SADRÆAJ CONTENTSJurković, J. Klimatologija događaja magle na zračnoj luci Zagreb 13 Izvorni znanstveni rad Original scientific paper Ančić, B., Vidimo li klimatske promjene u

ISSN 1849-0700ISSN 1330-0083CODEN HMCAE7

Hrvatsko meteoroloπko druπtvoCroatian Meteorological Society

HRVATSKI METEOROLO©KI »ASOPISCROATIAN METEOROLOGICAL JOURNAL

51 Hrv. meteor. Ëasopis Vol. 51 p. 1-72 ZAGREB 2016

SADRÆAJCONTENTS

Izvorni znanstveni radOriginal scientific paper

Kuraži, D., Karakteristike zrna tuče u sjeverozapadnom dijelu HrvatskePočakal, D. Hail characteristics in the northwest part of Croatia 3

Prethodno priopćenjePreliminary contribution

Zoldoš, M., Fog event climatology for Zagreb AirportJurković, J. Klimatologija događaja magle na zračnoj luci Zagreb 13

Izvorni znanstveni radOriginal scientific paper

Ančić, B., Vidimo li klimatske promjene u Hrvatskoj? Istraživanje stavovaPuđak, J., o nekim od aspekata klimatskih promjena u hrvatskom društvuDomazet, M. Do we see climate change in Croatia? Research of attitudes

on some of the aspects of climate change in Croatian society 27

Prethodno priopćenjePreliminary contribution

Podraščanin, Z. Offline coupling and verification of the Unified EMEP model and WorkETA model"Offline" povezivanje unificiranog EMEP modela i WorkETA modela 47

Stručni radProfessional paper

Sokol Jurković, R. Water balance components during recent floods in CroatiaKomponente vodne ravnoteže tijekom recentnih poplava u Hrvatskoj 61

Hrv. meteor. Ëasopis Vol. 51 p. 1-72 ZAGREB 2016

HMC_51_Naslovnica.qxp_Naslovnica50 10/10/16 17:35 Page 1

1. INTRODUCTION

The catastrophic floods that have occurred inCroatia in the recent period have raised aneed for a wider overview of the cause-conse-quence relationship in flood developing. In achanging climate, when flooding becomesmore frequent and more intense, differentanalyses of past floods are useful for the de-velopment of mitigation and adaptation meas-ures. Flooding during the autumn of 2010, be-ginning of 2013, and spring and autumn of2014 has caused great economic damage toCroatia. Extremely rainy weather in 2010 (me-teo.hr) caused floods over the whole of Croat-ia, while in 2013 and 2014 mainly continental

parts were affected. In September of 2010heavy precipitation in Slovenia and Croatiaformed the highest Sava River water waveever. A large part of the Turopolje region(part of the Sava River basin near Zagreb)was flooded and natural disaster was pro-claimed. In the spring of 2013 snow meltingcoincided with large amounts of precipitation,and the Sava and Kupa River basins wereflooded. The largest flood occurred in May of2014 in Županjska Posavina (part of the lowerSava River basin), when the left river embank-ment broke and the Sava River flooded settle-ments.

Professional paperStručni rad

Hrvatski meteoroloπki Ëasopis � Croatian Meteorological Journal, 51, 2016., 61∑70

WATER BALANCE COMPONENTS DURING RECENT FLOODS IN CROATIA

Komponente vodne ravnoteže tijekom recentnih poplava u Hrvatskoj

RENATA SOKOL JURKOVIĆ

Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, [email protected]

Recieved 15 February 2016, in final form 3 June 2016Primljeno 15. veljače 2016., u konačnom obliku 3. lipnja 2016.

Abstract: Water balance components according to the Palmer model were analysed for floodsin Croatia in 2010, 2013 and 2014. A detailed analysis of water balance components (precipita-tion, loss, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and surface runoff) can reveal whetherthe flood originates from local precipitation or extreme precipitation, and/or snow meltingthat occurred elsewhere in the upper parts of the basin. According to the analysis described inthe paper, abundant water in 2010, besides high local precipitation, came mainly from the up-per parts of the basins, due to high precipitation in that area. A combination of large amountsof precipitation and rapid snow melting caused severe flooding in 2013, while favorable flood-ing conditions in 2014 are the result of long-lasting precipitation and soil saturation.

Key words: water balance components, floods, Palmer's water balance model

Sažetak: Analizirane su komponente vodne ravnoteže prema Palmerovom modelu tijekompoplava 2010., 2013. i 2014. godine. Detaljnom analizom komponenata (oborina, dovod iz du-bine tla, evapotranspiracija, procjeđivanje i površinsko otjecanje) može se razlučiti da li su po-plave nastale od lokalnih ekstremnih oborina ili oborine i/ili topljenja snijega na gornjim dije-lovima sliva. Prema analizi opisanoj u radu obilna voda 2010. godine, osim od obilne lokalneoborine, došla je većinom iz gornjih dijelova sliva zbog obilne oborine i na tom području.Kombinacija velikih količina oborine i brzog topljenja snijega uzrokovala je poplave 2013. go-dine dok su uvjeti za poplave 2014. godine bili rezultat dugotrajne oborine i zasićenosti tla.

Ključne riječi: komponente vodne ravnoteže, poplave, Palmerov model vodne ravnoteže

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Over the past few years floods have beenanalysed from different aspects and additionalmeteorological insights could help to betterunderstand the cause-consequence relation-ship during floods. Kuspilić et al (2014) pre-sented the most recent meteorological condi-tions during the floods in May of 2014. Bonac-ci and Oskoruš (2011) analysed hydrologicalsafety in the Sava River basin and whether thesafety of the city of Zagreb is in alignmentwith the new river conditions. Gajić-Čapka etal (2012) presented the damage caused byfloods, including those of 2010, but only forthe Croatian Adriatic coast. In this paper,Palmer's water balance model (Palmer, 1965)is used to give another perspective to recentfloods. Water balance uses the principles ofthe conservation of water in a river basin,whereby any water entering a basin must betransferred into either evaporation or surfacerunoff, or stored in the ground (Žugaj, 2000).A few papers with analyses of Palmer’s waterbalance components have been published, butnone of them covered separate flood episodes(e.g. Gajić-Čapka and Zaninović, 2004;Pandžić, 1985). Although Palmer’s water bal-ance model is quite simple, it gives importantinsight into the amount of water which comes

62 Hrvatski meteoroloπki Ëasopis � Croatian Meteorological Journal, 51, 2016

from precipitation and runs directly to riverflows. The main goal of this study is to deter-mine the meteorological factors that causedthe observed floods, as well as the place oftheir origin (e.g. snow melting, heavy or long-lasting rain, local or upper part of the basin).

Originally, Palmer’s method was developedfor agronomy purposes; however, some calcu-lated components are very useful for watermanagement and flood assessment as well.Firstly, potential evapotranspiration can beused to estimate evaporation from the watersurface, and secondly, surface runoff is basi-cally water surplus that fills river flows. Thus,after precipitation occurs, evapotranspirationis the first process that uses water, followed bygroundwater recharge, and finally water sur-plus runs off and fills watercourses. Surfacerunoff can be generated by infiltration excess.If it continues to rain and the soil is saturated(the maximum infiltration rate exceeded), sur-face runoff is instantly produced. The level ofantecedent soil moisture is one factor affect-ing the length of time until the soil becomessaturated (Han, 2011). Flooding can occur ifthe amount of precipitation over an area ex-ceeds the evaporation rate and infiltration ca-

Figure 1. Location of selected meteorological stations in the continental part of Croatia (white labels) and Fanalysed rivers (capital letters). (source: Google Earth)

Slika 1. Položaj odabranih meteoroloških postaja u kontinentalnom dijelu Hrvatske (bijeli nazivi) te anal-iziranih rijeka (velika slova). (izvor: Google Earth)

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pacity of the soil (Lin, 2012). Considering soilmoisture is one of the most important condi-tions in the flood process, the analysis ofPalmer’s water balance components is a goodway to gain different insights into flood devel-opment.

The methods and data used to calculate waterbalance components will be presented in thesecond section of the paper, followed by theresults and the discussion. The main conclu-sions will be summarised at the end of the pa-per.

2. DATA AND METHODS

The data used in this study come from themeasurements taken at 5 meteorological sta-tions situated in the continental part of Croat-ia (Figure 1) over the period 2010-2014. Thestations were chosen as representative by theavailability of data in order to calculate waterbalance components for two larger basins, theSava River basin and the Drava River basin,which include smaller basins like the Kupaand Mura River basin.

Water balance components were calculatedusing Palmer’s water balance model:

(1)

where P is precipitation (mm), L is water lossfrom soil layers (mm), ET is evapotranspira-tion (mm), R is groundwater recharge (mm),and RO is surface runoff (mm) (Pandžić,1985).

Precipitation is the only component that canbe measured, while the other components canbe calculated using meteorological parameters(mean monthly temperature, monthly precipi-tation sum, mean monthly relative humidity,and mean monthly wind strength). Pandžićand Vuković (1999) modified Eagleman’s for-mula (Eagleman, 1967) for calculating poten-tial evapotranspiration PET, i.e.:

(2)

where Ct is the thermal constant, Cs is the so-lar constant, emax is mean maximum watervapour pressure (hPa), U is mean monthly rel-ative humidity (%), and Cv is the wind con-stant that can be determined from mean wind

velocity or wind strength. Thus, the constantCv can be calculated from:

(3)

(4)

As in previous studies, Cs (the solar constant)was set to 1.0 and Ct is calculated as describedin Pandžić (1985). This calculus was used innumerous later studies (e.g. Gajić-Čapka andZaninović, 2004, Zaninović and Gajić-Čapka,2005, Zaninović and Gajić-Čapka, 2000).Groundwater recharge (R) and surface runoff(RO) are calculated from the sequence of con-ditions in the relations between the precipita-tion amount, potential evapotranspiration andthe amount of water in the soil. A detailedprocedure for calculating water balance com-ponents is described in Pandžić (1985).The calculation of water balance componentsfor the purpose of this paper starts in January2010. According to Palmer’s assumption thatsoil consists of two layers (20 cm and 1 m) andpedological data that 1 m of soil has the capac-ity of 400 mm of water in the continental partof Croatia (Pedološki institut, 1984), it couldbe assumed that in January soil saturation is atits maximum, and amounts to 80 mm of waterin the first 20 cm of soil and 320 mm in thelower 1 meter of soil. Notwithstanding that thewhole of Croatia was flooded in some years,the analysis of water balance components ispresented only for two major river basins, withan emphasis on the years 2010, 2013 and 2014,when heavy flooding occurred.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

3.1. Floods in 2010

High precipitation that occurred in Sloveniaas well in central Croatia in 2010 (Kratofil etal, 2011) caused severe flooding in both coun-tries. During 2010 flooding appeared in au-tumn, mainly September, in all consideredbasins.

The Sava River basin in Croatia is presentedwith water balance components estimated fortwo representative locations: the Zagreb-Maksimir meteorological station (Figure 2a)

63R. Sokol Jurković: Water balance components during recent floods in Croatia

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and the Slavonski Brod one (Figure 2b). Highwater levels are not characteristic for Septem-ber, but in September of 2010 severe floodingoccurred in the Zagreb area. After June andJuly, when precipitation water was primarilyused for evapotranspiration (PET>P),recharge occurred in August as identified bythe calculation of water balance componentsat the Zagreb-Maksimir gauging station. Sep-tember, when this flooding occurred, wascharacterised by a high precipitation amountand low potential evapotranspiration. A sur-face runoff of 29% of the monthly precipita-tion amount (194.7 mm), combined with waterinflow from Slovenia, was sufficient to causeflooding in the Zagreb area. The water level inZagreb reached 464 cm, which is, following1964 (514 cm) and 1966 (486 cm), the highestwater level in the history of measurements atthis location. It should be noted that in those

earlier years no relief channel was available;thus the water level in September of 2010 isconsidered the absolute maximum in the Za-greb area (Kratofil et al, 2011). The lower partof the Sava River basin is presented by theSlavonski Brod meteorological station, whereno water surplus or high water level was deter-mined in the autumn of 2010, due to low pre-cipitation amounts in the right tributary basinsof the Sava River (Kratofil et al, 2011).

The Kupa River is the largest Sava River trib-utary in Croatia. A precipitation deficit in theKupa River basin occurred only in July of2010 (as estimated at the Karlovac meteoro-logical station, Figure 2c), while in othermonths high amounts of precipitation wererecorded. During the summer month (Au-gust), precipitation water was used for evapo-transpiration, and recharge occurred only in


Figure 2. Water balance components in 2010 at 5 observed meteorological stations. P is precipitation, PET ispotential evapotranspiration, R is groundwater recharge and RO is surface runoff.

Slika 2. Komponente vodne ravnoteže tijekom 2010. godine na 5 promatranih meteoroloških postaja. P jeoborina, PET je potencijalna evapotranspiracija, R je procjeđivanje i RO je površinsko otjecanje.

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flooding in the autumn of 2010 mainly oc-curred due to high local precipitation andlarge amounts of water that came from the up-per parts of the basins.

3.2. Floods in 2013

At the beginning of 2013 floods occurred onlyin the Sava River (Zagreb area) and KupaRiver basins.

At the Zagreb-Maksimir meteorological sta-tion (Figure 3a), the average PET value is lowin winter months (Gajić-Čapka and Zani-nović, 2004). At the beginning of 2013 precipi-tation amounts were relatively high (85.4 mmin February and 121.7 mm in March); thus,with low PET and high P the soil became satu-rated in February, which resulted in a highsurface runoff rate in March (80% of themonthly precipitation amount). In the lowerSava River basin, in the region of Slavonijarepresented by the Slavonski Brod meteoro-logical station, only recharge occurred duringthe winter months and no surface runoff wasevident during the whole year (Figure 3b).

At the beginning of 2013, at the Karlovac me-teorological station, high amounts of precipi-tation (between 159.5 mm and 230.6 mm) andlow PET resulted in an extremely high watersurplus in the Kupa River basin. During Janu-ary, February and March, surface runoff wasbetween 88% and 96% of monthly precipita-tion. Precipitation in the Kupa River basinwas long-lasting and the soil was saturated.The high saturation of the soil could be notedfrom a high and continuous surface runoff inthe beginning of 2013 (Figure 3c), which creat-ed conditions for the flooding of a large num-ber of rivers and brooks. The Kupa Riverbasin is also under the direct influence of snowmelting in the upper part of the basin, i.e. inthe region of Gorski kotar, which additionallycreated more prominent floods in March of2013 (DHMZ, 2013). The flooding was proba-bly caused by a combination of long-lastingprecipitation in the previous months and therapid snow melting and high precipitation inthe region of Gorski kotar. In February thewater level of the Kupa River in Karlovacreached 827 cm (www.voda.hr). Following thesummer months (June, July and August) witha precipitation deficit, recharge was detectedin September, and again in November when a


September when the highest amount of pre-cipitation at the Karlovac meteorological sta-tions was recorded (187.2 mm). Thus, surfacerunoff was high during the whole year: be-tween 21% in June and extremely high in Jan-uary (93%). During the floods in the KupaRiver basin in the autumn of 2010, surfacerunoff exceeded 62% of the correspondingmonthly precipitation. The highest water levelof the Kupa River (809 cm) occurred in De-cember, which can, considering normal pre-cipitation conditions at the Karlovac station(DHMZ, 2010), imply large amounts of pre-cipitation and rapid snow melting during De-cember in the higher parts of the Kupa Riverbasin, in the region of Gorski kotar (Kratofilet al, 2011).

The Mura River is a large Drava River tributary and its basin is presented by Čakovec-Nedelišće meteorological station(Figure 2d). As is shown in the chart, a precip-itation deficit in very rainy 2010 (meteo.hr)was detected only in March and July. In veryrainy August (meteo.hr), when the precipita-tion amount reached 192.0 mm, the water wasused for evapotranspiration and groundwaterrecharge, but a small amount of surface runoffalso occurred. The largest surface runoff wasdetected in September (109.1 mm, i.e. 70% ofthe monthly precipitation amount), when thewater level of the Mura River in MurskoSredišće (a hydrological station at the Croatia-Slovenia border) reached 373 cm, but the Dra-va River and the Mura River did not endangersettlements (www.duzs.hr).

In the lower Drava River basin, presented bythe Donji Miholjac (Figure 2e) meteorologicalstation, the year 2010 was extremely rainy(meteo.hr). A precipitation deficit was evidentonly in two summer months (July and Au-gust). Although this year was extremely rainy,PET was not low implying high-intensity rainevents; thus, on a monthly basis there was notenough water to saturate the soil and to pro-duce a surface runoff. Only in May, June andDecember did some surface runoff occur, butwith a low rate (22%, 26% and 45% of month-ly precipitation respectively).

Considering water balance components, de-pending on meteorological parameters andsoil characteristics, it can be concluded that

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high precipitation amount (209.3 mm) and lowpotential evapotranspiration enabled arecharge and surface runoff amounting to58% of monthly precipitation.

In January and February of 2013, in the MuraRiver basin, precipitation was mainly used forgroundwater recharge (Figure 3d) and noflooding occurred. A notable surface runoffwas detected in March and it amounted to78% of monthly precipitation, i.e. 77.9 mm. InApril, in the summer months and in October aprecipitation deficit was detected. The highestmonthly precipitation amount, recorded inNovember (202.1 mm), was mainly used tocompensate for the water deficit in the soil.

In 2013 surface runoff did not occur in the low-er Drava River basin (Figure 3e). Althoughprecipitation was higher than PET in the firstthree months of the year, and again in May,

September and November, which followed itsaverage annual course (Zaninović and Gajić-Čapka, 2000), only soil moisture recharge oc-curred and there was no surface runoff.

From a meteorological point of view, floodingin central Croatia in the early spring of 2013was caused by a superposition of high precipi-tation, and thus soil saturation, and rapidsnow melting in the region of Gorski kotarand the upper parts of the Sava and Kupa Riv-er basins in Slovenia.

3.3. Floods in 2014

In 2014 high water levels were recorded in allconsidered basins, except the lower DravaRiver basin. However, a catastrophic flood oc-curred in the lower Sava River basin in May,while in the Kupa and Mura River basinsrivers endangered settlements in September.




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Precipitation amounts higher than potentialevapotranspiration were determined for al-most every month of 2014 at the Zagreb-Mak-simir meteorological station, except for March(Figure 4a). Recharge occurred in smallamounts in January and from April to July,while surface runoff occurred every month ex-cept for March and April. Surface runoff wasbetween 8% (August) and 85% (February) ofthe corresponding monthly precipitationamounts. It is important to emphasise that be-sides in February, runoff was over 60% ofmonthly precipitation from September to De-cember. In the lower parts of the Sava Riverbasin (the Slavonski Brod meteorological sta-tion, Figure 4b) high amounts of precipitationwere recorded in April (119.0 mm) and May(133.8 mm). PET exceeded the rainfall rateonly in June, July and November. A water sur-plus was detected in May (12% of the monthly

precipitation amount), when great floodingoccurred due to a river embankment break.The water wave was characterised as one witha 1000-year return period with an absolute wa-ter level maximum (Kratofil, 2014). Althoughthere was no significant surface runoff in thelower Sava River basin, high precipitationamounts were detected in the middle part ofthe Sava River basin and a large amount ofwater continuously saturated the riverbanksdownstream. Additionally, rivers from Bosniaand Herzegovina (the right Sava River tribu-taries, i.e. the Bosna, Una and Vrbas River)notably contributed to creating flood condi-tions (Kuspilić et al, 2014). Floods in the SavaRiver basin also occurred in September 2014.High surface runoff in the lower part of theSava River basin (over 50% of the correspon-ding precipitation amount) occurred in Octo-ber and again in December.




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Considering all three analysed years at theKarlovac gauging station, the largest monthlyprecipitation amounts were recorded in 2014(Figure 4c). Precipitation in September was311.2 mm, which is the largest amount record-ed at all the observed meteorological stationsin all the analysed years. PET exceeded pre-cipitation amounts only in March and June,which resulted in the need for a small rechargein April and July. High precipitation amountsand low potential evapotranspiration duringthe winter led to high surface runoff, which inFebruary reached 92% of monthly precipita-tion (225.1 mm) but with no high surfacerunoff in the previous months. Due to a highamount of precipitation in September, surfacerunoff was the highest in absolute values andit amounted to 259.4 mm, i.e. 83% of monthlyprecipitation. The highest Kupa River waterlevel of 845 cm in Karlovac occurred on Sep-tember 14, and the Korana River water levelof 844 cm was measured the day before (Žel-jeznjak, 2014). This implies soil saturation anda large amount of precipitation in that part ofthe basin, but not extreme precipitation in theupper parts of the basin (Renko, 2014).

Low PET and extremely high precipitationamounts (DHMZ, 2014) are the main charac-teristics of 2014 in the Mura River basin, im-plying low-intensity but long-lasting rainevents (Figure 4d). The highest monthly pre-cipitation amount was recorded in September(300.6 mm). A precipitation deficit was evi-dent only in March and recharge was detectedonly in January and April; thus, the soil wassaturated during the whole year. From Aprilto December notable surface runoff occurredand the highest absolute values were detectedin August (140.1 mm, i.e. 82%) and Septem-ber (286.5 mm, i.e. 95%). In 2014, in the wholeof the Drava River basin, especially in the Mu-ra River catchment, the highest value of sur-face runoff coincides with September 15, whenthe highest water level of the Mura River inMursko Središće amounted to 536 cm (Seko-vanić, 2014).

After compensating for the water deficit in thesoil in the first half of 2014 in the lower DravaRiver basin, a water surplus occurred in Julydue to P>PET, which persisted throughout thewhole year (Figure 4e). High rates of surfacerunoff were detected from August to October

(over 80% of the monthly precipitationamount) with the highest absolute valuerecorded in October - 126.6 mm - but therewas no significant river response.

The main cause of flooding in 2014, accordingto the analysis of water balance components,was the water surplus that occurred as a con-sequence of low evapotranspiration and highamounts of precipitation in the lower parts ofthe basins, combined with water inflow fromupstream tributaries.

4. CONCLUSION

This paper deals with the analysis of waterbalance components for floods in 2010, 2013and 2014 in Croatia. The results enable us todistinguish whether flooding originates fromlocal precipitation or extreme precipitation,and/or snow melting elsewhere in the upperparts of the basin.

Water balance components in the autumn of2010 indicated high local precipitation togeth-er with high potential evapotranspiration;thus, it can be concluded that precipitationwas of high intensity. In the upper parts of theconsidered basins (the region of Gorski kotarin Croatia and Slovenia) high-intensity precip-itation also occurred. The water wave thatcame from the upper parts of the basin, to-gether with the smaller contribution of localsurface runoff, caused flooding.

In 2013 high precipitation and soil saturation infirst three months resulted in high amounts ofsurface runoff. Moreover, in March there wasrapid snow melting in the region of Gorski ko-tar and in the upper parts of the basins in Slove-nia. Thus, a superposition of these two effectsresulted in heavy flooding in central Croatia.

In 2014 the main characteristic of water balancecomponents by month was water surplus as aconsequence of low evapotranspiration andhigh amounts of precipitation. This was espe-cially notable in the eastern parts of the Dravaand Sava River basins. Low PET and high pre-cipitation amounts indicated long-lasting rainevents and maximum soil saturation, which,combined with abundant water inflow from theright Sava River tributaries, resulted in a cata-strophic flood in the Županjska Posavina region(the easternmost part of the Sava River basin in


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Croatia) in May. In autumn large amounts ofprecipitation fell on the soil that was alreadysaturated; thus a high amount of surface runoffwas produced, contributing to flooding.

Recent floods, although quite different in ori-gin, were severe; thus they initiated investiga-tion into and improvement of the existing floodprotection system, taking into consideration allthe influential factors, including the possibleconsequences of climate change. Consideringclimate change projections, an effort must bemade to better understand, mitigate and adaptto new conditions; thus, by analysing water bal-ance components, additional information is re-trieved in order to accomplish these goals andassess the causes of recent floods.

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank dr. sc. KsenijaZaninović for her constructive feedback andguidance through this research. The authorwould also like to thank dr. sc. Tatjana Vu-jnović for her advice and the two anonymousreviewers for their constructive comments.This paper is supported in part by the Croat-ian Science Foundation, under the project2831 (CARE).

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SADRÆAJ CONTENTSJurković, J. Klimatologija događaja magle na zračnoj luci Zagreb 13 Izvorni znanstveni rad Original scientific paper Ančić, B., Vidimo li klimatske promjene u