Se queensland residential communities rfr h2 2012

south east queensland communities

ReseaRch & FoRecast RepoRt

www.colliers.com.au/research

market sentiment was mixed over the first half of 2012 (h1 2012), with little consistency in performance amongst residential communities in the Brisbane, ipswich, logan moreton Bay and Gold coast local Government areas (lGa’s). Whilst some projects achieved sales of up to 32 vacant lots per month, other developers reported stage deferrals and subdued sales figures. the majority of projects surveyed experienced an increase in sales over the previous half, however, developers and marketing agents reported an increase in the time taken to convert enquiries into sales, as purchasers, particularly investors, become more sophisticated with greater access to market information. the weighted average median sale price is used for each region throughout this report and aims to provide an indication of price movement over the period. over h1 2012 the median declined 1.5% to $215,239. the slight decline in price could be partly attributed to increased demand for smaller lots which developers are creating to reduce land creation costs and increase affordability in their estates. For the purpose of ascertaining the current demand and availability of vacant land, and house and land packages, this report utilises a survey of residential communities yielding 100 lots or more. the identified lGa’s are referred to throughout the report as south east queensland (seq). they include; Brisbane, ipswich logan, moreton Bay and the Gold coast (including the northern tweed area). Private sector house approvals in seq increased for the second consecutive quarter over q2 2012 taking the total for h1 2012 to 3,989, a 16% increase on the previous half. according to population statistics, the number of houses being approved is well below requirements for population growth. Figures from the 2011 census show the study areas population increased by approximately 33,000 persons per year since 2006, equating to a requirement for over 14,000 new dwellings. the housing industry has called for the government to do more to increase affordability in seq. measures such as removing stamp duty from off-the-plan new home sales, subsidising the federally funded first home buyers grant and lifting the land tax surcharge may encourage investment in housing. Reports from industry professionals show the $10,000 queensland Building Boost failed to have the desired effect. the eligibility period ended 30 april 2012 after the initial budget of $140 million was not allocated by the original 30 January expiry. according to developers, the cost of delivering residential lots is being inflated by convoluted planning processes and charges on development. these costs are being passed directly onto the purchaser.

ReceNt peRFoRMaNce oF the ResIDeNtIaL coMMUNItIes MaRKet:

BRIsBaNe

IpsWIch

LoGaN

MoRetoN BaY

GoLD coast

second HALF 2012 | soUTH eAsT QUeensLAnd coMMUnITIes

Yarrabilba, Precinct one lend lease has begun delivery of the initial stages at its Yarrabilba project, which upon completion is expected to be one of the largest master planned communities in australia.

source: colliers international Research

• transaction volume increased with 1,640 vacant land sales in h1 2012.

• the weighted average median sale price declined to $215,239

• state Government initiates significant changes to planning policy.

KeY hIGhLIGhts

ResIDeNtIaL LaND MaRKet INDIcatoRs - FIRst haLF 2012

Region Weighted average sale price sold to Date Remaining Yield Number of projects

Brisbane $251,912 1,964 2,499 10

Ipswich $191,456 7,968 10,593 18

Logan $173,543 3,009 3,469 10

Moreton Bay $217,714 10,812 8,178 22

Gold coast $244,573 9,086 6,691 20

Sales Lift Across Most Areas

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SEQ Residential Lots Approved For Development

12 Months to March

Brisbane Ipswich Logan Moreton Bay Gold Coast

moreton Bay has the highest concentration of marketed projects and as a result, the area achieved the highest number of sales in h1 2012, at 27% of the total lots sold. over the 12 months to h1 there were approximately 2,995 vacant land sales across the identified estates. again, moreton Bay accounted for the majority on an annual basis at 29%.

hoUsING FINaNcedata from the aBs revealed queensland housing finance commitments improved in the first half of 2012. Growth of 2% saw 51,903 loans in h1 2012 with first home buyer activity rising to 10,286, a 10% increase on the previous period. commitments remained weighted towards the purchase of existing dwellings (84%) followed by the construction of new dwellings (12%) and the purchase of a new house (4%). interestingly, the proportion of finance commitments for the purpose of constructing or purchasing a new dwelling are both above their 10 year averages, it is only the proportion of commitments for the purchase of existing dwellings that has fallen below its 10 year average. although the new housing industry would welcome this trend, the number of finance commitments across the sector has been on a path of negative growth since the most recent peak in h1 2007.

Lot appRovaLsaccording to the latest release from the office of economic and statistical Research (oesR), the number of vacant lots approved for residential development declined 12% to 9,664 over the year to march 2012. the weaker result was in part due to subdued approval activity between January and march. over the same period, dwelling approvals in seq fell 17% to 7,526 in the 12 months ending in march 2012.

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Vacant Land Sales in SEQ


vacaNt LaND saLes IN seQ

source: colliers international Research

seQ ResIDeNtIaL Lots appRoveD FoR DeveLopMeNt

source: oesR / colliers international Research

coLLIeRs INteRNatIoNaL | p. 2

reseArcH & ForecAsT rePorT | second HALF 2012 | residentiAL i seq

source: colliers international Research / dept. transport and main Roads / seq infrastructure Plan

soUth east QUeeNsLaND INFRastRUctURe UpDate

Infrastructure project LGa Location status estimated completion Date current Description

RaIL

New Light Rail Gold coast southport to Broadbeach u/c stage one - 2014

a $1.8 billion project which will deliver a light rail service from Griffith university through southport, main Beach, sufers Paradise and terminating in Broadbeach.

Rail extension ipswich Richlands to springfield u/c late 2013

the project includes two train stations – one near Woodcrest college and one near the orion shopping centre, a 9.5km dual track rail line from Richlands to springfield, an auxiliary city-bound lane on the centenary highway and two crossings under the centenary highway from springfield station to the orion shopping centre.

Rail extension Gold coast Varsity lakes to coolangatta Planning unknown

a $1.2 billion extension to the existing line. upon completion the rail link will connect Varsity lakes with the Gold coast airport in coolangatta.

New Rail Line moreton Bay Petrie to Kippa-Ring concept design 2016

a 12.6km dual-track passenger line running between Petrie and Kippa-Ring, including six new stations at a cost of $1.15 Billion jointly funded by Federal, state and local Government.

RoaD

M1 Upgrade Gold coast nerang to tugun u/c 2014+ a $3.8 billon upgrade to six lanes to the m1 motorway from nerang to tugun, interchange upgrades currently underway.

pacific hwy Upgrade Gold coast Banora Point u/c late 2012a $359 million upgrade of 2.5km of the Pacific highway from Barneys Point Bridge through Banora Point to the tweed heads Bypass.

Legacy Way Brisbane toowong to Kelvin Grove u/c late 2014 a 4.6km twin two-lane tunnels running from toowong to Kelvin Grove

which will be owned and operated by the Bcc.

Northern Link Brisbane north Brisbane u/c 2012-15Part of the trasapex system of bypasses - primarily tunnels combining to form an inner city ring road. the project total cost is estimated at $1.7 billion.

Ipswich Motorway Upgrade ipswich Wacol to darra u/c 2014-15 $824 million upgrade to the ipswich motorway between Wacol and

darra from four to six lanes with the provision for eight in the future.

Logan Motorway Upgrade logan Planning 2016+ upgrade works to the logan motorway at an estimated cost of $4.3 billion.

otheR

University Gold coast coolangatta u/c 2021 a $500 million upgrade and extension as part of the southern cross university master Plan. Buildings B & c underway.

University Gold coast southport u/c 2013Griffith university health centre will consist of a 650 seat lecture theatre, research facility and biomedical research laboratories - $150 million.

hospital Gold coast southport u/c q4 2013the Gold coast university hospital is expected to supply approximately 750 beds over seven new buildings at a cost of $1.76 billion.

hospital ipswich ipwsich Planning 2013

$130 million expansion to the ipswich hospital including a two level extension of the existing clinical services Building (csB), the emergency department and refurbishing works to the out Patients Building.

power station ipswich swanbank Planning 2016+a $1.8 Billion gas-fired power station located close to ipswich, near the swanbank B coal-fired power station which is due to be replaced in april 2012.

Industrial/Business park ipswich Wacol Planning 2012-26 a $1 billion, 93ha industrial and business park on the site of the former sanananda army Barracks.



Brisbaneactivity in the Brisbane lGa was relatively flat in h1 2012 with little movement in transaction volumes or median sale price. across 10 surveyed projects there were a total of 193 vacant land sales and an additional 76 house and land packages sold. the focus of sales activity was in the southern corridor of the Brisbane lGa extending towards logan, where larger englobo parcels of land are being made available for development. there were approximately 239 new lots released to the market bringing the total available for sale to 296, less than 10% of the total available in seq.

the median sale price of projects surveyed declined 4% to $251,912 in the first half of 2012. this drop could be partly attributed to developers reducing lot prices in order to increase affordability, as a reflection of this, the median lot size fell to 530m2. the proportion of projects with a median lot size of less than 550m2 remained unchanged at 42%.

the limited availability of large englobo land parcels in the Brisbane lGa has led to a constrained future supply pipeline compared to surrounding areas. the southern corridor will be a focus of development activity with 56% of the future lots located to the south of Brisbane. Rochdale in particular has a high concentration of the estimated future supply with the expected delivery of over 1,200 low and medium density lots across two projects.

The rochedale estates With the delivery of 1,000 lots, the Rochedale estates accounts for 34% of future supply in Brisbane’s currently marketed projects.

*identified estates with successful survey responses comprising 100+ lots in total1 includes house and land Packages^ information not providedsource: colliers international Research

BRIsBaNe LGa MaRKet actIvItY ResIDeNtIaL estates*

estate Name suburb Year commenced total Lots sold to Date Remaining Yield (%) sold

hilltop carindale carindale 2011 157 24 133 15%

Forest park on Brookside doolandella 2008 247 143 104 58%

the village at Durack durack 2010 170 116 54 68%

Fitzgibbon chase Fitzgibbon 2009 914 320 594 35%

the sanctuary on Moggill moggill 2007 355 254 101 72%

circa1 nudgee 2011 145 54 91 37%

arise at Rochedale^ Rochedale 2011 475 85 390 18%

the Rochedale estates Rochedale 2010 1,000 138 862 14%

the parks stretton 2001 500 396 104 79%

Mossvale on Manly Wakerley 2002 500 434 66 87%

• the weighted average sale price across the surveyed projects fell to $251,912.

• there were 193 vacant land and 76 house and land package sales over h1 2012.

• Brisbane lGa accounted for 12% of all new vacant land sales in seq within estates comprising over 100 lots.

KeY hIGhLIGhts



IpswichFor the second consecutive half, transaction volumes increased across surveyed projects with 100 lots or more. over h1 2012 there were approximately 377 vacant land sales in 19 residential communities with the suburbs of augustine heights (134), springfield/Brookwater (106) and Redbank Plains (38) accounting for the majority of sales. Projects closer to central ipswich reported subdued levels of demand over the half. on an annual basis, the ipswich lGa made up a quarter of all vacant land sales in seq, equal to annualised volumes on the Gold coast and slightly less than moreton Bay.

there appeared to be some positive price movement in ipswich over h1 2012 with the weighted average median sale price increasing 5% in six months to $191,456. as a reflection of higher demand for smaller more affordable lots in the second half of 2011, the annualised median sale price declined by 2%. according to the completed surveys, ipswich was the most affordable region in seq with vacant land available at an average of $360/m2. the median lot size across projects that recorded any sales over the half was 532m2, 47% of those surveyed had a median size under 550m2.

the future supply of lots in existing and mooted projects is currently estimated at just over 15,000. Future development activity is set to follow current trends with the majority of lots in the ipswich supply pipeline located in the springfield-Ripley Valley corridor. this estimate excludes the potential supply of 50,000 mixed density dwellings in the ulda’s Ripley Valley urban development area.

springfield Lakes one of the older master planned communities in seq, springfield reached 50% completion at the end of June 2012.

• the weighted average sale price rose 5% over h1 2012 to $191,456.

• demand increased for small lots with 47% of projects reporting a median lot size less than 550m2.

• augustine heights achieved one of the highest sales rates at 23 vacant land sales per month.

KeY hIGhLIGhts

*identified estates with successful survey responses comprising 100+ lots in total^ information not providedsource: colliers international Research

IpsWIch LGa MaRKet actIvItY ResIDeNtIaL estates*


Brentwood Rise augustine heights 2007 1,517 470 1,047 31%

augustine heights augustine heights 2003 816 600 216 74%

the springs augustine heights 2009 276 105 171 38%

parkway Green augustine heights 2010 150 72 78 48%

savannah Woods Brassall 2007 750 208 542 28%

Brookwater Golf estate^ Brookwater n/a 850 n/a 850 0%

Fairways Brookwater Brookwater 2006 186 23 163 12%

sovereign pocket deebing heights 2010 752 80 672 11%

cunningham Rise Goodna 2009 211 100 111 47%

stanton park Karalee 2007 160 155 5 97%

park village Karalee 2012 150 0 150 0%

heritage Links leichhardt 2010 241 69 172 29%

essington Rise leichhardt 2010 160 36 124 23%

Riverwood north Booval 2008 154 142 12 92%

parklands at Raceview Raceview 2009 210 170 40 81%

Mount view^ Redbank Plains 2009 1,258 440 818 35%

Fernbrooke Ridge Redbank Plains 2010 1,120 502 618 45%

springfield Lakes springfield lakes 1999 9,600 4,796 4,804 50%



Logantransaction volumes in the logan lGa experienced significant growth with the first release of lend lease’s Yarrabilba Precinct one, comprising approximately 500 lots. during h1 2012 there were 192 new vacant land sales over eight estates. although logan has large tracts of englobo land, activity in the region remains somewhat subdued as a result of weakening purchaser sentiment over the last year. over the previous 12 months, logan accounted for the lowest volume of new land sales in seq at 10% of the total sold.

demand for small lots increased over the half resulting in a 13% decline in the weighted average median sale price, falling to $173,543. the average rate per square metre over h1 2012 was $402/m2.

to the west of logan central, the suburbs of new Beith and undullah are expected to see increased levels of supply. lend lease and Peet hold the most significant parcels of land in the Yarrabilba and Flagstone future urban development area’s and are expected to deliver approximately 26,000 lots over the respective project lives. lend lease has achieved development approval for the first eight stages consisting of approximately 500 lots at Yarrabilba.

stoneleigh reserve lend lease increased their marked presence in logan with the release of stoneleigh Reserve in h1 2012.

• the release of new projects saw transaction volumes increase 80% from the previous period.

• logan recorded the lowest weighted average median sale price at $173,543.

• a significant amount of future supply remains in the pipeline with over 35,000 lots to be delivered in the next 25 years.

KeY hIGhLIGhts

*identified estates with successful survey responses comprising 100+ lots in total ^ information not provided source: colliers international Research / RP data

LoGaN LGa MaRKet actIvItY ResIDeNtIaL estates*


Windaroo outlook^ Bahrs scrub 2008 250 209 41 84%

teviot Downs Greenbank 1995 2,100 984 1,116 47%

alberi park^ holmview 2008 225 203 22 90%

vale at holmview holmview 2011 580 80 500 14%

Riverbend Jimboomba 2006 130 48 82 37%

Flagstone estate Jimboomba 2008 426 310 116 73%

Jimboomba Woods Jimboomba 2008 498 59 439 12%

stoneleigh Reserve logan Reserve 2012 479 17 462 4%

Woodlands Waterford 2005 1,290 1,013 277 79%

Yarrabilba precinct one Yarrabilba 2012 500 86 414 17%



Moreton Baymoreton Bay was again the most active lGa in seq with 461 vacant land sales in h1 2012 according to completed surveys from 17 residential communities. colliers has identified an additional seven communities yielding over 100 vacant lots, however complete information was unavailable. transaction volumes would be expected to increase with the inclusion of results from some of the regions larger, more active developers. over the 12 months to h1 2012 moreton Bay accounted for 29% of all vacant land sales in seq, a trend that is set to continue in the short term.

the trend towards small lots in seq is most prevalent in moreton Bay with 85% of projects surveyed reporting a median lot size of less than 550m2. interestingly, about half of these recorded a median lot size less than 450m2. this is the result of escalating costs in land production which developers are responding to by reducing lot sizes. an increase in transaction volumes in combination with declining median lot sizes had little effect on price movement. the median sale price declined only slightly (2%) to $214,714, reflecting a rate per square metre of $477/m2.

at the end of h1 2012 there were an estimated 9,000 lots still to be developed in 24 existing projects with an additional 4,600 in various stages of future planning. the majority of future activity is located in the anzac avenue corridor to the east of the Bruce highway where some of the largest residential communities such as north lakes and capestone are currently being developed. the corridor to the west of the Bruce highway from Kallangur to caboolture will also be a focus of future development with close to 4,000 lots in the pipeline.

north Lakes the stockland estate maintained momentum with 41% of moreton Bay’s vacant land sales in h1 2012.

• moreton Bay achieved the highest number of sales in seq during h1 2012 accounting for 29% of the total.

• median prices remained relatively stable at $214,714, reflecting a rate per square metre of $478/m2.

• the eastern anzac avenue corridor is expected to be the focus of new development in the near term.

KeY hIGhLIGhts

*identified estates with successful survey responses comprising 100+ lots in total^infomation not providedsource: RP data / colliers international Research

MoRetoN BaY LGa MaRKet actIvItY ResIDeNtIaL estates*


trinity Waters Beachmere 2009 131 55 76 42%

Woodvale^ Burpengary 2011 244 n/a n/a n/a

Riverparks caboolture 2003 450 256 194 57%

central Lakes caboolture 2004 1,087 762 325 70%

elysian Grove caboolture 2008 258 244 14 95%

the Reserve caboolture 2012 195 18 177 9%

Riverbank caboolture south 2012 1,300 17 1,283 1%

alma heights dakabin 1996 660 522 138 79%

essencia dakabin 2010 274 145 129 53%

springbrook estate delaneys creek 2007 228 45 183 20%

pine River estate^ Griffin 2011 186 n/a n/a n/a

Freshwater Griffin 2008 880 445 435 51%

Riverbreeze Griffin 2012 183 31 152 17%

park vista mango hill 2011 480 24 456 5%

Northbrook mango hill 2012 120 0 120 0%

capestone mango hill 2012 1,900 45 1,855 2%

Forest Ridge narangba 1993 1,998 1,957 41 98%

Narangba heights^ narangba 2012 630 n/a n/a n/a

stone Ridge narangba 2011 1,150 120 1,030 10%

sandstone Lakes^ ningi n/a 211 n/a n/a n/a

North Lakes north lakes 1999 6,100 4,950 1,150 81%

Warner Lakes^ Warner 2004 1,596 1,176 420 74%



Gold Coastsales volumes across major communities on the Gold coast and tweed coast lifted almost 45% during the first half of 2012. a total of 438 sales were reported across 20 projects with the suburbs of upper coomera (120), Pimpama (90) and Kingscliff (84) recording the majority of land deals. Kingscliff recorded an increase of 280% on previous figures with the release of stages within the salt and seaside communities. ormeau Ridge at ormeau was the most active individual project surveyed with a total of 55 sales during h1 2012, followed by Gainsborough Greens at Pimpama with 50 sales.

Finance and infrastructure charges have been an on-going battle for developers over the past three or four years. Recent conversations with industry figures indicate that banks may be more willing to lend on development projects. the change in local council and the likelihood of reduced infrastructure changes going forward is also a positive for the development industry and is leading to a change in sentiment.

as reported in our h2 2011 report, dwelling approvals on the Gold coast have fallen to the lowest level in 16 years. the peak period was during 2003 and 2004 with levels of around 8,000 approvals being recorded. latest figures from oesR for the year ending June 2012 show a figure of approximately 2,300 – well below the ten year average of 5,766.

latest census data shows an increase of around 7,000 residents annually over the last five years. these new residents would have created demand for approximately 2,800 new dwellings each year. dwelling approval rates over the last two years have fallen well short of this demand and if this continues we will see a need for developers to bring forward the release of lots currently on hold.

the long term master planned communities of Pacific Pines and Varsity lakes have both sold out of developer stock. Pacific Pines achieved a sell out during the second half of 2011 and Varsity lakes followed during the first half of 2012. these projects were the last major master planned communities located in central Gold coast locations. With suitable sites to accommodate similar projects extremely scarce in centrally located positions, it is unlikely we will see projects on this scale in the foreseeable future. Future large scale master planned communities will most likely be located in the northern corridor and northern new south Wales.

seaside, Kingscliffe41 sales were achieved within seaside during h1 2012 with construction beginning on new homes within the first stage.

• there were 438 vacant land sales across the Gold coast and tweed region in h1 2012, almost 45% higher than h2 2011.

• ormeau Ridge was the strongest performing project with 55 lots sold during h1 2012.

• new dwelling approvals fell to lowest level in 16 years.

KeY hIGhLIGhts

*identified estates with successful survey responses comprising 100+ lots in total^ information not providedsource: colliers international Research

GoLD coast LGa MaRKet actIvItY ResIDeNtIaL estates*


varsity Lakes Varsity lakes 1999 4,500 4,500 0 100%

Gainsborough Greens Pimpama 2011 2,200 136 2,064 6%

highland Reserve upper coomera 2003 1,076 625 451 58%

Big sky coomera 2012 904 17 887 2%

ormeau Ridge ormeau 2010 900 237 663 26%

the observatory Reedy creek 2002 885 672 213 76%

pimpama Rivers stgs 12-15 Pimpama unknown 342 40 302 12%

Genesis coomera 2006 812 346 466 43%

Riverstone crossing upper coomera 2007 740 311 429 42%

coomera springs upper coomera 2004 600 421 179 70%

salt village Kingscliff 2003 550 523 27 95%

Riverlinks^ oxenford 2002 500 459 41 92%

coomera Retreat upper coomera 2007 399 220 179 55%

hundred hills murwillumbah 2007 315 180 135 57%

the village at casuarina Beach casuarina 2012 210 9 201 4%

seaside Kingscliff 2009 250 48 202 4%

stone creek upper coomera 2008 208 94 114 45%

the ecovillage at currumbin^ currumbin Valley 2006 147 116 31 79%

Longhill Rise Gilston 2007 132 131 1 99%

Brookside ormeau 2012 107 1 106 1%



source: cordell / colliers international Research

New Supply Pipeline•The estimated level of future supply in this

report is a reflection of remaining yields in existing estates in combination with land subdivisions over 100 lots in various stages of future planning.

•Futuresupplylevelsareconstantlychangingaslots are absorbed, development plans change and new applications are lodged, the figures indicated herein are a reflection of the current development pipeline.

•Thelevelofneartermsupplyisareflectionofrecent historical delivery rates and local authority projections.

•IpswichLGAhasthehighestlevelofneartermsupply, accounting for approximately 23% of the development pipeline.

•TheGoldCoastmakesup21%withtheMoretonBay and tweed lGa’s each making up 20% and 19% respectively.

•Logan and Brisbane LGA’s account for theremaining 17% of lots, however this estimate excludes the significant pipeline at Park Ridge, Flagstone city and remaining stages at Yarrabilba.

•Takingalongertermview,IpswichandLoganlGa’s have the highest concentration of future supply with the ulda designations at Ripley Valley, Flagstone and Yarrabilba.

•The advancement of these urban areas hasbeen slower than expected reportedly as a result of planning constraints and subdued demand for residential property.

•FocusingonthesouthernLogancorridor,ParkRidge to the west of logan Reserve is expected to see approximately 12,000 lots from the geographic growth south from logan central.

•DemandforlotsintheParkRidgecorridormaybe greater than those areas further south in Flagstone/Yarrabilba as services and infrastructure are already in place or currently being developed.

•Developershavereportedlimitedfundinganddelays with the council approval process as the key constraints to the progression of new land releases.

estIMateD pRopoRtIoN oF NeaR teRM FUtURe sUppLY BY LGa

Brisbane City

Ipswich City

Logan City

Moreton Bay Regional

Tweed Regional Council

Gold Coast City



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Demand and Median Prices for Vacant Land in SEQ

Brisbane Ipswich Logan Moreton Bay Gold Coast Median Sale Price (RHS)

General Land Market• Thenumberoftransactionsincreasedacross

all five lGas in the second half of 2011 with over 2,600 vacant land sales recorded, a 23% increase over six months. on an annualised basis, 2011 saw the lowest number of vacant land sales since 1988.

• Brisbane LGA saw the largest growth intransaction volumes, increasing 35% to 585, or 67% of the 10 year historical half yearly average.

• MoretonBaysawthesecondlargestincreasein transactions (26%) followed by the logan (24%), the Gold coast (17%) and ipswich (14%).

• Themediansalepriceofvacantlandincreased1% to $222,900 in h2 2011. Brisbane lGa saw the largest six monthly decline in median price falling by 6%.

• The median lot size continued to decline in2011 falling by approximately 8% over the 12 months to h2 2011. median lot sizes have been falling 2% on average, each year over the past 10 years.

• The trend towards smaller lots may be anindication of the prioritisation of affordability over lifestyle for many purchasers.

• Furthertothis,developersarenowdeliveringsmaller lots in an effort to maximise the feasibility of existing sites without compromising liveability.

source: Pds live / RP data / colliers international Research

DeMaND aND MeDIaN pRIces FoR vacaNt Lots IN seQ


GeNeRaL MaRKet INDIcatoRs vacaNt LaND

LGaMedian sale price Median sale price half Yearly annual

h1 11 h2 11 change change

Brisbane $291,500 $275,000 -6% -15%

Ipswich $183,000 $185,000 1% 3%

Logan $219,900 $210,000 -5% -4%

Moreton Bay $207,650 $205,000 -1% 0%

Gold coast $231,500 $235,000 2% -3%



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Demand and Median Prices For Houses in SEQ


Median Price (RHS)

General House Market• Thenumberofnewandestablishedhouse

sales increased 13% over h2 2011 with 15,460 transactions. on an annualised basis there were 29,193 sales over the 12 months to december 2011.

• For the third consecutive half-year, themedian sale price for new and established dwellings declined. at $445,000, this represents a 3% fall over the six months to h2 2011.

• Medianpricesfellacrossallfiveareasoverthe last six months of 2011. houses on the Gold coast experienced the largest fall, declining 5%.

• Transactionvolumesandmediansalepricesacross all identified lGas had inverse relationships. an indication that vendors may have begun to meet the market on price expectation.

• Thecorrectioninhousepricesappearstoberelated to market sentiment, which has been deteriorating over the past few years.

• A reduction in interest rates in the secondhalf of 2011 may have enticed some potential buyers to enter the housing market. however, it is likely that many buyers will be awaiting market sentiment to improve prior to committing to a purchase.


DeMaND aND MeDIaN pRIces FoR hoUses IN seQ


GeNeRaL MaRKet INDIcatoRs hoUses

LGaMedian sale price Median sale price half Yearly annual

h1 11 h2 11 change change

Brisbane $521,000 $510,000 -2% -6%

Ipswich $317,000 $307,500 -3% -4%

Logan $375,000 $360,000 -4% -5%

Moreton Bay $395,000 $380,000 -4% -7%

Gold coast $500,000 $477,000 -5% -6%



Outlookapprovals for the creation of new vacant lots and construction of private sector dwellings declined over the 12 months to march 2012. Population growth forecasts have been revised after the 2011 census revealed a lower than expected population increase over the last five years. the population growth in seq is expected to be relatively strong looking forward, and as a result, should place upward pressure on demand for accommodation.

the latest queensland budget has revealed new stimulus for the housing construction industry with the removal of the previous $7,000 grant for the purchase or construction of new and established dwellings. the new measure provides a $15,000 grant for first home buyers entering into a contract to purchase or build a new home only. the purchase of established dwellings is no longer an option under the new arrangements. this stimulus should provide some additional incentive for first home buyers to enter the residential communities market, especially in combination with incentives on offer direct from developers. although this new grant should stimulate some purchasers, perhaps more needs to be done in order to create greater demand for all new residential property.

significant changes to planning processes have been put forward by the state Government which sees the alteration, or abolition of up to 20 policies, including the removal of strategic cropping land and devolution of the state Planning Regulatory process. the major outcomes from these changes have been identified as the release of land previously designated as ‘open space’ becoming subdivisible and the potential to expedite the delivery of land through the development and planning process.

Prohibitive costs associated with land production, coupled with tighter lending conditions have been identified as barriers for new development projects and as a result, may constrain the new supply of land in seq. developers have continued to highlight infrastructure charges, insufficient infrastructure in certain regions and a convoluted planning process as major obstacles in land production. as a result of these challenges there is a significant amount of future supply in different stages of the planning process. colliers international estimates there are approximately 66,600 lots in the supply pipeline at both current and future projects in various stages of approval. this does not include initial estimates of supply with the ulda urban development areas of Yarrabilba, Flagstone and Ripley Valley which are expected to comprise 120,000 dwellings over the long term according to the government body.

colliers international does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. if you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections.

colliers international will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. coPYRiGht - colliers international 2012.

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Se queensland residential communities rfr h2 2012