Satya Brink, Ph. D.

Learning Policy Directorate, HRSD

A presentation prepared for the Symposium:

Trends, Shifts, Cliffs – Program Renewal in Colleges and Institutes

Vancouver

February 1-3, 2004

Research Evidence for Planning the Future of Community Colleges in

Canada

Overview

• Brief introduction of research in learning in HRSD

• The relationship between learning and work• The changing context for community colleges• Opportunities for community colleges

Research Evidence for Planning the Future of Community Colleges in Canada

Research Imperatives for Lifelong Learning

Period of formal education

Learning exclusive to young ages

Learning for traditional occupations

Learning and work combined

Learning for knowledge economy

Over life course

Changes in Learning

Institutions focussed

Determinants/proxies

Curriculum based assessments

Description

Learner focused

Skills assessments

Explanation

Outcomes

Changes in Research

Traditional Learning Lifelong Learning

Summary of Pathways of 18-20-Year-olds, December 1999

Post-Secondary Education

% Employed Full-time

% Employed Part-time

Labour Market

% Not Working

GRADUATES LEAVERS CONTINUERS

High School

GRADUATES

CONTINUERS

DROPOUTS*

Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey (18-20 years old cohort)

70%75.8%

8.5%11.4%

12.8%

18.2%

* This figure presents estimates for 18- 20-year-olds, including the high school dropout rate (11.4%). This rate differs from the 20-year-old dropout rate reported in Chapter 2 (12%). The latter is preferable as it accounts for the fact that some youth complete high school at a later age. Yet, for the purpose of presenting reliable estimates of education and labour market pathways, it is necessary to present 18-20-year-old results here.

% No Longer in School

10%

53.2%

36.7%

59.3%

22.5%

34.3%

51.1%

14.6%

91.5% 30%N/A

63.1%

22.2%

14.6%

58.2%

22.8%

19.0%

11.4%

34.8%

34.8%

100% 100% N/A

6.9% 9.2% 83.9%

Research on learning in HRSD

Start of the flow of research based on new data sources

Community colleges play a major role in post-secondary education

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

All PSE participants

PSE leavers

PSE continuers

PSE graduates

University University college Community college/CEGEP

Trade or vocational Private business or training Another above high school

Research on learning in HRSD

Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey (18-20 years old cohort)

Changing context for community colleges

•Changes in labour market demands

•Skills Evaluated based on outcomes of learners

•Expansion of enrolments

•Diversity of learners

•Taking learning to the learner

•Use of technology – Clicks and mortar institutions

About 45% of new jobs created in this decade will require 16 years of education

Number of Occupations: by Sector and Educational Attainment

Source: Job Futures 2000, HRDC

Changes in labour market demand

Sector UniversityCollege/

Technical

High school/ less than high

school

Environment 9 10 3

Biotechnology 13 6 1

Multimedia 17 13 2

Aerospace 9 5 3

Starting and lifetime employment earnings by skill level

Requiring less than High

School diploma

Requiring a College diploma

Requiring a High School

diploma

1,994,100

1,439,2001,220,500

1,099,800

Level A Level B Level C Level D

34,800

24,100

18,500 15,200

Requiring a University

degree

Lifetime earnings

Starting earnings

Source: Job Futures 2000, Applied Research Branch, HRDC

Changes in labour market demand

College education affects both average and lifetime income

Literacy scores appear to fall with age, and can be potentially upgraded through lifelong learning

Relationship between prose literacy scores of Canadians and age, 1994-1995

Source:International Adult Literacy Survey, 1994-1995.

Sta

nd

ard

ized

pro

se s

core

sSkills evaluated based on outcomes of learners

-1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.8

20 30 50 604010 70AGE

Generally, potential students for community colleges are well prepared by international

standards

• Canadian students (15 years old) outranked those of most other industrialized countries in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). Of all 32 countries that participated, Canada ranked:– Second in reading;– Fifth in science; and– Six in mathematics.

Scores from PISA tests, for G-7 countries

450 475 500 525 550

Germany

Italy

U.S.

France

Japan

U.K.

Canada

Reading Math Science

Source: Programme for International Student Assessment 2000.

Skills evaluated based on outcomes of learners

College enrolments over time FT College Enrollment as Pecentage of Formal PSE (without Quebec)*

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Years

Per

cen

tag

e

CDA

Nfld

PEI

NS

NB

Ont

Man

Sask

Alta

BC

Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 81-229-XIB

Expansion of enrolments

*Due to high penetration of CEGEP institutions

Growing College EnrolmentsBritish Columbia

37,127 FT college enrollment41% of public PS enrollments

Alberta31,999 FT college enrollment37% of public PS enrollments

Saskatchewan2,740 FT college enrollment10% of public PS enrollments

Manitoba4,181 FT college enrollment17% of public PS enrollments

Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 81-229-XIB

Ontario142,321 FT college enrollment38% of public PS enrollment

Quebec164,469 FT college enrollment55% of public PS enrollment

New Brunswick5,221 FT college enrollment22% of public PS enrollments

Newfoundland and Labrador5,973 FT college enrollment31% of public PS enrollments

Nova Scotia7,039 FT college enrollment19% of public PS enrollments

Prince Edward Island1,899 FT college enrollment43% of public PS enrollment

Expansion of enrolments

Emerging trends in college student market

Adults

The proportion of college graduates over age 25 has been steadily increasing over time.

The proportion of college graduates 25 years of age over

time

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1986 1990 1995

Diversity of learners

Source: National Graduate Survey – Follow up 1995

A substantial percentage of university graduates choose colleges as sources of further education

Did pursue further

education

59%

Did not pursue further

education

41%

Master’s, Doctorate

23%

College, trade/voc.

22%

Bachelor’s

14%

Source: Butlin (2000) based on National Graduates Survey

Distribution of 1990 Bachelor’s graduates who pursued further education and training in 1995

Diversity of learners

19901995

Educational attainment expectations of immigrants and Canadian-born respondents

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

So

me h

igh

scho

ol

Hig

h sch

oo

l

So

me P

SE

Private

bu

siness sch

oo

l

Co

llege

Belo

wB

achelo

r's

Bach

elor's

Pro

fession

al

Master's

Ph

.D.

Oth

er

Canadian-born Immigrants

Source: 2000 Youth in Transition Survey 18-20-year old cohort

Diversity of Learners

College participation rates (18-21 year-olds, by income quartile

29% 29% 28% 28%29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Lowest quartile Lower middle Higher middle Highest quartile Average

Per

cen

tColleges are accessible to all

income groups

Source: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics

Diversity of learners

Taking learning to the learnersThere are twice as many Community Colleges (150) as universities (75)

Full-time college enrolment, by rural and urban populations

33

28

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Rural Urban%

Enrolment in community colleges varies by distance between home and the institution

Source: 1995 School Leavers Follow-up Survey

Taking learning to the learners

Percentage of students reporting having a computer at home and percentage reporting having a link to the internet at home.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

OECD

NFLD.

P.E.I.

N.S.

N.B.

QUE.

ONT.

MAN.

SASK.

ALTA.

B.C.

CANADA

Computer Internet

Per

cent

age

A vast majority of 15-year-old Canadian students in 2000 had a computer and a link to

the Internet at home. In 2003, they are potential PSE students

Source: Programme for International Student Assessment 2000

Use of technology – clicks and mortar institutions

SHIFT FROM DIPLOMA PROVISION TO LIFE LONG LEARNING…

Diploma provision Lifelong learning

•2-3 year diploma 40 year relationship

•Just in case learning Just in time learning

•Education for first job Learning for competitive advantage

•Traditional disciplines Labour market and economy oriented

Opportunities for Community Colleges

Lifelong learning increases the number of potential community college students

Canadian Population Levels: by Age

15-24 years

Total Population

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

Source: Cansim, Statistics Canada

Opportunities for Community Colleges

IF A MAN EMPTIES HIS PURSE INTO HIS HEAD, NO MAN CAN TAKE IT AWAY FROM HIM. AN INVESTMENT IN KNOWLEDGE ALWAYS PAYS THE BEST INTEREST.

Benjamin Franklin