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Program Planning for Maximum Impact
Spring Training Workshop Lena Etuk, Social DemographerApril 9, 2013
Varying purposes• Create new programming• Adjust current programming• End old programming
Different directions• Inputs-focused• Outcomes-focused
The Nature of Program Planning
Program Planning Cycle
1. Analyze the situation:
Needs Assessment
2. Set goal to address need
3. Design program to meet goal
4. Take stock of & gather resources
5. Plan program details
6. Implement
7. Evaluate
Maxim
um Im
pact
Zone
Needs Assessment
Phase IPre-
AssessmentIdentify needs
Phase IIAssessment
(optional)
Further identify needs
Phase IIIPost-
Assessment
PrioritizeMake decisions
Allocate resourcesImplement
Focus Today: PHASE I of NA
1. Get organized2. Form a Needs Assessment Committee (NAC)3. Find out what is already known or available from existing
data sources about:• What is• What should be• Causes of gap• Consequences of gap• Potential solutions for gap
4. Synthesize the data and decide to move to Phase II or Phase III
Phase I Needs Assessment Case Study
1. Issue of concern: rising Latino population, and not sure if RCE is/I am meeting their needs generally or needs for decision-making data• What can I do to help meet needs of Latino population?• What can I do to better inform decision makers about Latino population?
2. Review available statistics about the current Latino situation and the ideal situation
3. Make sense of the statistics4. Identify causes and consequences of gaps5. Determine if more data are needed
An approach to gathering existing statistics for needs assessment
Tell the story
Identify gaps
5. Make sense of trends
Integration
Immigrant policies
Political representation
Economics
Education
4. Explore related trends
Talk to experts
Latino advocacy groups
Review literature
3. Identify related trends
Demographic
Social
Economic
2. Explore sub-trends
Latinos over time and space
1. Explore overall trends
When you explore statistics look out for…
• Deviations from a benchmark• State• Nation• Similar communities• Target level• Larger geography or group of people• Particular time point• Representation in population
• Information about methods• Discrepancies across sources
Keep a set of questions in mind
Forefront of mind• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?• What should be?• Where are the assets among this population?• What’s surprising?• How do surprising findings challenge assumptions?• What further questions are we asking ourselves?Back of the mind• Causes of gap?• Consequences of gap?• Potential solutions for gap?
1. EXPLORE OVERALL TRENDSWith Rural Communities Explorer
% of Population Latino
% Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS)
0.0% - 5.6%
5.7% - 11.6%11.7% - 21.2%
21.2% - 36.1%36.2% - 71.1%
% Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS) - WV metro zoom-in
0.0% - 5.6%
5.7% - 11.6%11.7% - 21.2%
21.2% - 36.1%36.2% - 71.1%
• Malheur (31%); ~10,000
• Morrow (31%); ~3,000
• Hood River (29%); ~6,000
• Marion (24%); ~74,000
Click icon to add picture
Counties with highest Latino populations (2007-11 ACS)
2. EXPLORE SUB-TRENDS
Sub-trends
• Compare Latinos to state at large with data from US Census Bureau• Demographic variables• Social variables• Economic variables
Demographic Variables
• Younger median age• More families with kids• Larger household and family sizes• Higher fertility rate• Less residential stability• Mostly engage in regionalized migration, but also experience
farther within-state migration
Malheur continues to be a Destination County
Hood River County exodus, but stay close
Social Variables
• Higher percentage of Latinos are enrolled in K-8, and lower percentage is enrolled in college or graduate school• Latinos = 19% of K-8; Latinos = 8% of higher ed enrollees
• Lower educational attainment among adults
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 85
-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000
2010 Oregon Latino Popu-lation Pyramid
FemalesMales
Socio-economic Variables
• Higher labor force participation• Higher employment rate • Top occupations
1. Service2. Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
• Top industries1. Arts, entertainment, and recreation2. Accommodation and food service3. Manufacturing
Socio-economic Variables
• More likely to earn income from wages and salaries• Lower full-time year-round median earnings• greater disparity among men, than women
• Higher poverty rate• Higher SNAP recipient rate (23%), but equitably represented
among recipients (12%)
3. IDENTIFY RELATED TRENDS
Identify Related Trends/Missing Information
• Consult with experts (NAC)• Refer to practitioner reports• CAUSA• PEW Hispanic Center
• Review literature• Integration/Assimilation, Education, Political representation, Economics• Griffin, JD, & Newman, B. 2007. The Unequal Representation of Latinos and
Whites. The Journal of Politics, 69(4):1032-1046.• Lee, Y. & Aytac, IA. 1998. Intergenerational Financial Support among Whites,
African Americans, and Latinos. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(2):426-441• Kalogrides, D. 2009. Generational Status and Academic Achievement among
Latino High School Students: Evaluating the Segmented Assimilation Theory. Sociological Perspectives 52(2): 159-183
Important Related Trends
• Immigrant policies• Integration/Assimilation• Education• Economics• Political representation
4. EXPLORE RELATED TRENDS
• Integration/Assimilation
• Immigrant policies
• Political representation
• Economics
• Education
• Foreign-born vs. US-born
• Policy impacts
• Representation of Latinos in public office• Circulation of $s
• School enrollment
Related Trends
Foreign-born vs. US-born
• Foreign-born Latinos = 38% of OR Latinos (and declining)• Foreign-born:• 20 years older (median age) than US-born Latinos• Less educated• Earn $10,000 less• Lower unemployment• More likely to work construction and ag. industries, and service
occupations
Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
Foreign-born vs. US-born
• In 2010, US-born Latinos come close to non-Latino Whites in the % with some college• In 2007, US-born Latinos came close to non-Latino Whites in
median household income, but from 2007 to 2010 that grew to a $12,000 difference• While median income of whites declined by $2,000 from 2007 to 2010,
the median income of US-born Latinos declined by $10,000
Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2007 & 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
Policy impacts
• SB 1080 (required proof of legal US residence to obtain OR driver’s license)• Social burdens placed on families of undocumented• Fear of deportation• Labor shortages will be concentrated in certain industries (crop
production, ag support, textile mills, and food production)(Assessment of the socio-economic impacts of SB 1080 on Immigrant groups. 2011. ODOT. SR 500-270.)
• HB 2787 - Tuition Equity Bill (in-state tuition for children of undocumented)• Proposed SB 833 (4-yr driver’s license w/o proof of legal
residence)
Latinos in public office
% of County Officials Latino
~2% of elected offices held by Latinos (2012)
Source: Northwest News Network
Economics
• $22 billion transferred from US to Latin American countries in 2012 as private remittances (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
• $13.5 billion transferred from US to Mexico in 2012
• Economic impact on Oregon• $7 billion purchasing power in 2009 (Selig Center, 2009)
• Rate of growth among Latino entrepreneurs 4x higher than total business growth (1997 & 2007 US Census Survey of Business Owners)
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
Percentage of Oregon K-12 Students Latino
Source: OR Dept. of Education, Oct. 1 membership file
School year
% o
f all
en
roll
ed
stu
den
ts
• 8% of Oregonians enrolled in higher-ed were Latino (ACS, 06-10)• 18% of Oregonians enrolled in K-12 were Latino (ACS, 06-10)
Education
5. MAKE SENSE OF THE DATA
Interpreting the data
• Interpretation requires:• Knowing the unit of analysis• Understanding how accurate the data are• Understanding what the stats you’ve created mean and imply (e.g.,
population % change ’90-’00: represents in-migration or changes to the birth and death rates?)
• Understanding the strengths and limitations of the stats
Telling the story
Answer a series of questions with the data• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?• What’s surprising?• Where are the gaps? • Where are the assets among this population?
• What further questions are we asking ourselves?
Discussion
My take on the statistical story about Latinos in Oregon…
• Growing population with unique attributes (age, labor, language)• Over-represented in K-12 and under-represented in higher-ed• Contribute greatly to our economy and society• Disadvantaged and vulnerable group, that may improve its
advantage in future generations• Reliant on allies and coalitions to make policy decisions that
benefit them
Gap Areas
1. Gap between Latino and non-Latino socioeconomic outcomes:• Educational attainment• Income• Poverty
2. Under-representation of Latinos in higher-education3. Under-representation of Latinos in politics, despite influential
policies being established affecting this population
Consequences
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Demand for social services• Health and other outcomes
2. Inequitable educational representation• Low-skill and low-wage work concentration
3. Inequitable political representation• Recent policy outcomes appear favorable
Do we need more information about consequences?Which gap area deserves more attention?
Causes
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Immigration history• Concentration in low-wage jobs
2. Inequitable educational representation• Age structure• Immigration legacy
3. Inequitable political representation• Not enough information from stats
Do we have enough information about causes?
Preliminary solutions to high priority needs (gaps)
1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Improve wages of jobs held by Latinos• Improve the job prospects of Latinos• Others?
2. Inequitable representation in education• Wait for population to age
Solutions that I can handle…
1. Socioeconomic outcomes• Increase the amount of information I share about outcomes among
Latinos• Share information w/advocacy groups that are working on improving
the wages of jobs held by Latinos and the job prospects for Latinos
Our secondary statistical analysis prompts more questions
About Level 2’s needs• How are data being used for advocacy or for educating non-Latinos?• How can data be used to help improve the quality of life for Latinos?• How is it being used?• How should it be used?
Causes & Consequences
…Phase II is necessary…
Program Planning Cycle
1. Analyze the situation:
Needs Assessment
2. Set goal to address need
3. Design program to meet goal
4. Take stock of & gather resources
5. Plan program details
6. Implement
7. Evaluate
Maxim
um Im
pact
Zone
QUESTIONS?
50
Training Evaluation
For live streaming viewers:Either type this link into your URL, or email me so I can send you the link after this training
http://survey.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_eWgfoWdsyZFiJHn
Lena Etuk – [email protected]