes is not permitted as it suggests overt
political influence on the central bank in question. furthermore,
given the elevated level of sovereign debt held by the european
peripheral countries, such gold sales would make an extremely
limited contribution towards solving the problem. taking italy as
an example, despite being the worlds fourth largest official gold
holder, the value of its gold reserves was only equivalent to $94
billion at June-2013 (74.7 billion), against outstanding debt of
around 1.685 trillion.
looking ahead, we remain of the view that sales from the cBGa
group will remain trivial for the remainder of the third agreement.
as has been discussed in previous editions of this report, the
probable lack of interest among cBGa members in launching new gold
sales should be viewed within the context of the considerable
decline in the blocs bullion holdings since the late 1990s. indeed,
we would argue that those who were inclined to cut gold reserves
may have already done so in the last decade. Meanwhile, golds price
performance in recent years has also seen certain central banks
become more gold-friendly. Moreover, even though it is fair to say
that the worst of the debt crisis has passed, investor confidence
in the European peripheral government bonds is still fragile while
fresh shocks remain possible. as such, some central banks may well
decide to postpone sales plans in order to avoid putting additional
pressure on bond yields.
As we will soon enter the final year of the third CBGA, there is
already some discussion about whether the agreement should be
renewed after the current programme expires on 26th september 2014,
especially given very low levels of sales in recent years. However,
it is of note that many countries within the group are still
arguably overweight in gold. once the regions debt situation
stabilises, it is possible to foresee a recovery in strategic
disposals from certain countries and an upper annual sales limit
should remove market uncertainty. those arguing for a renewal of
the cBGa will have seen their case still enhanced, particularly
taking into account the profoundly negative impact that the news of
cyprus gold sale plan had on the gold price in mid-april.
-
10
h1 2013
aPPeNdix - official sector Gold HoldiNGs aNd otHer reserves
country Gold in Gold in other Gold as data as tonnes Us$ bn1
Reserves % of Total of end- in Us$ bn reserves 1 United States
8,134 311.7 134.6 69.8% June2 Germany 3,391 129.9 66.1 66.3% June3
Italy 2,452 94.0 50.7 64.9% June4 France 2,435 93.3 51.3 64.5%
June5 China, P.R.: Mainland 1,054 54.2 3,464.3 1.5% March6
Switzerland 1,040 46.6 470.8 9.0% May7 Russia 996 38.2 474.9 7.4%
June8 Japan 765 29.3 1,208.4 2.4% June9 Netherlands 612 23.5 21.6
52.0% June10 India 558 21.4 263.8 7.5% June11 Turkey 441 16.9 105.5
13.8% June12 Taiwan 424 16.2 406.6 3.8% June13 Portugal 382 14.7
2.8 84.2% June14 Venezuela 366 18.8 7.4 71.8% March15 Saudi Arabia
323 14.5 689.3 2.1% May16 United Kingdom 310 11.9 90.1 11.7% June17
Lebanon 287 13.5 38.7 25.9% April18 Spain 282 10.8 35.4 23.4%
June19 Austria 280 10.7 11.8 47.6% June20 Belgium 227 8.7 18.0
32.6% June21 Philippines 193 8.6 73.3 10.5% May22 Algeria 174 7.8
191.4 3.9% May23 Thailand 152 5.8 164.6 3.4% June24 Kazakhstan 131
5.0 21.0 19.3% June25 Singapore 127 5.7 258.2 2.2% May26 Sweden 126
4.8 60.6 7.4% June27 South Africa 125 5.9 41.8 12.4% April28 Mexico
124 4.7 164.0 2.8% June29 Libya 117 5.2 119.6 4.2% May30 Greece 112
4.3 1.3 76.3% June31 South Korea 104 4.7 323.3 1.4% May32 Romania
104 4.0 42.1 8.6% June33 Poland 103 3.9 102.8 3.7% June34 Australia
80 3.1 45.0 6.4% June35 Kuwait 79 3.0 32.0 8.6% June36 Indonesia 76
3.9 101.3 3.7% February37 Egypt 76 3.6 11.0 24.5% April38 Brazil 67
2.6 366.5 0.7% June39 Denmark 67 2.6 82.5 3.0% June40 Pakistan 64
2.5 7.3 25.2% June1 Market valuation based on end-month gold prices
respectively source: iMf and central bank websites
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11
h1 2013
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