Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

ForFor

National Digital Forecast DatabaseNational Digital Forecast Database

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

ForFor

National Digital Forecast DatabaseNational Digital Forecast Database

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 18, 2002September 18, 2002

Kevin Johnston

OutlineOutline

What is the NDFD?What is the NDFD?

How is NDFD Produced-New How is NDFD Produced-New Forecast ParadigmForecast Paradigm

Why We Are Doing NDFD? Why We Are Doing NDFD?

Current Development Status Current Development Status

Vision Vision

ChallengesChallenges

Next StepsNext Steps

What is the NDFD?What is the NDFD?

A Database That:A Database That:

Contains a Seamless Mosaic of Official NWS Contains a Seamless Mosaic of Official NWS Digital ForecastsDigital Forecasts

Is Available to Users and Partners-Public and Is Available to Users and Partners-Public and PrivatePrivate

Allows Users and Partners to Create Wide Allows Users and Partners to Create Wide Range of Text, Graphic, and Image ProductsRange of Text, Graphic, and Image Products

User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products

How is NDFD Produced?

– Interactive– Collaborative– Information

Oriented

NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products

TextText

GraphicGraphic

DigitalDigital

VoiceVoice

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%.

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.

SNOW LIKELY ABOVE

2500 FEET. SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY

LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO

2 INCHES ABOVE 2500

FEET. COLDER WITH

HIGHS 35 TO 40.

SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO

10 MPH SHIFTING TO

THE

SOUTHWESTEARLY

THIS AFTERNOON.

CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast

Database Database

Field Field OfficesOffices

National National CentersCentersCollaborateCollaborate

Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus

National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance

GridsGrids

Why Are We Doing NDFDWhy Are We Doing NDFD??

Increase the Usefulness of Increase the Usefulness of Government Forecasts by Government Forecasts by Communicating Forecaster’s Communicating Forecaster’s Mental Image of Weather Mental Image of Weather Situation in Greater Detail Situation in Greater Detail

– Custom ApplicationsCustom Applications

– Decision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems

– Along a PathAlong a Path

– Text in Multiple LanguagesText in Multiple Languages

NDFD Current Development StatusNDFD Current Development Status

Ingesting 5 km 2-Dimensional Grids of Weather Ingesting 5 km 2-Dimensional Grids of Weather Elements From Field Offices and Creating Elements From Field Offices and Creating Regional and National MosaicsRegional and National Mosaics

Available Every 3 Hours Out to 72 Hours and Every 12 Hours Available Every 3 Hours Out to 72 Hours and Every 12 Hours for Days 4-7; Updated Hourlyfor Days 4-7; Updated Hourly

Performing Consistency Checks and AnalysisPerforming Consistency Checks and Analysis

FTP Access Via Central ServerFTP Access Via Central Server

Internet Web Design BeginningInternet Web Design Beginning

NDFD Vision NDFD Vision A Seamless Database of InformationA Seamless Database of Information

ObservationsObservations

AnalysesAnalyses

ForecastsForecasts

Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information

Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings

Interrogation and Mining Tools Allow Interrogation and Mining Tools Allow Users to Exploit Database for Any Users to Exploit Database for Any Application or PurposeApplication or Purpose

NDFD Vision (Continued)NDFD Vision (Continued)

• Probabilistic Forecast ElementsProbabilistic Forecast Elements

• Objects to Define Aviation Objects to Define Aviation Meteorological Features and Meteorological Features and AreasAreas

• Vertical Dimension ( 3D grids) Vertical Dimension ( 3D grids)

• Additional Weather Elements for Additional Weather Elements for Aviation, Marine, Climate, etcAviation, Marine, Climate, etc

• Dissemination (FTP Access, Dissemination (FTP Access, Interactive-Web Display)Interactive-Web Display)

• Higher Resolution in Time and Higher Resolution in Time and Space Space

• Higher Refresh Rate Higher Refresh Rate

ChallengesChallenges

Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Forecast Information in the Vertical Forecast Information in the Vertical Dimension Dimension

Immediate Accessibility by Users for Immediate Accessibility by Users for Updates of Forecasts Updates of Forecasts

Information Technology is Transforming How We Do Business OperationallyInformation Technology is Transforming How We Do Business Operationally

How Best to Evolve the Forecast Division of Labor to How Best to Evolve the Forecast Division of Labor to Insure Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Information?Insure Consistent, Accurate, and Timely Information?

NDFD Next StepsNDFD Next Steps

Establish Strategic Planning Team to Establish Strategic Planning Team to Develop Roadmap (Tasks and Milestones) Develop Roadmap (Tasks and Milestones) to Meet Service Requirements and Visionto Meet Service Requirements and Vision

Roadmap Presented to Corporate Board Roadmap Presented to Corporate Board for Approvalfor Approval

March 2003March 2003