Science & Politics of Global Warming

Carbon dioxide (CO2): major byproduct of burning hydrocarbons, such as coal and gas& primary cause of global warming.

Levels rising in atmosphere by 2-3 PPM per year.

http://unc.libraries.edu

James Hansen TED talk: Why I Must Speak Out on Climate Change

http://search.lib.unc.edu/filmfinder/search?R=UNCb7601909

• At current rate of increase, will exceed

• 500 PPM by 2050 = (twice pre-industrial levels).

• Most experts agree: world should take action now to insure levels do not rise above this level!!

• Given new data showing faster rate of warming, many now say we should set the bar lower – at 350 ppm.

Increases in other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, will bring the 2050 level to equivalent of 550 PPM of CO2.

Consensus estimate: 550 PPM will increase global temperatures by 2-4 degrees Celsius above today’s levels.

Mid-point of expected rise is half the difference between the temperatures of the last ice age and the early modern period!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rdLu7wiZOE&feature=fvwrel

Major trends anticipated:

•Coastal flooding due to sea-level rise; relocation of people in port cities & low-lying countries; regions

•Drought and desertification in many regions; Water shortages; changes in crop productivity

•More severe storms and extreme weather events: hurricanes, cold waves, floods, heat waves.

•Melting of arctic polar ice (speeds warming), changing northern ecosystems; melting of permafrost = could release much more methane

Many ecologists warn we are in early stages of a mass extinction event that will play out over the next 40 years as world’s animal and plant species fail to adapt in time to the rapid changes. Some think we may lose 40-50% of all species – drastically affecting human capacity for adaptation.

“Half the world’s tropical and temperate forests are now gone. . . Deforestation continues at rate of an acre per second . . .an estimated 90% of large predator fish are gone. 20% of the corals are gone & another 20% severely threatened. Species loss is 1000 fold faster than prior to this century.” --James Gustave Speth

Dean, Yale School of Forestry& Environmental Studies

Industrialized countries, especially U.S., are responsible for most existing CO2 in the atmosphere

Each US citizen = emits 20 tons of CO2 each year; (much higher than emissions per capita by Europeans, (eg. 12.5 tons/person in UK) & many times global average (eg. China and India, despite rapid growth, still have very low per capita emissions (4 tons and 2 tons per person, respectively).

Most countries in Kyoto Protocol have failed to meet their goals. Major stumbling block = govts respond to business sectors that fear competition from US multinationals if they cut back

Satellite photos of change in arctic sea ice in July – comparing same month in 1979 and 2007

Break up of ice bridge from Wilkins ice shelf to Charcot Island, Antarctica; Spring 2009

IPCC “Hockey Stick” graph – center of recent controversy

"The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence ...    Based on the analyses presented in the original papers by Mann et al. and this newer supporting evidence, the committee finds it plausible that the Northern Hemisphere was warmer during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period over the preceding millennium. “

National Academy of Sciences report(after review of data)

But the NAS Report continued:

“. . . less confidence can be placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al. (1999) that "the 1990s are likely the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium" because the uncertainties inherent in temperature reconstructions for individual years and decades are larger than those for longer time periods . . .”

(so long term trend was supported; caution urged in making predictions for individual years or decades)

Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt – comparing summer 2007 with 2006; classified by the Bush Administration, declassified by Obama Administration

Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt – comparing summer 2007 with 2006; classified by the Bush Administration, declassified by Obama Administration

Satellite photos of glacier and sea ice melt – comparing summer 2007 with 2006; classified by the Bush Administration, declassified by Obama Administration

Free trade agreements impede enforcement of international agreements on global warming

Under current WTO rules, a country that puts in place strict standards on CO2 emissions can be sued for restricting trade;

Eg. when Germany tried to restrict use of metal drink cans, it faced action from the European Commission, which has adopted neoliberal rules.

European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) was intended to allow trading of carbon credits – heavy polluters would pay for credits in early years, and greener industries would earn credits.

But system has failed -- countries felt pressure to issue nearly all the credits requested by polluting companies, reducing value of credits. Many polluters had more credits than they needed. --

Again opposition to regulation fueled by fear of competition w/ non-players (eg. US and China). Needed: a global agreement with teeth.

It’s simple math:

We can burn less than 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide and stay below 2°C of warming. Anything more than that risks catastrophe for life on earth.

The only problem? Fossil fuel corporations now have 2,795 gigatons in their reserves, five times the safe amount. And they’re planning to burn it all — unless we rise up to stop them.

350.org’s FossilFree campaign aims at getting colleges, universities and others to divest from the 200 publicly-traded companies that hold the vast majority of the world’s proven coal, oil and gas reserves. It also demand that these companies: •immediately to stop exploring for new hydrocarbons•stop lobbying to preserve their special breaks•pledge to keep 80% of their current reserves underground forever

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/fight-misinformation/global-warming-skeptic.html#.Ve3cWZdcBOY

Union of Concerned Scientists guide to climate denier think-tanks:

Bill McKibben’s websites –•350.Org Main organization•math.350.org “Do the Math” tour•gofossilfree.org FF Divestiture campaign

Other websites for climate change info and action:•thinkprogress.org/climate/ Joseph Romm•www.globalchange.gov U.S. Global Change Research Program•www.epa.gov/climatechange/ EPA Climate Change site•www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/ NRDC•www.c2es.org Center for Climate and Energy Solutions•www.climate.org Climate Institute – links including games and simulations•www.wmo.int World Meteorlogical Organization (UN)•www.world.org/weo/climate “100 Top Climate Change Sites”