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Projecting Future Nut Consumption:Investment in a Disciplined Approach
INC 2012 Congress, Singapore
May 18, 2012
Richard Waycott
How best to move beyond our baseline?
• The California Almond crop is growing!� Fastest growing tree nut crop….by far� Largest tree nut crop in the world
• Almond influence is growing!� An important California crop� An important export crop� An important food product to manufacturers and consumers� An important dietary solution for manufacturers, health
professionals and consumers� Leader in tree nut food safety
This is all good but………
We need to keep asking ourselves…
• Is the industry’s and the market growth strategy correctly positioned?
• We’ve done well but can’t we do better?
• What are the specific product categories in priority markets in which we should focus?
• Are we employing the right market development resources in the right proportions?
• How best to deploy resources in the future?
Foundation for answering these questions has to be based on comprehensive analysis
Narrowing Scope to Drive Industry Success
maximize Return on Investment
with…Limited Resources
leveraging… Socio
Economic Trends
and…Health and Lifestyle
Awareness
balancing…Short Term
Opportunities
with…Long Term
Sustained Growth
Strategic Planning Comes First
Project Resources Analytical Objectives
Identify current consumption, forecast growth for key regional markets and market categories
Identify specific growth opportunities within regional
markets and market categories
Deliver recommendations on strategic direction and
investment opportunities
• Money
• Dedicated Time
• Objective Expertise
Options under consideration
Phase 1:Region Selection
Phase 2:Current Market Sizing
Phase 3:Future Market Sizing
Phase 4:Opportunity Prioritization
Establish filtering criteria to evaluate and select the most impactful and high potential markets for model inclusion
Develop baseline of almond consumption for key selected markets through production, category and consumption data inputs
Forecast future consumption patterns and opportunities by analyzing global category trends, product innovation, and consumer preferences
Identify the most attractive opportunities for ABC to focus on and invest in based on various execution oriented considerations
PhaseObjectives
KeyActivities
Four phases to identify and evaluate growth opportunities
Agreement on the appropriate “sizing filters” mitigates subjectivity
First Determine the Population
Overlay “Addressable” Filter
Insights Filter Output
Projected Population 2021
Region Total Addressable %
1 United States 339,685,242 334,734,620 99%
2 China 1,398,653,940 1,164,966,725 83%
3 Japan 124,452,649 121,584,759 98%
4 Brazil 211,707,407 184,535,433 87%
5 India 1,401,888,600 774,393,506 55%
6 Russia 140,688,183 121,319,469 86%
7 Mexico 127,009,575 113,926,224 90%
8 Indonesia 264,540,464 188,988,281 71%
9 Germany 80,877,368 78,688,211 97%
10 France 66,149,953 64,772,934 98%
11 U.K. 66,167,985 63,371,307 96%
12 Canada 37,457,985 36,629,985 98%
13 South Korea 49,916,247 49,258,789 99%
14 Middle East 53,955,396 48,892,998 90%
1. Population Projections2. Urbanization Projections
1. GDP per Capita2. Disposable Income3. Food Spend per capita4. Grocer Retail Sales 5. Life Expectancy6. Retail outlets per Million7. Retail Network Rating8. Addressable Market9. Political environment
Phase 1 and 2: Region Selection;Ranking Market Size and Attractiveness
Options under consideration
Phase 1:Region Selection
Phase 2:Current Market Sizing
Phase 3:Future Market Sizing
Phase 4:Opportunity Prioritization
Establish filtering criteria to evaluate and select the most impactful and high potential markets for model inclusion
Develop baseline of almond consumption for key selected markets through production, category and consumption data inputs
Forecast future consumption patterns and opportunities by analyzing global category trends, product innovation, and consumer preferences
Identify the most attractive opportunities for ABC to focus on and invest in based on various execution oriented considerations
PhaseObjectives
KeyActivities
Four phases to identify and evaluate growth opportunities
Narrow focus to the specific
Food Category Examples
1. Snacking
2. Confectionery
3. Cereal
4. Ice Cream
5. Bakery
6. Food Service
7. Other
Phase 3: Define and understand categories within each market opportunity
Opportunities exist where categories
and markets “intersect”
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2 3 4
Growth Opportunities and “attractiveness”: risk-reward trade off
Low High
Low
Hig
hV
olum
e of
Gro
wth
Market Attractiveness
No Opportunities Offer Both High Growth and High
Attractiveness (i.e., No Risk)
Established Opportunities
Up-and-Coming Opportunities
High Growth with Risk
Options under consideration
Phase 1:Region Selection
Phase 2:Current Market Sizing
Phase 3:Future Market Sizing
Phase 4:Opportunity Prioritization
Establish filtering criteria to evaluate and select the most impactful and high potential markets for model inclusion
Develop baseline of almond consumption for key selected markets through production, category and consumption data inputs
Forecast future consumption patterns and opportunities by analyzing global category trends, product innovation, and consumer preferences
Identify the most attractive opportunities to focus on and invest in based on various execution oriented considerations
PhaseObjectives
KeyActivities
Four phases to identify and evaluate growth opportunities
Make choices – can’t do it all (at least not simultaneously)
Phase 4: Where do we focus??Prioritization Factor Weightings and Definitions
Total score can then
be used to compare
and assess options
Total Score: 4.0 3.7
Strategies based on Market Type
ExploratoryMarket Access Focus
EmergingTrade Stewardship and Marketing Focus
EstablishedTrade Management and Marketing Focus
� First insights on trade, market access, and consumer channels
� Foundation for further development work
� Marketing activities are not yet recommended
- Primary focus of market efforts - Supporting focus - Ongoing and maintenance efforts
� Expands stakeholder group engagement
� Education and technical information
� Initial marketing activities; market and consumer research
� Deeper customer and consumer insights
� Continued trade development support
� Shifts focus to demand generation
- Readiness for market efforts not established
Market Type Protocols Focus of Protocol
Be in the Driver’s Seat and Maximize ROI
Maximized Return on Investment
Optimal use ofLimited Resources
Socio Economic Trends understood and
leveraged
Broad-based Health and Lifestyle Awareness
Balanced Short & LongTerm Sustained
Growth
Right Sized Portfolio of Established, Emerging and
Exploratory Markets
Invest in a Disciplined Approach!!!