Residential Single FamilyHVAC UES Measures

Proven and Planning UES Measure Proposals

Adam HadleyRegional Technical Forum

December 16, 2014

Background – This is a follow-up to:

• The August 2014 presentation– At that meeting, the RTF put a bunch

of issues on the whiteboard.

• And

• The September 2014 presentation– At that meeting, the RTF:

• adopted the proposed Weatherization savings, but not the HVAC measures

• gave staff the direction to add measure identifiers to the heat pump conversion measures.

Background - 2

Today, we’ll revisit the HVAC Measures

Measure(s) Overview Overview - 3

Measures

1. ASHP Conversions - Convert existing electric FAF to central air source heat pump2. ASHP Upgrades - Install a new a) 9.0 ASHP, or b) Variable Capacity HP3. Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, & Sizing (CC&S) - When installing a new heat pump, follow CC&S spec.4. Performance-based Duct Sealing - Tighten existing duct system to spec.5. Ductless Heat Pumps - Install DHP in main living area of zonal electric heated house.

Measure Developers RTF, Ecotope, BPA

Technical Subcommittee Review

Yes

Research & Evaluation Core Group Review

Yes, for CC&S Research Plan.

UES Key Inputs

Notes: All measures are additive (except: “9.0 upgrade + VCHP upgrade”, and DHP’s). Things in red are new, as compared to existing measures. ASHP = Central air-source heat pump

Overview - 4

Measure Baseline Efficient-CaseMeasure

Interaction Methodology

Measure Category

Existing Proposed

ASHP Conversions Existing electric FAF

New Standard Practice ASHP

Measure Identifiers

(Good, Fair, Poor)Proven Proven

ASHP Upgrade (9.0) New Standard Practice ASHP

New 9.0 or > HSPF ASHP “Option 3” Proven Proven

ASHP Upgrade (VCHP)

New Standard Practice ASHP

New 10.0 or > HSPF inverter-driven ASHP

“Option 3” Provisional Proven

Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing

New Standard Practice ASHP

New Heat Pump installed to CC&S Spec

“Option 3” Proven Planning

Performance-based Duct Sealing

RBSA Average Duct Leakage 9% Leakage “Option 3” Proven Provisional

Ductless Heat Pumps

Existing zonal electric heat

DHP in main living area “Option 3” Proven Proven

“SEEM-affected HVAC Measures Subcommittee”

• Dec 2, 2014 2:00pm – 4:00pm• Heat Pump Conversion Measure

– Reviewed and recommend the RTF use the measure identifier methodology and associated calculator. (David Baylon agreed, too, afterward.)

• Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing Measure– Reviewed and recommend the RTF adopt the revised measure

specifications.– Agreed to use a 90% compliance rate factor in the planning UES

estimate.– Agreed (with quick review) the Research Plan looks reasonable

and will get us closer to proven category.• Performance-based Duct Sealing Measure

– Reviewed and agreed with baseline and efficient-case assumptions for the provisional UES estimate.

– Agreed the “Research Plan” should be simply to wait for BPA’s evaluation results, and re-assess at that time.

Technical Subcommittee - 5

Attendees:Mark JeromeAdam HadleyRick KnoriDavid BoppBill HarrisMark JohnsonCourtney DaleRobert WeberTom LeinhardMohit ChhabraDavid BaylonJosh RushtonCory ReadRobert DavisThomas AnreiseJim MaunderBen LarsonBob DavisJenn Anziano

Air-Source Heat Pump Conversions

ASHP Conversions - 6

AtticWallFloor10689121171113610625

Heat Pump Conversion Measure Identifiers• Previous Proposal (Option 3)

– HP Conversion savings• 3279 kWh/yr

• Today’s Proposal (measure identifiers)– Calculator tool [LINK] to establish insulation levels

• Method: Evenly split the range of possible savings (based on range of Uo’s in RBSA) into three bins

– HP Conversion Savings (Heating zone 1)• 7020 kWh/yr where house has “Poor Insulation”• 4815 kWh/yr where house has “Fair Insulation”• 2610 kWh/yr where house has “Good Insulation”

• Example:– House with eFAF receives attic insulation, wall insulation, floor insulation, and heat pump. Compare the sum of savings

with various orders of installation of the heat pump (before, after, and in-between insulation jobs; assume 1-year between each measure installation). Sum of savings should be the same.

ASHP Conversions - 7

Measure FAF HPattic 0-38 3511 2083wall 0-11 2751 1063Floor 0-25 1659 318

Weatherization Savings

Given: Previous Proposal

Today’s Proposal

HP 1stHP 2ndHP 3rdHP 4th

Savings

Measure Order

AverageMax-Min(Max-Min)/Avg

Compare

AtticWallFloor674381719541112008914445750%

11142149213%

Reminder: Subcommittee reviewed and agreed with this methodology. Changes made after the subcommittee review: Incorporate Phase II calibration, and run methodology for heating zones 2 and 3.

Remaining Question from Subcommittee

• Should Duct Sealing be modeled as “last measure in”, or “first measure in”?– Savings shown here use LMI.

• Justification: Less likely to double-count savings. (And it’s how we’ve done things in the past.)

– Some on subcommittee recommended FMI.• Justification: The RBSA is a good reflection of what

houses look like. We don’t want to undercount savings.

– (Q: Why not use “Option 3”? A: Complexity)

ASHP Conversions - 8

Measure Cost Inputs

• Measure cost methodology same as proposed in August

• Measure Life: 15 years

ASHP Conversions - 9

Insulation Level Heating Zone Average Tons HP Cost (2006$'s) CAC Cost (2006$'s) FAF Cost (2006$'s)Good 1 1.8 $4,871 $1,492 $778Good 2 1.8 $4,908 $1,509 $778Good 3 1.9 $4,955 $1,530 $778Fair 1 2.7 $5,397 $1,726 $838Fair 2 3.4 $5,726 $1,872 $1,045Fair 3 3.4 $5,767 $1,890 $1,045Poor 1 4.8 $6,511 $2,221 $1,151Poor 2 4.9 $6,558 $2,242 $1,151Poor 3 4.9 $6,562 $2,244 $1,151

• All measures are cost-effective

ASHP Conversions - 10

Results

All Measures are cost-effective, except "Good Insulation" HZ3 (all cooling zones).

ASHP Conversions - 11

Results

Decision

• “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Conversions and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.”

ASHP Conversions - 12

Air-Source Heat Pump Upgrades

ASHP Upgrades - 13

Measure: Upgrade to 9.0 HSPF

• Changes– Unit Energy Savings

• Used updated, calibrated SEEM• “Option 3” for measure interactions

• Measure Cost: $81

ASHP Upgrades - 14

ChangesMeasure: Upgrade to Variable Capacity Heat Pump

• Unit Energy Savings– Used updated, calibrated SEEM– “Option 3” for measure interactions– Incorporated findings from provisional research (plan)

• Report: Hunt, W. 2013. Laboratory Testing of Residential, Variable Speed Heat Pump. Bonneville Power Administration. Portland, OR.

– Lab test in “Efficiency Mode”

• Report: Larson, B., B. Davis, J. Uslan, and L. Gilman. “Residential Variable Capacity Heat Pump Field Study.” Prepared for BPA by Ecotope. August 30, 2013. [LINK]

– 8-week field study of 6 units in Bend– Units were set up in “Comfort Mode”; otherwise good comparison with lab results– Developed SEEM performance curves

• Measure definition: 10.0 HSPF or higher; central system with variable capacity using an inverter driven compressor

Note: Because measure is not cost-effective, this measure received less due-diligence from RTF Contract Analysts than DHP’s and HPWH’s, for example. Inputs and savings look reasonable, however.

ASHP Upgrades - 15

Measure: Upgrade to Variable Capacity Heat Pump

• VCHP Install Cost: $3,958/ton– Limited Data– Source: Invoices, Project Bids, Installer

Interviews– Used lower quartile because of

“extras”– 2014$’s

• Measure Cost (3 ton, 2006$’s)– 8.5 HSPF (baseline)

• $5,523• (Source: Mark Jerome)

– VCHP• $10,443

– Measure cost: $4,920

ASHP Upgrades - 16

Duct ExtraCost Tons Cost/Ton Repair? Work?

21,741$ 4 5,435$ TRUE TRUE54,938$ 6 9,156$ TRUE TRUE22,417$ 4 5,604$ TRUE TRUE9,677$ 3 3,226$ FALSE FALSE

17,079$ 3 5,693$ TRUE23,269$ 4 5,817$ TRUE12,351$ 3 4,117$ TRUE17,455$ 3 5,818$ TRUE15,213$ 3 5,071$ TRUE15,395$ 3 5,132$ TRUE17,153$ 4 4,288$ TRUE15,830$ 4 3,958$ TRUE13,545$ 4 3,386$ TRUE10,400$ 3 3,467$ FALSE FALSE12,000$ 3 4,000$ FALSE FALSE13,000$ 4 3,250$ FALSE FALSE14,500$ 3 4,833$ FALSE TRUE

Percentile All0% 3,226$ 25% 3,958$ 50% 4,833$ 75% 5,604$

100% 9,156$ mean 4,838$

All 9.0 HSPF upgrades are cost-effective. None of the VCHP upgrades are cost-effective.

ASHP Upgrades - 17Results

DecisionASHP Upgrades - 18

• “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.”

Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing

HP CC&S - 19

Changes• Specifications [LINK] updated

– Subcommittee agreed with where the July 2013 subcommittee landed, and agreed with removing PTCS QC/QA/Certification/Training requirements (reason for removing “PTCS” from the name).

• Research Plan [LINK]– Technical Subcommittee agreed with research plan– Evaluation Subcommittee raised some questions and needs more time– Summary

• Field visit of 150 Baseline Houses• Field visit of 150 Efficient-case Houses• Results will be used to true-up model input assumptions to today’s practices• Budget: ~$350,000

• Unit Energy Savings (Planning)– Used updated, calibrated SEEM– “Option 3” for measure interactions– 90% specification compliance rate (technical subcommittee-proposed)– Modeling assumes 80% airflow in baseline, based on 2005 NEEA/Ecotope Heat

Pump Study (now a capability of SEEM)

HP CC&S - 20

• All measures are cost-effective.• Note: Measure Cost = $512 (2006$’s), per SIW (no change)

HP CC&S - 21Results

DecisionHP CC&S - 22

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure specifications, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing and set the measure to Planning category with Under Review status and a sunset date of 4/2015.”

Note: The purpose of the Under Review status and sunset date of 4/2015, is to give time to finalize the Research Plan.

Performance-based Duct Sealing

Performance-based Duct Sealing - 23

Changes• Unit Energy Savings (Provisional)

– Used updated, calibrated SEEM– “Option 3” for measure interactions– Baseline now set at average RBSA duct leakage levels

• Research Plan: – Plan: Wait for BPA re-evaluation, then re-assess

• No separate written plan, just this.

– Sunset date 12/2015 (BPA plans to finish Q4-2015)• Removed “PTCS” from the name

– Seen as a program branding– Avoid confusing CC&S with duct sealing– Avoid confusing with “prescriptive duct sealing”

Performance-based Duct Sealing - 24

• All measures are cost-effective.• Note: Measure cost = $750 (2006$’s), per SIW (no change)

Performance-based Duct Sealing - 25

Decision

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the Provisional Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Performance-based Duct Sealing and set the measure to Provisional category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.”

Performance-based Duct Sealing - 26

Ductless Heat Pumps

DHP - 27

Changes

• Unit Energy Savings– Incorporated “Option 3” for measure interactions

DHP - 28

All Proposed measures are cost-effective, except HZ3 CZ1. (No change from Existing.)

DHP - 29

Decision

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the update (“Option 3”) to the measure savings for the UES measure Single Family Ductless Heat Pumps. The measure definition, cost, life, and sunset date will remain the same.”

DHP - 30

Additional Slides

31

Decisions• “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition,

cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Conversions and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.”

• “I _________ move the RTF approve the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Upgrades and set the measure to Proven category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2019.”

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the Planning Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Heat Pump Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing and set the measure to Planning category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.”

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the Provisional Research plan and the updates to the measure definition, cost, life, and savings for the UES measure Single Family Performance-based Duct Sealing and set the measure to Provisional category with Active status and a sunset date of 12/2015.”

• “I ________ move the RTF approve the update (“Option 3”) to the measure savings for the UES measure Single Family Ductless Heat Pumps. The measure definition, cost, life, and sunset date will remain the same.”

All - 32

Slide from August 2014 PresentationMethodology for Estimating Costs for

FAFHP and ZonalDHP Measures

Net Incremental Cost = Heat Pump Cost – CAC Cost Credit – RAC Cost Credit – FAF Replacement Cost(FAF replacement cost = $1030 for HP; not applicable to DHP)

33

MeasureClimate

Zone

Heat Pump Cost

CAC Replacement

Cost

Houses Forecasted

to have CAC (without measure)

CAC Cost

"Credit"

RAC Replacement

Cost

Houses Forecasted to have RAC

RAC Cost

"Credit"

Net Incremental

Cost

FAF w /CAC to HP HZ 1 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ FAF w /CAC to HP HZ 2 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ FAF w /CAC to HP HZ 3 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ1, CZ1 5,052$ 1,677$ 4% 67$ 416$ 13% 52$ 3,902$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ1, CZ2 5,052$ 1,677$ 47% 788$ 416$ 53% 220$ 3,014$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ1, CZ3 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ2, CZ1 5,052$ 1,677$ 4% 67$ 416$ 13% 52$ 3,902$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ2, CZ2 5,052$ 1,677$ 47% 788$ 416$ 53% 220$ 3,014$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ2, CZ3 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ3, CZ1 5,052$ 1,677$ 4% 67$ 416$ 13% 52$ 3,902$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ3, CZ2 5,052$ 1,677$ 47% 788$ 416$ 53% 220$ 3,014$ FAF w /o CAC to HP HZ3, CZ3 5,052$ 1,677$ 100% 1,677$ 416$ 0% -$ 2,345$ Zonal to DHP HZ1, CZ1 3,606$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 17% 70$ 3,536$ Zonal to DHP HZ2, CZ1 3,426$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 17% 70$ 3,356$ Zonal to DHP HZ3, CZ1 3,228$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 17% 70$ 3,158$ Zonal to DHP HZ1, CZ2 3,606$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 59% 247$ 3,359$ Zonal to DHP HZ2, CZ2 3,426$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 59% 247$ 3,179$ Zonal to DHP HZ3, CZ2 3,228$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 59% 247$ 2,981$ Zonal to DHP HZ1, CZ3 3,606$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 100% 416$ 3,191$ Zonal to DHP HZ2, CZ3 3,426$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 100% 416$ 3,010$ Zonal to DHP HZ3, CZ3 3,228$ 1,677$ 0% -$ 416$ 100% 416$ 2,812$

3