Security and Counter Terrorism Science Business Plan

8/8/2019 Security and Counter Terrorism Science Business Plan

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Security and Counter Terrorism Science Business Plan

These programmes seek to address the Governments strategic counter-terrorism objective:

To reduce the risk to the United Kingdom and its interests overseas

from international terrorism so that people can go about their daily livesfreely and with confidence.

The Government strategy to achieve this objective was established in 2003and is known as CONTEST. The Office for Security and Counter Terrorism(OSCT) is responsible for the continued development of this strategy, and itsimplementation and governance.

CONTEST was refreshed in March 2009 and continues to be based aroundfour workstreams (the four Ps), each with a specific objective:

PURSUE To stop terrorist attacks.

PREVENT To stop people becoming terrorists or supporting violentextremism.

PROTECT To strengthen our protection against terrorist attack.

PREPARE Where an attack cannot be stopped, to mitigate its impact.

Science and technology plays a role in underpinning all four Ps.

1. Cross-cutting CONTEST Science and Technology Programme

Objectives of the science

The programme coordinates the identification of requirements and theongoing activities of cross-Government science and technology relating tocounter-terrorism. Led by the OSCT existing work is shared as appropriatewith Government partners in order to identify opportunities for burden sharingand alignment of work programmes. Where a requirement is identified that isnot being appropriately addressed by existing work within Government, OSCTendeavours to allocate funds to projects to meet it.

Policy priorities it addressesThe programme addresses the aims set out in the United Kingdoms Science& Technology Strategy for Countering International Terrorism 2009-2012:

To use horizon scanning to understand future scientific and technicalthreats and opportunities and inform our decision making on counter-terrorism.

To ensure the development and delivery of effective counter-terrorismsolutions by identifying and sharing priority science and technologyrequirements.

To enhance international collaboration on counter-terrorism relatedscience and technology.

Brief outline of the approachResearch for the programme is prioritised and endorsed through a cross-

Government CONTEST Science and Technology Board, supported by arange of cross-Government Working Groups themed around priority areas.


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Independent scrutiny is provided by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser,supported by his Counter-Terrorism Core Interest Group.

The programme covers a diverse range of requirements, customers andresearch disciplines contributing to the cross-Government key challenges

identified in the HM Government publication Countering the terrorist threat:Ideas and innovation. These key challenges include:

Reducing the vulnerability of crowded places.

Protecting the national infrastructure.

Protecting against cyber terrorism.

Improving analytical tools.

We have identified some of the key technologies of critical importance tosolving the challenges we face. These technologies are not only useful inaddressing the key challenges mentioned above, but also in responding toothers across counter-terrorism:

Knowledge management

Biometrics

Screening

Physical protection

Countering Improvised Explosive Devices

Further details of these technologies and the key challenges identified in theabove mentioned document are available from the OSCT internet pages onthe Home Office website.

The following information on CONTEST S&T Programme is grouped underthe headings of the cross-Government Working Groups that support deliveryof the programme. Note that the stated costs below describe direct HomeOffice funding for projects and excludes that funded by OGDs. The projectsare delivered by Government Departments and agencies commissioned bythe Home Office.

Electronic and Imaging Systems

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.0 (m) 1.5(m)Science discipline

Physical/Social ScienceExplosives

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally > 1.5 (m)Science discipline Physical Science


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Information Communication Technology

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally > 1.5 (m)Science discipline Physical ScienceSocial Behavioural Science

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.0 (m) 1.5(m)Science discipline Social ScienceCONTEST Portfolio OfficeA number of activities contribute to more than one Working Group, or supportthe broader S&T Programme. These activities are managed within theCONTEST Portfolio Office as apposed to a specific Working Group.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally > 1.5 (m)Science discipline Physical/Social ScienceCONTEST INSTINCT ProgrammeIn addition part of the OSCT budget for the cross-cutting CONTEST S&TProgramme funds an innovation programme. INSTINCT (INnovative Science& Technology IN Counter-Terrorism) seeks innovative solutions to address

CONTEST objectives and aims to improve our ability to move at pace andintelligently manage risk to make Government an effective customer ofinnovation.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally > 1.5 (m)Science discipline Physical/Social Science

2. CBRN Science and Technology Programme

Objectives of the scienceThe programme aims to use science and technology to enhance UKscapability to deal with the use, or threatened use, of CBRN materials byterrorists. Capabilities addressed cover both cross-Government requirementsand those specific to the Home Office. Initial work was primarily focussed onfilling gaps in our preparedness to deal with such an attack, but as it developsthe programme increasingly addresses requirements across all 4 Ps.

Policy priorities it addressesThe programme addresses the Government counter-terrorist strategy, asdefined in CONTEST II.


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Fit with the Science and Innovation StrategyThe programme is managed and directed in line with the CONTEST S&Istrategy 2007 and the Home Office S&I strategy 2008.

Brief outline of the approach

Work in this programme addresses both cross-Government requirements ledby the OSCT CBRN S&T programme and Home Office specific requirementsdeveloped by OSCT CBRN policy leads and supported by research,development and evaluation undertaken by HOSDB.

The OSCT led CBRN S&T programme has been running for 5 years andthere are well established governance and procedures to manage it. Theseinclude a cross Government CBRN S&T Delivery board to set and prioritiseresearch requirements and an independent and external CBRN S&T Advisoryboard to quality assure the research.

The CBRN S&T programme is a rolling programme and encompasses around50 70 individual research projects each year with a total budget for FY 09/10of 11m. The projects cover a wide range of capability gaps. Around eightypercent of the work is commissioned against targeted research requirementsto address specific identified needs, while the remainder is against broadergeneric requirements to encourage innovation. Outputs include scientificknowledge to inform policy, operational tactics/doctrine, or analyticprocedures; and the development new technology or evaluation of existingCOTS equipment.

The following details the CBRN research themes within the CBRN S&Tprogramme. The figures in the tables below refer to the current contractedcommitments for research based on cross-Government prioritisation for theOSCT CBRN S&T programme. Subject to decisions on funding available for2010 onwards spending in this year may be increased up to the maximum of11m. The actual figures for each area are likely to fluctuate during the yearas some research projects conclude and new contracts are let. In addition, toresearch, the programme also funds specialist support staff to providescientific advice across the programme, and project management of thevarious external suppliers contracted to carry out research work.

Laboratory AnalysisResearch on the efficacy of conventional forensic recovery techniques(fingerprints and DNA) on CBR contaminated evidence. Development ofmethods for safe handling of contaminated evidence Research into methodsfor rapid identification of CBR agents in food and water.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 40 (k)Science discipline Physical Science


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CBRN ProtectionReducing the physiological burden for first responders wearing PersonalProtective Equipment (PPE) and increasing operational time. Development ofstandards for assessing the performance of PPE.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 214(k)Science discipline Physical ScienceDetectionDevelopment of technology and systems to identify a release, the extent andlevel of concentration of materials in a large area for both fixed point and handheld applications. Development of technology and systems to detectconcealed materials or devices. Development of methodologies for routinelymonitoring the background level of toxic materials and interferents in the

environment.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.7 (m)Science discipline Physical ScienceMedical CountermeasuresIdentification of prophylaxis and treatments to counter effects of exposure toC, B, and R material. This includes determination of the efficacy of early/pre-symptomatic diagnosis, antidotes, therapies and antibiotics.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.2 (m)Science discipline Physical ScienceDecontamination (Hazard management)Research to develop technologies that measure the extent and level of CBRNcontamination on surfaces. The development of technology to contain CBRNmaterials and enhanced technologies or methods for decontamination.Technology/methods for the disposal of CBRN contaminated materials.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.5 (m)Science discipline Physical ScienceAssessment and StudiesDevelopment of realistic CBRN scenarios, risk assessment methodologiesand decision tools. Characterisation of background levels and devices.Studies of sampling approaches.


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09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 800 (k)Science discipline Physical/Social ScienceModelsValidation of dispersion models for movement of CBR material in the urbanenvironment, transport networks, and other public areas. Linkage ofdispersion models to decision models.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 383(k)Science discipline Physical ScienceSupport to Programme & AcademiaThe provision of specialist scientific advice to the Programme and project

management of programme, working closely with academia and externalsuppliers.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 785(k)Science discipline Physical/Social ScienceSupporting first line responders (HOSDB)Conducting performance and usability testing, leading to the development of aManual of Search and Detection Part 2 (CBRN for CBRN equipment for first

responders) in publication and disc format and moving towards an interactivewebsite accessible via the government extranets and to authorised CriticalNational Infrastructure clients.

Working closely with the Office for Security and Counter Terrorism RNMitigation project team to develop enhanced capabilities to provide futuretechnical options to mitigate risks and enhance operational effectiveness.

Continuing to technically manage a number of CBRN S&T detection projectswithin the cross-government portfolio, actively seeking exploitation of projectoutputs.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted internally Supported by additional

internal HO researchConducted externally* 250(k) 500(k)Science discipline Physical Science, Engineering

and Operational Research* Supported by additional funding from Other Government Departments


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3. Social and Behavioural Science ProgrammeObjectives of the scienceThe PREVENT OSCT social and behavioural science research programme isaimed at improving the evidence base of how to stop people becoming

terrorists or supporting violent extremism. In developing the evidence base tosupport policy initiatives it is focussed on two areas:

Understanding the radicalisation process that leads to violentextremism.

Evaluating the effectiveness of Prevent interventions.Policy priorities it addressesThe research programme specifically addresses and supports the PREVENTpolicy agenda, outlined in the PREVENT strategy, and embedded within therevised CONTEST strategy. The PREVENT strategy is based on the

fundamental importance of the radicalisation process as a driver of terrorismand has the following specific aims

Undermine extremist ideology and support mainstream voices. Disrupt those who promote violent extremism and strengthen

vulnerable institutions in the UK.

Support individuals who are vulnerable to recruitment by violentextremists.

Increase the capacity of communities to engage with and resist violentextremists.

Effectively address grievances.In addition to managing its own research programme, the OSCT social andbehavioural science research team (SBRT) is part of a larger crossgovernment group of researchers and analysts working on the PREVENTagenda. SBRT has a coordinating role in this endeavour, ensuring appropriateprioritisation and avoidance of duplication of research projects. Together withother Government departments and agencies, the SBRT is increasinglyworking with, and contributing to, the Pursue, Protect and Prepare policy andresearch programmes for the CONTEST II strategy.Fit with the Science and Innovation StrategyThe SBRT research programme fits with the current priorities identified forsocial sciences in the Home Office Science and Innovation Strategy for 2009-2011. The key strategic priorities being increased understanding ofradicalisation, development of robust radicalisation models and measurementof the impact of government PREVENT programmes. The S and I strategyalso identified the importance of social science applications in other areas ofcounter terrorism - an objective shared by the SBRT and manifest in theteams increasing interactions with researchers across the 4 Ps. The SBRTalso works with colleagues in the cross-cutting Science and TechnologyProgramme to Understand and Influence Human Behaviour aiding the

prioritisation, selection and oversight of social science projects funded by thisprogramme.


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Brief outline of the approachThe radicalisation process is imperfectly understood, multifactorial andresearch subjects may be difficult to study. Our understanding ofradicalisation has improved considerably in recent years although much more

needs to be done to understand the relative importance of political, economic,social and psychological factors and how they interact in individual cases.Causal factors conventionally considered to be relevant in the radicalisationprocess include exposure to a violent extremist ideology, exposure toradicalising individuals and institutions, perceived and real local, national andinternational grievances, cognitive vulnerability of individuals, communityresilience and small group dynamics. Our research is aimed at understandingthe relative importance of these factors, how and when they operate inindividuals or groups and which factors may be amenable to policyinterventions. Thus, research methods range from small scale qualitative

studies (e.g. case histories, focus groups) to large scale quantitativeapproaches (e.g. surveys) including theoretical approaches (e.g. quantitativemodels of radicalisation processes). There is an emphasis on the acquisitionof new primary data, despite the problems of gaining access to difficult toreach populations.

In addition to work on radicalisation, the team will also focus on developingprocess and outcome evaluations of Prevent policy interventions beingimplemented at a local level with statutory and community stakeholders.Subject to prioritisation and resource constraints, policy initiatives to beassessed include identification, risk assessment, referral and diversionary,counter radicalisation and de-radicalisation programmes.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.5 (m) 2(m)Science discipline Social Science

RICU research programme

Objectives of the research

The objectives of RICUs research programme are to:

a) answer the questions:- to whom are we talking? (our audiences)- what should we say to them? (the content of our messages)- how should we say it? (what channels we use)- and what is the effect of what we say? (evaluating our communication)

b) inform communications at three levels:- primary (communications to everyone, usually from central government

as ministerial speeches and departmental statements);


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- secondary (targeted communications, usually delivered locally, tospecific audience segments) designed to change attitudes and shapebehaviour;

- tertiary (targeted at particularly vulnerable groups and individuals,probably by specialist practitioners) designed to change behaviour.

Policy priorities it addressesThis research programme is to support RICUs work. RICU is theGovernments Counter-Terrorism Strategic Communications Unit and is jointlyowned by the Home Office, FCO and CLG. RICU operates across CONTESTto deliver effects through communications. Whilst it works across the whole ofCONTEST, RICUs focus is on the PREVENT strand, to which it devotesaround 80% of its resource.The purpose of RICU is to ensure that the UK Government communicateseffectively to reduce the risk of terrorism, by:

Advising CONTEST partners on their counter-terrorism relatedcommunications;

Exposing the weaknesses of violent extremist ideologies and brands;and

Supporting credible alternatives to violent extremism usingcommunications.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 1.0 (m) 1.5(0m)

Science discipline Social Science4. Weapons and ExplosivesResearch into explosives and weapons is a cross-department activitycoordinated through the CONTEST framework. Research is prioritised fromacross the capability requirements of Prepare, Protect, Pursue and Preventwith Home Office funded research focused primarily on improving the UKsdetection capability for novel and improvised explosive threats, and inmitigating vulnerability in the ground and maritime environments. Thefollowing details some of the examples of projects directly managed or led bythe Home Office. It should be noted that the actual figures might change dueto re-prioritisation in light of CONTEST requirements.

Research into the detection and characterisation of new explosivethreats. This will include the production of an upgraded Blue Book the Manual of Search and Detection (released annually) provides up todate advice on detection technology to operational and policy staffacross government and Critical National Infrastructure.

Conducting the next phase of standoff threat detection trials andstandards development in support of the cross-government standoffthreat detection (SOTD) programme while joining up our work withkey programme objectives within the US Department of Homeland

Security S&T Division.


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Management of a portfolio of 17 projects across a range of innovationproviders across academia and industry. The projects are aimed atimproving the state of the art in explosives and weapons detectiontechnology, and are jointly funded by four government departments.

Investigating less-lethal weaponry options for deployment in terrorist

situations.


internal HO research

Conducted externally* 1.0 (m) 1.5(m)Science discipline Physical Science and

Operational Research

* Supported by additional funding from Other Government Departments

Explosive and Ballistic ProtectionResearch on ways to mitigate the effects of IEDs and Person Borne IEDs(including suicide bombers). ,The Explosion and Ballistic Protectionprogramme, in partnership with CPNI, undertakes trials of materials andstructures to assess the effects of, or resistance to, blast and fragmentationeffects; develops equipments; and provides advisory capability (includingmodelling) to support the protection of UK government buildings, assets andcritical national infrastructure (CNI) against the effects of explosive andballistic attack. The team also supports OSCT, and the Police (includingprovision of advice on Explosive Methods of Entry (EMOE)).


internal HO researchConducted externally* 250(k) 500(k)Science discipline Physical Science and

Engineering* Supported by additional funding from Other Government Departments

Explosives ForensicsResearch to enhance existing methods and develop new forensic techniquesto maintain the operational capability of the Forensic Explosives Laboratory.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted externally 500(k) 750(k)Science discipline Physical ScienceMaritime ProtectionThe development of less lethal interception systems for small and mediumvessels and the research into the protection of vessels in port and installationswith a maritime boundary.


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internal HO research/scienceConducted externally* < 100 (k)Science discipline Physical Science and


5. Vision Based Security SystemsIn partnership with CPNI evaluate the effectiveness of intelligent videosystems against a standard library of images, known as i-LIDS, which isrepresentative of key counter-terrorist applications.


internal HO research/science

Conducted externally* < 100 (k)Science discipline Physical Science and


6. Barriers and Detection SystemsIn partnership with CPNI, this work comprises development of standards,product evaluations and provision of advice on physical security products(such as doors, fences, glazing) and perimeter intruder detection systems.HOSDB is evaluating Perimeter Intruder Detection Systems (buried, barrier-mounted and free standing) against performance standards.


internal HO research/scienceConducted externally* < 100 (k)Science discipline Physical Science and


7. Security Review and TrainingThe Security Review Programme assesses the security at locations mostcritical to the UK and makes recommendations for improving securityprovision for them.

he Security Training Programme provides targeted training to key securitypersonnel in government, police, military and vital industries in physicalsecurity.


internal HO research/scienceConducted externally 250(k) 500(k)Science discipline Physical Science


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8. ERA Security & Intelligence Analysis Team (SIAT)The Security and Intelligence Analysis Team provides analytical support toOSCT; its activities contribute to the evidence base underpinning the HomeOffices work to Protect the public from terrorism. In addition to work

supporting each of the four Ps, the team also undertakes analysis aimed atstrengthening the evidence base generally and supporting CONTEST.

PreventDuring 2008/2009, we developed and promulgated cutting-edge techniquesfor the analysis of covert social networks, and analysed two specific networksin detail, producing suggestive early results on both structural features ofcovert networks and mechanisms of recruitment into such networks. During2009/2010 and beyond, we plan to develop these approaches further, and tobuild up a library of real-world covert networks drawn from a variety ofsources, which can be used as a dataset in its own right in order to investigate

the effects of network structures and behaviour on radicalisation and de-radicalisation.

We also plan to continue work on drivers of radicalisation at an individuallevel, with a particular focus on un- and under-employment and any possibleeffects of the economic downturn on the Prevent agenda our lack of detailedunderstanding of these drivers is a worrying gap in the Prevent evidencebase. One key plank of this work will be to drive the development of therelevant Rich Picture dataset to create a consistent resource which can beused with more confidence than is presently the case.

09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted internallyScience discipline Economic/Operational

ResearchProtectDuring 2008/2009, we supported policy development and PSA targetdevelopment for the Crowded Places strand of the Protect agenda, and wereable to help develop a much more strongly evidence-based target. During2009/2010, we intend to continue this work with a focus on the trajectory

towards the target and on the development of the policy beyond the currentPSA period. We will also work closely with colleagues in TRANSEC todevelop a strong evidence base for the Transport strand of this agenda, andto ensure that our analytical approaches within the different strands areconsistent.

One key gap in the Protect evidence base concerns the extent to whichProtect (and to some extent Pursue) measures deter terrorists, rather thansimply displacing their activities to softer targets. During 2009/10, we willinitiate a programme of research to fill this gap (jointly with TRANSEC); thefirst stages will use a war-gaming approach.


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09/10 Research 09/10 CostConducted internally

Science discipline Economic/OperationalScience

PrepareDuring 2008/2009, we have had relatively little involvement in the constructionof the social science evidence base for Prepare; during 2009/10, we will seekto establish the key evidence gaps in this area, and develop a programme ofwork to begin to fill them, as we have done for the other Ps.



PursueDuring 2008/2009, we initiated a programme of work to establish the detailedevidence base for links between terrorist finance and organised fraud; in2009/2010, we plan to continue this work, and to extend it to other areas oforganised crime.

During 2009/2010, we will provide analysis to support UKBA in evaluatingguidance to immigration officers on spotting possible terrorism suspects, asthe guidance is rolled out across the UK. This will provide a valuableopportunity to make continuous improvements to the guidance package, aswell as producing detailed evidence as to the effectiveness of thisprogramme.

Finally, we will continue work begun in 2009/2010, in conjunction with OCJR,to begin to evaluate the downstream costs of different approaches to terrorismsuspects, and in particular the possible trade-offs between Prevent andPursue.



Cross-cutting and underpinning workSeveral of the most crucial gaps in the CONTEST evidence base are commonto all the Ps, or relate to decisions on resource allocation across them.

There is no commonly accepted gold-standard dataset for terrorism incidents;there are four different commonly-used sets, all based on analysis of publiclyavailable news reports, and with surprisingly little commonality between them.

During 2008/2009, we initiated work to explore the reasons for the strikingdifferences between datasets. During 2009/2010, we will continue this work to


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establish a definition of a terrorist incident which is accepted by the relevantstakeholders. This can then be used to establish a baseline dataset for moredetailed analysis of numbers and types of terrorist incidents over time.

Cost-benefit analysis of any CT measures requires some estimate of the

probability that an event of a given magnitude will occur within some timeperiod; however, the statistics of these low-probability, high-impact events arenot easily understood. During 2008/2009, we initiated work to investigatepossible approaches to solving this problem; during 2009/2010 we willdevelop the most promising approaches further.

A second necessity for almost any analysis is an understanding of how thepublic values a reduction of its exposure to the risk of a terrorist incident.During 2009/2010, we will initiate research to establish this understanding.

Finally, the rationale for CT activity depends strongly upon the cost that the

fear of terrorism imposes upon all of us; at present there is no good estimateof the magnitude of these costs for the UK, and we will initiate work toestimate them during 2009/2010.

In addition to our work to plug specific gaps, we will also continue the detailedmapping and summarising of the evidence base which we began in2008/2009, in order to contribute to a shared understanding of the evidencebase and its weaknesses among the many CONTEST stakeholders.



Physical/natural sciences, social sciences, statistics, engineering, economics andoperational research.

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Security and Counter Terrorism Science Business Plan