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SEMI Fab Investment and Secondary Equipment Market Update
Clark Tseng, Sr. ManagerSEMI Industry Research & Statistics
October 2015
Outline
• 2015 Year-to-Date Trends
• 200mm Fab Capacity and Equipment Spending Outlook
• Summary
Year-to-Date Trends
2015 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts
2.3%
5.0%
3.4%
3.0%
2.0%
4.3%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
WSTS (Aug 15)
IDC (Sep 15)
Cowan LRA (Aug 15)
TSMC (Jul 15)
IC Insights (Aug 15)
Semico Research (Sep 15)
Source: Compiled by SEMI
Interesting Year to Date…
• Growing uncertainty in the global economic condition – Slower growth from emerging markets; mediocre European
market; Japan 2Q GDP contraction; China stock market…global stock markets
• Semiconductor revenue forecasts lowered– Generally, from mid-single digit to low-single digit– PC market down, tablet market growth slowing, currency
effects…
• Some companies reduced capex for 2015• Declining DRAM pricing
Yet…
Unit Trends-Strong Year-over-Year growth for 1H
Source: SEMI and WSTS
Silicon Area Shipment Index
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
Jan-
12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month Moving Average)
Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group August 2015
Silicon shipments are up 7% year to date through July
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jun
-15
(f)
Jul-
15
(p
)
15
-Au
gBo
ok
-to
-Bil
l Ra
tio
$800$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar
-15
Ap
r-1
5
May
-15
Jun
-15
(f)
Jul-
15
(p
)
Au
g-1
5US$
Mil
lio
ns
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill
(based on three month averages)
Bookings Billings
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill-Steady booking and billings trends thru July
Source: SEMI August 2015
Global Semiconductor Equipment Spending
Source: SEMI/SEAJ
2015 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings(U.S. Dollars in Millions)
Region2015 Year-to-
Date (July) 2014 Year-to-
Date (July)Y/Y % Change
Europe $1,318 $1,337 -1%
Japan $3,118 $2,286 36%
North America $3,474 $4,915 -29%
Korea $5,414 $4,065 33%
Taiwan $5,340 $5,841 -9%
China $2,613 $3,039 -14%
ROW $1,138 $1,120 2%
Total $22,415 $22,603 -1%
Year-date-bookings are flat
Semiconductor Industry Outlook
• Semiconductor industry growth is driven by the consumer
• As a result, industry growth is closely aligned with the overall economy
66%
14%
-7%5%
-9%
28%40%
66%
10%5%
-21%
17%
87%
-41%-30%
12%
67%
-11%
23%6%
-31%-46%
150%
9%
-15%-14%
18%3%
5%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
F20
16F
An
nu
al G
row
th(%
)
Ca
pit
al E
qu
ipm
en
t($
US
Bil
lio
n)
Capital Equipment Annual Growth
Capital Equipment Cycles
Source: SEMI/SEAJ. SEMI 2015 Mid-Year Forecast, August update
Regional Semiconductor Equipment Markets
China12% Europe
6%
Japan11%
Korea18%
North America
22%
ROW6%
Taiwan25%
2014 = $37.50 billion
Region 2014$US B
2015F$US B
%Change
China $4.37 $4.56 4%
Europe 2.38 2.50 5%
Japan 4.18 5.29 27%
Korea 6.84 8.13 19%
North America 8.16 6.26 -23%
SEA/ROW 2.15 2.14 -1%
Taiwan 9.41 9.56 2%
Total $37.50 $38.44 3%
Source: SEMI/SEAJ August 2015 update
Totals may not add due to rounding
Fab Equipment Spending-Driven by Memory and Foundry
200mm Fab Capacity & Equipment Outlook
Global Silicon Wafer Shipment Trends
Source: Rose Associates 1991to 1994; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2013; SEMI Forecast
Steady 200mm Capacity Addition to 2018
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018
200mm Capacity by Regions
Americas China Europe & Mideast Japan Korea SE Asia Taiwan
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
200mm WPM
The Return of 200mm Capacity
7% 7%
New 200mm Fabs Emerged from China
Foundries-Ramping 200mm capacity in 2015 and 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F
Foundry only- 200mm 2.12 2.19 2.27 2.29 2.28 2.37 2.43
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(Mill
ion
s w
pm
)
Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
200mm Fab Capacity-Foundry share is expanding
Volume fabs only, excluding LED and EPI
Larger share for Foundriesand Analog/Discrete
Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast
200mm Secondary Fab Equipment
Foundry Spending,
32%
Other than
Foundry, 68%
2013
Foundry Spending
51%
Other than Foundry
49%
2014
Source: SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report
200 mm Specific Trends/Issues
As identified by IDMs and Foundries:• Driven by costs and the fact that some new equipment is often
no longer available as the OEM discontinued the product line. • OEM support for some 200 mm systems is “starting to dry up”
– thus the need to partner with third party
• A number of 200 mm tools are currently available on the market, but– Tool conditions are often an unknown. – Equipment may be stored in a warehouse, thus operating conditions
cannot be evaluated– No or poor data exist about equipment shutdown.
Source: SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report
Equipment Preparation
Challenge: how secondary tools have been prepped for sale
Ways to address this issue include:• Lower cost and rapid tool inspections• Third party equipment services with global scale• Long range visibility into equipment availability —“everything is
reactive now to when a fab closure is announced”• Consolidation or defragmentation of the parts market• Establish industry make/model/application taxonomy
– “Standardize” legacy parts, part numbering, and other
Source: SEMI Secondary Fab Equipment Report
Summary
Summary
• Year-to-Date Trends Silicon shipments are up through July Equipment bookings and billings are comparable to 2014 levels
• Outlook to 2019– 3% to 5% CAGR for semiconductor revenues
• Investment in “legacy” fabs are important in manufacturing many semiconductor products– 200mm fab capacity has been on the rise, led by foundries
• Issues impacting secondary equipment sector include the availability of production worthy systems, the availability of parts and spares for legacy systems, OEM support for legacy equipment, and others.
For SEMI Market Data and Information, Please Visit:www.semi.org/marketinfowww.semi.org/fabswww.slideshare.net/ehallSEMIwww.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats
Sign-up for the Monthly SEMI Global Update e-newsletter:www.semi.org/About/SEMIGlobalUpdate/
Thank you!