Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforWinter Weather ServicesWinter Weather Services

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforWinter Weather ServicesWinter Weather Services

Sam ContornoSam Contorno

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition

• Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

• Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps

• Key SolutionsKey Solutions

• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs

• SummarySummary

Winter Weather ServicesWinter Weather ServicesTeam CompositionTeam Composition

• Sam Contorno – NWS/OSTSam Contorno – NWS/OST

• Mark Tew – NWS/OCCWSMark Tew – NWS/OCCWS

• Marty Ralph – OAR/ETLMarty Ralph – OAR/ETL

• Jack Dostalek – NESDIS/CIRAJack Dostalek – NESDIS/CIRA

• John Cortinas – OAR/NSSL/CIMMSJohn Cortinas – OAR/NSSL/CIMMS

• Andy Edman – NWS/WR SSDAndy Edman – NWS/WR SSD

• Paul Sisson – NWS/WFO BTVPaul Sisson – NWS/WFO BTV

• Jeff Waldstreicher – NWS/ERJeff Waldstreicher – NWS/ER

• Peter Manousos – NWS/NCEP/HPCPeter Manousos – NWS/NCEP/HPC

• Allen White – OAR/ETLAllen White – OAR/ETL

• Paul Neiman – OAR/ETLPaul Neiman – OAR/ETL

• Paul Stokols – NWS/OCCWSPaul Stokols – NWS/OCCWS

Winter Weather ServicesWinter Weather ServicesVision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

Vision

• Winter Storm Warning Lead Time > 24 Hrs

• Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days

Vision

• Winter Storm Warning Lead Time > 24 Hrs

• Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days

• Large Winter Storms Result in Losses of $Billions and Influences Regional/National Economy.

• Better Information = Better Decisions by Public Prior to Arrival of Inclement Wx• $ Millions in Savings for Public Works & Transportation Sector

Winter WeatherWinter WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA Existing GPRA Performance MeasurePerformance Measure

FY01SkillFY01Skill FY07 GoalFY07 Goal FY12 Target FY12 Target

Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning Lead TimeLead Time

13 Hours13 Hours 15 Hours15 Hours 20 Hours20 Hours

Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning PODPOD

90%90% 90%90% 94%94%

Proposed Proposed Performance MeasurePerformance Measure

FY01 SkillFY01 Skill FY07 TargetFY07 Target FY12 TargetFY12 Target

Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning FARFAR

27%27% 26%26% 23%23%

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Winter WeatherWinter WeatherKey Information GapsKey Information Gaps

• More Accurate Cyclone Track: More Accurate Cyclone Track: More Precise Position of More Precise Position of Precipitation Cutoff and Precipitation Cutoff and Rain/Snow Line/Snow LevelRain/Snow Line/Snow Level

• Limited Coastal and Offshore Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft Observations Aloft

• Understanding of Model Understanding of Model Guidance UncertaintyGuidance Uncertainty

• More Accurate Identification of More Accurate Identification of Precipitation Type, Cloud Precipitation Type, Cloud Microphysical Info, and Vertical Microphysical Info, and Vertical Distribution of MoistureDistribution of Moisture

• More Accurate Identification of More Accurate Identification of Mesoscale Snow Bands and Mesoscale Snow Bands and Orographic EffectsOrographic Effects

Winter WeatherWinter Weather Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpact

More Accurate Cyclone More Accurate Cyclone Track; Rain/Snow Line; Track; Rain/Snow Line; Snow LevelSnow Level

• Advanced GFS/8 km WRFAdvanced GFS/8 km WRF• Adv Data Assim/Sat UpgradesAdv Data Assim/Sat Upgrades • Dual Polarization Dual Polarization • Profiler Snow-level Detection Profiler Snow-level Detection

8 km WRF: Rain/Snow 8 km WRF: Rain/Snow Line Resolved within 30 Line Resolved within 30 km (50 km today)km (50 km today)

Limited Coastal and Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Offshore Observations AloftAloft

• Targeted ObservationsTargeted Observations• Coastal and Buoy Profilers Coastal and Buoy Profilers • Satellite UpgradesSatellite Upgrades

Improved NWP; Improved Improved NWP; Improved Winter Storm Warning Winter Storm Warning Lead Time and PODLead Time and POD

Probabilistic; Range of Probabilistic; Range of UncertaintiesUncertainties

• Weather-Climate ConnectionWeather-Climate Connection• Advanced EnsemblesAdvanced Ensembles• Advanced Data AssimilationAdvanced Data Assimilation

Increased Certainty and Increased Certainty and Consistency of Forecasts; Consistency of Forecasts; Longer Range ForecastsLonger Range Forecasts

ID of Precipitation Type, ID of Precipitation Type, Microphysical Info, Microphysical Info, Vertical Distribution of Vertical Distribution of MoistureMoisture

• Dual PolarizationDual Polarization• GPS, MDCRS, Satellite UpgradesGPS, MDCRS, Satellite Upgrades• Decision Assistance Tools (e.g., Decision Assistance Tools (e.g.,

Improved Precip Type Algorithm)Improved Precip Type Algorithm)• Cloud Microphysics SchemesCloud Microphysics Schemes

Better, Precise Forecasts Better, Precise Forecasts of Precip Type/Amountof Precip Type/Amount

More Accurate More Accurate Monitoring of Meso Monitoring of Meso Snow Bands and Snow Bands and Orographic EffectsOrographic Effects

• Meso SnowBand TechniqueMeso SnowBand Technique• Improved Understanding of Improved Understanding of

Physical ProcessesPhysical Processes

Finer-Scale Forecasts of Finer-Scale Forecasts of Heavy Snow/IcingHeavy Snow/Icing

Winter Weather Winter Weather Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Current Programmatic PhaseCurrent Programmatic Phase

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

Dual Polarization Dual Polarization

Targeted Obs.Targeted Obs.

8km WRF*8km WRF* Advanced EnsemblesAdvanced EnsemblesAdvanced EnsemblesAdvanced Ensembles

Weather Event SimulatorWeather Event Simulator

Meso Snowband TechniqueMeso Snowband Technique

DeploymentDeployment

OTEOTE

DTEDTE

R&DR&D

ObservationsObservations

DA/ModelsDA/Models

ForecastTechniquesForecastTechniques

TrainingTraining

Satellite UpgradesSatellite UpgradesSatellite UpgradesSatellite Upgrades

Snow Level Detection AlgorithmSnow Level Detection AlgorithmSnow Level Detection AlgorithmSnow Level Detection Algorithm

Precip Type Algorithms*Precip Type Algorithms*Precip Type Algorithms*Precip Type Algorithms*

Winter Weather & NWP PDSWinter Weather & NWP PDS

Weather-Climate ConnectionWeather-Climate Connection

GFSGFSSR EnsemblesSR Ensembles

MDCRS-WVSS2MDCRS-WVSS2

GPS-IPWGPS-IPW

Winter WeatherWinter WeatherOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• Develop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different Develop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different Precipitation Types/Measure Snow DepthPrecipitation Types/Measure Snow Depth

• Develop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts Develop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts of Severity of Large-Scale Winter Stormsof Severity of Large-Scale Winter Storms

• Improve Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Improve Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical Processes that Lead to Heavy Winter Precipitation EventsProcesses that Lead to Heavy Winter Precipitation Events

• Improve Understanding of Orographic Effects on Improve Understanding of Orographic Effects on Mesoscale Distribution of Winter PrecipitationMesoscale Distribution of Winter Precipitation

• Develop Artificial Intelligence Systems to Forecast Develop Artificial Intelligence Systems to Forecast Snowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant IcingSnowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant Icing

• Develop Improved Collaborative Forecast ToolsDevelop Improved Collaborative Forecast Tools

• Develop Improved Verification ProceduresDevelop Improved Verification Procedures

Winter WeatherWinter Weather SummarySummary

20072007 2012201220022002

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• Precipitation Type Sensors Precipitation Type Sensors

• Probabilistic Forecast Techniques Probabilistic Forecast Techniques

• Artificial Intelligence to Detect Artificial Intelligence to Detect Heavy Snowbands Heavy Snowbands

• Understanding of Mesoscale and Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical ProcessesMicrophysical Processes

• Deploy High Resolution, More Accurate Models

• Enhance Decision Assistance Tools

• Expand Targeted Observations

• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques

• Deploy Dual Polarization/Satellite Upgrades

Vision

Lead Times > 24 Hrs; Prob. Guidance 10 Days

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Continuous Training

Back-up InformationBack-up Information

• General PublicGeneral Public

• Emergency ManagersEmergency Managers

• Federal/State/Local Governments Federal/State/Local Governments

• Transportation IndustriesTransportation Industries

• International InterestsInternational Interests

• Educational Organizations/Institutions of Higher LearningEducational Organizations/Institutions of Higher Learning

• MediaMedia

• Private Sector Weather ForecastersPrivate Sector Weather Forecasters

Primary Customers/PartnersPrimary Customers/Partners

Key Products/ServicesKey Products/Services

• Winter Weather Watches/WarningsWinter Weather Watches/Warnings

• Zone Forecasts Zone Forecasts

• Winter Weather Advisories/OutlooksWinter Weather Advisories/Outlooks

• Public Information StatementsPublic Information Statements

• Heavy Snow/Icing DiscussionsHeavy Snow/Icing Discussions

• Probabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing ForecastsProbabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing Forecasts

• Short-term (1-6h) Winter Weather DiscussionShort-term (1-6h) Winter Weather Discussion

Profiler Snow-Level DetectionProfiler Snow-Level DetectionSnow Advisory raised to Winter Storm WarningSnow Advisory raised to Winter Storm Warning

Prototype profiler snow-level product Prototype profiler snow-level product showed 2700 ft snow level at the showed 2700 ft snow level at the coast, 1300 ft lower than the snow coast, 1300 ft lower than the snow level that had been predicted level that had been predicted before landfall.before landfall.

NWS’ Portland OR SOO (Bill NWS’ Portland OR SOO (Bill Schneider) upgraded earlier Snow Schneider) upgraded earlier Snow Advisory to a Winter Storm Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning based on this lower snow Warning based on this lower snow level and passes being at 4000 ft.level and passes being at 4000 ft.

Forecaster’s use of these data Forecaster’s use of these data increased warning lead time by 15 increased warning lead time by 15 h in this case and increased POD h in this case and increased POD by avoiding a miss.by avoiding a miss.

Predicted snow level