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Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School www.culturalcognition.net “Motivated Numeracy”: What’s the Point? D an M .K ahan Y ale U n iversity

Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School “Motivated Numeracy”:

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Page 1: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

 Research Supported by:National Science Foundation, SES—0922714Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  

www.culturalcognition.net

“Motivated Numeracy”: What’s the Point?

Dan M. Kahan Yale University

Page 2: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

I. Two theories

II. Three studies

III. One synthesis

The science communication problem

Page 3: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Two theories

Public irrationality thesis (“PIT”)

Cultural cognition thesis (“CCT”)

Page 4: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:
Page 5: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Two theories

Public irrationality thesis (“PIT”)

Cultural cognition thesis (“CCT”)

Page 6: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Abortion procedure

Abortion procedure

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Guns/Gun Control

Guns/Gun Control

HPV Vaccination

HPV Vaccination

Gays military/gay parenting

Gays military/gay parenting

Environment: climate, nuclear

hierarchical communitarians

egalitarian individualists

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

egalitarian communitarians

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

cats/annoying varmints

cats/annoying varmints

hierarchical individualists

Page 7: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Two theories

Public irrationality thesis (“PIT”)

Cultural cognition thesis (“CCT”)

Page 8: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

I. Two theories

II. Three studies

III. One synthesis

The science communication problem

Page 9: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Three studies

Page 10: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:
Page 11: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

Perc

eive

d ri

sk

Science comprehensionLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

Science comprehension

PIT Prediction Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Greater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Page 12: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

Perc

eive

d ri

sk

Science comprehensionLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

Science comprehension

PIT Prediction Actual ResponseGreater

Lesser

Greater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

Page 13: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Hierarchy

Egalitarianism

Risk Perception KeyLow RiskHigh Risk

Individualism Communitarianism

Environment: climate, nuclear

Environment: climate, nuclear

Cultural Cognition Worldviews

Page 14: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Low High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highScience comprehension

PIT varianceGreater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser

CCT variance

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

HiearchIndividualist

EgalitarianCommunitaran

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

Page 15: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Low High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highScience comprehension

PIT varianceGreater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser

CCT variance

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

HiearchIndividualist

EgalitarianCommunitaran

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

What is relationship of PIT & CIT

Page 16: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Low High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highScience comprehension

PIT varianceGreater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser

CCT variance

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

HiearchIndividualist

EgalitarianCommunitaran

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Page 17: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Low High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highScience comprehension

PIT varianceGreater

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser

CCT variance

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

HiearchIndividualist

EgalitarianCommunitaran

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute

Page 18: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Science comprehension

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser -1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT Prediction Actual ResultGreater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

lowLow High

Science comprehension

Page 19: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Science comprehension

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser -1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT Prediction Actual ResultGreater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm

Low High

Science comprehension

Page 20: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Science comprehension

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser -1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT Prediction Actual ResultGreater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm

Low High

Science comprehension

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

Page 21: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low highLow High

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Science comprehension

Lesser

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

Greater

Lesser -1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

PIT Prediction Actual ResultGreater

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm

Low High

Science comprehension

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

High Sci lit/numeracymean Low Sci lit/numeracy

sample mean

POLARIZATION INCREASES as science comprehension increases

Page 22: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Three studies

Page 23: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Kahan, D.M. Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection. Judgment and Decision Making 8, 407-424 (2013).

Conservative RepublicanLow CRT

Liberal DemocratLow CRT

Conservative RepublicanHigh CRT

Liberal DemocratHigh CRT

Pro

babi

lity

of a

gree

ing

CR

T “v

alid

(A) (B)

control skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biasedcontrol skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biased10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Page 24: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:
Page 25: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Skin cream experiment”

Page 26: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Skin cream experiment”

Page 27: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Two conditions

Page 28: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

01

corr

ect i

nter

pre

tatio

n of

dat

a (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

Lowess smoother superimposed on raw data.

correct

incorrect

01

n_co

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

01n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

01

23

45

67

89

n_n

um

era

cy

skin

cre

am

Page 29: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

numeracy score at & above which subjects can be expected to correctly interpret data.

Numeracy

0.0

5.1

.15

.2D

ensi

ty

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Sample overall

Page 30: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Gun ban experiment”

Page 31: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Four conditions

Page 32: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

correct

incorrect

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

Correct interpretation of data

Gun ban

01n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

01

23

45

67

89

n_n

um

era

cy

skin

cre

am

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

correct

incorrect

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

01n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

01

23

45

67

89

n_n

um

era

cy

skin

cre

am

skin treatment

Page 33: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

correct

incorrect

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

01

corr

ect i

nter

pre

tatio

n of

dat

a (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreasescrime increases

Correct interpretation of data

skin treatment

Gun ban

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

correct

incorrect

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

01n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

01

23

45

67

89

n_n

um

era

cy

skin

cre

am

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

Correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

correct

incorrect

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

01n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

01

23

45

67

89

n_n

um

era

cy

skin

cre

am

Page 34: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Numeracy

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Conserv_Repub > 0M = 3.9, SD = 2.0

Conserv_Repub < 0M = 3.6, SD = 2.1

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Conserv_Repub is standardized sum of standardized responses to 5-point liberal-conservative ideology and 7-point party-self-identification measures.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

Numeracy scoreEntire Sample

Conserv_Repub > 0M = 3.9, SD = 2.0

Conserv_Repub < 0M = 3.6, SD = 2.1

Numeracy scorePolitical outlook subsamples

Page 35: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_co

rrect

inter

pret

ation

of d

ata

(=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

rash increases

rash decreasesrash decreases

rash increases

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

correct

incorrect

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

rash increases

rash decreasesrash decreases

rash increases

01

n_co

rrect interp

retatio

n of d

ata (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

correct

incorrect

Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skin treatment

Gun ban

Page 36: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

01

n_co

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ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

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ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

rash increases

rash decreasesrash decreases

rash increases

01

n_co

rrect interp

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n of d

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1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

correct

incorrect

Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skin treatment

Gun ban

Page 37: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

N = 1111. Outcome variable is “Correct” (0 = incorrect interpretation of data, 1 = correct interpretation). Predictor estimates are logit coefficients with z-test statistic indicated parenthetically. Experimental assignment predictors—rash_decrease, rash_increase, and crime_increase—are dummy variables (0 = unassigned, 1 = assigned—with assignment to “crime decreases” as the comparison condition. Z_numeracy and Conserv_Repub are centered at 0 for ease of interpretation. Bolded typeface indicates predictor coefficient is significant at p < 0.05.

Best fitting regression model for experiment results

rash_decrease 0.40 (1.57)rash increase 0.06 (0.22)crime increase 1.07 (4.02)z_numeracy -0.01 (-0.05)z_numeracy_x_rash_decrease 0.55 (2.29)z_numeracy_x_rash_increase 0.23 (1.05)z_numeracy_x_crime_increase 0.46 (2.01)z_numeracy2 0.31 (2.46)z_numeracy2_x_rash_decrease 0.02 (0.14)z_numeracy2_x_rash_increase -0.07 (-0.39)z_numeracy2_x_crime_increase -0.31 (-1.75)Conserv_Repub -0.64 (-3.95)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.56 (2.64)Conserv_Repub_x_rash_increase 1.28 (6.02)Conserv_Repub_x_crime_increase 0.63 (2.82)z_numeracy_x_Conserv_repub -0.33 (-1.89)z_nuneracy_x_Conserv_Repub_x_rash_decrease 0.33 (1.40)z_nuneracy_x__x_rash_increase 0.54 (2.17)z_nuneracy_x__x_crime_increase 0.26 (1.08)_constant -0.96 (-4.70)

Page 38: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0081

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0071

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0111

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0121

probabilility of correct interpretation of data

rash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

rash decreases

rash increases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime decreasescrime increases

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

crime decreases

crime increases

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

probabilility of correct interpretation of data0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

probabilility of correct interpretation of data

probabilility of correct interpretation of data

High numeracyLow numeracy

high numeracy = 7 correctlow numeracy = 3 correct

skin treatment

Gun ban

Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)

Page 39: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0081

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0121

probabilility of correct interpretation of data

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%probabilility of correct interpretation of data

Gun ban

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for high numeracypartisans

46% (± 17%)

Avg. “polarization”on crime data

for low numeracypartisans

25% (± 9%)

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime decreasescrime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

High numeracyLow numeracy

high numeracy = 7 correctlow numeracy = 3 correct

Liberal Democrat (-1 SD on Conservrepub)Conserv Republican (+1 SD on Conservrepub)

Page 40: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

High numeracyLow numeracy

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0166

probability of correct interpretation of data

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0223

probability of correct interpretation of data0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0374

probability of correct interpretation of data

0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0149

probability of correct interpretation of dataEC rash increases

HI crime decrease

HI crime increase

EC crime decrease

EC crime increase

HI crime decrease

HI crime increase

EC crime decrease

EC crime increase

HI rash increases

HI rash decreases

probabilility of correct interpretation of data probabilility of correct interpretation of data

EC rash decreasesEC rash decreases

EC rash increases

HI rash increases

HI rash decreases

skin treatment

high numeracy = 7 correctlow numeracy = 3 correct

Egalitarian communitarian (-1 SD on Hfac & Ifac)Hierarch individid (+1 SD on Hfac & Ifac)

Gun ban

Page 41: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

perc

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“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Page 42: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

I. Two theories

II. Three studies

III. One synthesis

The science communication problem

Page 43: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

A. The tragedy of the science communication commons

B. The pathology of antagonistic meanings

C. The science communication environment as a collective good

One synthesis

Page 44: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

The science communication problem

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POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

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High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

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U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

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correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

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gun ban

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correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

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crime decreases

crime increases

Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skin treatment

Gun ban

Conservative RepublicanLow CRT

Liberal DemocratLow CRT

Conservative RepublicanHigh CRT

Liberal DemocratHigh CRT

Pro

babi

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control skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biasedcontrol skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biased10%

20%

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Page 45: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

The science communication problem

Not too little rationality, but too much.

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“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

High Sci lit/numeracy

Low Sci lit/numeracy

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POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

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Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

01

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ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

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scatterplot: skin treatment

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Correct interpretation of data

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Pro

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control skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biasedcontrol skeptic-is-biased believer-is-biased10%

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Page 46: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

The science communication problem

Not too little rationality, but too much.

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“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

High Sci lit/numeracy

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POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

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U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

01

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scatterplot: skin treatment

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gun ban

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Page 47: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

A. The tragedy of the science communication commons

B. The pathology of antagonistic meanings

C. The science communication environment as a collective good

One synthesis

Page 48: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

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“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

High Sci lit/numeracy

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POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

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U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

The science communication problem

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Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

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Gun ban

Page 49: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

The science communication problemis not normal

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-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

perc

eive

d ris

k (z

-sco

re)

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

point 1 point 2

low vs. high sci

“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

High Sci lit/numeracy

Low Sci lit/numeracy

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

sci_num

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

sci_num

Low Sci lit/num.Hierarc Individ

POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases

High Sci lit/numeracyEgal Comm

High Sci lit/numeracyHierarch Individ

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Low Sci/lit numeracyEgal Comm

U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

01

correct interpretation of da

ta (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

rash decreases

rash increasesrash decreases

rash increases

Numeracy score01

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

corre

ct int

erpret

ation

of da

ta (=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_correct interpretation of data (=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

corr

ect

inte

rpre

tatio

n o

f data

(=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Correct interpretation of data

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skin treatment

Gun ban

Page 50: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Normal

Page 51: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Normal

X-ray radiation

“How much risk do you believe ... poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Climate change

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low high

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

science comprehensionrisk perception

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low highscience comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Medical x-ray risk perceptions

01

23

45

67

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21science literacy score

X-ray radiation

“How much risk do you believe ... poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Climate change

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01234567

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01234567

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low high

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

science comprehensionrisk perception

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low highscience comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

01

23

45

67

-2 -1 0 1 2

Egalitarian communitarian

Hierarch individualist

Egalitarian Individualist

Hierarch Communitarian

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

rash increases

rash decreasesrash decreases

rash increases

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

correct

incorrect

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skintreatment

Page 52: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Normal

Pathological

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

gun ban

Numeracy score

01

correct interpretation of data (

=1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9numeracy

scatterplot: skin treatment

crime decreases

crime increases

crime decreases

crime increases

Gun ban

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

low high

Greater

Lesser

Science literacy

Low High

perc

eive

d ri

sk (z-

scor

e) Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Actual Response

Climate change risk & Cultural Polarization

X-ray radiation

“How much risk do you believe ... poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Climate change

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01

23

45

67

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low high

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

science comprehensionrisk perception

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low highscience comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Medical x-ray risk perceptions

01

23

45

67

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21science literacy score

X-ray radiation

“How much risk do you believe ... poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Climate change

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01234567

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

01234567

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21science comprehension

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low high

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

science comprehensionrisk perception

no risk at all

Extremelyhigh risk

low highscience comprehension

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

Egalitarian Communitarian

Hierarchical Individualist

01

23

45

67

-2 -1 0 1 2

Egalitarian communitarian

Hierarch individualist

Egalitarian Individualist

Hierarch Communitarian

01

n_co

rrect in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

rash increases

rash decreasesrash decreases

rash increases

01

n_

co

rre

ct in

te

rp

re

ta

tio

n o

f d

ata

(=

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9n_numeracy

skin cream

Numeracy score

correct

incorrect

Liberal Democrats (< 0 on Conservrepub) Conserv Republicans (> 0 on Conservrepub)

skintreatment

Page 53: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

A. The tragedy of the science communication commons

B. The pathology of antagonistic meanings

C. The science communication environment as a collective good

One synthesis

Page 54: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Scicomm# enviornment Protection”

Page 55: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Scicomm# enviornment Protection”

“Mitigation”: Avoiding, detoxifying

Page 56: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

“Scicomm# enviornment Protection”

“Mitigation”: Avoiding, detoxifying

“Adaptation”: Fortifying reason

Page 57: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

I. Two theories

II. Three studies

III. One synthesis

The science communication problem

Page 58: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

Dan M. KahanYale Law School

Donald BramanGeorge Washington University

John GastilUniversity of Washington

Geoffrey CohenStanford University

Paul Slovic University of Oregon

Ellen PetersOhio State University

Hank Jenkins-SmithUniversity of Oklahoma

David HoffmanTemple Law School

Gregory MandelTemple Law School

Maggie WittlinCultural Cognition Project Lab

Lisa Larrimore-OueletteCultural Cognition Project Lab

Danieli EvansCultural Cognition Project Lab

June CarboneUniv. Missouri-Kansas City

Michael JonesVirginia Tech University

Naomi CahnGeorge Washington University

Jeffrey RachlinksiCornell Law School

John ByrnesCultural Cognition Project Lab

John MonahanUniversity of Virginia

Page 59: Research Supported by: National Science Foundation, SES—0922714 Cultural Cognition Lab, Yale Law School  “Motivated Numeracy”:

www. culturalcognition.net

“I am you!”