Colorado Population Forecasts

May 2010Elizabeth Garner · State DemographerColorado Department of Local Affairs

State Demography Office• State Agency

– Responsible for population data needed by state agencies.

• Population Estimates – state, county, municipality, title 32 special districts.– County – race/ethnicity, age, gender

• Population forecasts – state, county– Single year to 2040 by age and gender

• Job forecasts by county by industry by single year to 2040.– Labor force by age, race/ethnicity, county

• Public Data Technical Assistance

Population Forecasts

• Population change tied to understandings of both economic and demographic change.

– Demographic cohort-survival model• Fertility, mortality, social migration• = supply of labor provided by existing populations.

– Economic forecast• National, Regional, State, Local conditions• = demand for labor.

– Differences in labor supply vs. labor demand resolved by the net migration of populations and associated household members

Source: State Demography Office

Colorado Population Change

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

Net MigrationNatural increase

People follow jobs

Population ForecastsColorado Population Forecast By Region

State Demography Office, 11/2009

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

EASTERN PLAINS SAN LUIS VALLEY

CENTRAL MTNS.

WESTERN SLOPE FRONT RANGE

7.7 million

5.1 million

Source: State Demography Office

Population ForecastsFront Range Population Forecast

State Demography Office, 11/2009

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Pueblo

Weld

LarimerEl Paso

Denver-Bldr Region

4.2 million

6.1 million

Long Term Demographic Issue: Aging of Baby Boomers

• The Baby Boom: 1946 – 1964• First reach 65 in 2010• By 2030 Colorado’s 65+ population will be

three times its size in 2000, growing from 400,000 to 1.2 million.

• Currently 4th lowest share of people over 65 and 6th largest share of baby boomers.

• 45% of the labor force.• 2020-2025 largest growth in leavers from the

labor force.

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000110,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age

Num

ber o

f Per

sons

1,200,000

419,000

Colorado Population by Age, 2000 and 2030

Employment and Migration

!

Commuting

• American Community Survey– Travel time to work by:– Means of transportation, age, sex, race, leave time,

industry, occupation, earnings, language spoken at home, poverty, tenure

• Local Employment Dynamics (Department of Labor and Census Bureau collaboration)– Wage and salary employment by place of residence

and place of job.– From one place to another

CommutingAggregate Travel Time to Work in Minutes

Denver Metro plus Larimer and WeldAmerican Community Survey 2006-08

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

Less than 10minutes

10 to 14minutes

15 to 19minutes

20 to 24minutes

25 to 29minutes

30 to 34minutes

35 to 44minutes

45 to 59minutes

60 or moreminutes

Thank you!

http://dola.colorado.gov/demog