Global Warming, Global Warming Policy and Mortality Rates

:

Indur M. GoklanyIndependent Scholar

http://goklany.orge-mail: igoklany@verizon.net

Fourth International Climate Change Conference Chicago, IL

May 16–18, 2010

2

Organization of Talk

• Empirical data– Excess winter deaths– Extreme events– Malaria– Hunger, cereal yields, cereal production– Life expectancy

• Ranking GW among other global health risks• Potential death & disease in developing

countries from biofuel production

3

Empirical Data

4

Mortality by Month, Various Industrialized Countries

Source: Falagas et al. (2009)

5

Excess Winter Deaths, Various Developed Countries

Country Excess Winter Deaths Basis

US 108,500 2008Canada 5,644 2006

UK 36,700 12/2008-11/2009 Australia 6,973 1997-2006

New Zealand 1,600 1980-2003 Japan 50,887 2006-07 France 24,938 1995-2006 excluding 2004

Italy 37,498 1950-2007 Spain 23,645 1960-70, 1975-2007

Sweden 4,034 1987-2007 Greece 5,820 1960-2005 Cyprus 317 1996, 1998-2000, 2002-2006

Sources: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009); CANSIM (2009); UKONS (2009); Falagas et al. (2009)

6

Excess Winter Deaths, England & Wales1950/51-2007/08

Source: UKONS (2009)

7

Shrinkage of the distribution of malariaTop: left, mid-19th century; right, 1945

Bottom: left, 1977; right, 2007Source: WHO (2008).

8

Chronic hunger in the developing world, 1969–2009(% of population)

Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

9

Cereal Yields and Production, 1961–2008Least Developed Countries & World

Source: FAO (2010)

10

Reasons for the increase of hungeraccording to FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009

• The 2006-2008 food price crisis• The global economic slowdown• Insufficient investment in agriculture• The increase is not a result of poor crop harvest

Source: http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs/multimedia0/presentation-the-state-of-food-insecurity/en/

11

Global Life Expectancy . Economic Development, and CO2 Emissions, 1760–2007

Source: Goklany (2010)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1760 1810 1860 1910 1960 2010

Life expectancy (yrs)G

DP/c

apita

, Po

pula

tion,

CO

2

GDP/cap (1990 International $)Population (millions)CO2 (MMT-Carbon)Life expectancy (yrs, RH)

12

Ranking Global Warming Among Global Health Risks

Global Health Priorities — 2004 Data

019

0814

06

08

55

20

12

03

01

01

00

916961

644943

443541

2827

2524

2219

14161111

898

75

0 20 40 60 80 100

UnderweightUnsafe sex Alcohol use

Unsafe water, sanitation, …High blood pressure

Tobacco useSub-optimal breastfeeding

High blood glucoseIndoor smoke from solid fuels

Overweight and obesityPhysical inactivity

High cholesterolOccupational risks

Vitamin A deficiencyIron deficiency

Low fruit and vegetable intakeZinc deficiencyIllicit drug use

Unmet contraceptive needChild sexual abuse

Lead exposureUrban outdoor air pollution

Unsafe health care injectionsGlobal climate change

Lost DALYs (millions)

IndustrializedDeveloping

1515

677

5020002

02

10000000

00

6036

2825

2121

232122

2019

1512

109

74432211

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

High blood pressureTobacco use

High blood glucosePhysical inactivity

Overweight and obesityHigh cholesterol

Unsafe sex Alcohol use

UnderweightIndoor smoke from solid fuels

Unsafe water, sanitation, hygieneLow fruit and vegetable intake

Sub-optimal breastfeedingUrban outdoor air pollution

Occupational risksVitamin A deficiency

Zinc deficiencyUnsafe health care injections

Iron deficiencyIllicit drug use

Unmet contraceptive needLead exposure

Global climate changeChild sexual abuse

Deaths (hundred thousands)

IndustrializedDeveloping

Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009) 13

14

Potential Death & Disease in Developing Countries From Biofuel Production

15

Identifying Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)

Ratio of Low Income to Lower Middle IncomeDeaths per capita Disease Burden per capita

1 Global climate change 13.2 11.92 Underweight 13.1 10.73 Zinc deficiency 9.3 9.04 Vitamin A deficiency 8.9 9.05 Unsafe sex 8.1 7.96 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene 6.1 5.27 Unmet contraceptive need 8.7 4.78 Indoor smoke from solid fuels 1.9 4.79 Sub-optimal breastfeeding 4.1 4.0

10 Iron deficiency 5.1 2.611 Child sexual abuse 1.8 1.812 Lead exposure 1.7 1.613 High cholesterol 1.1 1.314 High blood glucose 1.2 1.115 Unsafe health care injections 0.7 1.116 Physical inactivity 0.9 1.117 Illicit drug use 1.3 1.018 Low fruit and vegetable intake 0.8 0.919 Occupational risks 0.7 0.920 High blood pressure 0.7 0.921 Urban outdoor air pollution 0.5 0.822 Alcohol use 0.6 0.623 Tobacco use 0.6 0.624 Overweight and obesity 0.5 0.6

Death & Disease From Diseases of Poverty — 2004Source: WHO, Global Health Risks (2009)

Risk Factor Lost DALYs (000s) Deaths (000s)

Industrial Developing Industrial Developing

1 Global climate change 3 5,401 0 141

2 Underweight 77 90,606 0 2,225

3 Zinc deficiency 3 15,577 0 433

4 Vitamin A deficiency 1 22,098 0 651

5 Unsafe sex 1,081 68,937 44 2,311

6 Unsafe water, sanitation, hygiene 174 64,066 7 1,901

Sub-Total (1 through 6) 1,340 266,684 51 7,662

7 Unmet contraceptive need 17 11,485 0 163

8 Indoor smoke from solid fuels 6 41,003 0 1,964

9 Sub-optimal breastfeeding 328 43,514 8 1,239

10 Iron deficiency 572 19,161 8 265

Sub-Total (1 through 10) 2,262 381,847 67 11,294

16

17

Death & Disease in Developing Countriesper Million People in Extreme Poverty

Poverty Headcount (millions)

Threshold Comment Source

2004 969 Old Chen & Ravallion (2007)

2004 1,454* New * New = 1.5 x Old Chen & Ravallion (2008)

In 2004 due to 6 diseases of poverty, according to WHO (2009)

Death & disease rate per million living in extreme poverty

7.7 million deaths 5,270 deaths per million

267 million lost DALYs 183,000 lost DALYs per million

Death & Disease in Developing Countries in 2010Due to Biofuel Production

Poverty Headcount (millions)

Comment Source

2005 1,374 Differences due to country coverage

WB Global Economic Prospects (2009)

2005 1,208 De Hoyos & Medvedev (2009)

2010 798 No biofuel production, Drop due to economic growth

D&M (2009)

2010 +32 Increase due to biofuel production

D&M (2009)

Increase in Deaths = 192,000Increase in Burden of Disease = 6.7 million

18

19

Potential Death & Disease due to Biofuel Production and Global Warming

Deaths Burden of Disease

Biofuel Production

(2010)

Global Warming

(2004)

Biofuel Production

(2010)

Global Warming

(2004)

192,000 141,000 6.7 million 5.4 million

20

Findings In developed world, more people die in winter, but trend is

downward due to greater wealth and fuel affordability Deaths and death rates from extreme weather events,

malaria, hunger, and other climate sensitive health risks have declined over the long term

Mortality Rates Life Expectancies GW ranks below the top 20 global health problems today,

and will advance only if these other risks are solved first Death and disease from biofuel production more likely to

be real than those estimated due to GW Increased death and disease from biofuel production most

likely exceeds any reductions from reduced GW

21

Conclusions GW or its underlying human causes (if any) have not

increased death and disease in the aggregate. In fact, they are probably responsible for the worldwide

decreases in mortality rates and increase in life expectancy over the last century.

GW policies may already have killed more than they have saved

And may kill even more if they reduce energy use prematurely and/or economic development, particularly for the less well-off

22

THE ENDSupplemental slides follow

23

Daily Mortality by MonthU.S.A., 2001-08

Source: Goklany (2009a) based on USNVSS (2009)

24

Daily Mortality by MonthCanada, 2001-06

Source: Goklany (2009a) based on CANSIM (2009)

25

Global Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900–2008

Source: Goklany (2009b)

26

Chronic hunger, Worldwide1969/71–2008/09

Source: FAO, State of Food Insecurity 2009.

27

US Life Expectancy, CO2 Emissions, Consumption and Economic Development, 1900–2006

Source: Goklany (2010)

0102030405060708090100

0123456789

10

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Metals &

Organica (1900=1)

Life Expectancy (yrs)Po

pula

tion,

Affl

uenc

e, C

O2

(190

0=1) CO2 (LH) Population (LH)

Affluence (LH) Life Exp (RH)Metals (RH) Organics (RH)

28

Contribution of Global Warming to Mortality from Hunger, Malaria & Flooding, 2085

4,385

2,072

6,137

3,134

2,018308

750

228

150

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

A1FI (4.0°C) A2 (3.3°C) B2 (2.4°C) B1 (2.1°C)

1990 2085

mor

talit

y (0

00s)

Δmortality, due to GW mortality, no GW

total2,380

total6,887

total3.362

total2,168

Source: Goklany (2009b)