Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Moving Toward Sustainable Energy Systems: Exploring Global

Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute

Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders

Moving Toward Sustainable Energy Systems:

Exploring Global Pathways to a Common Destination

Rolf Nordstrom, Great Plains InstituteOctober 24, 2006Minneapolis, MN

Upper Midwest Energy Transition Roadmap



Powering the PlainsWorking on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders

Great Plains Institute



Overview

1. Background 2. Evolution of

Regional Energy and Climate Roadmap

3. CO2 Scenario Results, Roadmap Strategies, and Next Steps

4. Conclusions

Hydrogen bus photo courtesy of Manitoba Energy Development

Initiative



Great Plains Institute

Mission:

To help usher in a renewable and carbon-neutral energy system by mid-century.

The region we serve

We are a 501 (c) 3 nonprofit based in

Minneapolis.



We bring together “odd bedfellows”. . .

Energy and technology executives

Farmers Elected and

government officials Environmental

advocates University researchers

and officialsGPI and PTP-led

U.S. and Canadian delegation to Europe, 2003



We work with them to develop consensus on. . .

1. Public policy

2. Technology demonstration

3. Research critical to commercialization

4. Education of key audiences

Hydrogen Hybrid Bus Recently Cold-weather tested

in Winnipeg



Current Programs

1. Powering the Plains (PTP)

2. Biomass Working Group

3. Coal Gasification Working Group

4. Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative



What is Powering the Plains?

• Public-private coalition dedicated to harnessing full energy potential of our region.

• PTP seeks to:1. Add value to energy and agriculture while

mitigating the risks of climate change; and

2. Help the jurisdictions it serves capitalize on their energy strengths.



What is the Legislators Forum?

SouthDakota

NorthDakota

Minnesota

Manitoba

LegislatorsForum

Bi-partisan coalition of 32 legislative leaders who meet once/year to develop policy consensus on key regional issues

PTP has presented to legislators for the past four years



Legislators Forum delegates called for regional energy

transition that:• “Relies on clean energy

production and carbon sequestration”

• Maximizes Upper Midwest’s comparative advantages:

– Renewable wind, biomass & hydro– Hydrogen from renewables & coal– Experience with coal gasification

& geologic storage of CO2

– Carbon sequestration in soils, wetlands, and woodlands

– Marketing renewable and carbon credits

Legislators Forum in Winnipeg

Paddleboat on the Red River



Resolution asked PTP to. . .

1. “Prepare preliminary scenarios, goals and measurable targets outlining a potential regional energy transition;

2. Identify legislative measures and institutional arrangements needed to implement such a transition roadmap inter-jurisdictionally over time.” Presented Roadmap’s

Executive Summary to Legislators in May

2006



Developing a Regional Roadmap



Technical Basis for Roadmap

1. PTP partnered with U of MN research team

2. Developed model to analyze options to meet energy demand AND reduce CO2

emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2055

3. Initial focus on power sector4. No sacred cows: Efficiency

and all energy types considered



The Past: CO2 Emissions by Fuel & Sector, 1960 and

2000

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300

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O2

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OilCoal

1960

2000

Suggest inserting "Coal" and "Oil" with arrows on left-hand side as well. I have always found this visual to be very striking, but hard to understand. Your arrows really make it more understandable; including them on the left will draw attention to the dramatic increases in those two sectors for our region



The Future: Projected CO2 Emissions

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Projected emissions (1.45% peryear increase)

Actual emissions

20% of 1990 levels

20% of 1990 level



Research Points to Four Urgent Priorities

1. Build new and re-power existing generation with low & zero-CO2 technologies in power sector;

2. Implement geologic and terrestrial carbon sequestration;

3. Deploy low and zero carbon fuels & technologies in transportation sector; and

4. Increase efficiency in electricity and transportation sectors.



Three Scenarios for Achieving Energy & Climate Objectives*

Scenario 1– High energy efficiency with modest coal and

renewables

Scenario 2– High renewables with modest coal and energy

efficiency

Scenario 3– High coal with CCS and modest renewables and

energy efficiency

Modeled conservatively, using only known technologies and costs over 50 yrs

CCS = carbon capture and sequestration for permanent storage of CO2



Efficiency: Least-Cost Option & Climate Solution

Scenarios Cost of Power 80% CO2 Reduction (US$/MWh) Total (US$ billions)

BAU $33.91 1,008 No

Efficiency* $48.77 926 Yes

Renewables $45.68 1,036 Yes

IGCC w/CCS $44.33 1,049 Yes

BAU = Business as usual

*High efficiency scenario reduces projected demand 40 percent over BAU; high renewables and IGCC/CCS scenarios reduce demand 25 percent over BAU.

IGCC w/CCS = Coal using integrated gasification-combined cycle technology with capture & geologic storage of CO2



Main Scenario Conclusions

1. We can meet electricity needs AND reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2055 without significant additional cost.

2. This requires significant efficiency and low- and zero-carbon energy development over 50 years.

Rolf and I discussed having perhaps two slides with "pearls of wisdom", one for each sector, or something along those lines. The conclusions needs somewhat more detail than this.



Portfolio Approach Needed:

7 Key Roadmap Strategies

1. Invest in energy efficiency until generation options cost less.

2. Accelerate commercialization and deployment of advanced coal technologies with CCS.

3. Maximize economic and reliable integration of wind power on the grid & harness wind energy for non-electric applications;



Key Roadmap Strategies

4. Launch cellulosic biorefinery industry for liquid fuels, biogas, bio-products & power from biomass.

5. Advance low-impact hydro development as part of a broader energy portfolio.



Key Roadmap Strategies

6. Build renewable & carbon-neutral hydrogen production and fuel cell industry.

7. Expand electric transmission and other energy delivery infrastructure to enable substantial increases in low & zero-carbon energy.



PTP’s Next Steps on Roadmap

1. Hold community meetings for citizen input on roadmap this fall.

2. Finalize roadmap by January 07.

3. Present roadmap to state & federal policy-makers next year.

4. Pursue implementation of near-term opportunities in roadmap.

5. Expand scenario model and roadmap to include transportation sector in 2007.



Conclusions

1.No silver bullets:• All low/zero-carbon resources & efficiency needed.

2.Energy efficiency is the best return on investment:

• Makes broader energy transition affordable.

3.Renewables & coal/CCS: region’s best economic opportunity:

• Potential to supply North American markets with low-carbon energy.

4.Transition is technically and economically viable:

• But only if we begin measurable, incremental changes now and sustain them over a 50-year timeframe.



Collaboration with India?Toward accelerated commercialization of low- zero-C02

technologies in both countries

We share similar coal types.

Could share information & expertise on:

• Coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration

• Underground gasification?

• Broader energy collaborative? (Coal biochar, advanced wind, biofuels, hydrogen, etc.)



Thank You

For more information, please contact:

• Brad Crabtree, Program Director• Great Plains Institute, (701) 647-2041,

[email protected] and www.gpisd.net or

• Rolf Nordstrom, Program Director• Great Plains Institute. (612) 278-7156,

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.gpisd.net/

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Powering the Plains Great Plains Institute Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders Moving Toward Sustainable Energy Systems: Exploring Global