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World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)
REGIONAL SUBPROJECT RA V
Steve Ready
South Pacific ‘Window’
Solomon Islands
SamoaVanuatu
Fiji
150OE to 150OW, 2ON to 25(30)OS
Tonga
Niue Cook Islands
Tuvalu
Kiribati
South Pacific window
South Pacific Guidance chart produced by RSMC Wellington
Before YasiWas named!
UKMO page on MetConnect Pacific
UKMO
TC data Ensemble tracks Strike probabilities Deterministic v Ensemble mean
TC (and non-TC)Tracks- static image
TC Animated – strike probabilities: TC passing within 300km
TC Genesis probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)
TC probabilities – 10x10° (bar graphs)
Southerly swellPeak around 3m15s
Christmas Island(Just north of Equatornear 158⁰West)
ECMWF – tropical cyclone data
Lagrangian Meteogram - EPS 7°x 7° box centred on TC Strike probability map - 120km radius Cyclone observed track Deterministic forecast verification
Strike probability for Wilma
ECMWF on TC Wilma
NCEP
RSMC Darwin
ACCESS-TC and vortexTracking available by 2011/2012 cyclone season
South Pacific Guidance chart during TC Wilma Jan 2011
Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE
Links between SWFDDP and GIFS-TIGGE
Issues for SWFDDP
• Poor internet connectivity - low internet bandwidth, downloading quota
• Lack of qualified WMO meteorologists in South Pacific
• Dependency - 5 of 9 participating countries in SWFDDP rely on RSMC for some or all their forecasting & warning requirements
Snowman around Wellington on 14-16 August 2011