Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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Moving Toward Sustainable Energy Systems:
Exploring Global Pathways to a Common Destination
Rolf Nordstrom, Great Plains InstituteOctober 24, 2006Minneapolis, MN
Upper Midwest Energy Transition Roadmap
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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Powering the PlainsWorking on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Great Plains Institute
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
Working on tomorrow’s solutions with today’s leaders
Overview
1. Background 2. Evolution of
Regional Energy and Climate Roadmap
3. CO2 Scenario Results, Roadmap Strategies, and Next Steps
4. Conclusions
Hydrogen bus photo courtesy of Manitoba Energy Development
Initiative
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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Great Plains Institute
Mission:
To help usher in a renewable and carbon-neutral energy system by mid-century.
The region we serve
We are a 501 (c) 3 nonprofit based in
Minneapolis.
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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We bring together “odd bedfellows”. . .
Energy and technology executives
Farmers Elected and
government officials Environmental
advocates University researchers
and officialsGPI and PTP-led
U.S. and Canadian delegation to Europe, 2003
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We work with them to develop consensus on. . .
1. Public policy
2. Technology demonstration
3. Research critical to commercialization
4. Education of key audiences
Hydrogen Hybrid Bus Recently Cold-weather tested
in Winnipeg
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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Current Programs
1. Powering the Plains (PTP)
2. Biomass Working Group
3. Coal Gasification Working Group
4. Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative
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What is Powering the Plains?
• Public-private coalition dedicated to harnessing full energy potential of our region.
• PTP seeks to:1. Add value to energy and agriculture while
mitigating the risks of climate change; and
2. Help the jurisdictions it serves capitalize on their energy strengths.
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What is the Legislators Forum?
SouthDakota
NorthDakota
Minnesota
Manitoba
LegislatorsForum
Bi-partisan coalition of 32 legislative leaders who meet once/year to develop policy consensus on key regional issues
PTP has presented to legislators for the past four years
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Legislators Forum delegates called for regional energy
transition that:• “Relies on clean energy
production and carbon sequestration”
• Maximizes Upper Midwest’s comparative advantages:
– Renewable wind, biomass & hydro– Hydrogen from renewables & coal– Experience with coal gasification
& geologic storage of CO2
– Carbon sequestration in soils, wetlands, and woodlands
– Marketing renewable and carbon credits
Legislators Forum in Winnipeg
Paddleboat on the Red River
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Resolution asked PTP to. . .
1. “Prepare preliminary scenarios, goals and measurable targets outlining a potential regional energy transition;
2. Identify legislative measures and institutional arrangements needed to implement such a transition roadmap inter-jurisdictionally over time.” Presented Roadmap’s
Executive Summary to Legislators in May
2006
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Developing a Regional Roadmap
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Technical Basis for Roadmap
1. PTP partnered with U of MN research team
2. Developed model to analyze options to meet energy demand AND reduce CO2
emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2055
3. Initial focus on power sector4. No sacred cows: Efficiency
and all energy types considered
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The Past: CO2 Emissions by Fuel & Sector, 1960 and
2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
OilCoal
1960
2000
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The Future: Projected CO2 Emissions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600M
illi
on
to
nn
es
CO
2
Projected emissions (1.45% peryear increase)
Actual emissions
20% of 1990 levels
20% of 1990 level
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Research Points to Four Urgent Priorities
1. Build new and re-power existing generation with low & zero-CO2 technologies in power sector;
2. Implement geologic and terrestrial carbon sequestration;
3. Deploy low and zero carbon fuels & technologies in transportation sector; and
4. Increase efficiency in electricity and transportation sectors.
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Three Scenarios for Achieving Energy & Climate Objectives*
Scenario 1– High energy efficiency with modest coal and
renewables
Scenario 2– High renewables with modest coal and energy
efficiency
Scenario 3– High coal with CCS and modest renewables and
energy efficiency
Modeled conservatively, using only known technologies and costs over 50 yrs
CCS = carbon capture and sequestration for permanent storage of CO2
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Efficiency: Least-Cost Option & Climate Solution
Scenarios Cost of Power 80% CO2 Reduction (US$/MWh) Total (US$ billions)
BAU $33.91 1,008 No
Efficiency* $48.77 926 Yes
Renewables $45.68 1,036 Yes
IGCC w/CCS $44.33 1,049 Yes
BAU = Business as usual
*High efficiency scenario reduces projected demand 40 percent over BAU; high renewables and IGCC/CCS scenarios reduce demand 25 percent over BAU.
IGCC w/CCS = Coal using integrated gasification-combined cycle technology with capture & geologic storage of CO2
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Main Scenario Conclusions
1. We can meet electricity needs AND reduce CO2 emissions 80% by 2055 without significant additional cost.
2. This requires significant efficiency and low- and zero-carbon energy development over 50 years.
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Portfolio Approach Needed:
7 Key Roadmap Strategies
1. Invest in energy efficiency until generation options cost less.
2. Accelerate commercialization and deployment of advanced coal technologies with CCS.
3. Maximize economic and reliable integration of wind power on the grid & harness wind energy for non-electric applications;
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Key Roadmap Strategies
4. Launch cellulosic biorefinery industry for liquid fuels, biogas, bio-products & power from biomass.
5. Advance low-impact hydro development as part of a broader energy portfolio.
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Key Roadmap Strategies
6. Build renewable & carbon-neutral hydrogen production and fuel cell industry.
7. Expand electric transmission and other energy delivery infrastructure to enable substantial increases in low & zero-carbon energy.
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PTP’s Next Steps on Roadmap
1. Hold community meetings for citizen input on roadmap this fall.
2. Finalize roadmap by January 07.
3. Present roadmap to state & federal policy-makers next year.
4. Pursue implementation of near-term opportunities in roadmap.
5. Expand scenario model and roadmap to include transportation sector in 2007.
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Conclusions
1.No silver bullets:• All low/zero-carbon resources & efficiency needed.
2.Energy efficiency is the best return on investment:
• Makes broader energy transition affordable.
3.Renewables & coal/CCS: region’s best economic opportunity:
• Potential to supply North American markets with low-carbon energy.
4.Transition is technically and economically viable:
• But only if we begin measurable, incremental changes now and sustain them over a 50-year timeframe.
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Collaboration with India?Toward accelerated commercialization of low- zero-C02
technologies in both countries
We share similar coal types.
Could share information & expertise on:
• Coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration
• Underground gasification?
• Broader energy collaborative? (Coal biochar, advanced wind, biofuels, hydrogen, etc.)
Powering the PlainsGreat Plains Institute
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Thank You
For more information, please contact:
• Brad Crabtree, Program Director• Great Plains Institute, (701) 647-2041,
[email protected] and www.gpisd.net or
• Rolf Nordstrom, Program Director• Great Plains Institute. (612) 278-7156,