PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government

Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes

Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle

February 8, 2018

Outline

2

PPIC Statewide Surveys

2018 California election

State and national issues

Conclusions

PPIC Statewide Survey mission

3

Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions

Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion

Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates

– 330,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998– 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys

Californians and Their Government

4

General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle

Telephone interviews, January 21–30, 2018– 70% cell phone, 30% landline– 1,705 adults, ± 3.2% margin of error– 1,042 likely voters, ± 4.35% margin of error

Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and candidates

Opinions on state and federal elected officials, the state budget, sexual harassment in the state legislature, and immigration policy

Outline

5

PPIC Statewide Surveys

2018 California election

State and national issues

Conclusions

Gubernatorial election preferences

6

24

1

3

4

7

8

9

21

23

0 20 40 60

Don’t know

Someone else (vol.)

Doug Ose

Delaine Eastin

John Cox

Travis Allen

John Chiang

Antonio Villaraigosa

Gavin Newsom

% likely voters

Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates

7

54

71

3844

69

5054

26

15

36 3324

2920

0

20

40

60

80

100

All likely voters

Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ethnicgroups

%

Satisfied

Not satisfied

In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June?

Favorability of gubernatorial candidates

8

13

27

11 14

40

8

40

817

1116

30

11

29

0

20

40

60

80

100

TravisAllen

JohnChiang

JohnCox

DelaineEastin

GavinNewsom

Doug Ose AntoniaVillaraigosa

% li

kely

vot

ers

Favorable opinionUnfavorable opinion

16

52

19

3845

7

19

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Kevin de León Dianne Feinstein%

like

ly v

oter

s

Candidate favorabilityFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionNever heard ofDon’t know

US Senate race

9

DianneFeinstein

46%

Kevinde León

17%

Someoneelse3%

Don’tknow33%

Candidate preference

Candidate experience

10

84

25

56

11

65

36

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dem Rep Ind

% li

kely

vot

ers

Experience in elected officeExperience running a business

Which of these is most important to you? That the candidate has experience in elected office, or that the candidate has experience running a business?

44 49

62

43 4331

0

20

40

60

80

100

% li

kely

vot

ers

Experience in elected officeExperience running a business

Important candidate qualities

11

60

17 166

1 10

20

40

60

80

100

Candidate'sstands on

issues

Candidate'sexperience

Candidate'scharacter

Candidate'spoliticalparty

Other/itdepends

(vol.)

Don't know

% li

kely

vot

ers

Which of these is most important to you? Would it be the candidate’s experience, the candidate’s character, the candidate’s political party, or the candidate’s stands on the issues?

Repealing gas tax increase

12

In 2017, the California Legislature passed and Governor Brown signed into law an increase in the state’s gasoline tax. Do you favor or oppose repealing the recently passed increase in the state gas tax?

4739

61

5248

56

3643

0

20

40

60

80

100

All likely voters

Dem Rep Ind

%

FavorOppose

Taxing commercial properties at market rate

13

Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?

4653

34

454339

56

39

0

20

40

60

80

100

All likely voters

Dem Rep Ind

%

FavorOppose

Outline

14

PPIC Statewide Surveys

2018 California election

State and national issues

Conclusions

2632

7

72

3121

1510

2718

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likelyvoters

Dem Rep Ind

%

President TrumpUS Congress

Approval of federal elected officials

15

3026

33

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

% a

dults

President TrumpUS Congress

56 57

76

26

4751 50

69

24

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likelyvoters

Dem Rep Ind

%

Governor BrownCalifornia Legislature

Approval of state elected officials

16

56

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

% a

dults

Governor BrownCalifornia Legislature

State and national prospects for working together and accomplishing a lot in 2018

17

60

2928

67

0

20

40

60

80

100

Governor Brown and the statelegislature

President Trump and the USCongress

%

Yes, will be able to work together

No, will not be able to work togetherDo you think that ____ will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?

Top issue for the governor and legislature

18

Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2018?

14 1411

53

20

9 8 7 6

0

20

40

Immigration Jobs, economy Education,schools,teachers

State budget,deficit, taxes

Infrastructure

% a

ll ad

ults

2017 2018

Outlook for the state

19

Right direction

57%Wrong

direction38%

Don't know6%

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Good times56%

Bad times35%

Don't know10%

Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?

All adults

Perception that the state budget situation is a big problem

20

43

0

20

40

60

80

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

% a

ll ad

ults

Support for the governor’s proposed budget

21

67 66

81

39

62

2428

15

49

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind

%

Favor

OpposeGovernor Brown recently proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes $132 billion dollars in general fund spending…In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan?

Support for spending gas tax revenue

22

7065

80

40

68

2633

18

55

28

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind

%

Favor

OpposeThe governor’s proposed budget plan includes spending $4.6 billion dollars from the recently passed gas tax and vehicle fees to repair roads, highways and bridges...Overall, do you favor or oppose this proposal?

Sexual harassment in the state legislature

23

18 2714 13 22

2829

42 3537

0

20

40

60

80

Alladults

Dem Rep Ind Likelyvoters

%

Fairly closelyVery closely

Approve39%

Disapprove36%

Don't know25%

How closely are you following news about sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democratic leaders in the state legislature are currently handling the issue of sexual harassment and misconduct in the California State Legislature?

State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants

24

6558

83

21

53

3139

15

73

42

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind

%

FavorOppose

Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California?

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals

25

8581

95

58

80

1317

4

38

16

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind

%

FavorOppose

Thinking about undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children, do you favor or oppose the protections given by “DACA”—Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—which include protection from deportation and a work permit, if they pass a background check?

Outline

26

PPIC Statewide Surveys

2018 California election

State and national issues

Conclusions

Conclusions

27

Newsom and Villaraigosa are in a virtual tie in the top-two gubernatorial primary, but a quarter of likely voters are undecided. In the US Senate race, Feinstein continues to lead de León by double digits; a third of likely voters remain undecided.

Likely voters are divided about repealing the recent gas tax and about taxing commercial properties at current market value.

Most Californians favor the governor’s proposed budget and believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. However, expectations of cooperation are low for the president and congress.

Many are closely following news about sexual misconduct in the state legislature; Californians are divided about how Democratic leaders are handling this issue so far.

Californians are most likely to name immigration as the top issue facing the state today, and majorities across parties favor the DACA protections.

PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government

Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes

Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle

February 8, 2018

Notes on the use of these slides

29

These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:

Lunna Lopes (lopes@ppic.org; 415-291-4492)

Thank you for your interest in this work.