Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Planforfor

Climate ServicesClimate Services

Jiayu ZhouJiayu Zhou

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition• Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits• Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps • Key SolutionsKey Solutions• Outstanding R&D Outstanding R&D

NeedsNeeds• SummarySummary

Climate Climate

ServicesServices

Observation

Forecast

Outre

ach

• Jiayu ZhouJiayu Zhou NWS/OSTNWS/OST

• Bob LivezeyBob Livezey NWS/OCWWSNWS/OCWWS

• Fiona HorsfallFiona Horsfall NWS/OCWWSNWS/OCWWS

• Ed OEd O’’leniclenic NWS/NCEP/CPCNWS/NCEP/CPC

• Richard W. ReynoldsRichard W. Reynolds NESDIS/NCDCNESDIS/NCDC

• Martin P. HoerlingMartin P. Hoerling OAR/CDCOAR/CDC

• Simon MasonSimon Mason IRI/UCSDIRI/UCSD

Climate ServicesClimate ServicesTeam CompositionTeam Composition

Climate Services Climate Services Vision and BenefitsVision and Benefits

VisionVision• Provide Seamless Climate, Provide Seamless Climate,

Weather and Water Products Weather and Water Products and Servicesand Services

• Expand Climate Products Expand Climate Products and Services Regionally and and Services Regionally and LocallyLocally

• $ Millions in Savings by Better Planning (Energy, Agriculture, Fishery, Sales, Recreation, Etc.)

• Mitigate Losses from Wildfires Caused by Severe Drought• Save Lives and Reduce Property Damages Caused by Major Climate

Anomalies (Drought, Flood, Heat Waves, and Winter Blizzards)

Based on J. Laver (2002)

Fore

cast

Lea

d Ti

me

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Protectio

n of Life

&

Property

Flood Mitig

ation

& Navigati

on

Space O

peratio

n

Transp

ortatio

n

Benefits

Fire W

eather

Hydropower

Agricultu

re

Recrea

tion

Reserv

oir Contro

l

Ecosy

stemEnerg

y

Health

Commerce

State/L

ocal P

lanning

Environmen

t

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

Forecast UncertaintyYears

Seasons

Months

2 WeekI.C

.sB.C.s

Climate ServicesClimate ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA Performance Measure

Current Skill

FY07 Goal Target

FY12 Target

U.S. Seasonal U.S. Seasonal Temperature ForecastTemperature Forecast 2020 2323 2525 2727

Proposed Performance Measure

Current Skill

FY07 Target

FY12 Target

6 Month Lead Sea 6 Month Lead Sea Surface Temperature Surface Temperature Forecast in El NiForecast in El Niñño Areao Area

76%76% 82%82% 84%84%

8-14 Day U.S. 8-14 Day U.S. Temperature ForecastTemperature Forecast 55 77 99

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Accuracy Accuracy

Climate Services Climate Services Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps

• Influence of Land Surface Properties (Soil Moisture, Snow, Vegetation, Topography, Etc.)

• Impact of Global Ocean Conditions (SST, Sea Ice, Etc.)

• Internal Variability of Climate Modes (MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, Interdecadal Variations, Etc.)

• Understanding of Warm Season Climate System and Predictability

Extreme EventsExtreme Events

Tropical StormsTropical Storms

Droughts/FloodsDroughts/Floods

Trends

(Based on W. Higgins 2002)(Based on W. Higgins 2002)

Linking Climate with Weather & Water

Land

Ocean

Atmosphere

Climate Change

Climate Variability

Tropics (Tropics (MJO, ENSO)

Extratropics (Extratropics (AO/NAO)

Weather

Climate ServicesClimate Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

GAPGAP SolutionSolution ImpactImpact

Land Surface Properties

• COOP, CRN, ASOS, Radar• Satellite Upgrades (Surface Radiation

and Precipitation Observations)• Improved NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-

LDAS (NCEP Core Project)

• Increased Predictability from Land-”Memory” and Feedback

Global Ocean Conditions

• Increased Moored and Drifting Buoys• Improved Satellite Observation (IR +

Microwave) for SST, Surface Wind, Sea Level Height and Sea Ice

• Upgraded GFDL Ocean Model/Data Assimilation System (GODAS Work Plan)

• Improved Sea Ice Model

• Increased Predictability from ENSO and SST Anomalies in Global Ocean

Internal Variability of Climate Modes

• Improved Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling

• Improved Model Dynamics and Physics (SFM/GFS)

• Empirical Prediction Systems

• Improve Week 2 to Seasonal Forecast by Better Understanding of Climate Variability

Warm Season Climate System and Predictability

• Utilize Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

• Improved Regional and Continental Scale Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts

Climate Services Climate Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

WSR-88D, TRMM

COOP Modernization Program, CRN, ASOS Upgrade

AER LW Rad AER LW Rad T254L64T254L64

GPMObservations

Data Assimilation / Models

Applications

Training

POES, GOESGIFTS,

GOES-O NPOESS-1, GOES-P GOES-R

Expand Surface and Deep Ocean Buoy Network

T62L28, 21 Mem T126L64T126L64 41 mem41 mem

40kmL6040kmL6040kmL5040kmL50100kmL50, Jason, 100kmL50, Jason, Argo, QuikSCATArgo, QuikSCAT Ocean DAS

Seasonal Fcst Model

Medium-Range Fcst Model

Surface Observation

RadarSatellite

Ocean Buoy

SOO/COMET Course

Improve Micro-Improve Micro-physicsphysics 35kmL10035kmL10040kmL8040kmL80

Add 2 Add 2 TracersTracers

Projects Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 Deployment

OTE

DTE

R&D

Ocean Model

MOM1 (Part of Pacific only) Global MOM3 Global MOM4

Land Sfc Model

Unified NOAH LSM

GOES-QGOES-N

Ice ModelHemispheric,

25km Integrated into Basin & Integrated into Basin & Regional Scale Ocean ModelRegional Scale Ocean Model

Increased Spatial Resolution

New Physics and New Data Sources

41 Mem41 Mem31 Mem31 MemImprove physicsImprove physics

50kmL5050kmL50 35kmL6035kmL60Improve Improve physicsphysics

45km45kmL64L64

Climate Services Climate Services Outstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• Improve Observations over Land and Ocean.Improve Observations over Land and Ocean.• Unified NOAH Land Model with Land Data Assimilation and Climate Unified NOAH Land Model with Land Data Assimilation and Climate

Models from Regional to Global Time-Scales (Models from Regional to Global Time-Scales (NCEP Core ProjectNCEP Core Project).).• Improve Global Ocean Data Assimilation by Upgrading GFDL Improve Global Ocean Data Assimilation by Upgrading GFDL

Modular Ocean Model and Incorporating Satellite and In Situ Modular Ocean Model and Incorporating Satellite and In Situ Observations (Observations (GODAS Work PlanGODAS Work Plan).).

• Improve the Ocean-Land Surface-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Improve the Ocean-Land Surface-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics (Advanced Dynamics and Physics (Emerging NCEP SFM/GFSEmerging NCEP SFM/GFS).).

• Develop Empirical Prediction System for MJO-Related Impacts on Develop Empirical Prediction System for MJO-Related Impacts on Precipitation and Surface Temperature at Week 2-4.Precipitation and Surface Temperature at Week 2-4.

• Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAMENAME).).• Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water

Resource Applications.Resource Applications.• Develop a Priori-Skill-Based Objective Blending Forecast Develop a Priori-Skill-Based Objective Blending Forecast

Technique.Technique.

Climate ServicesClimate Services SummarySummary

2007 20122002

Impr

ovin

g Fo

reca

sts

and

Serv

ices

Impr

ovin

g Fo

reca

sts

and

Serv

ices

VisionTo Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• Conduct North American Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

• Develop Empirical Prediction Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast System for Week 2-4 forecast

• Develop Regional Climate Model Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource ApplicationsResource Applications

• Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS

• Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys

• Improve Satellite Observation for SST

• VOS/ASAP

• Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS

• Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS

• Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics

• Develop Objective Blending Develop Objective Blending Forecast TechniquesForecast Techniques

• AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

• Potential Initiative ThemesPotential Initiative Themes

• Primary Partners/CustomersPrimary Partners/Customers

• Key Products / ServicesKey Products / Services

• S & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap

• ReferencesReferences

Climate Services Climate Services Back-up InformationBack-up Information