The Risen Star was so popular this year they had to break it into two separate races. We will review both divisions. Race 12 looks like the stronger version. There are seven runners coming out of the strong G3 Lecomte on Jan. 18. The PLOT is a little hazy with a RED plot fit, but we will still be able to use it with OptixNOTES to upgrade and downgrade runners.

1- DIGITAL – A solid effort in a fast time in a common race with BLACKBERRY WINE. The raw time of the race was nearly 3/5 of a second faster than the Lecomte on the same day. However OptixNOTES extended comments suggests 8.5f might be a ceiling distance-wise. He gets his toughest class test to date and must try 9f for the first time. He has more of an underneath feel to him.

2 – SILVER STATE – Good race in the G3 Lecomte over this track and must be considered a contender. The added distance should not be a problem. Like the favorite he is a deep closer with gate issues in a race with only average Contention and a low SpeedRate.

3 – READY TO ROLL - Off a strong B+ maiden breaker last time, but the downside is he looks too slow and gets a major class hike. He has never been on a fast track so not sure what to expect.

4 – PERFECT REVENGE - He has made gradual progression, however his best OptixFIGs are below today’s OptixFig range (99-93) and nothing in his recent form projects major upside.

5 – MOON OVER MIAMI – A PERFECT trip in his maiden breaker, but regressed with a WIDE trip in his first race versus winners. Lightly raced colt might have more upside but will need it to compete here.

6 – SHASHASHAKEMEUP – Part of the early pace from outside post in the Lecomte before fading in the stretch. He gets a better post today, but faces several other Lecomte horses who ran better. Based on the PLOT it looks like he will get pressure from 3 - READY TO ROLL among others. Hanging on for minor piece seems like a ceiling.

7 – BLACKBERRY WINE – He looks like the best of the non-Lecomte runners. A strong effort last time in his first race on a fast dirt track earning the best last out OptixFIG in the field (99) while showing GRIT and a strong GALLOP+ out. The raw time of the race was nearly 3/5 of a second faster than the Lecomte on the same day. He PLOTs as Q1 square in a race with average Contention and low SpeedRate. He has a progressive OptixFIG line and if he didn’t peek last out he rates as a very strong win contender.

8 – ENFORCEABLE – The Lecomte winner was impressive earning OptixFIG of 98 and a B+ OptixNOTES grade. He looks like the horse to beat going the added distance, however the race contention is Average and SpeedRate is low which is always a concern for deep closers. He was nearly 7/1 in the Lecomte and today he will be much lower against many of the same runners.

9 – MR MONOMY – There are no real knocks here, but he might be an underlay. His two most recent trips were favorable. He had good POCKET trip in the Lecomte. OptixNOTES extended notes suggested he had some minor traffic, but still had a seam to run through late. In his previous effort NOTES suggested the track profile favored his running style. He moves to an outside post which could compromise his chance of saving ground.

10 – FRAMINGTON ROAD – Pletcher trainee ran big B+ in his maiden breaker at Tampa Bay. However that seemed like a soft bunch. Four of the six entrants were really turf horses. He PLOTs as Q4 circle on Surface/Distance.

11 - SCABBARD - I picked him in the Lecomte and according to NOTES the the riding TACTICs used were subpar. The bad news is he gets the widest post. The good news he picks up Joel Rosario. I am expecting an improved performance, but will it be enough to overcome some of the other Lecomte runners who finished ahead of him? If the 12/1 morning line is any indication of his actual odds 12/1 I will be using as an Exotics Key.

WIN: 11

TRI: 2,7,8 / 11 / 1,2,7,8,9

TRI: 2,7,8 / 1,2,7,8,9 / 11

TRI: 7,11 / 7,8,11 / 1,2,7,8,9,11

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ANALYSIS by John Doyle

RISEN STAR Race 12

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Standard OptixPLOT Quad Position; Shape & Size

OptixFIG Range

OptixNOTES Keywords

OptixNOTES Grade

& OptixFIGS

Previous 3 Race Dates and Class

Program #, Horse Name, Morning Line, Days Since Last Race, RunStyle

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