SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING AND WARNING SERVICES IN UGANDA

By Nambalirwa Mary Vincent

Senior Meteorological Officer.

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING

Uganda is a landlocked country surrounded by Tanzania in the South, Kenya in the East, Sudan in the North

and DR Congo in the West.

GEOGRAGHICAL MAP OF UGANDA

Climate

The above map shows the phyisical features which influence the climate of Uganda. These are;

Water bodies e.g Lake Victoria, Lake Albert and Lake Kioga.A number of rivers especially River Nile

The highland areas e.g Mt. Elgon, Mt. Ruwenzori,And Muhavura ranges and Western Rift Valley

Also natural forests affect our climate.

SYNOPTIC FEATURES

• When preparing Forecasts, we follow closely the synoptic features which affect the weather of Uganda. These are;– The location and movements of the 4 Highs ( St

Hellena, Mascarene, Azores, Arabian ridge and the East African ridge).

– The movement of the cold fronts and warm fronts both over the Northern and the Southern hemisphere

– The location and oscillation of the ITCZ.– The oscillation of the ITD (Congo air mass). With all

these we bear in mind the seasons to help where severe weather would occur.

FORECASTS

• Before preparing the forecasts, we;-– Analyze the synoptic surface charts(0600z and1200z)– Analyze the 300hpa upper air chart. This chart help

us in developing the weather systems of the following day.

– Check and animate the satellite imagery which is received every 15 minutes.

– Download forecasted products from LAM, NCMRWF,ECMWF, Norway and South Africa synoptic weather chart.

– All these help us to prepare precise Forecast

LOCALLY FORECASTED SEVERE WEATHER

• The daily severe weather phenomena forecasted are;-– Heavy thunderstorms– Embended CBs and squall lines– Heavy duststorms (Karamoja and some parts

of Northern districts)– Severe Haze (during June-July for southern

sector and December- January for Northern)– Thick fog ( South western, Entebbe airport)

Total precipitation amount (mm) From 0600 28/09/2010 to 1200 28/09/2010

Synoptic chart for South Africa

Infra red 108 MSG for Southern Africa Valid 0700z 28 Sep 2010

Infra red 108 MSG for Uganda Valid 1500z 27/09/2010

IR108 MSG 201009280715

FOUR-DAY FORECAST PRODUCT FROM NOWAY

• Weather forecast for Uganda• Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday• Midday Night Morning Midday Night Morning Midday Night Morning• Bwizibwera 26° 25° 16° 26° 25° 15° 26° 25° 17° • Gulu 25° 25° 18° 28° 25° 19° 27° 26° 19° • Jinja 25° 24° 18° 23° 23° 18° 22° 22° 18° • Kampala 26° 24° 18° 24° 22° 16° 25° 22° 15°• Lira 26° 26° 18° 28° 25° 19° 28° 26° 19°

FORECASTs CONTd

• These are the forecast we prepare;-– One day forecasts.– City forecasts.– 3 day forecasts.– Dekadal forecasts.– Medium term forecast( 3moths)– Long term forecasts (6months)

DISSEMINATION• Normally daily forecasts are sent to all end users who need it free

through the e-mail addresses. It is also sent to all MTN mobile users in a certain format.

• Dekadal forecasts are sent to agricultural officers on districts to help the give good advice and advisory to farmers about the onset and cessation of the wet season.

• As for Short and long term numeric weather predictions a workshop is always prepared and stake holders are called to be sensitized about the expected seasonal weather. If severe weather is expected eg; - El-Nino or La Nina which normally affect the whole community with either floods or droughts, the Drought and Disaster Management Sector starts preparing for solving the worst to come.

•

USERS OF THE FORECASTS

• The following are the major users of our forecasts in the social-economic activities.– Presdent’s Office – Prime minister’s Office– Min.of Deffence– Min. of Agriculture– National Environment Management Authority(NEMA)– Different mass media– Civil aviation Authority– Construction; Research centres; Universities,

Colleges etc

CONCLUSION

• I Think weather Forecasting is vital and only helps the community if taken serious. eg;- during the recent El-Nino, many lives and property were lost over Mt Elgon (Bududa district). Had the community taken Met. Advice seriously at least no life would have been lost.

• END OF THE SHOW