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“Rediscovering IndiaGlobal Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

“Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

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Page 1: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

“Rediscovering India”

Global Tracks

Manoj Motta – Session Chairman

AVP – Inorbit Malls (India)

May 22nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Page 2: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

1. Macro Economic Indicators

2. Consumption Forecasts & Consumer Behavioral Trends

3. Responses & Reactions of stake holders

a) Retailers/Brands

b) Real Estate

c) Financial Institutions

d) Government

4. SWOT Analysis

5. Changing Landscape

6. Infliction points

7. Summary

Presentation scope & flow :

Page 3: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

everyone wanted

Once upon a time India was the land

Page 4: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Lush Palaces

Majestic Forts

Exotic Diamonds

Monuments in Gold

Page 5: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

not to forget snake charmers, elephants & Art forms like kathakali

Page 6: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas
Page 7: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

the time has come backRediscovering “India”

Page 8: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

It started with the humble IT geek

Page 9: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

but now the list is endless

Page 10: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Express ways, A 380s

Page 11: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

lifestyle boutiques, trendy fashion, rocking entertainment

Page 12: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas
Page 13: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas
Page 14: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

and of course

Mallsand of course

Malls

Page 15: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas
Page 16: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas
Page 17: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

MALL has always been an Indian word – it means “Material”.

And is used vividly to describe good business,good thinking.

Page 18: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

all this is fueled by

Page 19: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

they are the heroes of today

they are the heroes of today

Page 20: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Educated

Demanding

Assertive

And wanting more

They have ideas

Opportunities

This is the NEW INDIA

Page 21: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

now let’s get into the heartof the matter

Page 22: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

1. Macro EconomicIndicators

1. Macro EconomicIndicators

Page 23: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Macro Economic Indicators- India

Page 24: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Improving macro economic variables…

GDP Growth Rate (%)

Years

Average growth of 6% since 1998 Inflation has remained at 5-6% range

Source : Business World, Marketing White Book – 2003 & 2005

4th largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity

2nd largest economy in terms of population

Amongst the top 10 GDP generators in the world

Global outsourcing hub – More than 200 of Fortune 500 companies use Information Technology (“IT”) services from India

Macro Economic Indicators- India (Continued)

Page 25: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

India is achievingself sufficiency – generating

disposable surpluses

Forex

Page 26: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

The Global Retail Development Index (GRDI)

Page 27: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

GRDI 2006 market attractiveness

Page 28: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Most Attractive Developing markets for retail by region

Page 29: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Window of opportunity analysis (based on GRDI Rankings for 1995 -2006)

Page 30: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Formats and timing patterns (based on GRDI ranking for 2004 – 2006)

Page 31: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Consumer Behavioral Trends

2. Consumption Forecasts2. Consumption ForecastsConsumer Behavioral Trends

Page 32: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Retail market is estimated at approximately US$ 250 billion (2005) , is already one of the ten largest retail markets in the world. A.T. Kearney’s Global Retail Development Index 2005 suggests that the Indian retail market has the largest growth potential of worldwide retail markets. The study forecasts an annual growth in turnover of around 10% in the next few years. Such growth trends present immense opportunities in the retail real estate segment.

12 million retail stores resulting in the highest number of per capita retail outlets in the world

Organized retail currently accounts for only 2-3% of the retail market in India (compared to up to 17% in China), but the sector is undergoing structural change, with leading domestic retailers such as Pantaloon, Shopper Stops,Westside and Big Bazaar going through rapid growth, format migration and consolidation. Retail consultancy KSA Technopak forecast that the share of organized retail will rise to 10-12% by 2010. This represents huge opportunity for prospective new players.

Contribution from Organized Retail

Years taken growing from <5% to current market share

Over 10000.4%

501-10001.0%

251-5005.7%

Upto 25092.9%

The adjoining chart shows the number of years taken by organized retail in some of the developing economies to grow from < 5% to the current market share. The economies have taken anywhere between 8 – 15 years to reach the current levels.

More than 90% of the outlets in India are less than 250 sq ft

Percentage of Outlets by Square feet

Source: Chain Store Age, KSA Technopak, CLSA

Overview of the Retail Market in India.

Source: HSBC Jumbo Retailing, May 2005

Page 33: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

35% of the population under 14 years

Median age of population is just 24 years

More than 60% of the population would be in the working age (15-60) till 2050

Shifting Age Profiles

Source : Business World, Marketing White Book – 2003 & 2005

35.5% 32.6% 29.6% 27.1%

58.2% 60.4%62.5% 64.0%

6.3% 7.0% 7.9% 8.9%

Y2001 Y2006F Y2011F Y2016F

0- 14 yrs

60 & above

15-59 yrs

Demographics

Page 34: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

1. Rising per capita GDP since 1997Per Capita GDP in US $ (at constant prices) growth has been particularly high at 12.7 % p.a. during the period 2002-2004 at back of a robust and booming economy.

NSSO’s survey indicates that people living below the poverty line declined during the period 1997-78 and 1999-2000 from 51% to 26% respectively (from 329 m to 260 m in absolute terms)

Literacy Rate

1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

2000-01

Male 27% 40% 46% 56% 64% 76%

Female 9% 15% 22% 30% 39% 54%

Total 18% 28% 34% 44% 52% 65%

2. Increased literacy among massesEducation cess of 2% is being charged on all direct and indirect Central taxes. The proceeds of the cess are channeled into the “Prathmik Shiksha Kosh” maintained by the Ministry of HRD & are available for basic education and Mid Day Meal Scheme. Higher education system in India is very robust and one of the largest in the world with:

259 Institutions 10,750 Colleges 8 million Students 4,00,000 TeachersImproved Literacy Rate

Source: Planning Commission, Ministry of Health and Welfare

Improving socio economic profile

Page 35: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Life Expectancy 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Male 33 42 46 51 59 64

Female 32 41 45 50 59 67

Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 births)

146 110 80 63

3. HealthcareThe expenditure on healthcare was around 5.1% of total government expenditure in 2005-06

Diseases like malaria, leprosy and polio have been tackled effectively and their incidence is now minimal

Source: Planning Commission, Ministry of Health and Welfare

Life Expectancy has gone up indicating better welfare

Improving socio economic profile… (2)

Page 36: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Consumption Forecasts

Page 37: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Demographic Changes Kids become more demanding

Willingness to experiment

Changing Consumer Behavior

Lifestyle branding

Increase in no. of working women More Nuclear families

Page 38: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Note: The above categories account for 80% of consumer spending

In View Of The Rapidly Expanding Spend Categories…

1. Food and Grocery2. Clothing3. Footwear4. Consumer durables 5. Home linen6. Movies and theatre7. Eating out

19911. Food and Grocery2. Clothing3. Footwear4. Consumer durables 5. Expenditure on DVDs and VCDs6. Home linen7. Home accessories 8. Accessories9. Gifts10. Take-away/ Pre cooked / RTE meals11. Movies and theatre12. Eating out13. Entertainment parks14. Mobile phones and service15. Household help16. Travel packages 17. Club membership18. Computer Peripheral & Internet

Usage

20051. Food and Grocery2. Clothing3. Footwear4. Consumer durables 5. Expenditure on DVDs and VCDs6. Home linen7. Home accessories 8. Accessories9. Gifts10. Take-away/ Pre cooked / RTE meals11. Movies and theatre12. Eating out13. Entertainment parks14. Mobile phones and service15. Household help16. Travel packages 17. Club membership18. Computer Peripheral & Internet Usage19. ???20. ???21. ???22. ???

2012

Source : Technopak

Page 39: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Organized retailing is set to enter a high growth stage

Expected TrendsExpected Trends

With less than 300 fully operational malls in India, Indian Retail Sector by 2006-07 is expected to have 330 malls, shopping centres and multiplexes under construction. It is also estimated to open 35 hypermarkets, 325 large department stores, 1500 supermarkets and over 10000 new outlets.

Though, pan-India organized retail penetration is at 2.5%, there are several categories that have organized retail penetration of more than 10%. First among them is the footwear, which has a 22% organized retail penetration. Following the footwear is Apparels and clothing with a retail penetration of 12% and Books and Music with 9% penetration.

The government could further liberalise. The Real Estate sector would witness a major fillip with the opening up of FDI in retail

The total retail space in India is set to grow 181 % from 32 million sq ft as of August 2005 to 90 million sq ft by 2007, according to a report ‘Malls of India’ released by Images Multimedia at the India Retail Forum. The organised retail industry is growing at an average of 30 % per annum and by 2010 is expected to stand at $ 24 billion, around 10 % of the estimated size of the overall retail industry, the report said. It is also expected that at least two or three of the Indian players would have crossed the $1 billion mark by then.

Earlier RegimeEarlier Regime Future ExpectationsFuture ExpectationsPresent RegimePresent RegimeNo Foreign Investment allowed

100% FDI in single brand

FDI*RegimeFDI*Regime

* These rules are only pertaining to area limit. For details of FDI rules, refer to FDI slide in Real estate Overview Section

100 % automatic FDI in All retail formats

Rationalization in Custom Duties

Page 40: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

a. Retailers & Marketersa. Retailers & Marketers

3. Response of Stake Holders

Page 41: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Evolution of Indian RetailEnvironment

Exclusive Brand Outlets

Hyper/Super Markets

Department StoresShopping Malls

Shopping Experience/Efficiency

Modern Formats/ International

Weekly MarketsVillage Fairs

Melas

Source of Entertainment

Historic/Rural Reach

Convenience StoresMom and Pop/Kiranas

Neighborhood Stores/Convenience

Traditional/Pervasive Reach

PDS OutletsKhadi StoresCooperatives

Availability/ Low Costs / Distribution

Government Supported

Page 42: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

From “Street Smart” Locations & Bazaars…

Retailers Response

Page 43: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

To well attended “High Streets”

Retailers’ Response

Page 44: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

To well attended “High Streets”

Retailers’ Response

Page 45: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Retailers Response cont…

Page 46: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Retailers Response cont…

Page 47: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

3. Response of‘Stake Holders’

b. Real Estateb. Real Estate

Page 48: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Real Estate Overview

FORWARD LINKAGES

BACKWARD LINKAGES

Size and Growth: The size of the Indian real estate industry is estimated to be at approx. US$ 14 billion, with housing, construction and real estate services growing at a CAGR of 14.6% during the period 1993-94 to 2005-06. High Contribution to GDP: Real estate forms one of the key components of economy and the contribution of real estate services, housing and construction sector to the economy is ~14% (2004-05).

Multiplier Effect: Established significant linkages with other sectors and an estimated 250 associated industries apart from the considerable multiplier effect it has on the economy as a whole.

Importance for Indian Economy: Survey by ICRA highlights that Construction ranks third amongst 14 major industries in terms of direct, indirect & induced effect on all sectors of the economy.

Real Estate Hospitality

Commercial

Residential

Retail

Warehouses/ logistics

Office Space

IT/ ITES

Others

REAL ESTATE/REAL ESTATE/CONSTRUCTIONCONSTRUCTION

Steel

Paints/ Chemicals

Heavy Engineering Equipments

Brick/ Tiles

Electronics(Equipments, Raw Materials –Copper & Aluminum)

CementCore Industries

Transportation/ Logistics

Service Labour

Direct LabourServices

Financial Services

Page 49: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Overview of Mall Development in India

Modern malls made their entry into India in the late 1990s, with the establishment of Crossroads in Mumbai and Ansals Plaza in Delhi. By early 2001, several mall projects were announced.

The first targets were the major metros like Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Chennai, Bangalore and Kolkata.

The growth in the retailing sector was focused on Major Metro cities only, the retailer focus has gradually broadened to include cities such as Nagpur, Indore, Jaipur, Chandigarh, Lucknow and Kochi.

Key drivers of mall activity remain apparels and the food and beverages (F&B) sectors.

On the basis of announced projects by year 2007, the North zone will account for 39 per cent share of the total mall space in India followed by the West zone accounting for 33 per cent share, the South zone with 18 per cent share and the remaining 10 per cent

While NCR will remain the hub of all mall activity in India over the next couple years, cornering approximately 35 per cent share of total mall space, the share of Mumbai is likely to get reduced, mainly on account of shortage of available space to expand further.

In the southern region, Bangalore followed by Hyderabad and Chennai will have the maximum mall space. By 2007, Bangalore will have approximately 12 per cent of the total mall space in the country.

The viability of setting up mall in particular location can only be assessed through a detailed study of each location.

North Zone, 39%

South Zone, 18%

East Zone, 10%

West Zone, 33%

Distribution of retail space - 2007

Source: Images Retail, Knight Frank

Page 50: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Total No. of Malls proposed in India* : 558

Total B/U area of Malls in India* : 123 Mn

*Note: The number of Malls and B/U area above stated are from 11 states only

INDIAState-wise Malls

NCR, 115 Malls 19.0 Mn

Maharashtra,

251 Malls 54.35 Mn

Punjab, 33 Malls 11.45 Mn

Rajasthan,5 Malls 1.20 Mn

Gujarat, 24 Malls 7.10 Mn

Madhya Pradesh, Malls, 4.45 Mn

Karnataka, 23 Malls,

6.90 Mn

AP, 26 Malls 4.73 Mn

Tamilnadu, 23 Malls 3.34 Mn

W. Bengal, 25 Malls 5.80

Mn

Kerala, 25 Malls 4.47 Mn

Page 51: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Total No. of Malls proposed in India* : 558

Total B/U area of Malls in India* : 123 Mn

*Note: The number of Malls and B/U area above stated are from 11 states only

INDIACity-wise Malls

Gr.Mumbai (104) 20.74 Mn sft

Thane (22) 6.36 Mn sft

Kalyan (3) 0.85 Mn

sft

Pune (68) 13.93 Mn sft

Navi Mumbai (18) 5.21 Mn sft

Nasik (3) 0.82 Mn

sft

Aurangabad (10) 1.71 Mn sft

Nagpur (5) 1.03 Mn

sft

B’lore (15) 6.03 Mn

sft

Mysore (8) 0.86 Mn

sftCalicut (10) 1.29 Mn sft

Kochin (15) 3.18 Mn

sft

Chennai (23) 3.34 Mn sft

Hyderabad (18) 3.33 Mn sft

Secunderabad (4) 0.75 Mn sft

Vijayawada (4) 0.67 Mn sft

Ahmedabad (8) 2.69 Mn sft

Vadodara (9) 2.62 Mn sft

Surat (6) 1.66 Mn sft

Rajkot (1) 0.12 Mn sft Bhopal (1)

1.0 Mn sft

Indore (6) 2.68 Mn

sft

Jaipur (2) 0.2 Mn sft

Udaipur (2) 1.0 Mn sft

Jodhpur (1) 0.15 Mn

sft

Kolkotta (25) 5.78 Mn sft`

New Delhi (49) 10 Mn sft

Noida (14) 4.9 Mn

sftGurgaon (28) 5.3 Mn sft

Ghaziabad (12) 2.30 Mn sft

Faridabad (12) 2.40 Mn sft

`

Amritsar (5) 1.35 Mn

sftLudhiana (13) 5.25 Mn sft

Jalandhar (5) 1.04 Mn sft

Chandigarh/Mohali (8) 3.6 Mn sft

Page 52: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Response - Real Estate

Page 53: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Response of Stake holders

c. Financial Institutions

Page 54: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Indicative List of Funds ( Based on India Plans Announced )

Fund Corpus ( USD mn ) Target Segments

Oak Investment partners 5800 Retail start ups

Blackstone Group 1000 Commercial and Residential

Carlyle 500-750 Commercial and Residential

GE-Ascendas Fund 500 IT Parks

Trikona Capital Group's Trinity Capital Fund 450 Real Estate & Infrastructure

Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Realty Fund 502 Equity-linked instruments of real estate companies

Och Ziff 400 Residential Property Development

ICICI Ventures (India Advantage Fund III) 300 Office, Residential & Retail Property Development

Santa Fe 300 Infrastructure and housing development

Rreef/DB Real Estate, a unit of Deutsche Bank AG 300 Housing

JM Morgan Stanley 300 Tier I, II and III city development

Walton Street 300 Residential Property Development

Kotak Mahindra Realty Fund 300 Retail, Hotels, Hospitals

American International Group 250 -300 Residential Townships

Horizon International Fund (Pantaloons) 263 Areas of more than 50,000 sq ft

Ascendas IT Park Fund 230 IT Parks

Siachen fund ( Equity Fund ) 100 Luxury Apartment Development

Page 55: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Response of Stake Holders

d. Government

Page 56: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Government’s response

Central Statistical Organisation

CSO

Setting up Regulatory & Information Dissemination Framework… enabling growth

Page 57: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

1971 : 20%

1981 : 23%

1991 : 26%

2001 : 28%

2011 : 41%

Urban

Rural

Percentage of Urban Population in India

1971 : 20%

1981 : 23%

1991 : 26%

2001 : 28%

2011 : 41%

Urban

Rural

Percentage of Urban Population in India

India-Rate of Urbanization (1971-2011)Source : Census of India

Improving urbanization levels…

1981 1991 2001

Population growth (decennial)

24.7% 23.8% 21.3%

Urban population (% to total)

23.3% 25.7% 33.4%

% of urban population in Class I cities

60.4% 65.2% 73.7%

Urban population has grown by 31% against 18% in rural areas for the period 1991 – 2001

According to Census of India 2001 estimates, 41% of the total population of India will be living in urban

areas by 2011. The number of cities with one million plus population is also expected to double from

35 in 2001 to 70 cities by 2025

13 cities have population in excess of 2 million

35% of Indian population live in urban centres, the target market for organized retail

Top 10 centres account for 88% of the retail spending in India against 100% 5 years back

Page 58: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

and infrastructure growing…

Ports

Road Development Plan – Vision 2021 of Indian Road Congress, estimates road development of around 242,000 Kms by 2011 with an estimated investment of 60 bn USD

Roads & Highways Sector

Plans to develop 100% of National Highways, 50% of State Highways and around 20% of Major District Roads by 2011

Estimated investment in NHDP – Rs 540 Bn, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yogana – Rs 600 bn, State Highways and non-NHDP - Balance

Aviation Industry

Huge traffic growth demands strong airport infrastructure. Worldwide air traffic will grow at an annualized rate of 5% that is double every 14 years. India air traffic to grow faster than the average on the back of strong GDP growth

Proposed Investment = Rs 136 Bn

Privatization of ports has gathered momentum. The sector is likely to attract 100-120 bn

over the next couple of years

Sagarmala Maritime project – Planned outlay of Rs 1090 bn

Proposed outlay for 10 th plan Rs 163 bn

Page 59: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Indian Rail network of 63000 km is the world’s second largest under a single management. Network growth has been slow

Railways

Proposed investment (modernization + National Rail Vikas Yojana) = Rs 320 bn

Total track renewal targeted to be achieved by the end of tenth five year plan is 34,990 km

Indian Railways have created a Rs. 170 bn non-lapsable Special Railway Safety Fund (SRSF), to be invested over the next five years. Rs. 120 bn comes from a budgetary grant Rs. 50 bn through a surcharge on rail fares

India has a total installed power generation capacity 105000 MW. The growth in generation capacity has lagged behind demand for power.

Power

The power sector is poised for fresh investments of about Rs 1717 bn over the next 6-7 years.

Annual Power deficit of 7.3% observed in previous years

The government’s programme “ Power for All by 2012” aims to close this gap

Page 60: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

4. SWOT Analysis4. SWOT Analysis

Page 61: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

SWOT – Real Estate Industry Strengths

Development primarily based on strong realistic demand with limited speculative activity

Among the highest yield in the region and globally

Robust and well developed financial market and system that can tap into RE anytime

Demonstrated political ‘will’ to take RE to the future Relaxation of FDI Repeal of laws

Weaknesses Certain archaic laws continue to exist

ULCRA still to be repealed by certain states, unclear titles, high property tax & stamp duties which differ across states

High transaction cost and need for greater transparency

Still largely an unorganized market with dominance of independent local level developers

Opportunities Has strong demand drivers going forward –

IT-ITES, tourism, increasing consumerism, industrial manufacturing outsourcing etc.

Institutional participation is just opening up REIT/REMF Overseas investors are sold on the ‘India’

story and India “RE story” – eg. Ishaan,Hirco etc in overseas markets

Threats The fast pace of development may not be

sustainable for a long term period Pace of infrastructure not consistent with

real estate development pace which may lead to a bottleneck going forward

Yields not keeping pace with the increase in capital values

Page 62: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Key Challenges…

Large geographicArea

InfrastructureConstraints

Distribution costs

Fragmented Market

Lack of Distribution networks

Lack of distributionhub

Source: KPMG Consumer Markets Survey

(% respondents who chose)

59

59

46

44

42

32

Key challenges in the Indian retail market

Page 63: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Though India’s improvement from low transparency to semi-transparency is worthwhile mentioning, It’s a long way before there is availability of market information, improving general accounting and reporting processes, and substantial improvement among market participants, legal process that relate to contract enforcement and legal relief.

Transparency International - Asia

Tier 1 – Highly Transparent

Tier 2 – Transparent

Tier 3 – Semi Transparent

Tier 4 – Low Transparency

Tier 5 - Opaque

AustraliaNew ZealandHong KongSingapore

MalaysiaJapan

TaiwanSouth KoreaThe PhilippinesThailandIndia

The People’s Republic of ChinaMacuaIndonesia

Vietnam

AustraliaNew Zealand

Hong KongSingapore

JapanTaiwanSouth KoreaThe PhilippinesThailand

The People’s Republic of ChinaIndiaIndonesia

Vietnam

Source: JLL Global Real Estate Transparency

Real EstateTransparency Index

2006 2004

Page 64: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

A score of 10 indicates a perception of no corruption, while 0 means corruption is seen as rampant.

Bribe Payers Index 2006

Source: Transparency International

Page 65: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, LaSalle Investment Management

Denotes a country moved up one tier from 2004

Denotes a slight improvement in transparency

Denotes a moderate improvement in transparency

Denotes a significant improvement in transparency

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

29

24

25

28

30

27

34

Na

31

32

38

35

37

Na

36

40

41

Mexico

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Israel

Taiwan

South Korea

Slovakia

Chile

Greece

*Russia

Philippines

*Brazil

*Slovenia

Thailand

Argentina

*India

2.51

2.69

2.76

2.76

2.86

2.86

2.88

2.99

3.11

3.13

3.22

3.30

3.31

3.35

3.40

3.41

3.46

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

na

3

3

4

3

4

na

3

4

4

na

no change

no change

na

06 04 CountryScore 1-5

0604

Tier06

TierTransparency

change

Global Real Estate Transparency Index - 2006

Page 66: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

5. Changing Urban Landscape

Case Study – Pune, Maharashtra

Page 67: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

India Map

Map Source: www.mapsofindia.com

Pune Map

Pune Location - Map

Maharashtra Map

Page 68: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

• Pune is situated near the Western margin of the Deccan Plateau. It lies on the leeward side of the Sahyadri ranges and Western Ghats, at the confluence of Mula and Mutha rivers. Two more rivers, Pavana and Indrayani traverse the Northwestern outskirts of the urban area

• Altitude: 560 m Above Mean Sea Level. • Latitude: 18°32' North• Longitude: 72° 51' East • Area: 430 km²

• Climate

Winter Temperature: 15 to 25 °C

Summer Temperature: 35 to 39°C

Rainfall (mid-June to mid-September): 722 mm

Lowest Recorded Temperature: 1.3 °C

Highest Recorded Temperature: 43.3 °C

Geography – Pune - Maharashtra

Page 69: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Early 8th Century AD Developments (Kasbe Pune)

Khadki Cantonment during 1860

Pune Cantonment

Formation of Pune Municipal Corporation in 1950

Areas developed such as Koregaon Park etc.

Fringe Developments along Kothrude, Nagar road, Warje, Karve Road, Pimpri chichwad and Aundh

City Urbanscape Growth - Pune - Maharashtra

Page 70: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Urban Fabric-Past - Pune - Maharashtra

Page 71: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Urban Fabric-Present – Pune - Maharashtra

Page 72: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

6. Infliction points6. Infliction points

Page 73: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Inflection Points

Favorable long-term demographics

Source: Bric ReportSource: DB research

Ag

e

200 100 0 100 200 (millions)

55+54-5435-4425-3415-245-140-14

2001 2013

Population

Ag

e

200 100 0 100 200 (millions)

55+54-5435-4425-3415-245-140-14

2001 2013

Population

Page 74: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Consumption Forecasts

Page 75: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Significant job creation in ITES sector

Country 2003 2004

Australia 1,35,000 1,46,000

India 96,000 1,58,000

China 38,000 54,000

Philippines 20,000 40,000

New Zealand

12,000 13,500

Thailand 11,000 13,000

Singapore 10,000 10,100

Number of Seats in call centersPercentage Share in GDP

Source: RBI, DB Research

Source: Industry Interaction

Growth of Services Sector…

Page 76: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

From To

Infliction Points

Page 77: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

While the mystery continues to unfold….

Page 78: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

there we are

at the wonder once again

Page 79: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

One need not look hard enough

to realize it’s all being made here

right now, as I speak

Page 80: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

It’s time to be part of that wonderful unfoldment

Page 81: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Welcome to India!Welcome to India!

Page 82: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Inorbit Malad•Operational since 2003•BUA=510,000 SFT/ Carpet=360,000 SFT

Inorbit Vashi•Trading Date 15th March 2008•BUA=550,000 SFT/ Carpet=350,000 SFT

Inorbit Cyberabad•Trading Date 15th November 2008•BUA=690,000 SFT/ Carpet=470,000 SFT

Inorbit Village Pocharam•Trading Date 1st March 2008•BUA=360,000 SFT/ Carpet=320,000 SFT

Inorbit Lifestyle Vijaywada•Trading Date 1st December 2008•BUA=430,000 SFT/ Carpet=300,000 SFT

Inorbit Village Verna-Goa•Trading Date 1st July 2009•BUA=500,000 SFT/ Carpet=400,000 SFT

Inorbit Pune•Trading Date 1st August 2009•BUA=510,000 SFT/ Carpet=310,000 SFT

Inorbit Chennai•Trading Date 1st Feb 2010•Under planning

Inorbit Makarpura, Baroda•Trading Date 15th March 2010•BUA=700,000 SFT/ Carpet=500,000 SFT

Inorbit Whitefield, Bangalore•Trading Date 15th July 2010•BUA=280,000 SFT/ Carpet=190,000 SFT

Inorbit Indore•Trading Date 1st March 2010•BUA=450,000 SFT/ Carpet=280,000 SFT

Inorbit Lifestyle,Vadodara •Trading Date 1st Sept ember- 2009•BUA=400,000 SFT/ Carpet=300,000 SFT

Inorbit•Trading Date 2011•Koba-Ahmedabad,•Kadamba-Goa,and Airoli

Inorbit’s Future Development

Plan and Phasing

Page 83: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

Thank you

[email protected]

[email protected]

Manoj Motta

Page 84: “Rediscovering India ” Global Tracks Manoj Motta – Session Chairman AVP – Inorbit Malls (India) May 22 nd 2007 - Las Vegas

India would have 160 million families in the consuming class Target market for organized retail

Historic trend in household income levels have been positiveNegative growth in ‘destitutes’ Consuming class has grown by 14%Super Rich’ segment has doubled

Disposable Income has grown at 11%The Classes 1994 - 95 1999 - 00 2005 - 06The Rich(Above Rs 215,000) 1 million 3 million 6 million

households households households

Consuming(Rs 45000-215,000) 29 million

households

Climbers(Rs 22,000-45,000)

48 millionhouseholds

Aspirants(Rs 16000-22000) 48 million 32 million 33 million

households households households

Destitutes(Less than 16,000)

35 million 24 million 17 million households households households

55 million households

75 million households

66 million households

78 million households

Source: The Marketing White Book, Business World – 2003, 2005

Source: National Income Statistics – October 2004

Real Estate Demand Drivers – Large and Growing Consumer Class

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

Pers

onal

Dis

posa

ble

Inco

me

(US$

bn.

)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Y-o-

Y gr

owth

(%)

1.

2.