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Retail Equity Research
BAJAJ AUTO AUTO Manufactures
BSE CODE: 532977
Bloomberg CODE: Bajaj :IN
NSE CODE: TVSMOTOR
SENSEX: 38140.47
07th
July, 2020 FY20
RESULT UPDATE
BUY Target Price: Rs.20949
KEY CHANGES: TARGET RATING EARNINGS
Company Profile
Bajaj Auto Limited is an Indian global two-wheeler company and
three-wheeler manufacturing company based in Pune, Maharashtra. It
manufactures motorcycles, scooters and auto rickshaws. Bajaj Auto is a part
of the Bajaj Group. It was founded by Jamnalal Bajaj in Rajasthan in the
1940s. It is based in Pune, Maharashtra, with plants in Chakan (Pune),
Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar in Uttarakhand Bajaj Auto is the
world's third-largest manufacturer of motorcycles and the second-largest
in India. It is the world's largest three-wheeler manufacturer
Bajaj Auto was established on 29 November 1945 as M/s Bachraj Trading
Corporation Private Limited.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Company Data
Market Cap (Cr)
Outstanding Shares (Mn)
₹ 823.7(B)
547
Free Float 118.57M
Dividend Yield 4.14%
52-week high ₹ 3315.15
52-week low ₹ 1788.65
6m Average Trading volume (Mn) 0.9
Beta 1.00
Face value ₹ 10
Promoters 49.30 51.18 53.66
Sale of
I
ndi
Oct-1 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
. Research Analyst Miss. Pushpanjali Sonavane Internship under
[email protected] Factsheet INC
Shareholding% Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20
Q4FY20
CMP* (Rs) 547
Upside/ (Downside) (%) 17
Bloomberg Ticker Bajaj: IN
Market Cap. (Cr.) ₹ 823.7(B)
Shares O/S (mn) 5.47
Fll’s 17.20 15.64 13.94
MF/Inst. 16.06 17.1 21.3
DII 22.59 23.53 24.19
Others 7.3 7.0 3.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
Price Performance 3Months 6Month 1Year
Absolute Return 9.9% 11.5% 26.1%
Absolute Sensex 2.8% 1.3% 15.4%
Relative Return* 7.1% 10.2% 10.7%
Scrap
sales, 3%, …
Export Incenti
ves, …
Royalty, 19%, 19%
Financial
Servi…
Domestic , 59.94
%, …
Export
, 40%, 40%
3%
67%
19%11%
59.94%
40%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Scrapsales
ExportIncentives
Royalty FinancialServices
Domestic Export
Sensex Rebased
02
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Profit After Tax
EPS
₹ in Crs. Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 (E)
Revenue 23448 22694 25098 29567 31045
Revenue growth -3% -3% 11% 18% 5.00%
Operating profit 434 393 518 682 716
Net Profit 24867 24310 26775 31804 33395
EPS (₹) 140.3 141 145 145.8 170.3
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
3454.693045.43132.69
3380.283025.63
4061.244079.494218.95
4927.61
2855.717
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
02
KeyHighlights/Comments
1. Revenue was impacted for
Q4FY20 due to Covid-19 and
overall growth is estimated to be
5% and de growth for coming
terms.
2. Management continues to focus
on improving profitability and
would be very selective in
picking orders.
3. Company has maintained an
average EPS of approximately ₹
185
4. BAJAJ shows positive sign even in
this scenario by implementing
Digitization, Smart infrastructure
through innovative financing
and strong Balance Sheet.
5. Investment in Capex is reduced
in Q2FY20 due to lockdown.
6. Industry is being impacted due
to lockdown and domestic
demand will take time to revive.
7. Management believes their O I
from wide product portfolio will
help them to survive and
increment in near future.
,
1.44
2.72
2.07
1.25 1.31
0
1
2
3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ouick Ratio
1.7
2.95 2.2
5 1.45
1.56
0
1
2
3
4
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Current Ratio
55.2
119.4105.2108.3116.6
104.6
140.3141145.8
170.3185
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY
in (₹ Mns.) 2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
Operating Profit
434 393 518 682 716
CAPEX 13717 13285 15999 20301 21316
ROE (%) 28.96 22.84 20.65 21.12 24.06
ROCE (%) 28.08 28.95 27 26.16 28.63
ROA (%) 19.66 17.08 16.78 18.85 23.55
P/E Ratio 1.38 2.08 1.71 1.88 1.09
P/BV Ratio 4.97 4.55 3.89 3.63 2.7
EV/ EBITDA 11.93 14.35 13.14 12.77 8.8
Current Ratio 1.70 2.95 2.25 1.45 1.56
Source: Company, FACTSHEET INC Research
INDUSTRY OVERIVEW
India became the fourth largest auto market in 2018 with sales increasing 8.3 per cent year-on-year
to 3.99 million units
. It was the seventh largest manufacturer of commercial vehicles in 2018.
The Two Wheelers segment dominates the market in terms of volume owing to a growing middle
class and a young population.
Moreover, the growing interest of the companies in exploring the rural markets further aided the
growth of the sector.
India is also a prominent auto exporter and has strong export growth expectations for the near future.
Automobile exports grew 14.50 per cent during FY19. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.05
per cent during 2016-2026.
. In addition, several initiatives by the Government of India and the major automobile players in
the Indian market are expected to make India a leader in the two-wheeler and four-wheeler
market in the world by 2020.
Automobile exports grew 14.50 per cent year-on-year during FY19, while during April-December 2019,
overall export increased by 3.9 per cent.
SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGTHS
1 Promoters increasing shareholder.
2 MACD Crossover above single line.
3 Growth in Quarterly Net Profit with increasing profit
Margin (YOY) Company with No Debt.
4 Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years
5 Book value per share improving for last 2 years
6 Company with Zero Promoter Pledge.
7 FII/ FPI or institutions increasing their shareholding.
WEAKNESSES
1 Decline in Net Profit (QOQ).
2 Decline in Quarterly Net Profit (YOY)
3 Degrowth in Quarterly Revenue and Profit in news.
4 Declining Revenue every quarter for the past 3 quarters.
5 Declining Profits every quarter for the past quarters.
6 Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to
generate net cash.
7 Major fall in TTM Net Profit
OPPORTUNITIES
1 Brokers upgraded recommendation or target price in the past
three months.
2 Results Screener stocks with upcoming results which are
seeing positive shifts in share price.
3 RSI indicating price strength.
4 Insiders bought stocks
THREATS
1 Recent broker downgrades in recto and target price.
2 Increasing Trend in Non – core Income.
.
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
STORIES IN CHARTS
EBIDTA CAGR at 5 % over FY10-FY20E
EBIDTA (in ₹ Mns.) YoY Growth (%)
Source: Company, Annual Report
Increase in CAGR of 23% in Other Income
Source: Company, Annual Report
PAT Growth over 10 years
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
- 60
.99%
9531.1
13393.916054.216562.5116185.23
17774.9819410.3318977.33
21097.73
25541.1426818.2
41% 20% 3%
-2%
10% 9%
-2%
11% 21% 5%
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
583.95
984.581222.23 1158.26
1555.01 1632.761
69% 24%
-5%
34% 5%
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
other Income Growth Rate 2 per. Mov. Avg. (other Income)
1700.6
3431.682993.43059.453264.77
2811.9
4061.244079.484218.94
4927.6
2855.717
102%
-13%
2% 7%
-14%
44% 0% 3% 17%
-42%-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PAT Series2 2 per. Mov. Avg. (PAT)
PEER COMPARISON
Market Cap. Price Net Sales Net Profit Total Sales Price Performance
Company Name Last Price % Change 52 Wk
High 52 Wk
Low Market Cap Sales
Qtr
Net Profit Qtr
BAJAJ AUTO 2847.25 -1.7 3315 1793.1 87236.92 29,918.65 5,099.98
HERO MOTO CORP 2749 -0.8 3021.15 1475 54908.81 28,836.09 3,633.26
TVS MOTOR 399.9 -2.06 503 240.1 18998.73 16,423.34 592.25
ATUL AUTO 165.5 -0.63 335 117 363.16 625.34 52.39
SCOOTERS INDIA 28.5 4.97 50.55 14.25 248.73 72.01 -15.73
INVESTMENT THESIS
The Bajaj Group is amongst the top 10 business houses in India. Its footprint stretches over a wide range of industries, spanning
automobiles (two wheelers manufacturer and three wheelers manufacturer), home appliances, lighting, iron and steel, insurance, travel
and finance.
Bajaj Auto, is ranked as the world's fourth largest three and two wheeler manufacturer and the Bajaj brand is well-known across several
countries in Latin America, Africa, Middle East, South and South East Asia.
The present Chairman of the group, Rahul Bajaj, took charge of the business in 1965. Under his leadership, the turnover of the Bajaj
Auto the flagship company has gone up from INR.72 million to INR. 120 billion, its product portfolio has expanded and the brand has
found a global market.
Bajaj Auto today exclusively manufactures Duke range of KTM bikes and exports them worldwide. In FY2018, KTM was the fastest
growing motorcycle brand in the country
In a slow credit environment amidst Covid 19 disruption and on a high asset base, BAJAJ AUTO can continue to improve its credit
market share in a ‘flight to safety’ sentiment. BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED has continuously used digitization to reduce operating expenses
and increase cross-sell of fee products, helping improve operating leverage and ROAA/ROAE.
Continued digital initiatives are expected to drive further improvement in operating leverage and help improve profitability as the bank
focuses on protecting its balance sheet.
On 26 November 2019, Bajaj Auto invested $8 million (approx. ₹57 crore) in bicycle and electric scooter rental startup Yulu. In this
deal, Bajaj will also manufacture customized electric scooters for Yulu.
Future Outlook
BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED is best positioned to take advantage of opportunities that arise when the demand for Infrastructure
and energy improves. Management believes, Company’s strong portfolio of technology and digital solutions, project infrastructure, and
many other will still be growth drivers in new orders and revenue. Company continues to innovate to meet customer requirements with
products, Two Wheeler , Three Wheeler training analytics as well as application based on BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED . Solutions to improve
efficiency, productivity, process optimization, Company uses AI tools and Big Data analytics.
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
05
Income statement (₹ Mn)
Y/e September FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E
Total Revenue 24310.26 26775.53 31804.97 33395.22
Expenses:
Cost of materials consumed
13285.36 15999.16 20301.35 21316.42
Purchases of traded goods
1382..47 1401.25 1579.38 1658.349
Change in inventories
Project bought outs and other direct costs
-43.68 9.68 -56.42 -59.241
Excise duty on sale of
goods
1321.35 398.34 - -
Employee benefits
expense
997.39 1069.48 1256.89 1319.735
Finance costs 1.4 1.31 4.48 4.704
Depreciation and amortization expense
307.29 314.8 265.69 278.974
5
Other expenses 1748.02 1927.78 2219.87 2330.864
Total expenses 18977.33 21097.73 25541.14 26818.2
Profit before
exceptional items 5587.55 5965.41 6613.58 367.23
Profit before tax 5587.55 5965.41 6613.58 726.337
Total tax expense 1508.07 1714.47 2027.98 2129.37
Profit after tax 4079.48 4218.94 4927.6 2855.717
Balance Sheet (₹ Mn)
Cash Flow Statement (₹ Mn)
operating activities
Activities
Y/e September FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E Net Cash from -3683.16 -2053 -338.44 -70.79
Assets Investing Activities
Non-Current Assets
Property,plant & equipment 1898.61 8121.22 1688.69 1773.125 Financial Activities
Interest paid -28 -53 -111
Intangible Assets 44.65 - 19.75 20.73
Dividend paid -2572 -3000 -3005
Other Non-Current Assets
268.47 356.85 306.83 322.17 Repayment of short-
-252
term borrowings
Total Non-Current Assets
12169.09 15890.17
21761.25 22849.31 Net Cash from -190.00 -1885.25 -2074.05 Investing Activities
Current assets Net change in cash -533.88 464.49 157 132
Inventories 728.38 742.58 961.51 1009.586 and cash equivalents
Loans 75.76 6.26 6.34 6.657 Effect of exchange on
Trade receivables 953.29 1491.87 2559.69 2687.675 Cash and equivalents
Cash and cash
equivalents 287.5 775.6 915.64 961.422 Cash and cash
equivalents at the
Other bank balances 13.86 17.06 17.43 18.3015 beginning of the year 819.91 287.5 775.6 915.64
Other current assets 1096.36 372.69 923.13 969.2865 Cash and cash equivalents at the end 28377 8863 7125 20380
Total Current Assets 9468.53 9250.83 7073.16 7426.818 of the year 287.5 775.6 915.64 915.64
TOTAL ASSETS 21637.62 25141 28834.41 30276.13 Ratios
Equity & Liabilities Y/e September FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E
Equity Share Capital 289.37 289.37 289.37 289.37 ROE % 22.84 20.65 21.12 24.06
Other Equity 17567.2 20135.87 22944.44 29944.44 ROCE % 28.95 27 26.16 28.63
Total Equity 17856.57 20425.26
23233.82 23233.82 ROA % 17.08 16.78 18.85 23.55
Non-Current Liabilities
568.18 604.34 726.81 763.1505 P/ E Ratio 2.08 1.71 1.88 1.09 P/ BV Ratio 4.55 3.89 3.63 2.7
Current Liabilities EV/EBIDTA 14.35 13.14 12.77 8.8
Financial Liabilities Current Ratio 2.95 2.25 1.45 1.56
Trade payables 2235.98 3244.42 3786.83 3976.172 NP Margin (%) 9.97 7.04 7.98 7.99
Other Current
Liabilities 557.62 393.73 556.97 584.818
Total Current Liabilities 3212.84 4111.4 4873.78 5117.469
Total Equity & Liabilities
21637.62 25141 28834.41 30276.13
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
Y/e September FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E
Cash Generated from Operations
Profit before Tax
5587.55
5933.41
6955.58
2855.717
Total Adjustments
before W.C changes
Working Capital
changes
Trade receivables
4613.32
-240.98
4921.91
-539.11
5159.7
5
-
1070.47
36.48
Inventories -9.31 -14.2 -218.93 -560
Loans -135.6 677.8 -167.36
Provisions 570.05 989.35 754.05
Cash generated from 4769.94
6012.92
4451.2 2965.157
Operations
Tax paid
-1502.58
-1682.54
-1954.34
-60.711
Net cash from
Cash flows used in Investing activities
Purchase of PPE and
3267.36
-199.44
4327.84
-182.63
2486.86
-163.53
2904.446
-178.
investment property
Proceeds from sale of
-
-0.2
-
-
PPE
Interest received
2121
2690
3378
Other Investing 7756 -2645 -14570 -1376
ANALYST CONSENSUS
SN Company Name Rating TP (Rs) SharePrice(Rs)
1 2
Axis Bank Bandhan Bank
BUY Subscribe
609 -
419 -
3 Bank of Barodra BUY 83 50
4 Bank of India Reduce 58 70
5 Federal BUY 73 41
6 HDFC BUY 1406 1278
7 HDFC Bank BUY 1124 895
8 HDFC Life Insurance Company Hold 579 616
9 ICICI Bank BUY 509 331
10 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Accumulate 529 498
Investment Rating Criteria
LargeCapSt
ocks; Mid
Cap
and
Small
Cap
Buy
Hold
Reduce
Neutral
- Upside is above 10%
- Upside is between 0% - 10%
- Downside is more than 0%
- Not Applicable
Buy
Accumulate
Hold
Reduce/Sell
- Upside is above 15 %
- Upside is between 10% - 15%
- Upside is between 0% - 15%
- Downside is more than 0% Neutral - Not Applicable
To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute "Accumulate" as Buy and 'Reduce' as Sell.
The recommendations are based on 12-month horizon, unless otherwise specified. The investment ratings are on absolute
positive/negative return basis. It is possible that due to volatile price fluctuation in the near to medium term, there could be a
temporary mismatch to rating. For reasons of valuations/return/lack of clarity/event we may revisit rating at appropriate time. Please
note that the stock always carries the risk of being upgraded to BUY or downgraded to a HOLD, REDUCE or SELL. Neutral - The
analyst has no investment opinion on the stock under review.
General Disclosures and Disclaimers CERTIFICATION
I, Akhilesh Sharma, author of this Report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report reflect our personal
views about any or all of the subject issuer or securities. This report has been prepared by the Research Team of Factsheet
Financial Services Limited, herein after referred to Factsheet.
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Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
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08
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
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FACTSHEET INC
C7, Whispering Winds Society, Behind Varitas, Baner Pashan Link Road, Baner, Pune, Maharashtra-411045
Emial Id: [email protected], Phone: (+91) 916 858 2688
ANALYST
Mr. Akhilesh Sharma
Miss.Pushpanjali .
Sonavane
Factsheet Research
is available on
www.factsheetinc.com
Phone: +91-916 858 2688
www.factsheetinc.com
Result Update | BAJAJ AUTO FACTSHEET INC
09
