Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

in Southeast AsiaYuki Honda

RA II Theme Leader on NWP Systems and ProductsJapan Meteorological Agency

Munehiko YamaguchiMeteorological Research Institute

Special thanks to:Shunsuke Hoshino (MRI/JMA)

Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC)Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO)

• In 2009, the tyhoon Ketsana made the worst damage in Southeaset Asia. • After passing Phiippines, it hit Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Tailand.• The total loss of lives are about 700 and the estimated damage reachs

over about $700 million to $1.0 billion USD.

Flood

WindstormCyclones

Drought

14th Session of RA-II• 4.1.2 The Association noted that the Severe Weather

Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) has achieved significant results and benefits relative to the GDPFS and PWS programmes in its first regional project in Africa, and requested the Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery [ref. XIV-RA II/Doc. 5.1] to consider developing a SWFDP RA II project as a method for enhancing the GDPFS and PWS and contributing to disaster risk reduction goals in developing countries, for example, those in Southeast Asia that have recently experienced disasters.

Workshop on SWFDP DevelopmentFor Southeast Asia

• Workshop on SWFDP Development For Southeast Asia (Ha Noi, Viet Nam, 2-5 Februrary, 2010)

– Chair : Edwin S. T. Lai (HKO) • Coordinator of Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and

Service Delivery in RA-II

• CBS endorsement– 3rd meeting of Steering Group of SWFDP (Feb.2010, Geneva)

• recognized this arising sub-project and gave the highest priority to this sub-project with other 2 sub-projects.

– CBS Extraordinary Session (2010) (Namibia; Nov. 2010)

Target Severe Weather EventsThe following events are focused in order of decreasing

priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell:

• tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge);

• heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography;

• thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection;• cold conditions and frost;• extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

Participants and Domain

Global Centres CMA JMA KMA

Regional Centres Hanoi (regional forecast support) Hong Kong (training and technical support) RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi (Typhoon

/Tropical Cyclone forecasting support)

NMCs Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

NWP/EPS Products

• Deterministic Products– Weather Charts on Specified Pressure Levels– Wind, Temperature, Geopotential Height, Humidity,

Precipitation, CAPE…etc.• EPS Products

– Stamp Maps– Probability Maps of Precipitation, Wind Speed and

Significant Wave Height (one or a few thretholds)– EPSgrams– Typhoon/TC Strike Propability Maps …etc. (EFI)

ProductDeterministic Forecast 　from Global ModelProbabilistic Forecast from Global medium-range EPS

How to see KMA NWP outputs

Synergy with Other Regional Activities

There are some on-going and planned projects related to NWP system and products.

• RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts

• JMA Pilot Project on EPS Products (EPS-WEB)

RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts

• 13th Session of RA II - to enable developing countries of RA II access NWP products;

• By the beginning of 2009, 18 countries had joined the Project; and,

• Hong Kong, China; Japan and the Republic of Korea provided forecast time series products for over 160 cities to 13 countries.

13

The products in JMA EPS-WEB are recommended by Manual on the GDPFS (WMO No.485).

• In addition to the web-site for public users, JMA provides a web-site for meteorologists and forecasters in foreign countries.

• The special forecast products derived from EPS are disseminated on the website, “JMA EPS-WEB”, supporting the activity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia.

• The data in this website is available for operational weather forecasting in your countries.

JMA EPS-WEB

Synergy with TIGGE/GIFS in RA II

• CMA– Archive Centre of the THORPEX/TIGGE project– Store EPS products from 10 NWP centres every

day.

• MRI– North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC)

Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project

• A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving TC track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project.

• The objectives of the NWP-TCTEF Project are:- to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track forecast

data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast

- to develop software for a real time multi-model tropical cyclone forecasting system from data transfer to verification

- to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of tropical cyclones track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi-model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs

NWP-TCTEF Project

Tropical Cyclone Products - MCGE -Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Homepage (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php)

by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA

Multi Centre Grand Ensemble by TIGGE

Strike Probability Each Track

Send email to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp to get ID and password

Tropical Cyclone Products – Each Center EPS -

Track predictions by each EPS are also available ParticipantsCMA

MSC

ECMWF

JMA-WEPS

JMA-TEPS

KMA

NCEP

STI

UKMO

Distance　to　TC　center　is　plotted　with　box　plots

Strike　probability　at　specific　time　is　plotted　with　bars

Strike Probability time-series at a city - 1-

Time

Select　city

Time　series　of　strike　probability　and　the　distance　to　TC　center

Strike Probability time-series at a city - 2-The users can select a city to see the strike probability time-

series maps by multi-model EPS and each center’s EPS

192hr

Color　Shading:　Percentage　of　Members,　which　exceed　90　Percentile　of　Us

216hr

Case　study　for　Vietnam　Flood　in　Oct.　2008Genesis Potential using TIGGE

EPSgramCMC

ECMWF

JMA

NCEP

UKMO

Climatology based on Reanalysis data

CMA

MSC EMCWF

STI

JMA

KMA

NCEP

Meteorological Research Institute

Regional Centre Hanoi

National Met. CentresCambodia

Lao P.D.R. Vietnam

Thailand

UKMO

Multi-CentresGrand Ensemble

GIFS ProductsDailySevere Weather ForecastingGuidance

Feedback- Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation

Testify GIFS Products for

Operational Use

May Add One More CellTo Evaluation GIFS Products

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EVALUATION FORM

- everytime after events-

Quarterly EvaluationsA summarized evaluation report every quarter

GIFS ↔ SWFDP

• GIFS producers will give additional research products from multi-center grand ensemble, which are proved valuable by scientific evaluation.

• SWFDP subprojects will return the feedback to GIFS producers with subjective evaluation of GIFS products for operational use.

Issues in Forecasting Operation

• Products Available Time– Products regarding Severe Weather may lose their

quality quickly as the forecast time goes.

• Coordination with Other Similar Products– NWP/EPS Products of Regional Centre Hanoi– NWP/EPS Products of Global Models from Each

NWP Center– And …

Typhoon Forecasts from Various SourcesTyphoon Ketsana (18/21 UTC 28 Sep 2009)

RSMC Tokyo

Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy)

Hong Kong Observatory

From BeijingFrom Beijing** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA ***** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA ***SUBJECTIVE FORECASTSUBJECTIVE FORECASTTY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTCTY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC00HR 00HR 15.9N 109.8E15.9N 109.8E 960HPA 38M/S 960HPA 38M/S30KTS 550KM30KTS 550KM50KTS 110KM50KTS 110KMP12HR W 15KM/HP12HR W 15KM/HP+24HR P+24HR 15.8N 106.6E15.8N 106.6E 990HPA 23M/S 990HPA 23M/SP+48HR P+48HR 15.8N 103.3E15.8N 103.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= 1000HPA 15M/S=

China Meteorological Administration