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Gold Supply & Demand Statistics for 2015/2016 - What is the message?
Cameron Alexander
Manager, Precious Metals Demand, Asia - GFMS
BMD Gold and Precious Metals Price Outlook Symposium 2015Kuala Lumpur 15th June 2015
GFMS GOLD SURVEY 2015Prepared by GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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TANAKA PRECIOUS METALSwww.pamp.com
www.igr.com.tr
The GFMS team at Thomson Reuters gratefully acknowledges the generous support from the following companies for this year’s GFMS Gold Survey and its
Quarterly Updates
Italpreziosi SPA
www.heraeus-precious-metals.com
www.perthmint.com.au
WORLD GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Supply 4,106 4,349 4,539 4,413 4,310 4,362
Physical Demand 3,038 3,807 4,515 4,321 5,041 4,158
Physical Surplus/Deficit 1,068 542 25 192 -732 204
ETF Inventory Build 623 382 185 279 -880 -160
Exchange Inventory Build 39 54 -6 -10 -98 1
Net Balance 406 106 -154 -78 246 363
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GOLD ETFS AND OTHER SIMILAR PRODUCTS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Other
ETF Securities
iShares Gold
SPDR Gold Shares
ZKB
GBS (LSE listed)
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, collates from respective ETF issuers’ data
To
nn
es
RETAIL INVESTMENT
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14
To
nn
es
Other
North America
Europe
China
India
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CHINA REMAINS WORLD’S LARGEST CONSUMER*
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
To
nn
es
India
China
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters * Demand consists of jewellery fabrication, industrial fabrication and retail investment
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Net-Imports
Exports
Gold Price
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
INDIAN BULLION NET IMPORTS AND EXPORTS*
*Exports include bars, jewellery, medallions and coins Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
To
nn
es
Ru
pe
es/1
0g
(tho
usa
nd
s)
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ImportsExports
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
To
nn
es
*Calculated quantities based on reported export and import values Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
HONG KONG BULLION IMPORTS AND EXPORTS*
CHINESE JEWELLERY FABRICATON
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
RN
B/g
To
nn
es
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gold Price
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SWISS GOLD BULLION TRADE 2014
Imports Exports
1,660 tonnes 1,741 tonnesOne cm2 is equal to 50 tonnes of gold and each countries’ flag is proportional to it’s trade. The whole rectangle for imports and exports is equal to the total trade and the grey area denotes trade with a country not represented by a flag.
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Swiss Impex
SWISS GOLD BULLION TRADE - MONTHLY
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Swiss Impex
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SWITZERLAND ANNUAL TRADE SINCE 1982
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters; Swiss Impex
GLOBAL JEWELLERY FABRICATION2005 VS. 2014
2005 2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
8
-1600
-1200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008
To
nn
es
Source: BIS; IMF; GFMS, Thomson Reuters
Net Purchases
Net Sales
HISTORICAL NET OFFICIAL SECTOR PURCHASES & SALES
FOUR LARGEST CUMULATIVE OFFICIAL PURCHASERS IN 2014
0
40
80
120
160
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
To
nn
es
RussiaIraqAzerbaijanKazakhstan
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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WORLD SCRAP SUPPLY BY REGION
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
To
nn
es
South America
Africa
Oceania
North America
Europe
Asia
Annual Average Gold Price
Co
nsta
nt 2
01
4 U
S$
/o
z
MAPPING: MINE PRODUCTION WINNERS AND LOSERS 2014 VERSUS 2013
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GLOBAL PROCESSED GOLD GRADE VS PRICE
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters 0
500
1000
1500
2000
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
An
nu
al A
ve
rag
e U
S$
/o
z
Pro
ce
sse
d O
re G
rad
e (
g/t)
ProcessedOre Grade
Gold Price
WORLD TOTAL CASH AND ALL IN COST CURVES 2014 VERSUS 2013
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 20 40 60 80 100
2013 All-in Cost
2014 All-in Cost
2013 Total Cash Cost
2014 Total Cash Cost
US
$/o
z
US
$/o
z
Cumulative Production %
2014 Average Gold Price ($1,266.40/oz)
2013 Average Gold Price ($1,411.22/oz)
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
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GLOBAL DELTA HEDGE BOOK VOLUME AT END-DECEMBER 2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
GLOBAL HEDGE BOOK HOLDERS*, END-DECEMBER 2014
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters *Numbers on a nominal (number of contracts) basis
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INDEX OF GOLD PRICE IN MAJOR CURRENCIES
Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15
Ind
ex
, 2
nd
Ja
nu
ary
20
07
=1
00
DollarEuroRupee
GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK FOR 2014-2015
• Positives
� A notable recovery in jewellery demand in developing countries.
� Supply is contracting, led by scrap.
� Anti-hedging sentiment appears to persist among producers and their investors.
� Central banks remain considerable bullion buyers.
� Market “surplus” is set to shrink considerably, to reduce investors’ burden to clear
the market.
� Still uncertainty regarding the economic and fiscal situation in US and Europe,
any monetary tightening will be a gradual process.
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• Negatives
� Gold faces increasing headwinds including: strong dollar, better economic outlook
and improving returns on traditional assets.
� Still substantial investor gold holdings, scope for further long liquidation.
� Falls below psychologically important levels will trigger panic selling. Bargain hunting
could ease if prices continue to trend down.
� Physical demand (official bar investment in particular) in India restrained by
government policies.
� Although underlying supply/demand fundamentals are likely to improve, a market
surplus will persist making the gold price still dependent on investor activity to mop
this up.
GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK FOR 2014-2015
OTHER PRECIOUS METALS
� Silver prices to average $16.50 in 2015 – growth thereafter.
� Stronger jewellery demand and weaker mine production providing a stronger fundamental picture.
� Platinum to move back into large deficit this year following small surplus in 2014. Prices to retreat further before strong rebound.
� Palladium prices to plateau this year before also increasing on stronger fundamentals.
� Stronger industrial demand and substitution gains in the Autocatalyst sector.
