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© 2013 Client Confidential
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INTRODUCTION
The following list of definitions has been developed by Pyramid Research to help our clients better understand the data and market analysis presented in our services and reports. It represents an on-going process in which we continually assess and re-evaluate the industry, the technologies, the products, and the relationships between market sectors to develop a structure that best portrays the dynamics of the mobile communications marketplace. This process is one which has evolved at Pyramid over the past twenty years. It relies upon the on-going research and extensive knowledge base of our analysts, and the input of our clients: suppliers, operators, regulatory agencies, and the investment community. Our view of the mobile communications marketplace has been developed to provide a representative structure, organized in a way that is consistent with the industry and useful to our clients.
The market segmentation and definitions are not static. They evolve as new technologies are introduced, and reflect feedback from our clients. We are constantly attuned to shifts in the industry and to the focus of our clients to expand our market perspective, our definitions, and the data we include in our products. We encourage you to share your ideas with us. And we urge you to call and talk to us if any segmentation or definition is unclear.
General
The data presented in Pyramid's mobile forecasting databases are organized in eleven segments:
• Demographics• Penetration of Population• Subscriptions by Operator• Mobile Subscriptions by Type of Package• Churn• Subscriptions by Technology• Subscriptions by Segment• Mobile Data Users• Usage• Average Revenue per Subscription (ARPS)• Revenues
This organization provides a structure which groups together the data to give a concise view of the mobile revenue opportunities in a market or country: market size, drivers, enabling technologies, systematic revenue breakdown with annual opportunity in US dollars, and growth trends.
All databases include historical and forecast data for a ten-year period. Key data is collected and updated throughout the year by Pyramid's regional analysts.
Sources
Since 1986, Pyramid Research has compiled an extensive database on telecommunications markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Europe, North America and Latin America. The core components of this database include:
Regulatory• Interviews with top officials at regulatory agencies.• Statistical data published by governments and regulatory agencies.• Copies of telecom laws and amendments.• Copies of tariff schedules, interconnection regulations and universal service requirements.
Operators• Interviews with key officials in strategic planning, marketing, network planning and financial planning.• Extensive surveys conducted with operators to determine key network statistics, investment, technology rollout plans, subscribers by service, tariff plans and service offerings.• Internal statistics and bulletins published by operators.
Vendors• Interviews with key officials within vendors both at in-country offices and in company headquarters.
The Economist Intelligence Unit• Economic indicators.• Country reports on economic and political outlooks.• Regional business newsletters and industry trends.
Other• Occasionally, independent reputable secondary sources are used to validate our forecasts. Secondary sources include institutions such as the World Bank, the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the United Nations (UN).
1. DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic and economic data are provided to help clients establish a framework for each country and region included in the Pyramid mobile communications forecasts. Information such as population , nominal GDP, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and currency exchange rates are important indicators of market sophistication, current and projected demand, and opportunity. The Economist Intelligence Unit is the source of this economic and demographic data unless otherwise noted.
Population The mid-year population of the country. This number is reported in thousands. It is used to calculate penetration rates.
HouseholdsThe mid-year number of households in the country. This number is reported in thousands.
BusinessesIncludes registered business firms, non-business firms, institutions, schools and government. This number is reported in thousands (000s). Pyramid ordinarily acquires this data from national statistics agencies. In some instances, Pyramid employs additional data from national and international organizations and may employ some of its own analysis and international benchmarking to estimate values.
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices in US$m.
Real Growth per CapitaPercentage change in the country's nominal GDP per capita, after adjusting for consumer price inflation.
Nominal GDP per CapitaNominal GDP per capita is GDP in US$ divided by population. PPP Adjusted GDP per CapitaGDP per capita adjusted using the country's purchasing power parity index in US$.
Consumer Price InflationPercentage change in consumer price index (12-month average) over previous year.
Exchange rate (Local Currency/US$)Exchange Rates: Foreign currencies are converted to U.S. dollars using the average exchange rate for the year the data was reported.
2. PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Penetration is the measure of adoption of a telecommunications service in a country. It is calculated by dividing the total customer base by the population. It is generally used as a comparative measure of network development with other countries or to compare the different adoption rates of similar service offerings.
Main Line (synonymous with "Narrowband Subscriber Line")A subscriber line with a transmission speed less than or equal to 128 Kbps. Includes plain old telephone service (POTS) or publicly switched telephone network (PSTN) connections, basic rate interface (BRI) ISDN connections and low-speed fixed wireless connections.
Mobile SubscriptionsNumber of registered mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Prepaid Number of registered prepaid mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Postpaid Number of registered contract mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Mobile UsersThe number of active mobile service users at the end of the calendar year, as a percentage of the population. A mobile user is an individual with one or more active subscriptions. Pyramid Research bases its calculation on the number of active subscriptions (such as SIM cards) and the ratio of active subscriptions to people, as reported by service providers and national telecom authorities.
3. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY NETWORK OPERATOR
The number of registered subscriptions enrolled with each of the public network operators. Subscription data for network operators includes Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) and reseller subscriptions. MVNO and reseller subscriptions are also shown separately.
Where additional operators are expected to start offering services in the future, their market shares are estimated from the year of their expected launch. Unless the identity and the number of these new operators are known at the time of producing the forecast, they will be considered in aggregate form and noted as Other.
4. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
In recent years, prepaid has become the dominant subscription mode in many countries. This section breaks down the number of registered mobile accounts into two types: prepaid, which includes those subscriptions not subject to a monthly fee or a contract; and postpaid, which includes those subscriptions subject to a contractual agreement between the subscriber and the service provider.
5. CHURN
The annual churn rate represents the number of disconnected mobile accounts during a calendar year as a percentage of the total mobile accounts at the beginning of the same calendar year. In the case of prepaid accounts, different operators use different criteria to consider an account inactive. Pyramid uses the prevailing criteria in each particular country to calculate churn. In the case of postpaid accounts, an account is considered inactive once the contract is terminated by the network operator. Pyramid's churn rate includes both subscribers that abandon mobile service and subscribers that switch their service provider.
© 2013 Client Confidential
INTRODUCTION
The following list of definitions has been developed by Pyramid Research to help our clients better understand the data and market analysis presented in our services and reports. It represents an on-going process in which we continually assess and re-evaluate the industry, the technologies, the products, and the relationships between market sectors to develop a structure that best portrays the dynamics of the mobile communications marketplace. This process is one which has evolved at Pyramid over the past twenty years. It relies upon the on-going research and extensive knowledge base of our analysts, and the input of our clients: suppliers, operators, regulatory agencies, and the investment community. Our view of the mobile communications marketplace has been developed to provide a representative structure, organized in a way that is consistent with the industry and useful to our clients.
The market segmentation and definitions are not static. They evolve as new technologies are introduced, and reflect feedback from our clients. We are constantly attuned to shifts in the industry and to the focus of our clients to expand our market perspective, our definitions, and the data we include in our products. We encourage you to share your ideas with us. And we urge you to call and talk to us if any segmentation or definition is unclear.
General
The data presented in Pyramid's mobile forecasting databases are organized in eleven segments:
• Demographics• Penetration of Population• Subscriptions by Operator• Mobile Subscriptions by Type of Package• Churn• Subscriptions by Technology• Subscriptions by Segment• Mobile Data Users• Usage• Average Revenue per Subscription (ARPS)• Revenues
This organization provides a structure which groups together the data to give a concise view of the mobile revenue opportunities in a market or country: market size, drivers, enabling technologies, systematic revenue breakdown with annual opportunity in US dollars, and growth trends.
All databases include historical and forecast data for a ten-year period. Key data is collected and updated throughout the year by Pyramid's regional analysts.
Sources
Since 1986, Pyramid Research has compiled an extensive database on telecommunications markets in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, Europe, North America and Latin America. The core components of this database include:
Regulatory• Interviews with top officials at regulatory agencies.• Statistical data published by governments and regulatory agencies.• Copies of telecom laws and amendments.• Copies of tariff schedules, interconnection regulations and universal service requirements.
Operators• Interviews with key officials in strategic planning, marketing, network planning and financial planning.• Extensive surveys conducted with operators to determine key network statistics, investment, technology rollout plans, subscribers by service, tariff plans and service offerings.• Internal statistics and bulletins published by operators.
Vendors• Interviews with key officials within vendors both at in-country offices and in company headquarters.
The Economist Intelligence Unit• Economic indicators.• Country reports on economic and political outlooks.• Regional business newsletters and industry trends.
Other• Occasionally, independent reputable secondary sources are used to validate our forecasts. Secondary sources include institutions such as the World Bank, the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the United Nations (UN).
1. DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic and economic data are provided to help clients establish a framework for each country and region included in the Pyramid mobile communications forecasts. Information such as population , nominal GDP, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation and currency exchange rates are important indicators of market sophistication, current and projected demand, and opportunity. The Economist Intelligence Unit is the source of this economic and demographic data unless otherwise noted.
Population The mid-year population of the country. This number is reported in thousands. It is used to calculate penetration rates.
HouseholdsThe mid-year number of households in the country. This number is reported in thousands.
BusinessesIncludes registered business firms, non-business firms, institutions, schools and government. This number is reported in thousands (000s). Pyramid ordinarily acquires this data from national statistics agencies. In some instances, Pyramid employs additional data from national and international organizations and may employ some of its own analysis and international benchmarking to estimate values.
Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current market prices in US$m.
Real Growth per CapitaPercentage change in the country's nominal GDP per capita, after adjusting for consumer price inflation.
Nominal GDP per CapitaNominal GDP per capita is GDP in US$ divided by population. PPP Adjusted GDP per CapitaGDP per capita adjusted using the country's purchasing power parity index in US$.
Consumer Price InflationPercentage change in consumer price index (12-month average) over previous year.
Exchange rate (Local Currency/US$)Exchange Rates: Foreign currencies are converted to U.S. dollars using the average exchange rate for the year the data was reported.
2. PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Penetration is the measure of adoption of a telecommunications service in a country. It is calculated by dividing the total customer base by the population. It is generally used as a comparative measure of network development with other countries or to compare the different adoption rates of similar service offerings.
Main Line (synonymous with "Narrowband Subscriber Line")A subscriber line with a transmission speed less than or equal to 128 Kbps. Includes plain old telephone service (POTS) or publicly switched telephone network (PSTN) connections, basic rate interface (BRI) ISDN connections and low-speed fixed wireless connections.
Mobile SubscriptionsNumber of registered mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Prepaid Number of registered prepaid mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Postpaid Number of registered contract mobile accounts as reported by operators at the end of the calendar year as a percentage of the population.
Mobile UsersThe number of active mobile service users at the end of the calendar year, as a percentage of the population. A mobile user is an individual with one or more active subscriptions. Pyramid Research bases its calculation on the number of active subscriptions (such as SIM cards) and the ratio of active subscriptions to people, as reported by service providers and national telecom authorities.
3. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY NETWORK OPERATOR
The number of registered subscriptions enrolled with each of the public network operators. Subscription data for network operators includes Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) and reseller subscriptions. MVNO and reseller subscriptions are also shown separately.
Where additional operators are expected to start offering services in the future, their market shares are estimated from the year of their expected launch. Unless the identity and the number of these new operators are known at the time of producing the forecast, they will be considered in aggregate form and noted as Other.
4. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
In recent years, prepaid has become the dominant subscription mode in many countries. This section breaks down the number of registered mobile accounts into two types: prepaid, which includes those subscriptions not subject to a monthly fee or a contract; and postpaid, which includes those subscriptions subject to a contractual agreement between the subscriber and the service provider.
5. CHURN
The annual churn rate represents the number of disconnected mobile accounts during a calendar year as a percentage of the total mobile accounts at the beginning of the same calendar year. In the case of prepaid accounts, different operators use different criteria to consider an account inactive. Pyramid uses the prevailing criteria in each particular country to calculate churn. In the case of postpaid accounts, an account is considered inactive once the contract is terminated by the network operator. Pyramid's churn rate includes both subscribers that abandon mobile service and subscribers that switch their service provider.
6. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
This section breaks down the total number of subscriptions according to the bearer technology that supports them. Analog technologies are shown in aggregate form, and the remaining sub-categories presented are shown separately where relevant, representing the maximum transmission speed achievable per subscription.
Analog Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using analog technologies. Different analog standards such as Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS), Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Total Access Communication System (TACS) are combined into a single analog category.
Digital Trunking/IDENIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using iDEN/ESMR networks. Our estimates include public and commercial networks only, and offered in competition with traditional cellular networks. Our estimates do not account for any closed, private network usage of digital trunking technology.
GSMIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Global System for Mobile Communications standard (GSM) in the 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands. GSM generally provides speeds of up to 9.6 Kbps.
TDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) standard.
CDMA OneIncludes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. Connections to CDMA using stationary/fixed devices are not included in this definition.
CDMA One (WLL) Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
HSCSD Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the High-Speed Circuit-Switched Data standard (HSCSD); assumes that all HSCSD subscriptions are GSM compatible. Depending on the technical specifications of each HSCSD offering, data speeds range from 14.4 Kbps to 57.6 Kbps.
TD-SCDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Synchronous CDMA. The TD-SCDMA standard was proposed by China Wireless Telecommunication Standards group (CWTS) and approved by the ITU in 1999.
TD-CDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the UTRA TDD standard planned to operate in the unpaired spectrum. TDD uses a combined time division and code division multiple access scheme proposed by ETSI Delta group and finalized in 1999.
PASIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Access System standard.
PHSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Handyphone System standard
PDCIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Digital standard (PDC), the TDMA-based second generation technology originated in, and mainly used in, Japan. PDC based services operate in the 800 MHz and 1500 MHz frequency bands.
GSM/GPRSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS); assumes that all GPRS subscriptions are GSM compatible.
GSM/EDGEIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution standard (EDGE); assumes that all EDGE subscriptions are GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with an EDGE service is 384 Kbps.
CDMA 1XIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The theoretical data transfer peak speed attainable with a CDMA 1x service is 144 Kbps.
CDMA 1X (WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
CDMA2000 (EV/3X)Includes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
UMTSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System standard (UMTS); assumes that all UMTS subscriptions are EDGE, GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with a UMTS service is 2 Mbps.
HSPAOur estimates include subscriptions to cellular networks using the WCDMA based High Speed Packet Access protocols. Our definition encompasses HSDPA and HSUPA protocols. HSDPA offers mobile data communications at theoretical speeds up to 14.4 Mbps, or around 7Mbps in actual deployments.
Mobile WiMAXThis category refers to wireless access lines using WiMAX technology. Those subscriptions using WiMAX for fixed or portable applications are captured in our Fixed Communications forecasts.
LTEThis category refers to the “Long Term Evolution” phase of the UMTS standard, essentially UMTS Release 8. LTE seeks to offer Download rates of 100 Mbit/s, and upload rates of 50 Mbit/s for every 20 MHz of spectrum.
Other TechnologiesOur “Other” category encompasses all 4G technology not included above, that will be available as a stand-alone, distinct technology offering. This includes UMB, Flash-OFDM and other technologies that may emerge in the build-up towards 4G.
7. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Includes all subscriptions that are obtained by the individual through the company that he/she works for. The company generally selects the service provider contracted as part of a broader enterprise plan, and is responsible for the monthly payment of the service. Subscriptions that are used primarily for business purposes, but are paid for by the individual, are not included in business subscriptions but, rather, are included in consumer subscriptions.
ConsumersIncludes the non-business customer base composed of the total market subscribers less the corporate base.
8. MOBILE DATA USERS
Messaging
Number of active mobile users using messaging services such as SMS, MMS, Email and Instant Messaging services.
SMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using two-way messaging services. Includes generally P2P messaging only.
MMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using multimedia messaging services defined as a messaging technology that allows users to exchange multimedia communications between capable mobile phones and other devices. MMS is an extension to the SMS protocol as it allows users to send and receive, almost instantaneously, wireless messages that include images, audio, and video clips in addition to text.
EmailActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing service providers or external email on a wireless device. Include users of SMS-based and WAP-based email applications, as well as users of such email devices as a BlackBerry.
Other MessagingActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing messaging services exclusive of SMS, MMS and Email such as text and WAP-based instant messaging services on wireless devices.
Mobile Video UsersThe number of unduplicated people who use video services on a wireless device. Video services include all video clip downloads, video calling, streaming and TV multicast/broadcast services.
© 2013 Client Confidential
6. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
This section breaks down the total number of subscriptions according to the bearer technology that supports them. Analog technologies are shown in aggregate form, and the remaining sub-categories presented are shown separately where relevant, representing the maximum transmission speed achievable per subscription.
Analog Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using analog technologies. Different analog standards such as Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS), Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Total Access Communication System (TACS) are combined into a single analog category.
Digital Trunking/IDENIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using iDEN/ESMR networks. Our estimates include public and commercial networks only, and offered in competition with traditional cellular networks. Our estimates do not account for any closed, private network usage of digital trunking technology.
GSMIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Global System for Mobile Communications standard (GSM) in the 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands. GSM generally provides speeds of up to 9.6 Kbps.
TDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) standard.
CDMA OneIncludes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. Connections to CDMA using stationary/fixed devices are not included in this definition.
CDMA One (WLL) Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
HSCSD Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the High-Speed Circuit-Switched Data standard (HSCSD); assumes that all HSCSD subscriptions are GSM compatible. Depending on the technical specifications of each HSCSD offering, data speeds range from 14.4 Kbps to 57.6 Kbps.
TD-SCDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Synchronous CDMA. The TD-SCDMA standard was proposed by China Wireless Telecommunication Standards group (CWTS) and approved by the ITU in 1999.
TD-CDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the UTRA TDD standard planned to operate in the unpaired spectrum. TDD uses a combined time division and code division multiple access scheme proposed by ETSI Delta group and finalized in 1999.
PASIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Access System standard.
PHSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Handyphone System standard
PDCIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Digital standard (PDC), the TDMA-based second generation technology originated in, and mainly used in, Japan. PDC based services operate in the 800 MHz and 1500 MHz frequency bands.
GSM/GPRSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS); assumes that all GPRS subscriptions are GSM compatible.
GSM/EDGEIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution standard (EDGE); assumes that all EDGE subscriptions are GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with an EDGE service is 384 Kbps.
CDMA 1XIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The theoretical data transfer peak speed attainable with a CDMA 1x service is 144 Kbps.
CDMA 1X (WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
CDMA2000 (EV/3X)Includes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
UMTSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System standard (UMTS); assumes that all UMTS subscriptions are EDGE, GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with a UMTS service is 2 Mbps.
HSPAOur estimates include subscriptions to cellular networks using the WCDMA based High Speed Packet Access protocols. Our definition encompasses HSDPA and HSUPA protocols. HSDPA offers mobile data communications at theoretical speeds up to 14.4 Mbps, or around 7Mbps in actual deployments.
Mobile WiMAXThis category refers to wireless access lines using WiMAX technology. Those subscriptions using WiMAX for fixed or portable applications are captured in our Fixed Communications forecasts.
LTEThis category refers to the “Long Term Evolution” phase of the UMTS standard, essentially UMTS Release 8. LTE seeks to offer Download rates of 100 Mbit/s, and upload rates of 50 Mbit/s for every 20 MHz of spectrum.
Other TechnologiesOur “Other” category encompasses all 4G technology not included above, that will be available as a stand-alone, distinct technology offering. This includes UMB, Flash-OFDM and other technologies that may emerge in the build-up towards 4G.
7. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Includes all subscriptions that are obtained by the individual through the company that he/she works for. The company generally selects the service provider contracted as part of a broader enterprise plan, and is responsible for the monthly payment of the service. Subscriptions that are used primarily for business purposes, but are paid for by the individual, are not included in business subscriptions but, rather, are included in consumer subscriptions.
ConsumersIncludes the non-business customer base composed of the total market subscribers less the corporate base.
8. MOBILE DATA USERS
Messaging
Number of active mobile users using messaging services such as SMS, MMS, Email and Instant Messaging services.
SMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using two-way messaging services. Includes generally P2P messaging only.
MMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using multimedia messaging services defined as a messaging technology that allows users to exchange multimedia communications between capable mobile phones and other devices. MMS is an extension to the SMS protocol as it allows users to send and receive, almost instantaneously, wireless messages that include images, audio, and video clips in addition to text.
EmailActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing service providers or external email on a wireless device. Include users of SMS-based and WAP-based email applications, as well as users of such email devices as a BlackBerry.
Other MessagingActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing messaging services exclusive of SMS, MMS and Email such as text and WAP-based instant messaging services on wireless devices.
Mobile Video UsersThe number of unduplicated people who use video services on a wireless device. Video services include all video clip downloads, video calling, streaming and TV multicast/broadcast services.
© 2013 Client Confidential
.
6. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
This section breaks down the total number of subscriptions according to the bearer technology that supports them. Analog technologies are shown in aggregate form, and the remaining sub-categories presented are shown separately where relevant, representing the maximum transmission speed achievable per subscription.
Analog Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using analog technologies. Different analog standards such as Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS), Nordic Mobile Telephone (NMT) and Total Access Communication System (TACS) are combined into a single analog category.
Digital Trunking/IDENIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using iDEN/ESMR networks. Our estimates include public and commercial networks only, and offered in competition with traditional cellular networks. Our estimates do not account for any closed, private network usage of digital trunking technology.
GSMIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Global System for Mobile Communications standard (GSM) in the 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands. GSM generally provides speeds of up to 9.6 Kbps.
TDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) standard.
CDMA OneIncludes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. Connections to CDMA using stationary/fixed devices are not included in this definition.
CDMA One (WLL) Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). CDMA is based on the IS-95 standard. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
HSCSD Includes subscriptions to cellular networks using the High-Speed Circuit-Switched Data standard (HSCSD); assumes that all HSCSD subscriptions are GSM compatible. Depending on the technical specifications of each HSCSD offering, data speeds range from 14.4 Kbps to 57.6 Kbps.
TD-SCDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Time Division Synchronous CDMA. The TD-SCDMA standard was proposed by China Wireless Telecommunication Standards group (CWTS) and approved by the ITU in 1999.
TD-CDMAIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the UTRA TDD standard planned to operate in the unpaired spectrum. TDD uses a combined time division and code division multiple access scheme proposed by ETSI Delta group and finalized in 1999.
PASIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Access System standard.
PHSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Handyphone System standard
PDCIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Personal Digital standard (PDC), the TDMA-based second generation technology originated in, and mainly used in, Japan. PDC based services operate in the 800 MHz and 1500 MHz frequency bands.
GSM/GPRSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the General Packet Radio Service (GPRS); assumes that all GPRS subscriptions are GSM compatible.
GSM/EDGEIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution standard (EDGE); assumes that all EDGE subscriptions are GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with an EDGE service is 384 Kbps.
CDMA 1XIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The theoretical data transfer peak speed attainable with a CDMA 1x service is 144 Kbps.
CDMA 1X (WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using the CDMA 1xRTT standard; assumes that all CDMA 1x subscriptions are backward-compatible with CDMA. The focus here is on lines with fixed devices, or with a mobility technologically restricted to a narrow, restrained zone (e.g. a neighborhood or a city).
CDMA2000 (EV/3X)Includes mobile subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL)Includes stationary or limited mobility subscriptions to cellular networks using CDMA EV-DO, EV-DO Rev A, and EV-DO Rev B.
UMTSIncludes subscriptions to cellular networks using the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System standard (UMTS); assumes that all UMTS subscriptions are EDGE, GPRS and GSM compatible. The theoretical peak speed attainable with a UMTS service is 2 Mbps.
HSPAOur estimates include subscriptions to cellular networks using the WCDMA based High Speed Packet Access protocols. Our definition encompasses HSDPA and HSUPA protocols. HSDPA offers mobile data communications at theoretical speeds up to 14.4 Mbps, or around 7Mbps in actual deployments.
Mobile WiMAXThis category refers to wireless access lines using WiMAX technology. Those subscriptions using WiMAX for fixed or portable applications are captured in our Fixed Communications forecasts.
LTEThis category refers to the “Long Term Evolution” phase of the UMTS standard, essentially UMTS Release 8. LTE seeks to offer Download rates of 100 Mbit/s, and upload rates of 50 Mbit/s for every 20 MHz of spectrum.
Other TechnologiesOur “Other” category encompasses all 4G technology not included above, that will be available as a stand-alone, distinct technology offering. This includes UMB, Flash-OFDM and other technologies that may emerge in the build-up towards 4G.
7. SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Business Includes all subscriptions that are obtained by the individual through the company that he/she works for. The company generally selects the service provider contracted as part of a broader enterprise plan, and is responsible for the monthly payment of the service. Subscriptions that are used primarily for business purposes, but are paid for by the individual, are not included in business subscriptions but, rather, are included in consumer subscriptions.
ConsumersIncludes the non-business customer base composed of the total market subscribers less the corporate base.
8. MOBILE DATA USERS
Messaging
Number of active mobile users using messaging services such as SMS, MMS, Email and Instant Messaging services.
SMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using two-way messaging services. Includes generally P2P messaging only.
MMSActive unduplicated mobile subscribers using multimedia messaging services defined as a messaging technology that allows users to exchange multimedia communications between capable mobile phones and other devices. MMS is an extension to the SMS protocol as it allows users to send and receive, almost instantaneously, wireless messages that include images, audio, and video clips in addition to text.
EmailActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing service providers or external email on a wireless device. Include users of SMS-based and WAP-based email applications, as well as users of such email devices as a BlackBerry.
Other MessagingActive unduplicated mobile subscribers accessing messaging services exclusive of SMS, MMS and Email such as text and WAP-based instant messaging services on wireless devices.
Mobile Video UsersThe number of unduplicated people who use video services on a wireless device. Video services include all video clip downloads, video calling, streaming and TV multicast/broadcast services.
Applications
Number of active mobile users using application or non-messaging services such as ringtone, music, video or remote access services.
RingtonesActive unduplicated mobile users downloading ringtones to a wireless device. The number of ringtone users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who download SMS-based ringtones, as well as multimedia messaging users. The ringtone classification includes all monophonic, polyphonic, ringback and ‘‘realtune’’ (music tracks as ring tones) downloads.
Graphics/ImagesActive unduplicated mobile users downloading photos, logos, etc to a wireless device. The number of imaging applications users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who download SMS-based images, as well as multimedia messaging users.
GamesActive unduplicated mobile users who download mobile games from service providers and third-party content publishers on J2ME and BREW-enabled devices, as well as subscribers playing multi-player mobile games online to the wireless device.
Browsing/WAP Active unduplicated mobile users who download content from service providers and third party content publishers. Includes all content-based services such as browsing, premium content across all segments and content-based VAS such as Location-Based Services (LBS). Excludes music downloads, all video and broadcast content.
MusicActive unduplicated mobile users who download mobile music services from service providers and third party content publishers on enabled devices. The category includes all music download and streaming services.
VideoUsers (number of unduplicated people) that use video services on a wireless device. Includes all video clip downloads, peer-to-peer video calling, video messaging/mail (via email or flavors of messaging), streaming and TV broadcast services.
Data Cards/ModemsActive unduplicated mobile users that subscribe to remote access services via data cards such as GPRS, UMTS and/or Wi-Fi packages.
9. USAGE
Shows MOU (minutes of usage) per subscription, and segments usage by prepaid and postpaid subscription. MOU includes both incoming and outgoing traffic. SMS and MMS usage per month per subscription is also shown. Per standard industry reporting, t is important to note that our SMS and MMS usage metrics as shown assume all subscriptions use SMS and MMS services. As such the SMS and MMS monthly usage expressed in our forecast is a diluted figure. When calculating SMS and MMS usage, however, Pyramid Research relies on usage patters for those who subscribe to the service only.
10. AVERAGE REVENUE PER SUBSCRIPTION (ARPS)
ARPS stands for Average Revenue per Subscription and represents a measure of the amount of revenue that each subscription generates on average each month. ARPS figures are reported in US dollars. We provide ARPS on an aggregate basis, prepaid and postpaid basis, operator basis, voice and data basis, by messaging service and data application, and by technology generation (3G and non-3G).
11. REVENUES
Revenue figures are reported in millions of US dollars. Total revenues are calculated using a bottom-up approach that takes into consideration the average number of user and/or accounts of a particular technology in a given year and the average monthly revenue per subscription (ARPS) during that same year. Non-recurring fees such as activation fees are not accounted for in our present methodology.
Revenues are exclusive of VAT.
© 2013 Client Confidential
Applications
Number of active mobile users using application or non-messaging services such as ringtone, music, video or remote access services.
RingtonesActive unduplicated mobile users downloading ringtones to a wireless device. The number of ringtone users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who download SMS-based ringtones, as well as multimedia messaging users. The ringtone classification includes all monophonic, polyphonic, ringback and ‘‘realtune’’ (music tracks as ring tones) downloads.
Graphics/ImagesActive unduplicated mobile users downloading photos, logos, etc to a wireless device. The number of imaging applications users will be higher than the number of MMS users, as it will include subscribers who download SMS-based images, as well as multimedia messaging users.
GamesActive unduplicated mobile users who download mobile games from service providers and third-party content publishers on J2ME and BREW-enabled devices, as well as subscribers playing multi-player mobile games online to the wireless device.
Browsing/WAP Active unduplicated mobile users who download content from service providers and third party content publishers. Includes all content-based services such as browsing, premium content across all segments and content-based VAS such as Location-Based Services (LBS). Excludes music downloads, all video and broadcast content.
MusicActive unduplicated mobile users who download mobile music services from service providers and third party content publishers on enabled devices. The category includes all music download and streaming services.
VideoUsers (number of unduplicated people) that use video services on a wireless device. Includes all video clip downloads, peer-to-peer video calling, video messaging/mail (via email or flavors of messaging), streaming and TV broadcast services.
Data Cards/ModemsActive unduplicated mobile users that subscribe to remote access services via data cards such as GPRS, UMTS and/or Wi-Fi packages.
9. USAGE
Shows MOU (minutes of usage) per subscription, and segments usage by prepaid and postpaid subscription. MOU includes both incoming and outgoing traffic. SMS and MMS usage per month per subscription is also shown. Per standard industry reporting, t is important to note that our SMS and MMS usage metrics as shown assume all subscriptions use SMS and MMS services. As such the SMS and MMS monthly usage expressed in our forecast is a diluted figure. When calculating SMS and MMS usage, however, Pyramid Research relies on usage patters for those who subscribe to the service only.
10. AVERAGE REVENUE PER SUBSCRIPTION (ARPS)
ARPS stands for Average Revenue per Subscription and represents a measure of the amount of revenue that each subscription generates on average each month. ARPS figures are reported in US dollars. We provide ARPS on an aggregate basis, prepaid and postpaid basis, operator basis, voice and data basis, by messaging service and data application, and by technology generation (3G and non-3G).
11. REVENUES
Revenue figures are reported in millions of US dollars. Total revenues are calculated using a bottom-up approach that takes into consideration the average number of user and/or accounts of a particular technology in a given year and the average monthly revenue per subscription (ARPS) during that same year. Non-recurring fees such as activation fees are not accounted for in our present methodology.
Revenues are exclusive of VAT.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
LATIN AMERICA FORECAST INSIGHTS
COUNTRY CHANGE RATIONALE
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico Mobile subscriptions
LTE subscriptions
SMS traffic
MVNOs
Peru
Venezuela
Subscription growth from 2013 onward
Based on new data reported by operators in Q3 2013, we have increased our estimate of mobile subscriptions at year-end 2013 in Argentina from 62.9m to 64.8m and set annual growth for the 2013-2018 period at 4.7%. Among the operators, Movistar continues to be the market leader in terms of net additions. During the first nine months of the year, the Spanish operator added 2.7m subscribers, which we estimate reached 3.6m for the whole 2013 year.
Mobile subscriptions in 2013
Based on third-quarter operator- and Anatel-reported data, we have lowered our estimate for total mobile subscriptions at year-end 2013 by 5m. This adjustment, in turn, had a negative effect on our total mobile subscriptions projections for the 2013-2018 period.
Based on NII's Q3 results, we have modified downward our total mobile subscriptions for the operator during 2013 and during the 2014-2018 period. Between Q2 and Q3, Nextel Mexico disconnected 400,000 mobile users, which affected negatively our total mobile projections for the year.
Pyramid Research revised upwards its LTE subscriptions for 2013 based on primary research obtained from the market. Previous data pointed to 400,000 LTE subscriptions at year-end 2013 while newly obtained data suggests the total will be closer to 700,000 LTE subscriptions at year-end.
SMS traffic started to show negative growth in May 2013. After gathering more information, we can confirm that total SMS traffic is falling every month, and this trend is now incorporated in estimates for the whole forecast period.
We incorporated Virgin Mobile as a new MVNO in the market; it will start operations in the middle of 2014.
Nextel's share of total subscriptions in the mobile market
Based on third-quarter operator data, we have slightly lowered our projected market share for Nextel at year-end 2013, from 6.6% to 6.3% of subscriptions.
LTE subscriptions in 2013-2018
The push by mobile operators for LTE will be stronger than previously expected. We have raised the expected CAGR of LTE subscriptions for the 2014-2018 period from 91% to 106%.
LTE subscriptions at year-end 2013
Due to the increasing difficulty of importing smartphones at the official exchange rate and based on primary research, we have slightly ajusted downward our estimates of the total number of LTE subscriptions for 2013, from 27,000 in the previous quarter's forecast to 22,000.
© 2013 Client Confidential
© 2013 Client Confidential
Mobile Data
Antigua & Barbuda
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize
Bermuda
Cuba
Dominica
French Guiana
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Guyana
Haiti
Jamaica
Martinique
Neth. Antilles
St. Kitts and Nevis
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Suriname
Trinidad & Tobago
Virgin Islands (US)
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA TOTAL REGION — DECEMBER 2013
LATIN AMERICA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 581,338 590,453 597,538 604,557 611,502 618,779 625,699 632,031 638,410 644,789
Households [000] 148,366 150,351 152,313 154,314 156,330 158,400 160,584 162,887 165,329 167,814
Businesses [000] 19,039 19,709 20,275 20,771 21,226 21,667 22,020 22,356 22,671 22,971
Nominal GDP [US$m] $4,201,258 $5,255,690 $5,885,109 $5,883,672 $6,014,028 $6,244,612 $6,696,808 $7,027,890 $7,429,624 $7,835,931
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $7,227 $8,901 $9,849 $9,732 $9,835 $10,092 $10,703 $11,120 $11,638 $12,153
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Consumer Price Inflation [%] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13%
Mobile Users [%] 69% 74% 78% 81% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 84%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 89% 99% 109% 115% 118% 125% 130% 134% 137% 140%
Prepaid [%] 74% 81% 88% 93% 93% 98% 101% 104% 106% 107%
Postpaid [%] 15% 18% 21% 23% 25% 27% 28% 30% 32% 33%
Mobile Data Users [%] 60% 73% 85% 96% 100% 107% 113% 119% 124% 128%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 519,251 582,500 649,109 696,641 722,938 771,940 811,136 845,679 876,259 902,603
Argentina [000] 48,429 52,040 55,934 58,376 64,790 69,255 72,868 76,056 78,922 81,398
Bolivia [000] 6,194 7,264 8,462 9,450 10,253 11,014 11,739 12,442 13,135 13,862
Brazil [000] 176,487 206,250 246,347 265,662 274,630 297,672 316,008 331,599 344,614 354,663
Chile [000] 17,622 21,298 24,510 26,657 26,869 28,182 29,432 30,656 31,840 33,070
Colombia [000] 41,289 44,616 46,359 49,219 48,299 51,475 52,783 54,012 55,207 56,313
Costa Rica [000] 1,826 2,860 4,122 5,378 6,582 7,480 8,101 8,468 8,690 8,802
Dominican Republic [000] 8,559 8,837 9,060 9,143 9,446 9,759 10,126 10,482 10,807 11,066
Ecuador [000] 13,527 15,212 15,838 17,040 17,765 18,553 19,171 19,658 20,080 20,460
El Salvador [000] 7,566 7,823 8,316 8,635 8,852 9,076 9,304 9,539 9,782 9,931Guatemala [000] 11,919 13,489 14,530 16,675 18,320 19,334 20,008 20,616 21,139 21,564
Honduras [000] 7,695 8,815 8,887 9,794 10,442 10,862 11,174 11,468 11,723 11,960
Mexico [000] 83,150 91,362 94,565 100,727 103,715 109,484 115,093 120,253 125,122 130,148
Nicaragua [000] 3,295 3,761 4,251 4,625 4,912 5,142 5,382 5,635 5,899 5,988
Panama [000] 4,718 5,788 6,889 7,027 7,255 7,400 7,541 7,680 7,810 7,928
Paraguay [000] 5,497 5,900 6,365 7,034 7,546 7,937 8,253 8,530 8,781 9,010
Peru [000] 20,610 23,321 26,687 29,756 29,781 32,274 34,284 36,151 37,969 39,748
Puerto Rico [000] 2,716 2,934 3,108 3,271 3,461 3,663 3,879 4,110 4,352 4,609
Uruguay [000] 4,112 4,437 4,757 4,995 5,168 5,326 5,489 5,653 5,814 5,967
Venezuela [000] 29,625 29,472 30,417 31,732 32,659 34,144 35,354 36,527 37,631 38,581
Rest of Region [000] 24,417 27,021 29,703 31,446 32,191 33,907 35,146 36,145 36,943 37,537
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 64 204 652 974 1,755 3,301 4,919 6,637 8,306 9,935
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 431,791 478,167 526,218 559,658 571,446 606,949 633,468 655,658 674,928 691,345
Postpaid [000] 87,460 104,333 122,890 136,984 151,492 164,990 177,668 190,022 201,331 211,258
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 39.2% 39.4% 46.8% 48.6% 49.4% 48.1% 47.6% 44.5% 44.6% 44.3%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 519,251 582,500 649,089 696,641 722,938 771,940 811,136 845,679 876,259 902,603
Analog [000] 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 7,888 9,520 11,169 11,584 10,639 10,272 10,032 9,313 8,189 6,823
GSM [000] 102,877 80,765 56,817 39,487 24,868 14,173 8,798 5,516 2,895 979
TDMA [000] 4,283 1,466 915 392 41 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 18,898 12,206 2,290 1,655 1,233 871 687 490 257 213
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 207,018 217,783 220,177 210,545 185,309 159,810 138,028 108,539 75,838 47,000
GSM/EDGE [000] 115,606 154,810 197,436 220,981 204,262 174,104 149,231 126,311 104,181 90,760
CDMA 1X [000] 13,693 12,976 10,585 9,418 9,438 9,534 9,185 8,432 7,334 5,489
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 6,291 5,719 5,766 5,217 3,406 2,675 2,318 1,971 1,552 1,053
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 29,259 55,535 82,602 106,780 142,750 177,673 212,478 234,658 250,190 258,777
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© 2013 Client Confidential
HSPA [000] 13,411 31,719 61,309 90,444 138,466 214,484 261,312 321,264 377,235 419,968
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 20 48 88 127 169 202 234 269
LTE [000] 0 0 5 92 2,437 8,217 18,898 28,984 48,354 71,273
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 483,316 541,899 604,240 647,593 671,550 716,233 751,541 782,676 810,051 833,461
Business Subscriptions [000] 35,935 40,601 44,869 49,049 51,388 55,707 59,594 63,003 66,208 69,142
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 348,076 431,976 509,543 578,204 612,251 661,734 708,089 750,856 789,265 824,737
MMS [000] 54,335 66,215 75,378 81,103 84,694 89,251 93,396 96,425 98,257 99,267
Email [000] 41,298 62,070 82,764 100,815 114,777 134,394 153,744 169,105 181,604 192,287
Others [000] 39,332 45,777 53,615 57,944 59,853 64,148 67,580 70,569 73,649 76,736
Applications
Ringtones [000] 38,204 46,297 53,474 59,939 67,514 74,009 80,425 86,638 92,932 99,530
Graphics/Images [000] 16,200 20,356 24,613 28,487 30,945 33,721 36,168 37,812 38,985 40,144
Games [000] 10,353 14,102 17,852 21,778 25,316 29,438 33,595 37,888 42,552 47,688
Browsing/WAP [000] 22,433 39,006 60,574 101,695 143,034 185,660 230,008 274,713 317,991 360,899
Music [000] 11,775 20,424 31,043 42,049 51,065 58,889 63,687 68,570 73,987 82,530
Video [000] 7,530 13,457 21,403 29,912 37,383 46,137 54,756 64,994 74,907 85,489
Data cards/Modems [000] 7,150 12,793 17,096 20,712 23,923 30,334 36,296 42,307 48,443 54,379
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 132 142 149 155 160 167 172 179 185 191
Prepaid [units/month] 90 98 102 106 109 112 116 120 123 127
Postpaid [units/month] 340 356 356 359 363 369 377 386 394 404
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 45 51 56 59 60 62 62 63 63 64
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $12.67 $13.07 $12.89 $12.22 $11.89 $11.98 $12.25 $12.25 $12.25 $12.26
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $8.32 $8.17 $7.99 $7.50 $7.04 $7.01 $7.17 $7.03 $6.86 $6.73
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $34.85 $36.96 $35.10 $32.34 $31.03 $30.52 $30.51 $30.39 $30.33 $30.19
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $10.43 $10.42 $9.73 $8.77 $8.18 $7.94 $7.85 $7.62 $7.40 $7.19
Data ARPS [US$/month] $2.24 $2.64 $3.16 $3.45 $3.71 $4.04 $4.40 $4.63 $4.86 $5.07
Messaging [US$/month] $1.54 $1.58 $1.78 $1.85 $1.83 $1.86 $1.92 $1.91 $1.89 $1.84
SMS [US$/month] $1.39 $1.40 $1.54 $1.59 $1.54 $1.55 $1.59 $1.57 $1.54 $1.49
MMS [US$/month] $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04
Email [US$/month] $0.08 $0.09 $0.15 $0.16 $0.18 $0.21 $0.23 $0.24 $0.25 $0.25
Others [US$/month] $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
Applications [US$/month] $0.70 $1.06 $1.38 $1.60 $1.88 $2.18 $2.47 $2.72 $2.96 $3.23
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05
Games [US$/month] $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.20 $0.33 $0.45 $0.63 $0.86 $1.07 $1.25 $1.41 $1.58 $1.75
Music [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.09 $0.10
Data Cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.30 $0.50 $0.66 $0.67 $0.70 $0.77 $0.86 $0.93 $1.00 $1.06
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Non-3G [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $74,749 $86,386 $95,283 $98,652 $101,283 $107,468 $116,354 $121,748 $126,604 $130,838
Voice Revenue [US$m] $61,548 $68,906 $71,915 $70,831 $69,706 $71,207 $74,604 $75,727 $76,432 $76,757
Data Revenue [US$m] $13,201 $17,481 $23,368 $27,820 $31,577 $36,261 $41,750 $46,020 $50,171 $54,081
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $9,078 $10,456 $13,173 $14,924 $15,551 $16,685 $18,242 $19,028 $19,555 $19,658
SMS [US$m] $8,229 $9,275 $11,415 $12,812 $13,136 $13,921 $15,090 $15,588 $15,913 $15,887
MMS [US$m] $236 $326 $369 $404 $432 $449 $468 $475 $483 $475
Email [US$m] $453 $625 $1,074 $1,332 $1,570 $1,855 $2,180 $2,428 $2,592 $2,709
Others [US$m] $160 $231 $315 $377 $413 $459 $504 $537 $567 $586
Applications Revenue [US$m] $4,124 $7,024 $10,190 $12,900 $16,026 $19,576 $23,509 $26,992 $30,616 $34,423
Ringtones [US$m] $459 $538 $634 $660 $704 $742 $771 $781 $778 $771
Graphics/Images [US$m] $336 $415 $521 $569 $587 $599 $616 $606 $583 $565
Games [US$m] $214 $289 $395 $489 $584 $687 $800 $909 $1,029 $1,134
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $1,181 $2,187 $3,324 $5,116 $7,347 $9,621 $11,893 $14,030 $16,292 $18,702
Music [US$m] $116 $190 $282 $378 $474 $562 $636 $696 $758 $840
© 2013 Client Confidential
Video [US$m] $72 $116 $178 $247 $365 $465 $582 $719 $890 $1,090
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $1,745 $3,290 $4,855 $5,441 $5,966 $6,900 $8,210 $9,250 $10,285 $11,321
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA REST OF REGION — DECEMBER 2013
LATIN AMERICA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 27,048 27,004 26,863 26,715 26,561 26,418 26,257 26,069 25,882 25,693
Households [000] 6,903 6,876 6,847 6,819 6,790 6,763 6,739 6,719 6,703 6,687
Businesses [000] 886 901 911 918 922 925 924 938 951 964
Nominal GDP [US$m] $159,359 $201,801 $228,739 $231,486 $239,514 $251,742 $273,275 $290,294 $310,639 $331,631
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $5,892 $7,473 $8,515 $8,665 $9,017 $9,529 $10,408 $11,135 $12,002 $12,907
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Consumer Price Inflation [%] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8%
Mobile Users [%] 70% 75% 79% 84% 83% 85% 86% 87% 88% 89%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 90% 100% 111% 118% 121% 128% 134% 139% 143% 146%
Prepaid [%] 75% 82% 90% 95% 96% 101% 105% 107% 110% 112%
Postpaid [%] 15% 18% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% 31% 33% 34%
Mobile Data Users [%] 61% 74% 87% 98% 103% 110% 117% 123% 129% 133%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 24,417 27,021 29,703 31,446 32,191 33,907 35,146 36,145 36,943 37,537
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 20,304 22,181 24,080 25,263 25,446 26,660 27,447 28,023 28,455 28,751
Postpaid [000] 4,113 4,840 5,623 6,183 6,746 7,247 7,698 8,122 8,488 8,786
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 39.2% 39.4% 46.8% 48.6% 49.4% 48.1% 47.6% 44.5% 44.6% 44.3%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 24,417 27,021 29,702 31,446 32,191 33,907 35,146 36,145 36,943 37,537
Analog [000] 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 288 320 358 354 321 305 294 269 233 192
GSM [000] 4,838 3,746 2,600 1,782 1,107 623 381 236 122 41
TDMA [000] 201 68 42 18 2 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 889 566 105 75 55 38 30 21 11 9
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 9,735 10,102 10,075 9,504 8,252 7,020 5,981 4,639 3,197 1,955
GSM/EDGE [000] 5,436 7,181 9,035 9,975 9,095 7,648 6,466 5,399 4,392 3,774
CDMA 1X [000] 644 602 484 425 420 419 398 360 309 228
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 296 265 264 235 152 117 100 84 65 44
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 1,458 2,698 3,933 4,989 6,510 7,950 9,347 10,158 10,660 10,854
HSPA [000] 631 1,471 2,805 4,083 6,166 9,421 11,322 13,731 15,904 17,465
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 1 2 4 6 7 9 10 11
LTE [000] 0 0 0 4 108 361 819 1,239 2,039 2,964
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 22,727 25,137 27,650 29,232 29,903 31,460 32,563 33,452 34,152 34,661
Business Subscriptions [000] 1,690 1,883 2,053 2,214 2,288 2,447 2,582 2,693 2,791 2,875
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 16,368 20,038 23,317 26,100 27,263 29,067 30,681 32,092 33,276 34,299
MMS [000] 2,555 3,072 3,449 3,661 3,771 3,920 4,047 4,121 4,143 4,128
Email [000] 1,942 2,879 3,787 4,551 5,111 5,903 6,662 7,228 7,656 7,997
Others [000] 1,850 2,123 2,453 2,616 2,665 2,818 2,928 3,016 3,105 3,191
Applications
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© 2013 Client Confidential
Ringtones [000] 1,796 2,148 2,447 2,706 3,006 3,251 3,485 3,703 3,918 4,139
Graphics/Images [000] 762 944 1,126 1,286 1,378 1,481 1,567 1,616 1,644 1,669
Games [000] 487 654 817 983 1,127 1,293 1,456 1,619 1,794 1,983
Browsing/WAP [000] 1,055 1,809 2,772 4,591 6,369 8,155 9,966 11,741 13,407 15,009
Music [000] 554 947 1,421 1,898 2,274 2,587 2,760 2,931 3,119 3,432
Video [000] 354 624 979 1,350 1,665 2,027 2,373 2,778 3,158 3,555
Data cards/Modems [000] 336 593 782 935 1,065 1,332 1,573 1,808 2,042 2,261
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 132 142 149 155 160 167 172 179 185 191
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 45 51 56 59 60 62 62 63 63 64
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type [US$/month] $10.15 $10.75 $10.88 $10.58 $10.56 $10.92 $11.46 $11.76 $12.07 $12.39
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $8.36 $8.57 $8.21 $7.60 $7.27 $7.24 $7.35 $7.31 $7.29 $7.27
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.79 $2.17 $2.67 $2.98 $3.29 $3.69 $4.11 $4.44 $4.78 $5.12
Messaging [US$/month] $1.23 $1.30 $1.50 $1.60 $1.62 $1.70 $1.80 $1.84 $1.86 $1.86
SMS [US$/month] $1.12 $1.15 $1.30 $1.37 $1.37 $1.42 $1.49 $1.51 $1.52 $1.50
MMS [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04
Email [US$/month] $0.06 $0.08 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.19 $0.21 $0.23 $0.25 $0.26
Others [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06
Applications [US$/month] $0.56 $0.87 $1.16 $1.38 $1.67 $1.99 $2.32 $2.61 $2.92 $3.26
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05
Games [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.16 $0.27 $0.38 $0.55 $0.77 $0.98 $1.17 $1.35 $1.55 $1.77
Music [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.10
Data Cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.24 $0.41 $0.55 $0.58 $0.62 $0.70 $0.81 $0.89 $0.98 $1.07
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $2,835 $3,317 $3,703 $3,881 $4,034 $4,332 $4,748 $5,029 $5,293 $5,537
Voice Revenue [US$m] $2,335 $2,646 $2,795 $2,787 $2,776 $2,871 $3,044 $3,128 $3,196 $3,248
Data Revenue [US$m] $501 $671 $908 $1,095 $1,258 $1,462 $1,704 $1,901 $2,098 $2,289
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $344 $401 $512 $587 $619 $673 $744 $786 $818 $832
SMS [US$m] $312 $356 $444 $504 $523 $561 $616 $644 $665 $672
MMS [US$m] $9 $13 $14 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20 $20 $20
Email [US$m] $17 $24 $42 $52 $63 $75 $89 $100 $108 $115
Others [US$m] $6 $9 $12 $15 $16 $19 $21 $22 $24 $25
Applications Revenue [US$m] $156 $270 $396 $508 $638 $789 $959 $1,115 $1,280 $1,457
Ringtones [US$m] $17 $21 $25 $26 $28 $30 $31 $32 $33 $33
Graphics/Images [US$m] $13 $16 $20 $22 $23 $24 $25 $25 $24 $24
Games [US$m] $8 $11 $15 $19 $23 $28 $33 $38 $43 $48
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $45 $84 $129 $201 $293 $388 $485 $580 $681 $791
Music [US$m] $4 $7 $11 $15 $19 $23 $26 $29 $32 $36
Video [US$m] $3 $4 $7 $10 $15 $19 $24 $30 $37 $46
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $66 $126 $189 $214 $238 $278 $335 $382 $430 $479
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
ARGENTINA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 40,130 40,520 40,900 41,280 41,660 42,030 42,400 42,750 43,090 43,400
Households [000] 10,960 11,070 11,170 11,280 11,390 11,500 11,610 11,720 11,840 11,961
Businesses [000] 602 604 607 613 619 625 631 638 644 650
Nominal GDP [US$m] $308,740 $370,260 $448,170 $477,030 $474,800 $444,200 $433,700 $446,100 $475,400 $491,000
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $7,690 $9,140 $10,960 $11,560 $11,400 $10,570 $10,230 $10,440 $11,030 $11,310
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $14,440 $15,800 $17,380 $17,850 $18,930 $19,520 $20,310 $21,420 $22,700 $24,010
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 17.22 22.87 24.42 25.29 20.80 24.80 20.40 15.70 13.40 9.80
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 3.71 3.90 4.11 4.54 5.45 6.83 8.19 9.24 10.00 10.88
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 20%
Mobile Users [%] 68% 69% 70% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71% 71%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 121% 128% 137% 141% 156% 165% 172% 178% 183% 188%
Prepaid [%] 88% 93% 98% 100% 111% 118% 123% 126% 130% 132%
Postpaid [%] 32% 35% 39% 42% 44% 47% 49% 52% 54% 55%
Mobile Data Users [%] 91% 97% 101% 110% 120% 126% 130% 134% 137% 139%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 48,429 52,040 55,934 58,376 64,790 69,255 72,868 76,056 78,922 81,398
Telecom Personal [000] 14,475 16,333 18,193 18,975 20,154 21,418 22,523 23,499 24,422 25,253
Movistar [000] 15,931 16,149 16,767 17,604 21,241 23,037 24,240 25,197 25,921 26,424
Claro [000] 16,994 18,404 19,586 20,041 21,363 22,596 23,717 24,694 25,535 26,220
Nextel [000] 1,030 1,154 1,388 1,756 2,033 2,203 2,388 2,667 3,045 3,501
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 18 36 54 73 244 591 1,057 1,619 2,272
Fecosur [000] 0 18 36 54 72 88 105 123 144 167
Virgin [000] 0 0 0 0 0 69 233 464 750 1,083
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 35,486 37,858 39,960 41,097 46,336 49,557 51,942 53,987 55,825 57,450
Postpaid [000] 12,944 14,181 15,974 17,279 18,454 19,698 20,926 22,069 23,097 23,948
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 29.8% 29.4% 35.4% 38.0% 34.2% 33.1% 31.7% 30.3% 28.7% 27.4%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 48,429 52,040 55,934 58,376 64,790 69,255 72,868 76,056 78,922 81,398
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 1,030 1,154 1,388 1,756 2,033 2,203 2,388 2,667 3,045 3,501
GSM [000] 14,933 11,570 9,107 7,121 5,090 3,188 2,069 1,411 544 0
TDMA [000] 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 159 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 23,785 25,579 24,420 22,934 20,211 15,865 12,110 8,832 5,717 2,744
GSM/EDGE [000] 4,807 6,340 7,566 7,210 6,952 6,408 5,026 3,494 3,044 2,563
CDMA 1X [000] 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 2,533 5,547 9,691 13,010 19,322 24,685 28,856 31,467 32,514 32,357
HSPA [000] 1,005 1,850 3,762 6,345 11,182 16,669 21,608 26,385 30,575 34,041
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 238 811 1,801 3,484 6,191
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 44,902 47,811 50,899 52,547 57,956 61,587 64,465 66,992 69,253 71,181
Business Subscriptions [000] 3,527 4,228 5,036 5,829 6,834 7,668 8,404 9,064 9,669 10,217
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
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© 2013 Client Confidential
Messaging
SMS [000] 36,609 39,190 41,417 45,370 50,094 53,010 55,219 57,173 58,853 60,214
MMS [000] 4,844 7,286 9,843 12,016 14,420 16,225 17,669 18,878 19,907 20,760
Email [000] 2,034 3,643 4,800 5,693 6,774 7,533 8,107 8,566 8,948 9,262
Others [000] 896 1,561 1,913 2,144 2,445 2,641 2,791 2,918 3,030 3,126
Applications
Ringtones [000] 8,719 9,367 9,953 10,519 11,791 12,703 13,450 14,109 14,699 15,208
Graphics/Images [000] 1,226 1,318 1,400 1,496 1,660 1,775 1,868 1,949 2,023 2,087
Games [000] 1,730 2,290 2,920 3,680 4,738 5,824 6,924 8,094 9,407 10,866
Browsing/WAP [000] 4,194 6,037 8,660 11,099 14,043 16,362 18,420 20,187 21,996 23,820
Music [000] 1,632 2,280 3,150 4,037 5,288 6,556 7,864 9,193 10,684 12,342
Video [000] 660 794 1,013 1,298 1,729 2,217 2,799 3,506 4,366 5,404
Data cards/Modems [000] 484 937 1,482 1,605 1,585 1,457 1,288 1,116 938 759
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 111 116 120 122 123 124 126 128 130 131
Prepaid [units/month] 58 58 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
Postpaid [units/month] 253 272 271 265 268 273 276 278 280 282
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 117 126 131 139 147 152 156 161 167 172
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $11.32 $11.98 $12.72 $12.94 $12.27 $12.10 $11.78 $11.77 $11.89 $11.15
Telecom Personal [US$/month] $11.05 $11.78 $12.48 $13.12 $12.65 $12.72 $12.57 $12.68 $12.92 $12.18
Movistar [US$/month] $11.48 $12.73 $13.25 $13.71 $12.41 $12.00 $11.75 $11.83 $12.09 $11.51
Claro [US$/month] $9.59 $9.79 $10.72 $10.46 $10.25 $10.12 $9.76 $9.63 $9.61 $8.92
Nextel [US$/month] $40.31 $39.49 $39.04 $33.77 $29.03 $27.43 $24.89 $23.25 $21.49 $18.13
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $7.63 $7.20 $7.14 $6.92 $6.33 $6.17 $5.87 $5.78 $5.79 $5.34
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $21.07 $24.93 $27.12 $27.63 $26.80 $27.00 $26.55 $26.52 $26.73 $25.13
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $7.89 $7.87 $7.84 $7.40 $6.60 $6.23 $5.76 $5.60 $5.54 $5.05
Data ARPS [US$/month] $3.43 $4.11 $4.88 $5.54 $5.68 $5.86 $6.02 $6.17 $6.36 $6.10
Messaging [US$/month] $2.77 $3.15 $3.59 $3.97 $4.04 $4.15 $4.25 $4.36 $4.46 $4.24
SMS [US$/month] $2.53 $2.81 $3.12 $3.43 $3.46 $3.55 $3.63 $3.73 $3.83 $3.64
MMS [US$/month] $0.07 $0.08 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.16
Email [US$/month] $0.08 $0.11 $0.15 $0.17 $0.19 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20
Others [US$/month] $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.22 $0.24 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.26 $0.24
Applications [US$/month] $0.66 $0.97 $1.29 $1.58 $1.64 $1.71 $1.76 $1.81 $1.90 $1.86
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.07 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.05 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03
Games [US$/month] $0.07 $0.09 $0.12 $0.14 $0.17 $0.20 $0.23 $0.26 $0.29 $0.31
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.30 $0.49 $0.68 $0.84 $0.93 $1.01 $1.07 $1.10 $1.15 $1.11
Music [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.09 $0.10 $0.12
Video [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.09
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.14 $0.25 $0.34 $0.42 $0.34 $0.29 $0.23 $0.19 $0.16 $0.12
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $33.95 $32.35 $30.91 $28.31 $21.23 $17.18 $14.96 $14.05 $13.49 $12.01
Non-3G [US$/month] $10.15 $9.50 $8.37 $6.76 $6.18 $6.18 $5.78 $5.11 $4.89 $5.47
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $6,254 $7,224 $8,241 $8,878 $9,069 $9,729 $10,044 $10,513 $11,057 $10,726
Voice Revenue [US$m] $4,360 $4,743 $5,081 $5,077 $4,875 $5,013 $4,915 $5,001 $5,147 $4,855
Data Revenue [US$m] $1,895 $2,480 $3,160 $3,801 $4,194 $4,716 $5,129 $5,513 $5,910 $5,870
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $1,531 $1,898 $2,324 $2,721 $2,985 $3,341 $3,628 $3,892 $4,148 $4,081
SMS [US$m] $1,397 $1,694 $2,019 $2,352 $2,554 $2,853 $3,098 $3,331 $3,560 $3,499
MMS [US$m] $38 $50 $76 $97 $116 $133 $145 $154 $162 $155
Email [US$m] $44 $65 $98 $118 $139 $158 $171 $181 $188 $193
Others [US$m] $53 $89 $130 $154 $176 $197 $213 $226 $238 $234
Applications Revenue [US$m] $363 $582 $836 $1,080 $1,209 $1,375 $1,501 $1,621 $1,762 $1,789
Ringtones [US$m] $38 $37 $43 $47 $51 $59 $67 $74 $82 $85
Graphics/Images [US$m] $25 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $26 $28 $30 $30
Games [US$m] $40 $55 $77 $99 $127 $161 $195 $230 $274 $298
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $168 $298 $439 $576 $689 $814 $908 $986 $1,066 $1,065
Music [US$m] $8 $14 $21 $29 $38 $50 $63 $77 $92 $111
Video [US$m] $9 $14 $17 $22 $28 $36 $45 $56 $68 $84
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $76 $149 $221 $289 $254 $230 $197 $171 $149 $117
© 2013 Client Confidential
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
BOLIVIA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 9,990 10,160 10,320 10,500 10,680 10,870 11,060 11,250 11,453 11,655
Households [000] 2,815 2,919 3,026 3,138 3,253 3,373 3,498 3,627 3,760 3,899
Businesses [000] 366 373 380 388 396 404 412 420 428 437
Nominal GDP [US$m] $17,217 $19,504 $23,776 $26,841 $30,000 $33,748 $37,448 $41,433 $43,919 $46,405
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $1,724 $1,920 $2,304 $2,556 $2,810 $3,100 $3,390 $3,680 $3,827 $3,974
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $4,519 $4,683 $4,944 $5,200 $5,480 $5,740 $6,000 $6,250 $6,375 $6,500
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 3.35 2.50 9.88 4.52 5.90 7.20 5.80 5.90 6.14 6.37
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 7.07 7.07 6.99 6.96 6.96 6.95 6.91 6.87 7.15 7.43
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Mobile Users [%] 60% 69% 79% 82% 84% 84% 85% 86% 87% 87%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 62% 72% 82% 90% 96% 101% 106% 111% 115% 119%
Prepaid [%] 55% 64% 73% 80% 84% 88% 92% 96% 98% 101%
Postpaid [%] 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 18%
Mobile Data Users [%] 51% 61% 72% 81% 87% 93% 98% 103% 108% 113%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 6,194 7,264 8,462 9,450 10,253 11,014 11,739 12,442 13,135 13,862
Entel Movil [000] 2,621 2,995 3,588 4,150 4,866 5,192 5,530 5,875 6,228 6,637
Tigo [000] 1,937 2,459 2,856 3,127 3,032 3,317 3,562 3,785 3,995 4,153
Nuevatel [000] 1,636 1,811 2,018 2,173 2,355 2,505 2,647 2,782 2,912 3,072
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 2 0 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 18
Cotas Movil [000] 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bolitel [000] 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
Others [000] 0 0 8 10 10 11 12 13 14 15
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 5,535 6,489 7,544 8,370 9,002 9,619 10,196 10,795 11,226 11,765
Postpaid [000] 658 776 918 1,080 1,251 1,395 1,544 1,648 1,909 2,097
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 29.9% 30.5% 31.5% 31.9% 34.1% 33.1% 32.8% 32.5% 32.2% 32.7%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 6,194 7,264 8,462 9,450 10,253 11,014 11,739 12,442 13,135 13,862
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 3,203 2,866 2,490 1,377 887 293 260 235 218 199
TDMA [000] 294 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 1,656 2,540 2,776 2,821 2,493 1,936 1,337 1,059 733 406
GSM/EDGE [000] 905 1,433 2,467 3,508 4,412 5,286 5,680 5,701 5,805 5,428
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 136 335 640 1,198 1,702 2,434 2,980 3,433 3,833 4,586
HSPA [000] 0 0 90 520 710 950 1,282 1,681 2,041 2,590
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 27 49 116 202 333 504 652
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 5,866 6,877 8,010 8,944 9,705 10,425 11,111 11,777 12,432 13,120
Business Subscriptions [000] 328 388 452 506 548 589 628 666 703 742
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
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© 2013 Client Confidential
Messaging
SMS [000] 5,124 6,190 7,412 8,484 9,297 10,088 10,859 11,625 12,394 13,211
MMS [000] 152 184 220 251 278 304 331 347 363 379
Email [000] 331 411 513 607 691 780 873 971 1,076 1,193
Others [000] 289 360 436 501 560 620 681 743 808 912
Applications
Ringtones [000] 607 748 932 1,114 1,269 1,432 1,602 1,783 1,976 2,190
Graphics/Images [000] 344 423 518 607 666 694 763 846 919 998
Games [000] 55 67 82 96 110 124 139 154 171 190
Browsing/WAP [000] 403 617 762 1,134 1,333 1,542 1,761 1,991 2,233 2,634
Music [000] 37 65 113 189 308 496 793 1,261 1,996 3,160
Video [000] 32 49 80 139 211 318 475 704 1,041 1,153
Data cards/Modems [000] 31 65 121 162 194 229 268 298 328 360
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 87 89 90 91 94 96 97 99 101 104
Prepaid [units/month] 71 72 73 74 75 75 76 77 78 78
Postpaid [units/month] 226 228 230 233 236 239 242 244 247 249
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 28 33 37 40 42 40 39 37 35 33
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $7.95 $7.77 $7.63 $7.51 $7.35 $7.17 $7.04 $6.97 $6.94 $6.95
Entel Movil [US$/month] $6.15 $5.97 $5.88 $5.81 $5.70 $5.60 $5.54 $5.55 $5.58 $5.66
Tigo [US$/month] $9.11 $8.98 $8.89 $8.88 $8.95 $8.89 $8.71 $8.58 $8.46 $8.44
Nuevatel [US$/month] $9.45 $9.16 $8.90 $8.68 $8.45 $8.17 $7.91 $7.77 $7.74 $7.71
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $6.62 $6.40 $6.29 $6.14 $5.98 $5.81 $5.70 $5.68 $5.71 $5.58
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $19.22 $19.26 $18.77 $18.39 $17.56 $16.70 $16.04 $15.47 $14.57 $14.86
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $7.15 $6.86 $6.63 $6.39 $6.14 $5.91 $5.73 $5.62 $5.53 $5.46
Data ARPS [US$/month] $0.80 $0.91 $1.00 $1.12 $1.21 $1.25 $1.30 $1.35 $1.41 $1.50
Messaging [US$/month] $0.59 $0.65 $0.69 $0.73 $0.74 $0.71 $0.67 $0.62 $0.57 $0.53
SMS [US$/month] $0.51 $0.57 $0.61 $0.65 $0.66 $0.62 $0.59 $0.54 $0.49 $0.45
MMS [US$/month] $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02
Email [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Applications [US$/month] $0.21 $0.25 $0.31 $0.39 $0.47 $0.55 $0.63 $0.73 $0.84 $0.96
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Games [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.07 $0.09 $0.11 $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 $0.19
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.13 $0.15 $0.17 $0.20 $0.24 $0.25 $0.27 $0.29 $0.30 $0.33
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 $0.09 $0.13 $0.17 $0.24
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 $0.09 $0.10
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $19.23 $19.26 $18.85 $18.77 $18.37 $16.85 $15.83 $14.70 $13.81 $12.38
Non-3G [US$/month] $7.77 $7.35 $6.82 $5.70 $4.36 $3.40 $2.30 $1.60 $1.03 $0.93
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $512 $627 $720 $807 $869 $915 $960 $1,011 $1,065 $1,126
Voice Revenue [US$m] $460 $554 $625 $687 $725 $755 $782 $815 $849 $884
Data Revenue [US$m] $51 $73 $95 $120 $143 $160 $178 $196 $216 $242
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $38 $53 $65 $78 $87 $90 $91 $90 $87 $86
SMS [US$m] $33 $46 $58 $70 $78 $80 $80 $78 $75 $74
MMS [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $5 $5 $4 $4
Email [US$m] $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $5 $6 $6
Others [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $3
Applications Revenue [US$m] $13 $20 $30 $42 $56 $70 $87 $107 $129 $156
Ringtones [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $1 $1 $1
Graphics/Images [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Games [US$m] $2 $3 $5 $7 $10 $14 $19 $23 $27 $31
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $8 $12 $16 $22 $28 $32 $37 $42 $46 $53
Music [US$m] $1 $1 $2 $3 $5 $8 $12 $18 $26 $38
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $3 $6 $9 $13 $17
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $1 $2 $5 $7 $8 $10 $12 $13 $14 $16
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
BRAZIL
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 194,370 196,830 199,250 201,630 203,950 206,600 208,882 210,757 212,650 214,559
Households [000] 51,494 52,267 53,053 53,850 54,659 55,481 56,400 57,415 58,449 59,501
Businesses [000] 6,941 7,237 7,533 7,805 8,044 8,254 8,438 8,590 8,721 8,834
Nominal GDP [US$m] $1,573,409 $2,141,900 $2,473,500 $2,252,400 $2,216,000 $2,191,000 $2,289,000 $2,422,000 $2,569,000 $2,722,000
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $8,597 $11,229 $12,831 $11,570 $11,280 $11,050 $11,450 $12,030 $12,670 $13,340
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $10,560 $11,370 $11,780 $11,970 $12,360 $12,790 $13,310 $13,960 $14,650 $15,320
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 4.89 5.04 5.70 5.40 6.20 5.70 5.80 5.40 5.40 5.00
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 2.00 1.76 1.70 1.90 1.87 1.90 1.91 1.94 1.96 1.97
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14%
Mobile Users [%] 74% 82% 87% 91% 87% 87% 88% 89% 89% 89%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 91% 105% 124% 132% 135% 144% 151% 157% 162% 165%
Prepaid [%] 74% 84% 99% 104% 104% 111% 115% 119% 121% 123%
Postpaid [%] 17% 21% 25% 28% 31% 33% 36% 39% 41% 42%
Mobile Data Users [%] 54% 72% 90% 104% 109% 120% 131% 141% 150% 158%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 176,487 206,250 246,347 265,662 274,630 297,672 316,008 331,599 344,614 354,663
Vivo [000] 51,744 60,293 71,554 76,137 77,050 82,468 86,177 92,078 95,406 97,835
Claro [000] 44,401 51,638 60,380 65,238 68,502 73,872 78,164 80,282 84,889 87,572
TIM [000] 41,102 51,015 64,083 70,343 73,884 81,236 87,253 91,931 93,567 95,990
Oi [000] 36,112 39,302 45,484 49,259 50,354 54,395 57,921 60,199 63,060 65,192
Nextel [000] 2,483 3,319 4,115 3,846 3,922 4,662 5,334 5,916 6,458 6,806
Others [000] 645 683 731 838 919 1,040 1,159 1,193 1,235 1,268
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 14 229 687 1,163 1,689 2,109 2,551
Porto Seguro [000] 0 0 0 14 142 399 639 873 1,050 1,222
Virgin [000] 0 0 0 0 80 268 488 763 991 1,245
Datora [000] 0 0 0 0 7 21 35 52 68 84
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 143,613 165,662 196,362 209,491 211,544 228,478 240,764 250,355 258,057 263,594
Postpaid [000] 32,874 40,589 49,984 56,171 63,086 69,194 75,244 81,244 86,558 91,069
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 43.8% 43.1% 52.3% 56.3% 57.1% 57.6% 57.8% 51.2% 52.4% 52.6%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 176,487 206,250 246,347 265,662 274,630 297,672 316,008 331,599 344,614 354,663
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 2,483 3,319 4,115 3,808 3,334 3,077 2,987 2,662 2,260 1,702
GSM [000] 32,755 25,447 16,385 10,808 6,192 3,292 1,589 903 517 295
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 10,954 8,472 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 52,873 62,394 75,207 79,043 73,734 66,863 61,899 50,819 33,163 14,184
GSM/EDGE [000] 59,140 74,950 99,955 103,476 85,760 76,689 70,297 58,777 48,742 45,248
CDMA 1X [000] 1,939 1,581 716 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 560 522 358 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 9,151 13,735 16,921 23,038 31,772 39,306 47,752 56,222 64,261 72,179
HSPA [000] 6,631 15,830 32,690 45,489 72,812 104,807 122,538 149,897 173,309 187,256
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 1,027 3,638 8,947 12,318 22,363 33,800
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 161,889 190,057 228,772 246,462 255,091 276,502 293,355 307,851 319,918 329,248
Business Subscriptions [000] 14,598 16,193 17,574 19,200 19,539 21,170 22,653 23,748 24,697 25,416
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 104,803 141,383 178,605 209,891 222,450 247,663 273,979 298,108 319,457 338,703
MMS [000] 26,997 30,613 34,489 36,396 37,075 39,293 41,713 43,738 45,179 46,213
Email [000] 23,539 35,773 47,855 56,768 62,205 71,470 80,425 85,884 89,600 92,567
Others [000] 28,352 32,481 38,019 40,180 40,706 43,239 44,984 46,260 47,114 47,518
Applications
Ringtones [000] 5,536 7,442 9,778 11,230 12,306 13,672 15,094 16,409 17,565 18,728
Graphics/Images [000] 4,267 5,736 7,536 8,696 9,529 10,638 11,519 11,967 12,187 12,417
Games [000] 1,192 1,672 2,396 3,101 3,846 5,003 6,373 8,025 9,842 12,154
Browsing/WAP [000] 8,803 14,510 21,663 45,162 64,263 84,837 105,894 126,671 146,116 165,273
Music [000] 3,218 6,772 10,920 14,720 17,499 18,588 17,760 16,772 15,687 14,530
Video [000] 2,446 5,146 8,605 12,064 14,965 18,654 21,783 24,687 26,535 29,494
Data cards/Modems [000] 2,647 4,267 5,849 6,774 8,054 12,205 16,120 20,228 24,468 28,728
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 97 117 121 130 136 144 151 159 167 175
Prepaid [units/month] 63 83 87 93 97 101 106 110 114 119
Postpaid [units/month] 240 262 254 270 274 285 298 311 325 341
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $12.93 $14.11 $13.53 $11.26 $10.83 $10.56 $10.48 $10.46 $10.49 $10.61
Vivo [US$/month] $13.62 $14.83 $14.37 $12.48 $11.99 $11.82 $11.77 $11.72 $11.64 $11.73
Claro [US$/month] $11.39 $11.11 $10.38 $8.57 $7.85 $7.70 $7.66 $7.72 $7.86 $8.04
TIM [US$/month] $12.81 $13.88 $12.36 $10.05 $9.88 $9.68 $9.61 $9.61 $9.71 $9.93
Oi [US$/month] $11.02 $12.84 $12.54 $11.43 $11.30 $10.78 $10.49 $10.37 $10.28 $10.26
Nextel [US$/month] $56.22 $69.87 $73.84 $49.00 $50.11 $47.57 $45.61 $43.24 $41.71 $40.76
Others [US$/month] $13.42 $14.54 $21.75 $14.01 $13.50 $12.75 $12.19 $12.00 $11.86 $11.84
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $7.20 $7.95 $7.84 $6.42 $5.96 $5.66 $5.55 $5.42 $5.33 $5.30
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $36.17 $40.02 $36.20 $29.75 $27.99 $26.88 $26.48 $26.30 $26.13 $26.22
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $11.15 $11.77 $10.57 $8.30 $7.52 $7.01 $6.72 $6.49 $6.32 $6.20
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.77 $2.34 $2.95 $2.96 $3.31 $3.55 $3.76 $3.97 $4.18 $4.41
Messaging [US$/month] $0.90 $0.98 $1.25 $1.16 $1.18 $1.15 $1.11 $1.10 $1.07 $1.02
SMS [US$/month] $0.77 $0.81 $1.01 $0.91 $0.92 $0.87 $0.83 $0.81 $0.78 $0.73
MMS [US$/month] $0.05 $0.07 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04
Email [US$/month] $0.07 $0.09 $0.18 $0.18 $0.20 $0.22 $0.23 $0.24 $0.24 $0.24
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Applications [US$/month] $0.88 $1.36 $1.69 $1.80 $2.13 $2.41 $2.65 $2.87 $3.11 $3.40
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.03 $0.05 $0.06 $0.05 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03
Games [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.28 $0.47 $0.58 $0.81 $1.12 $1.29 $1.38 $1.49 $1.62 $1.80
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.48 $0.75 $0.93 $0.81 $0.82 $0.93 $1.09 $1.21 $1.33 $1.44
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $17.46 $18.20 $17.59 $13.74 $12.99 $12.15 $11.53 $11.40 $11.23 $11.14
Non-3G [US$/month] $12.35 $13.54 $12.64 $10.51 $9.80 $9.31 $9.28 $8.96 $8.72 $8.60
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $25,125 $32,396 $36,697 $34,587 $35,098 $36,274 $38,583 $40,649 $42,576 $44,533
Voice Revenue [US$m] $21,628 $27,026 $28,691 $25,508 $24,365 $24,067 $24,742 $25,209 $25,631 $26,013
Data Revenue [US$m] $3,497 $5,370 $8,006 $9,079 $10,733 $12,207 $13,841 $15,440 $16,945 $18,520
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $1,766 $2,248 $3,405 $3,562 $3,837 $3,933 $4,101 $4,290 $4,330 $4,273
SMS [US$m] $1,518 $1,866 $2,738 $2,811 $2,982 $3,000 $3,056 $3,165 $3,153 $3,053
MMS [US$m] $108 $166 $169 $167 $171 $169 $173 $175 $176 $177
Email [US$m] $130 $200 $477 $563 $661 $742 $850 $927 $978 $1,020
Others [US$m] $10 $16 $21 $21 $22 $22 $23 $23 $23 $23
Applications Revenue [US$m] $1,730 $3,122 $4,601 $5,517 $6,896 $8,273 $9,739 $11,150 $12,615 $14,248
Ringtones [US$m] $69 $106 $155 $167 $179 $179 $178 $172 $162 $148
Graphics/Images [US$m] $92 $141 $201 $201 $197 $183 $173 $159 $142 $129
Games [US$m] $29 $27 $41 $49 $61 $73 $91 $111 $133 $159
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $559 $1,074 $1,572 $2,474 $3,623 $4,421 $5,063 $5,774 $6,570 $7,536
Music [US$m] $23 $35 $70 $95 $123 $136 $137 $129 $121 $112
Video [US$m] $14 $21 $41 $54 $68 $79 $90 $97 $100 $104
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $944 $1,718 $2,522 $2,478 $2,645 $3,201 $4,007 $4,708 $5,387 $6,060
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
CHILE
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 16,929 17,094 17,248 17,400 17,560 17,710 17,870 18,020 18,180 18,350
Households [000] 4,482 4,525 4,568 4,612 4,656 4,701 4,746 4,792 4,838 4,884
Businesses [000] 675 744 759 774 790 806 818 826 834 843
Nominal GDP [US$m] $172,340 $217,560 $251,190 $268,300 $283,600 $293,400 $310,200 $332,400 $357,100 $383,800
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $10,180 $12,727 $14,563 $15,420 $16,150 $16,570 $17,360 $18,450 $19,640 $20,920
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $15,100 $16,010 $17,130 $18,220 $19,180 $20,260 $21,480 $22,790 $24,220 $25,700
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 1.48 1.41 3.34 3.01 1.70 3.10 3.10 3.30 3.00 3.00
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 560 510 484 486 492 515 527 533 539 545
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 7%
Mobile Users [%] 77% 82% 84% 86% 82% 83% 83% 84% 84% 83%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 104% 125% 142% 153% 153% 159% 165% 170% 175% 180%
Prepaid [%] 76% 90% 103% 112% 111% 116% 121% 125% 128% 132%
Postpaid [%] 28% 35% 39% 41% 42% 43% 44% 46% 47% 48%
Mobile Data Users [%] 68% 93% 112% 128% 135% 141% 147% 152% 156% 161%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 17,622 21,298 24,510 26,657 26,869 28,182 29,432 30,656 31,840 33,070
Movistar [000] 7,525 8,794 9,548 10,040 10,413 10,770 11,145 11,537 11,924 12,324
ENTEL PCS [000] 6,457 7,568 9,347 10,106 10,297 10,727 11,116 11,488 11,848 12,223
Claro [000] 0 0 0 138 59 160 235 294 341 381
Nextel [000] 3,597 4,871 5,537 6,174 5,862 6,233 6,592 6,942 7,286 7,651
VTR [000] 44 65 78 198 238 292 344 394 442 491
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 1 155 359 623 868 1,077 1,254 1,404
Virgin [000] 0 0 0 150 301 437 536 598 637 665
GTD (Telsur) [000] 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Falabella [000] 0 0 0 0 46 162 293 418 526 608
Others [000] 0 0 0 4 11 21 36 57 85 124
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 12,946 15,374 17,708 19,451 19,560 20,601 21,560 22,452 23,325 24,241
Postpaid [000] 4,677 5,924 6,802 7,206 7,309 7,581 7,872 8,204 8,516 8,829
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 27.0% 28.7% 44.1% 47.3% 52.5% 50.1% 49.0% 48.3% 47.7% 47.0%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 17,622 21,298 24,510 26,657 26,869 28,182 29,432 30,656 31,840 33,070
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 44 65 78 163 158 111 60 20 4 4
GSM [000] 1,598 1,673 1,514 900 94 129 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 183 49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 7,535 7,773 6,734 5,367 3,616 2,173 708 69 0 0
GSM/EDGE [000] 4,895 6,785 8,219 8,532 8,142 7,471 6,716 5,003 3,057 1,479
CDMA 1X [000] 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 1,873 2,755 3,954 5,856 6,935 8,138 9,227 10,161 11,388 12,620
HSPA [000] 1,460 2,197 4,011 5,840 7,906 9,881 11,920 14,177 15,826 17,133
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 19 279 800 1,225 1,565 1,834
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 16,160 19,467 22,302 24,162 24,135 25,255 26,365 27,477 28,558 29,684
Business Subscriptions [000] 1,463 1,831 2,208 2,495 2,734 2,928 3,068 3,179 3,282 3,386
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 11,517 15,882 19,376 22,299 23,654 25,021 26,183 27,318 28,412 29,541
MMS [000] 1,767 2,343 2,694 2,961 3,044 3,257 3,469 3,686 3,885 4,096
Email [000] 603 1,129 1,754 2,409 2,963 3,539 4,081 4,607 5,130 5,658
Others [000] 1,060 1,462 1,850 2,174 2,366 2,656 2,940 3,246 3,506 3,787
Applications
Ringtones [000] 1,142 1,586 1,899 2,118 2,188 2,352 2,502 2,606 2,675 2,778
Graphics/Images [000] 213 277 338 387 408 444 480 515 548 582
Games [000] 931 1,413 1,924 2,385 2,670 3,024 3,367 3,704 4,031 4,358
Browsing/WAP [000] 1,496 2,769 4,302 5,951 7,498 9,595 12,024 14,778 18,112 22,198
Music [000] 530 1,089 2,068 3,037 3,827 5,018 6,550 8,528 11,072 14,374
Video [000] 795 1,597 2,696 3,813 4,766 5,949 7,144 8,483 9,692 11,073
Data cards/Modems [000] 632 965 1,246 1,495 1,635 1,844 2,050 2,253 2,451 2,667
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 155 162 163 169 174 176 178 180 182 183
Prepaid [units/month] 84 88 89 89 89 90 91 91 92 93
Postpaid [units/month] 352 361 356 382 401 410 417 423 426 429
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 18 23 29 34 33 32 32 32 31 30
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $15.67 $15.73 $15.90 $16.03 $15.80 $15.16 $14.99 $14.91 $14.92 $15.26
Movistar [US$/month] $15.94 $16.02 $16.22 $15.68 $14.80 $14.03 $13.87 $13.97 $14.20 $14.74
ENTEL PCS [US$/month] $18.04 $18.20 $17.80 $18.46 $18.57 $17.75 $17.62 $17.25 $16.97 $17.03
Claro [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $13.36 $13.36 $13.49 $12.49 $12.20 $12.04 $11.99 $12.08
Nextel [US$/month] $10.35 $10.88 $12.06 $12.43 $12.64 $12.40 $12.24 $12.39 $12.61 $13.11
VTR [US$/month] $31.53 $29.98 $29.72 $23.46 $20.90 $21.07 $20.58 $20.10 $19.57 $19.73
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $7.32 $7.30 $7.33 $7.14 $6.98 $6.67 $6.53 $6.46 $6.43 $6.57
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $38.63 $38.24 $38.18 $39.62 $39.49 $38.04 $38.09 $38.05 $38.17 $39.09
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $13.34 $13.02 $12.71 $12.66 $12.08 $11.02 $10.42 $9.89 $9.39 $9.08
Data ARPS [US$/month] $2.32 $2.71 $3.19 $3.37 $3.72 $4.14 $4.58 $5.02 $5.53 $6.17
Messaging [US$/month] $1.08 $0.77 $0.73 $0.59 $0.55 $0.55 $0.56 $0.55 $0.55 $0.55
SMS [US$/month] $0.80 $0.53 $0.49 $0.36 $0.31 $0.30 $0.29 $0.27 $0.25 $0.24
MMS [US$/month] $0.09 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06
Email [US$/month] $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.12 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 $0.17
Others [US$/month] $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.07 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07
Applications [US$/month] $1.24 $1.94 $2.46 $2.78 $3.18 $3.59 $4.02 $4.48 $4.98 $5.63
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.12 $0.09 $0.10 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.07 $0.08 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10
Games [US$/month] $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.26 $0.38 $0.51 $0.65 $0.84 $1.03 $1.25 $1.50 $1.78 $2.16
Music [US$/month] $0.05 $0.09 $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.18 $0.22 $0.27 $0.33 $0.40
Video [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.06 $0.10 $0.14 $0.19 $0.25 $0.31 $0.38 $0.45
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.64 $1.18 $1.50 $1.65 $1.80 $1.91 $2.02 $2.11 $2.20 $2.33
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $66.03 $53.48 $39.28 $30.46 $24.80 $21.22 $19.49 $18.32 $17.50 $17.22
Non-3G [US$/month] $6.81 $5.52 $6.72 $7.03 $6.95 $6.26 $5.78 $4.96 $3.71 $2.09
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $3,049 $3,673 $4,371 $4,921 $5,073 $5,006 $5,183 $5,375 $5,594 $5,941
Voice Revenue [US$m] $2,597 $3,040 $3,493 $3,888 $3,878 $3,638 $3,601 $3,564 $3,523 $3,538
Data Revenue [US$m] $452 $633 $877 $1,034 $1,195 $1,368 $1,582 $1,811 $2,072 $2,404
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $210 $180 $201 $180 $175 $182 $193 $197 $205 $212
SMS [US$m] $156 $123 $135 $111 $99 $98 $100 $96 $95 $93
MMS [US$m] $18 $17 $18 $19 $21 $21 $21 $22 $23 $24
Email [US$m] $18 $20 $26 $29 $35 $41 $47 $53 $60 $67
Others [US$m] $18 $20 $22 $21 $21 $22 $25 $25 $27 $28
Applications Revenue [US$m] $242 $453 $676 $854 $1,020 $1,186 $1,389 $1,614 $1,867 $2,191
Ringtones [US$m] $23 $21 $26 $24 $22 $22 $23 $22 $22 $22
Graphics/Images [US$m] $14 $18 $26 $29 $30 $31 $33 $35 $37 $37
Games [US$m] $18 $21 $26 $29 $32 $37 $41 $45 $49 $52
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $50 $89 $140 $201 $268 $341 $432 $539 $667 $842
Music [US$m] $9 $20 $26 $36 $45 $59 $76 $98 $124 $156
Video [US$m] $5 $8 $18 $30 $46 $64 $87 $113 $143 $175
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $124 $276 $413 $505 $577 $632 $697 $762 $826 $908
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
COLOMBIA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 44,979 45,510 46,045 46,582 47,121 47,662 48,203 48,748 49,292 49,834
Households [000] 11,990 12,150 12,320 12,500 12,670 12,850 13,030 13,210 13,474 13,744
Businesses [000] 625 636 648 660 673 686 699 712 725 739
Nominal GDP [US$m] $233,890 $286,950 $336,370 $370,280 $382,400 $406,300 $436,400 $463,800 $485,000 $506,100
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $5,036 $6,095 $7,051 $7,663 $7,810 $8,200 $8,710 $9,150 $9,460 $9,760
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $8,850 $9,180 $9,850 $10,320 $10,760 $11,310 $11,880 $12,490 $13,170 $13,850
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 4.20 2.27 3.42 3.17 2.20 3.00 3.00 2.80 3.00 3.10
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 2,158 1,899 1,848 1,798 1,866 1,903 1,918 1,950 1,993 2,043
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9%
Mobile Users [%] 70% 74% 76% 79% 77% 81% 81% 81% 82% 84%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 92% 98% 101% 106% 102% 108% 110% 111% 112% 113%
Prepaid [%] 77% 82% 82% 85% 80% 84% 84% 84% 84% 83%
Postpaid [%] 14% 16% 19% 21% 22% 24% 25% 27% 28% 30%
Mobile Data Users [%] 36% 63% 75% 92% 92% 98% 101% 103% 105% 107%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 41,289 44,616 46,359 49,219 48,299 51,475 52,783 54,012 55,207 56,313
Claro [000] 27,674 29,264 28,819 30,371 28,582 30,562 31,283 31,852 32,336 32,732
Movistar [000] 8,965 10,005 11,391 11,703 11,579 11,823 11,941 12,175 12,459 12,747
Tigo [000] 4,517 5,209 5,991 6,942 7,846 8,686 9,075 9,424 9,760 10,081
Avantel [000] 134 138 158 153 176 224 262 295 325 350
Others [000] 0 0 0 49 116 180 222 267 326 403
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 7 137 402 418 669 960 1,204 1,435 1,646 1,825
EPM [000] 7 60 112 48 0 0 0 0 0 0
UFF [000] 0 53 249 329 406 481 552 621 686 749
ETB [000] 0 24 41 41 45 55 65 75 84 93
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 34,837 37,151 37,743 39,646 37,880 40,046 40,496 40,852 41,183 41,456
Postpaid [000] 6,452 7,465 8,617 9,573 10,419 11,429 12,287 13,161 14,024 14,857
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 49.5% 49.8% 61.2% 60.0% 62.2% 56.3% 56.3% 56.4% 56.4% 56.4%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 41,289 44,616 46,359 49,219 48,299 51,475 52,783 54,012 55,207 56,313
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 134 138 158 153 176 224 251 236 244 252
GSM [000] 5,090 3,584 2,676 1,888 869 389 198 101 51 26
TDMA [000] 553 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 23,458 16,344 11,117 8,378 6,027 4,156 2,455 1,069 546 240
GSM/EDGE [000] 5,088 9,555 11,686 14,405 12,074 8,971 6,013 4,240 2,081 984
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 5,401 11,681 15,539 16,343 17,761 18,982 22,336 22,689 21,697 19,969
HSPA [000] 1,458 3,314 5,183 8,052 11,180 18,264 20,446 23,496 26,764 29,274
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 212 487 1,083 2,182 3,824 5,568
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 39,150 42,378 43,996 46,749 45,775 48,734 49,919 51,027 52,097 53,084
Business Subscriptions [000] 2,139 2,238 2,364 2,470 2,524 2,740 2,863 2,985 3,110 3,229
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 16,065 28,539 34,306 43,067 43,469 46,791 48,459 50,084 51,703 53,267
MMS [000] 1,668 2,163 2,091 2,053 1,994 1,913 1,805 1,699 1,598 1,467
Email [000] 689 1,340 3,201 5,778 8,505 12,690 16,916 20,772 23,354 24,536
Others [000] 215 335 603 736 794 927 1,056 1,188 1,325 1,464
Applications
Ringtones [000] 2,098 2,381 2,350 2,320 2,163 2,121 2,066 2,009 1,950 1,890
Graphics/Images [000] 891 1,338 1,901 2,559 2,898 3,088 3,167 3,241 3,312 3,379
Games [000] 527 966 1,315 1,675 1,891 2,216 2,454 2,686 2,915 3,138
Browsing/WAP [000] 612 989 1,533 1,926 2,173 2,663 3,059 3,457 3,864 4,280
Music [000] 860 1,301 1,892 2,812 3,587 4,588 5,437 6,319 7,232 8,165
Video [000] 263 384 759 1,289 1,518 1,905 2,217 2,539 2,871 3,210
Data cards/Modems [000] 500 1,002 1,255 1,283 1,322 1,480 1,593 1,712 1,837 1,968
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 159 175 190 201 211 219 227 235 242 248
Prepaid [units/month] 106 115 127 134 138 140 145 148 152 153
Postpaid [units/month] 466 483 484 486 496 500 506 511 516 521
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 12 18 25 31 34 36 34 33 31 29
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $8.55 $9.07 $9.75 $10.73 $11.30 $11.71 $11.97 $12.25 $12.49 $12.63
Claro [US$/month] $8.35 $8.33 $9.71 $11.19 $11.95 $12.39 $12.58 $12.81 $12.98 $13.11
Movistar [US$/month] $8.20 $9.53 $8.81 $9.22 $9.65 $10.17 $10.55 $10.82 $10.95 $11.00
Tigo [US$/month] $10.04 $11.99 $11.25 $10.94 $11.04 $11.17 $11.39 $11.71 $12.02 $12.32
Avantel [US$/month] $28.37 $28.49 $27.84 $27.05 $25.39 $23.99 $22.69 $22.07 $21.96 $21.79
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $12.07 $7.33 $11.75 $14.05 $20.19 $29.11 $25.86
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $4.75 $4.81 $4.89 $5.69 $5.80 $5.86 $5.92 $5.92 $5.91 $5.89
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $30.45 $31.14 $32.37 $32.16 $32.63 $32.57 $32.49 $32.49 $32.34 $31.93
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $7.82 $7.74 $7.71 $8.43 $8.63 $8.73 $8.75 $8.81 $8.88 $8.90
Data ARPS [US$/month] $0.73 $1.33 $2.04 $2.30 $2.67 $2.98 $3.22 $3.44 $3.62 $3.73
Messaging [US$/month] $0.48 $0.74 $1.19 $1.36 $1.59 $1.78 $1.90 $2.00 $2.04 $2.00
SMS [US$/month] $0.45 $0.67 $1.01 $1.07 $1.15 $1.15 $1.07 $0.98 $0.89 $0.81
MMS [US$/month] $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00
Email [US$/month] $0.01 $0.05 $0.13 $0.23 $0.37 $0.55 $0.74 $0.91 $1.02 $1.06
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.03 $0.05 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11 $0.12 $0.13
Applications [US$/month] $0.25 $0.60 $0.85 $0.94 $1.08 $1.19 $1.32 $1.44 $1.58 $1.74
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.04 $0.07 $0.09 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.02 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06
Games [US$/month] $0.01 $0.04 $0.07 $0.09 $0.10 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.15
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.03 $0.07 $0.13 $0.18 $0.23 $0.29 $0.35 $0.42 $0.49 $0.57
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11 $0.12 $0.14
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 $0.21 $0.24
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.15 $0.33 $0.45 $0.45 $0.45 $0.46 $0.48 $0.50 $0.52 $0.54
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $24.07 $24.17 $19.50 $16.10 $15.82 $15.22 $14.60 $14.22 $14.18 $13.58
Non-3G [US$/month] $6.97 $4.47 $3.45 $5.93 $5.87 $4.89 $3.50 $3.02 $2.62 $1.43
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $4,247 $4,677 $5,321 $6,155 $6,611 $7,010 $7,485 $7,852 $8,187 $8,451
Voice Revenue [US$m] $3,885 $3,990 $4,207 $4,838 $5,050 $5,228 $5,472 $5,646 $5,816 $5,953
Data Revenue [US$m] $362 $686 $1,114 $1,317 $1,561 $1,781 $2,013 $2,206 $2,371 $2,499
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $238 $380 $648 $779 $931 $1,067 $1,190 $1,282 $1,335 $1,337
SMS [US$m] $226 $343 $551 $614 $672 $686 $667 $629 $586 $539
MMS [US$m] $2 $5 $6 $5 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3
Email [US$m] $7 $24 $73 $129 $215 $329 $461 $581 $667 $707
Others [US$m] $4 $8 $19 $31 $39 $48 $58 $69 $79 $89
Applications Revenue [US$m] $124 $307 $466 $538 $630 $714 $823 $924 $1,036 $1,161
Ringtones [US$m] $19 $38 $48 $42 $38 $34 $32 $30 $29 $28
Graphics/Images [US$m] $8 $19 $27 $31 $33 $35 $35 $35 $36 $39
Games [US$m] $5 $21 $39 $51 $60 $69 $78 $86 $94 $101
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $13 $36 $72 $103 $134 $172 $220 $268 $322 $383
Music [US$m] $5 $12 $20 $27 $37 $47 $58 $69 $81 $93
Video [US$m] $2 $9 $15 $25 $67 $82 $100 $118 $136 $158
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $72 $172 $245 $260 $261 $275 $299 $318 $339 $360
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
COSTA RICA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 4,605 4,675 4,746 4,816 4,890 4,960 5,030 5,080 5,131 5,182
Households [000] 1,197 1,266 1,298 1,323 1,350 1,377 1,404 1,433 1,461 1,490
Businesses [000] 58 62 63 66 69 72 75 79 82 86
Nominal GDP [US$m] $29,383 $36,298 $41,031 $45,107 $49,639 $53,125 $57,810 $62,734 $68,517 $74,761
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $6,381 $7,764 $8,646 $9,365 $10,150 $10,710 $11,490 $12,350 $13,350 $14,430
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $10,146 $10,615 $11,135 $11,737 $12,130 $12,680 $13,280 $14,010 $14,800 $15,620
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 7.84 5.66 4.88 4.50 5.50 4.30 5.50 5.50 5.40 5.30
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 573 526 506 503 500 505 510 514 517 520
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 34% 33% 32% 31% 29% 28% 26% 25% 23% 22%
Mobile Users [%] 35% 55% 74% 82% 84% 85% 86% 86% 85% 85%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 40% 61% 87% 112% 135% 151% 161% 167% 169% 170%
Prepaid [%] 0% 29% 60% 87% 103% 115% 123% 128% 130% 130%
Postpaid [%] 40% 32% 27% 25% 31% 35% 38% 39% 40% 40%
Mobile Data Users [%] 33% 35% 51% 70% 89% 106% 117% 119% 120% 119%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 1,826 2,860 4,122 5,378 6,582 7,480 8,101 8,468 8,690 8,802
ICE [000] 1,826 2,860 3,860 4,518 4,732 4,803 4,764 4,719 4,666 4,601
Movistar [000] 0 0 116 376 903 1,321 1,678 1,962 2,171 2,302
Claro [000] 0 0 146 484 948 1,356 1,659 1,786 1,853 1,900
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 164 268 345 409 458 494 521 541
Tuyo Movil [000] 0 0 83 161 225 274 308 334 353 366
Fullmovil [000] 0 0 81 107 120 135 150 160 169 175
MVNO3 [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 0 1,373 2,841 4,190 5,044 5,728 6,210 6,491 6,659 6,732
Postpaid [000] 1,826 1,487 1,281 1,188 1,538 1,752 1,891 1,977 2,031 2,070
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 16.8% 26.7% 32.0% 35.2% 35.8% 35.4% 35.0% 34.6% 34.0% 33.6%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 1,826 2,860 4,122 5,378 6,582 7,480 8,101 8,468 8,690 8,802
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 1,241 1,031 579 316 0 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 149 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 274 572 463 136 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/EDGE [000] 128 601 1,672 2,543 3,181 3,009 2,676 2,157 1,556 1,016
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 34 629 1,390 2,168 2,744 3,266 3,573 3,776 3,826 3,842
HSPA [000] 0 0 18 215 657 1,204 1,752 2,210 2,550 2,830
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 326 757 1,114
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 1,750 2,741 3,948 5,146 6,295 7,150 7,741 8,088 8,295 8,399
Business Subscriptions [000] 75 119 173 232 287 329 360 380 394 404
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
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© 2013 Client Confidential
Messaging
SMS [000] 1,511 1,622 2,432 3,388 4,344 5,236 5,865 6,069 6,166 6,184
MMS [000] 61 114 330 430 494 546 580 594 597 593
Email [000] 40 91 186 328 501 666 815 923 1,013 1,074
Others [000] 0 4 10 27 66 112 162 212 261 308
Applications
Ringtones [000] 159 234 371 532 717 896 1,067 1,227 1,385 1,544
Graphics/Images [000] 60 92 161 296 362 419 446 466 478 484
Games [000] 23 34 50 65 80 94 102 107 109 111
Browsing/WAP [000] 89 192 412 726 1,121 1,646 2,121 2,549 2,943 3,309
Music [000] 79 90 185 319 430 538 630 709 786 863
Video [000] 14 32 60 107 168 239 312 381 450 520
Data cards/Modems [000] 1 80 141 193 248 304 355 397 432 460
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 175 163 151 135 145 146 147 149 150 151
Prepaid [units/month] 0 130 143 144 133 132 132 132 133 134
Postpaid [units/month] 175 177 179 181 187 192 198 203 206 209
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 328 358 320 253 147 116 103 99 93 88
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $16.12 $17.41 $16.22 $13.53 $12.34 $11.98 $11.66 $11.44 $11.24 $10.89
ICE [US$/month] $16.12 $17.41 $16.59 $14.61 $13.99 $14.44 $14.65 $14.70 $14.52 $14.00
Movistar [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $6.98 $5.71 $7.00 $7.40 $7.63 $7.86 $8.09 $8.17
Claro [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $6.48 $5.37 $6.43 $6.23 $6.14 $6.23 $6.38 $6.43
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $0.00 $4.20 $4.26 $4.18 $4.09 $3.81 $3.61 $3.47 $3.30 $3.06
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $16.12 $22.89 $34.42 $40.17 $40.28 $38.71 $38.01 $37.59 $37.29 $36.43
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $15.31 $16.38 $14.57 $11.82 $10.68 $10.12 $9.57 $9.13 $8.73 $8.22
Data ARPS [US$/month] $0.81 $1.03 $1.65 $1.72 $1.66 $1.86 $2.08 $2.30 $2.52 $2.67
Messaging [US$/month] $0.58 $0.67 $0.58 $0.42 $0.31 $0.29 $0.29 $0.30 $0.31 $0.31
SMS [US$/month] $0.57 $0.64 $0.52 $0.32 $0.19 $0.15 $0.12 $0.11 $0.10 $0.09
MMS [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Email [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.05 $0.08 $0.11 $0.13 $0.14 $0.16 $0.17 $0.18
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03
Applications [US$/month] $0.23 $0.36 $1.07 $1.30 $1.35 $1.56 $1.79 $2.01 $2.21 $2.36
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.05 $0.05 $0.15 $0.16 $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 $0.20 $0.21 $0.22
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.04 $0.04 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.04
Games [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.06 $0.12 $0.42 $0.52 $0.61 $0.77 $0.95 $1.10 $1.24 $1.35
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.04 $0.05 $0.07 $0.08 $0.10 $0.11 $0.13 $0.15
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.05 $0.10 $0.39 $0.48 $0.42 $0.44 $0.47 $0.50 $0.52 $0.53
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $40.30 $43.53 $30.71 $20.43 $16.38 $14.50 $13.41 $12.58 $11.92 $11.22
Non-3G [US$/month] $15.88 $13.11 $10.25 $8.96 $8.55 $8.77 $8.60 $8.66 $8.80 $8.93
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $334 $490 $679 $771 $885 $1,011 $1,090 $1,137 $1,158 $1,142
Voice Revenue [US$m] $317 $461 $610 $673 $766 $854 $895 $908 $898 $863
Data Revenue [US$m] $17 $29 $69 $98 $119 $157 $195 $229 $259 $280
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $12 $19 $24 $24 $22 $25 $27 $30 $32 $32
SMS [US$m] $12 $18 $22 $19 $14 $12 $11 $11 $10 $9
MMS [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Email [US$m] $0 $1 $2 $5 $8 $11 $14 $16 $18 $19
Others [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $4
Applications Revenue [US$m] $5 $10 $45 $74 $97 $132 $168 $199 $228 $247
Ringtones [US$m] $1 $1 $6 $9 $12 $15 $17 $19 $21 $23
Graphics/Images [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $4 $4 $5 $5
Games [US$m] $1 $1 $2 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $1 $3 $18 $30 $43 $65 $88 $109 $128 $142
Music [US$m] $0 $0 $1 $3 $5 $7 $9 $11 $14 $16
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $1 $3 $16 $27 $30 $37 $44 $49 $54 $56
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 9,303 9,445 9,571 9,696 9,821 9,948 10,070 10,200 10,320 10,440
Households [000] 2,639 2,665 2,692 2,719 2,746 2,774 2,801 2,829 2,858 2,886
Businesses [000] 337 341 345 350 355 359 364 369 373 378
Nominal GDP [US$m] $46,485 $50,980 $55,433 $58,898 $59,285 $61,941 $65,621 $70,003 $74,439 $79,059
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $4,997 $5,398 $5,790 $6,070 $6,040 $6,230 $6,510 $6,860 $7,210 $7,570
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $10,230 $10,980 $11,550 $12,050 $12,410 $12,970 $13,600 $14,360 $15,150 $15,940
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 1.44 6.33 8.46 3.70 5.00 4.40 4.40 4.50 4.40 4.00
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 36.11 37.31 38.23 39.34 41.80 43.34 44.57 45.69 46.76 47.65
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11%
Mobile Users [%] 40% 40% 39% 73% 74% 76% 78% 79% 80% 81%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 91% 92% 97% 94% 96% 98% 101% 103% 105% 106%
Prepaid [%] 76% 77% 78% 79% 81% 82% 84% 86% 88% 89%
Postpaid [%] 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17%
Mobile Data Users [%] 59% 67% 70% 72% 74% 78% 81% 85% 89% 93%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 8,559 8,837 9,060 9,143 9,446 9,759 10,126 10,482 10,807 11,066
Claro [000] 4,742 4,850 4,766 4,889 5,067 5,319 5,538 5,732 5,904 6,068
Tricom [000] 425 435 442 437 437 439 440 441 441 434
Viva (Trilogy Dominicana) [000] 581 667 746 603 542 522 524 538 556 576
Orange Dominicana [000] 2,811 2,885 3,106 3,214 3,400 3,480 3,624 3,772 3,906 3,989
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 7,213 7,446 7,647 7,705 7,954 8,207 8,508 8,802 9,069 9,279
Postpaid [000] 1,346 1,391 1,413 1,437 1,491 1,553 1,618 1,680 1,738 1,787
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 56.7% 56.7% 56.2% 55.2% 54.3% 53.6% 53.0% 52.3% 51.6% 50.9%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 8,559 8,837 9,060 9,143 9,446 9,759 10,126 10,482 10,807 11,066
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 1,265 923 714 385 203 31 19 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 990 389 314 269 254 240 225 214 203 194
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 1,920 2,090 1,997 1,755 1,647 1,392 1,153 1,089 1,113 1,157
GSM/EDGE [000] 2,924 3,665 3,907 4,092 4,117 4,003 3,815 3,655 3,525 3,543
CDMA 1X [000] 348 207 186 158 124 111 110 108 105 102
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 521 247 149 101 95 106 119 119 132 139
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 442 950 1,208 1,570 2,006 2,555 3,059 3,331 3,475 3,591
HSPA [000] 148 366 584 812 999 1,317 1,605 1,901 2,135 2,201
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 1 1 3 21 65 117 140
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 7,844 8,072 8,272 8,319 8,563 8,807 9,096 9,370 9,610 9,785
Business Subscriptions [000] 715 765 788 823 883 952 1,030 1,112 1,197 1,281
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 5,445 6,336 6,716 6,985 7,253 7,718 8,128 8,709 9,203 9,660
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MMS [000] 413 496 549 549 538 528 521 512 502 488
Email [000] 283 355 426 466 529 576 638 702 756 775
Others [000] 379 444 492 503 510 527 547 565 578 592
Applications
Ringtones [000] 507 590 686 690 761 801 846 892 940 963
Graphics/Images [000] 320 366 400 424 454 464 477 489 499 506
Games [000] 352 418 483 493 509 526 543 555 562 576
Browsing/WAP [000] 431 489 568 567 580 593 610 625 638 646
Music [000] 216 289 372 429 487 539 590 636 676 709
Video [000] 112 155 203 215 227 234 253 273 292 310
Data cards/Modems [000] 441 611 751 869 987 1,122 1,280 1,431 1,594 1,763
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 106 111 114 116 117 118 119 120 120 121
Prepaid [units/month] 56 60 63 64 64 65 65 65 65 65
Postpaid [units/month] 376 383 390 395 399 402 404 407 409 412
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 25 30 40 49 58 68 79 91 105 118
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $14.94 $14.21 $14.31 $14.55 $14.70 $14.81 $14.95 $15.14 $15.32 $15.47
Claro [US$/month] $13.00 $12.50 $13.00 $13.55 $13.54 $13.38 $13.32 $13.41 $13.46 $13.55
Tricom [US$/month] $12.00 $13.20 $14.30 $14.70 $15.20 $15.48 $15.67 $16.02 $16.36 $16.73
Viva (Trilogy Dominicana) [US$/month] $13.00 $14.00 $15.00 $15.68 $17.19 $18.49 $19.46 $20.25 $20.93 $21.50
Orange Dominicana [US$/month] $19.02 $17.29 $16.25 $15.82 $15.93 $16.32 $16.68 $16.93 $17.22 $17.39
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $9.52 $9.59 $9.73 $9.81 $9.78 $9.61 $9.57 $9.59 $9.62 $9.48
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $44.19 $38.94 $38.93 $40.06 $40.98 $42.43 $43.27 $44.26 $45.13 $46.67
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $11.61 $10.19 $9.44 $9.21 $9.02 $8.84 $8.67 $8.58 $8.49 $8.40
Data ARPS [US$/month] $3.33 $4.02 $4.87 $5.34 $5.68 $5.97 $6.28 $6.56 $6.83 $7.07
Messaging [US$/month] $1.69 $2.00 $2.36 $2.59 $2.77 $2.95 $3.11 $3.27 $3.41 $3.51
SMS [US$/month] $1.32 $1.50 $1.71 $1.87 $2.03 $2.18 $2.33 $2.47 $2.60 $2.69
MMS [US$/month] $0.05 $0.06 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10 $0.10
Email [US$/month] $0.12 $0.16 $0.20 $0.22 $0.24 $0.25 $0.27 $0.28 $0.29 $0.30
Others [US$/month] $0.20 $0.28 $0.37 $0.40 $0.41 $0.41 $0.41 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42
Applications [US$/month] $1.65 $2.02 $2.51 $2.75 $2.91 $3.03 $3.16 $3.29 $3.42 $3.56
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.21 $0.25 $0.30 $0.31 $0.32 $0.33 $0.34 $0.34 $0.35 $0.36
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.15 $0.15 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14
Games [US$/month] $0.10 $0.13 $0.16 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.13 $0.16 $0.18 $0.19 $0.19 $0.18 $0.18 $0.17 $0.17 $0.17
Music [US$/month] $0.09 $0.12 $0.15 $0.17 $0.18 $0.19 $0.20 $0.21 $0.21 $0.21
Video [US$/month] $0.05 $0.07 $0.10 $0.11 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.96 $1.19 $1.49 $1.65 $1.78 $1.88 $2.01 $2.12 $2.24 $2.37
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $44.83 $36.94 $36.49 $36.96 $36.89 $31.84 $28.18 $26.34 $25.90 $25.68
Non-3G [US$/month] $10.51 $10.08 $8.91 $7.35 $5.17 $4.86 $4.47 $4.12 $3.42 $3.22
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $1,410 $1,483 $1,536 $1,589 $1,639 $1,707 $1,783 $1,871 $1,957 $2,031
Voice Revenue [US$m] $1,096 $1,063 $1,013 $1,006 $1,006 $1,018 $1,034 $1,061 $1,085 $1,103
Data Revenue [US$m] $315 $420 $523 $583 $633 $688 $749 $811 $873 $928
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $159 $209 $253 $283 $309 $339 $371 $404 $436 $461
SMS [US$m] $124 $156 $184 $205 $226 $252 $279 $306 $332 $354
MMS [US$m] $5 $7 $9 $10 $11 $11 $12 $12 $13 $13
Email [US$m] $12 $16 $21 $24 $27 $29 $32 $35 $38 $39
Others [US$m] $19 $29 $39 $43 $45 $47 $49 $51 $53 $55
Applications Revenue [US$m] $155 $211 $270 $300 $324 $349 $378 $407 $437 $467
Ringtones [US$m] $20 $26 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $43 $45 $47
Graphics/Images [US$m] $9 $12 $15 $15 $16 $17 $17 $18 $18 $18
Games [US$m] $10 $13 $18 $19 $19 $20 $20 $21 $21 $22
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $12 $16 $19 $21 $21 $21 $21 $22 $22 $22
Music [US$m] $9 $12 $16 $18 $20 $22 $24 $25 $27 $28
Video [US$m] $5 $7 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16 $18 $19
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $90 $124 $160 $180 $199 $217 $239 $262 $286 $312
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
ECUADOR
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 14,005 14,480 14,690 14,900 15,100 15,310 15,510 15,700 15,910 16,130
Households [000] 3,049 3,067 3,083 3,099 3,115 3,146 3,177 3,209 3,241 3,273
Businesses [000] 345 349 353 358 364 369 374 380 385 391
Nominal GDP [US$m] $62,520 $67,514 $76,770 $84,040 $90,390 $97,300 $104,200 $111,900 $118,500 $126,800
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $4,464 $4,660 $5,230 $5,640 $5,980 $6,360 $6,720 $7,130 $7,450 $7,860
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $8,710 $8,780 $9,510 $10,030 $10,450 $10,940 $11,490 $12,200 $12,870 $13,490
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 5.16 3.55 4.47 5.10 2.60 3.80 4.00 4.60 4.60 4.50
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 15% 14% 15% 16% 17% 17% 17% 17% 15% 15%
Mobile Users [%] 83% 89% 89% 91% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92% 89%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 97% 105% 108% 114% 118% 121% 124% 125% 126% 127%
Prepaid [%] 85% 91% 91% 94% 93% 93% 93% 92% 91% 90%
Postpaid [%] 12% 14% 17% 20% 24% 28% 31% 33% 35% 37%
Mobile Data Users [%] 71% 90% 100% 104% 108% 112% 115% 118% 120% 122%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 13,527 15,212 15,838 17,040 17,765 18,553 19,171 19,658 20,080 20,460
Claro [000] 9,449 10,670 11,057 11,758 12,240 12,751 13,150 13,459 13,717 13,951
Movistar [000] 3,721 4,222 4,478 4,973 5,163 5,393 5,580 5,734 5,877 6,014
CNT [000] 357 320 303 309 363 408 441 466 486 495
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 11,855 13,241 13,356 14,029 14,118 14,246 14,352 14,423 14,461 14,499
Postpaid [000] 1,672 1,971 2,482 3,011 3,648 4,307 4,819 5,235 5,620 5,961
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 22.8% 27.5% 37.0% 31.3% 29.9% 29.2% 28.5% 27.8% 27.2% 26.6%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 13,527 15,212 15,819 17,040 17,765 18,553 19,171 19,658 20,080 20,460
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 3,664 1,204 172 41 15 12 4 2 1 1
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 370 253 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 5,637 6,606 7,201 6,899 6,849 6,708 6,501 6,123 5,986 5,564
GSM/EDGE [000] 3,155 6,196 6,845 7,750 7,866 7,794 6,774 5,704 4,740 4,138
CDMA 1X [000] 104 90 88 59 15 12 5 3 1 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 14 16 24 22 7 4 2 1 1 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 584 847 1,479 2,227 2,616 3,125 3,979 4,475 4,775 5,073
HSPA [000] 0 0 9 42 311 653 1,332 2,333 3,205 4,017
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 87 245 573 1,017 1,372 1,667
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 12,271 13,790 14,343 15,414 16,051 16,743 17,280 17,699 18,058 18,379
Business Subscriptions [000] 1,256 1,422 1,495 1,626 1,714 1,810 1,890 1,959 2,022 2,081
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 9,984 13,082 14,650 15,509 16,255 17,145 17,894 18,532 19,120 19,676
MMS [000] 1,611 1,829 1,924 2,088 2,198 2,319 2,420 2,506 2,586 2,608
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Email [000] 654 745 807 873 912 952 984 1,022 1,064 1,105
Others [000] 188 222 231 249 260 271 280 287 293 303
Applications
Ringtones [000] 2,926 3,586 3,995 4,551 4,982 5,411 5,815 6,201 6,587 6,712
Graphics/Images [000] 1,217 1,410 1,512 1,674 1,797 1,933 2,109 2,320 2,570 2,864
Games [000] 256 317 370 445 520 608 703 808 924 1,045
Browsing/WAP [000] 372 608 950 1,256 2,132 2,649 3,011 3,242 3,444 3,580
Music [000] 542 792 989 1,276 1,530 1,757 2,088 2,438 2,811 3,212
Video [000] 383 474 553 659 782 928 1,112 1,337 1,606 1,923
Data cards/Modems [000] 213 332 428 579 711 844 978 1,111 1,245 1,381
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 90 110 149 137 134 139 146 151 156 160
Prepaid [units/month] 61 78 118 98 89 90 91 92 93 94
Postpaid [units/month] 297 330 330 331 323 315 318 320 323 326
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 93 106 120 125 126 128 130 132 134 137
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $9.11 $9.21 $9.40 $9.73 $10.05 $10.24 $10.44 $10.53 $10.59 $10.60
Porta Celular [US$/month] $9.00 $9.20 $9.42 $9.54 $9.82 $10.12 $10.34 $10.42 $10.44 $10.41
Movistar [US$/month] $9.22 $9.10 $9.22 $9.99 $10.36 $10.28 $10.45 $10.58 $10.73 $10.81
Alegro [US$/month] $10.75 $10.83 $11.22 $12.54 $13.68 $13.36 $13.20 $13.25 $13.15 $13.12
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $5.76 $5.75 $5.74 $5.64 $4.35 $5.36 $6.14 $7.59 $8.08 $8.71
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $32.88 $33.06 $31.25 $30.13 $30.36 $27.16 $25.48 $24.03 $22.97 $21.44
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $7.41 $7.39 $7.19 $7.36 $7.19 $7.25 $7.38 $7.42 $7.43 $7.40
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.70 $1.83 $2.21 $2.37 $2.87 $2.99 $3.06 $3.11 $3.16 $3.19
Messaging [US$/month] $1.19 $1.15 $1.40 $1.45 $1.78 $1.74 $1.71 $1.71 $1.70 $1.69
SMS [US$/month] $1.12 $1.07 $1.35 $1.41 $1.73 $1.69 $1.67 $1.66 $1.66 $1.65
MMS [US$/month] $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.01 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Email [US$/month] $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Applications [US$/month] $0.51 $0.67 $0.80 $0.92 $1.09 $1.25 $1.34 $1.40 $1.46 $1.50
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Games [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.08 $0.17 $0.22 $0.29 $0.41 $0.55 $0.61 $0.64 $0.66 $0.66
Music [US$/month] $0.05 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11 $0.12
Video [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.31 $0.37 $0.46 $0.52 $0.56 $0.58 $0.60 $0.61 $0.63 $0.64
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $36.44 $36.86 $37.60 $38.91 $35.19 $28.66 $24.00 $20.02 $17.47 $15.36
Non-3G [US$/month] $7.93 $7.73 $7.07 $5.91 $5.53 $5.80 $5.60 $5.36 $5.35 $5.90
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $1,382 $1,588 $1,751 $1,919 $2,100 $2,231 $2,362 $2,454 $2,525 $2,577
Voice Revenue [US$m] $1,124 $1,274 $1,339 $1,451 $1,501 $1,579 $1,671 $1,729 $1,773 $1,800
Data Revenue [US$m] $258 $315 $411 $467 $599 $651 $692 $725 $752 $777
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $181 $198 $261 $286 $372 $379 $388 $398 $405 $411
SMS [US$m] $171 $184 $251 $278 $361 $368 $378 $388 $395 $401
MMS [US$m] $4 $5 $4 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $2 $2
Email [US$m] $4 $6 $4 $3 $5 $5 $4 $4 $4 $4
Others [US$m] $2 $3 $2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3
Applications Revenue [US$m] $77 $116 $150 $182 $227 $273 $304 $327 $347 $366
Ringtones [US$m] $5 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2
Graphics/Images [US$m] $1 $2 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Games [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $12 $29 $41 $57 $86 $119 $138 $149 $157 $161
Music [US$m] $8 $12 $11 $11 $13 $16 $18 $22 $26 $30
Video [US$m] $4 $6 $5 $5 $6 $7 $8 $10 $12 $14
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $46 $63 $86 $103 $117 $127 $135 $143 $150 $157
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
EL SALVADOR
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 6,160 6,181 6,214 6,249 6,281 6,313 6,345 6,378 6,412 6,445
Households [000] 1,545 1,568 1,591 1,615 1,640 1,664 1,689 1,714 1,740 1,766
Businesses [000] 202 210 218 227 236 246 256 266 274 282
Nominal GDP [US$m] $20,661 $21,428 $23,054 $23,787 $24,389 $25,481 $26,869 $28,409 $30,036 $31,817
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $3,354 $3,467 $3,710 $3,806 $3,880 $4,040 $4,230 $4,450 $4,680 $4,940
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $6,180 $6,410 $6,590 $6,750 $6,960 $7,180 $7,460 $7,750 $8,050 $8,390
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 1.06 1.18 5.13 1.76 0.90 2.40 3.10 3.20 3.20 3.30
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12%
Mobile Users [%] 79% 77% 80% 83% 85% 87% 90% 94% 95% 96%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 123% 127% 134% 138% 141% 144% 147% 150% 153% 154%
Prepaid [%] 110% 114% 119% 123% 124% 126% 128% 130% 131% 131%
Postpaid [%] 12% 13% 14% 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 23%
Mobile Data Users [%] 102% 107% 116% 123% 126% 130% 133% 136% 139% 140%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 7,566 7,823 8,316 8,635 8,852 9,076 9,304 9,539 9,782 9,931
Tigo [000] 2,780 2,728 3,027 2,979 2,666 2,475 2,362 2,299 2,267 2,220
Movistar [000] 1,078 1,134 1,204 1,446 1,669 1,848 2,001 2,136 2,261 2,363
Claro [000] 1,789 1,828 1,918 2,014 2,204 2,363 2,507 2,644 2,780 2,887
Digicel [000] 1,838 2,047 2,082 2,113 2,232 2,310 2,358 2,387 2,404 2,393
Intelfon [000] 82 86 85 83 81 78 76 73 71 68
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 6,801 7,048 7,425 7,677 7,804 7,946 8,111 8,277 8,426 8,456
Postpaid [000] 766 775 891 958 1,048 1,130 1,192 1,262 1,356 1,475
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 35.4% 33.9% 29.0% 28.5% 30.7% 30.0% 29.6% 29.2% 28.9% 28.7%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 7,566 7,823 8,316 8,635 8,852 9,076 9,304 9,539 9,782 9,931
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 82 86 85 83 81 78 76 73 71 68
GSM [000] 2,642 2,071 1,196 403 0 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 290 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 3,962 4,700 5,325 5,237 4,512 3,940 3,618 3,057 1,990 1,173
GSM/EDGE [000] 338 389 605 1,025 1,384 1,122 971 785 650 485
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 234 526 1,013 1,724 2,260 2,848 2,839 3,022 3,074 3,007
HSPA [000] 18 52 91 164 617 1,020 1,697 2,295 3,587 4,682
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 67 103 306 411 515
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 7,249 7,502 7,982 8,300 8,528 8,754 8,983 9,218 9,459 9,607
Business Subscriptions [000] 318 321 334 335 325 321 321 321 323 324
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
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© 2013 Client Confidential
SMS [000] 6,280 6,639 7,235 7,663 7,934 8,215 8,431 8,653 8,882 9,026
MMS [000] 681 747 832 838 833 811 790 770 750 723
Email [000] 76 118 166 259 310 363 477 525 587 645
Others [000] 93 128 176 186 190 195 200 205 210 214
Applications
Ringtones [000] 832 1,022 1,164 1,295 1,416 1,361 1,303 1,240 1,174 1,092
Graphics/Images [000] 509 536 575 604 620 635 651 668 685 695
Games [000] 246 291 374 475 509 545 582 620 685 735
Browsing/WAP [000] 151 250 334 433 885 1,361 1,861 2,862 3,913 4,965
Music [000] 15 27 42 65 89 109 130 153 176 199
Video [000] 8 14 25 43 62 86 147 191 293 397
Data cards/Modems [000] 32 73 118 168 214 209 203 198 193 186
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 104 104 107 111 114 119 123 126 130 136
Prepaid [units/month] 65 64 65 65 66 67 68 69 70 71
Postpaid [units/month] 466 467 473 481 488 494 501 508 517 528
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 35 42 44 46 48 46 44 42 40 38
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $7.08 $6.79 $6.97 $6.83 $7.13 $7.24 $7.34 $7.49 $7.74 $7.93
Tigo [US$/month] $7.80 $7.17 $8.21 $7.93 $8.81 $9.60 $10.33 $11.05 $11.82 $12.28
Movistar [US$/month] $7.23 $7.19 $7.97 $7.51 $7.09 $6.78 $6.61 $6.54 $6.65 $6.73
Claro [US$/month] $6.20 $6.14 $5.04 $4.95 $5.50 $5.48 $5.46 $5.52 $5.67 $5.94
Digicel [US$/month] $6.71 $6.54 $6.49 $6.66 $6.64 $6.76 $6.85 $7.02 $7.25 $7.43
Intelfon [US$/month] $8.75 $8.45 $4.98 $5.14 $5.00 $5.28 $5.49 $5.73 $6.06 $6.38
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $5.25 $3.61 $3.76 $3.85 $3.86 $4.01 $4.02 $4.12 $4.10 $3.94
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $23.95 $43.52 $45.32 $42.37 $32.37 $30.63 $30.28 $30.00 $30.96 $31.74
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $5.83 $5.54 $5.33 $5.12 $5.03 $4.96 $4.93 $4.87 $4.83 $4.76
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.26 $1.25 $1.66 $1.86 $2.10 $2.28 $2.41 $2.62 $2.91 $3.17
Messaging [US$/month] $0.80 $0.88 $0.95 $0.99 $1.00 $0.94 $0.89 $0.85 $0.80 $0.76
SMS [US$/month] $0.73 $0.77 $0.78 $0.79 $0.78 $0.71 $0.64 $0.58 $0.52 $0.47
MMS [US$/month] $0.04 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02
Email [US$/month] $0.04 $0.06 $0.08 $0.10 $0.13 $0.14 $0.16 $0.19 $0.20 $0.21
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.02 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06
Applications [US$/month] $0.45 $0.36 $0.71 $0.87 $1.10 $1.34 $1.52 $1.77 $2.11 $2.41
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.09 $0.04 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07 $0.06 $0.06
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.06 $0.02 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04
Games [US$/month] $0.09 $0.10 $0.16 $0.18 $0.19 $0.19 $0.21 $0.20 $0.21 $0.21
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.10 $0.10 $0.20 $0.24 $0.38 $0.60 $0.80 $1.09 $1.45 $1.76
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.09 $0.10 $0.23 $0.31 $0.39 $0.41 $0.38 $0.35 $0.32 $0.30
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $23.02 $21.71 $21.59 $19.88 $15.66 $13.52 $12.48 $11.23 $10.83 $10.32
Non-3G [US$/month] $6.73 $5.93 $5.29 $4.21 $3.93 $3.47 $3.06 $3.55 $2.98 $1.89
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $617 $627 $677 $710 $748 $779 $809 $847 $897 $939
Voice Revenue [US$m] $508 $511 $516 $521 $528 $534 $544 $550 $560 $563
Data Revenue [US$m] $109 $115 $161 $189 $220 $245 $266 $297 $337 $375
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $70 $81 $92 $101 $105 $101 $98 $96 $93 $90
SMS [US$m] $63 $71 $76 $80 $82 $76 $71 $66 $61 $56
MMS [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $2
Email [US$m] $3 $5 $7 $11 $13 $15 $18 $21 $23 $25
Others [US$m] $0 $2 $5 $5 $6 $6 $6 $6 $7 $7
Applications Revenue [US$m] $39 $34 $69 $88 $116 $144 $167 $200 $244 $285
Ringtones [US$m] $8 $3 $7 $8 $9 $9 $8 $8 $7 $7
Graphics/Images [US$m] $5 $2 $4 $4 $4 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5
Games [US$m] $8 $9 $16 $18 $20 $20 $23 $23 $24 $25
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $9 $10 $20 $25 $40 $65 $88 $123 $168 $209
Music [US$m] $1 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $3
Video [US$m] $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $8 $9 $22 $32 $41 $44 $42 $39 $38 $36
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
GUATEMALA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 13,990 14,340 14,710 15,080 15,460 15,840 16,230 16,640 17,060 17,491
Households [000] 3,210 3,242 3,274 3,307 3,340 3,374 3,407 3,441 3,476 3,511
Businesses [000] 321 328 336 344 352 361 370 378 388 397
Nominal GDP [US$m] $37,734 $41,338 $47,689 $50,236 $54,564 $57,891 $62,272 $66,466 $70,942 $75,720
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $2,697 $2,883 $3,242 $3,330 $3,530 $3,650 $3,840 $3,990 $4,146 $4,308
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $7,190 $7,210 $7,330 $7,360 $7,420 $7,440 $7,490 $7,550 $7,610 $7,671
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 1.86 3.86 6.22 3.78 4.40 4.70 4.30 4.50 4.71 4.93
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 8.16 8.06 7.79 7.83 7.88 8.00 7.99 8.07 8.16 8.24
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 12% 12%
Mobile Users [%] 63% 69% 73% 83% 88% 91% 92% 92% 92% 92%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 85% 94% 99% 111% 119% 122% 123% 124% 124% 123%
Prepaid [%] 80% 88% 93% 103% 111% 113% 114% 114% 114% 113%
Postpaid [%] 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10%
Mobile Data Users [%] 72% 79% 84% 94% 102% 105% 107% 109% 110% 110%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 11,919 13,489 14,530 16,675 18,320 19,334 20,008 20,616 21,139 21,564
Movistar [000] 2,479 2,626 2,637 3,521 4,205 4,623 4,859 5,052 5,200 5,308
Claro [000] 3,990 4,555 4,748 5,232 5,781 6,152 6,454 6,720 6,956 7,158
Tigo [000] 5,450 6,309 7,145 7,922 8,334 8,558 8,695 8,843 8,983 9,098
Digicel [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 11,194 12,649 13,612 15,598 17,097 17,951 18,479 18,940 19,396 19,761
Postpaid [000] 725 841 918 1,077 1,223 1,383 1,529 1,676 1,743 1,803
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 30.9% 29.0% 29.1% 30.5% 31.9% 31.5% 31.2% 30.9% 30.6% 30.2%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 11,919 13,489 14,530 16,675 18,320 19,334 20,008 20,616 21,139 21,564
Analog [000] 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 2,669 2,296 1,230 79 75 21 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 604 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 1,960 228 95 52 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 6,035 9,507 10,544 11,871 11,932 10,584 10,415 9,224 9,066 8,666
GSM/EDGE [000] 191 337 629 1,263 1,565 2,086 1,272 1,219 1,135 1,036
CDMA 1X [000] 213 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 219 1,037 2,033 3,410 4,657 6,390 7,891 9,613 10,283 11,049
HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 90 253 429 560 656 813
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 11,538 13,056 14,059 16,145 17,742 18,724 19,375 19,961 20,465 20,874
Business Subscriptions [000] 382 434 471 530 579 610 633 654 674 690
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 10,012 11,396 12,337 14,229 15,711 16,663 17,416 18,089 18,696 19,225
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MMS [000] 684 907 1,178 1,584 1,741 1,837 1,901 1,959 2,008 2,049
Email [000] 108 186 292 459 504 551 590 650 740 841
Others [000] 83 153 258 442 486 551 570 588 603 615
Applications
Ringtones [000] 1,311 1,889 2,136 2,574 2,997 3,353 3,574 3,719 3,806 3,844
Graphics/Images [000] 695 875 1,005 1,186 1,304 1,348 1,353 1,339 1,304 1,250
Games [000] 155 196 236 332 421 449 463 454 433 402
Browsing/WAP [000] 149 337 471 669 934 1,192 1,456 1,725 1,999 2,294
Music [000] 33 51 73 117 183 290 630 825 846 863
Video [000] 12 24 36 58 92 145 315 412 634 863
Data cards/Modems [000] 62 130 204 306 413 502 581 642 698 755
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 122 123 124 126 127 130 132 135 137 138
Prepaid [units/month] 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112
Postpaid [units/month] 408 410 411 414 417 418 419 422 425 427
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 38
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $10.27 $9.75 $9.33 $9.15 $8.99 $8.92 $8.94 $9.02 $9.05 $9.05
Movistar [US$/month] $9.41 $9.20 $8.13 $7.67 $7.30 $7.17 $7.23 $7.32 $7.35 $7.40
Claro [US$/month] $9.19 $8.51 $8.52 $8.69 $8.86 $8.90 $8.94 $9.00 $9.01 $8.99
Tigo [US$/month] $11.53 $10.90 $10.36 $10.06 $9.87 $9.84 $9.87 $9.99 $10.06 $10.07
Digicel [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $8.65 $8.23 $7.83 $7.70 $7.60 $7.60 $7.56 $7.52 $7.48 $7.44
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $34.20 $33.00 $31.78 $30.40 $28.67 $26.64 $26.19 $26.54 $26.69 $26.85
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $8.34 $7.84 $7.44 $7.24 $6.99 $6.86 $6.81 $6.81 $6.77 $6.71
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.93 $1.91 $1.95 $1.96 $2.00 $2.05 $2.12 $2.21 $2.28 $2.35
Messaging [US$/month] $1.56 $1.42 $1.33 $1.26 $1.22 $1.19 $1.19 $1.19 $1.20 $1.21
SMS [US$/month] $1.54 $1.39 $1.28 $1.19 $1.14 $1.12 $1.11 $1.12 $1.12 $1.12
MMS [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Email [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03
Applications [US$/month] $0.37 $0.49 $0.63 $0.71 $0.78 $0.86 $0.94 $1.01 $1.08 $1.14
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.05 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.16 $0.16 $0.17 $0.16 $0.15 $0.14 $0.13 $0.12 $0.11 $0.10
Games [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.07 $0.12 $0.16 $0.19 $0.24 $0.29 $0.34 $0.39 $0.44 $0.49
Music [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.06 $0.12 $0.19 $0.24 $0.28 $0.32 $0.35 $0.38 $0.40 $0.42
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $37.07 $35.20 $33.68 $25.79 $22.13 $19.62 $17.88 $17.13 $16.29 $16.30
Non-3G [US$/month] $9.82 $8.43 $6.40 $5.70 $5.07 $4.53 $3.95 $3.00 $2.61 $1.96
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $1,378 $1,487 $1,579 $1,723 $1,887 $2,014 $2,110 $2,198 $2,268 $2,320
Voice Revenue [US$m] $1,119 $1,195 $1,251 $1,355 $1,468 $1,550 $1,608 $1,660 $1,697 $1,718
Data Revenue [US$m] $259 $292 $329 $368 $419 $464 $502 $538 $571 $602
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $210 $217 $223 $235 $255 $270 $280 $291 $301 $310
SMS [US$m] $207 $212 $216 $223 $240 $253 $263 $272 $281 $288
MMS [US$m] $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4
Email [US$m] $1 $2 $3 $5 $7 $7 $8 $8 $9 $11
Others [US$m] $1 $1 $2 $4 $6 $6 $7 $7 $7 $7
Applications Revenue [US$m] $49 $75 $105 $133 $164 $194 $221 $247 $270 $292
Ringtones [US$m] $7 $10 $13 $15 $16 $18 $19 $20 $21 $21
Graphics/Images [US$m] $22 $25 $28 $30 $32 $31 $30 $29 $27 $26
Games [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $5 $7 $8 $7 $7 $7 $6
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $9 $18 $27 $36 $49 $65 $80 $95 $110 $126
Music [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $3 $3
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $3 $4
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $8 $19 $32 $46 $59 $71 $82 $92 $99 $107
© 2013 Client Confidential
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
HONDURAS
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 7,450 7,600 7,760 7,915 8,076 8,236 8,397 8,558 8,722 8,889
Households [000] 1,579 1,619 1,659 1,701 1,743 1,787 1,832 1,877 1,924 1,973
Businesses [000] 338 345 350 356 361 365 369 373 376 379
Nominal GDP [US$m] $14,484 $15,727 $17,586 $18,436 $18,755 $19,443 $20,259 $21,184 $22,151 $23,163
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $1,944 $2,069 $2,266 $2,330 $2,320 $2,360 $2,410 $2,480 $2,552 $2,626
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $3,688 $3,795 $3,932 $4,050 $4,140 $4,270 $4,400 $4,560 $4,726 $4,898
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 5.50 4.70 6.76 5.20 5.20 5.20 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 19.03 19.03 19.05 19.64 20.53 21.47 22.49 23.48 24.51 25.59
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9%
Mobile Users [%] 72% 78% 77% 83% 88% 90% 89% 88% 88% 88%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 103% 116% 115% 124% 129% 132% 133% 134% 134% 135%
Prepaid [%] 99% 112% 110% 118% 122% 124% 124% 125% 125% 124%
Postpaid [%] 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10%
Mobile Data Users [%] 80% 89% 95% 103% 108% 111% 113% 114% 115% 116%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 7,695 8,815 8,887 9,794 10,442 10,862 11,174 11,468 11,723 11,960
Tigo [000] 4,846 5,068 4,244 4,441 4,643 5,036 5,255 5,454 5,627 5,787
Claro [000] 1,542 1,770 2,443 3,062 5,634 5,659 5,755 5,853 5,940 6,023
Hondutel [000] 137 152 160 168 165 167 165 161 156 150
Digicel [000] 1,170 1,825 2,040 2,123 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 7,409 8,479 8,506 9,325 9,863 10,196 10,449 10,682 10,878 11,054
Postpaid [000] 286 336 381 469 579 666 726 786 845 905
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 31.1% 29.7% 37.9% 36.6% 29.8% 35.6% 33.8% 32.9% 32.1% 31.3%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 7,695 8,815 8,887 9,794 10,442 10,862 11,174 11,468 11,723 11,960
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 1,435 661 109 75 103 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 284 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 5,060 6,264 5,649 5,251 4,257 2,739 1,396 1,008 403 307
GSM/EDGE [000] 619 1,148 1,638 2,173 2,015 1,763 1,533 1,195 641 517
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 172 466 967 1,415 2,553 4,003 4,607 4,755 4,988 4,874
HSPA [000] 126 225 523 880 1,515 2,352 3,586 4,414 5,543 6,020
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 4 52 96 149 241
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 7,324 8,383 8,460 9,306 9,884 10,234 10,480 10,705 10,887 11,045
Business Subscriptions [000] 371 432 427 489 559 629 694 763 836 915
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
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© 2013 Client Confidential
SMS [000] 5,925 6,788 7,376 8,170 8,754 9,151 9,461 9,759 10,026 10,279
MMS [000] 539 661 800 877 842 788 729 674 620 569
Email [000] 34 74 134 246 313 353 391 430 440 448
Others [000] 77 88 89 98 125 141 156 172 188 239
Applications
Ringtones [000] 267 305 308 339 362 376 387 397 406 414
Graphics/Images [000] 221 304 369 441 501 511 525 539 551 562
Games [000] 92 111 121 157 188 217 223 229 234 239
Browsing/WAP [000] 94 159 236 305 406 530 643 803 996 1,316
Music [000] 23 31 44 69 104 163 223 287 352 478
Video [000] 12 15 22 34 52 81 223 344 469 718
Data cards/Modems [000] 2 5 13 28 49 73 106 149 199 359
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 77 76 74 77 95 109 113 117 121 124
Prepaid [units/month] 75 79 80 82 90 94 96 99 102 104
Postpaid [units/month] 334 351 352 356 368 379 383 387 391 395
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 23 28 33 41 49 59 72 90 114 148
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $9.85 $9.52 $9.69 $9.92 $10.23 $10.70 $11.27 $11.92 $12.71 $13.79
Tigo [US$/month] $10.49 $10.22 $10.65 $11.71 $11.41 $11.41 $12.13 $13.07 $14.29 $15.96
Claro [US$/month] $8.01 $7.48 $8.17 $8.41 $10.24 $10.07 $10.49 $10.85 $11.25 $11.76
Hondutel [US$/month] $7.97 $7.54 $9.76 $9.99 $11.71 $11.61 $11.70 $11.86 $12.09 $12.43
Digicel [US$/month] $9.82 $9.66 $9.04 $8.16 $4.94 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $7.15 $6.99 $7.03 $7.08 $7.44 $8.73 $9.56 $10.47 $11.76 $13.54
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $74.59 $65.69 $52.43 $51.36 $61.40 $53.50 $49.61 $47.66 $44.50 $41.38
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $8.34 $7.81 $7.71 $7.65 $7.57 $8.22 $8.37 $8.47 $8.57 $8.66
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.51 $1.71 $1.98 $2.27 $2.66 $3.12 $3.71 $4.48 $5.50 $6.95
Messaging [US$/month] $1.41 $1.54 $1.72 $2.03 $2.34 $2.73 $3.25 $3.92 $4.83 $6.06
SMS [US$/month] $1.39 $1.51 $1.69 $1.99 $2.31 $2.70 $3.22 $3.90 $4.81 $6.04
MMS [US$/month] $0.01 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Email [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Applications [US$/month] $0.10 $0.18 $0.22 $0.27 $0.32 $0.39 $0.47 $0.56 $0.67 $0.89
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.05 $0.09 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03
Games [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.17 $0.22
Music [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.04 $0.08 $0.11 $0.16 $0.21 $0.28 $0.44
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $87.66 $85.68 $48.46 $33.32 $24.05 $19.26 $16.46 $15.73 $15.89 $16.69
Non-3G [US$/month] $7.40 $4.67 $4.24 $3.97 $3.90 $3.76 $3.49 $3.49 $2.83 $2.88
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $812 $943 $1,029 $1,112 $1,242 $1,450 $1,598 $1,760 $1,957 $2,217
Voice Revenue [US$m] $688 $773 $819 $858 $919 $1,051 $1,107 $1,151 $1,192 $1,230
Data Revenue [US$m] $124 $170 $211 $254 $323 $399 $491 $609 $765 $987
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $116 $152 $183 $227 $284 $349 $429 $533 $672 $861
SMS [US$m] $115 $149 $180 $224 $280 $346 $426 $530 $669 $859
MMS [US$m] $1 $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $3 $2
Email [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Others [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Applications Revenue [US$m] $8 $18 $24 $30 $39 $50 $62 $76 $93 $126
Ringtones [US$m] $4 $9 $11 $13 $14 $16 $18 $19 $21 $22
Graphics/Images [US$m] $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4 $4
Games [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $13 $16 $19 $24 $31
Music [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $2
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $2
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $0 $1 $2 $5 $9 $14 $21 $29 $39 $63
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
MEXICO
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 111,212 114,256 115,683 117,054 118,395 119,713 121,006 122,273 123,518 124,738
Households [000] 27,057 27,387 27,720 28,058 28,400 28,745 29,095 29,450 29,808 30,171
Businesses [000] 5,144 5,350 5,510 5,621 5,733 5,848 5,906 5,965 6,025 6,085
Nominal GDP [US$m] $894,570 $1,046,700 $1,160,700 $1,177,400 $1,280,000 $1,381,000 $1,511,000 $1,620,000 $1,737,000 $1,861,000
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $8,044 $9,307 $10,198 $10,240 $11,010 $11,750 $12,710 $13,490 $14,310 $15,160
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $14,672 $15,465 $16,820 $17,588 $17,890 $18,620 $19,450 $20,380 $21,420 $22,460
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 5.30 4.16 3.41 4.11 3.70 3.20 3.50 3.40 3.40 3.30
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 13.51 12.64 12.42 13.17 12.76 12.71 12.54 12.61 12.69 12.77
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15%
Mobile Users [%] 62% 67% 68% 69% 69% 70% 72% 72% 74% 76%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 75% 80% 82% 86% 88% 91% 95% 98% 101% 104%
Prepaid [%] 65% 69% 69% 73% 74% 77% 80% 82% 84% 86%
Postpaid [%] 9% 11% 12% 14% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 18%
Mobile Data Users [%] 59% 67% 78% 83% 85% 89% 92% 96% 99% 102%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 83,150 91,362 94,565 100,727 103,715 109,484 115,093 120,253 125,122 130,148
Telcel [000] 59,167 64,138 65,678 70,366 72,955 77,511 81,790 85,522 88,962 92,242
Movistar [000] 17,401 19,662 19,742 19,168 19,302 19,656 20,075 20,557 21,054 21,731
Iusacell [000] 3,595 4,201 5,450 7,292 7,926 8,631 9,317 10,022 10,698 11,466
Nextel [000] 2,987 3,361 3,695 3,902 3,532 3,687 3,911 4,153 4,407 4,709
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 50 42 31 43 55 337 576 792 992 1,157
MaxcomCel [000] 50 42 30 38 45 49 54 58 63 68
Megacable [000] 0 0 1 5 10 14 19 23 27 29
Virgin [000] 0 0 0 0 0 274 504 710 902 1,060
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 72,783 78,780 80,237 84,898 87,205 91,797 96,208 100,185 103,930 107,815
Postpaid [000] 10,367 12,582 14,329 15,829 16,511 17,687 18,885 20,068 21,192 22,332
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 38.8% 41.2% 49.7% 48.7% 51.3% 47.8% 45.9% 44.7% 43.6% 43.1%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 83,150 91,362 94,565 100,727 103,715 109,484 115,093 120,253 125,122 130,148
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 2,987 3,361 3,695 3,824 3,003 2,691 2,464 2,077 1,322 471
GSM [000] 8,642 7,117 5,518 4,185 3,002 2,076 1,229 533 170 88
TDMA [000] 1,893 1,219 874 374 39 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 43,957 38,694 30,578 22,946 15,759 11,549 8,781 4,482 1,779 922
GSM/EDGE [000] 16,668 24,006 29,215 39,473 41,920 26,097 18,334 16,694 14,671 14,427
CDMA 1X [000] 1,977 2,101 1,035 437 79 43 19 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 1,618 2,101 2,888 3,573 2,378 2,158 1,863 1,503 1,070 573
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 4,320 8,634 13,716 15,799 24,364 31,406 37,660 37,473 35,942 30,990
HSPA [000] 1,088 4,130 7,047 10,073 12,457 31,635 41,190 52,410 63,124 73,505
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 43 715 1,829 3,553 5,081 7,043 9,171
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 78,296 85,999 88,745 94,650 97,729 103,229 108,551 113,411 117,981 122,676
Business Subscriptions [000] 4,854 5,363 5,820 6,078 5,986 6,255 6,542 6,842 7,141 7,471
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 65,688 76,506 89,837 97,294 100,604 106,306 111,864 116,996 121,854 126,876
MMS [000] 5,850 8,356 8,562 8,664 8,475 8,499 8,488 8,425 8,328 8,229
Email [000] 6,706 10,316 12,813 15,013 17,004 19,745 22,832 26,242 30,034 34,365
Others [000] 44 86 134 215 331 525 827 1,296 2,023 3,157
Applications
Ringtones [000] 4,386 6,024 7,482 9,165 12,268 14,893 18,004 21,633 25,885 30,963
Graphics/Images [000] 2,924 3,663 4,208 4,886 5,484 6,310 7,230 7,932 8,666 9,465
Games [000] 1,950 2,785 3,431 4,093 4,488 4,975 5,491 6,024 6,581 7,188
Browsing/WAP [000] 1,947 5,668 9,974 16,116 23,855 31,750 40,283 48,101 55,053 61,169
Music [000] 2,605 4,556 6,907 9,196 10,889 12,825 13,466 14,070 14,639 16,919
Video [000] 1,861 3,254 4,934 6,569 7,778 9,032 10,444 13,228 16,266 18,221
Data cards/Modems [000] 500 1,550 1,891 2,519 2,956 3,416 3,856 4,269 4,655 4,946
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 208 211 226 238 249 259 270 281 291 302
Prepaid [units/month] 168 166 172 182 189 197 205 213 222 230
Postpaid [units/month] 514 508 546 545 569 588 607 623 636 649
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 53 60 75 82 75 70 66 64 63 62
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $13.94 $14.16 $13.78 $13.70 $13.37 $13.17 $13.33 $13.52 $13.68 $13.82
Telcel [US$/month] $13.04 $13.56 $13.21 $13.40 $13.46 $13.18 $13.25 $13.35 $13.44 $13.51
Movistar [US$/month] $9.57 $9.64 $7.42 $7.89 $7.17 $7.21 $7.50 $7.72 $7.92 $8.13
Iusacell [US$/month] $18.00 $17.00 $19.92 $16.45 $15.76 $16.09 $16.51 $17.06 $17.60 $18.11
Nextel [US$/month] $52.18 $48.60 $51.38 $44.32 $38.67 $38.32 $38.04 $37.69 $37.07 $36.22
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $8.90 $9.11 $8.92 $8.56 $8.21 $7.79 $7.63 $7.51 $7.45 $7.37
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $51.69 $47.48 $42.46 $41.86 $40.81 $41.31 $42.65 $43.81 $44.46 $45.20
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $11.54 $11.22 $10.19 $9.48 $9.05 $8.69 $8.63 $8.55 $8.44 $8.32
Data ARPS [US$/month] $2.40 $2.93 $3.59 $4.23 $4.32 $4.48 $4.70 $4.97 $5.24 $5.50
Messaging [US$/month] $1.91 $2.12 $2.48 $2.78 $2.50 $2.30 $2.17 $2.09 $2.04 $2.01
SMS [US$/month] $1.83 $2.00 $2.34 $2.62 $2.33 $2.13 $1.99 $1.90 $1.84 $1.80
MMS [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00
Email [US$/month] $0.07 $0.11 $0.13 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 $0.17 $0.18 $0.19 $0.21
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01
Applications [US$/month] $0.49 $0.81 $1.11 $1.45 $1.82 $2.18 $2.54 $2.87 $3.19 $3.48
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.15 $0.15 $0.13 $0.12 $0.13 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.15
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.11
Games [US$/month] $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.09 $0.10 $0.11 $0.12 $0.13 $0.14 $0.15
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.08 $0.19 $0.34 $0.55 $0.83 $1.12 $1.41 $1.68 $1.92 $2.12
Music [US$/month] $0.02 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.05 $0.06 $0.08 $0.10 $0.13 $0.18 $0.24
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.10 $0.27 $0.39 $0.48 $0.52 $0.54 $0.57 $0.59 $0.61 $0.62
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $66.92 $67.95 $42.71 $32.75 $26.73 $22.38 $18.67 $17.57 $16.82 $16.58
Non-3G [US$/month] $10.81 $7.91 $7.80 $8.30 $8.49 $6.83 $3.69 $2.88 $3.21 $3.68
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $13,475 $14,823 $15,370 $16,058 $16,396 $16,843 $17,966 $19,088 $20,134 $21,164
Voice Revenue [US$m] $11,158 $11,752 $11,368 $11,103 $11,100 $11,111 $11,628 $12,074 $12,423 $12,747
Data Revenue [US$m] $2,317 $3,071 $4,003 $4,954 $5,297 $5,732 $6,338 $7,013 $7,711 $8,417
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $1,847 $2,221 $2,768 $3,258 $3,066 $2,947 $2,920 $2,955 $3,009 $3,083
SMS [US$m] $1,766 $2,091 $2,609 $3,071 $2,864 $2,729 $2,682 $2,690 $2,712 $2,749
MMS [US$m] $10 $15 $17 $17 $15 $13 $11 $9 $7 $6
Email [US$m] $71 $114 $142 $169 $186 $203 $224 $250 $281 $316
Others [US$m] $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $2 $4 $5 $8 $12
Applications Revenue [US$m] $471 $850 $1,234 $1,696 $2,230 $2,785 $3,417 $4,059 $4,702 $5,334
Ringtones [US$m] $146 $154 $150 $144 $164 $179 $191 $203 $215 $227
Graphics/Images [US$m] $72 $84 $90 $102 $115 $128 $144 $153 $161 $170
Games [US$m] $43 $63 $80 $101 $120 $137 $157 $178 $200 $224
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $75 $197 $379 $648 $1,013 $1,438 $1,900 $2,378 $2,831 $3,253
Music [US$m] $21 $42 $62 $87 $104 $118 $128 $132 $135 $144
Video [US$m] $14 $24 $37 $53 $75 $100 $132 $185 $267 $365
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $100 $286 $436 $560 $639 $685 $766 $830 $893 $951
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
NICARAGUA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 6,406 6,575 6,747 6,925 7,107 7,294 7,485 7,682 7,884 8,092
Households [000] 1,147 1,176 1,204 1,234 1,264 1,296 1,327 1,360 1,394 1,428
Businesses [000] 226 232 238 244 250 256 263 269 276 283
Nominal GDP [US$m] $8,062 $8,427 $9,317 $10,508 $11,157 $11,758 $12,525 $13,370 $14,272 $15,235
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $1,260 $1,280 $1,380 $1,520 $1,570 $1,610 $1,670 $1,740 $1,810 $1,882
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $2,860 $2,920 $3,040 $3,180 $3,280 $3,410 $3,540 $3,690 $3,727 $3,764
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 3.69 5.46 8.08 7.19 7.30 5.90 6.90 7.10 7.31 7.52
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 20.34 21.36 22.42 23.55 24.77 26.02 27.33 28.70 30.14 31.64
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3%
Mobile Users [%] 49% 55% 61% 64% 66% 68% 69% 71% 72% 71%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 51% 57% 63% 67% 69% 70% 72% 73% 75% 74%
Prepaid [%] 49% 54% 59% 62% 64% 64% 65% 66% 67% 66%
Postpaid [%] 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8%
Mobile Data Users [%] 27% 30% 38% 43% 47% 49% 52% 57% 59% 59%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 3,295 3,761 4,251 4,625 4,912 5,142 5,382 5,635 5,899 5,988
Movistar [000] 1,100 1,352 1,432 1,570 1,698 1,802 1,909 2,018 2,131 2,166
Claro [000] 2,195 2,409 2,818 3,055 3,214 3,340 3,474 3,617 3,767 3,822
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 3,126 3,541 3,971 4,284 4,519 4,698 4,883 5,076 5,277 5,321
Postpaid [000] 169 220 280 341 393 444 499 558 621 667
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 34.5% 33.7% 33.3% 32.5% 31.8% 31.0% 30.3% 29.7% 29.1% 28.6%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 3,295 3,761 4,251 4,625 4,912 5,142 5,382 5,635 5,899 5,988
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 1,708 1,514 1,052 832 584 491 335 294 247 38
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 1,049 1,389 1,714 1,562 936 882 663 540 336 277
GSM/EDGE [000] 384 590 919 1,309 1,734 1,543 1,346 1,127 885 527
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 154 268 565 737 930 1,262 1,788 1,972 1,738 1,580
HSPA [000] 0 0 0 184 728 961 1,233 1,669 2,617 3,375
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 3 17 33 75 191
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 3,161 3,603 4,068 4,421 4,691 4,911 5,140 5,381 5,633 5,718
Business Subscriptions [000] 134 158 183 203 221 231 242 254 265 269
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 1,758 1,981 2,550 3,006 3,340 3,600 3,875 4,395 4,660 4,790
MMS [000] 156 188 255 277 295 309 310 312 313 305
Email [000] 110 168 285 464 690 940 1,082 1,246 1,435 1,602
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© 2013 Client Confidential
Others [000] 58 77 108 147 196 206 215 225 236 240
Applications
Ringtones [000] 134 153 182 208 232 255 280 308 339 361
Graphics/Images [000] 111 126 150 171 192 208 222 234 248 254
Games [000] 31 42 62 83 123 154 181 206 295 359
Browsing/WAP [000] 40 60 89 116 138 161 189 234 245 248
Music [000] 15 31 60 88 108 129 161 183 192 195
Video [000] 16 22 34 44 54 64 81 113 118 120
Data cards/Modems [000] 7 10 15 21 27 31 35 41 47 52
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 71 77 83 89 94 99 104 109 114 119
Prepaid [units/month] 46 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 47 48
Postpaid [units/month] 599 630 656 663 671 678 685 693 700 707
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 15 16 17 19 21 22 23 25 27 27
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $7.84 $7.05 $7.02 $7.03 $6.93 $6.95 $6.95 $7.00 $7.05 $7.08
Movistar [US$/month] $9.27 $8.38 $7.91 $8.01 $7.73 $7.73 $7.73 $7.75 $7.76 $7.75
Claro [US$/month] $7.15 $6.34 $6.55 $6.53 $6.52 $6.53 $6.53 $6.58 $6.65 $6.70
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $6.15 $5.06 $4.96 $4.76 $4.53 $4.43 $4.33 $4.24 $4.14 $4.05
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $38.87 $36.49 $35.09 $33.20 $31.24 $30.19 $29.48 $29.05 $28.62 $28.19
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $6.60 $5.74 $5.76 $5.67 $5.49 $5.44 $5.41 $5.39 $5.37 $5.35
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.25 $1.31 $1.26 $1.36 $1.44 $1.51 $1.55 $1.61 $1.68 $1.73
Messaging [US$/month] $0.88 $0.90 $0.85 $0.91 $0.94 $0.96 $0.98 $1.02 $1.06 $1.06
SMS [US$/month] $0.84 $0.87 $0.81 $0.86 $0.89 $0.90 $0.92 $0.96 $0.99 $0.99
MMS [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Email [US$/month] $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Applications [US$/month] $0.37 $0.41 $0.41 $0.45 $0.50 $0.54 $0.57 $0.58 $0.62 $0.67
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.08 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.07
Games [US$/month] $0.06 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11 $0.14 $0.17 $0.18 $0.19 $0.22 $0.26
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07
Music [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.11 $0.11 $0.11 $0.12 $0.14 $0.14 $0.15 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $30.44 $27.73 $18.65 $14.93 $14.63 $14.24 $13.21 $11.20 $9.87 $8.63
Non-3G [US$/month] $6.96 $5.74 $5.67 $5.44 $4.08 $2.35 $0.69 $0.45 $0.38 $0.62
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $291 $299 $338 $374 $397 $419 $439 $463 $488 $505
Voice Revenue [US$m] $245 $243 $277 $302 $314 $328 $341 $356 $372 $381
Data Revenue [US$m] $46 $55 $61 $72 $83 $91 $98 $106 $116 $123
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $32 $38 $41 $48 $54 $58 $62 $68 $73 $76
SMS [US$m] $31 $37 $39 $46 $51 $54 $58 $63 $69 $71
MMS [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Email [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $3
Others [US$m] $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Applications Revenue [US$m] $14 $17 $20 $24 $29 $33 $36 $39 $43 $48
Ringtones [US$m] $3 $4 $4 $5 $5 $5 $5 $6 $6 $6
Graphics/Images [US$m] $4 $4 $4 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5
Games [US$m] $2 $3 $4 $6 $8 $10 $11 $12 $15 $19
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $5 $5
Music [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $4 $5 $5 $6 $8 $9 $9 $10 $11 $11
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
PANAMA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 3,600 3,662 3,724 3,787 3,852 3,917 3,984 4,051 4,120 4,190
Households [000] 1,137 1,154 1,171 1,189 1,206 1,225 1,243 1,262 1,280 1,300
Businesses [000] 64 66 69 71 74 76 79 82 84 87
Nominal GDP [US$m] $24,163 $27,053 $31,316 $36,608 $40,701 $45,261 $48,722 $52,662 $57,016 $61,370
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $6,712 $7,388 $8,410 $9,670 $10,570 $11,550 $12,230 $13,000 $13,840 $14,680
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $14,786 $15,822 $17,609 $19,510 $20,820 $22,250 $23,240 $24,350 $25,600 $26,850
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 2.41 3.49 5.88 5.70 4.10 4.00 3.40 3.50 3.60 3.70
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12%
Mobile Users [%] 80% 84% 84% 84% 86% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 131% 158% 185% 186% 188% 189% 189% 190% 190% 189%
Prepaid [%] 122% 145% 169% 171% 174% 173% 173% 172% 171% 171%
Postpaid [%] 10% 13% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17% 18% 18%
Mobile Data Users [%] 88% 136% 163% 165% 168% 168% 168% 169% 169% 168%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 4,718 5,788 6,889 7,027 7,255 7,400 7,541 7,680 7,810 7,928
Movistar [000] 1,635 2,049 2,164 2,457 2,379 2,275 2,202 2,172 2,165 2,170
Cable & Wireless [000] 2,100 2,305 2,454 1,744 1,871 1,964 2,017 2,041 2,057 2,066
Claro [000] 123 365 893 1,238 1,371 1,486 1,606 1,708 1,793 1,863
Digicel [000] 860 1,069 1,378 1,588 1,634 1,675 1,716 1,758 1,796 1,829
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 4,374 5,305 6,283 6,460 6,684 6,794 6,894 6,980 7,053 7,160
Postpaid [000] 343 483 606 568 571 605 647 700 757 768
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 26.5% 33.7% 35.4% 40.3% 37.5% 38.2% 38.8% 39.4% 40.0% 40.6%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 4,718 5,788 6,889 7,027 7,255 7,400 7,541 7,680 7,810 7,928
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 1,964 1,746 1,145 536 369 98 40 20 14 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 1,332 1,859 2,395 2,454 2,244 2,041 1,654 1,341 965 749
GSM/EDGE [000] 633 800 1,026 1,113 1,209 1,190 1,162 1,164 1,149 1,173
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 716 1,383 2,251 2,816 3,255 3,740 4,209 4,546 4,932 5,202
HSPA [000] 0 0 72 109 179 269 351 419 512 539
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 62 125 189 239 264
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 4,448 5,459 6,500 6,633 6,847 6,982 7,114 7,243 7,365 7,473
Business Subscriptions [000] 269 328 389 394 408 418 427 437 446 454
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 3,163 4,977 6,062 6,254 6,457 6,586 6,712 6,835 6,951 7,056
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MMS [000] 236 405 551 587 588 570 522 452 368 280
Email [000] 112 289 482 562 551 529 485 420 341 260
Others [000] 99 133 167 174 184 193 201 210 219 228
Applications
Ringtones [000] 377 521 689 738 798 814 788 722 624 475
Graphics/Images [000] 21 38 69 84 102 104 106 108 109 111
Games [000] 345 474 586 632 689 777 830 730 625 507
Browsing/WAP [000] 142 347 620 873 1,352 1,724 2,143 2,619 3,196 3,893
Music [000] 12 23 45 70 116 166 203 217 176 89
Video [000] 6 12 19 28 57 100 151 207 281 373
Data cards/Modems [000] 16 174 241 388 481 583 654 719 768 795
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 93 97 99 99 98 99 101 103 104 105
Prepaid [units/month] 85 88 89 89 89 90 91 92 93 94
Postpaid [units/month] 202 206 208 207 207 209 211 212 214 216
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 19 22 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 27
Average Monthly SMM [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $11.69 $10.87 $10.86 $10.90 $11.28 $11.33 $11.59 $11.85 $12.17 $12.57
Movistar [US$/month] $10.96 $11.02 $10.11 $9.22 $8.96 $9.11 $9.35 $9.66 $9.91 $10.11
Cable & Wireless [US$/month] $12.64 $10.71 $11.11 $12.65 $14.68 $14.00 $14.13 $14.22 $14.31 $14.49
Claro [US$/month] $10.20 $10.31 $10.61 $10.29 $10.55 $10.84 $11.10 $11.45 $12.05 $12.91
Digicel [US$/month] $10.66 $11.10 $11.77 $11.47 $11.53 $11.79 $11.98 $12.25 $12.56 $13.00
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $10.72 $9.73 $10.18 $10.26 $10.23 $9.75 $9.55 $9.33 $9.07 $8.81
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $24.64 $24.19 $18.08 $17.81 $17.48 $17.49 $17.53 $17.55 $17.52 $17.47
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $9.65 $8.88 $8.85 $8.82 $8.82 $8.46 $8.32 $8.18 $8.00 $7.81
Data ARPS [US$/month] $2.04 $1.99 $2.00 $2.07 $2.46 $2.87 $3.26 $3.68 $4.17 $4.76
Messaging [US$/month] $1.51 $1.30 $1.09 $0.97 $0.98 $0.97 $0.95 $0.94 $0.92 $0.91
SMS [US$/month] $1.34 $1.15 $0.92 $0.84 $0.84 $0.84 $0.84 $0.84 $0.84 $0.84
MMS [US$/month] $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Email [US$/month] $0.11 $0.10 $0.12 $0.10 $0.10 $0.09 $0.08 $0.07 $0.05 $0.04
Others [US$/month] $0.05 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Applications [US$/month] $0.53 $0.69 $0.91 $1.10 $1.48 $1.91 $2.31 $2.74 $3.24 $3.85
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.18 $0.16 $0.14 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.13 $0.12 $0.11 $0.09
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Games [US$/month] $0.07 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.05
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.14 $0.25 $0.40 $0.54 $0.78 $1.10 $1.42 $1.81 $2.30 $2.92
Music [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00
Video [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.01 $0.01
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.12 $0.22 $0.30 $0.37 $0.49 $0.58 $0.65 $0.70 $0.74 $0.76
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $27.27 $17.47 $17.48 $15.26 $14.66 $14.73 $15.06 $14.82 $14.60 $14.82
Non-3G [US$/month] $9.85 $9.22 $8.12 $8.26 $8.56 $7.76 $6.66 $6.44 $6.50 $6.08
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $507 $685 $826 $910 $966 $996 $1,039 $1,083 $1,131 $1,187
Voice Revenue [US$m] $419 $560 $673 $737 $756 $744 $746 $747 $744 $737
Data Revenue [US$m] $89 $126 $152 $173 $211 $253 $293 $336 $387 $450
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $66 $82 $83 $81 $84 $85 $86 $86 $86 $86
SMS [US$m] $58 $73 $70 $70 $72 $74 $75 $77 $78 $79
MMS [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Email [US$m] $5 $6 $9 $9 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4
Others [US$m] $2 $2 $3 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2
Applications Revenue [US$m] $23 $44 $69 $92 $127 $168 $207 $250 $301 $364
Ringtones [US$m] $8 $10 $11 $10 $11 $11 $11 $11 $10 $8
Graphics/Images [US$m] $1 $1 $1 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2
Games [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $5 $5 $6 $7 $6 $6 $5
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $6 $16 $30 $45 $67 $97 $128 $165 $214 $276
Music [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1 $1 $0
Video [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1 $1
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $5 $14 $23 $31 $42 $51 $59 $64 $69 $72
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
PARAGUAY
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 6,340 6,450 6,561 6,672 6,785 6,898 7,012 7,126 7,241 7,357
Households [000] 1,544 1,580 1,617 1,655 1,693 1,733 1,774 1,815 1,858 1,901
Businesses [000] 181 185 189 194 198 204 211 217 224 231
Nominal GDP [US$m] $15,934 $20,048 $25,100 $24,595 $27,897 $29,533 $31,873 $34,192 $36,626 $39,396
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $2,513 $3,108 $3,830 $3,690 $4,110 $4,280 $4,550 $4,800 $5,060 $5,350
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $5,248 $5,910 $6,190 $6,120 $6,850 $7,160 $7,500 $7,830 $8,190 $8,610
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 2.59 4.65 8.25 3.68 2.30 4.20 4.10 4.60 3.80 3.80
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 4,965 4,735 4,191 4,425 4,315 4,498 4,580 4,705 4,805 4,892
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Mobile Users [%] 75% 77% 79% 83% 85% 87% 88% 89% 89% 90%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 87% 91% 97% 105% 111% 115% 118% 120% 121% 122%
Prepaid [%] 77% 79% 81% 86% 89% 90% 91% 91% 91% 91%
Postpaid [%] 10% 13% 16% 19% 23% 25% 27% 29% 30% 31%
Mobile Data Users [%] 66% 71% 76% 80% 87% 92% 96% 98% 99% 101%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 5,497 5,900 6,365 7,034 7,546 7,937 8,253 8,530 8,781 9,010
Tigo [000] 3,048 3,441 3,614 3,949 4,186 4,347 4,450 4,522 4,574 4,611
Nucleo [000] 1,794 1,868 2,141 2,294 2,484 2,640 2,775 2,899 3,017 3,130
Vox [000] 180 156 210 380 417 436 447 455 461 466
Claro [000] 475 434 400 411 460 514 581 654 729 803
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 4,892 5,084 5,305 5,735 6,016 6,200 6,358 6,492 6,606 6,701
Postpaid [000] 605 815 1,059 1,299 1,530 1,736 1,895 2,038 2,175 2,309
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 36.7% 38.6% 32.9% 34.5% 36.8% 36.2% 35.7% 35.2% 34.7% 34.2%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 5,497 5,900 6,365 7,034 7,546 7,937 8,253 8,530 8,781 9,010
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 3,386 3,449 3,407 3,389 3,124 2,784 2,280 1,689 973 281
TDMA [000] 152 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 1,286 1,412 1,505 1,618 1,665 1,681 1,679 1,663 1,626 1,538
GSM/EDGE [000] 385 503 617 730 785 823 853 873 865 830
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 155 205 281 384 511 667 880 1,154 1,502 1,842
HSPA [000] 133 330 555 913 1,403 1,843 2,302 2,788 3,335 3,925
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 58 140 258 364 479 594
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 5,186 5,575 6,008 6,645 7,130 7,495 7,788 8,041 8,269 8,477
Business Subscriptions [000] 311 324 357 389 417 441 466 489 512 534
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 4,185 4,552 4,954 5,344 5,886 6,349 6,727 6,980 7,203 7,410
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MMS [000] 1,118 1,253 1,355 1,482 1,660 1,825 1,981 2,133 2,239 2,343
Email [000] 288 360 450 650 868 1,032 1,238 1,471 1,742 2,056
Others [000] 209 258 300 347 391 431 471 511 553 595
Applications
Ringtones [000] 899 972 1,049 1,110 1,207 1,270 1,321 1,365 1,405 1,442
Graphics/Images [000] 73 91 98 108 121 127 132 136 140 144
Games [000] 225 304 361 451 558 595 619 631 641 649
Browsing/WAP [000] 200 300 400 650 981 1,349 1,733 2,114 2,480 2,825
Music [000] 56 73 91 139 219 262 292 314 329 345
Video [000] 32 33 34 97 151 214 263 304 338 364
Data cards/Modems [000] 56 122 177 240 279 308 330 347 361 374
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 59 69 78 87 95 102 106 110 112 115
Prepaid [units/month] 43 48 51 54 57 59 60 61 61 61
Postpaid [units/month] 194 216 229 243 255 262 266 269 272 275
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 94 184 233 242 257 274 289 300 310 317
Average Monthly SMM [units/month] 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $8.57 $9.52 $11.17 $10.35 $11.14 $11.24 $11.32 $11.39 $11.44 $11.56
Tigo [US$/month] $11.12 $11.95 $14.02 $12.69 $13.19 $13.07 $12.98 $12.89 $12.83 $12.83
Nucleo [US$/month] $5.11 $5.92 $6.96 $6.92 $8.26 $8.64 $9.02 $9.35 $9.64 $9.99
Vox [US$/month] $6.21 $6.57 $7.34 $7.20 $7.50 $7.89 $8.34 $8.79 $9.13 $9.53
Claro [US$/month] $7.08 $7.73 $8.99 $9.54 $11.06 $11.69 $11.77 $11.76 $11.56 $11.43
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $5.23 $5.92 $6.74 $6.54 $6.94 $6.80 $6.69 $6.49 $6.33 $6.11
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $36.77 $34.77 $35.70 $28.17 $28.57 $27.83 $27.34 $27.39 $27.34 $27.71
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $6.94 $7.23 $7.86 $6.85 $6.97 $6.72 $6.45 $6.17 $5.95 $5.76
Data ARPS [US$/month] $1.62 $2.28 $3.31 $3.50 $4.17 $4.52 $4.87 $5.22 $5.49 $5.79
Messaging [US$/month] $1.12 $1.42 $2.00 $1.93 $2.16 $2.33 $2.51 $2.70 $2.85 $3.01
SMS [US$/month] $1.03 $1.29 $1.80 $1.72 $1.90 $2.05 $2.20 $2.38 $2.50 $2.63
MMS [US$/month] $0.02 $0.03 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
Email [US$/month] $0.07 $0.10 $0.15 $0.17 $0.21 $0.23 $0.25 $0.27 $0.30 $0.33
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Applications [US$/month] $0.50 $0.86 $1.31 $1.57 $2.00 $2.18 $2.36 $2.52 $2.64 $2.78
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.15 $0.17 $0.19 $0.20 $0.23 $0.22 $0.21 $0.21 $0.20 $0.21
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07
Games [US$/month] $0.05 $0.08 $0.12 $0.12 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.15 $0.15 $0.15
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.11 $0.15 $0.20 $0.26 $0.38 $0.52 $0.66 $0.81 $0.95 $1.07
Music [US$/month] $0.04 $0.06 $0.09 $0.10 $0.15 $0.17 $0.19 $0.20 $0.20 $0.20
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.11 $0.34 $0.63 $0.81 $0.98 $1.00 $1.02 $1.02 $1.02 $1.01
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $9.56 $10.63 $12.49 $11.58 $12.48 $12.60 $12.71 $12.80 $12.87 $13.02
Non-3G [US$/month] $8.53 $9.43 $11.00 $10.11 $10.75 $10.65 $10.48 $10.18 $9.65 $8.77
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $552 $651 $822 $832 $974 $1,044 $1,100 $1,147 $1,188 $1,234
Voice Revenue [US$m] $447 $495 $578 $550 $609 $624 $626 $621 $618 $615
Data Revenue [US$m] $105 $156 $244 $282 $365 $420 $473 $525 $571 $618
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $72 $97 $147 $155 $189 $217 $243 $272 $296 $322
SMS [US$m] $66 $88 $133 $138 $166 $190 $214 $239 $260 $281
MMS [US$m] $1 $2 $3 $4 $4 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5
Email [US$m] $5 $7 $11 $13 $19 $22 $24 $28 $31 $35
Others [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Applications Revenue [US$m] $32 $59 $97 $126 $175 $203 $230 $253 $275 $297
Ringtones [US$m] $9 $12 $14 $16 $20 $20 $21 $21 $21 $23
Graphics/Images [US$m] $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $6 $7 $7 $7 $7
Games [US$m] $3 $6 $9 $10 $14 $15 $15 $15 $16 $16
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $7 $10 $15 $21 $34 $48 $65 $81 $98 $115
Music [US$m] $3 $4 $7 $8 $13 $16 $18 $20 $21 $22
Video [US$m] $0 $1 $1 $1 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $7
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $7 $23 $47 $65 $86 $93 $99 $103 $106 $108
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
PERU
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 29,555 29,958 30,360 30,770 31,170 31,570 32,000 32,320 32,640 32,950
Households [000] 6,486 6,560 6,635 6,711 6,787 6,865 6,943 7,022 7,102 7,183
Businesses [000] 959 979 1,000 1,021 1,043 1,067 1,091 1,116 1,143 1,170
Nominal GDP [US$m] $126,950 $153,810 $176,550 $199,380 $208,700 $222,400 $239,000 $258,300 $276,800 $296,200
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $4,295 $5,134 $5,810 $6,480 $6,700 $7,050 $7,470 $7,990 $8,480 $8,990
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $8,420 $9,150 $9,830 $10,500 $11,090 $11,810 $12,600 $13,490 $14,480 $15,500
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 2.94 1.53 3.37 3.66 2.90 2.80 3.00 3.00 2.90 2.90
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 3.01 2.83 2.75 2.64 2.70 2.75 2.76 2.79 2.83 2.87
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9.2% 8.8%
Mobile Users [%] 60% 66% 74% 79% 76% 80% 81% 82% 83% 85%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 70% 78% 88% 97% 96% 102% 107% 112% 116% 121%
Prepaid [%] 61% 63% 69% 73% 67% 71% 73% 76% 79% 82%
Postpaid [%] 9% 14% 18% 23% 29% 32% 34% 36% 38% 39%
Mobile Data Users [%] 41% 47% 54% 60% 65% 70% 74% 78% 82% 86%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 20,610 23,321 26,687 29,756 29,781 32,274 34,284 36,151 37,969 39,748
Movistar [000] 11,458 12,507 13,998 15,197 16,053 17,091 17,829 18,428 18,961 19,431
Claro [000] 8,311 9,686 11,254 12,881 11,807 12,807 13,600 14,368 15,088 15,797
Olo [000] 0 0 0 18 49 79 114 149 183 218
Nextel [000] 841 1,128 1,435 1,660 1,872 2,194 2,532 2,883 3,246 3,613
Viettel [000] 0 0 0 0 0 103 209 322 490 688
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 15 31 64 134 153
Virgin Mobile [000] 0 0 0 0 0 15 31 64 134 153
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 17,897 18,982 21,097 22,568 20,832 22,293 23,444 24,534 25,657 26,872
Postpaid [000] 2,713 4,339 5,590 7,188 8,949 9,981 10,840 11,617 12,312 12,875
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 45.2% 42.6% 45.3% 50.8% 56.8% 49.5% 47.8% 46.3% 45.4% 44.7%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 20,610 23,321 26,687 29,756 29,781 32,274 34,284 36,151 37,969 39,748
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 839 1,077 1,291 1,444 1,535 1,582 1,512 1,310 1,010 633
GSM [000] 5,302 5,066 3,995 3,607 1,948 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 115 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 13,235 15,163 17,265 17,846 16,698 16,148 13,970 9,881 5,635 3,656
GSM/EDGE [000] 914 1,453 2,701 3,864 4,605 5,750 4,896 4,634 3,736 1,420
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 176 415 1,069 2,204 3,464 5,634 8,361 11,631 15,189 17,204
HSPA [000] 29 147 366 773 1,482 2,939 5,059 7,867 10,910 14,067
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 18 49 79 114 149 183 218
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 0 142 372 680 1,306 2,550
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 18,601 20,825 23,784 26,493 26,321 28,329 29,852 31,201 32,482 33,704
Business Subscriptions [000] 2,009 2,496 2,903 3,263 3,459 3,945 4,432 4,950 5,487 6,043
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
Messaging
SMS [000] 12,045 14,175 16,305 18,545 20,416 22,148 23,762 25,307 26,819 28,300
MMS [000] 1,343 1,596 1,918 2,046 2,085 2,033 1,944 1,640 1,206 757
Email [000] 685 741 930 1,232 1,394 1,495 1,572 1,641 1,707 1,769
Others [000] 571 679 816 1,092 1,147 1,306 1,456 1,612 1,778 1,955
Applications
Ringtones [000] 1,626 1,915 2,241 2,395 2,469 2,488 2,379 2,132 1,792 1,407
Graphics/Images [000] 1,233 1,423 1,677 1,879 1,824 1,878 1,796 1,704 1,432 1,049
Games [000] 642 742 874 1,013 1,034 1,087 1,040 987 933 879
Browsing/WAP [000] 171 640 1,025 1,666 3,401 5,159 7,125 9,767 12,310 14,755
Music [000] 455 649 895 1,374 1,664 1,749 1,672 1,411 1,037 651
Video [000] 204 301 482 698 978 1,325 1,689 2,137 2,693 3,524
Data cards/Modems [000] 80 191 371 733 953 1,239 1,514 1,772 2,010 2,230
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 103 103 113 115 126 134 137 140 142 142
Prepaid [units/month] 77 72 75 74 75 77 78 79 80 80
Postpaid [units/month] 275 260 267 258 261 265 269 274 276 275
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 16 17 17 22 24 26 26 27 26 26
Average Monthly SMM [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $8.02 $8.77 $8.81 $9.19 $9.68 $10.18 $10.26 $10.42 $10.55 $10.61
Movistar [US$/month] $7.41 $7.83 $8.21 $8.64 $8.96 $9.18 $9.25 $9.44 $9.61 $9.71
Claro [US$/month] $7.08 $8.36 $8.07 $8.85 $9.78 $10.81 $10.99 $11.13 $11.23 $11.30
Olo [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $23.31 $34.56 $32.77 $26.87 $23.26 $20.74 $17.47
Nextel [US$/month] $26.64 $23.87 $20.94 $16.91 $14.84 $13.89 $13.35 $13.33 $13.27 $13.25
Viettel [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $4.37 $3.93 $3.96 $4.11 $3.99
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type [US$/month]
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $5.41 $5.05 $4.67 $4.73 $4.65 $4.39 $4.26 $4.14 $4.03 $3.95
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $25.70 $28.23 $25.51 $24.38 $23.05 $23.13 $23.18 $23.54 $23.88 $24.15
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $7.05 $7.77 $7.51 $7.39 $7.34 $7.26 $6.89 $6.60 $6.32 $6.09
Data ARPS [US$/month] $0.97 $1.00 $1.29 $1.79 $2.34 $2.92 $3.37 $3.82 $4.23 $4.52
Messaging [US$/month] $0.75 $0.55 $0.58 $0.72 $0.76 $0.77 $0.74 $0.71 $0.67 $0.61
SMS [US$/month] $0.71 $0.49 $0.53 $0.66 $0.69 $0.70 $0.69 $0.66 $0.62 $0.57
MMS [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01
Email [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Others [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02
Applications [US$/month] $0.22 $0.46 $0.71 $1.07 $1.58 $2.16 $2.62 $3.11 $3.56 $3.91
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 $0.01
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00
Games [US$/month] $0.04 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.02 $0.15 $0.28 $0.48 $0.81 $1.25 $1.61 $2.01 $2.39 $2.68
Music [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02
Video [US$/month] $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.11
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.10 $0.18 $0.30 $0.45 $0.62 $0.74 $0.85 $0.94 $1.00 $1.05
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $38.51 $36.83 $24.65 $20.21 $18.77 $17.41 $14.93 $13.03 $12.87 $12.20
Non-3G [US$/month] $7.83 $8.27 $8.15 $8.25 $8.27 $8.11 $7.84 $7.96 $6.31 $4.51
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $1,881 $2,311 $2,642 $3,112 $3,457 $3,790 $4,097 $4,405 $4,691 $4,946
Voice Revenue [US$m] $1,653 $2,047 $2,254 $2,504 $2,621 $2,702 $2,751 $2,789 $2,810 $2,839
Data Revenue [US$m] $228 $264 $388 $607 $836 $1,088 $1,345 $1,616 $1,881 $2,107
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $176 $144 $175 $244 $271 $285 $297 $301 $297 $286
SMS [US$m] $167 $130 $160 $222 $248 $262 $274 $278 $275 $266
MMS [US$m] $3 $5 $6 $9 $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $3
Email [US$m] $4 $5 $5 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7 $7
Others [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $6 $7 $7 $8 $9 $10 $11
Applications Revenue [US$m] $51 $121 $213 $363 $565 $803 $1,048 $1,315 $1,584 $1,821
Ringtones [US$m] $7 $7 $8 $8 $9 $8 $8 $7 $6 $5
Graphics/Images [US$m] $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $3 $3 $2
Games [US$m] $9 $13 $13 $14 $14 $14 $13 $13 $12 $11
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $5 $40 $85 $164 $290 $466 $642 $847 $1,063 $1,251
Music [US$m] $3 $5 $6 $10 $14 $16 $16 $15 $12 $9
Video [US$m] $2 $5 $7 $11 $15 $20 $26 $33 $41 $52
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $23 $48 $89 $152 $220 $275 $338 $396 $446 $490
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
PUERTO RICO
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 3,740 3,726 3,707 3,688 3,681 3,676 3,672 3,670 3,667 3,663
Households [000] 1,357 1,377 1,390 1,403 1,414 1,424 1,432 1,441 1,455 1,470
Businesses [000] 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74
Nominal GDP [US$m] $95,708 $95,796 $95,884 $95,971 $96,059 $96,147 $96,236 $96,324 $96,412 $96,500
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $25,588 $25,712 $25,864 $26,023 $26,099 $26,157 $26,208 $26,245 $26,295 $26,345
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $20,682 $21,238 $21,809 $22,395 $22,997 $23,615 $24,250 $24,902 $25,572 $26,259
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 4.20 7.00 7.07 7.14 7.21 7.28 8.35 9.61 11.05 23.75
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 24% 25% 24% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 15% 15%
Mobile Users [%] 68% 72% 76% 77% 78% 79% 79% 80% 81% 82%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 73% 79% 83% 89% 94% 100% 106% 112% 119% 126%
Prepaid [%] 12% 17% 20% 23% 26% 29% 33% 36% 40% 45%
Postpaid [%] 61% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 73% 76% 78% 81%
Mobile Data Users [%] 62% 69% 72% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 101% 107%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 2,716 2,934 3,108 3,271 3,461 3,663 3,879 4,110 4,352 4,609
Claro [000] 664 745 788 824 862 898 946 1,002 1,063 1,129
Centennial [000] 420 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AT&T [000] 894 1,358 1,416 1,490 1,590 1,706 1,826 1,953 2,088 2,216
Open Mobile [000] 145 177 212 244 277 309 341 371 401 432
T-Mobile [000] 409 461 504 529 554 580 607 636 665 702
Sprint [000] 182 194 190 184 177 169 160 148 135 130
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 5 6 9 11 12 14 14 15 15 15
Movida [000] 5 6 9 11 12 14 14 15 15 15
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 448 619 739 840 953 1,074 1,202 1,338 1,483 1,637
Postpaid [000] 2,268 2,315 2,369 2,432 2,508 2,589 2,677 2,772 2,870 2,972
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 43.1% 42.8% 43.0% 43.9% 43.8% 43.7% 43.6% 43.6% 43.5% 43.5%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 2,716 2,934 3,108 3,271 3,461 3,663 3,879 4,110 4,352 4,609
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 225 139 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 536 284 188 142 111 88 87 78 43 11
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 622 735 794 572 304 182 66 40 0 0
GSM/EDGE [000] 191 290 319 348 326 155 135 61 54 57
CDMA 1X [000] 380 191 136 137 144 137 118 97 88 95
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 301 195 122 120 161 205 233 263 284 296
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 294 719 977 1,221 1,490 1,746 1,888 1,948 1,943 1,945
HSPA [000] 165 380 528 691 866 1,061 1,216 1,393 1,553 1,647
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 19 28 35 42 48 44 40 39
LTE [000] 0 0 4 12 22 47 87 185 347 519
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 2,426 2,537 2,660 2,786 2,950 3,124 3,310 3,507 3,713 3,932
Business Subscriptions [000] 290 397 448 485 511 539 569 603 639 677
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 2,309 2,582 2,672 2,780 2,941 3,114 3,297 3,493 3,699 3,917
MMS [000] 760 851 921 1,014 1,107 1,209 1,319 1,438 1,567 1,659
Email [000] 727 864 995 1,166 1,233 1,306 1,383 1,465 1,551 1,642
Others [000] 300 421 574 794 840 889 942 998 1,373 1,745
Applications
Ringtones [000] 1,091 1,408 1,622 1,900 2,111 2,381 2,599 2,795 3,003 3,180
Graphics/Images [000] 479 704 848 993 969 1,062 1,237 1,315 1,349 1,429
Games [000] 407 587 676 785 900 1,062 1,293 1,534 1,799 1,905
Browsing/WAP [000] 462 675 829 1,014 1,246 1,403 1,552 1,685 1,828 1,936
Music [000] 225 270 308 353 396 409 427 452 479 507
Video [000] 158 218 273 333 393 455 519 585 653 723
Data cards/Modems [000] 120 170 234 324 440 555 665 774 1,005 1,064
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 1,154 1,275 1,358 1,335 1,318 1,302 1,287 1,273 1,261 1,248
Prepaid [units/month] 144 144 146 147 149 150 152 153 154 155
Postpaid [units/month] 1,335 1,539 1,710 1,726 1,743 1,760 1,778 1,795 1,814 1,832
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 35 37 39 40 40 41 42 43 44 45
Average Monthly SMM [units/month] 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $42.88 $41.92 $41.78 $40.62 $40.34 $40.61 $40.78 $40.83 $41.23 $41.34
Claro [US$/month] $51.00 $42.00 $40.70 $40.16 $40.11 $40.72 $41.49 $42.04 $43.18 $43.45
Centennial [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.00
AT&T [US$/month] $57.37 $52.50 $46.26 $45.05 $44.50 $44.67 $44.65 $44.50 $44.66 $44.54
Open Mobile [US$/month] $5.00 $5.10 $13.75 $13.72 $13.76 $13.70 $13.63 $13.56 $13.63 $13.62
T-Mobile [US$/month] $48.99 $44.73 $39.93 $38.88 $39.46 $40.01 $40.51 $40.96 $41.72 $42.23
Sprint [US$/month] $58.74 $50.19 $46.75 $45.80 $46.97 $48.88 $49.86 $50.66 $51.21 $54.45
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $10.11 $12.91 $24.48 $28.27 $29.22 $31.42 $33.23 $34.09 $36.12 $36.54
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $48.76 $49.02 $46.79 $44.68 $44.37 $44.27 $44.04 $43.97 $43.79 $43.91
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $36.82 $35.12 $32.54 $29.98 $28.20 $27.12 $26.11 $25.11 $24.15 $23.23
Data ARPS [US$/month] $6.06 $7.81 $9.24 $10.64 $12.14 $13.49 $14.67 $15.72 $17.08 $18.12
Messaging [US$/month] $3.15 $3.46 $3.66 $3.80 $3.89 $3.93 $3.95 $3.98 $4.08 $4.21
SMS [US$/month] $2.30 $2.40 $2.46 $2.41 $2.37 $2.35 $2.32 $2.30 $2.27 $2.25
MMS [US$/month] $0.30 $0.35 $0.39 $0.43 $0.48 $0.53 $0.59 $0.65 $0.72 $0.80
Email [US$/month] $0.48 $0.54 $0.61 $0.68 $0.72 $0.73 $0.72 $0.72 $0.71 $0.70
Others [US$/month] $0.06 $0.16 $0.21 $0.28 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.32 $0.37 $0.46
Applications [US$/month] $2.91 $4.36 $5.58 $6.84 $8.24 $9.56 $10.72 $11.74 $13.00 $13.90
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.30 $0.35 $0.40 $0.44 $0.47 $0.50 $0.52 $0.53 $0.54 $0.54
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.24 $0.33 $0.41 $0.48 $0.49 $0.49 $0.54 $0.58 $0.59 $0.59
Games [US$/month] $0.30 $0.44 $0.60 $0.73 $0.87 $1.03 $1.24 $1.46 $1.67 $1.78
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.91 $1.23 $1.66 $2.11 $2.64 $3.18 $3.65 $4.13 $4.65 $5.20
Music [US$/month] $0.12 $0.20 $0.23 $0.26 $0.28 $0.29 $0.29 $0.29 $0.30 $0.31
Video [US$/month] $0.06 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.09 $0.10 $0.10 $0.11 $0.12
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.97 $1.76 $2.22 $2.76 $3.40 $3.98 $4.38 $4.64 $5.14 $5.36
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $55.74 $52.40 $50.13 $46.71 $44.78 $44.67 $43.63 $42.87 $42.67 $42.79
Non-3G [US$/month] $38.86 $37.52 $33.84 $32.09 $30.45 $24.68 $21.40 $18.98 $16.18 $5.49
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $1,353 $1,455 $1,515 $1,555 $1,629 $1,736 $1,845 $1,957 $2,093 $2,223
Voice Revenue [US$m] $1,162 $1,190 $1,180 $1,148 $1,139 $1,159 $1,181 $1,204 $1,226 $1,249
Data Revenue [US$m] $191 $265 $335 $407 $490 $577 $664 $754 $867 $974
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $99 $117 $133 $146 $157 $168 $179 $191 $207 $227
SMS [US$m] $73 $81 $89 $92 $96 $100 $105 $110 $115 $121
MMS [US$m] $10 $12 $14 $17 $19 $23 $27 $31 $37 $43
Email [US$m] $15 $18 $22 $26 $29 $31 $33 $34 $36 $38
Others [US$m] $2 $5 $8 $11 $13 $14 $15 $15 $19 $25
Applications Revenue [US$m] $92 $148 $202 $262 $333 $409 $485 $563 $660 $747
Ringtones [US$m] $10 $12 $14 $17 $19 $21 $24 $26 $27 $29
Graphics/Images [US$m] $8 $11 $15 $18 $20 $21 $25 $28 $30 $32
Games [US$m] $10 $15 $22 $28 $35 $44 $56 $70 $85 $95
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $29 $42 $60 $81 $107 $136 $165 $198 $236 $280
Music [US$m] $4 $7 $8 $10 $11 $12 $13 $14 $15 $16
Video [US$m] $2 $2 $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $5 $6 $6
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $31 $60 $81 $106 $137 $170 $198 $222 $261 $288
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
URUGUAY
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 3,345 3,357 3,369 3,381 3,392 3,404 3,416 3,427 3,439 3,450
Households [000] 1,380 1,386 1,390 1,393 1,394 1,396 1,397 1,399 1,400 1,402
Businesses [000] 152 154 155 157 158 160 162 163 165 167
Nominal GDP [US$m] $30,229 $38,846 $46,435 $49,919 $55,578 $57,042 $61,098 $66,220 $72,554 $79,274
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $9,037 $11,573 $13,785 $14,766 $16,383 $16,756 $17,887 $19,321 $21,099 $22,978
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $12,677 $13,928 $15,460 $15,880 $16,730 $17,630 $18,600 $19,710 $20,930 $22,230
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 7.06 6.70 8.09 8.10 8.30 7.80 7.10 6.60 6.70 6.40
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 22.57 20.06 19.31 20.31 20.58 22.54 23.50 24.16 24.59 25.04
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 29% 29% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 33% 31% 28%
Mobile Users [%] 78% 82% 85% 88% 89% 89% 89% 90% 90% 91%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 123% 132% 141% 148% 152% 156% 161% 165% 169% 173%
Prepaid [%] 92% 96% 99% 101% 104% 106% 108% 110% 112% 114%
Postpaid [%] 30% 36% 42% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 57% 58%
Mobile Data Users [%] 94% 108% 120% 132% 141% 146% 151% 156% 160% 165%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 4,112 4,437 4,757 4,995 5,168 5,326 5,489 5,653 5,814 5,967
Ancel [000] 1,720 1,930 2,181 2,346 2,475 2,590 2,704 2,813 2,912 2,999
Movistar [000] 1,615 1,708 1,819 1,844 1,859 1,879 1,908 1,944 1,989 2,040
Claro [000] 776 799 758 806 835 858 878 896 913 928
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 3,092 3,221 3,338 3,427 3,511 3,594 3,683 3,773 3,863 3,950
Postpaid [000] 1,020 1,216 1,420 1,568 1,657 1,732 1,806 1,880 1,951 2,017
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 28.3% 28.3% 27.9% 27.6% 27.2% 26.9% 26.6% 26.3% 26.1% 25.8%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 4,112 4,437 4,757 4,995 5,168 5,326 5,489 5,653 5,814 5,967
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 2,551 2,466 2,140 1,658 1,208 745 393 92 37 9
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 129 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 706 876 1,080 1,228 1,284 1,288 1,288 1,278 1,263 1,160
GSM/EDGE [000] 586 725 857 1,005 1,088 1,109 1,073 1,102 1,028 955
CDMA 1X [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 139 304 420 560 733 902 1,012 1,092 1,134 1,170
HSPA [000] 0 67 260 539 832 1,204 1,583 1,886 2,110 2,380
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 5 25 79 140 203 241 292
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 3,865 4,169 4,470 4,690 4,849 4,993 5,142 5,292 5,439 5,579
Business Subscriptions [000] 246 268 288 305 320 333 347 361 375 388
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 3,130 3,631 4,031 4,450 4,775 4,982 5,160 5,341 5,515 5,682
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© 2013 Client Confidential
MMS [000] 41 35 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 29
Email [000] 851 1,010 1,207 1,448 1,688 1,914 2,169 2,458 2,780 3,139
Others [000] 84 93 103 115 124 130 137 144 151 158
Applications
Ringtones [000] 825 917 959 959 879 799 714 622 523 447
Graphics/Images [000] 227 270 280 252 207 160 110 68 41 12
Games [000] 48 54 57 61 64 64 65 66 66 66
Browsing/WAP [000] 180 240 354 511 697 908 1,146 1,417 1,719 2,064
Music [000] 20 112 148 177 206 233 253 273 295 318
Video [000] 22 31 44 53 56 56 57 57 58 58
Data cards/Modems [000] 179 305 431 547 643 682 700 714 727 739
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 92 99 104 110 113 114 116 117 118 119
Prepaid [units/month] 59 59 59 59 58 58 57 57 57 56
Postpaid [units/month] 201 212 218 227 230 233 236 238 239 241
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 101 102 104 105 105 107 108 108 109 109
Average Monthly SMM [units/month] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $12.87 $13.63 $13.86 $13.22 $13.55 $13.44 $13.59 $13.71 $13.88 $14.13
Ancel [US$/month] $13.20 $13.50 $13.63 $12.56 $12.78 $12.72 $12.82 $12.94 $13.17 $13.48
Movistar [US$/month] $13.38 $14.45 $14.40 $14.22 $14.62 $14.49 $14.73 $14.88 $14.98 $15.12
Claro [US$/month] $11.20 $12.22 $13.22 $12.79 $13.39 $13.29 $13.43 $13.57 $13.72 $14.10
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $6.75 $6.60 $6.45 $5.65 $5.49 $5.24 $5.13 $5.03 $4.97 $4.95
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $32.85 $33.49 $32.29 $30.35 $30.89 $30.65 $30.98 $31.26 $31.64 $32.23
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $9.44 $9.29 $8.87 $8.20 $8.13 $7.89 $7.85 $7.79 $7.74 $7.72
Data ARPS [US$/month] $3.44 $4.34 $4.99 $5.02 $5.42 $5.55 $5.74 $5.92 $6.14 $6.41
Messaging [US$/month] $2.07 $2.18 $2.22 $2.11 $2.12 $2.06 $2.05 $2.03 $2.01 $2.00
SMS [US$/month] $1.85 $1.91 $1.91 $1.81 $1.81 $1.74 $1.72 $1.69 $1.67 $1.64
MMS [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Email [US$/month] $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08
Others [US$/month] $0.18 $0.23 $0.25 $0.24 $0.26 $0.26 $0.27 $0.27 $0.28 $0.28
Applications [US$/month] $1.37 $2.16 $2.77 $2.91 $3.30 $3.50 $3.69 $3.89 $4.12 $4.41
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.16 $0.20 $0.24 $0.23 $0.19 $0.15 $0.13 $0.10 $0.08 $0.07
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.07 $0.10 $0.11 $0.11 $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.04 $0.02 $0.01
Games [US$/month] $0.04 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.34 $0.44 $0.51 $0.59 $0.79 $1.00 $1.25 $1.53 $1.84 $2.18
Music [US$/month] $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 $0.07 $0.07 $0.08 $0.08 $0.08 $0.09 $0.09
Video [US$/month] $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.14 $0.11 $0.08 $0.07 $0.05 $0.04 $0.04
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.60 $1.19 $1.62 $1.72 $1.97 $2.04 $2.05 $2.02 $1.99 $1.97
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $32.18 $34.08 $34.64 $31.99 $29.67 $25.61 $23.04 $21.74 $21.12 $20.76
Non-3G [US$/month] $12.19 $12.34 $11.18 $9.02 $7.73 $6.61 $5.70 $4.63 $3.82 $3.23
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $590 $699 $764 $774 $826 $847 $882 $917 $955 $999
Voice Revenue [US$m] $432 $477 $489 $480 $496 $497 $509 $521 $533 $546
Data Revenue [US$m] $157 $223 $275 $294 $330 $350 $373 $396 $422 $453
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $95 $112 $122 $123 $129 $129 $133 $136 $139 $141
SMS [US$m] $85 $98 $105 $106 $110 $109 $111 $113 $115 $116
MMS [US$m] $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Email [US$m] $2 $2 $3 $3 $3 $4 $4 $5 $5 $6
Others [US$m] $8 $12 $14 $14 $16 $16 $17 $18 $19 $20
Applications Revenue [US$m] $63 $111 $153 $170 $201 $220 $240 $260 $284 $312
Ringtones [US$m] $7 $10 $13 $13 $12 $10 $8 $7 $6 $5
Graphics/Images [US$m] $3 $5 $6 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1
Games [US$m] $2 $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4 $4
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $16 $22 $28 $34 $48 $63 $81 $103 $127 $154
Music [US$m] $2 $3 $4 $4 $4 $5 $5 $6 $6 $6
Video [US$m] $5 $7 $9 $8 $7 $5 $4 $4 $3 $3
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $28 $61 $89 $101 $120 $129 $133 $135 $137 $139
© 2013 Client Confidential
MOBILE DATA — DECEMBER 2013
VENEZUELA
Units 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population [000] 28,182 28,631 29,072 29,517 29,960 30,410 30,870 31,330 31,800 32,280
Households [000] 6,395 6,498 6,603 6,709 6,817 6,927 7,038 7,152 7,267 7,384
Businesses [000] 552 547 541 536 520 515 510 504 499 494
Nominal GDP [US$m] $329,420 $393,750 $316,500 $382,450 $370,600 $465,900 $579,300 $530,100 $513,300 $494,700
Nominal GDP Per Capita [US$] $11,572 $13,753 $10,887 $12,957 $12,370 $15,320 $18,770 $16,920 $16,140 $15,330
PPP Adjusted GDP per Capita [US$] $12,420 $12,190 $12,760 $13,500 $13,640 $13,790 $13,920 $14,290 $14,680 $15,110
Consumer Price Inflation [%] 27.08 28.19 26.09 21.07 38.80 36.10 29.10 29.80 29.10 27.40
Local Currency / US$ [LCU / US$] 2.15 2.58 4.29 4.29 6.29 6.54 6.79 9.28 12.38 16.50
MOBILE PENETRATION OF POPULATION
Main Lines [%] 24% 24% 25% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 21%
Mobile Users [%] 76% 77% 79% 80% 81% 83% 84% 84% 85% 86%
Mobile Subscriptions [%] 105% 103% 105% 108% 109% 112% 115% 117% 118% 120%
Prepaid [%] 99% 97% 98% 100% 100% 103% 105% 106% 107% 108%
Postpaid [%] 6% 6% 7% 7% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12%
Mobile Data Users [%] 93% 93% 96% 100% 105% 108% 111% 113% 114% 116%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATORS
Total Mobile Subscriptions - Network Operators [000] 29,625 29,472 30,417 31,732 32,659 34,144 35,354 36,527 37,631 38,581
Movistar [000] 10,531 9,514 9,439 10,549 10,829 11,427 11,964 12,519 13,077 13,599
Movilnet [000] 13,431 14,734 15,882 15,956 16,271 16,855 17,274 17,653 17,972 18,192
Digitel [000] 5,663 5,224 5,096 5,227 5,560 5,862 6,115 6,355 6,581 6,790
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Mobile Subscriptions - MVNOs [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TYPE OF PACKAGE
Prepaid [000] 27,987 27,682 28,465 29,603 30,078 31,263 32,281 33,202 34,101 34,850
Postpaid [000] 1,638 1,790 1,952 2,129 2,582 2,881 3,073 3,324 3,530 3,731
MOBILE CHURN
Annual Churn Rate [%] 32.4% 31.9% 32.6% 29.0% 28.6% 28.1% 27.6% 27.1% 26.6% 26.1%
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY TECHNOLOGY
Total Mobile Subscriptions [000] 29,625 29,472 30,417 31,732 32,659 34,144 35,354 36,527 37,631 38,581
Analog [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Digital Trunking/iDEN [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM [000] 3,766 2,194 764 105 0 0 0 0 0 0
TDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA One [000] 2,149 1,915 1,588 1,117 814 506 345 177 0 0
CDMA One (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HSCSD [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-SCDMA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TD-HSPA [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PAS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PHS [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PDC [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
GSM/GPRS [000] 2,900 3,184 3,337 3,125 2,889 2,664 2,353 2,326 2,321 2,302
GSM/EDGE [000] 8,219 7,862 7,557 7,188 6,032 5,188 4,193 3,326 2,426 1,159
CDMA 1X [000] 8,020 8,183 7,939 8,201 8,656 8,812 8,536 7,864 6,830 5,064
CDMA 1X (WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X) [000] 2,981 2,373 1,961 1,166 612 84 0 0 0 0
CDMA2000 (EV/3X-WLL) [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
UMTS [000] 1,070 2,401 4,555 6,111 7,167 8,634 10,232 11,741 13,035 14,844
HSPA [000] 520 1,360 2,715 4,719 6,466 8,034 9,289 10,313 11,636 13,017
Mobile WiMAX [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LTE [000] 0 0 0 0 22 223 405 781 1,384 2,194
Others [000] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS BY SEGMENT
Consumer Subscriptions [000] 28,664 28,460 29,310 30,548 31,407 32,794 33,910 34,984 35,987 36,835
Business Subscriptions [000] 961 1,012 1,107 1,184 1,252 1,350 1,444 1,542 1,644 1,745
MOBILE DATA USERS BY APPLICATION
Messaging
SMS [000] 26,155 26,486 27,953 29,376 31,353 32,881 34,117 35,299 36,376 37,423
MMS [000] 2,860 3,118 3,386 3,298 3,224 3,034 2,827 2,512 2,070 1,592
Build custom reports from your Forecast Data with DataTracker. For more information, click here or call +1.617.747.4134 or + 44.207.560.4471.
© 2013 Client Confidential
Email [000] 1,486 1,577 1,681 1,843 2,030 2,059 2,025 1,883 1,649 1,352
Others [000] 4,484 4,668 4,883 5,206 5,465 5,771 6,035 6,173 6,296 6,390
Applications
Ringtones [000] 2,966 3,088 3,230 3,477 3,593 3,380 3,150 2,766 2,280 1,753
Graphics/Images [000] 406 422 442 456 469 442 412 361 279 186
Games [000] 659 686 718 773 851 801 746 655 506 337
Browsing/WAP [000] 1,444 2,310 4,620 6,930 9,629 12,080 15,010 18,144 21,497 24,684
Music [000] 647 976 1,321 1,686 1,862 1,888 1,759 1,599 1,401 1,178
Video [000] 140 277 553 1,020 1,680 2,108 2,401 2,728 3,092 3,487
Data cards/Modems [000] 811 1,210 1,348 1,544 1,669 1,919 2,146 2,328 2,446 2,533
MOBILE USAGE
Average Monthly Voice MOU [units/month] 118 119 121 125 128 132 134 136 138 140
Prepaid [units/month] 100 100 101 103 104 105 106 107 108 108
Postpaid [units/month] 420 427 427 430 431 433 436 438 440 442
Average Monthly SMS [units/month] 187 221 253 273 296 313 321 327 321 315
Average Monthly MMS [units/month] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
MOBILE ARPS
Mobile ARPS by Operator [US$/month] $23.47 $19.55 $18.65 $21.41 $19.10 $23.29 $29.33 $27.81 $25.60 $24.14
Movistar [US$/month] $31.15 $22.84 $29.30 $32.74 $30.53 $38.64 $48.52 $45.85 $42.35 $39.94
Movilnet [US$/month] $19.52 $17.98 $13.28 $15.25 $12.13 $13.81 $16.96 $15.52 $13.54 $12.21
Digitel [US$/month] $18.01 $17.55 $15.02 $18.50 $17.27 $20.90 $27.10 $26.81 $25.66 $24.90
Others [US$/month] $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Mobile ARPS by Subscription Type
Prepaid ARPS [US$/month] $22.51 $18.21 $17.10 $19.15 $16.38 $19.34 $23.93 $22.21 $19.43 $17.60
Postpaid ARPS [US$/month] $39.43 $41.28 $41.87 $53.69 $48.06 $60.94 $72.58 $67.95 $67.03 $64.56
Mobile ARPS by Service Line
Voice ARPS [US$/month] $17.05 $13.73 $12.95 $14.37 $12.46 $14.68 $17.75 $16.22 $14.25 $12.85
Data ARPS [US$/month] $6.42 $5.83 $5.70 $7.04 $6.64 $8.62 $11.58 $11.59 $11.34 $11.30
Messaging [US$/month] $5.23 $4.54 $4.21 $4.84 $4.19 $5.11 $6.66 $6.34 $5.82 $5.36
SMS [US$/month] $4.75 $4.11 $3.72 $4.23 $3.67 $4.53 $6.06 $5.80 $5.41 $5.04
MMS [US$/month] $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02
Email [US$/month] $0.33 $0.30 $0.35 $0.43 $0.37 $0.41 $0.43 $0.38 $0.28 $0.21
Others [US$/month] $0.09 $0.08 $0.09 $0.12 $0.09 $0.11 $0.12 $0.11 $0.09 $0.08
Applications [US$/month] $1.20 $1.29 $1.49 $2.20 $2.46 $3.51 $4.91 $5.25 $5.53 $5.94
Ringtones [US$/month] $0.16 $0.15 $0.13 $0.15 $0.14 $0.15 $0.16 $0.13 $0.09 $0.07
Graphics/Images [US$/month] $0.15 $0.14 $0.14 $0.18 $0.17 $0.17 $0.18 $0.15 $0.10 $0.06
Games [US$/month] $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.06 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.05 $0.03 $0.02
Browsing/WAP [US$/month] $0.45 $0.52 $0.63 $0.99 $1.30 $2.13 $3.19 $3.59 $3.95 $4.39
Music [US$/month] $0.04 $0.04 $0.04 $0.06 $0.05 $0.06 $0.06 $0.05 $0.04 $0.03
Video [US$/month] $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.06 $0.07 $0.08 $0.07 $0.07
Data cards/Modems [US$/month] $0.32 $0.37 $0.48 $0.74 $0.71 $0.88 $1.20 $1.21 $1.24 $1.30
Mobile ARPS by Technology Generation
3G [US$/month] $28.16 $29.33 $22.38 $29.98 $25.79 $30.75 $38.42 $35.59 $31.48 $28.49
Non-3G [US$/month] $22.74 $17.39 $17.36 $16.97 $14.50 $16.74 $19.04 $16.37 $14.21 $12.01
MOBILE REVENUES
Total Mobile Revenues [US$m] $8,145 $6,933 $6,702 $7,985 $7,381 $9,337 $12,230 $11,993 $11,389 $11,040
Voice Revenue [US$m] $5,916 $4,867 $4,654 $5,359 $4,814 $5,883 $7,403 $6,994 $6,341 $5,874
Data Revenue [US$m] $2,229 $2,066 $2,048 $2,626 $2,567 $3,453 $4,827 $4,999 $5,047 $5,165
Messaging Revenue [US$m] $1,814 $1,609 $1,513 $1,805 $1,617 $2,047 $2,779 $2,733 $2,588 $2,451
SMS [US$m] $1,650 $1,457 $1,338 $1,578 $1,417 $1,817 $2,526 $2,503 $2,406 $2,307
MMS [US$m] $19 $17 $18 $24 $22 $24 $24 $18 $14 $10
Email [US$m] $115 $106 $125 $161 $141 $164 $180 $164 $126 $96
Others [US$m] $31 $29 $32 $43 $36 $42 $49 $48 $42 $38
Applications Revenue [US$m] $415 $457 $535 $821 $949 $1,407 $2,049 $2,266 $2,460 $2,714
Ringtones [US$m] $56 $52 $47 $58 $56 $62 $65 $57 $42 $30
Graphics/Images [US$m] $52 $49 $51 $68 $64 $69 $73 $64 $45 $30
Games [US$m] $18 $17 $17 $21 $19 $21 $23 $20 $14 $9
Browsing/WAP [US$m] $156 $186 $225 $368 $501 $853 $1,331 $1,548 $1,758 $2,007
Music [US$m] $15 $14 $15 $21 $20 $24 $26 $24 $18 $14
Video [US$m] $7 $6 $8 $11 $15 $24 $31 $33 $31 $31
Data cards/Modems [US$m] $110 $133 $171 $274 $274 $352 $499 $522 $551 $592