SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Restructuring the Lebanese Power System: Can India's Wind Energy Success Story be applied?

Farid Comaty Id: 10-939-700

fcomaty@student.ethz.ch

Energy Economics and Policy Term Paper

Professor Thomas Rutherford

Draft Paper submission, 20 April 2011

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1- Introduction

Lebanon, with a population of 4.14 million, is a developing country that

suffered from a destructive 25 years old war which ended 2 decades ago

with no significant peace agreement between the local and international

parties. It endured another month-long conflict in 2006 against Israel

which caused considerable economic and environmental damages. The

poorly operated Lebanese power system is a direct consequence of these

wars and one of the main reasons that led Lebanon to reach a public debt

of 52 Billion$ (Ministry of Finance). With a GDP of 34.5 Billion$, Lebanon

has been ranked third by the CIA World Factbook in the list of countries by

public debt to % of GDP (150.7%). Only 4.5% of the energy consumption is

internally supplied, virtually all of the imported energy origins from oil,

thus resulting in low energy security and a vulnerable economy dependent

on price volatility of foreign oil. Moreover, the government of Lebanon

heavily subsidized conventional fuel to cover up for insufficient revenues as

the tariff of electricity is set far to low compared to cost of production.

Therefore, there is an urge to restructure Lebanon's energy policies and its

electric supply industry to be able to sustain economic development with a

1.2% growth rate in population (CIA WorldFactBook, 2010) otherwise a

status quo would lead to the industry's bankruptcy with tremendous

increase in blackouts and bring the country back to the dark ages.

This paper will first describe the status of the energy sector in Lebanon

emphasizing on its detrimental effects on the economy and discuss the on

going energy policies. It will move on to study the success of the Indian

energy policies to promote renewable energies in a developing country such

as India. Finally, an economic model will be constructed to find a way in to

wind energy considering that conventional fuel is subsidized in Lebanon.

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2. Status of the Energy Sector in Lebanon Electricite du Liban (EDL) is a public establishment founded 1964 in

charge of the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity energy

in Lebanon. Bill collection also falls under the utility's responsibility. The

electricity market in Lebanon is monopolized by EDL whose financial deficit

averages to $1.5 billion/year for the past three years. (Ministry of Energy

and Water (MEW), 2010).

2.1 Production

In reference to the recent Power Sector Policy Paper of the MOEW, the

TPES of Lebanon in 2009 is divided as follows

Fig1: Share of TPES in 2010 in Lebanon

The average demand in 2009 was 2100 MW with an instantaneous peak in

the summer of 2450 MW. Thermal Power plants are used to generate 88%

of the electricity supply. 20% of the installed capacity (2000MW) is lost due

to bad maintenance and operations as they are operated on diesel oil

instead of natural gas. Similarly, 44% of the installed capacity (274MW) of

Hydro plants is lost. As 500 MW of power is lost during production,

4%

8%

88%

Share of Total Primary Energy Supply in 2010, 11500 GWh

Lebanon

Hydro Power Purchase from Syria and Egypt Fuel imports

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demand always exceeded supply with an average shortage of 350 MW and

a peak of 700MW. The power supply averaged 18 hours/day in the country

resulting in 6 hours of blackout/day. Hence, to obtain a "security of

supply" around 58% of private households and nearly 100% of commercial

and industrial enterprises are using back-up generation as an alternative

power supply (The World Bank, 2009). Private generators are privately

owned back up diesel generators that supply energy to the neighborhood

when EDL fails to do it. Private generators have been providing on average

33% of the electricity demand in Lebanon since the war started. (World

Bank 2009).

2.2 Average Cost The average cost of electricity in 2009; including EdL's fixed costs, was

17.14 ¢/kWh of which 10.77 ¢/kWh are fuel, and 6.37 ¢/kWh are for

generation, transmission and distribution. The contribution of the fuel bill

to the total cost of electricity production was around 1450 M$ (75%) and

1165 M$ (62%) in 2008 and 2009 respectively due to fluctuations in the

cost of fuel (MOEW). The private generation cost was estimated to be equal

to 1.3 Billion$ in 2009 (MEW, 2010). Since they provides 5000 GWh, their

average cost is 26 ¢/kWh.

2.3 Losses of the power system The total losses on the system are about 40% (more than $300 million):

15% technical losses and 25% non-technical Losses. The non- technical

losses essentially comprises of non-billed electricity consumption (either

through illegal connection or unclear agreement with distribution of

electricity) translates in 150 M$ loss revenue for EDL due to a weak billing

system and political interference within the industry. (World Bank 2008)

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2.4 Electricity Tariff

The tariff of electricity in Lebanon is set on average to 9.6¢/kWh, far below

the cost of recovery (17¢/kWh). The reason why the tariff is set below cost

of production dates back to 1996 when the government decided to set the

floor price for the tariff at 9.6 ¢/kWh (reflecting the cost of 25$ of an oil

barrel in 1996) to protect the citizens from oil price fluctuations (MEW,

2010). Therefore, with the tremendous rise of international oil prices in the

last decade and overall inefficient technology and management of the

sector, electricity production cost rose considerably and increasing

substantial amount of subsidies were transferred from the government to

EDL. Figure 2 highlights the correlation between the average crude oil price

and the subsidies transferred to EDL between 2001 and 2009 and

underline the burden to the GoL as a % of Primary expenditure. Values

were obtained from the Ministry of Finance.

Fig 2: Transfer of Subsidies from GoL to EDL in relation with average

Crude Oil Price in US$/year

From fig 2, the subsidies transferred to EDL in 8 years sums up to 6.6

Billions $ and represents a cumulative 40% of government expenditure.

It can be observed that the 2008 spike of international oil price highlighted

the "vulnerability of Lebanon's fiscal position to outside factors of the

189 203 278 328 555 913 986 1620 1506

24 25 29

38

54

65 72

97

61

6 6 7 8 12

19 19 25

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Subsidy transfer to EDL (Million $) Average Crude Oil Price US$/barrel

Subsidies as % of Primary Expenditure

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budget process" (World Bank, 2008) as the government had to pay in 2008

1.6 Billion$ (400$/person) to cover the deficit of the sector. It is interesting

to compare the difference between the amount of subsidies transferred in

2006 and 2009 for a similar average crude oil price. One would expect the

transfer to drop back to 900 Million $ after 2008 but it summed up to be

1.5 Billion$, just 7% lower than in 2008 compared to 2006 which was 44%

lower than in 2008. This comparison outlines the substantial increase in

demand for electricity in 3 years and shows that not only the increase in oil

prices is to blame for the deficit of the sector but also the sorry state of the

power system and its poor management.

2.5 The Future burden on the Economy

In the Public Expenditure Review (PER) prepared by Electricite De France

(EDF) and the World Bank, the cost of energy not supplied (VOLL) has been

estimated to an average value of $700 per MWh (MEW, 2010). Recalling

that an average 3500 GWh is not supplied, VOLL sums to losses of $2.5

billion in 2009 for the Lebanese economy, which is divided between $1.3

billion for private generation and $1.2 billion for direct consumer losses

(Transmission and Distribution losses). Adding to it 1.5 Billion$ of

Subsidies transferred to EDL, the present total losses sum up to 4 billion$

in 2009.

With an expected GDP growth rate per year of 5.9% and demand elasticity

to GDP growth assumption of 1.2, the future demand in Lebanon in 2015

is expected to be 4000MW (World Bank 2008). Based on this forecast,

Lebanon (EDL and self-generation) would need to boost their actual

capacity by a factor of 1.6 (add 1500MW) to meet the demand. The

Minister of Energy and Water predicted the losses to the economy and the

cumulative financial burden to Lebanon if a status quo in production is

kept until 2015. The values predicted have been used in Fig 2 to illustrate

the forecast.

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Fig 2: Forecasted Total Losses for Lebanon

We can observe that the cost for private generators quadrupled in 2015

and the cost of energy not supplied (VOLL) tripled. The cumulative total

loss in 6 years including the subsidies reaches 45 Billion$.

2.7 Current Policies The GoL is of course well aware of the current situation and is trying to

reform its policies. In 2002, the parliament passed Law 462 initiating a

platform for an energy revolution in Lebanon based on three major points:

the unbundling and corporatization of EDL, the establishment of a

regulatory authority and the recognition of independent power producers.

However, due to the current political chessboard in Lebanon and

unwillingness to unify forces, there has been no real implementation of this

policy and many promised foreign investments, example of the Paris III

conference, have been frozen until the policy kicks in (1.5 Billion$). (World

Bank, 2008)

Following Law 462, the most important reform is the recent electric power

policy released in June 2010 by the MEW. The policy proposes a total

investment of 5 Billion$ to eliminate the subsidies and to supply 24 hr

electricity in 2015. The main points can be summarized to:

1300 1690 2150 2660 3220 3835

4520 1140

1480 1845

2235

2655

3100

3580

1500 1250

1275

1320

1360

1400

1440

3940 4425

5270

6215

7235

8335

9540

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Cost Of Private Generator M$ Economic cost VOLL M$

Subsidies to EDL M$ Total losses M$

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Fuel Switching from Oil to Natural Gas

Construction of 2 new power plants

Rehabilitation of old thermal and hydro plants

100 MW generation from Wind Energy via the private sector

Completing the infrastructure of the Arab gas Pipeline to improve

transmission service of Natural Gas

Reduce technical losses from 15 to 10 % and improve billing system

Complete the Lebanese National Electricity Regulator Center

Develop a monitoring center to introduce new services to customers

(feed in tariffs)

Demand Side Management by spreading of the culture of proper

electricity use

Increase the penetration of Solar Water Heaters and Compact

Fluorescent lamp

Gradually increase the tariff in conjunction with improved supply of

electricity (Table 3)

Implement Time of Use tariffs (night reduced)

Corporatization of EDL

Establish norms and standards for Green Buildings based on

international standards.

Table 1: Proposed Tariff Restructure

The proposed tariff restructure is based on a study done by the World

Bank in 2009 on the willingness to pay in Lebanon for a 24 hr electricity

supply. The results are shown in the graph below:

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Fig 5: High Willingness to Pay (World Bank,2008)

The graph shows that 50% of the households in Lebanon are willing to pay

double their current expenditure, which consists of a fee ranging from 80

to 200$ to EDL in addition to a 20 to 40$ for private generator. According

to the secretary of high council of privatization in Lebanon (Interview,

NowLebanon) there is over a million of subscribers to EDL. Since half of

million are willing to pay between 200$ to 480$, the total willingness to pay

sums up to 100 Million$-240 Million$. Recalling that on average 3500 GWh

is not supplied, Lebanese Citizens will be willing to pay more 2.8 to

6.9¢/kWh for a 24 hr supply. This is captured in the increase of tariff from

9.6 to 14.78 ¢/kWh. Thus, it will not be used as an argument to reduce the

feed-in-tariff offered to wind power producers. However, the negative value

in 2015 for the subsidies, which actually means profit for the GoL, will be

highly important when analyzing the feasibility of the feed-in tariff for wind

energy.

This ambitious policy has triggered for the first time in Lebanon an energy

forum in Beirut where officials from the ministries of energy in the

Mediterranean region, investors, decision makers, and banks participated.

This is a good sign for Lebanon since no development will occur if investors

are not attracted. The focus of the paper will shift now to understand the

secret of the success of wind energy in India and the energy policies used

to promote it.

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3. The emergence of giant India

India has been recognized by the Washington based Worldwatch Institute

as a "Wind Superpower", currently ranking fourth in the most installed

wind capacity with 13065 MW behind China, USA, Germany and Spain

(Global Wind Energy Council, 2010). India is also the 5th largest world

manufacturer of wind turbines thanks to its national Company Suzlon

which contributes to 8% of the wind energy world market shares and was

just founded in 1995 (Minister of New and Renewable Energy in India).

With a rate of growth of 34% per annum since 2004 (Energy Alternatives

India), it is a legitimate question to ask ourselves what is the secret to the

successful economic boom of this sector in a country with a GDP (PPP) per

capita of 3400$ ranked behind 132 countries (total of 194) by the CIA

World Factbook in 2010.

3.1 Establishment of a Formal Ministry for Renewable

Energy

One main thrust to this growth in this developing country was the

transformation of the Department of Non-Conventional Energy into the

Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy (MNCE) in 1992 and adopted the

name Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in 2006. India is

probably the only country in the world with a full-fledged ministry

dedicated to the production of energy form renewable sources. (K.Mallet

2001). This step was critical for India as it separated the tasks of the two

Ministries and increased the responsibilities and productivity of the

renewable energy sector. The MNCE was solely focusing on policy making,

planning, promotion, financial incentives, creation of industrial capacity,

R&D and technology development, international relations … all related to

the aspects of renewable energy (MNRE).

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3.2 The Electricity Act of 2003

This Act restructured the monopolistic vertically integrated electricity

supply in each state of India by unbundling it into a transmission utility

and a number of generating and distributing utilities. The Act also

established a State Electricity Regulatory to set the tariff of electricity and

to specify the minimum percentage of renewable electricity to be fed to the

distribution utility. Open access was also allowed on the transmission

system, giving freedom of choice to consumer to buy electricity from any

generator (GWIC, 2009). It is noteworthy to underline the similarity of

content between this act and Law 462 in Lebanon and their year of

publication.

3.3 Energy Policies

The Minister of New and Renewable Energy in India geared the green

revolution by introducing innovative energy policies and financial

incentives for local and international investors. Most important ones are:

80% accelerated depreciation allowance of capital cost in one year

which means that investors in wind farms were able to deduct

1.2 Million $ out of their taxable income and save tax money (Using

an investment cost of 1.5 Million$/MW).

10 year tax holiday on Income from sale of power generated by

renewable energy (GWIC, 2009).

Average Feed In tariff of 8 ¢/kWh for an average period of time of 15

years (depends on different State). The feed in tariff is a subsidy

offered by the State Electricity Board to wind power producers to

ensure they have a guaranteed market during a specific period for the

energy generated (India Clean Tech Forum ,2007).

Generation Based Incentive Tariff, which grants an additional

1.1 ¢/kWh for each unit supplied to the grid by independent wind

power producers (provided they do not declare the accelerated

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depreciation). GBI is used to incentivize wind power producers to

maximize the efficiency of plant. (GWIC)

Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO). The Central Electricity

Regulation Commission (ERCE) has mandated a compulsory 6%

generation from Renewable Energy to all power utilities India. The

State of Tamil Nadu with the highest installed capacity of wind

turbines (4.9 GW) is able to cover 14%. If the obligation is not met,

eligible supplier pays fee of 16.1 c/kWh per unit of shortage.

Renewable Energy Certificates (REC). The REC can be traded on

Exchanges between Green Energy Producers and Energy Deficient

Entities who need to meet their Renewable Energy Targets (Green

World Investor)

The Availability Based Tariff was introduced in 2000 to enhance

stability in the grid. It consists of scheduling the day ahead the

generation and consumption. The day is divided in 96 periods of 15

min each and the generator announces its availability to generate

and, based on that, the beneficiary prepare their schedule. In the

case of deviation from plan (generator produces more or less,

beneficiary draws more or less), the responsible party is charged a

payment by the ERCE. (Kerala State Electricity Board)

3.5 Past, Present and Future Growth

The success of these policies can be proven in the graph below:

Fig 4: Ten Year Growth of Indian Wind Market Cumulative Capacity

in MW

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We can clearly see that the Electricity act of 2003 was the key that

triggered the boom of Wind Energy in India as the installed capacity

increased annually by 35% in 5 years (from 2125 MW to 9645 MW).

The energy policies that were adapted proved to be successful in

attracting local and foreign investors. With forecasts by the Global

Wind Energy Council estimating the capacity of wind to reach 60 GW

by 2020, "India is being touted as THE current global wind investment

destination" and we seem to understand the reason.

3.6 Learning from their Mistakes

It is true that the sector evolved quickly, however it is not as efficient as it

is supposed to be. Actually, only 1.6% of actual power production in India

comes from wind although the installed capacity is 6% (GWIC). The reason

is that the government focused more on the quantity rather than the

quality. With an 80% depreciation allowed, companies installed plants, not

to generate power, but to gain tax and depreciation benefits. Even more, it

was discovered in 2006 that a wind farm was only existing in papers as

windmill owners made false depreciation claims to evade taxes; to the tune

of 161 Billion $ (Indian Environmental portal, 2008). The move from

investment-based incentives to generation-based incentives has started

with the initiation of GBI in 2009 but is taking up slow because its current

rate is still less attractive than the accelerated depreciation (GWIC, 2009).

Also, in the early stages of the installations of wind farms, the grid in India

was unable to support all the fluctuations of frequency and voltages due to

the stochastic nature of wind power and thus failed to transmit any power

from wind farms. The hype for wind energy was nearly destroyed as big

turbines were just standing there and no power was produced (Center for

Science and Environment, 2008) The GoI directly invested in rehabilitating

the grid to be able to support the fluctuations and established standards

and norms for wind power producers to interconnect with the grid.

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The end-goal of the paper resumes to translate the success of India to

Lebanon and to build a model to integrate Wind energy in Lebanon based

on the current situation of the country.

4. Wind Energy in Lebanon

4.1 The potential

At first glance, it is difficult to imagine that Lebanon would be a good

candidate to invest in Wind Energy projects. Nonetheless, the consulting

company GL.Hassan constructed the wind map of Lebanon this year to

identify the key locations for investors to invest in wind energy projects.

Fig 4: Electrification of Lebanon Fig 5: Wind map of Lebanon

Even though Lebanon's power system is poorly operated, it still achieves

100% electrification (MEW). So planning the construction of a wind farm in

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the north of Lebanon, where the average wind speed at 80m is 9m/s, is not

outrageous as it will be possible to connect it to an existing grid. Of course

the grid should be rehabilitated, but the investments cost will not be as

high as building it from scratch.

4.2 Assumptions

It will be assumed for the purpose of this paper that the recent Power

Policy will be vigorously implemented in Lebanon and a regulatory center

will exist. The tariff restructure proposed by the powers reform policy

(Table 1) accumulates a gradual tariff increase by 54% in 2015 with no

subsidies longer transferred to EDL and a ideal 24 hr supply. In that 24 hr

supply comes in 100 MW of wind Energy which will be supplied by the

private sector. The goal is now to propose a feasible feed in tariff that can

be financed by the GoL and achieve at the same time a high rate of return

to attract investors.

To generate 100 MW of power from wind, we will use 100 turbines with

nominal power of 1 MW provided by Suzlon company for 1.5 Million$ each

(Center for Science and Environment, 2008). The wind farm will be located

in the North of Lebanon where an average wind speed of 9m/s blows at

80m. We will assume that Lebanon will struggle like India to draw

effectively the power due to the immaturity of the technology and the grid

in Lebanon, thus the load factor assumed is 15% (Center for Science and

Environement, 2008). Usually it ranges between 25 – 35% in European

Countries for that speed. We will assume a grid cost of 20% of the

investment for the turbine because the Lebanese grid needs to be

rehabilitated and a 2 % annual maintenance cost. The following table

summarizes the assumptions.

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Table 2: Assumptions of Model

4.3 Dynamic Economic Calculations

The calculations rely on the classical discounting methods that take into

account the net present value of money. The first year is the heavy year in

the cash flow statement because of the initial investment. The profit this

year will be negative and equal to the Net Present Value. In the second

year, the operation cost and revenues are discounted by 5% (money loses

value with time). With no investment cost, the cash flow this year is

positive and added to the negative N.P.V of the first year to give the N.P.V of

the second year. Repeating the procedure for 20 years, we obtain the cash

flow of a 100 MW Wind farm in Lebanon. By trial and error, the F.I.B that

satisfy both, the GoL and the investors, was found to be 30 ¢/kWh.

Table 3: Summary of Calculations

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Table 4: Data of Cash Flow for wind farm

4.4 Discussion: how to finance the Feed in Tariff ?

First, it is clear to see that the wind project is attractive to investor who can

bear the initial investment cost since the rate of return is 55.3% in 20

years. The question to ask is if the GoL is able to finance it. The first

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recommendation to bring down the tariff is to make use of the Clean

Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is a flexibility mechanism

defined by the Kyoto Protocol that allows industrialized countries to meet

their emission reduction target by investing in renewable projects where it

is cheapest. By obtaining a Certified Emission Reduction (CER), developed

countries can meet their Cap more efficiently with lower overall cost. A

simple calculation based on a model applied in India (India Environmental

Portal, 2008) shows that in theory the benefit from Certified Emissions

Reports is equal to 2.9 ¢/kWh.

Table 5: CDM calculations based on the article Wind is big published in the

Indian Environmental Portal on August 2008

The next step is to find how much the government will need to subsidize

wind given that it is also subsidizing fuel (recall the cost of production of

electricity in Lebanon is 17.14¢/kWh compared to a tariff set to

9.6¢/kWh). Based on the tariff increase and assuming that in 2015 the

GoL will make a profit of 201 Million$ (MEW, 2010), a table was

constructed to show that it is possible to subsidize wind in the same time

as conventional fuel because it was found that the expected profit of 2015

will be able to cover the total amount of subsidies transferred to the wind

farm in the first 5 years. The table considers also the amount of money

saved from the import of oil barrels equivalent to producing 131 GWh from

wind energy. The price of crude oil is assumed constant for the next five

years.

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The total amount of subsidies transferred to the wind farm in 5 years

covers half of the expected revenues in 2015 if the policy is rigorously

implemented. Therefore, GoL is totally capable of financing such a project.

If the CDM was not implemented, the total amount of subsidies to be

transferred would be 120 Million$, hence CDM contributes in reducing

20% of the project cost which is not to be neglected. Moreover, it turned

out that it is more beneficial to subsidize wind compared to buying barrels

of diesel oil given the exceptional high price of non-taxed diesel oil in

Lebanon (Commerce du Levant). It is also worth mentioning that the feed in

tariff that was found could be drastically reduced if the load factor was

closer to the European standard and thus subsidies would even more

decrease. Furthermore, after 2015 the amount of subsidies to be

transferred sums up to 16 Million$ which represents only 8% of the

expected revenue in 2015. Besides, such a project would create a niche

market for wind energy with many job opportunities, leads to growth,

attract more investors and CDMs, decrease CO2 emissions, launch a trend

for renewable energy projects and on the long run decrease the imports of

fuel and thus increase the energy security of the country.

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5. Conclusion

Lebanon is in a drastic situation facing sky-scraping financial risks

as it has been struggling to reform its power sector and energy policies. A

status quo will definitely increase the external debt as EDL is draining the

government budget with subsidies to cover its cost of production. Hope is

not lost and the country is standing back on his feet this year as the

government agreed upon investing 5 billion$ in the power sector to meet

the daily energy gap. It is in the intention of the GoL to exploit the high

potential the country has for wind energy.

The paper had two goals. The first one was to understand how a

developing country like India was able to become today a "Wind

Superpower" and draw concluding remarks for Lebanon to learn from the

success and mistakes of India. The most recommended actions to follow

would be to unbundle the power sector to allow the integration of

Independent Power Producers, to introduce investment-based incentives

coupled with stronger generation-based incentives to ensure generation

efficiency, to form a ministry of renewable energy, to implement the

Availability Based Tariff to enhance the stability of the grid and to attract

CDM funding through energy forums. The second goal was to analyze the

integration of a 100 MW wind farm in Lebanon financed by the private

sector and to propose a F.I.T. It was found that it is in the full capabilities

of the GoL to finance an F.I.T of 30¢/kWh and it would offer an attractive

rate of return to investors of 55% in 20 years. GoL would benefit from

subsidizing wind energy compared to buying diesel oil. Realistic

assumptions were used considering that the grid in Lebanon is immature.

The wind energy success story in India can definitely be applied in

Lebanon. With a secure power supply that eliminates costly private

generators and an advanced grid structure which enables an efficient

integration of renewable energy, the economy will grow attracting more

investors and Lebanon might finally gain back his pre-war conflict

surname "the Swiss of the Middle East"

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