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Results of CAP Service Area ModelLower Santa Cruz River Basin Study
Stakeholder Advisors MeetingFebruary 26, 2018
Ken Seasholes [email protected]
1
• Tool for projecting supply and demand in CAP’s three county service area
• Accounts for complex legal and physical characteristics of users and supplies
• Can simulate a wide range variations of “driving forces”
• Designed to generate “what if” scenarios
CAP Service Area Model (CAP:SAM)
• 16 Supply Types• Includes Surface Water,
Effluent, CAP, Recharge Credits, Groundwater, Recovered Water, etc.
• Incorporates shortage scenarios from Colorado River Simulation mode
• 130+ Entities• 80 Municipal Providers• 23 Irrigation Districts• 12 Tribes and Districts• 20+ other user categories
CAP Service Area Model (CAP:SAM) Continued
Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
Colorado River Simulation System
(CRSS) CAP:SAM
Regional Downscaling (Statistical or Dynamical;
VIC; etc.)
Distribution of Pumping & Recharge
Arizona On-River Uses
Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW)
Distribution of Streambed & Mnt.
Recharge
Pumping & Rechargeby Entity
Land Use, Housing & Pop (COGs, Census, Applied Economics)
Supply & Demand by Entity
GW LevelsWater Supply
Portfolios, Use, etc.(ADWR, CAP)
Model Integration
“Driving Forces”
Some of the major factors that affect water supply, demand and reliability:
• Growth• Shortage • Climate • Socioeconomics • Sector Trends• Policy Changes• Behavioral Shifts• ….
Supply, Demand & Uncertainty
Growth RateAZ Department of Administration (Low, Med, High Series)
OutwardGrowth
Infill
Redevelopment
2040
Growth Location
“Dry Climate”“Historic Climate”
Colorado River Shortages
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Draft Results for Farmers Water Company (FICO)
LagoDelOro Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Draft Results for Lago Del Oro Water Company
Marana Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Marana Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
Draft Results for Marana Water
Sahuarita Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Comparison of FICO Low Risk Scenario and Sahuarita High Risk Scenario
Tucson Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
E. High Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
FarmersWC Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Tucson Central Arizona Project Service Area Model
B. Low Risk [LSCRBS]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
GP
HU
D
Gallons Per Housing Unit Per Day
Existing GPHUD New GPHUD
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Hou
sing
Uni
ts
Housing Unit Projection
Total Housing Units SRP Housing Units
Projection
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
Acr
e-Fe
et
Water Supply Projections
Effluent Surface Water Central Arizona Project CAP LTSCs Groundwater Replenished Groundwater
Draft Results for Tucson Water
• Refinement of housing unit assumptions
• Updating historic data• Hand-off to pumping
distribution file
Next Steps
