ReCAP Status Review of the Updated Rural Access … › Library › Vincent-CDS-2018-ReCAP...ReCAP RAI Status Review - SuM4All RAWG 23 May 2018 Leipzig 16 17 Proposed methodology:

StephenVincent,PrincipalInvestigator

ReCAPStatusReviewoftheUpdatedRuralAccessIndex(RAI)

EstablishmentoftheRAIin2005/2006

ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig 2

2006

ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig

THE WORLD BANK GROUP WASHINGTON, D.C.

Rural Access Index: A Key Development Indicator

Peter Roberts Shyam KC Cordula Rastogi

TRANSPORT SECTOR BOARD

TRANSPORT PAPERS TP-10

MARCH 2006

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DefinitionoftheRAI

‘RuralAccessIndex’isthepercentageofruralpeoplewholivewithin2km(typicallyequivalenttoawalkof20minutes)ofanall-seasonroadasaproportionofthetotalruralpopulation.


NotebyPeterRobertsDatedSeptember2005

4

DefinitionoftheRAI(continued)

An“all-season-road”isaroadthatismotorableallyearroundbytheprevailingmeansofruraltransport*…Predictableinterruptionsofshortdurationduringinclementweather(egheavyrainfall)areaccepted...*In2005assumedtobe‘apick-uporatruckwhichdoes

nothavefour-wheel-drive’. ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig


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TheRuralAccessIndex(RAI)


20to30minuteswal

k

=approx2km

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MeasurementofRAITwomainapproaches:

(a) Householdsurveysthatincludeinformationaboutaccesstotransport.

(b) Mapdatatodeterminehowmanypeoplelivewithinthespecifiedcatchmentsoftheroadnetwork.



7

RequirementforRAIAdoptedfortheResultsMeasurementSystem(RMS)ofIDA-14.“…TheIndexwasdevelopedinresponsetotheconsensusledbyborrowersthatitidentifiesanimportantpriorityforpovertyreductionstrategiesinviewoftheestablishedlinksbetweenphysicalisolationandpoverty...”


2006TransportPaper

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“2006”RAIdata

64countries-32IDAand32non-IDA

26countriesbasedon5typesofhouseholdsurveys10countriesbasedonGISanalysis22countriesestimatedusingmodellingtechniques*

*includingUgandaandZambia


InstitutionalisationoftheRAI2006-Intendedtoincludeasuitablequestioninregularhouseholdsurveys(egevery3years)

Straightforwardprocessingofsurveydata(“…onedayofexperiencedstatisticalinput…”)

àWhydidn’tthishappen?


2016-SDGIndicator9.1.1


SDGTarget9.1Developquality,reliable,sustainableandresilientinfrastructure,includingregionalandtrans-borderinfrastructure,tosupporteconomicdevelopmentandhumanwell-being,withafocusonaffordableandequitableaccessforall.

SDGIndicator9.1.1Proportionoftheruralpopulationwholivewithin2kmofanall-seasonroad.

WorldBankisthe“custodian”ofSDGIndicator9.1.1


UNInter-agencyandExpertGrouponSDGIndicators(IAEG-SDGs)

§  InternationallyrepresentativegroupwithmembersfromNationalStatisticalOffices(NSOs).

§  Recommendedtheinitial2016listofSDGindicators.

§  RecommendsstatusofeachIndicator(TierI,IIorIII).

§  IsreviewingthelistofIndicatorsandin2020willrecommendanyadditions,deletions,refinementsoradjustmentsneeded(reviewedagainin2025).


SDGIndicator“Tier”system(Note:Abbreviated)

TierI: Regularlyproducedforatleast50%ofcountries.

TierII:Conceptuallyclear,establishedmethodology,butnotregularlyproduced.

TierIII:Nointernationallyestablishedmethodologyorstandards,buttheyarebeingdeveloped.


CurrentratingofSDGIndicator9.1.1,theRAI

14

2016–WorldBank

NewtechnologiestomeasuretheRAI


2015/2016UKAidfunding,throughReCAP,toupdatemethodofmeasuringtheRAIPilotmeasurementsin8ReCAPcountriesSupportmovingSDGIndicator9.1.1toTierII/TierI


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Proposedmethodology:Conceptuallythesame,butmeasureddifferentlyusingnewdataandtechnologies

•  Globaldefinition:–  Shareoftheruralpopulationwholivewithin2kmofan“all-season”≈“goodorfair”road

•  Flexibility,dependingon:– Whatdatadowehaveinournormaloperations?– Whatdatacanweupdateregularly,asweimplementroadworks?

•  Otherissues:–  Proximitytoroadnetworkormarketetc.?–  2kmor5kmor25minutes?– Whatroads?

•  Seethemethodologyreport


Sustainability

Consistency

Simplicity

Operational relevance

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/367391472117815229/Measuring-rural-access-using-new-technologies

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Takingadvantageofavailable(andsustainable)spatialdata,RAIiscalculatedbyspatialsoftware


•  Wheredopeoplelive?–  Globalpopulationdataareavailable

•  Wheredoestheroadnetworkexist?–  Georeferencedroadnetwork(government-owned,opendata)

•  Inwhatcondition?–  Dataexist,thoughoftenfragmented–  Relevantissues:Howtomaintainroadassetmanagementsystem?

•  Overlappingtheabove,theRAIisestimatedbyspatialsoftware

Comparisonof2006and2016results


RAI2006 RAI2016

Comparisonof2006and2016results


RAI2006 RAI2016 Approximatemodellingmethods

Issomeoftheruralroadnetworkmissing?

Actually17%in2006report-Extensiveruralroadimprovementssince

DetailedGIS

mappingofruralroads

All-seasonnetworkdifficulttodefineinmountainareas

Isthedefinitionoftheboundarybetweenurbanandruralareasconsistentbetweencountries?

RuralroadsinTanzaniaworsethanin2006?

Notin2006report

2018–RAIStatusReview


ReCAPRAIStatusReview§  ConcernsraisedbyReCAPmembercountries;technicaldifferencesbetweennewmethodologyandoriginalmethodology,anddifferencesinresults.

§  RequirementidentifiedforstatusreviewbyReCAPtodetermineappropriatewayforward–3TaskGroups:

TG1:AstatusreviewandwayforwardrecommendationTG2:ConsolidationandRevisionTG3:ApplicationinReCAPcountries


ReCAPRAIStatusReview-method§  Literaturereview&consultationwithspecialists

§  MeetingsatWorldBank

§  ConsultationswithAfDB,ADB,IDB

§  CountryvisitsEthiopia,Uganda,Nepal,Bangladesh(roadsauthorities/departments&statisticaloffices)

§  WiderconsultationthroughReCAPmailinglist


DiscussionsatWorldBank§  Backgroundtothedevelopmentof2016RAImeasurements.Measurementsformorecountrieshavenowbeenmade.

§  SDGIndicatordefinitionscanonlybechangedin2020or2025.Hence,leaveIndicator9.1.1unchanged;bettertoaddanadditional,new,SDGIndicatoriftheRAIdoesnottrulyreflectruralaccessissues.

§  AseparateinitiativeatWorldBankhasestimatedtheRAIinover100countriesusingopendatasources.


RegionaldevelopmentbanksAfricanDevelopmentBank

AsianDevelopmentBank

Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank

§  RAIusedasaprojectlevelimpactindicatoron26projects.

§  ProjectsincludestrengtheningthecapacityoftheNSOtomeasuretheRAI.

§  Ruralprojectsviewedfromperspectiveofsupportingagriculturalproduction.

§  StatisticspriorityisonTierIandIISDGIndicators.

§  LackofsuitabledatatomeasureRAI.§  Measureimprovementsinaccessto

healthcentres,schoolsetcinstead.


Countryvisits-AfricaEthiopiaUganda

§  Householdsurveymethodsusedfor10yearstomonitorprogresswithruralroadsprogramme.

§  GISmethodsbeingusedtomeasureaveragewalkingtimetoaroad.

§  RAImeasurementsusedtomeasureimpactofruralroadsprogramme

§  RAIisnotused.§  Ruralroadmappingincomplete.§  BureauofStatisticssurveyevery4yearsincludes

assessmentofdistancetoroad,whetherroadisopenallyearround,anddistancetopublictransport.


Countryvisits-AsiaNepal

Bangladesh

§  Recentlychangeto753urbanandruralmunicipalities.Workingtoachieveroadaccesstoeverymunicipality–Localplans&GISdata.

§  Someroadsclosedintherainyseason,buthealthcentres&schoolsbeyondclosures,andcropsmovedwhenroadsre-opened.

§  ComprehensiveGISofallruralroads.§  SpreadsheetmethodofcalculatingRAI.§  Highlevelofruralaccess(RAI=84%)§  Onlypavedroadsareall-seasonReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig 27

NationalStatisticalOffices§  TheNationalStatisticalOffices(NSOs)werevisitedaspartofallfourcountryvisits.

§  AllNSOswerehelpful.SomealreadyhadabrieftocoordinatethemeasurementofSDGIndicators.

§  NotethattheSDGIndicatorsareaboutstatistics,notengineering!

§  SeveralcountrieshadcarriedoutrecenthouseholdsurveyswhichcouldhaveincludedanRAIquestion.


Widerconsultation§  TheRAIisnotaverygoodindicator,butitisbetterthanno

indicatoratall.

§  Traveltimewalkingtoaroadisabettermeasurethandistance,differenttypesofterrainhaveamajoreffect.

§  Consideranintegratedapproachtoruraltransport,combiningnon-motorisedandintermediatetransportalongtrailsandpathswithmotorisedtransportusingruralroads.

§  Whenroadsdeterioratesothatbusservicescannotoperate,motorcyclesandthree-wheelersprovideanalternative.

§  Alsoconsiderthereliabilityofthetransportservicesavailable,forexampletravelopportunities/day.


Financingofinfrastructure&maintenance§  WhatlevelofRAIcan

beachievedwithinrealisticinfrastructurespending?

§  WhatlevelofRAIcanbesustainedbyfutureroadmaintenancefinance?

§  See2008AICDanalysis&recentMyanmarstudy.

§  MaximumachievableRAIiscountryspecific.ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig

INVESTING IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

3

Urban connectivity. Sub-SaharanAfrica’s cities have strikinglyunderdeveloped urban networks,reaching only about 128 meters of roadper thousand residents compared to700 meters per thousand in the low-income countries of the developingworld. Urban connectivity is based onthe concept of ready access to a one-lane paved road capable of supportingyear-round access by a bus service orequivalent motorized vehicle, such asan ambulance or a fire engine.

Knowing the population and areaof each of about 140 cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we were able to estimate the paved road length that would be necessary to ensure that noresident had to walk more than a specified distance to a paved road that could sustain a bus route, andachieve a minimum length of paved road per urban resident. We added to that distance a grid of roads of ahigher standard that would serve as radial and principal roads. In doing so, we took into account projectedgrowth in the urban population up to the year 2015.

Different levels of ambition

For each of these dimensions of connectivity, two levels of ambition are considered.

Base (or ideal) scenario. The base scenario assumes that all regional and national connectivitystandards will be met using paved roads, of at least 2-lanes for regional and at least 1-lane for nationalconnectivity. The RAI will be 75 percent, achieved through the use of single-surface-treatment roads.Urban connectivity aims for a target of 500 meters walking distance to an all-season road, met usingasphalt roads and at least 300m of paved road per 1,000 urban residents.

Pragmatic scenario. In recognition that the base scenario may prove to be prohibitively costly forsome countries, an alternative pragmatic scenario was also considered. The pragmatic scenario aims tomeet a similar degree of regional and national connectivity at a lower cost, essentially by reducing thestandards of infrastructure (for example, by substituting a single-surface-treatment road for an asphaltroad) and by lowering the target condition (for example, maintaining infrastructure to at least faircondition rather than to good condition). The pragmatic scenario also reduces the level of ambition forrural and urban connectivity. The RAI target drops from 75 percent to 50 percent, and it may be met usingall-weather gravel roads rather than single-surface-treatment roads. The urban accessibility target dropsfrom 500 meters to 1,000 meters maximum walking distance to an all-season paved road capable ofsupporting a bus service, and at least 150 meters of paved road per 1,000 urban residents. Both thesecriteria would be met using an all weather gravel road rather than a paved road.

Figure A Length of network needed to reach different levels of theRural Accessibility Index

R2 = 0.97

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

Thousands of kilometers of all season road needed

Rur

al A

cces

sibi

lity

Inde

xRA

I

Thousandkmof“all-season”road

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EffectofuseofmotorcyclesonRAI§  Extensiveuseofmotorcyclesinsomecountries.

§  Motorcyclescanaccessareasthatlargervehiclescannot.

§  RecentLiberiastudyhighlightsextensiveuseofmotorcyclesforaccesstohealthcare,educationetc.

àAllowthemeasurementofanadditional,extra,‘countryRAI’value,forexamplethedifferencethatconsideringmotorcycleswouldmake.


MovingfromSDGIndicatorTierIIItoTierII

§  Needawelldefinedandwidelyaccepted(egbyregionaldevelopmentbanks)methodology.

§  Needmeasurementsforasignificantnumberofcountries(20to40?),andaclearplanforbothmanymorecountrymeasurementsandhowallcountrymeasurementswillberepeatedinthefuture.

§  NeedtoinvolveNSOs(asrequiredbyIAEG-SDGs).


Alternativemethodsofmeasurement§  TheInternationalRoughnessIndex(IRI)ismeasuredbymanydifferentmethods.

§  Similarly,thereisonlyoneactualvalueoftheRuralAccessIndex(RAI)inacountry,howeveritismeasured.

§  ToachieveasignificantinternationalcoverageofRAImeasurementsasrapidlyaspossible,theRAImeasurementmethodologyshouldallowtheuseofalternativemeasurementmethods.


Accuracy§  Theaccuracyofeachdatasetneedstobeassessedandpublished.

§  Considertheaccuracyofeachdatasource,hencecalculateoveralllikelyaccuracy,andpossibleerror.

§  Whendifferentmethodsgivedifferentresults,theyaremeasuringthesamething(RAI),sotheaccuracyrangesshouldoverlapiftheassessmentsarecorrect.


Metho

dA-

Metho

dB

RAI

overlap

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ActualRAI

possibleerrorranges

Correctionfactors?§  Insomecases,theremaybeaknownsystematicerror,forexamplesomeruralroadsaremissing.

§  Whereaknownerrorexists,forexampletheruralroadnetworkisincomplete,estimateandapplyacorrectionfactor.


Stan

dardM

etho

d

RAI

35

MeasuredvalueofRAI

correctionfactorforknown

systematicerror

calculatedvalue

NationallyAppropriateActions?SuggestedindiscussionmeetingatADB:

§  Learnfromclimatechange’NationallyAppropriateMitigationActions’(NAMA).

§  Agreeruralaccessibilityactionsneededspecifictoacountry(egbasedonSuM4Allrecommendations?)

§  Agreeamethodofmonitoringprogresstowardsachievingtheseactions.

§  àMonitorprogress.CouldthisbeanSDGIndicator?


Recommendations


(1)RAIDatabase§  DevelopadatabaseofallUNcountries.

§  DetailsofwhenSDGIndicator9.1.1(theRAI)isexpectedtobemeasured,andtheagencyleadingthismeasurement.

§  IncludedetailsofexistingmeasurementsoftheRAI.


RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2

(2)RAIMeasurementMethodologyGuidelines

§  Allowalternativemethodsofmeasurement.

§  Accuracymustbeverified,preferablybyNSO.

§  InadditiontothestandardmeasurementoftheRAI,allowanadditionalcountryvaluetobecalculated,forexampleincludingmotorcycles.



OverviewofRAIMeasurementMethodology


CostDatasourcesTimescaleRepeatability

Statisticalmethod-Householdsurvey

Wholecountrymethod

-GISanalysis-Spreadsheetanalysis

VerificationbyNSO

ReviewandconsolidationbyWorldBank

Regionalsupportfromregionaldevelopmentbanks&

UNstatisticsspecialists

RAIMeasurementGuidelines

(3)RAIWebpage

§  AccesstoRAIDatabaseandGuidelines

§  Knowledgeexchange

§  Rolesoforganisationsandcontactpoints



§  Decideactionsneeded,financing,&dates

§  TargetNovember2018


(4)ScheduletomoveSDGIndicator9.1.1toTierII


(5)DevelopalternativeSDGIndicator(s)forruralaccess

§  Betterreflectcontemporaryruralaccessissues.§  Addressaccesstofacilitiesandprovisionoftransportservices.

§  WorkwithSuM4AllRAWG–for2020SDGreview§  Possiblealternativeapproachoffirstassessingthequalityofthenationalplanforruralaccess,andthenmeasuringprogresstowardsachievingit.



(6)Furtherresearch

§  Consultationwithadditionalorganisations.

§  ComparativestudiesbetweendifferentmethodsofmeasuringtheRAI.

§  Potentialuseofsmartphonedata.



ApplicationinReCAPCountries§  SupportmeasurementoftheRAIinselectedReCAPcountries.

§  RegionalcoordinationofRAImeasurementbyregionaldevelopmentbanks.

§  DeterminethemaximumsustainableleveloftheRAIthatcouldbeachievedineachcountry.



Discussion


Documents

ReCAP Status Review of the Updated Rural Access … › Library › Vincent-CDS-2018-ReCAP...ReCAP RAI Status Review - SuM4All RAWG 23 May 2018 Leipzig 16 17 Proposed methodology: