Schools for Equity in EducationSusan Brower, MN State DemographerApril 2015

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Big demographic trends that will impact school

districts

• Growth patterns within MN have changed

• Aging• Increasing diversity—

ethnicity, language, religion, and other aspects

Exurban growthin the 2000s

Source: PolicyMap, U.S. Census Bureau data

Source: CURA Reporter, Winter/Spring 2014

Population loss along western edge of state, down into Southwestern prairies has been long-standing

U.S. Census Bureau data

Population growth rates have converged over the last decade

Source: U.S. Census BureauSource: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Note: Suburban=Anoka, Dakota, Washington, Exurban=Carver, Chisago, Isanti, Scott, Sherburne, Wright

How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

Budget pressures will changeMore 65+ than school-age by 2020

U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

Increasingly our demographics will change demand for services

General Fund ExpendituresFY 2012-2013

Within Health & Human Services

• Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion)

• Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion)

• MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care

Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

Black, Latino and Asian populations growing rapidly

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

+ Our foreign-born population is becoming increasingly diverse

Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data

Large gaps in educational achievement and attainment exist across racial groups

Growing child poverty, esp. for children of color

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

Minnesota by race, 2012

Source: 2012 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.

School-age population

Largest Population Growth Among Asian, Black and Hispanic Groups

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

Minnesota’s projected net migration and natural change, 2012-2065

Source: State Demographic Center projections, U.S. Census Bureau data used as base population for projections

mn.gov/demographyTwitter: @MN_StateData