Session 6

Crisis and Risk Communication

Session 6 Slide Deck

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Session Objectives

1. Provide an Overview of Risk Perception Theory

2. Explain the Importance of Risk Perception in Risk Communication

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Perception Exercise 1

Raw/Undercooked Food Exposure

•Rate ‘Danger’ of exposure on a scale of 1-10– Meat– Pork– Chicken– Fish– Unwashed vegetables

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Session 6 4

Risk Perception

A study within the discipline of sociology that looks at why people fear the things they do

(and also why they do not fear other things)

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Perception Exercise 2

Your three greatest risks

•Write down the three hazards that are most likely to injure you, kill you, or to otherwise bring great hardship to your life

•Why are these three hazard risks so great?

•Lifetime risk, or just at the present time?

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Risk Fallibility Conclusion 1

• Cognitive limitations, coupled with the anxieties generated by facing life as a gamble, cause uncertainty to be denied, risks to be distorted, and statements of fact to be believed with unwarranted confidence

• Sniper Example – over-estimated fear

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Risk Fallibility Conclusion 2• Perceived risk is influenced (and sometimes

biased) by the imaginability and memorability of the hazard

• People may not have valid perceptions about even familiar risks

• People underestimate common risks and overestimate rarer risks– Toyota example– Anthrax attacks (2001)

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Risk Fallibility Conclusion 3

• Disaster management experts’ risk perceptions correspond closely to statistical frequencies of death

• Laypeople’s risk perceptions are based in part on frequencies of death, but there are many other qualitative aspects that affect their personal rating of risks

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Perception Example 3

• Shark attacks– Annual attacks (worldwide)– Annual fatalities (worldwide)

• Vending Machines

• Drowning

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Risk Factors Related to Dread• Dreaded vs. not dreaded• Uncontrollable vs. controllable• Globally catastrophic vs. not globally catastrophic• Fatal consequences vs. not fatal consequences• Not equitable vs. equitable• Catastrophic vs. individual• High risk to future generations vs. low risk to future

generations• Not easily reduced vs. easily reduced• Risk increasing vs. risk decreasing• Involuntary vs. voluntary• Affects me vs. doesn’t affect me• Not preventable vs. preventable

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Factors Related to How Much is Known About the Risk

• Not observable vs. observable

• Unknown to those exposed vs. known to those exposed

• Effect delayed vs. effect immediate

• New risk vs. old risk

• Risks unknown to science vs. risks known to science

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Risk Fallibility Conclusion 4

• Disagreements about risk should not be expected to evaporate in the presence of “evidence.”

• People often are unaware of how little they know about a risk, and of how much more information they need to make an informed decision.

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Risk Perception Attributes

• Socioeconomic characteristics

• People’s knowledge of the environment and the hazards that the environment poses to them

• Their ignorance

• Their ability to cope with those hazards.

• Their ability to access help from outside.

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Risk Perception Influence on Mitigation

• If those funding HazMit projects do not perceive the hazard to be significant, funding is unlikely to be provided

• If the public does not perceive a hazard to affect them personally, they are unlikely to take any personal measures to prepare or mitigate

• The presence of differing risk perceptions highlights the need for effective risk communication

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Perception Example 4

• Smoking cigarettes

• Drinking wine

• Coal mine work

• Traveling by canoe

• Traveling by bicycle

• Traveling by car

• Traveling by jet

• Chest X-ray

• Living in New York, Boston, orDenver

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• Chest X-ray

• Living with a cigarette smoker

• Eating peanut butter

• Drinking Miami water

• Drinking diet soda

• Living near a nuclear power plan

• Living near a PVC plant

• Eating charcoal-broiled steaks

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Changing Nature of Hazard Presentation

“In one year, cigarettes kill more Americans than died in World War I, the Korean War,

and the Vietnam War combined”

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Perception and Risk Analysis

• “We make a fundamental mistake when we, as safety managers, deal with risk as a fixed attribute, something physical that can be precisely measured and managed.”

• “The problem with this is that everyone has a unique set of assumptions and experiences that shape their interpretations of objects or events.”– C.J. Pitzer, 1999

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Inaccuracies in Perception

• Belief that a great risk is small– HazMat Production, Storage, Transport, Use

• Belief that a small/nonexistent risk is great– Vaccine / Autism link

• “differences in risk perception lie at the heart of disagreements about the best course of action between technical experts and members of the general public, men vs. women, and people from different cultures” – Slovic, 2002

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Perception Example 5• Automobile Accident

• Cancer

• Earthquake

• Fall down the stairs

• Flood

• Heart Disease

• House fire

• Hurricane

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• Identity theft

• Influenza

• Job loss / Unemployment

• Robbery / Assault

• Stroke

• The economy

• Tornado

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Heuristics

• The Overconfidence Heuristic– Homicides / Suicides

• Availability Heuristic– Auto accidents / airplane crashes / sharks

• Anchoring and Adjusting Heuristic– Inaccurate anchors hard to correct

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