PPR 2008_2 engelska

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MPR 2008:2

03.06.2008

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1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

90%75%50%Repo rate

Source: The Riksbank

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3/111

2 . CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

-

0

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 0-

0

2

3

4

5

6

907550CPI

Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank

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4/111

3 . GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted

-

0

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 07 08 09 0-

0

2

3

4

5

6907550GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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5/111

4 . Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

00

20

40

00 0 02 03 0 4 05 06 07 08 09 00

20

40

60

80

00

20

40Oil price, utc me

Future , a era e up t and includin 6-0 -2008(M P 2008: )Future , a era e up t and includin -0 4-2008(MPU pril 2008)

Future , up t and includin 27-06-2008 (MP2008:2)

S urce : Interc ntinental Exchan e and the ik bank

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5 . No inal and real oil priceUSD per barrel (Brent)

0

20

40

60

8000

20

40

70 7 5 80 8 5 90 9 5 00 0 50

20

40

60

8000

20

40Oil price

eal oil price

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the iksbanken

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6 . Co odity pricesUSD, annual percentage change

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

00

00 02 04 0 6 0840

20

0

20

40

60

80

00ood

Other agricultural productsMetals

otaly

Source: he Econo ist.

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7 . CPI and GDP in OECDAnnual percentage change

Sources: OECD and the Riksbank

0 0

0 5

0

5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

00 0 02 03 04 05 06 0 7 08 09 00 0

0 5

0

5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5GDP OECD

CPI OECD

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8 . Unit labour costs for the econo y as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

8

9

9 9 98 00 0 0 0 08 10-1

01

8

9Unit labour costs

roducti ityLabour costs per hour


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9 . Actual and trend productivity growth inthe econo y as a whole

Annual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data

-2

-

0

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 0 9 10 11-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5MP 2008:2

M P 2008: 1HP-trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

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1 . ood, energy and ortgage costs in the CPIAnnual percentage change

15

15

5

1

152

25

3

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 815

15

5

1

152

25

3

35M ortgage costs 4.5%Energi 8.9%

ood 16.8%

Source: Statistics SwedenNote . Th e weig ht of the r espective components is given in bra ckets .

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11. CPI, outco e and forecasts on differentoccasions

Annual percentage change

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 111

0

1

2

3

4

5M P 2008 2M P April 2008M P 2008 1

Sources Statistics Sweden and the iksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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12 . ood prices at different stagesAnnual percentage change

-20

-10

0

10

20

0

0

0

0

00 0 1 02 0 0 0 0 0 0-20

-10

0

10

20

0

0

0

0The cono ist co odit price inde for food

ood in the TPIFood in the PI

Sources: The cono ist and Statistics Sweden.

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13 . CPI and CPI FAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

3

00 0 1 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 09 10 11-1

0

1

3

CPICPI F

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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14 . abour force and nu ber of e ployedThousands, seasonally adjusted data

3800

4000

4200

44 00

4600

4800

5000

80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 0 4 07 103800

4000

4200

44 00

4600

4800

5000abour force E def n t onabour force O def n t on

E ployed E def n t onE ployed O def n t on

Sources: Stat st cs Sweden and the R ksbank

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15 . Percentage of une ployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14ne ploy ent O def n t on

ne ploy ent E def n t on

Sources: Stat st cs Sweden and the R ksbank

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16 . GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated

as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

00 01 02 03 04 05 0 6 07 08 09 10 111

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7GDP according to 2007 3

orecast, MP 2008 1GDP according to 2007 4

orecast pril 2008GDP according to 2008 1

orecast, MP 2008 2


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17 . Growth in the World and SwedenAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

-3

-2-1

0

1

23

4

5

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-3

-2-1

0

1

23

4

5

6

Swedenhe World

Sources: I F, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.Note . Br oken lines a nd st r iped bar s r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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18 . GDP for the United States and the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate,

seasonally adjusted data

-2

-10

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 0 8 09 10 11-2

-10

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

US

Euro area

Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Econo ic nalysis and the Riksbank

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19. ExportsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

1

1

1

1 9 1 111

1

1

1


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2 . TCW exchange rateIndex, 1 8.11. 92 = 1


12

122

124

126

128

13

13 2

134

136

4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1112

122

124

126

128

13

13 2

134

136TCW indexTCW rognos R 2 8 :2TCW rognos R 2 8 :1

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21. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

an/ 04 / 04 an/ 05 / 05 an/ 06 / 06 an/ 07 / 07 an/ 08 / 080

1

2

3

4

5

6Varia e rt a e rateE ected re rate

i erence etween aria e rt a e rate and e ected re rate

S rces: Ec win and the Riks ank

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22 . Households' disposable inco es,consu ption and saving ratio

Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposableinco e

-1

0

1

2

9 9 9 00 02 0 0 0 10-2

0

2

10

12

1Consu ption left scale

isposal inco e left scaleaving ratio right scale

ources: tatistics weden and the Riksbank

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23 . Invest entsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate

15

10

5

0

5

10

15

00 0 1 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1 5

-1 0

-5

0

5

10

15

M P 2008 1

M P 2008 2


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24 . Public sector consu ption expenditureAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

94 96 98 00 0 2 04 06 08 1022

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30Annual percentage change (left scale)

Percentage of GDP (right scale)


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25 . General govern ent net lendingProportion of GDP, per cent

-1 0

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

94 96 98 00 0 2 04 06 08 10-1 0

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

inancial alance

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riks ankNote . S tr iped bar s r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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26 . Repo rate forecasts on different occasionsPer cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 0 6 07 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6

M PR 2008 2

M P pri 2008

Source The RiksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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Table 1. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change, () = atest PU


2007 2008 2009 2010

CPI 2.2 3.9 (3.5) 3.5 (2.8) 2.3 (2.3)

CPIX 1.2 3.0 (2.6) 2.8 (2.4) 2.0 (2.0)

CPIX exc l. ene r gy 1.5 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1)

CPI w ith fixed inte r est ra te 1.5 3.1 (2.8) 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.2)

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Table 2. Inflation. 1 2- onth rateAnnual percentage change. () = atest PU


S ept . 07 S ept . 08 S ept . 09 S ept .-10 S ept . 11

CPI 2.2 4.6 (3.8) 3.0 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) 2.1

CPIX 1.0 3.8 (3.2) 2.4 (2.3) 2.0 (1.9) 1.9

CPIX exc l. ene r gy 1.4 2.4 (2.4) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1) 2.0

CPI w ith fixed inte r est ra te 1.3 3.9 (3.3) 2.7 (2.5) 2.2 (2.1) 2.1

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Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change. unless otherwise specified. ( ) = atest

PU

ources: I F, Intercontinental Exchange, National ediation Office and the Riksbank

*P e r cent of lab ou r for ce

2007 2008 2009 2010

GDP. w orld 4.9 (4.9) 4.0 (3.8) 3.9 (4.0) 4.4 (4.5)Cr ude oil pr ice Br ent . USD/barr e l. a nnu ala ve ra ge

73 (73) 123 (103) 137 (102) 136 (100)

Excha nge ra te . TCW index . a nnu al a ve ra ge 125.2 122.8 (123.3) 121.9 (122.4) 121.9 (122.5)Repo ra te . a nnu al a ve ra ge 3.5 4.4 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3)

Gene ral gove r nment net lending . pe r cent a ge of GDP

3.4 (3.4) 3.1 (2.9) 1.3 (1.4) 0.9 (0.9)

GDP 2.7 (2.6) 2.1 (2.6) 1.2 (1.8) 2.7 (2.8)

GDP. calend ar-a djusted 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.4) 1.4 (1.9) 2.4 (2.5)

No . of emp loyed . 15-74 2.5 1.4 (1.1) -0.4 (-0.1) -0.1 (0.0)

Unemp loyment . 15-74 (EU definition )6.1 5.9 (6.0) 6.5 (6.2) 6.5 (6.3)

Hou rly wa ge in economy a s a wh ole 3.3 (3.4) 4.4 (4.5) 3.7 (3.8) 3.8 (3.8)

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Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = atest PU


Q 2

2 8

Q 3

2 8

Q 4

2 8

Q 3

2 9

Q 3

2 1

Q3

2 11Repo ra te 4.25 4.5 (4.3) 4.8 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) 4.4

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27 . Repo rate assu ptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

04 05 06 0 7 08 09 10 110

1

2

3

4

5

6M ain scenario

o er interest rates

Hig er interest rates

Source: T e RiksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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28 . CPIAnnual percentage change

0.0

0.51.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

04 05 06 07 0 8 09 10 110.0

0.51.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0er ntere t rate

Higher intere t rate

M ain cenar io

S o urce: The R ik bankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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29. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 0 9 10 110

1

2

3

4

5M ain scenar io

o er interest ratesHigher interest rates

Sources: Stat ist ics S eden and the R iksbankBla ck lines s how a ve ra ge GDP gr owth in the pe r iods 1981-2007 a nd 1998-2007; 2, 3 a nd 3.2 pe r cent .

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3 . TCW exchange rateIndex, 1 8 Nove ber 1 99 2 = 1

116

11 8

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11116

11 8

12

122

124

126

128

13

132

M ain cenar io

o er intere t rate

Higher intere t rate

Source. The R ik bankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

04 05 06 07 08 09 10-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

M ain scenario

ower interest rates

Hig er interest rates

Sources: Statistics Sweden and t e Riksbank

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33 . abour arket gapPercentage deviation fro the HP trend

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

98 99 00 0 1 02 0 3 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3M ain cenario

o er intere t rateHigher intere t rate

Source : Stati tic S eden and the Rik bank

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35 . E ploy ent ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data

0

1

3

5

9 99 00 01 0 03 0 05 0 0 0 09 10 110

1

3

5

Ma n scenar o

Lo er nterest rates

er nterest rates

Sources: Stat st cs S eden and t e R ksbank

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36 . Une ploy entPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

3

6

9

10

11

9 99 01 0 0 0 0 0 10 113

6

9

10

11

Lo er nterest rates

gher nterest rates

Ma n scenar o

Sources: Stat st cs S eden and the R ksbank

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37 . Co odity price index excluding energyIndex, USD

0

100

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 000

0

0

0

9 91 93 9 97 99 01 03 0 07 09 11 130

100

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 000

0

0

0

Lo er co odity priceMain cen ario

Source : The Econo i t a nd the Rik b a nk.

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38 . GDP, scenario with lower co odity pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

0.0

0.1.0

1.

.0

.

3.0

3.

.0

.

.0

0 0 0 0 08 09 10 110.0

0.1.0

1.

.0

.

3.0

3.

.0

.

.0Lower co odity pricesMain scenario


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39. Repo rate, scenario with lower co odityprices

Per cent, quaterly average

0

1

3

0 0 0 0 0 0 9 10 110

1

3

Lower co odity prices

Main scenario

Source: The RiksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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4 . CPI, scenario with lower co odity pricesAnnual percentage change

-1

1

4

4 9 1 11-1

1

4Lower co odity prices

Main scenario


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41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growthand higher inflationPer cent, quaterly average

0

1

4

04 0 0 0 0 09 10 110

1

4

Lower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario

Source: The RiksbankNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent the Riks ba nk's for ec a st .

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42 . CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation


0.0

0.1.0

1.

2.0

2.

.0

.

4.0

4.

.0

04 0 0 0 0 09 10 110.0

0.1.0

1.

2.0

2.

.0

.

4.0

4.

.0Lower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario


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43 . GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation

Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

0.0

0.1.0

1.

.0

.

3.0

3.

4.0

4.

.0

04 0 0 0 0 09 10 110.0

0.1.0

1.

.0

.

3.0

3.

4.0

4.


Main scenario


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44 . Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower growth and higher inflation

Percentage deviation fro the HP trend

- .0

-1 .-1 .0

-0 .

0.0

0.

1.0

1.

.0

.

.0

9 99 00 01 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 09 10 11- .0

-1 .-1 .0

-0 .

0.0

0.

1.0

1.

.0

.


Main scenario


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45 . abour arket gap, scenario with lower growthand higher inflation

Percentage deviation fro the HP trend

- .0- .5- .0

-1 .5-1 .0-0 .50.00.51.0

1.5.0.5.0

9 99 00 01 0 0 04 05 0 0 0 09 10 11- .0- .5- .0

-1 .5-1 .0-0 .50.00.51.0

1.5.0.5.0

ower growth, higher inflation

Main scenario


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46 . Difference between interbank rates andgovern ent bond rates (TED spread)

Basis points

0

0

100

1 0

00

0

jan 0 apr 0 jul/ 0 okt / 0 jan / 0 apr / 0 jul/ 00

0

100

1 0

00

0Euro area

weden

o u rces: Re u ters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.

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47 . Basis-spread and Ted-spreadPer cent

.0

.

4.0

4.

.0

.

.0

jan / 07 apr / 07 jul/ 07 ok t/ 07 j an / 0 apr / 0 jul/ 0.0

.

4.0

4.

.0

.

.0Treas ur i lls

Inter an k rate

pected onetar p ol ic

T -spread

Basis-spread

S ou rce: Re u ters c o win

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48 . Spread between interbank rates and expectedonetary policy (Basis spread)

Basis points

0

0

40

0

80

100

1 0

jan / 0 apr / 0 ju l/ 0 okt / 0 jan / 08 apr / 08 ju l/ 080

0

40

0

80

100

1 0

Sweden

uro areaS

So u rces: Re u ters, cowin and the Riksbank.

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49. onetary policy expectations in the UnitedStatesPer cent

1.0

1..0

.

.0

.

4.0

4.

.0

.

.0

jan / 0 jan / 0 jan / 0 jan / 09 jan / 10 j an / 111.0

1..0

.

.0

.

4.0

4.

.0

.

.0ed unds J une 00

ed unds

ed unds pril 00

So u rces: Re u ters, Ecowin and the Riksbank.Note . F orwar d ra tes ha ve been a djusted for r isk pr emiums a nd desc r ibe the expected ove r nig ht ra te .

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5 . onetary policy expectations in the euro areaPer cent

1.

1.5.

.5

.

.5

.

.5

5.

5.5

.

jan / jan / jan / jan / 9 jan / 1 jan / 111.

1.5.

.5

.

.5

.

.5

5.

5.5

.

e i

e i June

e i pril

Sources: euters Ecowin and the iksbank.Note . F orwar d ra tes ha ve been a djusted for r isk pr emiums a nd desc r ibe the expected ove r nig ht ra te .

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51. onetary policy expectations in Swedenaccording to oney arket participants.

Per cent

Sources: Reuters Ecowin, Prospera Research AB and the RiksbankNote . F orwar d ra tes ha ve been a djusted for r isk pr emiums a nd desc r ibe the expected ove r nig ht ra te .

1.0

1. 5

2.0

2. 5

3.0

3. 5

4.0

4. 5

5.0

5.5

an/ 06 an/ 07 an/ 08 an/ 09 an/ 10 an/ 111.0

1. 5

2.0

2. 5

3.0

3. 5

4.0

4. 5

5.0

5.5

Repo rate

orward rate cur e S A/ RA/ Swaps 16 -06 -2008 27 une2008

orward rate cur e S A/ RA/ Swaps 16 -06 -2008 23 April

2008Sur ey, Prospera a erage, 6 une 2008

Sur ey, Prospera a erage, 2 April 2008

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53 . ong-ter interest ratesPer cent

.0

.5

3.0

3.5

.0

.5

5.0

5.5

.0

00 005 00 00 00.0

.5

3.0

3.5

.0

.5

5.0

5.5

.0

Sw e en

uro areaUSA

S o u rce: Re u ters co w inNote . G ove r nment bonds with a pp r oxim a te ly 10 ye ar s left to m a tur ity.

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54 . Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

an/ 07 a r/ 07 u / 07 okt/ 07 an/ 08 a r/ 08 u / 080.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Re o rateInterbank rate

ort a es - Sort a es - a era e

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55 . Exchange rate ove entsSEK per euro and dollar

5

9

10

jan / 0 jul / 0 jan / 0 jul / 0 jan / 0 jul / 05

9

10

SEK / EUR

SEK / US

Source: Reuters Ecowin

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61/111

56 . Stock arket ove entsIndex, 1 anuary 1 999 =1

5

90

11 0

1 0

150

1 0

190

210

230

250

99 00 0 1 02 03 04 0 5 06 07 0850

7090

11 0

130

150

170

190

210

230

250Euro area Euro Stoxx

MX 30 , Sweden

S&P 500 , USA

Source: Reuters Eco w in

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62/111

57 . The oney supplyAnnual percentage change

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200 2007 2008-5

0

5

10

15

20

25M0

M2

M3


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63/111

58 . Households new saving in deposit accounts or shares and unit trusts, quarter

SEK billion

Note. The households new saving is the net a ount households invest in their S ou r ce : S ta tistics Sw eden

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

ar-04 sept-04 ar-0 5 sept-0 5 ar-06 sept-06 ar-07 sept-07 ar-0 8

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40eposit accounts

tier och a tiefonder

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64/111

59. Purchase price coefficient in Sweden as awholeC I ratio

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

03 04 05 0 0 7 081.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Source: Statistics Sweden

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60. House prices and total lending to Swedishhouseholds


Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote . Q uar te rly obse r va tions of house pr ices a nd mont hly obse r va tions of lending to house holds .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2000 2001 200 2 2 00 3 2 00 4 2 005 200 6 200 70

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

House prices

ending to households

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61. E ploy ent and private consu ption in theUnited States


-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

6

00 0 1 02 03 04 0 06 0 7 08-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

6Private consu ption

E ploy ent

Sources: Bureau of abor Statistics and Depart ent of Co erce

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62 . Econo ic indicators for the euro areaIndex, Dece ber 200 5 = 1 00 , and annual percentage change

86

90

94

98

102

106

11 0

11 4

11 8

00 0 1 02 03 04 0 5 06 07 08-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10European Co ission Econo ic Senti ent left scale

ECD Co posite Leading Indicators right scale

S ources: European Co ission and E CD

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63 . Confidence indicators for householdsNet figures

-30

-20

-10

0

10

00 01 0 2 03 0 4 0 06 0 7 08-30

-20

-10

0

10

Euro areaUKGer man

Source: European Co mm ission

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64 . Consu erpricesAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 0 7 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

USAUKEuro area

S ources: Bureau of abor S tatistics, Eurostat, O ECD and S tatistics S weden

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65 . HICP in the euro areaAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 0 2 03 04 05 06 0 7 080

1

2

3

4Ex cl. energ oo alcohol to accoEx cl. energTotal

Source: Eurostat

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71/111

66 . Confidence indicators in the business sector Seasonally adjusted balance

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 0 7 08-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Manufacturin industryRetail trade

Pri ate ser ice industriesConstruction

Source: National Institute of Econo ic Research

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72/111

67 . Gross fixed capital for ationAnnual percentage change

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

94 96 9 8 00 0 2 04 06 0 8-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Housingusiness sector excluding housing

Pu lic authorities

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riks ank

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68 . Foreign trade with goods at fixed pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

-1

-10

-

0

10

1

00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 0 7 08-1

-10

-

0

10

1

ImportsExports

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote . Thr ee -mont h moving a ve ra ges

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69. Retail sales and household consu ptionAnnual percentage change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

94 9 6 98 00 0 2 04 06 0 8-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Households total consu ptionHouseholds consu ption o retail goodsRetail sales

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the National Institute o Econo ic Research

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70. Household expectations of the futureNet figures

-80

- 0

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Confidence indicator

Une mplo ment

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

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71. New and unfilled vacant jobs andredundancy notices

Thousands, seasonally adjusted data

0

10

20

30

40

0

60

70

80

81 84 8 7 90 9 3 96 99 0 2 0 080

3

6

9

12

1

18

21

24New vacancies left scales

Unfilled vacancies left scale

Redundancy notices ri ht scale

Source: Swedish Public E ploy ent ServiceNote . Thr ee mont h moving a ve ra ge .

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73 . Capacity utilisation in industryPer cent, seasonally adjusted data

7

80

8

90

9

81 84 8 7 90 93 9 6 99 0 2 0 087

80

8

90

9Statistics Sw eden, actual capacity utilisation in industry

IER, current capacity utilisation in t e manu acturin industry

S ources: ational Institute o Econo m ic Researc and S tatistics Sw eden

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79/111

74 . Esti ated gapsPercentage deviation fro the HP trend

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

80 82 8 4 86 88 90 9 2 94 9 6 98 00 0 2 04 0 6 08 10 1 2-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6GDPHours wor kedE p lo ent

So u rces:Statistics S weden and the Ri ksban kNote . Br oken lines r ep r esent thr R iks ba nk's for ec a st

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75 . Different agents expectations of inflationtwo years ahead


0

1

2

3

4

96 97 9 8 99 00 01 0 2 03 04 05 0 6 07 0 80

1

2

3

4Purchasing managersSocial partnersMoney mar ket agents

S ource: P rospera Research AB

76 . Actual inflation (CPI) and households and

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co panies expectations of inflation one year ahead


-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 07 0 8 09-1

0

1

2

3

4CPIHouseholds Statistics Sw edenHouseholds I ERCo panies I ER

S ources: ational Institute of Econo ic Research and S tatistics Sw eden

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77 . The difference between no inal and real five-year rates (break-even inflation)

Percentage points

0.0

0.

1.0

1.

2.0

2.

3.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200 2006 2007 20080.0

0.

1.0

1.

2.0

2.

3.0Break-even inflation


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78 . The Econo ists co odity price index for foodUSD

0

0

100

1 0

200

2 0

300

94 9 96 97 98 99 00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 07 080

0

100

1 0

200

2 0

300ood prices

Source: The Econo ist.

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79. Prices of goods and services in the CPIAnnual percentage change

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 01 0 2 03 04 0 06 07 0 8-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4Services 43 .Goods e xcluding energ and food 26 .3% )

S ource: S tatistics S wedenNote . Th e weig ht of the r espective components is given in bra ckets .

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80. Different easures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 0 1 02 03 04 0 06 07 0 8-1

0

1

2

3

4

CPIXTRIM8CPIX excluding energyCPIX excluding energy and food

UND24

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the R iksbank

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81. Inflation in Sweden and the euro areaAnnual percenatge change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

00 0 1 02 03 04 0 06 07 08-1

0

1

2

3

4

Euro area HIKPSweden HIKPSweden CPI

Sources: Eurostat and Statistics SwedenNote : Th e se r ies for Sw eden r efe r s to the CPI a nd the se r ies for the eu r o ar e a r efe r s to HICP.

82 d i f i S d d h

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82 . Food prices for consu ers in Sweden and theeuro area


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

00 01 02 0 3 04 0 06 07 08-2

0

2

4

6

8

10Sweden

Euro area

Sources: Eurostat and Statistics SwedenNote : Th e se r ies for Sw eden r efe r s to the CPI a nd the se r ies for the eu r o ar e a r efe r s to HICP.

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83 . CPI excluding energy and foodAnnual percentage change

-1 .0

-0 .

0.0

0.

1.0

1.

2.0

2.

3.0

3.

4.0

00 01 0 2 03 0 4 0 06 07 08-1 .0

-0 .

0.0

0.

1.0

1.

2.0

2.

3.0

3.

4.0USA CPI

Euro area HICPSw eden HICP

S ources: Eurostat S tatistics Sw eden and Bureau of abor S tatistics

Note . HICP for the eu r o ar e a a nd Sw eden a nd the CPI for the USA

B1 Th d h i i d i h

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B1. The repo rate and the interest rate index in theCPI

Per cent for the respective indices, anuary 1 99 5 = 1 00

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

95 96 97 98 99 00 0 1 02 03 04 0 5 06 07 080

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Interest rate index left sca le)

Repo rate ri ht sca le)

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the R iksbank

B2 C it l t k i d i th CPI d th t

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B2 . Capital stock index in the CPI and the propertyprice index for single-fa ily dwellings


-20

-1

-10

-

0

10

1

20

90 92 9 4 96 98 00 02 0 4 06 08-20

-1

-10

-

0

10

1

20Capital stock indexProperty price index for single-fa ily dwellingsProperty price index for single-fa ily dwellings - 40 uarters o ing a erage


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91/111

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B4 . The CPI excluding certain goodsAnnual percentage change

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

9 96 97 98 99 00 01-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8CPI excluding meat electricit heating oil interest rates petrol ruitand egeta les and teleco m 78%)Meat electricit heating oil interest rates petrol ruit and egeta lesand teleco m 22%)CPI

Source: The Riks ank In lation Report 2001 :2)

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B5 . The CPIX including and excluding energyAnnual percentage change

0

1

2

3

4

95 9 6 97 98 99 00 01 0 2 03 04 050

1

2

3

4

CPIXCPIX excluding energy


Note Br oken lines r ep r esents the for ec a sts f r om Inf la tion r epo r t 2003:1

B6 No inal and real one year interest rates 1 99 6

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94/111

B6 . No inal and real one-year interest rates 1 99 6-200 8

Per cent

-1

0

1

2

3

4

6

7

8

96 97 9 8 99 00 0 1 02 03 04 0 0 6 07 0 8-1

0

1

2

3

4

6

7

8One-year real interest rateRealised one-year real interestrateNo inal one-year interest rate

Sources: NIE R , Prospera Research AB and the R iksbank.

B7 Real repo rate according to the Riksbank's

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B7 . Real repo rate according to the Riksbank sforecasts

Per cent, quarterly data

-1

0

1

2

3

4

6

7

01 0 2 03 04 0 06 07 0 8 09 10 11-1

0

1

2

3

4

6

7Real repo rate

orecast, real repo rate, MPR 200 8:2Forecast, real repo rate, MPU April 200 8Nominal repo rateForecast, no minal repo rate, MPU April 200 8Forecast, no minal repo rate, MPR 200 8:2

Sources : NIER, Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank.

B8 The co panies answers to questions about

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B8 . The co panies answers to questions aboutprice develop ents

Net figures

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep Dec Ma j-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Outco esEx pectations

S ource: The Riksbank

Table A1. Inflation, 1 2- onth

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figuresAnnual percentage change, ( ) = atest PR


Sept. 07 Sept. 08 Sept . 09 Sept. -10 Sept . -11

CPI 2.2 4.6 (3.6) 3.0 (2.5) 2.2 (2.3) 2.1CPIX 1.0 3.8 (2.9) 2.4 (2.2) 2.0 (2.0) 1.9CPIX excl. energy 1.4 2.4 (2.6) 2.2 (2.3) 2.1 (2.2) 2.0CPI with fixed interest rate 1.3 3.9 2.7 2.2 2.1

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Table A 2 . Change in the CPI co pared to the CPIXAnnual percentage change and percentage points, ( ) = atest PR


2 007 20 0 8 2 0 09 2 01 0

CPIX 1. 2 3.0 (2.5) 2.8 (2.2 ) 2.0 (2.0)

Eff ect s of ch anges in mo rtgage int erest exp end itur e 0 .9 0.8 (0.8) 0.6 (0.4) 0.3 (0.3)

Eff ect s of ch anges in ind irect taxes and subs idies 0. 1 0.1 (0.1) 0.2 (0.0 ) 0.1 (0.0)

=CPI 2. 2 3.9 (3.4) 3.5 (2.5 ) 2.3 (2.3)

Table A 3 . Su ary of financial

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yforecasts

Per cent, annual average, ( ) = atest PR


Repo rate 3.5 4.4 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3)Real repo rat e 1.1 1.6 2.610- ear rate 4.2 4.3 (4.5) 4.7 (4.8) 5.0 (5.0)Ex hange rate, T W index, 19 November 1992=100 125.2 122.8 (124.1) 121.9 (123.1) 121.9 (122.9)

General government net lending 3.4 (3.1) 3.1 (2.3) 1.3 (1.7) 0.9 (1.6)

Table A 4. International conditions

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IAnnual percentage change, ( ) = atest PR

Sources: I F, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank

DP 2007 2008 2009 20 1 0

USA 2.2 (2.2) 1.4 (1 .7) 1.6 (2 .5) 3.0 (3 .1)Japan 2.0 (1.9) 1.4 (1 .5) 1.5 (1 .6) 1.6 (1 .5)Euro area 2.6 (2.7) 1.7 (1 .7) 1.2 (2 .0) 1.9 (2 .1)

OECD 2.7 (2.7) 1.8 (2 .1) 1.8 (2 .5) 2.6 (2 .7)

TCW-we ighted 2.8 (2.8) 1.8 (1 .9) 1.4 (2 .1) 2.0 (2 .3)Wor ld 4.9 (4.8) 4.0 (4 .1) 3.9 (4 .2) 4.4 (4 .3)

CPI 2007 2008 2009 20 1 0

USA 2.9 4.3 (2 .6) 2.8 (1 .8) 2.2 (2 .2)Japan 0.0 1.0 (0 .2) 1.0 (0 .4) 0.5 (0 .5)Euro area (HICP) 2.1 3.7 (2 .5) 2.7 (2 .1) 2.3 (1 .9)TCW-we ighted 2.0 3.6 (2 .4) 2.5 (1 .9) 2.1 (1 .9)

OECD 2.4 3.4 (2 .3) 2.6 (2 .0) 2.2 (2 .1)

2007 2008 2009 2010Crude o il pr ice. US D/ barre l Brent 73 (73) 123 (89) 137 (87) 136 (86)Swed ish export market growth 3.9 (4.3) 5.1 (5.8) 3.9 (6.2) 5.7 (6.4)

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Table A 5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, ( ) = atest PR


*Cont r ibution to GDP gr owth, pe r cent a ge points

Pr iva t e consu m ption 3.0 (3.1) 2.2 (2.7) 2.0 (2.9) 3 .0 (3.2)

Pu b lic consu m ption 1.1 (0.3) 0.4 (1.0) 1.0 (0.4) 1 .2 (1.1)

Gr o ss f ix e d c a pi t a l f or m a t ion 8.0 (8.0) 5.6 (4.4) 1.1 (1.9) 2 .6 (2.4)

Invento ry invest m ent , cont r ibution * 0.7 (0.9) -0.6 (-0.1) 0.0 (0.0) 0 .1 (0.1) Ex po r ts 6.0 (5.0) 6.6 (5.5) 3.4 (4.8) 5 .6 (5.9)

Im po r ts 9.6 (9.0) 6.5 (6.2) 4.4 (5.1) 5 .6 (5.9)

GDP 2.7 (2.5) 2.1 (2.4) 1.2 (2.0) 2 .7 (2.8)

GDP, ca len d ar - a djuste d 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.1) 1.4 (2.2) 2 .4 (2.5)

Table A 6 Production and e ploy ent

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Table A 6 . Production and e ploy entAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = atest

PR

Sources: E ploy ent Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

*P e r cent of lab ou r for ce

2 00 7 2 00 8 2 009 2 01 0

Popu lation , a ged 16-64 0.9 (0.9) 0.8 (0.4) 0.4 (0.5) 0.2 (0.1)GDP, cal end ar-a djusted 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.1) 1.4 (2.2) 2.4 (2.5)

Num b er of h ou r s w or ked , cal end ar-adjust ed

3.5 (3.2) 1.3 (1.0) -0.5 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1)

Emp loyed (EU definition ) 2.5 (2.5) 1.4 (1.1) -0.4 (0.2) -0.1 (0.1)Lab ou r fo r ce (EU definition ) 1.5 (1.5) 1.2 (0 .8) 0.2 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1)Unemp loyment , 15-74 (EU definition ) 6.1 (6.1) 5.9 (5.9) 6.5 (5.9) 6.5 (5.8)Lab ou r m ar ket p r og rammes * 1.8 (1.8) 1.8 (1.8) 1.8 (1.9) 1.9 (1.8)

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Table A 8. Repo ratePer cent, annual average


8

Main na r io . . . . .Lowe r inter es t r a t es . . . . .

ighe r inter es t r a t es . . . . .

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Table A 9 . CPIAnnual percentage change


200 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 009 20 1 0

Main scen ar io 1.4 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.3Lo we r inte r est rat es 1.4 2.2 4.0 3.9 3.0Higher inte r est ra t es 1.4 2.2 3.9 3.0 1.4

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Table A1 0 . Real repo ratePer cent


00 00 00 00 Ma i ar iL r i rest rat es 0.1 1.1 1.1 1.3

Hi er i terest rat es 0.1 1.1 2.1 4.1

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Table A11. GDPAnnual percentage change. seasonally adjusted data


1

Ma i sc a r i . . . . .o w r i t re st r a t es . . . . .i her i tere st r a t es . . . . .

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Table A1 3. Percentage of une ployed 1 6-64

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years old, according to I O definitionPercentage of the labour force. seasonally adjusted data


200 6 2007 2008 2009 2010

M ain scena r io 7 . 6 . 5 .9 6 .5 6 .5 owe r in ter es t r at es 7 . 6 . 5 .8 6 .1 6 .

Highe r in ter es t r at es 7 . 6 . 5 .9 6 .8 7 .

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