$6.99Winter 2015WHOS WHOIN THEMIKE DUFFY TRIALWINTER 2015THE HILL TIMES & EMBASSYHILLTIMES.COM/POWERINFLUENCEWHAT ITS REALLY LIKE TO WORK IN THE PMOby Keith BeardsleyHOW 30 NEWHOUSE SEATS will change thegame in 2015by Alice FunkeOTTAWABEER CITYby Rachel Aielloby Mark BurgessINSIDE THEWINE CAUCUSby Asha HingoraniHES GOT THE POWERJoe Olivers about to deliver the election budgetby Mark BurgessELECTION 2015Behind Conservative,NDP, Liberal campaignsby Abbas Rana, Laura Ryckewaert and Rachel AielloWHOS ADVISING HARPER ON IRAQby Chris Plecashby Leslie MacKinnonHAIRSTYLIST TO POLITICAL STARSHARPERS INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IRRATIONALTHIS YOGA CLASS WAITS FOR HOUSE VOTESYOUVE GOT A FRIEND IN TORONTOCentrally located within the downtown core, the Eaton Chelsea, Toronto provides convenient service, essential amenities and comfor table accommodations at an exceptional value. 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Aeroplan offer valid until December 31, 2014REWARDING LOYALTYJoin 1865 and earn exclusive benets including express check-in, late check out, free local calls and 2X the Aeroplan Miles.14153_EC_PowerAndInfluence_Ad.indd 1 2014-09-23 9:19 AMEaton.indd 1 14-10-02 4:35 PMYOUVE GOT A FRIEND IN TORONTOCentrally located within the downtown core, the Eaton Chelsea, Toronto provides convenient service, essential amenities and comfor table accommodations at an exceptional value. Treat yourself to the modern conveniences of our Club Room featuring free High-speed WiFi, nightly turndown service, exclusive access to our E|Club Lounge serving complimentary deluxe continental breakfast and evening hors doeurves and priority check-in at our 1865 desk. From four restaurants and lounges to Exer t Fitness Centre on Deck 27, the Eaton Chelsea is where youll find the perfect balance between work and relaxation.A member of Langham Hospitality Group knows howbusiness gets done!eatonchelsea.com / 1-800-CHELSEA (243-5732)Terms and conditions apply. Aeroplan and the Aeroplan logo are registered trademarks of Aimia Canada Inc. Aeroplan offer valid until December 31, 2014REWARDING LOYALTYJoin 1865 and earn exclusive benets including express check-in, late check out, free local calls and 2X the Aeroplan Miles.14153_EC_PowerAndInfluence_Ad.indd 1 2014-09-23 9:19 AMEaton.indd 1 14-10-02 4:35 PMPower & Inf luence Winter 20151ContentsWinter Issue Vol. 4 No. 1Editors note P. 2PMO Former deputy chief of staff to the Prime Minister, Keith Beardsley, offers a candid take on what its really like to work in the PMO. Its hard work and crazy, long hours. P. 3 Criminal Trial Senator Mike Duffys trial promises to be one for the history books. P. 50 New seats Game changer: how the new electoral map will create new political realities. P. 6 The campaigns With the first fixed-date election, all federal parties have been preparing for the 2015 trip to the polls earlier than usual, nominating candidates and raising money with added urgency. We take an inside look at some of the key people behind the Conservative, NDP and Liberal campaigns. P. 9PollsPolitical public opinion polls might be more self-fulfilling prophecy. P. 20 Foreign affairs Whos advising Harper on Iraq and the Middle East. The top players. P. 22 Environment The Harper governments inaction on climate change is irrational. P. 48With the Tory election strategy bulls-eye on Justin Trudeau and the attempts to characterize him as the in-over-his-head risky leader who thinks the budget will balance itself, Finance Minister Joe Oliver, the occasionally brusque ex-banker, is a suitable foil. p. 27 P&I cover and contents page photographs by Dave ChanThe Top 100The 100 most powerful and influential peoplein government and politics in 2015. P. 23LobbyingAfter being written off by some in the wake of the sponsorship scandal, Earnscliffe Strategy Group, which celebrated its 25th anniversary last fall, regrouped around an approach to lobbying that made it unique when it launched in 1989. P. 52 Style Stefania Capovilla is hairstylist to many MPs, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird. P. 59WineInside the Conservative wine caucus. P. 60BeerOttawas tapping in to craft beer. P. 62MusicFrom amateurs to touring songwriters, music helps the countrys federal lawmakers unwind, relate to constituents, and to one another.P. 64YogaEvery Monday night when the House is sitting, about 10 NDP MPs meet for a yoga class in the Parliamentary Precinct. In the toxic Hill world, it helps their minds, bodies, and political souls. P. 71Power & Inf luence Winter 20152About eight years ago, I thought of the idea of publishing a list of the top 100 people who inuence the federal government and politics in Ottawa, after reading Washington-based Foreign Policy magazines 100 Top Global Thinkers. Foreign Policy ran more than 70 pages of well-written, gritty, and insightful proles along with some massive, beautiful photos and drawings. It was a great, gutsy read. So, we started running our own Canadian list annually in The Hill Times. In 2012, we decided to turn it into a full-blown glossy magazine. We put John Baird on the cover and called it Power & Inuence. It took off. In 2012, we published one issue. In 2014, we added two more to the top 100 in politics list: one led by Embassy editors Carl Meyer and Kristen Shane exploring the top 100 people inuencing Cana-das global future, and the other, led by The Lobby Monitor editor Simon Doyle, who looked at the top 50 business leaders inuencing politics and policy. This year, the magazine will be published four times. P&Is underlying theme is constant: to shed light on the most powerful and inuential people in Canada. Mark Burgess, deputy editor of The Hill Times, compiled this years top 100 people in federal politics and government, after spending two months talking to political staffers, strategists, and lobbyists. It wasnt easy to do and its never an exact science. People come and go, events take over, and things can change on a dime. His list changed a few times, but the 2015 top 100 list is solid and smart. Burgess learned a few tricks of the trade from Bea Vongdouangchanh, former deputy editor of The Hill Times, and our new online editor, who had compiled the top 100 list for the previous six years. Burgess goal was to, as accurately as possible, identify the top people who will be inuencing government policy, decision-making, and public opinion in 2015, including politicians, political staffers, bureaucrats, lobbyists, and media. This years list was also done looking through the lens of the 2015 fall federal election. But there are still only 24 women and three visible minorities on the list. Again, this is a reection of the government and of how power and inuence in politics, government and media are still mostly dominated by white males. Thats not our choice. Our own wish list of 100 would look quite different. Burgess considered the uncertain state of federal politics in 2015 when formulating the list, with those running campaigns highly represented.In this issue, Abbas Rana, Laura Ryckewaert and Rachel Aiello report on the Conservative, NDP, and Liberal campaigns. Pundits Guides Alice Funke looks at how the 30 new ridings will change the game and 308.coms ric Grenier unpacks the polls. But theres plenty more.Starting in the very next issue, Vongd-ouangchanh will be the full-time editor of our Power & Inuence magazine. It will be in excel-lent hands. Enjoy the read. byKATEMALLOYEditors notePower and influence in Ottawa: 2015Editor Kate Malloy Deputy Editor Mark Burgess Assistant Deputy EditorAbbas RanaContributorsDerek AbmaRachel AielloLaura Beaulne-StuebingKeith BeardsleyDenis Calnan Mike De SouzaAlice Funkeric GrenierPeter HendersonAsha HingoraniAnja KaradeglijaLeslie MacKinnonLaura RyckewaertChris Plecash PhotographersDave ChanSam Garcia Jake Wright Vice President, Sales and DevelopmentDon Turner,613-688-8825|dturner@hilltimes.comAdvertising CoordinatorAmanda KeenanCorporate Account Executives Craig Caldbick, 613-688-8827|ccaldbick@hilltimes.comSteve Macdonald, 613-688-8841|smacdonald@hilltimes.comMartin Reaume, 613-688-8836|mreaume@hilltimes.comAdvertising and Sponsorship Executive Ulle Baum,613-688-8840|ubaum@hilltimes.comProduction ManagerBenoit DenaultSenior Graphic and Online Designer Joey SabourinJunior Graphic Designer Melanie BrownWeb Developer Chris Ross General Manager, CFOAndrew Morrow Finance/AdministrationTracey WaleReceptionAlia Kellock HewardCirculation Manager Chris PeixotoDirector of Reader Sales Ryan ONeillReader Sales Executive Matthew CybulskiPublishersAnne Marie Creskey Jim Creskey Ross Dickson Published by Hill Times Publishing 2015 Hill Times PublishingAll Rights Reserved. Power & Inuence is published four times a year.69 Sparks Street, Ottawa, ON K1P 5A5(613) 232-5952 hilltimes.comThe editorial team: Pictured left to right, front row: The Hill Times photographer Jake Wright; Embassy reporter Laura Beaulne-Stuebing; Parliament Nows editor Asha Hingorani; and Hill Times reporters Rachel Aiello and Laura Ryckewaert. Back row: The Wire Reports Derek Abma and Peter Henderson; Embassy reporter Chris Plecash; The Hill Times editor Kate Malloy; The Hill Times deputy editor Mark Burgess; and The Hill Times assistant deputy editor Abbas Rana. P&I photo by Sam GarciaPower & Inf luence Winter 20153I started working in the Prime Ministers Oce right afer the 2006 election and lef in 2008. Working in the PMO was both a privilege and an honour. Te invitation to work there usually comes afer years of hard work and progressive responsibility, and promotion to the PMO should mean that you have the political smarts to do the job. Te style and tone of every PMO is dierent. It is set by the Prime Minister and his chief of sta and will vary with their personalities. Stephen Harpers rst chief of sta, Ian Brodie, successfully managed a pretty diverse group of senior sta members. We were not an easy bunch to handle. We had very dierent skill sets and levels of experience, plus the party was freshly minted and the years of inter-party political warfare werent that far behind us. Mr. Brodie was able to blend our talents together and turn us into a strong, co-ordinated group of se-nior sta members. Not always an easy job.Te general public rarely understands the true size of the PMO. When you say you work in the Prime Ministers Oce they envision a regular oce with just a few sta members. Most are shocked to hear that it could have more than 100 staers. Te number seems high but its not, considering the volume of work done there. If you thought juggling a dozen les in opposition was tough, you can easily double that number in the PMO.BYKEI THBEARDSLEYWhat itsreally liketo work in the PMOIts like being passed through a meat grinder: you go in fresh, whole, and full of ideas, and by the time you leave it, you are changed forever. But thats in every PMO and if youre a political staffer, the PMO is where you want to be.Keith Beardsley was a ministerial chief of staff in the Mulroney years, worked in PC leader Peter MacKays ofce in 1997, joined Stephen Harpers OLO after the merger of Progressive Conservative and Canadian Alliance parties, and went to work in the PMO from 2006, right after the election, until 2008. P&I photograph by Jake WrightPMOPower & Inf luence Winter 20154PMOIf you are a political staer, the PMO is where you want to be. Politically, it is the centre of your universe and a goal that most want to achieve while on the Hill. Te question remains what happens once you get there.I regard working in the PMO as being passed through a meat grinder. You go in fresh, whole and full of ideas, and by the time you leave it, you are changed forever into something or someone friends and family nd unrecognizable as they wonder what happened to the old you. Te trouble is that you are so buried in your work that you have no idea you have changed so much.Your rst few days there are pretty heady ones: suddenly you are a somebody. You have made it. Youre a big shot now. If youre not careful, it can go to your head and you can become unbearable and quite full of yourself. It is sad to say, but I have seen far too much of that over the years. For example, I went from being the direc-tor of research and issues management and Question Period in the Opposition Leaders Oce to deputy chief of sta for issues man-agement and Question Period in the PMO. I had a brand-new, fancy title, but changing titles didnt endow me with new political su-perpowers and vision. Smart PMO staers try to stay grounded and remind themselves that what has really changed is the job titlethey are no more intelligent or experienced than before they walked into the Langevin Build-ing. Too few remember that and they act as if mere acceptance of the job has suddenly blessed them with increased powers of obser-vation and political knowledge that has taken others years to earn. Tis is most evident with the way some PMO staers treat MPs who, in many cases, have spent double or triple the time in political life. And MPs have to face re-election, they arent appointed.For some, it can be a real power trip to know that ministers, MPs, and sta now have to listen to every word you say. All too ofen it becomes the PMO issuing orders as opposed to exchanging ideas with ministe-rial sta, who quite ofen know more about the le than you do. In some cases, it is a crutch used by PMO sta to hide their own lack of experience and knowledge.We had a good mix of senior sta blending experience and enthu-siasm. It helped that some had plenty of experience, plus a long corporate memory that made it easier to evaluate issues and oer advice to the Prime Minister. Over time, you develop the ability to look at an issue and know which ones have to be dealt with and which ones will go away due to a lack of information or media interest. Experience teaches you that not every issue is a crisis or big deal. Not every issue needs someone coming down on a person like a ton of bricks. Tat is where your seasoned senior political sta come in. You have to have a few grey hairs with the experience to know when and how to act, i.e. some adult supervision for the boys and girls in short-pants. Partisan fervour can be a good thing, but constantly going over the top doesnt work either. Experience also allows you to disagree with the Prime Minister. When you think he is approaching something the wrong way, you have to be able to tell him so. Afer all, he hired you to give him advice. You are no use to him if you are a yes man who sits there applauding every word he says or decision that he wants to make. Disagreeing with the boss can make for some pretty uncomfort-able moments in a meeting or one on one, but every Prime Minister has to have the condence in you to respect that when you push back and there are very good reasons for doing so. On a couple of occasions, Mr. Harper joked that he kept Bruce Carson and me around because we had advised every Conservative leader since Sir Robert Borden. Not quite true, but there was a lot of seasoned political experience between the two of us.While the senior staers get all the rec-ognition, media attention, and wield quite a bit of power within the environs of the Hill and party, they couldnt do it without the dedicated group of junior staers working in the PMO. With a sta of roughly 100, most PMO personnel fall into the junior sta category, but they are key to getting the job done. You learn very quickly who you can rely on and who is spinning their The one constant throughout my time in the PMO was the pressure and stress. It never goes away and it is so constant that, over time, you forget it is there.Power & Inf luence Winter 20155PMOwheels or a blowhard that promises a lot but never delivers. I am pleased to say that I had excellent sta and it stayed pretty well intact in both the OLO and the PMO.Like the senior sta, the workday of the junior sta is exceptionally long. My sta was online checking the news as early as 5 a.m., with our rst meeting at 7:15 a.m. Our day would end afer the 10 p.m. news, pro-viding we didnt have something urgent to deal with. Tere was a never-ending supply of emails coming in and untold numbers of les to handle and review and act on every day of the week. To have a couple of hours o on a weekend was a blessing and we counted the days lef before the House recessed, hoping the pressure and volume of work would slacken a bit.Many of the junior sta go unrecog-nized in the hallways when passed by senior staers. Teir hard work is translated into memos that lter up through the approval process to land on the desk of the chief of sta or perhaps the PM. By then their names have usually disappeared from the document and no recognition of the work they put into it remains. I always felt putting my name on someone elses work was unfair and insisted that their name stay in place. I recall one oc-casion when the PM was reading a note and he wanted to know who the person was that had written it, as he didnt think that he had met the person. An order went out for the staer to appear in the PMs oce at once. Expecting the worst, the staer was instead congratulated on the quality of work he pro-duced. Its a little thing, but I can guarantee that staer will never forget that meeting and his morale got a huge boost.Staers became adrenalin junkies, going from highs to lows throughout the day as issues emerged or were dealt with. I nd that looking back, it all blends together and it is hard to put a date on anything that happened. Instead you remember issues, crises or eventsthe days remain a blur.Emails were the bane of our existence; your BlackBerry was glued to your hand. Te sheer volume of email was stagger-ing, each urgent according to the sender, leaving it to the receiver to triage them. On one trip to Montreal, I counted 120 coming in from the time I lef Ottawa until I arrived at my destination.My day always centered around Ques-tion Period: my two key meetings were the brieng and practice session for the PM and the following one prepping the Cabinet ministers. Tose bring back the best memories as you had a chance to meet them, discuss issues with them as well as learn more about them and the issues they were handling.Te one constant throughout my time in the PMO was the pressure and stress.It never goes away and it is so constant that, over time, you forget it is there. You become oblivious to it but its still there, wearing you down. You are never more than one decision away from a politi-cal disaster and severe consequences for the Prime Minister. Something as simple as giving a wrong or poorly thought out answer to a minister can result in horrible media coverage. A mistake can land the PM on the hot seat in Question Period for days on end, hurting both his and the partys image. You live with it and think you have it under control, but you never really do. Burnout is something that every-one has to watch for.Eventually it all comes to an end and you walk away from it. Your name will quickly be forgotten as the PMO meat grinder is always looking for replacement sta to feed it. But you have the satisfac-tion of knowing that you did your part and that you worked in one of the toughest buildings in the country.It doesnt matter which party you rep-resent, working in the PMO can be a life changing experience. It is also interesting to note that in your post-political world, such a shared experience translates into a pretty good relationship with other former PMO members, regardless of which politi-cal party or leader they worked for. Like the senior staff, the workdayof the junior staff is exceptionally long. My staff was online checking the news as early as 5 a.m., with our first meeting at 7:15 a.m. Our day would end after the 10 p.m. news, providing we didnt have something urgent to deal with.Power & Inf luence Winter 20156How will the 30 new ridings change the game in Canadian politics? Three com-peting trends will play out in the ght for the redrawn electoral map in the next federal electionand theyll make it one for the ages.Lack of incumbency: Between 66 and 75 of the 338 House of Commons seats that will be up for grabs in 2015 will not have an incum-bent Member of Parliament on the ballot. At press time, 38 MPs had announced their retire-ment, with two vacant seats and eight others yet to declare their intentions.Add those to the 30 new federal ridings created through electoral redistribution, and you have a lot of wide-open races.New ridings in high-growth areas: Many of the seats that have been added are found in areas of rapid population growth, with new housing developments and an underdevel-oped sense of community and belonging. Vot-ers in these areas will be reached as individu-als rather than as members of an established community. Incumbency and name recogni-tion will be of little value, even in the few new seats that will have an elected MP on the ballot. They are the air war seats.Ripple effects on other ridings: The ad-dition of new seats in Ontario has also caused a drop in the average population of the remaining ridings, making some previously urban-rural seats more urban and therefore changing the nature of those contests.In Saskatchewan, the end of the eight so-called rurban, pie-shaped ridings that joined four quarters of Regina and Saskatoon with their rural rings in favour of ve urban and one rurban seat is expected to change the bal-ance of representation in that province for the rst time in 15 years.A similar pattern could be repeated in Edmonton, whose ridings also became more urban, while the impact of in-migration on electoral contests in other parts of Alberta, such as Calgary and Fort McMurray, also Game changer: how the new federal electoral mapwill create new political realitiesThere are no straightforward answers when it comes to deciphering the 30 new federal ridings, but there are a lot of very interesting questions.Its on: The Danforth in Toronto, Ont. Three competing trends will play out in the ght for the redrawn electoral map in the next federal election, and theyll make it one for the ages: new ridings in high-growth areas, lack of incumbency, and ripple effects on other ridings.BYALI CEFUNKEELECTION2015CHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.Potential. Weallhaveit. At Trent University, webelievetheway you learn is the key that unlocks your future. Here you explore new ideas, innovative ways of thinking and diferent perspectives. Its a voyage of self-discovery where interests are revealed and passions are ignited, inspiring you to reach new heights and nd your place in the world.FIND THE YOU YOU DIDNT KNOW WAS IN YOU.CAN IPICK YOUR BRAIN? WHY YES. YES, YOU CAN.CHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.PETERBOROUGH .OSHAWATrent_Brain_HillTimes_PI.indd 1 11/12/14 10:04 AMCHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.Potential. Weallhaveit. At Trent University, webelievetheway you learn is the key that unlocks your future. Here you explore new ideas, innovative ways of thinking and diferent perspectives. Its a voyage of self-discovery where interests are revealed and passions are ignited, inspiring you to reach new heights and nd your place in the world.FIND THE YOU YOU DIDNT KNOW WAS IN YOU.CAN IPICK YOUR BRAIN? WHY YES. YES, YOU CAN.CHALLENGE THE WAY YOU THINK.PETERBOROUGH .OSHAWATrent_Brain_HillTimes_PI.indd 1 11/12/14 10:04 AMtest.indd 1 14-12-17 10:21 AMPower & Inf luence Winter 20158ELECTION2015remains an open question. These are the ground war seats.Lets consider each factor in greater detail.Lack of incumbencyWe call a riding with no incumbent MP on the ballot an open seat. 2015 will see a lot of open seats, though not a record high.Two other elections stand out in recent history as having high open seat counts:n1993, when it became clear that the Mulroney governments unpopularity would force many government MPs into opposition if they even survived the campaign (all but two did not), and;n2004, which saw the changing of the guard from Jean Chrtien to Paul Martin within the Liberal Party, a newly re-united Conservative Party, and an ambitious and energetic new NDP leader, all set to do battle on new riding boundaries, including seven new seats.nBoth of those elections heralded major changes in the federal political party system in Canada and had an outsized impact on the future of political debate in the country. This year can be expected to do no less.Its also worth noting the above-average number of rst-term incumbents heading into their rst attempt at re-election when the writ drops:nThe majority are wearing NDP colours in the province of Quebec. While theyll face greater competition, particularly in anglo- and allophone Montreal and in Qubec City ridings, one thing they wont have to worry about is the residual strength that Bloc Qubcois incumbents showed in 2011. Expect that residual Bloc vote to shrink in 2015, some to stay home, and some to bolster the NDP in their ght with the resurgent Liberals.nAnother group is the Conservatives who won seats around the ring of Toronto, and whose election gave the government its coveted majority, but whose provin-cial counterparts are mainly Liberals after last springs election.New ridings in high-growth areasMany of the new ridings around the out-skirts of Ontario are a completely clean slate. Consider that what were two ridings in 1988 York North and Markham-Whitchurch-Stouffvillebecame ve seats in 1997, six seats in 2004, and stand at nine ridings today.These commuter ridings around Toronto dont have a long electoral track record, have brand new local riding associations, and will be heavily inuenced by both the competing narratives of the national campaign and the very individualized targeting initiatives using the modern digital tools honed south of the border.Another driver of population growth in these ridings in Ontario and B.C. is immi-gration, so the ability of the parties to target and integrate these new cultural communi-ties in their campaigns will be vital.The uncertainty in these ridings has actu-ally seen many incumbent Conservative MPs choose to run in safer adjacent ridings rather than test the new waters. In doing so, theyve stripped whatever residual benet there might have been from their name recognition and put into question many observers early assumptions that the new seats were a boon for the governments majority re-election.Ripple effects on other ridingsOutside the areas of rapid growth in Ontario, the rural seats will become more rural and the small-town urban seats will become more urban, particularly in the southwest. Seats like Oshawa, Brantford, Cambridge, Sarnia, and Essex will see the balance shift somewhat away from the Conservatives and become more competi-tive for the rst time in several elections.In Saskatchewan, expect to see a more competitive playing eld in Regina-Lewvan, Saskatoon West, Saskatoon University and Saskatoon Grasswoodthe urban seatsand Desneth-Missinippi-Churchill River in the north, which has lost some of the agricultural areas in the south that vote Conservative.Alberta will see a little more competi-tion in open seats in the highly urban areas as well, including Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Centre, Calgary Centre and Calgary Confederation.Vancouver Island in British Columbia is one area where the new seats are causing signicant boundary changes that will in-crease competitiveness mainly between the Conservatives and NDP, while the addition of new seats in South Surrey and the lower Fraser Valley can be expected to merely up the Conservatives seat count.Other factors to considerWhen the new electoral map was published, Elections Canada transposed the 2011 voting results onto the new boundaries and calculated how the parties would do in each seat.This calculation is called the 2011 Transposition, and while its an interesting starting point for any analysis of a new ridings prospects, baked into the cake are a number of outdated factors that tell us more about where the puck was going four years ago than where its headed next time out.Nominal winners: A transposition calcu-lates the nominal winner of a seat, but one that doesnt always make common sense given who the current incumbent is. For example, Winnipeg North Liberal MP Kevin Lamou-reux will be running for re-election as the incumbent MP in a newly-drawn riding with the same name that takes in most of his cur-rent seat, but for which the nominal winner is the NDP. Yet most observers expect him to be re-elected because of a second factor.Assimilation effects: The portions of Kildonan-St. Paul, Man., which is a Liberal-Conservative contest, when added to Winnipeg North, which is a Liberal-NDP race, probably showed a higher Conservative vote for MP Joy Smith than they would do in a battle between Mr. Lamoureux and an NDP competitor. A similar example exists in suburban greater Vancouver, where incum-bent NDP MP Fin Donnelly is running for re-election in a riding the Conservatives nominally win, but the margin would have been drawn from Conservative MP James Moores inordinate popularity, and hes now running next door.Campaign effects: The perception of win-nability in a seat will affect the parties interest in targeting it for local organization support. Ridings such as the rurban Regina and Saska-toon seats, or some of the seats on northern Vancouver Island, are quite sensitive to bound-ary changes, and would not have been as heav-ily targeted by the opposition parties last time around as they will be this time.ConclusionCanadian federal elections have been clas-sied as being either transformative or incre-mental in terms of the way they changed the number, strength and regional support for our national political parties.The year 1993 saw the rise of the Reform Party and Bloc Qubcois. The year 2004 saw the right unite, and 2011 saw the end of the Bloc Qubcois.Will 2015 prove the 2011 upheaval to have been transitory or permanent? You cant answer that question without consider-ing the new electoral map, and as weve seen, there are no straightforward answers, but a lot of very interesting questions.Three competing trends will play out in the fight for the redrawn electoral map in the next federal electionand theyll make it one for the ages.ELECTION2015byABBASRANABehind the Conservative 2015 electioncampaignPrime Minister Stephen Harper is now the sixth longest serving Prime Minister in Canadian history. In November 2014, he surpassed former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroneys eight years and 281 days in ofce and if he runs and wins the next election, he will be the rst Conservative prime minister to win four consecutive mandates.Hes in. Its on.Stephen Harper pictured Feb. 27, 2014, on Parliament Hill. P&I photograph by Jake WrightThe next election is not supposed to take place until Oct. 19, 2015, but in the era of permanent campaigning, all parties have already put their election readiness in high gear. Two critical questions, however, are hampering the opposition par-ties: Will Prime Minister Stephen Harper lead his party to seek a fourth straight mandate in 2015? And, if hes planning on remaining the leader, will he respect his own xed-date election law or pull the trigger when the timing is more favourable? Pundits have been all over the map in answering these ques-tions but Mr. Harper and his senior Cabinet ministers all say in on-the-record interviews that the Prime Minister will lead the party in the next election, and that it will take place as scheduled on Oct. 19.The agenda Ive been planning takes us through to the end of June, Government House Leader Peter Van Loan told reporters on Dec. 11. I dont have any plans, Im not working with any assumption of an early election.We have an election identied for October and were working on that basis.In a year-end interview with the CBC on Dec. 17, 2014, Prime Minister Harper did not rule out the possibility of an early election.Well, I wouldnt say theres nothing that could change it [Oct. 19] but theres nothing on the horizon that I see changing that. We xed that date and were planning on it like everybody else, Mr. Harper said. Mr. Harper also said in the same interview that he would lead his party in the next election.Some senior Conservative staffers and MPs in not-for-attribution interviews say one key hurdle in pulling the plug early is how to justify breaking the xed-date elec-tion law in a majority government. If the Conservatives decide to go early, the two principal reasons would be to avoid the Mike Duffy trial, which begins April 7, and to ride the current wave of momentum thats brought Conservatives neck and neck with the Liberals in the national public opinion polls after the October shootings in the Parliamentary Precinct and family tax cut announcements.But proponents of going early say the timing would only be an issue for the rst few days of the campaign.As far as strategy goes, yeah, sure, you take a hit for the rst week or so and then people move on to other issues, says Keith Beardsley, former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Harper.Every election is a high-stakes game for all the party leaders, especially incumbent prime ministers, but failing to win another majority would likely lead to Mr. Harpers leadership being called into question, and he could decide that he isnt interested in running another minority government. After setting high expectations for himself in the last election by winning a majority, Conservative sources say he will have to meet those again or hes out. In the 2011 election, Conservatives won their majority with 166 seats in the 308-seat House. In 2015 there will be 338 seats up for grabs, requiring 170 seats for a majority. Polling trends suggest this will be a hard number to reach, even more so because with the NDP in Opposition, its the rst election in recent memory where there will be three parties with a shot at forming gov-ernment. How the three-way vote will play out is anybodys guess but given the current polling trends, the winning party is likely to form a minority government. The 2015 election is going to make or break Mr. Harper, Mr. Beardsley says. If he wins it, then he goes out in style but if he doesnt, then he becomes just another defeated Prime Minister.Tim Powers, vice-chairman of Summa Strategies, says the outcome of the next general election has consequences not only for Mr. Harper but also for the opposition leaders.Conservative Party spokesman Cory Hann declined to be interviewed for this article, saying that We dont comment on stafng matters so any speculation on who will be lling what role would be just that. But Conservative sources tell The Hill Times that the next Conservative campaign will be run by the same senior staffers who worked on the majority-winning run in 2011. The main playersJenni Byrne, deputy chief of staff to the Prime Minister, will serve as campaign manager while Guy Giorno, Mr. Harpers former chief of staff, will serve as campaign chair. Both held the same positions in the 2011 election campaign. Party sources say that senior Conser-vatives are still in the midst of nalizing the stafng details and that process will Power & Inf luence Winter 201510Jenni Byrne, pictured left, deputy chief of staff to the Prime Minister, will serve as campaign manager, while Guy Giorno, Stephen Harpers former chief of staff, will serve as campaign chair. Both held the same positions in the 2011 election campaign. ELECTION2015Ray Novak, left, chief of staff to the Prime Minister; Jason MacDonald, top centre, director of communications to Mr. Harper; Dustin Van Vugt, top right, executive director of the Conservative Party; Fred DeLorey, above centre, director of political operations of the Conservative Party, and Cory Hann will all be working on the Conservative campaign. 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The reason, they explain, for not nalizing all the positions at this time is that if the election happens in October, some staff-ers may no longer be available for the campaign for family or work reasons.Within the party circles, Ms. Byrne is known as a no-nonsense, hyper-partisan, ruthless campaign operative who is never shy about dressing down any staffer or party candidates who fail to follow the na-tional campaign instructions in letter and spirit. In the 2004, 2006, and 2008 election campaigns, she worked closely with the late Doug Finley, who played a key role in building a formidable election machine for his party. Mr. Giorno, a partner at the Fasken Martineau law rm, who currently is also the Conservative Partys legal advis-er, in the past served as chief of staff to former Ontario premier Mike Harris. Others expected to serve in senior roles in the next election campaign include: Ray Novak, chief of staff to the Prime Minister; Bill Hawkins, principal secretary to Mr. Harper; Sean Speer, spe-cial adviser to the Prime Minister; Jason MacDonald, director of communications to Mr. Harper; Dustin van Vugt, executive director of the Conservative Party; Fred DeLorey, director of political operations of the Conservative Party, and Mr. Hann. Mr. Novak, who has been serving as a political aide to the Prime Minis-ter since 2001, is the longest-serving member of the Harper inner circle. He even lived in a loft above the detached garage at Stornoway. As executive assistant to Mr. Harper, Mr. Novak used to spend almost all his waking hours with the-then Opposition leader and his family. Though hes the top staffer in the Harper government, he has always preferred to keep a low prole. As in the last four election campaigns, he will be part of the Prime Ministers tour team and travel with Mr. Harper.Mr. MacDonald is also expected to travel with the Prime Minister in the next campaign. As the chief spokesman, he will be assisted by junior commu-nications staffers on the plane. Prior to joining the PMO in Sept. 2013, Mr. MacDonald headed Aboriginal Affairs Minister Bernard Valcourts commu-nications shop. Before that he served as a spokesman for the CBC and also ran unsuccessfully in the 2011 Ontario provincial election as a Progressive Con-servative Party candidate. Conservative MPs Not RunningRiding % Won In2011 ElectionConservative MP Diane AblonczyCalgary-Nose Hill, Alta. 70.2%Conservative MP Mike AllenTobique-Mactaquac, N.B. 62.7%Conservative MP Ray BoughenPalliser, Sask. 47%Conservative MP Garry Breitkreuz Yorkton-Melville, Sask. 68.9%Conservative MP Barry Devolin Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Ont.60%Conservative MP Peter Goldring Edmonton East, Alta. 52.%Conservative MP Laurie HawnEdmonton Centre, Alta. 48%Conservative MP Russ HiebertSouth Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, B.C. 54.6%Conservative MP Gerald Keddy South Shore-St. Margarets, N.S. 43.1%Conservative MP Greg Kerr West Nova, N.S. 47%Conservative MP Ed Komarnicki Souris-Moose Mountain, Sask.74%Conservative MP James LunneyNanaimo-Alberni, B.C.46.4%Conservative MP Colin Mayes Okanagan-Shuswap, B.C.55.4%Conservative MP Rob Merrield Yellowhead, Alta.77%Conservative MP Gordon OConnor Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Ont.57%Conservative MP Rick NorlockNorthumberland-Quinte West, Ont.53.8%Conservative MP LaVar Payne Medicine Hat, Alta.71.5%Conservative MP Joe PrestonElgin-Middlesex-London, Ont.57.5%Conservative MP Gary Schellenberger Perth-Wellington, Ont.54.5%Conservative MP Brian Storseth Westlock-St. Paul, Alta.77.8%Conservative MP Maurice Vellacott Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Sask.58.4%Conservative MP Pat Davidson Sarnia-Lambton, Ont.52%Mr. Speer is taking the lead role in writing the Con-servative Partys election plat-form. Conservative sources told The Hill Times that most of the campaign promis-es will be taken out of the governments 2015 budget, to be tabled by Finance Minister Joe Oliver in the coming months. Before joining the PMO, Mr. Speer worked for the Fraser Institute as an as-sociate director, and as policy director to former nance minister Jim Flaherty.Mr. Hawkins, who moved from being the chief in International Trade Minister Ed Fasts ofce to principal secretary in the Prime Min-isters Ofce in December, is expected to travel with the PM in the next election campaign. In 2011, he ran the Conservative Partys second-ary election tour in which Cabinet ministers travel outside their ridings to boost other candidates.Mr. van Vugt is current-ly overseeing the Conser-vative Partys nomination process across the coun-try. During the election campaign, hes expected to work closely with Mr. De-Lorey to put out political fires and oversee the overall campaign operations.Mr. van Vugt, former chief of staff to Bal Gosal, minister of state for amateur sport, was appointed to the top party job in July. He succeeded Dimitri Soudas, who was let go after he made national headlines for using his party position to support his ance, Conservative MP Eve Adams, nomination campaign. Mr. DeLorey, a Nova Sco-tia native, in the past served as the Conservative Partys director of communications.Mr. Hann, who joined the party headquarters as communications director in 2013, was an exempt staffer to then-democratic reform minister Tim Uppal and former intergovernmental affairs minister Peter Penashue.Tory MPs Not Running In 2015 So Far:Conservative Partys 2011 Election Campaign ExpensesParty electionexpense limit: $20,995,088.91Total spent on election: $19.4-millionAdvertising: Radio & Television: $10.4-million Other:$167,904 Election surveys & research: $369,263 National campaignoffce expenses:$397,044 Professional Services: $2,345,324 Leaders Tour:$2,661,660 Travel (ExcludingLeaders Tour):$29,708 Salaries and wages: $758,210Other:$2,319,393September 2014 Quarterly:Contributions: $4.2-millionNumber of Contributors: 35,2012014 Financial Returns to date: Total Fundraised: $14.6-millionTotal Donors:102,803Compiled from Elections Canada nancial returns.Power & Inf luence Winter 201513ELECTION2015The NDP will run its biggest campaign yet in 2015, with a focus on emphasizing Thomas Mulcairs leadership and providing voters with concrete examples of what a rst-ever NDP federal government would look like. This will be a bigger campaign than we have run before. It will be more complex, it will be larger, it will have more moving pieces and it will have all of those advantages of having provided the level of united and disciplined opposition that weve been able to provide, says Anne McGrath, the NDPs national director and national campaign director for 2015.byLAURARYCKEWAERTBehind the NDPs 2015Since stepping into the role of offcial opposition for the frst time in 2011, the NDP has done much to revamp and ramp up its internal operations, hiring new party pollsters and a new advertising company, setting up new voter information database software to replace its old NDP Vote system, and seeking new expertise on how to reach out to voters.election campaignNDP Leader Tom Mulcair pictured in Ottawa in April 2014 with adviser Geoffrey Chambers, left, and staffer George Smith. P&I photograph by Jake WrightPower & Inf luence Winter 201514Since stepping into the role of ofcial opposition for the rst time in 2011, the NDP has done much to revamp and ramp up its internal operations, hiring new party pollsters and a new advertising company, setting up new voter information database software to replace its old NDP Vote system, and seeking new expertise on how to reach out to voters. Overseeing this work is NDP matriarch Ms. Mc-Grath, former chief of staff to the late NDP leader Jack Layton, who was recruited back to party headquarters as national director last April after a stint at Ottawa lobby rm Ensight Canada. All three major parties have already unofcially kicked off the 2015 campaign, which is expected to be a three-party race. For the NDP, thats meant sending Mr. Mulcair on the road to meet with Canadians and make specic, concrete policy announcements, like the $15-a-day national childcare program announced back in October. The party has also been moving closer to the centre with its policy stances in an effort to reach out to new voters, recently supporting the Canada-Korea free trade agreement, for example. With so many new ele-ments, including a new leader in Mr. Mulcair, Ms. McGrath brings a sense of continuity and familiarity to the cam-paign. Shes expected to be an asset in helping the party keep connected with its past, navigate regional quirks and develop a policy platform that gels with the base, particularly given recent efforts to move the party closer to center and the negative effect such efforts had recently with Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Shes very good at listen-ing to and reading people, she understands nuance in people. For the NDP, thats very important because its a party made up of people who are real true believers, says Robin Sears, a former NDP strategist whos now a principal at Earn-scliffe Strategy Group.At the beginning of December, the NDP had 45 candidates nominated and roughly 100 candidates were nominated by January. The core campaign team is already in place, says Ms. McGrath. But the partys keeping mum on names.The NDP campaign teamNDP MPs Alexandre Boulerice and Jean Crowder are the campaign co-chairs, while party president Rebecca Blaikie is the Quebec cam-paign manager and has a key role to play on the road to forming government. As campaign co-chairs, Ms. Crowder and Mr. Bouler-ice have been serving as liai-sons between the party and the federal caucus on policy and campaign ideas.New Democratic Partys 2011 Election Campaign ExpensesParty electionexpense limit: $21,025,793Total spent on 2011 election: $20,319,567Advertising: Radio & Television: $9,511,705 Other:$1,444,937 Election surveys & research: $1,543,619 National campaignoffce expenses:$633,098 Professional Services: $156,770 Leaders Tour:$4,314,365 Travel (ExcludingLeaders Tour):$430,452 Salaries and wages: $1,866,640 Other:$417,977September 2014 Quarterly Contributions:$1.7-million2014 Financial Returns to date Total Donors 67,290 Total Fundraised:$5,759, 729ELECTION2015**Limit is calculated by multiplying the number of names on the preliminary list of electors for each riding in which the party is running a candidate by $0.70 (as set out in the Canada Elections Act). Compiled from Elections Canada Returns12 34689571. Jeremy Bird.2. Veteran staffer Karl Blanger.3. Media staffer Marc Andr Viau.4. NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice.5. NDP MP Jean Crowder.6. NDP president and Quebec campaign manager Rebecca Blaikie.7. NDP digital director Michael Roy.8. National campaign director Anne McGrath9. Senior staffer George Soule.P&I photos by Jake Wright and handoutsThe NDP has been actively working with former advisers from U.S. President Barack Obamas 2008 campaign against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, specifically Jeremy Bird and his firm, 270 Strategies.Power & Inf luence Winter 201515When the writ drops, Mr. Boulerice, whos become well known among Quebec voters since rst being elected in 2011, will be an active spokesperson and public face for the party in the province (alongside Ms. Blaikie), while Ms. Crowder, whos already announced she wont seek re-election, will be working to support the campaign, including helping out the partys new can-didates in southern B.C.George Soule, associate director of media for the party, is expected to play a senior communications role. James Pratt, who worked as a eld organizer for the par-ty prior to 2011 and after the last election spent time focused on MP set-up and support before taking on his current role as the partys director of organization, will play a leading role.Veteran NDP staffer Karl Blanger, currently principal secretary to the leader, is expected to play a senior role, and the partys digital director since June, Michael Roy, is also set to be part of the core cam-paign team.Danielle Sampson, previously the Ca-nadian Federation of Students Nova Scotia national representative whos recently been doing eld organization work at party head-quarters, will join the campaign team, as will David Hare, another CFS alumnus whos now the partys director of eld operations. Recently-departed senior caucus press secretary Marc-Andr Viau, now working for the party out of Quebec, is expected to work on the campaign, as are most staff cur-rently working in the NDP leaders ofce.The partys central campaign war room will be located in party ofces at Bank Street and Laurier Ave. West. The building is owned by the NDP, with its ofces on the top oor, and also serves as collateral for the party should it need a loan. Some help from Obama in the fundraising battleThe NDP has done much to increase its fundraising operations since 2011 and is bringing in more per quarter than in years past, and from more donors. But Conser-vative and Liberal fundraising operations have also improved, and the NDP has con-sistently been raising less. The NDP paid off the last of its roughly $5-million 2011 campaign debt in 2013-14.As the party is quick to point out, it raised and spent right up to the expense limit last election. But with the election already unofcially underway, pre-writ spending is more important than ever and the cash-rich Conservatives have already begun lling the radio airwaves with political ads.You need a big pot of gold to play in that [pre-writ] game, says Mr. Sears. Far from burying its head in the sand, the party has been working to counter an antici-pated nancial disadvantage through planning, and has been actively working with former advisers from U.S. President Barack Obamas 2008 campaign against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, specically Jeremy Bird and his rm, 270 Strategies. Mr. Obamas comparatively cash-strapped 2008 nomination campaign used innovative tactics, enabled by social media, to encourage a large and enthusiastic grassroots campaign connecting supporters by common interests across electoral districts and encouraging them to work together to get Mr. Obama elected. The discussions have been more than discussions. There have been very active training sessions where theyve been trying to help the Obama people understand the peculiarities of the Canadian system in or-der to translate the American learnings into a Canadian context, says Mr. Sears. But its not all good news for the NDP. While the party will benet from a larger incumbent slate, the popularity of the Liberals and the undeniable advantage the Conservative party holds in standing alone on the right present big challenges to the NDPs hopes of forming government. Despite the NDP being ofcial oppo-sition, Conservative rhetoric this past year has focused on attacking Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, and the NDP has similarly worked to attack Liberals on the policy front and establish itself as the only real progressive alternative to Prime Minsiter Stephen Harper, something the Liberals are also aiming to do as a split vote on the left means a victory for the right.Byelections throughout 2014 suggest some cause for NDP concern. The party lost a coveted downtown Toronto seat, Trini-ty-Spadina, to the Liberals, and its share of the popular vote was down from 2011 in ve others. The NDP also consistently trailed behind the third-party Liberals in political polls last year and the party hasnt fared well in a number of recent provincial elections. But Ms. McGrath says the NDP was down in the polls ahead of the last election as well.One thing polls cant account for are swing voters, and experts predict a volatile electorate in 2015. Undecided voters often avoid politics until the writ ofcially drops, says Greg Lyle, owner of Innovative Research Group. One of the jobs of the NDP campaign at the beginning of the new writ is going to be to introduce Mulcair to people that hav-ent been paying attention, says Mr. Lyle.Specic policy announcements not only t with the NDPs plan to give Canadians a clear idea of what an NDP government would look like, they also serve as import-ant practice runs for staff ahead of the 2015 leaders tour, says Shay Purdy, a consultant at Summa Strategies who worked on the NDPs 2011 campaign.Were seeing a lot of these cam-paign-style events and campaign-style tours taking place in the lead-up to the campaign because its very important for the leader and the team around him to nd that rhythm and nd that level of perfor-mance thats going to be required right off the bat, says Mr. Purdy.The NDPs 2015 leaders tour will also be shaped by the fact the party has its largest-ev-er roster of incumbent MPs heading into the election, even with recent MP departures.Thanks to 2013s electoral redistribu-tion, parties will be working with 30 new ridings and re-jigged riding boundaries in 2015, which have improved the NDPs electoral chances with the creation of new, urban ridings in Western Canada, particu-larly in Saskatchewan.The NDP came a close second (with a vote margin of ten per cent or less) in 21 ridings across Canada in 2011, pre-dominantly in Quebec, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, and the party has these ridings and otherslike the newly-con-stituted riding of Edmonton-Griesbach, Alta.in its crosshairs.Ms. McGrath says other target ridings include Egmont, P.E.I., where former provincial NDP leader Herb Dickieson has been nominat-ed as a candidate; as well as Elmwood-Transco-na, Man., where Daniel Blaikie, son to former MP Bill Blaikie and brother to current president Rebecca, is running as a candidate. While the Liberals are polling high on a national level, the NDP benets from more regionally concentrated support, says Mr. Lyle.The NDP have never come into an election with such a strong win in a previous election. Theyre clear second in terms of seats, and thats important, says Mr. Lyle. Pollsters widely agree that the NDP needs to hold onto a majority of its current 59 seats in Quebec to maintain its ofcial opposition status, let alone win government, and that gaining ground in seat-rich Ontario will also be key, particularly in southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area. ELECTION2015ELECTION2015The Liberals have decided their bid to form government in the 42nd Parliament will be won on the ground, with a focus on bringing in prominent candidates and making use of a well-cur-ated data component. There has been a clear switch in messaging from the rebuilding banners behind former interim leader Bob Rae to building the team, building the plan that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeaus team has coineda slight semantic change that marks a signicant shift in approach. Nothing in politics is accidental, especially in this elongated election season, and the core team driving the bus for the Liberal Party across Canada is planning each component. The decision not to release policy yet, according to Liberal sources, has everything to do with their runway of a year of good polling to comfortably launch them into an election campaign, and less to do with the notion that the party is soft on policy. The party insiders say theyre condent that supporters know where Mr. Trudeau stands and the rest of the country will know well in advance of marking their ballots. The decision to recruit political newcomers is part of bolstering the change narrative the party is banking on. From each bullet point on party pamphlets and the gimmicks used in fundraising emails, to the stops the plane will be making and the focus of the federal debatethese are the core people behind the decisions. Theyve all been advising Mr. Trudeau since his suc-cessful leadership campaign in 2013, and will lead him into his rst federal election as the Liberal leader. The A Team: Katie Telford: National Campaign Co-Chair Katie Telford, according to Liberals, is a good thinker and planner with a steady hand on the numbers, gauging where support is coming from, or where the focus should be. Described by National Party Director Jeremy Broadhurst as having one of the best strategic pol-itical minds in the country, she closely monitors the emails that come in and the response garnered from the partys pitches, whether it be related to policy or establishing what fundraising resonates. Shes also built up what has been described as a quite brilliant micro-targeted approach seen in emails to supporters, with subject lines like Can you check this? making some political insiders think Ms. Telford had person-ally emailed them for assistance. Katie Telfords ability to modernize the anti-quated Liberal fundraising machine has been quite remarkable, not just in its ability to raise money and increase donors, but in terms of providing feedback about what messages are working and who they are working with, says Greg MacEachern, vice-president at Environics Communications and a former Liberal Hill staffer. So some of those small donations are actually perhaps more about indicating what policy or statements are resonating with different groups. byRACHELAI ELLOThe key players in the Liberals 2015 federal election campaignLiberal Leader Justin Trudeau pictured on Parliament Hill. P&I photograph by Jake WrightDan Gagnier: National Campaign Co-ChairDan Gagnier has been in the political game for nearly as long as Mr. Trudeau and many of the other Liberal staff have been alive. A veteran hand out of Quebec, Mr. Gagnier has served as chief of staff to former Quebec premier Jean Charest, as well as chief of staff to former Ontario premier David Peterson. Mr. Gagnier has also worked on many campaigns at various levels and spent time at both the Privy Council Ofce and the Department of Foreign Affairs, and in the private sector with the Energy Policy Insti-tute of Canada, Alcan and Beer Canada. Hes the type of guy who has seen many situations here in Canada and brings to the table all of that experience so we can just turn to him and say, What do you think of this, or what do you think of that? says Louis-Alex-andre Lanthier, senior adviser at Summa Strategies and former aide and campaign director to Mr. Trudeaus campaign in Papineau, Que. Mr. Gagnier is able to tell the team what has and hasnt worked in the past, Mr. Lanthier says, and he can also tap into a vast network of other experienced strategists.Gerald Butts: Principal AdviserGerry Butts is a long-time friend of Mr. Trudeau and his most trusted condant. Hes known for being able to sit and talk an issue out with him, with ease. Hes considered among Liberal insiders to be the big thinker and is the go-to guy that many other top staff rely on for advice or insight into how to handle situationsfrom managing a story in the media to what policies and campaign platform planks will be announced, and when. According to Liberal insiders, Mr. Butts and Ms. Telford are the ones really pulling the strings and calling the shots. He will be travelling alongside the Liberal leader throughout the campaign and will play an integral role in sculpting the election strategy. He, alongside Mike McNair and Robert Asselin (each proled below), will hold daily policy briengs, conferring both with Mr. Trudeau and over email or phone calls with the team in the war room. Based in Toronto, Mr. Butts has a high prole in Ottawa and online where, as Mr. MacEachern puts it, he isnt afraid to mix it up with a Cabinet minister. There also seems to be no more than six degrees of separation between him and other top Liberal advisers, either from crossing paths at Queens Park during his time as principal secretary to Ontario premier Dalton Mc-Guinty or during his tenure as president and CEO of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Mike McNair: Lead Policy AdviserMike McNair will be the top man in the Liberal policy shop in the elec-tion. Hes played a simi-lar role under both Mi-chael Ignatieff and Mr. Dion, as well as acting as head of the Liberal research bureau and, between 2011-2013, as a man-ager of strategy and operations consulting Power & Inf luence Winter 201517The NAVCENTRE is one of the largest Conference& Training facilities in Canada. Over 650,000 square feet, this self-contained centre ofers a modernand fexible environment in a secure setting. Training & Conference Space: 60,000 square feet.70 intelligent, modern spaces, up to 500 persons Accommodations: 551 guestrooms & suites Security: 24/7 on-site security Food & Beverage Outlets: Propeller seating for 450;Le Caf featuring Starbucks; JETSET Pub Private Banquets: Up to 500 persons Fitness & Recreational: NAVFIT 27,000 square foot ftness centre, 25 metre lap pool, 9700 square foot gymnasium, NAVSPA Parking: Free on-site parking for 500 vehiclesContact: Venetia Zanellanavcentre.ca E: venetia.zanella@navcanada.ca T: 613.293.7071test.indd 1 14-12-08 2:08 PMELECTION2015at Deloitte. Hes the man writing the policies and is known to be the go-to when questions are asked about how the Liberals can best approach an issue that aligns with the partys focus. Having a high prole within the party over the last number of years and having been the policy guy for two former leaders that werent success-ful will surely be on his mind moving forward. Helping Mr. NcNair in the policy drafting process will be caucus critics feeding information inside as well as pulling in whats being heard as Mr. Trudeau meets with groups across the country. As Mr. Broadhurst puts it, two people holed up in the leaders ofce wont formulate the policy book. Expect it to be encapsulated in their middle-class target.Robert Asselin:Strategist and policy adviser Robert Asselin will have two key jobs in the 2015 election. The rst is preparing Mr. Trudeau for debates. The second is formulat-ing policy developments and big ideas into bite-sized and franco-phone-friendly sound bytes to be incorporated in speeches. The message should have broad appeal but also answer the question, What would a Liberal government in Canada in 2015 under Justin Trudeau look like? Mr. MacEachern says. Not an easy task, but Mr. Asselin has experience as a senior ofcial in past Liberal ministerial ofces, as well as in the PMO under Paul Martin. He was re-cently appointed vice president of policy and research at Canada 2020 think-tank.The other central players on the campaign team all have an idea of the role they will be playing when the writ drops, including a handful of Mr. Trudeaus ofce staff who will be taking an unpaid leave to work on the campaign, on the partys dime.There will be the concentrated team on the plane, the top ve and possibly others to be determined, and then the remaining 40 or so people at campaign head-quarters, which turns into the Liberals war room. Communications: Communications for the Liberals during the election will be divided between Kate Purchase, left, who will act as director of English communications, Mylne Dupr, right, as director of Quebec communications, and Olivier Duchesneau, upper right, communications manager and spokesperson for the Liberal Party. Although not set in stone yet, it is anticipated that Mr. Duchesneau will remain at party headquarters and oversee the communications crew in the war room, while Ms. Dupr and Ms. Purchase, who normally work in the leaders ofce, will be involved managing the messaging along the campaign trail, dealing with reporters and media appearances. Expect to see more of the messaging the party has been rolling with since Mr. Trudeau was elected. According to party insiders, hope and hard work isnt going anywhere, and its likely other lines will come forward as policy planks are revealed. Leaders Office:Other staff in the leaders ofce expected to take leaves for the campaign trail include: Marlene Floyd, as director of operations and outreach: Ms. Floyd will have a big hand in planning the leaders tour, heading up the team of current and new staff that will logistically sort out the ve Ws for each leg of the campaign, from all the mundane necessities like audio-visual equipment and feeding the journalists to ight or other travel plans. Ms. Floyd left her position at Earnscliffe Strat-egy Group to work for Mr. Trudeau. Marci Surkes, who is part of the policy branch, will be working with Mr. McNair from a temporary seat at the Liberal HQ. Kevin Bosch, senior research adviser, will also be a part of the war room, as he has been for a number of elections. Accord-ing to Liberal sources, it has yet to be determined whether Mr. Trudeaus chief of staff, Cyrus Reporter, will be moving into the war room for this election. He has previous war-room experience from former prime minister Paul Martins 2005 election campaign.Ofcial photographer Adam Scotti will be travelling alongside Mr. Trudeau throughout the campaign, as seen throughout 2014s many byelec-tions, book signing stops and cultural festivals. Mr. Trudeaus assistant Tommy Desfosss role has yet to be solidied. The Data-Driven Duo: The Liberals have been working to put in place a digital and data-driven get-out-the-vote system, making key investments in the people they have and how its set up to make sure theyre on the cutting-edge. The party has been building Power & Inf luence Winter 201518ELECTION2015Liberal Partys 2011 Election Campaign ExpensesParty electionexpense limit: $21,025,793.18Total spent on election: $19.5-millionAdvertising: Radio & Television: $8.3-million Other:$3.6-million Election surveys & research: $1-million National campaignoffce expenses:$1-million Professional Services: $168,775 Leaders Tour:$3.5-million Travel (ExcludingLeaders Tour):$145,908 Salaries and wages: $1.2-million Other:$578,258September 2014 Quarterly:Contributions: $3.3-million Number of Contributors:34,953 Liberal 2014 Financial Returns To Date: Total Donors: 102,170 Total Fundraised: $11.3-millionCompiled from Elections Canada Returnsup its expertise on Liberalist, a Wash-ington-originated, sophisticated voter outreach system theyve been adding data to for years, but in a more concentrated way in all 338 riding associations since the nomination process began. According to Liberal sources, Adam Carroll, whose formal title is national cam-paign mobilization manager, will be involved. Hes one of the LPC members who has been working on the get-out-the-vote system (GOTV) since he joined the party staff in 2012, following his dismissal as a Liberal Parliamentary staffer over the infamous Vikileaks Twitter page. Described by party insiders as a smart guy, its clear his role in the next election will be integral to making the best use of the database. Working closely with Mr. Caroll will be Richard Maksymetz, senior director for campaign mobilization, who over the last number of months has been using each byelection as a practice run to make sure things are ring on all cylinders, as one source put it. Its a highly operational role and involves guiding political organization through the use of digital and data-sourced GOTV information. Social Media, Polls and Advertising: Another component of the partys data focus, yet to be fully eshed out, will be its approach to social media and the use of focus groups. One of the key faces on this front will likely be Suzanne Cowan, who worked for Mr. Trudeaus leadership campaign. Ms. Cowan, the daughter of opposition leader in the Senate James Cowan, will be working in some communications or advertising role. The advertising rm the party will be using, according to sources, has not been rmed up yet, although those who know were not were willing to conrm publicly. In past elections the Liberals have used Red Leaf. The pollster the party will be relying on is Toronto-based Gandalf Group. David Herle, a former Liberal strategist for Paul Martin and, most recently, Kathleen Wynnes 2014 election win, and his team werent involved in the last federal election but were brought in following their work on Mr. Trudeaus leadership campaign.Fundraising: While some thought the partys early fundraising success following Mr. Trudeaus leadership win was little more than a honeymoon effect, the latest quar-ters numbers indicate otherwise. Theyve been upping the number of donors, over 30,000 each quarter, for the last six quarters. The two people pointed to as deserving the credit for the amount of money being raised are Christina Topp, se-nior director of fundraising, and Stephen Bronfman, chief revenue chair.Ms. Topp, who knows Mr. Butts from their days fundraising at the WWF, will continue to be in charge of developing the fundraising plan. Ms. Topp will also report to Mr. Bronfman. As the head of his own investment rm, and part of the Seagrams liquor family, Mr. Bronfmans signature at the bottom of an email or letter goes a long way, or at least ensures it gets opened, when trying to pull in big business or private donors. Mr. Bronfman is considered to be at the top of the partys fundraising chain.Power & Inf luence Winter 201519test.indd 1 14-12-17 10:19 AMELECTION2015Power & Inf luence Winter 201520POLLSPOLLS MIGHT BE MORE Public opinion: Protesters pictured on Parliament Hill last year. On April 21, 2011, La Presse reported on the results of a new poll from CROP. For the rst time in the polling rms history, the New Democrats were polling in rst place in the province. The Bloc had dropped into second. The political landscape in Quebec was about to be transformed. P&I photo by Jake WrightAs long as polls are done accurately, they directly and indirectly provide the kind of information voters can choose to take into account when casting a ballot. Infuential? You bet. But with great power.byRI CGRENI ER Which came rst, the chicken or the egg? Its a question that can be applied to the world of political public opinion poll-ing. In an election campaign, do promising polls for a party lead to strong results at the ballot box, or are polls merely capturing a groundswell in public support?In the end, polls might be more of a self-fullling prophecy.At the beginning of the 2011 federal election campaign, the lay of the land was well known. The Conservatives were aiming for a majority they were unlikely to get. The Liberals had not managed to connect with voters to any signif-icant degree and would struggle to seriously challenge for government. The New Democrats were more of a thorn in the Liberals side than a plausible alternative, while Gilles Duceppes Bloc Qubcois looked on track to win a majority of Quebecs seats, yet again.Of course, things did not turn out that way. And the rst indication that they would not came on April 21.That day, La Presse reported on the results of a new poll from CROP. For the rst time in the polling rms history, the New Democrats were polling in rst place in the province. The Bloc had dropped into second. The political landscape in Quebec was about to be transformed.It was a shock. At least one pollster had seen these numbers before CROP did, but went back into the eld to double check before publishing such a bombshell. From that moment on, the New Demo-crats had all of the momentum and before long surpassed the Liberals in national sup-port. On election night, the NDP nished 12 points ahead of the Liberals, a party they were trailing by 10 points before the campaign had started.How much inuence did the stronger poll numbers for the NDP in Quebec have on the rest of the country? The surge in NDP support occurred between April 18 and 19 in the province, whereas the rest of Canada saw spikes in NDP support at different times. In Atlantic Canada and the Prairies, the NDPs numbers inched up slowly but consistently. In British Colum-bia, the uptick coincided with the one in Quebec. But in Ontario, the New Dem-ocrats only saw signicant growth after April 23, two days after the CROP poll was published in La Presse.According to Google Trends, more Cana-dians were searching for Ignatieff than they were Layton at the outset of the campaign. Searches for Ignatieff were more frequent than those for Layton straight through to April 18. On April 19, however, the two search terms were tied, with Layton being a slightly more popular search term on April 21, and signicantly so from April 26. This would seem to suggest that the polls may have had a positive effect on the NDPs SELF-FULFILLINGPROPHECYsupport in the rest of the country, but that the New Democrats were indeed seeing a shift before that CROP poll was published. It was a benecial cycle for the partyincreased support led to better polls, which led to even higher support. The media picked up on the NDPs newfound challenger status, and the campaign was transformed.Polls can have other effects on a political race, however. The lead the Liberals put together in the polls after Justin Trudeaus leadership victory undoubtedly boosted their fundraising efforts and their ability to attract good candidates. Would Adam Vaughan, who wrestled the riding of Trinity-Spadina away from the NDP in a 2014 byelection, have taken up the Liberal banner if the party was still mired in the low-20s in public support, or if the New Democrats were leading in the polls as they did in 2012?The 2014 provincial election campaign in Quebec was also heavily inuenced by polling. The Parti Qubcois identied the Charter of Values as a vote winner in part due to the polls that showed strong support for the measure. Indeed, the PQs re-election prospects improved only after the plans for the charter were announced.But that surge in the polls had conse-quences for the PQ. With the party poised to form a majority government, questions about its plans for a third sovereign-ty referendum suddenly be-came relevant. That the PQ was on track for victory helped con-vince Pierre-Karl Pladeau to take the plunge as a PQ candidate. The st he pumped into the air as he proclaimed his intention to help make Quebec a country was the rst act in the PQs disastrous campaign.The polls were there to record it, accu-rately tracking the PQs fall from grace. But the polls are not always on the money, as the 2013 provincial election in British Colum-bia demonstrated. Even there, however, the inuence of the polls can be strong. When asked in an Ipsos Reid survey conducted on election day, before anyone knew what the results would be, almost half of respondents said they expected the B.C. New Democrats to prevail. Only a tenth thought the B.C. Liberals would win, as they did. Green Party supporters, who might have otherwise cast a ballot for the NDP to keep the Liberals out of power, overwhelmingly expected the New Democrats to win.There can thus be both positive and negative aspects to the inuence of public opinion polls. The media, and many Cana-dians, would have missed a major story had polls not recorded the surge in the NDPs support in Quebec in 2011. The polls also encouraged important questions to be asked during the 2014 provincial campaign in the province. On the other hand, the polls may have unduly inuenced turnout and the choices made in the campaigns in British Columbia in 2013 and Alberta in 2012, when the relatively untested Wildrose Party was on track to unseat the Progressive Con-servatives, only to lose out on election day.But as long as polls are done accurately, they directly and indirectly provide the kind of information voters can choose to take into account when casting a ballot. Inuen-tial? You bet. But with great power...Power & Inf luence Winter 201521POLLStest.indd 1 14-12-19 2:46 PMThe media, and many Canadians, would have missed a major story had polls not recorded the surge in the NDPs support in Quebec in 2011.Power & Inf luence Winter 201522FOREIGNPOLICYAfter managing political survival throughout the toughest years of Afghanistan, there was a sense of relief within the Conservative government when the mission nally ended in March 2014. The Prime Ministers Ofce hoped to move military combat and procurement off the agenda ahead of the 2015 election.Prime Minister Stephen Harper was preparing for military downsizing in the fall of 2012 when he appointed low-key General Tom Lawson as chief of defence staff after a string of outspoken generals who didnt hesitate to voice their displeasure with the government. When Rob Nicholson replaced long-serving Defence minister Peter MacKay in 2013, his job was more to see cuts through than to inspire condence in the military, or the public. The 2014 budget laid out plans to cut defence spending by more than $3-billion in the years ahead.But the government received a rude awakening in the summer of 2014 when reports of mass atroci-ties began to emerge from areas of Iraq under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Already under pressure from NATO to increase its defence budget, the Harper government was asked to lend its support to the U.S.-led effort in Iraq.As opposition leader, Mr. Harper had advocated for Canada to join the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. More than a de-cade later, Prime Minister Harper nds himself in an Iraq mission he would have preferred to avoid. One senior government ofcial says that while the Prime Minis-ter was willing to contribute air support and training to the latest Iraq mission, he remains reluc-tant to have Canadian troops directly engaged in combat.In terms of using the military as a combat arm of Canadian foreign policy, hes evolved into a very suspicious, reluctant and cau-tious leader, says Thomas Juneau, a former strategic analyst for the Middle East at the Department of National Defence. The government now nds itself in the position of lending legitimacy to the U.S.-led mission in Iraq, he says.Canada has an obvious interest in seeing the Islamic State weakened and defeated, but its role is minimal. Whether were there or not will not change that outcome. Our interest is in being perceived as a good ally to the U.S. and the Europeans, says Mr. Juneau, now an assistant professor at the Uni-versity of Ottawas School of Public and International Affairs.Supporting castUltimately, its the Prime Minister who sets the direction of Canadas foreign policy in the Middle East, but hes backed by a supporting cast of political loyal-ists and bureaucratic pragmatists.Within the PMO, Roy Rempel, the Prime Ministers defence adviser, is responsible for providing Mr. Harper with strategic advice, and would have been consulted on the decision to join the latest mis-sion in Iraq. Hell continue to have input as time runs out on the gov-ernments initial, six-month com-mitment in Iraq and Mr. Harper is faced with deciding whether or not to extend Canadas mission ahead of the 2015 election.Another key PMO strategist is foreign affairs and trade ad-viser Meredith Lilly, who joined the PMO as a policy adviser for social affairs in 2012, and took over as foreign policy and trade adviser from Andrea van Vugt in 2013.Chief of staff Ray Novak and now former deputy chief Jenni Byrne also have the Prime Min-isters ear when it comes to the political side of foreign policy. Mr. Novak is very engaged in for-eign policy, generally, while Ms. Byrne, who recently returned to the Conservative headquarters, is on good terms with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior members of the Likud Party. When then-PCO foreign and defence policy adviser Chris-tine Hogan had to cancel her ad-vance trip to Israel in December 2013, it was Ms. Byrne who made the preparatory trip ahead of the Prime Ministers entourage visit-ing Israel and Jordan in 2014. Whos advising Harper on Iraq and the Middle EastContinued on Page 57BYCHRI SPLECASH21331. As opposition leader, Stephen Harper had advocated for Canada to join the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. More than a decade later, Prime Minister Harper nds himself in an Iraq mission he would have preferred to avoid. 2. Top advisers Roy Rempel, Meredith Lilly, and Richard Fadden. 3. Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, Employment Minister Jason Kenney, and Justice Minister Peter MacKay. P&I photos by Jake WrightThe Top 100MostPowerful & Influential People in Government & Politics2015Power & Inf luence Winter 201524PEOPLE1. Stephen Harper, Prime Minister2. Joe Oliver, Finance Minister3. John Baird, Foreign Afairs Minister4. Jason Kenney, Employment and Social Development Minister5. Janice Charette, Privy Council Clerk6. Jenni Byrne, Conservative Party National Campaign Manager7. Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party Leader8. Beverley McLachlin, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court9. Richard Fadden, National Security Adviser to the Prime Minister10. Thomas Mulcair, NDP Leader11. James Moore, Industry Minister12. Ray Novak, PMO Chief of Staf13. Paul Rochon, Deputy Minister of Finance14. Ed Fast, International Trade Minister15. Diane Finley, Public Works Minister16. Bob Paulson, RCMP Commissioner17. Daniel Nowlan, Chief of Staf to Finance Minister Joe Oliver18. Yaprak Baltacioglu, Treasury Board Secretary19. Laureen Harper, Prime Ministers Wife20. Gerald Butts, Principal Adviser to Justin Trudeau21. Gary Doer, Canadian Ambassador to the U.S.22. Sean Speer, PMO Special Adviser23. Kathleen Wynne, Premier of Ontario24. Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada25. Howard Anglin, PMO Deputy Chief of StafThe Top 25Power & Inf luence Winter 201525613-744-5500417ST LAURENT BLVDST LAURENT BLVDMICHAEL STTRIOLE STST LAURENTMALLQUEENSWAYWWWW.JAGUAROTTAWA.CAOT T AWAWWW.LANDROVEROTTAWA.CASt. Laurent Blvd. and Queensway+HST/MO.OT T AWAA T L A N D R O V E R O T T A W AITS LAND ROVER SEASON ITS LAND ROVER SEASON2015 RANGE ROVER EVOQUE$524%2.9Face this winter in style with the 2015 Range Rover Evoque. Whether exploring the city or adventuring out of town, the Range Rover Evoque empowers you to take on whatever winter may bring.Standard features include:9-speed ZF automatic transmission380-watt MeridianTM sound systemHeated leather steering wheelAward winning active driveline with terrain response 4 wheel drive$3,299 DOWN LEASE APR. 42 MONTHSNot all buyers will qualify for the lowest APR payment. For example, lease a vehicle with a value of $48,807 at 2.9% APR for up to 42 months with $1,799 down payment or equivalent trade-in: monthly payment is $598.99, total lease obligation is $26,956.58, optional buyout is $25,864.13. Aft er forgone $1,000 New Owners Incentive and $32 dealer discount. Some conditions apply and a mileage restriction of 56,000 km over 42 months applies. A charge of 20 cents per km over mileage restriction applies plus applicable taxes. and total to be repaid is $52,464. Down payment or equivalent trade-in may be required based on approved credit. Off ers include freight ($1,470), PDI ($495), Admin ($395), and AC Tax ($100). License, insurance, and all applicable taxes are extra.O F F E R E N D S J A N U A R Y 3 1s tWE ARE HERE1300 Michael St.test.indd 1 2014-12-18 4:27 PMBACKSTORYAs journalists, were told that every-one likes lists. We arent just told this, we notice it as consumers of news every day, lured by the same headlines that have most readers biting: Top 10 jobs that attract psychopaths, Top 10 places worse than Ottawa in January. This list takes a bit more care than your average click-bait but the reader is, of course, free to con-sume it as he or she chooses: as pleasurable infotainment, as contemptible pseudo-social science, or as grounds for adding a line to the CV and mailing copies of this magazine to relatives, friends, and enemies.This list is subjective but not whimsical. It was compiled through a series of off-the-record meetings with multiple sources who generously gave their time and expertise to talk about who will matter in 2015. One thing to notice while consulting for these lists is what Freud called the narcissism of minor differences. Opinions about those within the political tribe are often sharper than those from without. For this reason, it was important to consult staffers and insiders from different parties, not only to get the scoop on the inner dynamics but to check with an opposing party about whether people were being too harsh about their own. And this cuts across all forms of identity politics, which is why it was also important to consult a roughly equal number of men and women.The list is forward-looking, taking into ac-count a persons projected inuence in 2015, an important year in federal politics. We dont go as far as considering potential ministers in a future government, or future party leaders after the election falloutan exercise that would not only make us look foolish but would also make for dull readingbut those in positions to signicantly impact the 2015 federal elections outcome are especially inuential this year. Theres also a rather signicant federal budget this winter that will feed directly into the Conservative election platform and inuence the ballot question. Those involved in the budgets craftingfrom the nance minister and his key staffers to the PMO to the departmentalso have outsize representation on the list.Without further ado, we bring you the Eighth Annual Top 100 Most Powerful and In-uential list. We hope you enjoy the read. Please feel free to let us know either way.byMARKBURGESSHow the Top100 List is MadePower & Inf luence Winter 201526TOP25If 2013 was Prime Minister Stephen Harpers most mis-erable year of his nine and counting at 24 Sussex Dr., 2014 has seen a gradual, and some would say improb-able, rebound. The year began after a challenging fall in which neither a Throne Speech nor a Conservative Party convention in Harper territory managed to change the channel on the Senate scandal that had cost him political capital and his valuable chief of staff, Nigel Wright. Facing the daily QP pummelling from an invigorated Thomas Mulcair, speculation persisted that Mr. Harper would step aside early and let someone else reverse the partys fortunes in the 2015 federal election. That speculation certainly hasnt vanished but it is losing credibility. Mr. Harper spent the year playing the interna-tional strongman in Ukraine and Israel, and slowly moving the discussion on the Hill away from Senate expenses to justice, national security and the economy, much more comfortable territory for the incumbent. Since the Oct. 22 shootings at the National War Memorial and on Parlia-ment Hill, Mr. Harper has been rising steadily in the polls, and hes managed to make news by fullling 2011 election promises, most notably tax breaks for families at campaign-style events in the Greater Toronto Area, while the opposi-tion parties were left in Ottawa to answer questions about some very unpleasant sexual harassment allegations. And Harper has one big trick left: a budget early this year that will double as a campaign platform, one whose once-substantial surplus will largely be spoken for, hamstringing his opponents as they develop their own pitches for the hustings. In his best-case scenario, 2015 will be a year of history making, winning a rare, fourth-straight mandate; in the worst case, it will be the year when the unthinkable happenedlosing to a Trudeau.Prime MinisterStephen Harper 1Prime Minister Stephen Harper, pictured with the Aga Khan in Ottawa on Feb. 27, 2014. P&I photograph by Jake Wright Power & Influence Winter 201527Theunlikely messengerWith the Conservative election strategy bulls-eye on Justin Trudeau and the attempts to characterize him as the in-over-his-head risky leader who thinks the budgetwill balance itself, Joe Oliver,the occasionally brusqueex-banker, is a suitable foil.Everyones eyes are on Joe Oliver. Everyones hands are out, too. The former investment banker who took the top economic job in the country last March has become perhaps the most popular person in Ottawa in the lead-up to the next federal budget. His caucus colleagues approach him several times a day. On a ight home from Australia in November, two Air Canada ight attendants wanted to know more about his